Albert S

Albert S

Silver Forecaster Index

Silver Forecaster Index

How to predict the gold price?

How to predict the gold price?

Пікірлер

  • @miKey1201-kx7ow
    @miKey1201-kx7ow15 сағат бұрын

    Victoria gold recent crash.....maybe ?

  • @katchum
    @katchum14 сағат бұрын

    Too many unknowns, could go bankrupt.

  • @KBLV
    @KBLVКүн бұрын

    GSVR has its debt structured as repayable in gold and silver equivalents, which is why 20% lower revenue. The debt is not in USD but in metals. If you look at the more recent press releases they are paying them back as quickly as possible.

  • @KBLV
    @KBLVКүн бұрын

    and increase finance/interest costs is that they are, with the higher metals prices, paying them off more quickly. You can't just increase it to 6m/year and assume it is something permanent.

  • @katchum
    @katchumКүн бұрын

    So revenue will go back to 100% when all debt is repaid?

  • @KBLV
    @KBLVКүн бұрын

    kzread.info/dash/bejne/nq5rtY-oe8vVpZs.htmlsi=YuOGbT1xb36HKz1g covers the debt structure and more

  • @KBLV
    @KBLVКүн бұрын

    @@katchum and debt repayable in metals is a great advantage because it doesn't screw them over totally in a bear scenario But great video tho, I like the deep dive

  • @Reg1982
    @Reg19823 күн бұрын

    Interesting thanks for sharing love it!

  • @originalfred66
    @originalfred664 күн бұрын

    Thanks for the commentary on this, but it sure has not done well over the last 2 years.

  • @katchum
    @katchum4 күн бұрын

    In 2022 we did see a pullback in stocks together with lumber falling. In 2023 lumber and gold both went sideways to higher.

  • @dinaahmed4097
    @dinaahmed40974 күн бұрын

    many thanks brother

  • @Ganezlos
    @Ganezlos4 күн бұрын

    Why you dont study Liberty Gold please in your gold study?

  • @katchum
    @katchum4 күн бұрын

    Good resource size, grade ok but deep. Looks fair value, will need to see feasibility results first.

  • @Ganezlos
    @Ganezlos4 күн бұрын

    @@katchum Ok. Thank you so much!

  • @adilakif0061
    @adilakif00616 күн бұрын

    Where do I find the tickers for these stocks?

  • @katchum
    @katchum6 күн бұрын

    Just go to yahoo finance and type in the names of the stocks

  • @stevedrager7881
    @stevedrager788113 күн бұрын

    Amazing find on the CPI! I have a slightly different theory based on your data. I think that the price of silver has always been manipulated based on derivatives and fake paper products (like SLV). I believe that you found the formula that the central banks, COMEX and others have used to create the price of silver all of these passed years. They created this price to suppress the real value of silver and make FIAT currencies look more attractive even though inflation destroys the value everyday. Therefore, using CPI makes sense to provide the illusion of stability. I think this is about to change. Manufacturing and investors now want real physical silver. The first moment that supply can not provide silver for photovoltaic panels , medical equipment, phones, military, EV's, film,......the price will jump as buyers fight for supply. The supply is about to run low for the first time in hundreds of years. I agree with everything you have said, but I think price will continue to rise this year to maybe $36 or $42 as some people see the scarcity coming. COMEX spot price will fall apart when other sources and exchanges are selling for $10 more per ounce. Unfortunately I do not have data to back up when the shortage will really kick off. We have been using much more silver the last 5 years than has been produced. Average solar panels use 0.30 ounces of silver and production is being ramped up significantly. By the way, I loved your video on MKO and bought a small amount of the gold company. I wish I would have bought a lot!

  • @robnisbet6797
    @robnisbet679716 күн бұрын

    Thank you for the excellent video. Eric Sprott remains a shareholder of this company. I’m getting conflicting views on the financials and will use this information to get to the bottom of what’s going on here. Any updates would be appreciated

  • @katchum
    @katchum16 күн бұрын

    I'm still bearish gsvr and think it's overvalued. But gold and silver will rise so they'll be fine.

  • @robnisbet6797
    @robnisbet679716 күн бұрын

    @@katchumthanks. Keep up the great content

  • @MegaBoolaBoola
    @MegaBoolaBoola16 күн бұрын

    The CEO of Soma Gold was arrested for accepting bribes, and resigned in January.

  • @katchum
    @katchum16 күн бұрын

    He was arrested for things not related to Soma Gold and new CEO is coming.

  • @MegaBoolaBoola
    @MegaBoolaBoola16 күн бұрын

    @@katchum Agreed. But having your CEO arrested for a financial crime, even if the crime is only related to his previous job, is no bueno.

  • @katchum
    @katchum16 күн бұрын

    @@MegaBoolaBoola Not a big deal to me because it has nothing to do with the company itself.

  • @stanispanda3907
    @stanispanda390717 күн бұрын

    how long do we do it for

  • @dinaahmed4097
    @dinaahmed409719 күн бұрын

    Hi. You mentioned silver may not go higher while gold will. Then you said silver follow gold as they rise together. Did i get confused somewhere?

  • @katchum
    @katchum19 күн бұрын

    Gold and silver will both move higher, but silver will go up less if we keep seeing disinflation.

  • @Reg1982
    @Reg198219 күн бұрын

    Thanks Albert learning so much from you almost beginning to feel like a goldbug now. Would really like to to dive into this market fully and only trade gold, silver and miners...

  • @katchum
    @katchum19 күн бұрын

    Once gold moves into the bear cycle, I'll be looking at other sectors. But this bull market might take a while.

  • @eduardokosovicz8747
    @eduardokosovicz874719 күн бұрын

    i had a good stack 5 mouths ago, im quiet happy, and is going steady....it seems they are going for ESG. best time to buy, now! New era of batteries are just about to explode, Singapure and Malasia is comming with highly efficient new batteries technology, every company will follow, there will be a high demand....... and the companys that produces end products want green lithium. Made 2,5million crude last year buying stocks that really follows ESG.

  • @katchum
    @katchum19 күн бұрын

    good for you, hope lithium rises

  • @user-zh7tw5bd3n
    @user-zh7tw5bd3n19 күн бұрын

    Have you taken in consideration the décennal gold run that experienced investors tell us has Silver outpace gold because gold makes the news and peasants only have money for silver? Congrats btw. Genius in the making

  • @katchum
    @katchum19 күн бұрын

    silver oupaces gold for other reasons than that

  • @massefoy
    @massefoy19 күн бұрын

    @@katchum do you mean to say you have actually checked the bull runs of the 70s and that your parameter was the one?

  • @katchum
    @katchum19 күн бұрын

    @@massefoy i checked the cpi between 2000-2018. I can do another check between 1960-2000.

  • @user-zh7tw5bd3n
    @user-zh7tw5bd3n17 күн бұрын

    @@katchum yes the key moments are the moments gold did 10X because we re in one of these moments silver does NOT behave similarly when gold moves all right and when it 10X

  • @farizuvais4044
    @farizuvais404419 күн бұрын

    How then do you explain the recent explosive move up whereas the index has remained in negative territory all that time?

  • @katchum
    @katchum19 күн бұрын

    China and India has been buying lots of silver, that's certainly a factor. But I want to keep it simple. Predict gold and predict the gold silver ratio.

  • @przemyslawtracz4215
    @przemyslawtracz421520 күн бұрын

    ok, sliver next ha ha

  • @katchum
    @katchum20 күн бұрын

    Unfortunately, I haven't found a good way to predict silver.

  • @rahulkhatri2892
    @rahulkhatri289220 күн бұрын

    Great content as always Albert. Always appreciate your work. I was wondering if you would consider looking into an oil and gas company Condor Energies (CDR). I know you don’t do oil and gas videos other than few videos on PEI. CDR started operation in Kazakhstan field from March 2024 and reported Q1 earnings. They made over 7mil just in March alone and I think they have huge potential moving forward. Next earnings will provide more clarity on their future. They have Khazik and Uzbek fields which they are starting to commence operations along with a Lithium mining field.

  • @MegaBoolaBoola
    @MegaBoolaBoola21 күн бұрын

    Most economists and youtubers have been calling for a recession, and a stock market decline, for years now. Howard Marks says macroeconomic forecasts tell you more about the forecaster, than they do about the economy. However, I really appreciate you and your content Albert.

  • @katchum
    @katchum20 күн бұрын

    Recession is still coming.

  • @MegaBoolaBoola
    @MegaBoolaBoola20 күн бұрын

    @@katchum Recessions always come... eventually.

  • @Reg1982
    @Reg198221 күн бұрын

    Really appreciate this kind of video's about sharing knowledge, hope you will continue to teach us some stuff!

  • @ptahX
    @ptahX21 күн бұрын

    This is an excellent video! I'm watching it for the second time already and taking notes. Thanks Albert!

  • @katchum
    @katchum21 күн бұрын

    Remember, knowledge is power.

  • @przemyslawtracz4215
    @przemyslawtracz421522 күн бұрын

    and my experiment continues, because I still have that short but the stock trading is halted so I wonder what happens next, I guess it will go down to 0.05 or 0 not sure

  • @Lukky_Luke
    @Lukky_Luke21 күн бұрын

    cool, let us know how that works if trade never continues again.

  • @katchum
    @katchum21 күн бұрын

    Haha, I've never been in such situation. You should have sold when it crashed 70%.

  • @Ravencroft81
    @Ravencroft8122 күн бұрын

    They needed too much money to get to commercial production. That's pretty much my first question I ask when I'm looking at a possible investment.

  • @Reg1982
    @Reg198222 күн бұрын

    He ben je toevallig nederlands?

  • @katchum
    @katchum22 күн бұрын

    Vlaams

  • @Reg1982
    @Reg198222 күн бұрын

    @@katchum Ah oke, kijk altijd met veel plezeier jouw channel erg leerzaarm. Misschien kan je ipv. van een analyse een keer een deep dive doen in hoe je beslist waar je naar kijkt en waarom.., en hoe je dat kan gebruiken om goud goed te kunnen traden.

  • @silicaskynet3401
    @silicaskynet340123 күн бұрын

    New update?

  • @katchum
    @katchum23 күн бұрын

    lithium price hasn't changed, the update is still downside until 1 billion market cap.

  • @user-cv9qn8nr4p
    @user-cv9qn8nr4p23 күн бұрын

    It didin't worked, I'm gunna cry

  • @samchan9616
    @samchan961623 күн бұрын

    Nice info

  • @pierrotfortin
    @pierrotfortin23 күн бұрын

    What do you think of endeavour mining ?

  • @katchum
    @katchum23 күн бұрын

    Fair value, but in a bad region.

  • @joepalazzolo6123
    @joepalazzolo612323 күн бұрын

    Wesdome - WDOFF

  • @miKey1201-kx7ow
    @miKey1201-kx7ow24 күн бұрын

    C.ELEM I think is worth a look I don't like Peru much but they also have a Nevada play .Also things have change since you last looked at LIO , they are now at 400/t /day with high grade gold

  • @kyler565
    @kyler56524 күн бұрын

    Did you ever look at sandstorm gold. Gold royalties

  • @katchum
    @katchum24 күн бұрын

    Yes, I looked at wpm and fnv and they don't have enough cashflow to make me interested.

  • @johnceko8302
    @johnceko830224 күн бұрын

    I hope your right about Equinox.. will be great buying opportunity..

  • @katchum
    @katchum24 күн бұрын

    Will have to drop a lot more for me to buy Equinox.

  • @mecinsignifiant
    @mecinsignifiant24 күн бұрын

    What do you think about POLY ? 475Koz a year at 1300 AISC, 20% CIT rate, 0% WHT rate. Trading at 1.5 Bn USD mkt cap. 150M net cash. 3.7x 2024 fwd p/e

  • @katchum
    @katchum24 күн бұрын

    You mean polymetal? I can't even find the ticker lol.

  • @MegaBoolaBoola
    @MegaBoolaBoola24 күн бұрын

    I think they still need to get clearance to trade on western markets again, after they finally sold-off all of their valuable Russian assets for a discount.

  • @kyler565
    @kyler56524 күн бұрын

    Polymetal investor here. They will change the name to solidcore next week. Google Polymetal AiX for the ticker

  • @Sara-zo6el
    @Sara-zo6el25 күн бұрын

    It worked for me ipad air number 9 When I bought it, the store owner told me not to charge it until it runs out of charge, and I responded to it within a day. It ran out of charge, and I ran to charge it for two hours, and it did not charge or open from the first day I bought it. I told my mother, she told me, “We will return it,” and my heart was pounding because I was feeling depressed. A long time ago, the idea came to my mind to search on KZread, and when I searched, I saw videos, and they turned out to be fake, and this video appeared to me. I saw it and the comments were positive. I told my mother, she said, “Try it, I tried it, and it worked.” Thank you very much. It deserves a like and a subscription. Thank you. ❤❤

  • @Lukky_Luke
    @Lukky_Luke25 күн бұрын

    June-August is generally weak months for gold. So we got the whole summer hopefully to buy more gold stocks before it starts getting to 2700

  • @dinaahmed4097
    @dinaahmed409725 күн бұрын

    Many thanks brother

  • @ch2305
    @ch230526 күн бұрын

    What the heck happened with Trigon Metals. Up 92 cents???? Reverse stock split???

  • @katchum
    @katchum26 күн бұрын

    Yes, 5:1 split

  • @Lukky_Luke
    @Lukky_Luke25 күн бұрын

    lets hope Monument mining does the same

  • @nedi9249
    @nedi924927 күн бұрын

    Hi again, Why do you think, that the delta between Enterprise value and market cap is fully debt? Isnt it possible, that the market dont see the fair value of the company? (the proberties, the facilities, the reserves in the ground and so on...)?

  • @katchum
    @katchum27 күн бұрын

    The delta between ev and market cap is by definition net debt liability. We don't count the non-current assets because you can't sell them for cash easily. Yes, it's possible they can expand reserves but they still need to get it out of the ground.

  • @justinwoah2622
    @justinwoah262228 күн бұрын

    Any update on Soma Gold? Thanks

  • @katchum
    @katchum28 күн бұрын

    Soma is profitable producing at full capacity. Pe of 3, ev/fcf of 5. Grades still rising back to normal levels as mining faces get in production. Aisc is at 1300 second half of this year. Exploration ongoing to get new resource estimate next year. Drilling cordero at depth and drilling old mines la ye and mangos. Also drilling nechi. Aurora gets in production by Q4. Debt repayments starting this month. They need to do maintenance and mill fix still so needed working capital cash.

  • @nedi9249
    @nedi924928 күн бұрын

    Sry for my bad english - I am no native speaker: In my opinion there is a market cap from 72M€, where do you take 150M $ ? And is the output of their five mines constant? In my mind there are a good chance for a producer in this times with high silver and gold prices.

  • @katchum
    @katchum28 күн бұрын

    You always need to take into account the debt/liabilities on the balance sheet because it needs to be repaid. That is where the 150M is coming from. 5 mines have different mine lives, but I just did a rough estimation. If you want, you can split it up per mine.

  • @nedi9249
    @nedi924927 күн бұрын

    @@katchum Where is my long answer? Its gone?

  • @nedi9249
    @nedi924927 күн бұрын

    @@katchum Puh...thanks for your answer short: I am uneducated in this - you seems deep in it: Why you add the debt - If I have 50k debt, and 50k on my bank account, I have 0 ?! And - why is this a matter of market cap at the stock exchange? Isnt it the decision of the investors, how much to pay for a company - book-worth? If there are easy ways to explain, I would be happy ;)

  • @katchum
    @katchum27 күн бұрын

    @@nedi9249 When you buy a company, you also buy the debt. Let's look at the following scenario. I buy a company at 1m market cap, but they have 1 trillion of debt! Will you ever see any of the cashflow that comes in? No, because they will need to pay off the 1 trillion in debt.

  • @tassv5909
    @tassv590929 күн бұрын

    hi Albert, just found your channel and watching this now. thanks for the video. happen to be also in trigon and mako mining. soma looks good however do not like the chart and following charts, which i only do since a year, seems to work a lot.

  • @katchum
    @katchum29 күн бұрын

    The charts are about to get better.

  • @tassv5909
    @tassv590929 күн бұрын

    @@katchum we did not coincidentally meet playing cards in czech republic last summer?

  • @katchum
    @katchum29 күн бұрын

    @@tassv5909 I already forgot where I was last summer, but it wasn't Czech republic.

  • @tonyperrotti5049
    @tonyperrotti5049Ай бұрын

    Can you look ınto Caledonıa gold mınıng? The stock ıs cheap .. 80k ounce gold producer 1k aısc .. mk cap around 200 mıllıon . Was just added to the GDXJ and payıng a 5.5% dividend..thanks

  • @katchum
    @katchumАй бұрын

    Caledonia costs have increased a lot, currently not really cheap, but when they put the new project in production in 2028, it will double.

  • @freddy5070
    @freddy507017 күн бұрын

    I find Caledonia Mining interesting but what market cap would be appropriate for a 80,000 ounce producer?

  • @katchum
    @katchum16 күн бұрын

    @@freddy5070 That depends on lots of things like debt, costs, mine life, but Caledonia Mining is now fair value.