What an absolutely intriguing and clean breakdown of the comparisons. Well done sir, I applaud you 👏👏

@EPBResearch

Жыл бұрын

Thanks for watching!

@AnonYmous-vm5ls

Жыл бұрын

this video was bonkers!!!

@realestatemindset

Жыл бұрын

@@AnonYmous-vm5ls 😂 love you dude

@AnonYmous-vm5ls

Жыл бұрын

@@realestatemindset Hey brother give me a shout out next video. Juan from Miami. Me and my fiance watch your videos everyday. Take care bro

@cjstock5978

Жыл бұрын

Travis from RE Mindset sent me here. Love the video, new subscriber now!

2008 had garbage loans adjustable rate, where the borrower was actually able to "state" their income. This means if you tried to get an auto loan, you would get declined, but if you apply for a home loan refinance you could literally lie about your income. This coupled adjustable loans. In 2021, 95% of mortgages taken were fixed and income was vetted. In addition government loans like FHA are now assumable. This means if you have a 2.5% rate, and are forced to sell, a potential buyer can qualify for your current rate. So Foreclosures will not be anywhere near 2008. Common sense facts over trends and graphs people

@stupidd6513

Жыл бұрын

I was at WF in 2008, trying to help underwater homeowners with HARP. What a nightmare.

The big mistake that was made was keeping interest rates at or near zero for so long

@bradwhitt6768

Жыл бұрын

yes and fed MBS buying. They essentially bought all the subprime that would have been in derivatives of the last housing market crash. This crash will be worse.

@cjstock5978

Жыл бұрын

Totally agree Bob, I remember thinking in 2021, what is the fed doing, and I am very far from a financial guru. The pros should have seen this coming and changed course a year before they did.

@jamesnguyen7069

Жыл бұрын

"big mistake" yay it was literally planned dude...

@mikefleek9259

Жыл бұрын

And many "amateur investors" speculated in real estate . Glad to see prices normalizing, I need a retirement home.

@buddie623

Жыл бұрын

Not sure it was by accident. The county tax collector are raking in billions. This is criminal. Japan kept rates near zero. The CPI is fake. Rates should never be below CPI. There hasn't been incentives to save money for decades. This was man made deliberately.

Thank you! I am facinated by how well you set up those videos!

Crystal clear and extremely informative video as always. Thank you!

such a great video, Love this series so much! I have turned on my loudest notifiction for you!

Great concise video as always. Keep up the production quality!

Fantastic video!!! Touch a few point we discussed on your twitter! Keep up the fantastic work man!

My friend, you just earned a new subscriber. Amazing video of breaking it down. Cheers!

Really enjoy and appreciate your content and videos. Thank you!

Could you do a video on what sectors will thrive coming out of this recession and/or add context of what is the ideal reaction to these negative market trends? Excellent videos by the way. Just interested in options to address these trends.

quality content with great info I haven’t heard anywhere else! You da best!!

Really great info keep up the good work

Very very well done video! Thank you

Well, I subscribed. Best detailed explanation of all of this so far. Incredible quality. *Real Estate Mindset* sent me 👍

Love the visuals, getting better with each video!

such a great informative video. thanks

Love the clear & concise info and sweet graphics. Great work!

Nice work! Keep ‘em coming

This is great man. Heard you on the Hidden Forces podcast and have been reading all of your stuff since then.

Amazing video. Well worth subscribing to. Thank you for such a great video. 👍

Uhhh yeah, that's not only good economic analysis, but your presentation skills and video transition skills are perfect. You don't see this very often at all.

Dude these videos are fantastic. Pure data, none of the finance youtuber bullshit. Got my sub!

Great data driven info!! Nice job!!

Another excellent video. Thanks Eric.

Thanks brother. That perspective was very helpful.

Just started subscribing the channel This channel is a pure gem I think

Your videos are amazing. Subbed!

Thank you. Excellent insight!

Really instructive video! Would it be possible to do a similar analysis of the UK housing market. Looks to me after brief research that the demand of homes is still above the supply so I guess it's an indicator that prices can only increase? What are your thoughts?

Thanks for posting.

Very well done video. Great voice too! 😊 Thanks for the information

Thanks for the great video

Wonderful all-round analysis. Thanks a lot.

Excellent video! Great content, great presentation, and your narration is on point.

Excellent content!

Such great content, thank you so much!!!

Best video on housing and economics I've seen in awhile. Keep up the good work!

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

I am messaging you from a direct source we had like to connect with you else where. What is your email ? Our home price are negotiable worth $100,000

5:04 LOL I love how you have a pokemon card as financial assets

I really like your animation of charts and graphs what software do you use to make it? Thanks

This was awesome. Well done !

Great data and analysis. Heard some new ideas here that no one else is talking about.

Great job sir, food for thought

Love the way you explain it! Would you mind sharing what Software you use for creating these grafics?

great content!

Beautifully done.

This is my new favorite channel!

thanks.. I really learn alot from your videos .. It is simple and more faster to understand than taking class ..

Good video. An important point is that change Real M2 Growth rate, is not the same as change in Real M2. This is not a minor point as the Fed obfuscated their path on balance sheet reduction, delaying settlement (by choice not mandatory process), while constantly sending governors out to talk about reduction while doing almost none

Excellent Video i really picked up alot of gems.. Thanks

That was a ton of data packed into this video, well done and earned my sub! On a very minor side note: locals pronounce the a in Nevada like the a in apple, not like the aw in saw.

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

I am messaging you from a direct source we had like to connect with you else where. What is your email ? Our home price are negotiable worth $100,000

Your content is great - straight to the point !

@EPBResearch

Жыл бұрын

Thanks, Mike!

Top notch graphics and concise analysis

I love Love LOVE your videos. VERY enlightening and very well done :) You hard work is greatly appreciated. :)

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

I am messaging you from a direct source we had like to connect with you else where. What is your email ? Our home price are negotiable worth $100,000

Thanks for once again educating us and sharing your knowledge in such a concise and clear manner. Curious to know if the share of homes bought by institutional buyers and speculators is large enough to have a meaningful on existing supply should they decide to liquidate. I have seen some stats suggesting that their share is not large enough.

Dude, what software do you use for charts and/or video editing? Your slides look awesome af 🙌🏻

These videos are so good. Please keep us updated on the housing market and this data.

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

I am messaging you from a direct source we had like to connect with you else where. What is your email ? Our home price are negotiable worth $100,000

Keep this up! I really enjoy the way you explain things :)

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

I am messaging you from a direct source we had like to connect with you else where. What is your email ? Our home price are negotiable worth $100,000

First time I've used the "Shift

Again great work! What do you think of the UK housing market? Similar (but not the same) variables as in the US

Very informative, and you are correct about large companies like American Homes for Rent are the unknown component this go round. These companies bought thousands of homes for cash, so interest rates are of no consequence to them. Also, we should include the large influx of foreign buyers, particularly Chinese and Indian that are also cash buyers. The question is, will these groups gobble up homes at the greatly reduced prices that eventually will come or will they be satisfied with their current holdings ? Many builders have ceased building as many buyers have backed out of contracts to buy, so the chance of a major "glut" seems less than in 2005-2007. And lastly, all real estate is local, so none of this applies to some areas, at worst, they stay flat for awhile.

Amazing content

Amazing presentation

This is an awesome video. What app did you use to make the presentation ?

Dude, you’re awesome.

These videos are amazing

The biggest difference between 2008 and today is that mortgage rate was the leading factor in 2008, whereas job-loss or mass layoff will be the single most important factor to determine we will have another correction.

@truthaboveall7988

Жыл бұрын

No the loss of $ in the coffers after spending 8T to lose wars in Middle East the GFC & covid grift /we r going to c an economic paradigm shift which we were meant to have post GFC but Obama joined the republicans & so we ended up w Wall St in power just as the GOP loves it /trump gutting Dodd frank helped wall st buy homes & that cost is the highest print on CPI which the fed is battling w old data so they will break it all as usual since Great Depression

@jcpt928

Жыл бұрын

This. There is very little correlation, if any, between what happened in 2008, and what MIGHT happen soon.

Solid content

I love to hear an analysis of the Canadian housing market too, it is rarely talked about but totally out of control!!! We have had 40% price increases or more in housing prices during the pandemic and I think your analysis of it would be very interesting

Is it possible to do a similar video on the Canadian housing market? Great stuff 👏

Great video… even I understood it!

Great difference regarding mortgage approvals between 2006-08 and today's market. The banks are way more cautious approving loans to people, therefore, the majority of people who bought house(s) in the last 2 years, were well qualified. Consequently, way less foreclosures in the near future. Which was another contribution to the 2008 crisis.

wow amazing video!!! I study IB at Copenhagen and would like to work for you one day. A question I have. Dont you think the inflation will force people to take loans to get through the high price surge? and thereby the debt to GDP will increase above 151

I like that you are not yelling "crash is coming" like the other KZreadrs but rather present the data objectively.

when fed rate goes to 4% people are going to be dumping their 2nd and 3rd properties. alot of people with variable rates or rate renewals coming up will be having a fire sale.

@chrispaul1117

Жыл бұрын

​@@NikolaiRay renters will double and triple up. Learn from the illegals. Carlton Sheets forgot to add that in.

@chrispaul1117

Жыл бұрын

@@NikolaiRay why is rent growth going up when house values drop and supply comes on line kzread.info/dash/bejne/e45ql9WGYJSxZrg.html

@hospitaladministrator3359

Жыл бұрын

@@NikolaiRay income would need to keep up with that

@zenfuri89

Жыл бұрын

@@NikolaiRay people will be upside down on their loans. Nobody is going to pay the super sky high rent while they hold a depreciating asset makes Zero Sense.

@JC-cf4rs

Жыл бұрын

@@NikolaiRay rents will be dropping soon, sorry but that thesis won’t hold water

Good analysis. To expand on your point about household consumer debt, couldnt consumer debt contribute to a banking system issue? Compared to mortgages, consumer loans are typically unsecured. Many banks have a material concentration of this debt relative to capital. Sure, the interest in these products aren’t being packaged and securitized to the degree mortgage loans are, so perhaps systemic risk is more limited, but there certainly is a market these securities. Nonbank lenders of consumer debt typically hold significantly less capital and reserves than banks to cushion against high default risk and credit losses. Curious as to your thoughts. Edited to improve question clarity

I really love your content, the best channel for knowledge about macroeconomics. Just a suggestion to consider, but personally I'd love to see clear cut videos with simple explanations about how macroeconomics generally work, how different parts come together, so a diligent person can make up his own mind about what is about to happen on the long term in the economy. Anyways, great content about recent developments as always.

@alp.9672

Жыл бұрын

No, this video was great. There are plenty other channels if this was too difficult for you.

@doctorsofficecafe

Жыл бұрын

Add George Gammon to your viewing list. He also has excellent whiteboard presentations explaining macro.

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

I am messaging you from a direct source we had like to connect with you else where. What is your email ?

You got my sub

enjoyed your interview on kitko.

One of the things to remember is that CA has a cap on property tax growth. Property tax can by law only go up by 2% per year if you don’t sell the property. I talked to a lot of investors who bought 5 years ago and they are paying 20% less property tax than their neighbors. By selling, you lose that property tax discount. As long as the cash flow is good, a lot of people still want to hold on to their investment properties

@johnsmith-dh9mu

Жыл бұрын

Conjecture

@networth00

Жыл бұрын

Did you know you can carry that low property tax rate with you for the next house you buy, if they're over 55yo? Talk about stoopid california laws. Prop 19.

@curtissharris8914

Жыл бұрын

@@networth00 why so I intend to use it this year, will save me about 500 a month.

Fantastic video! Do you think the fed is trying to crash housing to save affordability and consumer? Mbs liquidation ramp up in sept

I really enjoyed the video, everything is explained well and your content is amazing Is there a book where I can find this type of information or course? Keep up man🔥🔥

@EPBResearch

Жыл бұрын

I will have courses available soon

@yufu9875

Жыл бұрын

@@EPBResearch keep us posted!! Hands up

So glad I found this channel, he’s like the student that teaches better than the teacher does

Thank you for this! At 67, I'm looking to finally buy my first home - had to move out of California to Minnesota first. This kind of info is super helpful!

@RogueTravel

Жыл бұрын

I’d wait a little bit if you can

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

Do you want to buy a home. ?

@pings007

Жыл бұрын

Can you wait another 3 months?

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

@@pings007 hey

@HA-nx5qn

Жыл бұрын

Why waste your time here? If I were your age I 💯 would bounce to the Philippines or another south East Asian country and buy there cheaper and MUCH better quality construction that the crappy materials used in 99% of American homes. Marry some 19 year old Asian beauty and enjoy my golden years😄

Great work. I like the succinct way that you break down this complex information. Keep it coming. Bravo!

Great explanation, but you buried the lead. The simple biggest factor in downward pressure is a reduction in buyer purchasing power due to the Fed raising rates so fast, and the rest of it just makes that worse. Increased interest rates have already reduced buyer purchasing power by 40%+. 1) Take any loan calculator you prefer, calculate the monthly payment on a $1m mortgage with rates in March 2022. 2) Then, raise the interest rate to todays/next hike rates instead, but keep the same monthly payment you had before. This will force you to lower the house price down from $1m to below $600k….because that same buyer who could afford a $1m house in March can only afford a $585k%+\- today. Simple math. This is the same house, with the same down payment, same credit, same monthly payment, but the buyer pays more in interest and less in purchase price. People are often approved for around 40% of their income, and they tend to buy as much house as they can. The Fed has gutted buyer purchasing power, prices are forced to follow, but cash buyers are still buying with 10% price reduction. It will be 40% price reduction by next year from the steps the Fed has ALREADY taken, regardless of everything else in the video. QT is awful for the FIRE sector + bad for crypto because the Fed is draining liquidity, not enough money to support these asset prices. The top is in for Real Estate, and the Fed is going to resist lowering interest rates below 2% ever again, so it’s not coming back. There won’t be the foreclosures we saw last time because no NINA loans, but prices are crashing in slow motion….sell it all, and sell it now

@jamesnguyen7069

Жыл бұрын

a war will kill the market

@jonunderwood2476

Жыл бұрын

Housing prices are dictated by purchasing power, how much house you can buy fir the payment you can afford. I don’t see a war on the horizon for the US that will fundamentally affect that, but an increase in interest rates by the Fed affects it same day.

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

I am messaging you from a direct source we had like to connect with you else where. What is your email ?

@MarketFund2k

Жыл бұрын

You're on to something here, but let's put it in reverse shall we? The homebuyer now can afford the $600k house, but what about all of the people who already bought the $1M house in the last couple years and elected for the variable interest rate loan? Now they're in a $1M house when they could only really afford 60% of that house = they really can't afford the house they're in. So, you can see how the defaults are looming and will start rolling in. Thankfully there's fewer variable interest rate loans out there now as compared to GFC and no more teaser rates on subprime adjustables (that I've heard of) but what's the difference if the teaser rate expires and your interest % jumps to double the rate or the FED does it for you? It may not be of equal magnitude to previous, but the mechanism is starting to resemble the issues of yesteryear. As far as CDOs and CDS, do you think these instruments went away? The big banks aren't required to disclose their inner workings. You better believe they've been cooking up new schemes in the past 14 years. How do I know? Do you remember in 2020 and 2021 when the investment banks were reporting record profits off their trading desks? How do you think they made those profits? The most lucrative parts of the market are the esoteric fixed income markets that nobody understands besides maybe the lawyers who write the agreements. Is this true? I don't know, I can't check, but this is what happened last time and I don't see any change in incentives for these degenerate gambler types that grace the halls of Wall Street. Why do I think this? How many people have you heard say that it's different this time, it's not at all like the last housing crash? Credit scores are better this time. There's no way anything could go wrong. You have to offer $50 grand above asking for the house to buy it sight unseen and skip any inspection whatsoever. People will be writing books about this crash in future decades and wonder how we missed the signs that were so obvious, but we are too busy looking backwards, patting ourselves on the back because we're so much smarter now, and ignoring the reality of the situation that's right in front of our face. This crash will be spectacular. Will it be as bad as last time? Honestly, what's the utility in guessing at something unknowable. This time the FED can't bail everybody out again. If it unleashes a tsunami of liquidity in sufficient size to backstop every bad asset, inflation will flare up again worse this time. The FED CANNOT DO THIS and they're finally starting to realize it.

@markrealestateagent

Жыл бұрын

@@MarketFund2k you are current

Where can I find a similar analysis for Canada?

Such a great video. Well done! Totally puts to rest the main-stream narrative that we have a housing shortage when the months supply of homes is skyrocketing

@spatialinterpretations449

Жыл бұрын

It is more to do with affordability. Homeless is up up up up.....

@herlanrulz

Жыл бұрын

oh don't get it twisted, there are supply issues. It's caused almost exclusively because of all the corporate equity parked in single family homes + all the wanna be real estate moguls buying up house after house and then renting them out to pay for their mortgages. The ones in my rural area have 30-80 single family homes each. Buying up entire areas, then renting to families or putting them on 1 week at a time rental websites to pay for themselves. It's a dogfight to try and get a house before one of them snatch em up with their inside connections.

@Asian0Riceballs

Жыл бұрын

I’m I think that’s a misleading statement. Supply is going up because rapidly increasing interest rates are sending people to the sidelines in droves. It’s not like construction companies have ramped up building new homes across the USA.

@e.h.4933

Жыл бұрын

It's still a shortage in affordable housing. If people can't/won't enter the market, it doesn't matter how many new homes there are if the people who need a new home (or any home) can't afford it.

Bro, these videos are the smartest thing I've ever seen on KZread

One thing to also note, the high spike or MTG rates might deter future buyers. Today, ARM loans make up 10 percent of the market share of mortgage debt compared to 30 percent in 2008. Not to mention ARM loans post-08 guarantee a fixed rate for the first 7-10 years vs pre-08 where they had a shorter time period. I think this will reduce the possibility of a banking crisis as the issue with paying off loans won't be a problem for current home owners. It's interesting to see the delay in the prices falling, existing home won't move because of great fixed rates (or even ARM purchased within the last 7-10 years). Simply a lack of demand for new homes whether because of withdrawn liquidity or high spike in mortgage rates, i think sets up a recipe for housing correction but not sure about a major 'crash'.

@jwfriar

Жыл бұрын

Agree - his analysis doesn’t take into account the fact that people aren’t underwater and can survive this. They won’t be listing homes just of a short term downturn bc they have a great rate and tons of equity. 2008 was a house of cards that tumbled in on itself. Also, we still have historically undersupplied housing demand. There’s still a ton of money on the sideline waiting for some price softening, but they are ready to hop back in and buoy prices. Maybe $20k of student loan forgiveness will get them back in the market faster too.

@trappart9209

7 ай бұрын

Thanks for your opinions, it was interesting to have other perspectives

I’m already seeing prices drop in my area (St.Louis, MO) I’m very excited to get a nice house under 170k next year. I’m already seeing them in the 160-190k range

Do you have any data on private debt from equity backed loans? Would that play into the equation if home values continue to drop?

_"Today, we have _*_financial innovation_*_ ..."_ Yes, we certainly do, don't we? 😂

2:37 While not a large percentage surely the maintenance/renovation market for construction on existing homes is quite high, atleast in Aus.

Outstanding video full of excellent analysis. I don't know how people can't see the similarities. Sure, one was let's say an aluminum baseball bat and this one's a wooden cricket bat but it's still coming right at us in the same way! If I may recommend something though, I think the "tearing apart" transitions between charts are a bit harsh and distracting, but that could just be me :-).

Amazing visuals. Not sure about your closing statement regarding private vs. public debt though. It's possible I misunderstood the statement. Many people have purchased homes while their value was inflated and most of that was by going into debt, the investment firms did the same and are expecting to receive rent. But many are being laid off and not able to afford daily needs due to inflation. The historical solution is to move back in with family. (AKA reduced need for high priced homes. This will greatly affect both private & public investors.) Note the larger chance for moving in with family due to how the pandemic made people feel.

While I agree the housing market downturn will be unlikely to cause a banking crisis, as you pointed out we're dealing with financial issues beyond housing this time. A bubble in say consumer revolving credit, or auto debt, commercial debt and real estate, or any combination of, could exacerbate a housing downturn and risk another global meltdown. It is in a sense an everything bubble.

@mjsmjs7905

Жыл бұрын

In New Hampshire prices are going through the roof, and not coming down anytime soon. Inventory not there.

@scottandrews947

Жыл бұрын

@@mjsmjs7905 This is false. New Hampshire housing prices are already falling significantly. Median home sales prices are plummeting.

@rockfire1669

Жыл бұрын

@JJ Macky you are right in it not being a complete fallout, however it will be more fallout than 2008

@mjsmjs7905

Жыл бұрын

@@rockfire1669 na, 2008 was the perfect storm, and you saw it coming too, housing prices were doubling every year it wasn't sustainable, then wapp! Everything crashed at the same time stock market, housing market, job market. You lost your job and your 401k was evaporated, if things get that bad it'll be Armageddon.

I didn't hear you mention unemployment. In the late 2,000's the unemployment rate got up to 10% causing people to not be able to pay their mortgage which then became record foreclosures. If unemployment goes up as the Fed has indicated it will, then housing bubble 2.0

@2:15 90% of that 11 month house supply is basically concrete slabs and not complete houses. these builders can leave it like that with little loss for quite a while too.

I think it's the same situation, showing itself differently. The previous bubble was concentrated for a number of reasons: The states with large growth offered financial incentives for small businesses, tax breaks, and other incentives to get people to move from the low concentration states. Those that had the financial ability to move did so, even if it was just enough to do it and not be able to afford a new home. Government incentive prior to 2008 was focused on the institutional sector, which is why the bubble was concentrated there. However, now with quantitative easing and other Fed policies, the "remedy" is being directed at the populace. Those with the means to do so (the upper-middle class is mostly evenly distributed in the US) purchased homes even though the market wasn't favorable. This can, IMO, only lead to a liquidity crisis where cash outflow from citizens makes it's way into institutional debt and by the time this current bubble begins to collapse, it's going to be an instructional problem all over again. No matter how hard The Gov't tries, if they don't put people first, people will fail, and they'll be right back to cleaning up a state and federal level mess!