The Rational Reminder Podcast
The Rational Reminder Podcast
Cameron Passmore is a portfolio manager with PWL Capital Inc. and is securities-licensed by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). Benjamin Felix is a portfolio manager with PWL Capital Inc. and is securities-licensed by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO).
Portfolio Management and brokerage services are offered by PWL Capital Inc, which is regulated by Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), and is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF).
Financial planning and insurance products are offered by PWL Advisors Inc., and is regulated in Ontario by Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA) and in Quebec by the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF). PWL Advisors Inc. is not a member of CIPF.
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I left an investment company in January. My role was trading bitcoin with algorithms. Started in 2013. It feels like leaving a religious community. How could I not see the truth for so long? Now I am the crazy one.
Great video! You’re both truly very good interviewers. You formulate very insightful and interesting questions. I’ve recently been trying to learn as much as possible about crypto assets and your videos on the subject have been really helpful.
Below average people make up most of the world.
In talking about who is recommending you and listening, a financial planner recommended your podcast to me after talking about different investment strategies. I've been listening ever since.
Hi Cameron and Ben, love the show and podcast! Thanks for sharing your experience and knowledge. Have you looked at any covered call ETF's and do you use them in your portfolios? Thx!
Recently became a fan of the podcast and listening through a lot of the backlog. I really appreciate your content in general that you two do not shy away from discussing topics like these. A minor note (this is not intended as criticism and I understand that I'm commenting on a 2 year old video) to 28:44: they work fewer *paid* hours. It is implied by the context of a pay gap and financial planning can't do much about it but I think it's still worth pointing out that distinction by adding this qualifier in discussions of work hours. After I was introduced to the notions of "care work" and "reproductive labor", I can't help but putting this mental asterisk on every mention of work hours in the context of gender.
*The Rational YOLO'er:* Read 15 finance papers and then bet everything on deeply out-of-the-money NVDA calls ( oДo)💸
Thumbs down! Didn't give us a single meme stock hot tip that's about to skyrocket in the coming days. I mean, no need to give tickers and open yourself of liability, but at least throw us a bone posting some ambiguously cryptic image cleared beforehand with your legal team, guys! (I need huge gains to recoup my recent overwhelming losses)... Also, this guy with hair filling in for Ben... tell you what, this show has been going down like the 3x inverse QQQ! 📉
AMAZING video! TY!
Guys, thanks for being so informative, and also reading so many papers in the area I love: Finance. Thanks really. From Argentina. I'm on the Fama's school: The markets are efficient in my opinion. xd. Thanks.
Ken French and Eugene Fama are the smartest guys in the room no doubt. Active management is undoubtedly a negative sum game. But that does not mean we should necessarily discard active strategies out of hand. Diversifying broadly and well is the only free lunch and it is near impossible to do optimally with a passive only approach. There are huge benefits to blending as many uncorrelated strategies we can get our hands on, even if some of those strategies are part of a universe where you (on average), will end up on the negative sum side of the active management ledger. Take trend following for example. Trend following has demonstrated historically a long term positive return, is uncorrelated to bond and equity risk premia, has proven to be a reliable winner in protracted drawdowns in equity and bond markets (take a look at 2008 and 2022 for a recent view of this). Can we source trend following passively or low cost? Well.... maybe. But even if we can't , should we eliminate it from consideration because active management is a negative sum game? Should we eliminate CTAs and multi-strategy hedge funds because they fleece you with fees, and you are on average going to be a "sucker" to the negative sum alpha game? Should we eliminate levered L/S equity strategies that tax optimize and harvest significant tax alpha because we are paying AQR a freaking fee more than Vanguard's? If your answer is "Yes", because you believe and genuflect in the name of the Father, Son and the Holy Negative Sum Active Game Ghost, I 'd encourage you to think more deeply about this question. Have you deployed a portfolio, built or even looked at a financial model of the power of diversifying uncorrelated, negative sum alpha game strategies into your retirement portfolio where sequencing risk and drawdowns threaten your ability to outlive your money? If not, there's diversification alpha in them there hills. Are to we rely on bonds as the only true source of diversification in our retirement portfolios? The smartest guys in the room never seem to take us here in their brilliant discourse. Why? There are a lot of potential valid conjectures that I wont get into and 'm not claiming that just because some of them are on DFAs payroll, board, or GP list that they are somehow compromised. I wouldn't be in a position to assess that, but I do find it odd that scholars of this gravitas and intellectual rigor, consistently fail to address the question of the power and value of looking beyond passive to active management as a potential source of diversification. Many strategies have the potential to be as powerful and complementary to the traditional passive diversifiers: long bonds and long commodities. We shouldnt discard them because they are active.
If retirees are liquidating their portfolios in their retirement years, then won't that cash enter the economy as payments for services and goods which will eventually end up as income for other people who to some degree will invest that in their retirement portfolios?
Terrible understanding of markets by Cornell. Incredible really..
Calls are more popular than puts with retail because selling covered calls makes people feel like they're still exposed to success in the underlying, whereas selling puts is covered by cash and therefore doesn't. People who get assigned when selling puts feel like they took a loss, but people who get assigned when selling calls feel like they merely missed out on the most possible gain. If you aren't in an advantaged position relative to the market, mathematically it largely works itself out in the options pricing, but one *feels* more like "free money" to people. The market makers, of course, feast on this.
Fidelity asset allocation ETFs?
Went thru 2008/2009 crash & stayed invested but it was really hard to do! It took years & years to bring my account back to normal. So 2022 wasn’t too bad in comparison. Now that I’m retired, I’m sure it’ll be harder during a crash, thinking about recovery timeframes. Thankfully, I still don’t need my investments to live on, so I’m still willing to stay invested in the market.
Why use options when 3LNV exists? You want to go balls out, there is your play.
i think calls are more popular than puts because the temptation to take the risk arises on positive news and speculation primarily
And the fact that we have been in a long running bull market
I am looking forward to watch this show.I can't even define roaring kitty as a model. I have seen some very young teenagers putting posts out there risking alot of their hard earned "minimum" wage money into these models using their parents investment accounts. They feel awful when they lose money and spend their breaks/ lunch time trying to do more trading to recoup the money & posting for urgent help in different investment communities. I don't think it should be easy for anyone of any age with limited investing experience to have access to risky trading through options or to be able to easily engage in trading of certain stocks during an active meme stock cycle. As a wealthsimple app user, I have gotten bombarded with the ads for options trading and some of the risks but its super easy for me to start and lose alot of my hard earned money quite quickly. Very dangerous investing times for your average retail investor .
Find it quite interesting that you are so surprised that retail investors that lose keep coming back. I am from a sports betting background and ti doesnt surprise me at all as I am fairly sure there is a huge overlap between losing sports bettors and retail investors. Its just an entertainment product for them. Of course profiting is something they'd like to do but overall arent willing to put in the work, its just another bet to them really albeit that they probably think they are doing something fairly sophisticated when actually their sports bets probably have more chance of winning in the long run as the counterparties arent as sophisticated.
Brazil mentioned!! 😂🇧🇷
love that Cameron doesn't let Ben get away with saying the minimum about his trip
This matches my experience losing money on options.
Thanks to Cam, Ben, and the whole PWL capital team for this amazing podcast.
Please try and get Karsten Jeske, PHD economist, from Early Retirement Now, for an interview! I would love to see Ben's opinion on Karsten's SWR Series & research.
I’m 52 hoping to end the rat race by 60 with above $1M. I know money is a liability to be exchanged for assets with real value like real estate (properties for rent) stocks (dividends) bonds (interest) But, what is it with bitcoin? I hear a lot about it and I'd love to diversify my portfolio.
bitcoin does not pay any yield but will reward you with growth that you can't find in any other asset class
look at the charts, bitcoin has outperformed every stock and banking product ever developed even after multiple pullbacks over the last decade. not a financial advisor but I know what i'm saying
The key is diversification. Personally, I delegate my investing to an advisor, cos my job doesn't permit the time to perform market analysis myself. Thankfully, my once ago stagnant portfolio has now 5X in barely 4 years, summing up almost 7 figure as of today.
i'm blown away! more info please? i am a young adult living in Miami where i've encountered several millionaires, and my goal is to become one... they all seem to be involved in either real estate, stocks, or crypto
Well the name is 'Evelyn Infurna'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I only sell covered calls, so I've only ever made money trading options
Has selling covered calls ever made you make less money on the underlying? That's equivalent to losing money trading options.
It's pretty hard to achieve Keith Gill's recent results without also possessing his ability to manipulate the market.
He was a nobody before his gains
@@michaelsaenz380 The first time round, yes. But this time he's leveraged his fame to move the market.
Nice try but I think the fight against irrational behaviour is useless. Options trading is just one thing out of thousands that doesn't make sense and people continue doing it. Smoking, gambling, religion, compulsory consumption, overeating,....we are just wired in a special way and can't help ourselves when it comes to things that address our deepest needs and desires. I don't think this will change anytime soon. And who knows? Our unwillingness to address global warming might be the last irrational behaviour we need to discuss.
I do think a large portion of the social media surrounding options trading on Reddit/KZread does portray it as gambling so at least a lot of the members of these communities are at least aware that it's not some sort of magic money tree.
Great comment. This channel is way underrated but at least the few who follow are people like you 😊
I agree on most or maybe even all on what these two does and what they say, I wonder if they had a specific playlist on behavioral, since I kept looking at BTC/USD even though I'm 100% on index funds 😅
Options trading keeping Ben's hair looking good.
Yeah, yeah, but the barber/saloon on the other end of those contracts is suffering greatly...
How will options for hedging work if there are no speculators
When both parties want to reduce uncertainty. Here is a basic example A potato farmer and a potato salesmen can agree years in advance on a delivery and price benefiting them both. The potato farmer might guarentee that he can sell his potatoes come harvest and the salesman can guarentee a certain price and be protected against a potato price bubble Both sides of an options trade can be beneficial without the need for one side to be taken by a gambler
@@Crovea this is not an option though
@@kabootarkhanawala8271 that's very much an option and how options got started to begin with e.g. a potato "call" is something a potato salesman might buy that gives him the right to buy potatoes at a fixed price. the farmer might write those calls. farmer might also buy some potato puts at the same time to guarentee he can sell his potatoes, even if potato prices crash options on stocks work the same way and can have similar hedging benefits
@kabootarkhanawala8271 you have no ideia what you are talking about. Please stay away from anything options related
@@Croveathanks for explaining option so simply and adequately.
Ben looks fit! Is he getting ready for the next basketball season?
options are zero sum, so if retail investors loose money then someone else has to gain it by definition
To be fair, by that logic, even stock transaction is zero sum. Option is a valuable tool for someone with risk capacity, but no trading or financial efficiency to raise capital themselves, to enjoy financing at a lower rate, while limiting losses. It is also a good tool to hedge. It is certainly misused alot, but option has value
@@prestonlui6451 you would have to push your logic very far to call stocks zero sum and even then I would struggle. Stocks are ownership in productive assets, options are actually zero sum in the narrow context of the market they are traded in
They are worse than zero sum, due to all the costs involved. Also you ate unlikely to beat institutions.
It's similar to why investing in single stocks is bad but index funds is good. Options simply increase exposure to the underlying, which means you're getting even more idiosyncratic risk than you would investing in that single stock, and that risk is uncompensated. The market makers, on the other hand, get to trade options on every stock so end up much more diversified. If you buy options on an index you're going to have a much better risk/reward tradeoff (though depending on how extreme you get it can still be a poor idea).
It will be very interesting to check back in 20 or 30 year on how is roaring kitty doing.
First?
@The Rational Reminder Podcast, can you cover active ETFs? There's not much coverage about them on the internet. Active ETFs seem to replicate passive ETFs with small adjustments to the weightings. They also have much lower fees compared to traditional funds and are more comparable for Europeans (with a 5-15 basis point difference between an active ETF and its benchmark ETF). At least some of JPMorgan's active ETFs have performed well over the last 5 years. I know this could all be noise, but active ETFs have only been around for 5 years.
Dividends for life!
After 1:10:00 : "You could have zillions of transactions, right?" In the case of Bitcoin, not really, because the system is so inefficient. Really we can only have one block every roughly ten minutes and a couple thousand of transactions per block. Afaik, there is still no meaningful adoption of protocolls like Lightning, so the information that 90% of transactions are trades is telling.
Superb.
this is a false theory. it's an argument FOR the old style value investing, which is long dead. the economy today is winner take all due to the ever increasing speed of movement in capital resources. if you don't index, you want to buy the strong winners anyway.
Is there a link to the robo-adviser return comparisons referenced in the conversation?
20:05 I thought you said Rob Riggle. I'm like there's no fucking way.
Always thought value was less risky and boring. Thank you for the clarification.
I question whether there actually exist a "fiduciary" advisor in investment management. That's the equivalent of an unbiased journalist. That's not saying certain professionals aren't worth their fees, it's more about the alignment of interest in my opinion than the appearance of a standard of ethics as ethics is highly subjective.
I like the one where if you lined up baseballs from LA to New York, and you drove along and attempted to pick up the one winning baseball... Winning the Powerball is 3x as hard.
The not in my lifetime quote is possibly very relevant. I watched a program on why US debt is unsustainable and a crash was coming. The logic was strong and I bored my friends sharing this theory. Thirty years later its still not really happened. Today im retired, partly on the back of US growth. In another 30 years ill be dead. So im off to enjoy the sunshine rather than worry about the sky falling in again.
Where did you get that shirt Ben?
lululemon
@@rationalreminder lol, didn't think you'd actually reply. Thanks!
I did not expect an episode as fantastic as this. 👍
Super disappointing this movie isn't available and the access code is no longer valid