0.1% for three copies and 3.54% for two copies makes it approximately an 1.5 * 10^(-7) chance to see a full house in your starting hand. Which either means that the MD shuffler is rigged, or I need to hit up some casinos with how many times it's happened to me.

12% chance to see a 1-off, yet driver is in 50% of hands...

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

😂😂

@nohnohbody

3 ай бұрын

me drawing the one of iblee after siding it in 7/8 games :^)

@NothingAfter

Ай бұрын

Why you gotta hurt me like this

@Lorens4444

Ай бұрын

Here is a little secret about probability: The vast majority of Yu-Gi-Oh duels are never going to happen. Ever. Because we'll never manage to play them before the heat death of the universe, yet alone one life of a single individual. XD

He spooke freely and used many pictures, I will give a 9/10

Me: 👋🏽Hi im looking for yugioh stastsics 101. This channel: Right this way!

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thanks for being one of the first ones to the lesson - extra credit for you. 😂

Love your videos, it's like studying the math of poker but for yugioh. What an original channel! 👏

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thanks for the love! Glad you like the statistical style of the vids - looking to keep improving and getting more math. Love how many math lovers there are out there.

Holy shit someone actually talked about birthday paradox on deck building! Great stuff bro a lot of people don't understand my decks because they don't know how to build decks and I SPECIFICALLY use the birthday paradox paradigm to reduce the amount of bricks while having a variety of functions and not increase bricks

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

I'm glad you heard of this! Not many people know about these cool statistical oddities. Was thinking of showing other things like the Monty Hall problem and how its in Yugioh and other cool statistics too we see in life. Thanks for watching!

@ozimantv

3 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGaming If you would like a good example of applied deck building on this concept, I have a very good master duel example atm. It is quite different compared to usual builds of people. I can send it to you via email or write a deck list. Essentially tho this concept can be utilized most in 60 card decks imo. The ability to have cards that can do 2 or 2 and a half cards with variety of starting hands + the tearlements as a consistency tool imo makes the 60 card decks valid even if grass is limited to 1 or even banned in future.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

@@ozimantv if you already have it set up yes I would love to see it in an email otherwise, I'd it is too much hassle do not trouble yourself. But that is interesting concept.

@ozimantv

3 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGaming sent it as email also trying to make a few games public on steam to showcase some of the stuff it can do

Quality >>>>> Quantity This channel content is great. Good job

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thank you for the compliment! I try to improve the quality of my videos every time I make a video. Very Grateful you enjoyed the content.

Bro got a mathematics degree

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

:D

@obskewerd3992

3 ай бұрын

Mathmechmatics

@MadDragonify

3 ай бұрын

Bathmech

Wow.. Never thought of deck building this way. I either only play one ofs, or three ofs. This changed my view point significantly 😂

To be fair, *The Heart of the Cards* or *Destiny Draw* does exist in the anime continuity. It is based on the skill of the duelist and will allow them to draw the card they need. Which is why running 40 one-offs would often be very beneficial. Think of it like this. If Yugi played modern YGO he would almost always start with Ash in hand (assuming that's what he needs for the match-up). It wouldn't matter if he ran 1 or 3. At the same time he'd never draw into his Garnets. But since that concept doesn't apply to real life, statistics are the way to go.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

2 ай бұрын

I used to play an old YGO game called Duelists of the Roses. And if you were in a bad position the game would give you a "DESTINY DRAW" and you would get a Raigeki or something crazy even if that card was not in your deck :D I always thought that was a neat mechanic but obviously unbalanced for reasons lol.

@BlazeQuadZ

2 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGamingThis mechanic also exists in the Tag Force series. In those games, whilst Deck Building. you can select certain cards as your Destiny Draw options. Once per duel, if your opponent is in a leading position (often by having more LP), you can perform a Destiny Draw and will get a random one of the selected cards instead of your normal draw. What's neat is that your opponent also gets this ability, which makes for interesting comeback situations. Finally, this concept was also referenced by the real card Draw of Fate. Its effect is basically how the mechanic worked in the Tag Force games.

awesome video again c: it helps a ton seeing the graphs and i rly appreciate u taking the time to compile and display so much info. and your videos are always straight to the point !!

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thanks! I love making and looking at graphs too so I love doing the charts and graphs very therapeutic and fun. Thanks for watching.

This is a great channel discovery for me, glad i found your channel so early, sad there's not hundreds of ygo videos like this to binge lol, always nice to learn something and improve in my hobbies at the same time, you'd be surprised how much help videos like this do, it gets people interested in real life useful knowledge and it's super easy to digest since most people will be more interested when its something they are more familiar with, keep doing what your doing man, you definetely got a new sub :D

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Welcome Aboard! I just started these series about a month ago so yeah I only have a couple of vids right now but they are growing and soon we can have a bunch of great vids to binge. The community here is fantastic. Thanks for watching.

Great Video!

This is exactly what I was asking for! Your channel has reignited my passion for deckbuilding and I'm telling all my friends about you!

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Wow thanks that's a huge compliment. Glad I sparked the fire back into deckbuilding

Did the last few minutes lag like crazy for anyone else, visually speaking? Great video, I took stats in college and this is right on the money. Love the logic of explaining things like not ashing the pot

Very informative video! Thank you

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed this video and found it informative. I am trying to make my videos entertaining and informative at the same time so happy that you liked this. Please let me know if you have any suggestions. Thanks you for watching.

Just got back into the game (Master dual) since playing it casually as a child, Super interesting video mate, going to take a look at some of my decks that im running 3x Ash and 3x Maxx C and might cut them down to 2 of each Keep up the content

What an improvement of your video! Excellent quality!

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thank you! Every video I make I learn from and try to make better than the next! thank you for watching! Hope to continue to make enjoyable videos for you to watch.

Interesting channel. People talking about the statistics of Yugioh are rare. This video and the one about starters have been very enlightening. Thanks for uploading.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

and thank you for watching! really appreciate it more to come to please let me know if you want to see anything else. happy to provide.

Earned a sub right away, amazing video

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed the video! Hope to make many more like it. Thanks!

Epic video, great stuff

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching! Happy you enjoyed the video 😀

throughout my life playing yugioh and running exodia, i've gotten the turn 0 exodia wincon twice as a kid, once as an adult, my brother got it against me once, and the AI for the YGO Power of Chaos games has pulled it off on me two times that i can remember, once with joey and once with yugi

Actually the most usefull video I've seen for deck building

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Glad you found this useful! I also have other fun vids you might like how many starters should you have (admittedly the audio in that is bad as that is the first of the series but then I got a new mic) but i also have 2 card combo vids, and video on 60 card vs 40 card deck etc. So check those out to to help. I am also looking to continuously make videos to aid in deckbuilding by providing statistics etc. so if there is a question please let me know I will be happy to help or even make a video. The community is great here too and they have been happy to help and discuss as well. Thanks for watching!

Years ago around when PEPE were Tier 0 I was talking about Birthday Paradox, rly like your videos!

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes! You were on to something before everyone else! Shame that never caught on and to this day people don't know the small self harm they could be doing to their decks especially in tournament settings where best of 3s are making 1 of their games likely a 4 handed deck. The smallest of advantages add up and the best players can capitalize on them. Happy you like the vids will try to keep them coming!

@phnty

3 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGaming Would it be fun for you analyze mathematically the decks that won YCS tourneys, as in was it good to run that one particular card at that amount etc?

What i would like to know for a future video topic is the factors behind whether or not its correct to Ash your opponent's Pot of Prosperity or if its better to hold onto Ash for a more specific chokepoint and what the statistical odds are for winning a match off of each interaction. I figure that's a pretty complex subject since you have to consider both if Ash is the only non-engine in your hand or if you have other hand traps and board breakers to follow-up with, but it'd probably make for a really interesting video. Cards like Prosperity being an Ash bait is such a common discussion i see online, to the point where I even somehow convinced myself a few months ago into thinking that Pot of Greed of all cards could come off the banlist because of it (among other factors). So its a discussion i'd love to see explored in depth, especially from a mathematical perspective. It'd probably be a long video though (like, Pannenkoek2012 long), but it'd probably perform pretty well too.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes! I am actually working in a Pot video in the making. That vid should be done around early April. I did not think to add a section in the odds to ash and whether not you should ir shouldnt. I will add a section on that part and when you see that section know that it was because of your comment that made me add it! 😉 thanks for commenting and watching!

@four-en-tee

3 ай бұрын

​@@JessePerezStrategyGaming np

just discovered this channel, this is such a unique concept to talk about on ygo, keep it up! also i suggest investing on video editing as this channel grows :>>

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thanks yeah I am trying every video to improve my video editing skills. Let me know if something seems off or janky or new things to improve. I love learning and improving so you will see growth from video to video as i strive to improve like i do my gameplay :) and Thank you for watching.

Finally some quality content.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thanks! that is very humbling! I will try to continue to keep my videos entertaining and provide even better quality with each one. Thank you.

Crazy how I always open with both Malicious in my hand, thank god for the new list 😭

I'd love to see a video on allure of darkness and trade-in

What a great vid! I'd love to see you do a follow-up that goes over the numbers for going second. I wonder how much harder the birthday paradox hurts you when you get that sixth card?

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes even more so, the more cards you draw the greater the effect that you will feel. To illustrate and exacerbate as an example: If you run 14 playsets and all the cards are HOPT you have = 42 card deck and draw your whole deck you essentially have still only have a 14 card hand.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

I might have to look into the math on getting extra cards I haven't done that yet. That could be a fun idea to put in for a future video segment Thank you for watching!

In masterduel running chicken game in the SE deck honestly seems so correct, even though it is a consistent deck without bonfire it can brick pretty often

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes, since there is no bonfire in MD I run 2 copies of chicken game myself. It has drawn into starters like ash or diabellstar engine for me so many times, and then its fodder for the discard cost for the abilities. Only in a very few of games has it not been helpful - in one game the person forgot to get rid of it and didn't have game because they left it up in the battle phase so i was protected by it 😂. Thanks for watching!

This made me remember an episode of ygo gx the day after Battle of Bastion vs Judai, where Bastion finding statistics and play data to defeat Judai.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes! Bastion was one of my favorite characters from GX era. I loved how he used math and strategy in his duels!

Hey, I stumbled over your video and it's really awesome to see stochastics and probabilty calculation for yu gi oh. It would be awesome if you could add the way you did the calculations. For example in the first section you used binominal distribution (probability mass function) and adding fractions when calculating the probabilty of drawing Exodia in your starter hand. How did you calculate the values for the birthday paradox? I result in 4,94% for 60 cards and 7,38% for 40 cards. Would be interested how you got your value, maybe I did a mistake. Considering pmf for the calculation of getting all 5 exodia pieces in your starter hand, the probability would be even worse (0.00000000976563) and yes I also know people who claim they got that multiple times. I would love to see a seperate video about the heart of the cards topic, because this can contain so many different variables including searcher and number of cards (1 of, 2 of, 3 of). Also counting cards like in poker.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

There are 3 ways I usually do calculations. Hypergeometric distribution Probablility calculators are usually the main thing i use for basic calculations. The bigger ones like the birthday paradox i have to do those by hand. You can use a stat calculator stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric here. But if you want to do it by hand for example the first step of the ash formula to see the probability if you would draw one out of a playset of 3 is (37/40) x (36/39) x (35/38) x (34/37) x (33/36) = ~.6624 then subtract 1 from that number (inverse) to get .3376 so that's the percentage to get 1 ash in hand. This is probably one of the easiest of the formulas the wrest take very long to type and explain and explaining in writing is a bit hard for me but I did just create a discord server so if you want i can show my screen and show some of the math if you would like Discord: discord.gg/f3kfYNtnzr Name: jesseperezgaming check that out and send me an invite. Thank you for watching! excited to talk numbers with you.

@blessposter

3 ай бұрын

I just revisited hypergeometric distribution and think for yu gi oh in many cases it makes more sense, but still it can be covered with binominal distribution. Personally I come from the tabletop genre where every trail is independent since we are using dices. Yeah I completely agree that adding fractions is a very fast and convenient way to get a hint of the probability, but can shadow the action value. What I actually meant is that mixing up different methods is completely fine, I think it would be great if you could mention in your videos what you path you used. So it would be easier for me to understand the thinking process behind the number you present. Like in your reply, hypergeometric distrubution and the inverse probability of adding fractions. I personally love writing scripts to calculate the probabilty, since depending on multiple action can get messi pretty fast. Sure I will invite you soon.

Great video, just a few notes and questions: - How did you calculate the chance to draw a repeat? ( 5:10 ) - I'd recommend against using AI images ( 9:42 ), it looks very jarring - The video looks really laggy at 11:57 , probably because of the animated hearts in the background - 13:51 I'm not sure about this, because you can draw a card that would have changed how you combo, so generally it's better to draw the earliest you can

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes your right about using the ai heart of the card picture thought it would be cool to give it a shot though. The chance to draw a repeat I use a hypergeometric distribution probability calculator. You can find one on statrek website. If you need further help I can walk you through how to use one of them. Also, Good catch, The video must have gotten the lag sometime between my editing and KZread upload. Sorry for that. Your right, When talking about the draw cards it also does depend heavily in the deck. Lets say, If you have your 1 card starter and you want to use your draw to maybe get a called by to protect from ash you can certainly take that chance of using the draw earlier to do so but it's roughly a if your play MD Or TCG 2 or 1 out of 34 chance depending on how many called called by is in the deck and likely 32 out of 34 chance to get a card you don't need at this time. So I still would hold the upstart even if it means risking not getting called by because the odds are just so low. At the end of the day we need to use our stats to determine what card we're looking for and what are the probability we will draw such cards and requires full deck knowledge. I do agree though If you don't have your starter or combo then using your draw card early is a must. I would want you to further explain the senario you are seeing that you would want to use your draw card before the combo. it could be we might be saying the same thing just in different ways.

@Flyce_9998

3 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGaming I know about the hypergeometric distribution probability calculator, but I'm not sure how you got these numbers, do you just sum all the probabilities for 2+? As for the draw thing, you might get an extender, or a card you were going to search, allowing you to search something else instead. So most of the time I'd say it's better to draw early, but you are right, it really depends on the hand and deck.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

@@Flyce_9998 The equation to not brick is (37/39) x (35/38) x (33/37) x (31/36) = .671. This is your "non brick" chance. So the inverse is exactly .329 (brick chance) which I rounded to .33 or 1/3 in the video to make explaining easier.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

@@Flyce_9998 with respect to the birthday paradox. The equation to not brick is (37/39) x (35/38) x (33/37) x (31/36) = .671. This is your "non brick" chance. So the inverse is exactly .329 which I rounded to .33 or 1/3 in the video to make explaining easier. If your checking to see how to get your ash blossom odds of drawing at least one for 40 card deck its it's (37/40) (36/39)x(35/38)x(34/37)x(33x36) take that and inverse it and it's also coincidencely around 33%

Nice video! Can you make a video about optimal desires? I play it in marincess and sometimes is rough to banish fiel spell and wave so how many copies should you play it?

Id love to see a longer in depth branded tcg math video about optimal ratios for different builds, decks sizes (40-43-45 etc) how does the math change in regards to keep consistency while adding cards, at which point it stops benefitting the deck, keeping in mind the side deck etc.. it's a lot to ask for a singular archetype, but iv seen so many builds and takes by now that im not sure anymore what is mathematically correct simce there are so many factors to take into consideration

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

I did a video on 60 card decks that kind of have branded in mind when i talked about a couple of points. I think in the future I will do more specific deck types like branded etc. and go over them like I did with my "is gamma worth it" video. Thanks for the suggestions and thanks for watching!

in my master duel snake eyes deck i run kashtira package (field, 3 unicorn + fenrir + birth)+ gamma engine(synchro as well) since these cards sinegyze really well with snake eyes

When you should use a draw card depends a lot on the situation and the deck, I dont think its as simple as you say. If you dont have any play otherwise you obviously have to use it first. But there is also an argument to use it first if you already have combo, if you run cards like crossout designator or deck specific cards that counter handtraps like fire king kirin. Also some decks benefit of the draw cards in the gy like sky striker and going 2nd it can be better to use your draw cards first so you either bait a negation or draw into something like dark ruler no more that lets you freely use your other cards.

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Agreed - I think I was trying to say this but maybe my point was a little lost, I do also think you should think critically when using your draw cards I just wanted to warn people about shotgunning it without reason early. If you have 1 protection card (like crossout) in your deck, and full combo I still think it is better to do full combo then do the draw as the odds for crossout is 1/35 but if its something like 5 protection cards (x 2 book of moon [dodges imp], x 2 called by, and 1 crossout) well now your looking at 5/35 protection card outs which is 14% chance which is way better than the 1/35 = 2.8% chance. So there is a bunch to consider with deck building and alot is knowing your # of protection cards if you have these draw cards in your deck. I agree on your points of Sky Striker etc too very utility and deck dependant. Thank you for watching , and leaving thoughtful insight comment.

This is good. Yu-Gi-Oh needs more data like this

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Glad you liked the video! There's more to come! Thanks for watching.

would be really cool to talk about the math behind breaking a board. like lets say the snake eyes combo, how likely would the regular Master Duel deck be able to break through its endboard (considering perfect gameplay)

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

The best BB for snake eyes imo right now is triple tactics talent because you can take the 3/4 material apollousa they make when they use ip in the main phase. Change of heart therefore might be warrant a discussion but completely lacks the utility of talent when going first if a hand trap is used to might not be as good but maybe in side decks for non master duel gameplay. The 2nd problem is the recurring danger of promethian princess so probably called by and dd crow might get some utility value as BB and handtraps to consider. interesting might have to do a video on it but i am hesitant because the deck is so strong right now i am waiting for the banlists from ocg/tcg/master duel to see what they do to the deck because the target is certainly on them. (especially after the MD Duelist cup is over) Thank you for watching! Lets touch back when the dueliest cup is over discuss how SE looks after the banlist drops and revisit this awesome topic. Thanks for watching!

Might have to start playing upstart in my Kashtira deck on MD, any way to improve consistent is great for the deck but it hurts that prosperity is limited. I don't like using desires or extrav for it those just ruin your gameplan if they banish the wrong cards. That could be a cool video to look into, what are the odds of extrav or desires in banishing your main deck or extra deck cards

@slimbenhamadi

3 ай бұрын

Playing upstart doesn't apply for this examples because playing upstart means ur playing a 37 cards list so that means that has different stats of his own

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes pot odds are a video that is in the works and will be published very early next month . I have lots of data on them and compiled a bunch of stuff. Just need some editing time and have 1 or 2 videos coming before that one Great idea!

@CLove-mo7cc

3 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGaming Awesome that would be great! Another thing that would be interesting to see odds of prosperity in its 3/6 card deck dig in searching say your one of field spell or your two of E-Teleport.

Hey man! Great video! I do have a question because I can’t figure it out. Let’s say I play a 42 card deck. I have a 5 card hand. One of those is a pot of prosperity. I have 6, 1 card starters in my 37 remaining card. What is the % chance that pot of prosperity reveals one of those 6?

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

68.329% it reveals at least one or more of your starters. 43.852% chance it hits exactly 1 of your starters. 31.671% chance you don't hit any of your starters. If you trimmed your deck to a 40 card deck it would go from 68.329% to 70.735% chance. Hope this helps! Thanks for watching!

Hi, can you explain pot of desire please and its odds of drawing so and so cards. Thanks!

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes! This has been a highly requested topic. And i have placed it in my que coming around April 1st should be ready. I have 2 vids coming out before that one stay tuned! Thanks for watching! And great suggestion!

Considering the amount of times ive had 3 maxx c in my opening hand in MD, i should maybe play the lottery

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

😅 rough! thats 1 outta 1000 every time lol. Yeah you should channel that luck into something the lottery! if you win send me some dr. pepper or something don't forget where you came from :D

The hero we actually know we needed

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

:) Thanks. Your comment made me smile and made my night.

We can push the analysis for bricking on duplicates even further: is there a card that's better than the 3rd copy of staple x, considering the chance of bricking on duplicates? In the format right now, I don't think you can cut a nib or an ash because you're already playing 18+ handtraps/go 2nd cards like 3x each of nib, ash, veiler, imperm, mourner, talents/droll. The other handtraps like D.D. crow, belle, meister, ogre, and fantasmay are much worse than the 2% chance to brick for playing a 3-of. Even droll is pretty desperate since the standard snake eye combo plays through droll.

My guy just mathematically proved that it really is better to see some cards "sometimes but not all the time" 😂 (running 2-offs)

14:45 me in Magic the gathering trying to draw just one of the 19 forests in my deck on turn 7 of quick draft elimination round

1:24 So where do I go to get a refund on my luck stat? Seeing double triples is not particularly uncommon for me. Hell, I've drawn six one-offs out of a sixty card deck that, because of their relationship to each other, caused me to have no playable cards outside of the literal Garnet. My obscenely impossible statistics are why doubling up on Garnets are an actual consideration because my luck is legitimately that bad. Also yes, I've drawn triple doubles before. A lot, i fact...

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Must be part of that "Birthday Paradox" i was mentioning. How many playset 3 copies of cards do you run in your decks? Might be the reason why doubles keep appearing in your hands. Thank you for watching!

what a great ppt

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thanks! Took a bit of time to make glad you enjoyed it! 🙂

I play an exodia ftk deck in goat format and the best I’ve ever drawn off the bat is 4 pieces

You are an absolute tresure

9:33 Other way around. Royal flush is more likely.

i believe your friend, literally anytime I play an exodia deck now im filming all my first draws!!! Its funny because just because its unlikely doesnt mean it didnt happen people have no faith these days :P lmao

Professor I do not understand the relation with the birthday paradox and playsets at all

Your voice sounds like spike spencer who voices sninji in nge

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

wow neo geneses i havent gotten around to seeing that anime yet! is it any good? your the 2nd person i heard mention that anime to me this week lol what are the odds? Thanks for watching!

whats ur opinion on running draw cards on decks with more than 40 cards in them?

My unluckiest hand would be when i oppened 3 ash 2 max c...

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Full House in Poker ;)

Gotta love probability.

Wow this made me feel more unlucky when i brick

the bday paradox is not a paradox for me lmfao, in college, at home, i have a 100% chance of having someone with the same bday in the same building (housemate has same bday) i just mean i am unaffected by its conclusions cuz i’m used to it, not that it doesn’t exist

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

:D that's funny. Yeah I remember in elementary school I sat next to someone who shared my B-day and still remember him to this day just because of that fact. Your probably never going to forget your housemate now. Thanks for watching the video!

Drawing all five pieces of Exodia is easy. If you want something more detailed than a sketch, though, that's a bit harder.

Could you explain how to add up the percentages under the “birthday paradox” section? Or is it just 3.64+3.64 for each playset?

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

The equation to not brick is (37/39) x (35/38) x (33/37) x (31/36) = .671. This is your "non brick" chance. So the inverse is exactly .329 which I rounded to .33 or 1/3 in the video to make explaining easier.

Thanks. I'm trying to make sense of everything you said. So for swordsoul in a 40 card deck, the math would work out then that I want 7-8 playsets of a card, and then choose 1-of's and 2-of's for the rest? 3-of's: 1. Mo ye 2. Emergence 3. Longyuan 4. Ashuna 5. Ash 6. Veiler 7. Imperm 8. Nib Also for clarification, at 5:10 you said more than 8 playsets (so exclusive of 8), your 5 turns to 4. and at 5:00 you stated than when you get to about 8 playsets your 5 turns to 4. Does the 5 turn to 4 at 8 playsets inclusive of 8 or exclusive of 8?

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Yes to clarify sorry at exactly 8 playsets 1 out of every 3 games your 5 card hand becomes a 4 card hand. You have about 66.5% chance to safely draw all different cards which means you have a 33.5% chance to draw doubles of at least 1 card. Also, Imperm should not count as a playset even though it is a playset. This is because if you get doubles of imperm you can still use both on your turn or opponents turn so long as you don't have any monsters' and not limited to once per turn so in your example above you could run 1 more playset if you wanted before you go above the 66% mark. Imp doesn't really "clog" your hand like the other cards can. Hope this clarifies and helps. Thanks for watching!

@KeefeTankeh

3 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGaming Thanks so much! Your content is so informative! Thank you for the feedback and really appreciate the time and effort you put into all of your videos. I watched all of your yugioh ones!! :)

I've had 3 ash in my hand before

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

That's basically a 1/1000 chance really for that to happen! ouch! But i guess when you play so many games eventually that will pop up and psychology says we remember the weird/bad hands more than regular hands.

If youre not a Duel Links player could you at least do one video on Live Twins? I feel like i either always draw ALL twins or NO Twins. Feels like ive tried every variation of 7-12 starters in 20, 22, 24 card decks

Do you have a graph or something that would let us see the chance of seeing any 1 double copy of a card in our hand? You say that at 8 you are starting to see doubles in one out of three hands, but what about 7? 6? 5?

@JustPlayDecay

3 ай бұрын

As well as for 60 card decks

It's actually always 50/50

I’ve hit the .10% many many times

9:31 perhaps the opposite?

I guess im a master mason cuz I brick like it's my job

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

lmfaoooo :D . Thank you for watching and making me laugh!

I mean he could have drawn that Exodia hand, here's a much more unlikey story that actually happened: I was playing against runick and he milled 24 from my deck they were all stacked 3 of 3of 3of 2 of etc I scooped and the next 6 cards were also stacked the top 30 cards were all fucking stacked. This was post side I had power shuffled and regular shuffled and he had cut my deck...

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Wow that's insane! That's just some external forces going against you at that point 😅

@jean-philippegrignom6479

3 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGaming I was baffled, everyone in the game store was going crazy

Bro at the end of video u say that mill can help increase chance of getting card that we need. Well i think its not correct since it also have a chance to remove the card we need from the deck.

@starboy5996

3 ай бұрын

Anyway have u ever try to use statistic test to see if something is statistically significant than the other? i think i would be a great idea ^^

So 1.28% to see 2/2 in your hand, I’ve drawn double Increase for the fifth time in previous 2 hours, so is this either proof that master duel’s “shuffle” system is extremely rigged or am i just that unlucky lmao

8:12-8:52 could have been said in a simple 5 second sentence lol

video games are cool

Master duel rng enters chat

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

🤣

you lagged on the last part of the video

Master duel is soooo rigged

7:30 you say running many 1 card copies is bad but you never explain why lmao you just talk about drawing exodia for no reason lmao, like we all know it’s stupid rare to do like why did we have to talk about it for 2 minutes, and then you never even finish your point as to why 1 ofs are bad…??

@Ezj9727

3 ай бұрын

All you say is “I hope they are searchers” like……? That’s not even information nor is it helpful tips lmao like what was the whole point of that segment of the video other than tell me the odds of drawing exodia in my opening hand as if that’s useful to me

@JessePerezStrategyGaming

3 ай бұрын

Thanks for the input! I'll try to make the tips more practical and less about Exodia's odds next time. 😅I guess I got a little carried away from the point and provided a poor example. I should have shown the odds of opening 1 ofs that combo together. So in that perspective its 1 Piece / exactly 1 of 5 one ofs-=50.665% 2 pieces/ exactly 2 ofs 5 one ofs = 10.87% 3 pieces/ exactly 3 of 5 one ofs = 0.931% 4 pieces / exactly 4 of 5 one ofs = 0.027% all 5 pieces / hitting all 5 of 5 one ofs neede.d for any such combo = .000152% or 1/658008 The most relevant piece of info is probably the 2 of 5 one ofs which shows up at only a mere 10% and that should be telling about 1 ofs. Thanks for the comment and thanks for watching. Hope this was a bit clearer.

@Ezj9727

3 ай бұрын

@@JessePerezStrategyGamingit’s a great video regardless