Welcome! This channel is dedicated to the art of handicapping the Triple Crown, Breeders Cup, and most of the major stakes races that comprise the racing season. We will cover the prep races leading up to the Run for the Roses, The Kentucky Derby, with insight and analysis of the contenders as they make their way towards the first Saturday in May. In addition, we will provide selections and wagering strategies for the unique opportunities that only thoroughbred racing can provide. In addition to increasing flat-bet profit, and no less importantly, we hope to educate newcomers and foster passion for the Sport of Kings. It is our hope to create a community centered around friendly discussion and debate to improve our mutual experience in thoroughbred racing where we can all be RIGHT AT THE WIRE. Thanks for stopping by and we hope to see you regularly!
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So you're knocking Mystik Dan for overuse while STG is doing the same. Is that right? I've heard 60% of the pundits dismissed all the horses that ran at Churchill and YET the top 3 at the Preakness all ran at Churchill. What happened to your Tuscan Gold who had loads of rest? It's the Fight in the horse that matters. For 2 minutes, the meanest horse wins.
Plus 7 Sierra Leone!???! He’s not flightline.
Alex, u gave same grade to honor Marie as seize the grey? Are u forgetting seize the grey is actually a stalker? And I’ll never take 9/5 on a remsen horse.
Alex, u gave same grade to honor Marie as seize the grey? Are u forgetting seize the grey is actually a stalker? And I’ll never take 9/5 on a remsen horse.
Good !
Great Show 👍
Looking forward to your final Belmont analysis.
You could also brush those teeth that’s always a safe bet
😂😂😂😂
The intro music on all these videos is super loud compared to your voice Great show
I like Protective. He was trapped on the rail in the Peter Pan but once he got out he was closing
She bounced a little bit in the Oaks on figures, and still won easy. If she comes back to a new top, she can win the Belmont
Nest
RIGHT YOU ARE! FORGOT ABOUT HER!
I wouldn’t be surprised if he placed but would be if he won ,he might have a chance if the pace was slow but that’s doubtful in the Belmont.
Antiquarian looked much the best going away.
Imma still use him on my tickets
My fault
LOL
No sound
This Horse Has Been Nothing Short of Impressive...He Has Been Visually Superior in 2 Starts From 2 Totally Different Trips and Effortlessly Handled The Stretch Out...Nobody is Claiming This Horse is Secretariat But Open Your Eyes...Mindframe is Talented
This horse is doing all the right things leading into the Belmont; who's riding him is the ONLY question mark !
John Velazquez will be riding him
@@IIifixbotsII Nice 👍!
The age of aquarius ♒....
Mindframe has done nothing great, embarrassing overmatched foes after getting the easiest trip possible on an off track. C'mon. Mindframe will not go with Fierceness for long.
No one in this 3 year old class to date has done anything exceptional or great. Both the Derby and Preakness were slow races and the consensus of speed figs handed out for those races prove it. Maybe someone from this group turns into an exceptional horse, but as of right now this is arguably the slowest overall group of 3 year olds we have seen in 2 decades. 😀
@@rcg9573 Sierra Leone & 2yo champ Fierceness are tops in this class. 'Leone is two noses from being undefeated. Consistency is class.
Most Maiden Events are Not Strong...The Eye Test Does Count...First Time Starting He Comes From Well off Pace and Dominates...Next Out Runs Field off Their Feet From Post 11 on Lead...Hand Ridden Both Starts With a bit of Encouraging and Dominating...No Idea if He Will be a TOP Classic Distance Horse But He Certainly Looks Like a Horse That Will Have Success in This Sport
What are his four Beyers figures?
Don’t want any parts of this horse. Give me batten down over this horse!
Will the Bellatoga have an * next to this year's winner? 😅
Will be interesting to See if He Shows That Same Energy if He Does Not Get The Lead in Belmont....He Coasted up Front Uncontested Against a Bad Field Going 10F....Belmont Scenario is Going to be a Whole Different Ballgame....But Hey This is The Great Bill Mott
Why is Sierra Leone being referred to as if he's the bench mark of this class? He cannot run straight in stretch and I doubt the stewards are gna let him get away with him running into horses like he did in derby and running two horses off the road in Bluegrass. He is just gna have to beat me bc no way I'm taking some short price on him.
He wants to run all over the other horse 🐎🐎 bad 🆕
That 88 is crazy. He ran 2.02 vs derby 203. 🤔 slower early. Want him just off the pace. He ran a 97 bris. Same as derby.
Surface Was Wet on Derby Day...Why is an 88 Crazy?...On Easy Uncontested Lead Going 10F Against Maidens
@@Brick-so1ig How the race was run pace wise has nothing to do with the Beyer (92) or Equibase (88) speed figs assigned for his race, which both look oddly low. Their speed figs assigned the race winner are based primarily upon the raw winning time of the race and the track variant assigned to that race plus a few other things like run up distance, and distance off the rail. Race pace has nothing materially to do with either so the fact he ran on an easy uncontested lead has no meaningful impact on very low Equibase and Beyer speed figs assigned to Batten Down for his 1 1/4 CD win. On the surface, the Equibase and Beyer figs for Batten Down's win do look oddly low given that he ran 1 1/4 at CD in a raw time of 2:02 49. To put that time into perspective, over the past 20 years the average Kentucky Derby winning raw time at the same track and distance (CD at 1 1/4) has been exactly 2:02 58 (slower than Batten Down's time). Yet, during that same time the very lowest Beyer speed figures assigned to winners only fell below 100 twice in 20 years - in 2014 when California Chrome ran a time of 2:03 66 he received a BSF of 97 and in 2019 when Country House (ran 2nd to disqualified Maximum Security) ran a time of 2:03 93 and was given a BSF of 99. Equibase during that same 20 year period only assigned a winning E fig to the KD winner under a 100 on one occasion - that would be Rich Strike's 97 when he ran his Derby in 2:02 61. The average Equibase winning E fig over the past 20 years in the Derby has been a 109. 21 points higher than what Batten Down received, an 88. So Equibase is saying with their E Figs that despite the fact Batten Down's winning raw time was actually faster than the average Derby winning time over the past 20 years at the same track and the same distance, his winning Equibase speed fig of 88 is correctly 21 points below the average E Figs they assigned to those 20 Derby winners. Their E Fig for BD is positing the track Batten Down ran his race on had a variant roughly the equivalent of being more than 20 lengths faster at 1 1/4 at CD than the average variant of those 20 Kentucky Derby races (because in Equibase a 1 point difference equates to approximately 1 horse length in routes). It seems extremely hard to believe that Batten Down's CD track played roughly 20+ lengths faster than the average Kentucky Derby day track did over the past 2 decades. Could it be possible? Sure it could, but it appears a bit hard to believe IMO. And no, I'm not saying for sure the figs assigned to Batten Down are off, but on the surface they sure look very oddly low given the final raw time of his race and what we know about the Equibase and Beyer figs assigned to KD winners at the same track and distance over the past 2 decades (an average of a 109 for E Figs with average raw winning race times that were slower than BD's winning time).
@williamworth208 Yeah, given the average EBase fig handed out to recent KD winners (last 20 years) of a 109 and given the fact their average Derby winning raw time is actually slower than Batten Down's (2:02 58 KD winners versus 2:02 49 for BD) that EBase Fig of only an 88 for BD looks hard to believe. Their fig is saying the CD track was basically playing 20+ lengths faster from a variant standpoint for BD's race versus how the CD track played on average for those past 20 Derby's (and we know they soup that track up often on Big Race days like KD day). The 88 Ebase Fig and the Beyer Fig of only a 92 both look off. Their Ebase fig of 88 suggests that in order for him to have gotten a fig of a 109 (the average fig they assigned to KD winners over the past 2 decades) he would have had to run his race in basically 2:00 flat time, which would have given him the 2nd fastest KD raw time in the past 40 years with only Monarchos' 2001 time of 1:59 97 being marginally faster by a single tic. I'm calling BS on that 88 fig. LOL🙂
@@rcg9573 Pace Has Nothing to do With Speed Figures?...This Wouldnt Even Make Sense
@@rcg9573 Final Times of Races Do Not Dictate The Speed Figures...Other Circumstances are Involved...Final Time Handicapping Will Leave You With Lint in Your Pocket in The Longrun
More than 3 or 4. He has lots in top 4 spots.
Once the thorograph sheets come out that will tell me if he’s fast enough & If he’s coming in on forward moving pattern or paired numbers he’s be DANGEROUS! Just is he fast enough and will the G1 company be over his head
Forever young would have won
If you look at past performances, you would have seen that Seize The Grey broke his maiden at Saratoga on a sloppy track.
Just steel got hurt . He,ll be out awhile
I hit a super high 5!
Like the DUMMY I am i liked Seize the Grey all week but instead of going with the horse I liked I changed at last minute. Of course he wins😂😂 Cost myself big bucks but hey I deserve getting the beating
Grey had a ton left in the take. This could be a special horse
On a day like that, it was hard to come from behind. The humidity lowered oxygen intake and the mud added weight. I think Jamie deserves a lot of credit for doing what he did. He took a risk, and thankfully he had enough in the tank to keep going.
Catching freedom breaks to slow and if there is lasting legitimate early speed he is toast
from a racing form perspective seize the gray looked like he was going to go to the lead
Imagination was beaten by a horse ,misplaced his name,who was clobbered in the Derby so ,he had no chance and looked like he didn't like mud and distance ,dear sir.Prof.Dr.Nasir Fazal Cambridge USA
The horses that ran 2 weeks ago finished 1,2,3
Mystik Dan had no excuse
Seize the grey headed to Belmont stakes most likely. Sorry, I’m commenting while listening. We are super excited to see him up there.
If you subscribe to the 3 year old bounce theory Seize the Grey was a lock in the Pat Day Mile as his form said a big move was coming. Then to run him back 2 weeks later proved the theory accurate. When a horse enters peak form at the right time you run him back. Coach knew this and that’s why he entered him in the Preakness.
I like your clear and brief assessments. The betting portion especially. I've been looking for you. You're my guy now. Thanks! Subscribed.
He is !
I like Just Steel to have a good race.
Tuscan Gold will probably end up being the favorite. All I got to say is he's a jogger sports fan. Exacta Tucson Gold and Just Steele take it to the right bank
I enjoy your analysis of the race. I'm going with Catching Freedom, I realize the race shape isn't ideal for him, but I feel he's the class of the field. Thanks.
I had Tuscan gold locked in at 8-1 Future bet
Wow.big horse....majestic looking...