Brexit: Destroyer of the Conservative Party?

Brendan Donnelly and John Stevens discuss the effects of Brexit on the internal cohesion of the Conservative Party. They argue that, while the referendum of 2016 was intended to heal Conservative divisions, Brexit has exacerbated divisions within the Party, probably irreparably.
SPEAKERS
Brendan Donnelly is the Director of the Federal Trust and a former Conservative MEP.
John Stevens is the Chair of the Federal Trust and an analyst and commentator on economic affairs.
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Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Nuclear Power Station, 01/09/2022.
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Пікірлер: 321

  • @axelcobelo991
    @axelcobelo9913 ай бұрын

    I like listening to the discussions here at the Federal Trust because it show me that there still are sane people in the UK, a country that I once so much admired and that has disappointed me so much as of late

  • @Lucretia9000

    @Lucretia9000

    3 ай бұрын

    Try living here, it's shit.

  • @michaelmouse4024
    @michaelmouse40243 ай бұрын

    The brexit Paradox is that any govt capable of delivering brexit wouldn't

  • @longhaulblue
    @longhaulblue3 ай бұрын

    Great discussion as always. This type of focussed discussion is an antidote to the relentless news cycle that makes people tune out.

  • @venenareligioest410
    @venenareligioest4103 ай бұрын

    “If capitalism depended on the intellectual quality of the Conservative party, it would end about lunchtime tomorrow.” Tony Benn

  • @andrewblewett2300
    @andrewblewett23003 ай бұрын

    Great discussion as always thank you. It raises the question of what on earth are centre-right one-nation tories supposed to do to secure their future up against a hard right local party membership and impending electoral doom? I’m not a Conservative voter and never have been but I take the view that the radicalisation of the Conservative Party is a disaster for Britain, starting with excessive attachment to austerity and then to Brexit - which are linked of course. Neither policy is now popular. My sense is that the Tories need to split and the sooner the better, so they can slug this out in opposition and we can hope that a new sensible Tory party rises from the ashes. The Labour Party under Starmer is happy to take the centrist mantle and meanwhile the Tories survived the Corn Law repeal, they’ll survive this. Far right Tory politics needs to be put back into its box along with Powellism and Faragism etc. I entirely agree that the key to the future is some form of economic recovery - the two components to which are European revival and green transition/recovery. The make Brexit work concept is dead in the water. The Tories have forgotten that the whole point of the Atlantic alliance is not love of America, it’s tying the US into protecting continental Europe from various tyrants - which is in danger of becoming existential for the EU and us. Another point here but it seems to me that the UK could yet trade active participation and leadership in an anti-Putin alliance for a soft re-entry into the EU or at least access to markets on favourable terms, although it may be the window for this is narrow and it would require deft and courageous management which may or may not be available

  • @ganrimmonim

    @ganrimmonim

    3 ай бұрын

    Unsurprisingly as a LibDem who oftern lends his vote to Labour (not always mind) we need PR. that way the three or so parties that make up the Conservatives and Labour parties and the two which make up my own can go their own ways. And people can vote for whom they actually want.

  • @ravenuk2880
    @ravenuk28803 ай бұрын

    It was always going to fail, the Tories couldnt run a bath.

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    Nobody could run the Brexit bath. It was always condemned to choke up the pipes of British politics.

  • @perjensen3047
    @perjensen30473 ай бұрын

    As the lyrics goes; “it was supposed to be so easy.”.

  • @michaelgoss9606
    @michaelgoss96063 ай бұрын

    Thank you, a very good and interesting talk.

  • @InakiCampo
    @InakiCampo3 ай бұрын

    Bojo has sowed the seeds of chaos

  • @JohnHollyoak-vx6pn

    @JohnHollyoak-vx6pn

    3 ай бұрын

    All he’s good at is sowing his own seed.

  • @ganrimmonim
    @ganrimmonim3 ай бұрын

    I'm Jewish (and okay, I'm a leftleaning centerist, so my vote was never up for grabs). However, the GOP racism is making me feel unhappy and unsafe. Okay, I don't appear to be at the top of the racist list, but I have no doubt that I am on it. I'm not sure what 'woke' is the last time I was called. Woke was when I was talking about having a chat with a police officer (I hadn't even knowingly used the term) rather than policeman. We seriously don't want to import this from the US.

  • @davidhoward4715

    @davidhoward4715

    3 ай бұрын

    When someone calls himself "leftleaning" and whines about "woke" we can be sure he's lying. Why are right-wingers so averse to truth these days?

  • @childoftheuniverse2644
    @childoftheuniverse26443 ай бұрын

    Today's UK is a s**t show with the brexiturds in the main roles.

  • @pedrapioan4201
    @pedrapioan42013 ай бұрын

    Well I'm not a fan of the conservatives, not an out and out enemy either I am aware that there were many decent people who were small c conservatives. But this current lot are beyond the pale!!! 🤢 So hopefully Brexit will do for them as it undoubtedly has for the four Nations & Kernow🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 N- 🇮🇪 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

  • @kevinengland7444

    @kevinengland7444

    3 ай бұрын

    'Small c' conservative...you mean a semi-conservative. A PARTIAL conservative. A DILUTED conservative. A sugar-free non-alcoholic conservative. Not a full pint. In other words a CENTRIST. This is exactly the problem. Both parties striving for the centre ground trying to disguise what they really are resulting in there being no real distinction between the two main parties to such an extent that no-one can tell the difference because there's virtually no difference. The result of that is mediocre politics of management and no direction. No vision. No dynamism. No conviction politics. No destination. No honesty.

  • @sabinenadal8470
    @sabinenadal84703 ай бұрын

    Brexit could also destroy the Labour party in the years to come

  • @marksykes5434

    @marksykes5434

    3 ай бұрын

    Did you vote for brexit & the tories in 2019 ?

  • @robduncan599

    @robduncan599

    3 ай бұрын

    Brexit is and will be clear it becomes the destroyer of not just Conservative, but Labour and Lib-Dem. Along with the country itself? NI and or Scotland's Secession ends UK! The Dissolution of United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Labour with it's 'Make Brexit Work ' and give us a ' Better Brexit ' as they ' embrace Brexit ' , will ultimately fail . Meanwhile Lib-Dem stuck on the Brexit fence with their ' whatever you do don't mention the B word ' philosophy puts all 3 Brexit parties in a Brexit conundrum. No doubt should Labour win the next election how do they tackle the isolationist Brexit baton passed on ? A downward spiral is inevitable. Until NI secession. Scotland will escape the Brexit Empire. Brexit will destroy Conservative, Labour and Lib-Dem, along with the State of United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Even if Conservative, Labour or Lib-Dem have a change of heart decades of decline will pass until the Dissolution of United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

  • @JohnStevens-gp7ge

    @JohnStevens-gp7ge

    3 ай бұрын

    I fear your analysis is very plausible, though the sheer scale of the threat of the downward spiral which you anticipate could bring forth a political force capable of returning the country to the EU sufficiently rapidly to head off a disaggregation of Britain, though not probably now of the whole of the UK. The speed with which public opinion, without any political leadership whatever has turned against Brexit, albeit that such lack of leadership means there is no very clear understanding of what rejoining would actually entail (eg the euro, Ever Closer Union etc.) does give some grounds for hope, if not optimism. @can599

  • @mikewilson8513

    @mikewilson8513

    3 ай бұрын

    Well its destroying the country as we speak. Brexit is just toxic on so many levels.

  • @Purple_flower09

    @Purple_flower09

    3 ай бұрын

    ​@@robduncan599 I'm guessing you're not in Scotland. If you were you'd know that the independence movement is at a low point. Brexit has not so far led to any increase a in support for independence. Rather it's encouraged people to realise that making such a huge decision on the basis of a simple majority in a referendum is simply stupid. A supermajority ought to have been required for Brexit as well.

  • @ganrimmonim
    @ganrimmonim3 ай бұрын

    What's awful is years after the vote, and nobody can claim the Brexit is going well. People still describe themselves as Brexiteers or Remaineers. Myself included.

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    Brexit has convulsed British politics. It’s not surprising that it still arouses continuing controversy.

  • @chriselliott726

    @chriselliott726

    3 ай бұрын

    Perhaps we should think of ourselves as those who tried to save the country and those whose stupidity, arrogance and racism led to the destruction of the county.

  • @ganrimmonim

    @ganrimmonim

    3 ай бұрын

    @brendandonnelly1853 oh absolutely I wasn't expecting it to go well being a Remainer, but wasn't expecting it to be quite this bad or for our whole political system to be on the line.

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    The political degradation of Brexit has been worse even than its economic damage.

  • @jons9721

    @jons9721

    3 ай бұрын

    Brexit was education/class war. The division between the well travelled educated and the small town, poorly educated who just want a local job in the factories/mines is just irreconcilable. It was always there but now that is all politics is. Two tribes that utterly despise each other

  • @saltydog584
    @saltydog5843 ай бұрын

    Those that ride tigers are likely to be eaten when they fall off.

  • @Gargamel-n-Rudmilla
    @Gargamel-n-Rudmilla3 ай бұрын

    Our multicultural society is the direct result of colonilism and slavery both of which were the disires and wishes of the British monarchy, the elite and Goverment . Then came the second world war which saw the great need for Britain to be rebuilt and Britian turned to the colonies for workers. Thus again at the express wish of the Government and consecutive Governments at that. The time had to come when even the most hardest racist in Britain had to recognise that these immegrants had put down roots and had rights and one such right was natralisation and citizenship. There were a few who had alway planned to use and abuse and then disgard workers of the colonies by sending them back which was the view of a few politicians including Mosely, who is a hero of Farage, which makes perfect sense. So my point is that very few jounalists and politicians seem to recognise that British multiculturalism was designed and desired and mandated for, it was not shoved down the throat of Britian by the EU or US. So take ownerahip of it, warts and all. Trying to approach it as if it was some kind of imposition is laughable and sounds like buyers remorse more than anything.

  • @kevonslims7269
    @kevonslims72693 ай бұрын

    The conservatives used to also have members who knew what they were doing, they were statements who knew how the world operated, look a braverman, mogg, badenoch, patel and tell me theses people have any idea how governance work?

  • @modelcitizen2028

    @modelcitizen2028

    3 ай бұрын

    The lesson the above learnt from Boris and his cronies was: no need to actually achieve anything, just talk tough and get favourable coverage in the right-wing media was all that's required.

  • @davidpaterson2309
    @davidpaterson23093 ай бұрын

    Senior Tories (Heseltine, Major, Haig, Cameron) for years predicted that divisions over “Europe” would be the death of the party if they couldn’t find a resolution. The right of the party (ERG particularly) said this was just a scare story to keep the party in line. Turns out it was true. The root cause of all of this is the failure of the British ruling class (90% Tories) to come to terms with the loss of Empire. “Lost an empire and not yet found a role” as US Secretary of State Dean Acheson aptly described it in the 1960s.

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    The inability of the British ruling class to come to terms with a new European role is perhaps a consequence of the traumatic loss of Empire.

  • @davidpaterson2309

    @davidpaterson2309

    3 ай бұрын

    @@brendandonnelly1853 I think that’s right. Up till even 1960 the penny hadn’t quite dropped for some of them and they regarded what came afterwards as a humiliation; having to negotiate - as mere equals - with the French and even the Dutch and Belgians? “How the mighty are fallen” was how they perceived it, not positively, just second prize in a race the Americans had won. And some longed - still do - to bask in that reflected glory, thus MacMillan’s telling phrase that we were “Greece to America’s Rome” (maybe not a coincidence Johnson was a classicist?).

  • @MRW515

    @MRW515

    3 ай бұрын

    Nonsense, Brexit was voted for by the working class

  • @davidpaterson2309

    @davidpaterson2309

    3 ай бұрын

    @@MRW515 “Voted for” isn’t quite the same thing as “promoted by”, or “longed for” is it? I don’t doubt that the 2016 vote was largely working class. But if you look at nearly any popular polls for the previous 20 years you will see that “the working class” rarely cited EU membership among their top concerns, whereas a large faction of the Tory elite nursed that grievance for 50 years and eventually got their way.

  • @MRW515

    @MRW515

    3 ай бұрын

    @@davidpaterson2309 I was in a South Yorkshire factory about 15 years ago (installing some electrics) and the manager said the company (who had received a grant to locate the factory to this area with a lot of poverty) was only going to employ cheap labour from eastern Europe, they were not going to employ anyone from the town. It is the working class people who could see how cheap labour from the EU was taking their jobs who voted for Brexit.

  • @robtyman4281
    @robtyman42813 ай бұрын

    I would have thought this was pretty obvious by now. 🤔🤷

  • @PlanofBattle
    @PlanofBattle3 ай бұрын

    America also has federalism and a strong disposition against centralisation. Americans would say that there is little economic freedom without political freedom. The Tories are foremost a party of centralisation of political power. Labour are similar. Americans also value their rights. Many Tories are opposed to the very concept. So the idea that the Tories favour a UK like the US is simply not credible. It is as laughable as those who felt Britain could become Singapore upon Thames without truly understanding how Singapore truly functions.

  • @blackdogbarking
    @blackdogbarking3 ай бұрын

    lets hope so, certainly should be.

  • @user-ol6rd7pl5t
    @user-ol6rd7pl5t3 ай бұрын

    Hoist with their own petard.

  • @kevinengland7444

    @kevinengland7444

    3 ай бұрын

    Great Britain must be an independent nation state.

  • @user-ol6rd7pl5t

    @user-ol6rd7pl5t

    3 ай бұрын

    @@kevinengland7444 Independence for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is the only good that will ever come from Brexit.

  • @Purple_flower09

    @Purple_flower09

    3 ай бұрын

    It's not "hoisted with". That wouldn't make any sense. It's "hoisted by". You're welcome.

  • @Purple_flower09

    @Purple_flower09

    3 ай бұрын

    ​@@user-ol6rd7pl5t Brexit has not caused any increased support for independence in Scotland so far. None at all.

  • @user-ol6rd7pl5t

    @user-ol6rd7pl5t

    3 ай бұрын

    @@Purple_flower09 It has here in Wales, at least in my house it has, I hadn't ever considered it before Brexit but I'm absolutely certain about because of everything that's happened since.

  • @ianfromthephilippines
    @ianfromthephilippines3 ай бұрын

    Brexit only happened Boris wanted to become what ever is the highest position available. The point was not to win but lose and challenge David cameron for party leader. The failed successfully

  • @ReedoTV

    @ReedoTV

    3 ай бұрын

    Boris failed at failing lol. At least it's on-brand

  • @mikewilson8513

    @mikewilson8513

    3 ай бұрын

    Quite correct. Boris didnt give a stuff about brexit. For him it was just a means to become PM.

  • @hohohohehehe6910
    @hohohohehehe6910Ай бұрын

    I'll never forget the Tories claiming that leaving the EU would mean that they could invest more money into the NHS. Then they cheered in parliament straight after the referendum when they managed to pass a bill to ban the NHS from getting a pay rise for another 5 years.

  • @joea4234
    @joea42343 ай бұрын

    Insightful and plausible course for our turbulent politics. Great discussion.

  • @chrisengland5523
    @chrisengland55233 ай бұрын

    Interesting. As a former Tory voter and strong Remainer, I now have no idea who to vote for in the forthcoming election. All the sensible Tory MP's such as Dominic Grieve, Rory Stewart and many others were either driven out of the Tory part or left of their own accord after the referendum. And there's no way I'm voting for the idiots that are left behind. Labour is also out of the question, as is Reform, who under their previous name, UKIP, were largely responsible for the fiasco in the first place. So that leaves the Lib Dems, who really don't have much hope of achieving anything. What is needed is a party whose manifesto declares that the number one priority is to get back into the EU or at least to join the Single Market or Customs Union. They would get my vote and I suspect, the votes of many others who are fed up seeing the UK going down the pan due to Brexit.

  • @timseytiger9280

    @timseytiger9280

    3 ай бұрын

    No what is needed is electoral reform, to a pr system. That will allow Labour and the Tory to split into smaller more cohesive parties, giving you a chance to vote for a politician you actually want. It might just happen under Starmer, although I'm not holding my breath.

  • @chrisengland5523

    @chrisengland5523

    3 ай бұрын

    @@timseytiger9280 PR has it's merits and is probably a fairer system, but it also has a major disadvantage in that it leads to hung parliaments, such as we see all the time in Italy. And the problem with hung parliaments is they can never get anything done, except through underhand deals - you vote for my policy that I know you don't like and in return, I'll vote for yours. Not ideal.

  • @timseytiger9280

    @timseytiger9280

    3 ай бұрын

    @chrisengland5523 Then don't adopt Italy's model. There are plenty of pr systems that lead to stable representative governments, that last years. Even Italy at its worst hasn't had a pm lasting less than a lettuce. Maybe, think why you've introjected a Tory anti pr canard, when the UKs first past the post system isn't working for you.

  • @jontalbot1
    @jontalbot13 ай бұрын

    I would love to imagine that the Tories have been destroyed by Brexit but they are the most successful political party in Western Europe of the last 100 years. They have an electoral system that delivers government for them two thirds of the time. The only reason they fight amongst themselves is because power in Britain is mostly to do with who is leading the Tories

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    The past ten years have spawned a culture of division and ideological conflict which is has no parallel since at least the First World War. The past hundred years cannot be taken as a guide.

  • @markwelch3564

    @markwelch3564

    3 ай бұрын

    Maybe if we still had the likes of Howard Macmillian, we'd have a Tory party that could go another 100 years But we have the likes of Johnson and Truss instead

  • @modelcitizen2028

    @modelcitizen2028

    3 ай бұрын

    Yes the Tories have traditionally been successful, but Boris expelled many competent politicians from the party and brexit gave them a feeling of invincibility and carelessness - and that's all coming back to bite them big-time!

  • @jontalbot1

    @jontalbot1

    3 ай бұрын

    @@modelcitizen2028 Boris has not expelled anyone. And you do not understand the Labour Party’s capacity to self destruct. Who is its most successful leader? Blair, he won three elections. Result? Hated by most Labour members.They prefer losers like Corbyn and Miliband. You already hear the Starmer haters cos he will win the next election. Their numbers in the party will increase as he fails to deliver heaven on earth

  • @ab-ym3bf

    @ab-ym3bf

    3 ай бұрын

    "The most successful political party of western Europe " is just a other ignorant English claim in the category "world beating". You can't even begin to compare European parties when the UK has a 2 party elected dictatorship where the rest of western Europa had actual democracy under PR.

  • @nicolass7102
    @nicolass71023 ай бұрын

    Brexit disaster

  • @CasperChicago
    @CasperChicago3 ай бұрын

    The UK has my sympothy,...we both have conservatives embracing cultural issues and Tax Cuts as being "the solution to our problems". With all sincerity, we in the US and you in the UK should be concerned more about public health care, our children's education that will allow us to create companies like MicroSoft, Tesla, Intel, Google, etc. We both are wasting precious time & money fighting our "fellow citizens" rather than fighing the highly subsidized Chinese high tech industry 👍🏾

  • @hilaryjohnson2386
    @hilaryjohnson23863 ай бұрын

    A Brexit benefit.Found one at last.

  • @PlanofBattle
    @PlanofBattle3 ай бұрын

    Gentlemen, this is an illuminating discourse. My question to you both is whether you believe the issue of replacing FPTP with some form of PR would be an obstacle to a Conservative and Reform merger? It benefits the latter but in my opinion weakens the former.

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    Probably not. A merged Conservative/Reform Party would probably have, or at least initially hope to have, enough potential voters to be a beneficiary of FPTP. 0:07

  • @timsimmons5953
    @timsimmons59533 ай бұрын

    So the Muslims are going to vote Reform or the Tories?

  • @johnburrows3385

    @johnburrows3385

    3 ай бұрын

    No

  • @gohfi
    @gohfi3 ай бұрын

    „Closer to Europe“? Are you sure you realize on which continent you’re living? You still think you left the EU and can rejoin with ease at any time you like. What an exceptionalistic bullshit! 😂🤦‍♂️

  • @powerjets3512

    @powerjets3512

    3 ай бұрын

    You really hate young people don't you. Or the Scots etc. Who are you addressing with this statement?

  • @matthewcook9404

    @matthewcook9404

    3 ай бұрын

    English exceptionalism at its finest. 😂😂

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    Nothing in the video implies that it will easy to rejoin the EU. We are simply speculating about the willingness of a future British government to try to do so. The phrase “moving closer to Europe” is shorthand for “moving closer to the EU.” The Trust does not often use this shorthand and perhaps in order to avoid misunderstandings 😮😮it would be better to avoid it altogether.

  • @AlexGys9

    @AlexGys9

    3 ай бұрын

    The Brits quite often use "Europe" as a shorthand for the European mainland. While probably unintentional, it does create a strong impression that they do not consider themselves part of Europe. Words do matter.

  • @frankoneill5675

    @frankoneill5675

    3 ай бұрын

    @@brendandonnelly1853 You have said in previous videos that the UK could join the EU through interim steps of SM and CU access, even though this route doesn't exist. Acknowledging that joining the EU is a long and difficult process, a process all applicant countries must go through, shows a better understanding of your situation, at least

  • @tomthumb2361
    @tomthumb23613 ай бұрын

    How more lacking in political astuteness and understanding of the nature of Parliamentary agency could you be than the hapless Mr Cameron? It was obvious to me and people like me that holding a referendum when the party in power was not united behind one side or other of the question would lead to a rudderless and wallowing ship of state should people vote for change. P does not have agency, only an entity within it that has majority support. Attempting major change without a P majority is impossible. On that basis, the only solid position was to continue with the status quo.

  • @ausbrum

    @ausbrum

    3 ай бұрын

    Pretty stupid to run a referendum without putting in place the rules which usually govern referenda: a two thirds majority in favour, and a majority in the countries which make up the UK

  • @kevinengland7444

    @kevinengland7444

    3 ай бұрын

    Stop it with the 'P' shit. If you can't be bothered to write then don't bloody well begin writing in the first place!

  • @Gargamel-n-Rudmilla
    @Gargamel-n-Rudmilla3 ай бұрын

    Well foget about America. If the GoP get back in with the Presidency then the UK is fucked. If Biden gets back in we are still fucked but a bit less.

  • @davidhoward4715

    @davidhoward4715

    3 ай бұрын

    Let me guess... Lord Putin will save us.

  • @majormoolah5056
    @majormoolah50563 ай бұрын

    Certainly, when you look at how UK followed US into a war in the Middle East, you see how the old strategy of being the special helper of the Americans is not working anymore.

  • @colinwishbone4437

    @colinwishbone4437

    3 ай бұрын

    That's what BLAIR DID,AND STARTED THE ERIPTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST ,WARS,MASS EMIGRATION, TERRORISM ! YES THE LABOUR PARTY HAVE A LOT TO ANSWER FOR

  • @hohohohehehe6910

    @hohohohehehe6910

    Ай бұрын

    If you want to reep the benefits of being in the club, sometimes you have to help your allies.

  • @ulfosterberg9116

    @ulfosterberg9116

    10 күн бұрын

    ​@@colinwishbone4437uk has been US poodle since suez. Only in the old days uk had some weight and was therefore treated with some respect. A dog is a dog but when it gets old and can't run he is less of a partner.

  • 3 ай бұрын

    Fingers crossed.

  • @nigelhardy7218
    @nigelhardy72183 ай бұрын

    Thank you both for another interesting discussion. I particularly agree on one or two things. Labour's good electoral fortune will quite likely come under scrutiny once people have realised that it really didn't have anything exciting to offer in 2024. That could be mid-term. I think it's also very likely that events (dear boy, events) could force Labour into a European direction when the economy refuses to improve for example. It is a depressingly familiar fact that politicians allow events to move their hand in their preferred direction rather than speak from conviction. As for the Tories, a post-election schism is now inevitable, and an extreme rightward trajectory appears to be the path. How long could that remain I wonder without a centre-right movement rising up again, particularly if the 2028/29 GE sets Europe as the UK's future path. Maybe we are moving towards electoral reform in the next decade with all this political turbulence. A fracturing of old party loyalties will seriously worry Labour as it looks to a second term when people ask what Starmer stands for.

  • @saltydog584

    @saltydog584

    3 ай бұрын

    Previous new centre parties have failed in the past. The SDP won some by elections but all but one of the Labour MPs that defected to it lost their seats at in the 1983 election. The Change Party was wiped out in 2017.

  • @nigelhardy7218

    @nigelhardy7218

    3 ай бұрын

    @@saltydog584 Such is the ruthlessness of FPTP that any new entry is short-lived. However, the breakdown in support for the duopoly suggests that Labour will have to embrace PR in the next few years if only for its own survival. I reckon the leadership knows it's inevitable but hasn't quite accepted it yet.

  • @saltydog584

    @saltydog584

    3 ай бұрын

    @@nigelhardy7218 Although replacing a party from the centre has failed replacement from the left or right wing is possible. The Liberal Party was replaced by Labour in the 20's and 30's (as a consequence there was a decade and a half of Tory governments) and Reform may replace the Conservatives over the next 2 or 3 elections.

  • @nigelhardy7218

    @nigelhardy7218

    3 ай бұрын

    @@saltydog584We live in dangerous times and I hope Reform does not replace the Tories, that would be awful for the country. I fear that Labour disappoints the country and gives oxygen to the populists in 2028/29 election.

  • @saltydog584

    @saltydog584

    3 ай бұрын

    @@nigelhardy7218 Me too. Other examples of the outer wing replacing a centre party are: Sinn Fein replacing the SDLP and the DUP replacing the UUP.

  • @charrogate
    @charrogate3 ай бұрын

    The 🇪🇺 conundrum exists across poltical extremes of both Tory and Labour parties supported by the antiquated 🇬🇧 🗳️ twin dominant party voting system as the seating arrangement is designed in parliament 🤔

  • @saltydog584

    @saltydog584

    3 ай бұрын

    Not the seating plan, it's 'first past the post'.

  • @robbiegrant4977
    @robbiegrant49773 ай бұрын

    Maybe it is but they caused it through their infighting

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    The infighting began in the 1990s, when the Conservative Party rejected Ken Clarke as leader because he was too pro-European. The factionalism has never ceased since.

  • @Jamal-Ahmed786
    @Jamal-Ahmed7863 ай бұрын

    Brexit destroyed the country, but mpre so the tory party

  • @maccagrabme

    @maccagrabme

    2 ай бұрын

    That's only because it wasnt fully implemented and they did their best to scupper it.

  • @justsayen2024
    @justsayen20243 ай бұрын

    I think what needs asked has conservative/Reform evolved to the Con-form party? And if they do come back into Power after Labour will Parliament survive?

  • @stephenfarthing3819
    @stephenfarthing38192 ай бұрын

    That crisis has had a very detrimental situation! For everything. The Conservatives don't have any central focus on what needs to be done. Unfortunately it has led to a possibility of a scism between the sensible side and the Neo Conservative faction of it. Over 60 MP's have reesigned and will be standing down at this General Election. Trump has brought about one complication in the UK - and you're right about that! Racialism has become most pronounced and the problem is a complication which has emerged recently. I take no sides with religion with politics - the two should remain critically separate! The Conservatives will scism! And you discount the Liberal Democrats who might be replacing them as the main opposition in the House of Commons. I regard Reform UK as a niggling nuisance. I doubt their influence will make a difference! Because in many seats, the Liberal Democrats are better placed. Reform UK will only let in more candidates of the Liberal Democrats into Parliament.

  • @nicolass7102
    @nicolass71023 ай бұрын

    Brexit mess

  • @matthewcook9404
    @matthewcook94043 ай бұрын

    Oh sweet Jesus, yes please.

  • @jpnedlo7229
    @jpnedlo72293 ай бұрын

    And the U.K.

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    It has certainly caused instability within the UK. Whether it will lead to the end of the UK is very difficult to predict.

  • @indricotherium4802
    @indricotherium48023 ай бұрын

    You might hope Labour will adopt a europhile position; it might be slightly more economically rational to rejoin than it already is now. But you have to ask whether 90% of the Westminster political class - the English-ist bit - wants to get back into bed with the EU. And whether it will be any more rational then than it is now.

  • @brendandonnelly1853

    @brendandonnelly1853

    3 ай бұрын

    Rationality will certainly prevail eventually. But nobody can be sure how long it will take and how many cul-de-sacs will need to be explored in the interim.

  • @indricotherium4802

    @indricotherium4802

    3 ай бұрын

    @@brendandonnelly1853 : I'd like to agree with whatever optimism your view embodies, Brendan, but I see the analogy more like the two parties are marching briskly off abreast on on a two-lane highway with the EU getting further and further away in time and distance behind. I see no evidence , sadly, that for them the concept of the sunlit uplands is greatly diminished by experience nor that any kind of road block or disaster up ahead is going to cause them to turn round and march back undoing all the mileage they've made. More likely they'll be on sharp look out for the as yet unknown things falling by the wayside they can harness to keep them steering straight ahead. They're enthusiastic only for the people to become acquiescent to a non-EU future and fall in behind them.

  • @Purple_flower09

    @Purple_flower09

    3 ай бұрын

    ​​​@@indricotherium4802 it would take a very long time for the UK to become fit to make an application. That alone makes it less likely to happen because much else will change during that time so it might no longer make sense to do it. And of course nothing is being done to make the UK fit to apply and there is nobody to vote for that pledges to do it.

  • @indricotherium4802

    @indricotherium4802

    3 ай бұрын

    @@Purple_flower09 : I would only take issue with your first sentence. The rest is the unfolding future which won't just happen as a state of the world but will be actively shaped and developed by the two main parties. If the will to Rejoin was in the political class, which it clearly isn't, they could make it happen in no more time than it took to leave (and that could have taken half the time had Leave won, say, a 60:40 majority mandate rand not a squeaky 52:48 one).

  • @andreascassinides2660
    @andreascassinides26603 ай бұрын

    Another Brexit success story.

  • @kevinengland7444
    @kevinengland74443 ай бұрын

    There is nothing wrong with the concept of Brexit. I waited 30 years for it. However, the Tories have exposed a dereliction of duty in how they handled it. Anti-EU pressure was longstanding. Cameron didn't formulate contingency plans for leaving. It is the responsibility of every government to construct contingency plans. Cameron and the Tories were so myopically out of touch they never recognised that what was staring them in the face was actually likely to happen - Brexit. Cameron allowed a referendum on something he made no preparation for and then walked away afterwards. The very summit of political reckless ineptitude. Further, Cameron/May/Johnson negotiated with the EU not from a position of weakness [UK leading NATO in Europe/EU pension payments] but with cowardice and incompetence. Theresa May was actually utterly incompetent. I accept the consequences of leaving the EU. Great Britain should be an independent country. Australia [stuck down there so far away from the Western world can do it], Norway and Japan can do it, so can we. There actually IS more to life than the economy and Remainers usually totally ignore that concept. No-one ever speaks about how European the British had become in culture and how being part of the EU became so much more than a trading club. The EU had its tentacles in every aspect of British life. I did not grow up double kissing people when greeting them...and such things are not symbols of an outward looking nation. They are symbols of a willingness to sacrifice what you are by way of supplication. Britain must, and will, adjust and we must eternally fight anyone willing to trade our independence for corporate advantage and an easier route to owning a villa in Provence.

  • @gdwlaw5549

    @gdwlaw5549

    3 ай бұрын

    Many peoles live shave been ruined by Brexit! Nothing has turned out how the far right planned....oh, they still make billions with offshore acccounts.

  • @dogglebird4430

    @dogglebird4430

    3 ай бұрын

    @@gdwlaw5549 Brexit was never a right v left issue. The Tories supported remaining in the EU while many leading socialists were opposed to it (like Tony Benn, Michael Foot, Mick Lynch, Arthur Scargill - even Tony Blair was originally in favour of leaving the EEC). Fortunately, Brexit is irreversible.

  • @chrisbirmingham5132

    @chrisbirmingham5132

    3 ай бұрын

    It's not clear how pretending that the UK had a strong hand in the Brexit negotiations would have improved the outcome. What were May and Johnson supposed to say: Give us all the benefits of membership or we'll cut off the pension contributions? France withdrew from NATO at one point in order to assert its sovereignty. It also did much to preserve its culture from Americanization. The UK has never shown any appetite for either of these things (so far as I'm aware, UK nuclear weapons still can't be used without US consent) and yet somehow the economic suicide of Brexit is supposed to be about culture and independence. Not even the people who were arguing for those things appeared to believe their own words. It is, in any event, far more likely that they were motivated by the City's campaign to escape financial regulation, the hyper-capitalist desire for a US-style economy or even Russia's plans for a weakened Europe. All the guff about sovereignty and British culture made about as much sense as the concern for UK fishing or farming, which, as we have seen since, never had any substance to it.

  • @dogglebird4430

    @dogglebird4430

    3 ай бұрын

    @chrisbirmingham5132 Sovereignty is guff, is it? I wonder if the people of Taiwan would agree with that. Sovereignty, or the right to self-determination, is what underpins democracy.

  • @stevecoppin6396

    @stevecoppin6396

    3 ай бұрын

    i loved being in the eu , the ability to jump on a plane at 6 am work in three or four countries in as many days , then return home with very little hassle , is a wonderful thing

  • @richardkemp5550
    @richardkemp55503 ай бұрын

    Fascinating analysis.