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Will Taiwan Cause a World War?

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Bibliography:
Asian Waters by Humphrey Hawksely
Asia's Cauldron by Robert Kaplan
Destined for War by Graham Allison
Disunited Nations by Peter Zeihan
World Order by Henry Kissinger
China's Asian Dream by Tom Miller
China, a History by John Keay
The Best of Times and the Worst of Times by Michael Burleigh
The 3D Gospel by
The Great Wave by David Hackett Fischer
War in Human Civilization by Azar Ghat
The Next 100 Years by George Friedman
The BBC Great War, 1964
Battle Cry of Freedom by James McPherson
Tragedy and Hope by Carroll Quigley
Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin

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  • @ladosdominik1506
    @ladosdominik15062 жыл бұрын

    I really love your videos But as a marketing person a recommendation: don't release them in batches, but divide the release date out in time, it helps the algorithm quite a bit.

  • @DJ1573

    @DJ1573

    2 жыл бұрын

    Several quick releases increase interaction and "staying on the channel" so the algorithm gets boosted, your method would not push the algorithm in any way

  • @sharkronical

    @sharkronical

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@DJ1573 I'd say the contrary is true. When KZreadrs suddenly disappear, like Scarce or CallMeCarson, you see them disappear, but never alerted immediately when they return as the algorithm simply thinks they are gone for good, and would better off promoting "new releases" and get attached to them the longer the gone KZreadrs are away. There's a reason why quantity over quality is so much boosted by the algorithm.

  • @MountainDewbies

    @MountainDewbies

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@DJ1573 I don’t think this is true at all

  • @ladosdominik1506

    @ladosdominik1506

    2 жыл бұрын

    @xFangs I do not work on KZread, but I know how the algorithm works, as my work in marketing is connected to it. The decision is ultimately in his hands, I just shared what I know.

  • @DJ1573

    @DJ1573

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@sharkronical Do you see any difference in the content Whatifaltist creates and those channels you named? But yeah sure the YT algorithm does not put viewers into interest groups to determine what is relevant in their content bubble ;)

  • @tree48203
    @tree482032 жыл бұрын

    I love how you’re mic can go from sounding good in one video, to being locked in a safe the next

  • @yeeyee5057

    @yeeyee5057

    2 жыл бұрын

    Tbf I like the locked in a safe voice :)

  • @vejet

    @vejet

    2 жыл бұрын

    Maybe he's just emulating what he will do should this conflict come to pass and escalate 🤷‍♂

  • @JonatasAdoM

    @JonatasAdoM

    2 жыл бұрын

    He must be recording each video in a different place as to stay safe. Perhaps he's testing the bunker WiFi lol

  • @joshuawells835
    @joshuawells8352 жыл бұрын

    I took a course on Modern China and according to my professor, there was a Chinese politician who said that it would be easier for the PRC to buy Taiwan than to conquer it. There is also some discrepancies in the One China Policy, as to travel to Taiwan from the mainland, one flies through the international terminal of Chinese airports rather than a domestic flight.

  • @tchunzulltsai5926

    @tchunzulltsai5926

    2 жыл бұрын

    The problem is that China needs to use its money wisely to direct the politics of Taiwan to its favor. In the first decade of 21 century it somehow worked. But now it seems with more money they pour, the more Taiwanese people are against China. And yes it’s hilarious that we Taiwanese people are treated basically the same as any other foreigners in mainland. Other than we take the international flights, we are also barred from the hotels reserved for the Chinese. It shows that China and Taiwan are de facto two different countries, they just don’t want to admit it.

  • @meejinhuang

    @meejinhuang

    2 жыл бұрын

    That politician is ignorant because Taiwan won't be for sale. This is the type of thinking people in China have.

  • @sinoroman

    @sinoroman

    2 жыл бұрын

    china will take the island eventually, not sure by which means but it will happen

  • @ennui9745

    @ennui9745

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@sinoroman I wouldn't be so sure.

  • @andreilin113

    @andreilin113

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@meejinhuang did you not understand the point of the comment?

  • @settekwan2708
    @settekwan27082 жыл бұрын

    I think the Ukrainian situation might make things more complicated. Since if Russia went to war with Ukraine and its allies (Namely U.S. and key NATO member countries), U.S. 's foreign policy might take a drastic turn and shift its focus on Europe and China might see it as a good window to take action on Taiwan while under-estimating U.S 's Two-front war capacity and accidentally trigger WWIII.

  • @badduka198

    @badduka198

    2 жыл бұрын

    Can't wait to die in a nuclear war

  • @settekwan2708

    @settekwan2708

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@badduka198 Least you are not alone

  • @epicgamerzfail4575

    @epicgamerzfail4575

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@badduka198 maybe it's hopeful thinking, but I think the world powers would be smart enough to not use nukes during ww3. I mean we made it this far without having to use them. If any nukes get dropped, it'll be by a smaller country that doesn't realize the consequences as much/is less stable

  • @epicgamerzfail4575

    @epicgamerzfail4575

    2 жыл бұрын

    "Underestimating U.S.-s Two Front war capacity" I think you may be overestimating actually. The us will need help from its allies (Europe in the west and India in the east) if it has any hopes in winning a two front war with Russia/China. The us has no hope in taking on both nations on their own

  • @shiny_teddiursa

    @shiny_teddiursa

    2 жыл бұрын

    Yeah if the US fully responds against Russia in Ukraine than I highly doubt Russia would ever switch to an American ally in a future Chinese conflict. Also Japan is a much weaker enemy than an industrialized China, the US will definitely need to fully militarize its allies in Asia if it wants to win a two front war

  • @igavrilov
    @igavrilov2 жыл бұрын

    I think it's incorrect to paint Taiwan as only having symbolic importance, with all its critical industry, especially semiconductors

  • @peterdisabella2156

    @peterdisabella2156

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Wolf78033 TSMC's market share of semiconductors is about 50% with a share of 90% of the most advanced ones. With semiconductors being vital to many industries. Semiconductor capacity is not something that countries can just will into existence either as it takes years of investment to get fabs going (china is currently trying but with little results at the moment). The Chinese cannot ignore this aspect of Taiwan.

  • @benharris7358

    @benharris7358

    2 жыл бұрын

    I think chip makers are diversifying their bases of operations. Intel is making a fab in Ohio. Also note that Taiwan does not hold a monopoly on chip making equipment manufacturing.

  • @hwong1776

    @hwong1776

    2 жыл бұрын

    Invading Taiwan for tsmc is like invading silicon Valley for Facebook.

  • @Low_commotion

    @Low_commotion

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@charlesmadre5568 True, but if those critical personnel are accidentally killed in the invasion (say if the attack was quicker than projected) the implicit-knowledge loss would be tremendous. Potentially it would set back electronics globally for 3 to 5 years. Of course, China doesn't want this either and so would probably not bomb the area around the plant. But accidents happen, the workers don't live at the plant by & large.

  • @Low_commotion

    @Low_commotion

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@benharris7358 TSMC is also building a fab stateside, but neither it nor the Intel fab are current afaik. Both are two generations behind.

  • @nateghast6456
    @nateghast64562 жыл бұрын

    11:46 I like how he included the Afghan resistance as a US ally in this map. Most would forget about them.

  • @nateghast6456

    @nateghast6456

    2 жыл бұрын

    Including our President.

  • @avroarchitect1793

    @avroarchitect1793

    2 жыл бұрын

    Afghan has been taken by the taliban, and the ANA was not anywhere near a solid military force while we were still there. that nation would be a no mans land in terms of being an ally or enemy.

  • @nateghast6456

    @nateghast6456

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@avroarchitect1793 Dude, the Taliban are already entering into diplomatic talks with China for economic deals. They want China to support them directly and become their ally. The rebels would be our natural ally if the country were included in the map. I'm merely pointing out that most would forget that the rebels either exist or would fight against them for their own sakes, meaning their taking bullets to fight our enemies. I think that makes them deserving of recognition.

  • @avroarchitect1793

    @avroarchitect1793

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@nateghast6456 the taliban rule to a degree that such rebellion is functionally a non factor in what we are considering here

  • @nateghast6456

    @nateghast6456

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@avroarchitect1793 I'm not trying to argue the significance of these forces. I am commenting that it is funny that they were included. It seems you misinterpreted my original comment noting the quaintness of their inclusion as a declaration of its importance.

  • @dariuszgaat5771
    @dariuszgaat57712 жыл бұрын

    There is a significant difference between the present day and the First World War. In those days, the birth rate in industrialized countries was still large, today it's not. Aging populations don't want to go to war.

  • @jackpott3402

    @jackpott3402

    2 жыл бұрын

    In Ukraine and Russia it's otherwise: people 18-30 don't want to fight AT ALL (complete indifference and lack of patriotism), older people in Russia are aggressively militaristic and chauvinistic and older people in Ukraine are more than willing to protect the country

  • @royhuang9715

    @royhuang9715

    2 жыл бұрын

    True but who cares. American got an aging population with birth rate no better than Chinese, still American went to two wars at the same time. You somehow have the false assumptions that any nation on this planet is ruled by “democracy”. Nobody is ruled by democracy, almost all are under some shape or form of republic where a few rich elites decide if the common people need to die for them. And that’s the sad part, also I’m pretty sure even in WW1 a lot of people in Germany France UK Russia doesn’t wanted to go to war. National pride is such a BS, most intelligent people would see through that BS pretty easily. They went to war because they can’t resist and now it doesn’t change. Also a every simple way to force people to go to war, keep a portion of population poor and pay those poor motherfuckers to die for you. US and China are both doing exactly that.

  • @Guts3570

    @Guts3570

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@royhuang9715 nobody in the US joins the military for money

  • @royhuang9715

    @royhuang9715

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Guts3570 yeah right keep telling yourself that BS. I knew a lot of guys who couldn’t afford college and went into the military FOR MONEY.

  • @JonatasAdoM

    @JonatasAdoM

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Guts3570 Perhaps the healthcare then.

  • @arthurturp9008
    @arthurturp90082 жыл бұрын

    I don't think the importance of the spratly islands should be this dismissed, they're a very useful tool in supremacy in the South China Sea and by extension the extremely important malacca strait

  • @peterwindhorst5775

    @peterwindhorst5775

    2 жыл бұрын

    Other than the shit ton of oil under the South China Sea - ergo why everyone wants it. The oil must flow.

  • @RigbyWilde

    @RigbyWilde

    2 жыл бұрын

    What China really does with these islands is putting a giant target on then

  • @tootlingturtle7254

    @tootlingturtle7254

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@RigbyWilde oil

  • @jonaspete

    @jonaspete

    2 жыл бұрын

    Taiwan (Republic of China) also put the claims on the South China sea as well.

  • @AeneasGemini

    @AeneasGemini

    2 жыл бұрын

    not to mention the importance of Taiwan in the production of semiconductors

  • @Brosowski
    @Brosowski2 жыл бұрын

    When in history class in highschool my teacher said that wars happen less because people are smarter. And that the reason why the cold war didn't turn into an actual war is because people were smart to see how wars are bad and kill people. He didn't didn't mention nuclear weapons! He simply said that people saw war as pricy and costly for human lives which stopped an actual war in the cold war. Very weird to me.

  • @TheSwordofStorms

    @TheSwordofStorms

    2 жыл бұрын

    Your high school history teacher didn't teach the concept "Mutually Assured Destruction"? That was curriculum in my public school, in the textbooks and always in the end of year exams

  • @alan5506

    @alan5506

    2 жыл бұрын

    We are not smarter than our ancestors. We are more knowledgeable compared to your average ancestor due to the internet and books. But the ruling class in the past was usually also well educated. I think your history teacher is completely wrong. Although, I wish he was right!

  • @FK-tz7gs

    @FK-tz7gs

    2 жыл бұрын

    Your history teacher sounds like an idiot

  • @Brosowski

    @Brosowski

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@TheSwordofStorms I mean it wasn't on the topic of the cold war but he mentioned it in class. He said this in Grade 11 which was our Ancient History class where we learn about ancient civilizations. But he basically said that we are smarter now than they were in the past because of the fact we don't wage constant wars and brought up that cold war remark. But he also teaches history in grade 10 which is the 20th century including the cold war. So that's what happened in context.

  • @Brosowski

    @Brosowski

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@FK-tz7gs he actually is really nice and he does say many true things. In fact that's the only thing I can complain about since he is mostly correct on what he says (and what I think to be true as well).

  • @alehaim
    @alehaim2 жыл бұрын

    Taiwan is not ruled by the KMT anymore, it is ruled by a wholly different party and the KMT is in the opposition

  • @deadpan_delivry7476

    @deadpan_delivry7476

    2 жыл бұрын

    Willing to give a pass on this because it is likely that from the Chinese perspective, they would consider the descendents of the KMT as still being the KMT.

  • @alevator606

    @alevator606

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@deadpan_delivry7476 That is complete false. If anything, KMT is closer to the CCP and its descendent DPP is a puppet of the globalist liberals, the same people running American leftism

  • @kvltntr00

    @kvltntr00

    2 жыл бұрын

    Just one of many uninformed, utterly simplistic statements in this "analysis" of the potential for a war over Taiwan. The DPP has reduced the military budget to less than 2% of GDP and has ended mandatory military service. Moreover, the military has traditionally been a bastion of support for the KMT, thus providing the DPP further political motivation to curb its influence. The US also refuses to sell the most advanced military equipment to Taiwan, such as the F-35 (Taiwan dodged a bullet with that piece of junk imo), due to the military's perceived sympathy towards the mainland and high level defections. If Taiwan is not prepared to fight its own wars, why the hell should the US? This channel is absolute trash and I hope it never comes up in my recs again.

  • @trollmcclure2659

    @trollmcclure2659

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@deadpan_delivry7476 The current ruling political party is not KMT but it's still the same government that kept its official country's name (Republic of China), it's the same as electing Republican or Democratic party, that doesn't change the identity of the USA.

  • @ejei1839
    @ejei18392 жыл бұрын

    A russo american alliance would be like a pack of wolves working together to hunt a deer but end up fighting over the meat itself

  • @hgman3920

    @hgman3920

    2 жыл бұрын

    sort of like WWII

  • @thisisaname5589

    @thisisaname5589

    2 жыл бұрын

    Modern Russia? I'd dump NATO in a second to see a U.S-Russia alliance. NATO is almost entirely comprised of useless European cowards, happily bending the knee to China. Russia has so much more to offer, and they are a deeply nationalist Christian empire. Sounds great.

  • @bristoled93

    @bristoled93

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@thisisaname5589 Russia is bending the knee to China, most of Europe is an ally to the USA, what 3 countries can fight wars away from their doorstep?

  • @thisisaname5589

    @thisisaname5589

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@bristoled93 An ally that is not willing to fight is not an ally at all. Russia isn't bending anything to China. Russia and China despise each other, Russia simply is forced to work with China because we're stupid and we don't give them any other option. China wants to control Vladivostok. And frankly, if we did the smart thing and ditched NATO for Russia, there's no reason Britain couldn't come along too.

  • @WSlopeAggie

    @WSlopeAggie

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@thisisaname5589 Britain's kind of our little puppy at this point. What a shift from the late 1600's/early-mid 1700's lmao

  • @lachlanperrier2851
    @lachlanperrier28512 жыл бұрын

    I’ve always wondered if micro chips will be extremely important in a modern world war. The supply is relatively in-elastic (due to infrastructure investments) so it can be thought of as a resource (like oil). It’s why Taiwan could be incredibly important in the next war as they dominate the chip supply. I wonder if there is any policies in place that that involve the destruction of its foundries if china makes landfall.

  • @stripeytawney822

    @stripeytawney822

    2 жыл бұрын

    Did you notice Micron pulled its design stuff from Taiwan recently?

  • @ryanbazan5016

    @ryanbazan5016

    2 жыл бұрын

    Why wouldn't the opposition just bomb the factories though

  • @TheKeksadler

    @TheKeksadler

    2 жыл бұрын

    Taiwan's grip on the semiconductor industry is the primary reason why the invasion of Taiwan would spark a global conflict. The semiconductor shortage has already created huge panic in the West; if China were to suddenly wipe out 55% of the market, the rest of the world would probably respond in kind.

  • @stripeytawney822

    @stripeytawney822

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@TheKeksadler I would add that the part that is there is the bleeding edge state of the art part too. China wants to dominate the leading edge, and between the IP and the actual.know how is finding it difficult to get there (Intel keeps trying and is still behind TSMC by what 2 nodes?). I doubt the west would just let that IP and the foundries go into chinese possession. IF the enemy boards your battleship, you scuttle her rather than let her become the enemies battleship...

  • @ZeroNumerous

    @ZeroNumerous

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@ryanbazan5016 The same reason you don't burn the oil fields except when you know it's impossible to win.

  • @perzonne6302
    @perzonne63022 жыл бұрын

    Can you do a video on the future of the Caribbean Islands? The whole batch of small island nations have arguably some of the lowest future prospects for growth. They've been stagnant all these decades. Are they doomed to continue that way? Do you think the caribbean nations will group together into one big country to expand their economy?

  • @Muslim-og3vc

    @Muslim-og3vc

    2 жыл бұрын

    Yes and the pacific islands too, like what civilisation would they even be considered a part of

  • @jackyex

    @jackyex

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Muslim-og3vc the Pacific Islands will probably be underwater by the next century, atoll are very flat.

  • @An_Ian

    @An_Ian

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@jackyex Some might still exist above the waves but ya most will be gone in a few decades

  • @iattacku2773

    @iattacku2773

    2 жыл бұрын

    The Dominican Republic has been growing a lot economically. I wouldn’t count them out

  • @iattacku2773

    @iattacku2773

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@jackyex that is debatable

  • @SuperSnickerS19of88
    @SuperSnickerS19of882 жыл бұрын

    Your historical angle on modern geopolitics is SO good! No one is doing it like this on youtube!

  • @JadeoftheGlade

    @JadeoftheGlade

    2 жыл бұрын

    It really changes everything once you look at things on such a large time scale. You're able to see the patterns and trends, and make predictions accordingly.

  • @innosam123
    @innosam1232 жыл бұрын

    An invasion of Taiwan COULD also be a Crete-style paratrooper landing, not just a naval one.

  • @8is

    @8is

    2 жыл бұрын

    It would probably be both, if it doesn't turn out that the Taiwanese are able to contest Chinese air superiority.

  • @lucasharvey8990

    @lucasharvey8990

    2 жыл бұрын

    It's the same deal though. The American Air Force is just as dominant as its Navy. Plus, boats are probably the best bet for getting the mind-boggling number of troops to the island. In order to both take and then occupy the island and keep the millions and millions of locals at bay, you'd need an absolutely awesome number of invading troops. I just don't see the Chinese managing to paradrop a couple hundred thousand troops plus their equipment. So yeah, realistically they would have no choice but to include a lot of ships in an invasion, no matter what.

  • @ToastytheG

    @ToastytheG

    2 жыл бұрын

    D-day required amphibious landings to get so many vehicles and supplies to the european continent that the allies could then drive all the way to berlin. Taiwan is not a continent, so I agree that paratroopers would be the primary attack force.

  • @appa609

    @appa609

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@lucasharvey8990 The USAF can't base close enough to the strait to be a dominant force. We'd be talking 1000+ nm radius patrols. High concentration of warplanes also makes a juicy missile target.

  • @Grubnar

    @Grubnar

    2 жыл бұрын

    The Fallschirmjäger may have won in the end, but they were decimated on Crete. I don't think they ever did a major operation after that. Of course, China may not care about that.

  • @tonyfriendly4409
    @tonyfriendly44092 жыл бұрын

    I've never clicked a video faster. What happens in Taiwan in the next couple of years will define the 21st Century.

  • @neolink8197

    @neolink8197

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Ps3GamerVideos Beer Hall Putsch seems extremely accurate. So we are 15 or so years away from WW3...

  • @jonasfischer878
    @jonasfischer8782 жыл бұрын

    "every plan is good until the first shot is fired", came to my mind at 12:30, reminded me about the circumstances and unforseen problems generals on both sides have to face probably and this would be one of the first wars in 21st century where two superpowers with (like you said) no leaked informations about their arsenal would clash against each other...

  • @Grubnar

    @Grubnar

    2 жыл бұрын

    Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face!" - Mike Tyson I imagine China has a plan, but just how panicked, or stupid will they become, if they implement that plan ... and then get punched in the face? Real hard!

  • @GL-iv4rw

    @GL-iv4rw

    2 жыл бұрын

    ​@@Grubnar China has been in a war of attrition with the world for 5000 years already.

  • @WSlopeAggie

    @WSlopeAggie

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@GL-iv4rw and even with themselves lmao

  • @joeketa6352
    @joeketa63522 жыл бұрын

    I think the odds of the US not getting heavily involved in an invasion of Taiwan are very, very low. For one thing, Japan would never stand for such an invasion and would be compelled to defend Taiwan, which would in turn compel the US to defend Taiwan if they weren't compelled already. Taiwan is a modern democracy with loads of soft power behind it. No western nation could sit idly by and watch it fall due to shared ideologies, and no Pacific nation would sit idle due to encroachment. It really would be WW3, which is why it would only happen if there were serious deterioration beforehand. Some people think Taiwan could be like the Falklands, but only the UK cared about the Falklands and no one worried that Argentina would use the Falklands as a stepping stone to take over South America. If China were to use Taiwan as a distraction from internal strife it would only test the waters with attacks. It would not not launch a full invasion unless it was prepared to start WW3.

  • @youbgemer7196

    @youbgemer7196

    2 жыл бұрын

    china can lettirley counquer tiwan right now but they are waiting to make it with a less of a cost

  • @Low_commotion

    @Low_commotion

    2 жыл бұрын

    Let's not forget TSMC. Nothing we can make domestically will match the chips TSMC can make _today_ for half a decade. Samsung & TSMC are to my knowledge the only two in the world who have current gen chip foundries.

  • @millevenon5853

    @millevenon5853

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Low_commotion it's already building a 3nm chip factory in Arizona. So if war broke out America would still have advanced chips on its soil

  • @Low_commotion

    @Low_commotion

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@millevenon5853 That's great news. Though, considering that's one of our reasons to defend Taiwan, I wonder what the Taiwanese government's thinking is behind that. Surely they must have given their OK on it.

  • @millevenon5853

    @millevenon5853

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Low_commotion it's building a nano metre chip in Japan as well. Japan is the country most committed to defending Taiwan. Taiwan built a huge factory after being pressured by Trump. It built a 16nm chip in China too. But the advanced 3nm one were reserved for friendly nations only

  • @SacredCowStockyards
    @SacredCowStockyards2 жыл бұрын

    Before watching the video: I'm gonna say the answer is no. China isn't gonna be dumb enough to attack an American ally across a strait 3 times longer than the English channel, and anyway everyone is expecting that fuse to light. If WWIII happens it's gonna be on a front people aren't looking at. I think India is a better candidate.

  • @anon6000

    @anon6000

    2 жыл бұрын

    Taiwan is not American ally and the US follows a policy of strategic ambiguity with respect to it for the simple reason that it is 100% not worth WW3.

  • @frigidlava617

    @frigidlava617

    2 жыл бұрын

    They couldn’t invade over the Himalayas, so they would have to invade from one of their allies like Pakistan or Sri Lanka. But it would be hard to do that with stealth, so I don’t see it as very likely.

  • @seekndestroy8970

    @seekndestroy8970

    2 жыл бұрын

    kzread.info/dash/bejne/fauVrMyDccWrldo.html It absolutely is a possibility.

  • @TheSuperior100

    @TheSuperior100

    2 жыл бұрын

    The US won't be dumb enough to get involved in a world war with the world's largest country over a Chinese island. They're just acting strong at the moment but the moment war breaks out they'll go to the negotiating table.

  • @sohammitra8657

    @sohammitra8657

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@frigidlava617 Oi Pakistan isn't our ally we hate them

  • @tristingoode4722
    @tristingoode47222 жыл бұрын

    Do you think Central Asia would side with Russia or China in the factional breakdown of a (sort of) United Asian alliance with the two states opposing America?

  • @Muslim-og3vc

    @Muslim-og3vc

    2 жыл бұрын

    Russia i assume, due to post soviet and Russian Empire connections, Central Asian elite’s being close to to russia and due to the uyghur genocide. Although i dont see Russia and China opposing each other anytime soon due to being againts the west in Ukraine and Taiwan

  • @tristingoode4722

    @tristingoode4722

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Muslim-og3vc That’s a great point, I absolutely agree with those points. However, my only wonder is the belt and road initiative of the Chinese into Central Asia. It honestly seems like the combating spheres of influence of the Chinese and Russians, as well as the Chinese and Americans should logically push Russia and America together geopolitically. I think that as the old Cold War bureaucrats of the United States begin to leave office, and without a major war between Russia and America, the two states have much more to gain in their own interests together than apart.

  • @epicgamerzfail4575

    @epicgamerzfail4575

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Muslim-og3vc they might not be opposed to one-another right now, but the moment the us/west is a non threat to them, their "alliance" will break. Which leads to the original ops question of who central Asia will side with in this situation

  • @onlyfacts4999

    @onlyfacts4999

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@tristingoode4722 Alienating China is what made Russia so aggressive in the first place. The Kremlin would've never dreamed of building up such a massive force to invade Ukraine and threaten peace in Europe if they had to devote half of their force to defend the Manchurian border with China.

  • @Muslim-og3vc

    @Muslim-og3vc

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@explosivereactionstv7414 yes with their current governments, but the US is definitely going to try to get others to support the Uighur cause in order to cause problems in China

  • @Andrew-ip7cd
    @Andrew-ip7cd2 жыл бұрын

    Bro this dude thinks of China as some major antagonist villain. *"The Panda bear is an animal that has much potential to kill you, but as long as you do provoke it, it won't provoke you"*

  • @kokofan50

    @kokofan50

    2 жыл бұрын

    Provoking a panda is as simple as wearing a jacket it wants.

  • @Andrew-ip7cd

    @Andrew-ip7cd

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@kokofan50 Lmao, the panda wont exactly kill you because of a jacket, now will it?

  • @kokofan50

    @kokofan50

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Andrew-ip7cd yeah, they will. Pandas are exceptionally lazy and rather stupid bears, but they are bears and have occasionally mulled people to death.

  • @Andrew-ip7cd

    @Andrew-ip7cd

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@kokofan50 That's because the events you see are obviously filtered. It isn't as if New outlets post every time when someone isn't mulled to death and tbf, most aren't on purpose. Besides, we're getting off track here lol

  • @kokofan50

    @kokofan50

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Andrew-ip7cd You said never happens and now you’re saying rarely happens. Those are different things. Moreover, I never said it was common. I think this is still on topic. You used a metaphor of a panda for China not attacking other countries, but we have come to conclusion that pandas do attack people unprovoked, just like China has. Just because your metaphor doesn’t say what you thought it did, doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.

  • @hectormedrano4117
    @hectormedrano41172 жыл бұрын

    Based on this, will you be exploring the different ‘hotspots’ that currently exist in the international stage?

  • @mr.d00m37

    @mr.d00m37

    2 жыл бұрын

    Taiwan and Ukraine are the two biggest right now

  • @Muslim-og3vc

    @Muslim-og3vc

    2 жыл бұрын

    Yeah you have N & S korea, China and Taiwan, Kashmir, The balkans, the Caucuses, The middle east, Egypt and Ethiopia, Ukraine

  • @teruterubozo

    @teruterubozo

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Muslim-og3vc Don't forget the Spratly Islands.

  • @doogus8728
    @doogus87282 жыл бұрын

    No matter what happens, Brazil never changes. I'm gonna move there if war breaks out.

  • @Muslim-og3vc

    @Muslim-og3vc

    2 жыл бұрын

    Your probably gonna be more likely to be killed in Brazil than in Taiwan China frontline

  • @MrAsianPie

    @MrAsianPie

    2 жыл бұрын

    Brazil.... Brazil never changes

  • @chico9805

    @chico9805

    2 жыл бұрын

    Better off heading to Argentina, essentially a White Brazil with less crime.

  • @doogus8728

    @doogus8728

    2 жыл бұрын

    ​@@Muslim-og3vc Killed by* Brazil.

  • @corrsali

    @corrsali

    2 жыл бұрын

    Plot twist: Then Brazil changes

  • @TheMap1997
    @TheMap19972 жыл бұрын

    Do Ukraine. I think this is something larger than Taiwan for the moment.

  • @SHAHIDKC

    @SHAHIDKC

    2 жыл бұрын

    Was Putin Ukrainian?

  • @helast3916

    @helast3916

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@SHAHIDKC ukrainian is not a culture or a nationality, lenin created it

  • @michaelhamar3305

    @michaelhamar3305

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@helast3916 lol, ukraine first mention was in 14 cetury if my memory don't deceive me

  • @sinoroman

    @sinoroman

    2 жыл бұрын

    not really tbh

  • @sovietunion7643

    @sovietunion7643

    2 жыл бұрын

    well russian trying to act on ukraine could make china decide to do something while the americans are preoccupied

  • @koalasandwich567
    @koalasandwich5672 жыл бұрын

    Do another break down of U.S. politics, I think that would be interesting.

  • @user-xo9ig8kc3u

    @user-xo9ig8kc3u

    2 жыл бұрын

    PLEASE NO SIR

  • @theforbiddenpotato8032

    @theforbiddenpotato8032

    2 жыл бұрын

    YOU WILL INVOKE THE TRUE WW3 IN THE COMMENT SECTION

  • @ecudude27858
    @ecudude278582 жыл бұрын

    I wish you’d make a playlist of all your videos. KZread will put literally anything but another one of your videos in the queue. I just want to watch them all back to back sometimes

  • @CHixon
    @CHixon2 жыл бұрын

    Although you identified the first island defense chain. you failed to mention the second chain of islands further out in the Pacific. China has been cozying up to these settlements to find their own "unsinkable carriers" and resupply stations for vessels on their way to the West.

  • @mitchells7634

    @mitchells7634

    2 жыл бұрын

    The country I think your comment immediately made me think of is Sri Lanka. China has debt-trapped and belt-and-roaded Sri Lanka into an ally right at the doorstep of India. Of course to get there China will have to either get it's navy past Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, the US Navy, and the Indian Navy, or go over Tibet/the Himalayas and break through India, possibly to Bangladesh.

  • @trollmcclure2659

    @trollmcclure2659

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@mitchells7634 Breaking through Himalaya and India when China can move through its Pakistan or Myanmar allies to access the Indian ocean ? Also, the debt trap bullshit has been debunked (actually China cleared Sri Lanka's from another creditor by giving more money, Sri Lanka has more debt toward IMF and japan), it's a projection and the IMF is actually doing it, that's why countries are borrowing money from China with lower interest rates, the most recent example is Argentina joining the Belt and Road Initiative after having issues with IMF.

  • @epicgamerzfail4575
    @epicgamerzfail45752 жыл бұрын

    The world: *Ukraine is about to start ww3* Whatifalthist: "let's talk about Taiwan"

  • @hendrikbarboritsch7003

    @hendrikbarboritsch7003

    2 жыл бұрын

    Next: North Korea

  • @chico9805

    @chico9805

    2 жыл бұрын

    Ukraine is a sideshow; neither America or the EU will shed a single drop of blood over it. At worst, Russia will just be slapped with some sanctions

  • @joey199412

    @joey199412

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@chico9805 "Just slapped with sanctions". The sanctions proposed by the EU and West are disastrous. The last round of sanctions made the Russian GDP shrink by 30%. The next Sanction round (if SWIFT is involved) would lower the Russian GDP by another 75%. This would mean almost a century of economic progress would be lost and Russian GDP per capita would become on par with Nigeria. The sanctions are absolutely devastating and can in a way affect Russia more than military opposition.

  • @chico9805

    @chico9805

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@joey199412 You're correct, highly exaggerative, but correct. However, none of that undermines my point - If Russia chooses to invade, it will do so unopposed

  • @onlyfacts4999

    @onlyfacts4999

    2 жыл бұрын

    ​@@chico9805 If we do not respond to Russian aggression, then Taiwan's days would be numbered. China would be taking notes and making decisions based on that.

  • @georgekostaras
    @georgekostaras2 жыл бұрын

    I did want to point out something. Right now Vietnam has 20 percent of its trade with the USA and 20 percent with China. Also, China just built the first metro line in Hanoi this year. While Vietnam might culturally dislike China, the truth is since the 90's they're mostly settled into a trading partner relationship

  • @dr.woozie7500

    @dr.woozie7500

    2 жыл бұрын

    I don’t think Vietnamese culturally dislike China. Their culture is based off ancient Chinese traditions. You’ll find a lot of cultural similarities between southern Chinese and Vietnamese. They hate China politically. China took the authoritarian Maoist approach while Vietnam took the Soviet glasnost approach after the Vietnam War.

  • @abelsoo5465

    @abelsoo5465

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@dr.woozie7500 In fact, Southern Chinese and Vietnamese are very similar in appearance. Northern Chinese looks more like Mongols and Koreans while southern Chinese can look very similar to Northern Thais, Burmese and Vietnamese.

  • @Max-xs8dv
    @Max-xs8dv2 жыл бұрын

    Another thing making a potential invasion more difficult is the fact that we'd basically know about it more than a month in advance. Congregating fleets capable of assailing Taiwan takes a lot of time and satellites ensure that we'd know about it well beforehand. I also imagine the U.S. would make that info public for image reasons, just like it did for a Russian troop buildup. If Russia can't hide troop buildup off Ukraine, China probably can't hide troop buildup near Taiwan. I imagine the U.S. would intervene in Taiwan should China attack, because otherwise its promises mean essentially nothing. Not to mention, it would seem to me that if the goal is to curb China's economic growth, fighting a war with them might not be the worst way to do that. Bombing Chinese infrastructure back to the stone age might be pretty bad for China. If China fails to take Taiwan, I don't see a logical way the CCP could continue to justify its existence.

  • @benharris7358

    @benharris7358

    2 жыл бұрын

    China - unlike Russia, has the resources and manpower to assemble and permanently maintain a ready invasion force and also to run numerous dummy runs that dont eventuate. Basically always being ready to invade for up to a decade without changes means that you could not prepare for the defense unless you were willing to commit the same resources as China every single time they fake a build up.

  • @youbgemer7196

    @youbgemer7196

    2 жыл бұрын

    well you forgot that china cant be bomed back to stone age also usa cant join the war cuz will this might go to a NUCLEAR WAR

  • @benharris7358

    @benharris7358

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@youbgemer7196, china has more than enough conventional land based missiles to destroy any enemy assets in its local area - including the US military bases in Okinawa. China could not take the war further than the range of their shorter range missile systems since they would soon run out of power projection ability if they are too far from the mainland, but they could almost certainly prevent deployment of hostile naval assets in the sea around Taiwan

  • @user-mr9ob9xd7f

    @user-mr9ob9xd7f

    2 жыл бұрын

    If they dont want you to see it, you wont see it. Remember how awe struck everyone was when Russian tanks suddenly appeared in Georgia? Or when Crimea was taken? Nobody had a clue these troops were moving.

  • @eddiewalker9114

    @eddiewalker9114

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@benharris7358 I'm pretty sure China has stolen some tech from the west and or probably hiding some more missile tech we haven't seen.

  • @homeworld22
    @homeworld222 жыл бұрын

    One step that could be mentioned - Taiwan controls a bunch of smaller islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Dongsha Islands, etc) most of them much closer to the Chinese coast. One strongly suspects that the Chinese, a people willing to play the long game, not yet completely confident in their abilities and trying to gauge the US reaction, will seize a few of these first before aiming for Taiwan itself. Some years might even pass between such operations - much like Putin's seizure of Crimea in 2014 as a possible prelude to the current buildup in 2022.

  • @badwolf66
    @badwolf662 жыл бұрын

    Reminds me of a Game of Civilization 5 I was playing, my allies requested that I join a war against Japan but I refused every time and little did I realize that Japan was already a world superpower, I supplied my allies with weapons and equipment like the small city states but it wasn't enough, Japan was just too powerful by this time. My mistake was having a war with America (I was England) I had reduced them to 1 city then made peace with them, that was when The Japanese attacked, my forces were depleted and weakened, luckily I had a strong navy but even that didn't help. Japan was just steam rolling me and that is a problem world powers have all the time, stay neutral or be with your allies in the war.

  • @thomasmitchell4128

    @thomasmitchell4128

    2 жыл бұрын

    Rookie mistake my boy.

  • @elliottprats1910

    @elliottprats1910

    2 жыл бұрын

    I play Civilization 6 (being playing since the original) at king or emperor level and I win 9/10 (mostly space, occasionally cultural and twice both religious and domination). I suggest you change your strategy, btw I NEVER supply anyone with ANYTHING - no luxuries, units, no open borders, ect.

  • @dylanroemmele906

    @dylanroemmele906

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@elliottprats1910 Some people want to have fun instead of meta gaming

  • @neonbunnies9596
    @neonbunnies95962 жыл бұрын

    6:25 The US dances by stating that there is one China, but not specifying if it's the Taiwan China or the China China. And it's acknowledges the existence of China, which differs from accept or recognize. Diplomats are very careful with their word choice

  • @sinoroman

    @sinoroman

    2 жыл бұрын

    all diplomats should speak softly (be careful with words)

  • @WSlopeAggie

    @WSlopeAggie

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@sinoroman speak softly and carry a big stick

  • @rhoetusochten4211
    @rhoetusochten42112 жыл бұрын

    A Russian-American alliance makes sense, but when has that mattered? Instead, do you think that an escalation to an invasion of the Ukraine might incite China into invading Taiwan while the US is distracted in the West?

  • @michaelhamar3305

    @michaelhamar3305

    2 жыл бұрын

    it may but really it depends on many other factors

  • @epicgamerzfail4575

    @epicgamerzfail4575

    2 жыл бұрын

    That is 100% a possibility. It's pretty generally agreed that china and russia will begrudgingly be allies against the us in a hypothetical ww3, so I feel both Ukraine and Taiwan will end up having something happen if one falls. Who knows, maybe the whole build up in Ukraine rn is because the Russians are waiting for china to invade Taiwan and *they* seize the opportunity while the us is distracted in thr east

  • @caopi9783

    @caopi9783

    2 жыл бұрын

    Putin should hope that USA and China go into war. If he is smart he will just sit it out in Ukraine. No matter who will win China and Amarica will probably be devastated after the war. The 3rd world would collapse afterwards and EU is weak. They would serve the Earth on a platter to Russia.

  • @epicgamerzfail4575

    @epicgamerzfail4575

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@caopi9783 I feel it would be very, *very* hard for Russia to sit out of a China-US war. Not to mention whoever wins that war would come out stronger, which would prompt Russia to be more involved as to avoid having a bigger threat down the line

  • @chico9805

    @chico9805

    2 жыл бұрын

    America's focus is almost solely on Taiwan, the Ukraine situation is literally a media circus. If Ukraine falls, Russia gains some strength and the EU wets itself, but America will be mostly unharmed. However, if Taiwan falls? American supremacy is destroyed and its alliances across the world will immediately weaken, as such an event would prove that America can no longer protect its dependencies.

  • @XiaoPangZi
    @XiaoPangZi2 жыл бұрын

    It's not only about face, it's also about that it's easy to block Chinese maritime trade, ruining the country in a a few weeks. Owning Taiwan makes that much harder. Likewise Taiwan is basically a big island that projects a military threat towards Chinas rich coast, owning Taiwan not only removes the threat but it also would be a great power projection for China, and lets not forget any rich waters with natural gas that would then belong to mainland China. Add this to the reasons mentioned in the video and you have a good many reasons for mainland to claim Taiwan.

  • @qaz120120
    @qaz1201202 жыл бұрын

    You completely got it wrong. China does not care about the symbolic part of the island. It needs the island back for strategic purposes and economic unity.

  • @mountainmanmike1014

    @mountainmanmike1014

    2 жыл бұрын

    You have no idea what Face Culture is. look it up

  • @peterroberts4415
    @peterroberts44152 жыл бұрын

    Better question is when will Tawain spark a US-China conflict? If things heat up in Ukraine, they'll heat up in Taiwan too

  • @brothergideon9861
    @brothergideon98612 жыл бұрын

    I would say that Taiwán being a microchip powerhouse is also a big factor. The modern world runs off them so everyone would like to control such a resource

  • @rikgales123

    @rikgales123

    2 жыл бұрын

    Im pretty sure that's gone the moment China invades

  • @user-uf2df6zf5w

    @user-uf2df6zf5w

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@rikgales123 How giant factories will be "gone" form one day to another?

  • @Doochos

    @Doochos

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@user-uf2df6zf5w explosives

  • @user-uf2df6zf5w

    @user-uf2df6zf5w

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Doochos Who's explosives?

  • @Doochos

    @Doochos

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@user-uf2df6zf5w Taiwanese

  • @tkdmike9345
    @tkdmike93452 жыл бұрын

    12:17 ah yes, when people thought WW2 would repeat WW2. Whats worse than WW2? WW2 squared. Love the videos!

  • @paulklee5790
    @paulklee57902 жыл бұрын

    Brilliant, entertaining and enlightening.... I think the nub is even if you can’t predict events (writing in mid April after you know what, ho ho...) you need to be thinking about possibilities and potential scenarios. Every time I watch one of your movies I come away with my mental picture of the world expanded in so many interesting and unexpected ways. So thank you and greetings from the U.K.

  • @LVCE.
    @LVCE.2 жыл бұрын

    Back to back uploads! I’m in heaven

  • @aibarra4141
    @aibarra41412 жыл бұрын

    2 videos in 2 days! What a treat, thank you!

  • @millenialdissident2789
    @millenialdissident27892 жыл бұрын

    2 videos in under 24 hours?! You spoil us M’lord

  • @jonathankoo8564
    @jonathankoo85642 жыл бұрын

    Coming from China, the ‘China’ perspective is a disappointingly Western view of things. Yes, Taiwan is a long-held goal, but more importantly it is a geopolitical strategy to breakthrough USA’s first island chain. In addition your classification of most of Asia as a US ally is false and simplistic, perhaps naive. The average Asian mindset is much more pragmatic than the West, and when I comes down to it will side with China by staying neutral - I for one am certain ASEAN will not take any action except for a few condemnations and statement of concerns

  • @georgekostaras

    @georgekostaras

    2 жыл бұрын

    Plus recently China built a metro in Hanoi and a national railroad in Laos. That’s bought them a lot of goodwill and trade. It arguably serves them better than the USA way of threatening bombing

  • @garmia1839
    @garmia18392 жыл бұрын

    What are your thoughts on the recent things happening between Ukraine and Russia?

  • @manzell
    @manzell2 жыл бұрын

    An Embargo against China would be considered an act as war just as much as landing troops there would be. I believe that's the opinion of international law as well.

  • @wanghui562

    @wanghui562

    2 жыл бұрын

    A trade embargo would bring hyperinflation to ameria. It would unite all Asian countries against america as all of them have China as their primary trading partner. This KZreadr does not have adequate knowledge on this matter.

  • @millevenon5853

    @millevenon5853

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@wanghui562 true. The only thing that will slow down China is 500 million old people it will have in less than 20 years. China will have Japanese style demographics in just 15 years. And its workforce decreases by 35 million people every 5 years

  • @wanghui562

    @wanghui562

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@millevenon5853 China had a one child policy. China can have a ten child policy if needed. Thanks for your concern, but you ought to look at the demography within western nations to conclude that Chinese people will see civil wars in western countries before we grow old.

  • @WSlopeAggie

    @WSlopeAggie

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@millevenon5853 that's assuming it doesn't break apart again in the meantime like China is historically notorious for doing

  • @hughmungus2760

    @hughmungus2760

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@WSlopeAggie The average time it takes for china to 'break' is longer than the entire existance of the US as a country.

  • @orboakin8074
    @orboakin80742 жыл бұрын

    Another awesome video, friend. Peter Zeihan and Dan Carlin would approve! Also, we are truly living in interesting times.

  • @wolfsden6479
    @wolfsden64792 жыл бұрын

    Don't underestimate the power of a blockaid, food alone as well as a major decrease in trade and investment.

  • @Plutoniumcube
    @Plutoniumcube2 жыл бұрын

    The presence of gradients made me do a double take on whether or not this is a whatifalthist video.

  • @-gator4732
    @-gator47322 жыл бұрын

    The US and Britain almost fought but Britain backed out. After WW2 Britain attack Egypt over the Canal, the US threaten to fight a war against Britain if it didn’t stop, and Britain backed down.

  • @1mol831

    @1mol831

    2 жыл бұрын

    US has completely surpassed Britain at that point.

  • @Max-xs8dv

    @Max-xs8dv

    2 жыл бұрын

    I don't think the US threatened war, but rather economic punishment.

  • @-gator4732

    @-gator4732

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Max-xs8dv economic punishment comes before military punishment. Britain backed down before it went any further.

  • @Doochos

    @Doochos

    2 жыл бұрын

    The US never threatened Britain with war.

  • @Steve-zc9ht

    @Steve-zc9ht

    2 жыл бұрын

    No they didn't he usa threatened economic embargo and sections not war

  • @kevintao7417
    @kevintao7417 Жыл бұрын

    Where did you get the guilt/shame/fear world map?

  • @slavsquatsuperstar
    @slavsquatsuperstar2 жыл бұрын

    So, “I must capture -the Avatar- Taiwan to restore my honor”

  • @favourites106
    @favourites1062 жыл бұрын

    5:46 I wonder how many times out of each war did both sides severely weaken each other to the point that they were replaced by other powers

  • @stormaflu4632

    @stormaflu4632

    2 жыл бұрын

    Well in the original Thucydides trap this is what happens. In his original example of the Peloponnesian War, after a brutal war Sparta manages to destroy Athens, but it’s severely weakened and it’s quickly defeated by the new ascending power of Thebes, who then forms a new hegemony. So yeah, that’s a real possibility.

  • @ZeroNumerous

    @ZeroNumerous

    2 жыл бұрын

    It happened in the modern day. The American rise grew directly out of WW1 causing Germany, France, and Britain substantial damage, and the American ascendancy was boosted further by WW2.

  • @OnlyRodion

    @OnlyRodion

    2 жыл бұрын

    One of the biggest examples are the Byzantine Sassanian wars.

  • @FallingPicturesProductions

    @FallingPicturesProductions

    2 жыл бұрын

    It's a good point, but there's not very many other nations positioned to capitalize and become a world power. Russia is the closest example but they still lack a level of food security and freshwater access/security (both arguably strong reasons why the current Ukraine mess is going down) and they're still suffering from population issues from the human losses in WWII AND potential cultural infighting as Islam becomes more and more popular. That's not to say that there isn't the possibility for strong regional powers to take shape. Turkey is well on it's way to regional power status, while if France can resolve it's cultural/demographic issues it could transform their partial military independence from NATO into becoming a Hegemone of West+Central Europe. Vietnam with a few good investments could become a new regional south-Asian power and South America+Africa will continue to South America+Africa by not being able to capitalize on world circumstances due to corruption, geography, and racial/cultural conflict. A collapsing China/US could just lead to a lot of strong regional powers but a significant period with no true 'world' powers.

  • @evaldassvambaris2260
    @evaldassvambaris22602 жыл бұрын

    This got outdated real fast didn't it?

  • @dylanshaffer2184
    @dylanshaffer21842 жыл бұрын

    Great video!! Did you know that there is US sovereign territory right across the Philippine sea?? Guam a key US territory has multiple US bases, and the Marianas combined is home to around 200,000 US citizens

  • @innosam123
    @innosam1232 жыл бұрын

    15:00 Okinawa was never part of China. It was a tributary of China, but it was independent until Japan annexed it in the Victorian Era.

  • @thisisaname5589

    @thisisaname5589

    2 жыл бұрын

    Eh, doesn't really matter now. Under no circumstances will the PRC be able to get their grubby little hands on it anytime in the next few decades at least, and given the amount of enemies they've got in literally every direction, that's unlikely to change.

  • @thisisaname5589

    @thisisaname5589

    2 жыл бұрын

    @IJŠƇĦͦ̚5ɜPƔNjƇάȥɓϋξ îπɛş\x91͈ǷǯƠɱ\ Japanese, because the balance of planes and aircraft carriers says so.

  • @innosam123

    @innosam123

    2 жыл бұрын

    @IJŠƇĦͦ̚5ɜPƔNjƇάȥɓϋξ îπɛş\x91͈ǷǯƠɱ\ Japanese, Okinawans are a related, but distinct culture to Japanese.

  • @jaydenjayden3990
    @jaydenjayden39902 жыл бұрын

    Red Button: Unnecessary war with USA that could kill 10's a millions of people, Possible global annihilation. Blue button: Sit back, do nothing, and get along, we all know your strong, just be chill about it. China: Hmmm this is a tough choice ;-;

  • @alevator606
    @alevator6062 жыл бұрын

    People have been talking about WWIII and it never happened. It's overhyped and it's likely not gonna happen forever. We are the middle children of history, no great wars, no Great Depression.

  • @ecoro_
    @ecoro_2 жыл бұрын

    @3:27 is gold. If our leaders understand this, things will get a lot easier.

  • @WoddCar
    @WoddCar2 жыл бұрын

    Whatifaltist: come because of the alternate history, stay because of the geopolitics. This video is very interesting because it is both.

  • @MagicSpud
    @MagicSpud2 жыл бұрын

    Good video overall but I have to push back on the underselling of Taiwan as a target. The island's location makes it a key strategic point for China's maritime defense and trade routes for the reason you already stated: China is more-or-less surrounded on it's sea belt. That makes seizing Taiwain a necessity for China if it feels some type of war is inevitable anyway. Having their Navy able to finally navigate the Pacific in spite of their neighbor's opinions would likely outweigh the consequences of international condemnation. The chip shortage we've been undergoing since 2020 is also something that can't be overstated. With the overwhelming majority of microchips essential in modern technology coming from the ROC, a vulnerable flashpoint has been exposed by the shortage. This can't be immediately remedied by diversifying as it takes significant time and investment to lay the groundwork for such facilities. Meaning if the CCP was somehow able to take Taiwan without American military pushback AND seize these facilities intact, it would be holding the world's technology industry by the balls. More realistically, if the chip production facilities were destroyed by the ROC as a last resort during a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it would without question cause serious damage to the world's economy.

  • @Ry_TSG

    @Ry_TSG

    2 жыл бұрын

    It’s for the semiconductor reason that I think America would step up to protect Taiwan. The Biden admin and the rest of the world has seen the importance of keeping the chips flowing, and they know the kind of damage it could do if China destroyed or captured TSMC

  • @onlyfacts4999

    @onlyfacts4999

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Ry_TSG Or more likely cut a deal with China to delay their occupation of Taiwan until the chip manufacturing has been moved back to the US.

  • @8is

    @8is

    2 жыл бұрын

    I don't think China is particularly keen on spending millions of lives to temporarily disrupt the global supply chain only to get basically nothing from it. The US would stop trading with China, which would make industry flourish elsewhere and semiconducters would be produced somehwere else, even if it does take a lot of time. Japan and South Korea are only importing oil from the middle east because its the cheapest, not because its the only option, so the US alliance network could esentially get around every strategic advantage china could get from seizing Taiwan. If China took Taiwan, the result would be that the US alliance network would move away from chinese influence and isolate China.

  • @8is

    @8is

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@onlyfacts4999 There is no way China would accept that. edit: Taiwan, not China

  • @onlyfacts4999

    @onlyfacts4999

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@8is Yes they will if the alternative is to fight America in a war

  • @moosehead4497
    @moosehead44972 жыл бұрын

    A combination of snap releases to attract the returning audience followed by less frequent but consistent, probably the best method

  • @Cneq
    @Cneq2 жыл бұрын

    Exactly, as long as Russia and China do not ally there is no chance of either of them posing a threat. The US/NATO seriously need to take a step back and stop pushing Russia into a corner about Ukraine and instead do what is best for the world at large and cooperate with Russia to strangle China and after China is dealt with and Russia still poses an issue then they can be dealt with.

  • @houyi3982
    @houyi39822 жыл бұрын

    12:23 I think you meant to write "People thought WW2 would be a repeat of WW1"

  • @IAmTheOnlyLucas
    @IAmTheOnlyLucas2 жыл бұрын

    India as an American ally, especially a strong one, is questionable call. India, in their young post-colonial era, allied loosely with the USSR and maintain strong ties with Russia to this day. The USSR-India alliance is the reason that the USA included Pakistan into the western bloc despite Pakistan not being western in most senses. The USA can count on India being a thorn in China’s side but they’re a big question mark on where they’ll fall if the USA comes into conflict with Russia. Source: WION (Indian state mouthpiece media), others.

  • @trisamudeshwar7184

    @trisamudeshwar7184

    2 жыл бұрын

    Wion is not a state mouth piece , it is a private news organisation , but they are right , we are not keen against a war with russia as russia gives us weapons and have been a historical partner , we are against china but not russia .

  • @greatwolf5372

    @greatwolf5372

    2 жыл бұрын

    India is not a US ally. We have some common interest with regards to the China but that's about it. We are not going to support you in your conflict with Russia. If anything most of the people actually prefers Russia, seeing the US as degenerate society. The government certainly will remain friendly to the US because we want to make money trading with you(you remain the largest economy after all!) and send the millions of surplus workers we cannot employ here. But we have no ideological love for you like UK, Canada and Western Europe.

  • @wanghui562

    @wanghui562

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@greatwolf5372 We Chinese do not care about India at all but on this point of american degeneracy, we completely agree. Merican government is a zoo. A real zoo with barbaric animals in the shape of humans.

  • @millevenon5853

    @millevenon5853

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@greatwolf5372 degenerate is laughable when you can find literal shit on Indian streets.

  • @greatwolf5372

    @greatwolf5372

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@millevenon5853 San Francisco is in India🤔

  • @tree48203
    @tree482032 жыл бұрын

    US: HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN!?! WE HAVE THE WORLDS OCEANS IN OUR NAVYS HANDS?!?, WHY WOULD THEY ATTACK OUR ALLIES!?!? British empire: aw shit here we go away

  • @ihavenomouthandimusttype9729
    @ihavenomouthandimusttype97292 жыл бұрын

    Everyone: Oh god no! Not nuclear war! Meanwhile in Arizona: Finally, Mars has accepted my sacrifices and unleashes me.

  • @andreepacheco7980
    @andreepacheco79802 жыл бұрын

    America is in a dire dilemma: Week leaders, strong enemies

  • @Averageyoutubeenjoyerr

    @Averageyoutubeenjoyerr

    2 жыл бұрын

    West Taiwan is desperate to start a world War as West Taiwan is not only in a conflict with Taiwan but also with Japan, South Korea,Vietnam , Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, India etc.

  • @JediAcolyte94
    @JediAcolyte942 жыл бұрын

    What if the Knights Templar never fell? What if the Raid on Harper's Ferry succeeded? What if Malcolm X was never assassinated?

  • @user-go1zt9ib4p

    @user-go1zt9ib4p

    2 жыл бұрын

    If he lived to 9/11 he could stop the Iraq war

  • @elijazfrazelsassafraz3100
    @elijazfrazelsassafraz31002 жыл бұрын

    I'm gonna have to disagree with you on that first point, because while I am worried about Taiwan, In January (now February) of 2022 I am a lot more fixated on Ukraine since that situation seems to be escalating. And like someone else said maybe China will see their chance here. Edit: immediately after writing this I realized It's probably because I am western focused. I try not to be biased but I guess I'm bad at it?

  • @fullmetaltheorist
    @fullmetaltheorist2 жыл бұрын

    Looks like we're going to have to defend an island on the other side of the world bois.

  • @stevenspatoulas9916
    @stevenspatoulas99162 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for cranking all these videos out it made my day even better

  • @ryanholder7728
    @ryanholder77282 жыл бұрын

    12:17 typo, you said that people thought ww2 would be like ww2, though still amazing considering you made this in 9 days

  • @Omer1996E.C
    @Omer1996E.C2 жыл бұрын

    Who's interested in more ideological difference and future of communities and nations?

  • @joycechuah6398
    @joycechuah63982 жыл бұрын

    Two 2 videos in one 1 day, Happy Chinese New Year !

  • @therearenoshortcuts9868
    @therearenoshortcuts98682 жыл бұрын

    1991 to 2016 was a peaceful bubble in world history that we lived through that ends now

  • @theamazingsandwitch12345
    @theamazingsandwitch123452 жыл бұрын

    Your videos are awesome and they give me reason to live don't stop

  • @Wulgreath
    @Wulgreath2 жыл бұрын

    14:16 I have noticed in my own reading that the Anglosphere has a tendency to basically kick their victim under the table until they snap, and THEN go to war with them. The language if I recall was "beating a dog until it bites, then shooting it as a 'mad dog'".

  • @alejandrogonzales7022
    @alejandrogonzales70222 жыл бұрын

    It's not about Taiwan. It's not about those people's lives. It's about the shipping lanes that keep the status quo.

  • @yossiperl7424
    @yossiperl74242 жыл бұрын

    You mentioned China's similarity with the pre-WWI European powers, but there's one huge difference: Pre WWI Europe was filled with a huge young generation due to years of declining child mortality and high birth rate. So many young people means huge armies can be recruited for war. This is not the case of China. Modern war require less manpower due to technology, but still, you can't fight a war without soldiers, and China simply doesn't have a young generation it can send to die on the battlefield

  • @declanfeeney7004

    @declanfeeney7004

    2 жыл бұрын

    They currently do but they won’t have another. The 2020s and 2030s are their one chance at pulling this off

  • @user-uf2df6zf5w
    @user-uf2df6zf5w2 жыл бұрын

    1. Taiwan is currently not "ruled by the KMT" 2. It is VERY difficult (if not impossible) to make russia "flip" to be an american allie, at least not with their current leadership. Putin is completely devoted to "figtht the west". He has actually a very weak stance on China, by selling them for example all kinds of resources to such a low price that they dont even make any profits, because he sees China as a essential allie in his preoccupation with "fighting the west".

  • @thecanadiankiwibirb4512

    @thecanadiankiwibirb4512

    2 жыл бұрын

    I think it is very likely. Putin is a very smart man. China is on his border. China is aggressive. China wants what Russa has (Resources and land) The USA and Europe are passive. They do not really want war, USA BC Afghanistan and Europe still from WW1/2, and all they want is for Russia to sell them oil, which Russia will happily do. Siding with America is the obvious choice Only way for this not to happen is if Europe is to thick skulled to get it through their heads to back down on Ukraine

  • @user-uf2df6zf5w

    @user-uf2df6zf5w

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@thecanadiankiwibirb4512 I think you simply dont understand Putin. Regardless of how "smart" he is, it is way more important to understand what type of thinking he has. He is a typical sovjet 1950s child, that grew up with stories of western invasion by the Nazis (thats why the nonsensical talk about buffer states) and the cold war (thats why he is talking constantly about how many minutes and seconds some western rocket will need to reach Moscow, this was a big thing when he was a teenager in the 60s) and that later worked in soviet intelligenze spying on the West. He, like most of his generation, are programmed to view the west as the main adversary, simply because this was the agenda throughout most of their livetimes. If you listen to russian state tv an what putin says and writes* himself, as well as his internal moves, like nationalizing 70 percent of the economy by creating state monopolies and creating a "welfare fund" wich wasnt touched during Corona since is obviously there to prepare the countries to massive western economic retaliation, you will notice yust how preoccupied the russian leadership with "fighting the west" is. Also I think its highly debatable wether Putin is "smart" at all. * He constantly writes "historical" essays where he explains his worldview that ultimatly comes down to the "fact" that Russia is constantly downtrotten and betrayed by western powers.

  • @theprotector1234567
    @theprotector12345672 жыл бұрын

    After Hong Kong its fair to say that the world won't want to get involved in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but would hasten Western disengagement with China. Our Allies South Korea and Japan might not take a quiet reaction very well.

  • @TheCowardRobertFord

    @TheCowardRobertFord

    2 жыл бұрын

    Different cases, Hong Kong was already a part of China.

  • @1mol831

    @1mol831

    2 жыл бұрын

    South Korea can deal with North Korea. Japan has lost their military spirit so they are not invading.

  • @nunbiz7328

    @nunbiz7328

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@1mol831 They have ? Re militarization is growing increasingly popular in Japan

  • @Ushio01

    @Ushio01

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@nunbiz7328 If you mean more money spent on ships without enough sailors and planes sitting on tarmac without enough pilots you are right.

  • @boaoftheboaians

    @boaoftheboaians

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@TheCowardRobertFord True but Hong Kong had special laws that made it separate from China (that was meant to expire on 2047).... until of course that whole national security law was passed

  • @Muslim-og3vc
    @Muslim-og3vc2 жыл бұрын

    Thumbnail budget went up for this video

  • @DinoJake
    @DinoJake2 жыл бұрын

    Taiwan: "I'm a potential catalyst for a third world war!" Ukraine: "Hold my beer..."

  • @Brosowski
    @Brosowski2 жыл бұрын

    Nice Whatifalthist to help me get through the day...until he ruins it with depressing speculations about the near future...Dang not as happy as i was.

  • @ajknaup3530
    @ajknaup35302 жыл бұрын

    I've watched & enjoyed many of your excellent videos in the past. I can not let this headline go by without objection. If the CCP attempts to invaid Taiwan, it will not be Taiwan which causes the war, but the Communist Chinese Party.

  • @ss-oq9pc
    @ss-oq9pc2 жыл бұрын

    Another great video.

  • @RoboMiller570
    @RoboMiller5702 жыл бұрын

    Been craving your material; keep up the good work.

  • @randy6613
    @randy66132 жыл бұрын

    I love your content. You have change the way I view things. Thank you so that. I would love to hear your thoughts about Ukraine right now. Keep up the great work!

  • @humzasyed9615
    @humzasyed96152 жыл бұрын

    Vietnam is not an American ally in any way. They have the same interests, but Vietnam has refused to host American bases and is still a communist nation. China is its largest trading power, and they recognize them as a fellow communist power, even if their relationship is strained.

  • @sinoroman

    @sinoroman

    2 жыл бұрын

    true

  • @SamSam-qk5zr

    @SamSam-qk5zr

    2 жыл бұрын

    And also India, i don't really think they would really rush to help the US if tensions arose

  • @krishnkant9477

    @krishnkant9477

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@SamSam-qk5zr Thanks for saying this. I am an Indian nationalist and I know my country has many issues with China, but we are not foolish enough to go to war against China even in next thousand years. And second thing, I don't understand why do west consider India as an ally? Leave any military alliance, we are not even strategic ally. You will never here that US and India are allies from Indian leaders, only Americans say this. I think you have no idea about India. It's indeed have no love for China (just like Vietnam, Philippines or Indonesia) but it has never considered west as an option against China. And the Indian public is itself very West-Phobic on geopolitics and likes Russia the most. And finally, China's attacks on India would be solely due to an possible future military alliance between US and India which is not the case now and won't happen even in future. If we don't do anything which angers China (A military alliance between US and India) it won't do anything to India. Hence, India will always remain neutral.

  • @TheEnergizer94
    @TheEnergizer942 жыл бұрын

    I loled at "Canada, American Client State" as a Canadian

  • @paul5475
    @paul54752 жыл бұрын

    The sad thing was the Americans are not doing what China is doing right now I am a Filipino and for the past years the PHILIPPINES and China relationship got sour. The PHILIPPINES seek help to U.S to stop China from building artificial islands. But Obama administration only responded by asking the Philippines to go to the United Nation Law of the Sea. Which the Filipinos done but China didn't even recognize the Unclos. The fact that U.S is way to late to react to China and it takes 6 years until U.S realize that they are not doing anything. After a new leader of the Philippines blaim U.S of not stopping China in South China Sea. The fact that the U.S according to President Duterte neglected it's allies and never even sail it's warships to also counter China aggressive stance towards the PHILIPPINES. The PHILIPPINES already have enough of that and just make a friendly relationship with China instead. The two nations PHILIPPINES and China already had a good relationship the Chinese are not that totally hated in the country q matter of fact in the Philippines Chinese New Year is a Holiday same as Christmass and Ramadan which in the Philippines also a Holiday for our muslim brothers. The PHILIPPINES has had a significantly Economic growth after it widen it's relationship towards China. To this day PHILIPPINES has the 3rd Largest Economy in South East Asia. China itself heavily investing to the country. Many big projects are begin already funded by China. One the PNR Bicol express which is a wooping 200 billion pesos mega Railway Projects which connect the capital city of the Philippines to Bicol the province in Luzon and Makati Subway which was also funded by the China. The Japanese had also invested in the Philippines to match China's investment. The Mega Manila Subway which is a 5 billion dollar mega projects one of many projects that the Japanese are funding. The America itself despite having a very huge Economy and money didn't encourage it's people to invest in their allies nation. What's worse is that the China capitalize this weakness of U.S rather than giving aid the U.S should help countries especially it's traditional allies to be economically powerful. So it can rival China like Japan does. But the u.s never done so. It is base on my own opinion and perspective. U.S is losing the cold war against China that's the fact.

  • @noahtylerpritchett2682

    @noahtylerpritchett2682

    2 жыл бұрын

    The U.S didn't act because the Philippines is a small non European country with mass poverty. So shows no interest in by the American government. Which is sad but true. America's alliance emphasis is skin based focus. Which is unfortunate but true. Otherwise America would do more to help Philippines if it went with morals, rather than if the people are white or not. The neglect is a plague on American society but is true. Unfortunate. So if it ain't white I suggest don't be a U.S ally. The bigotry in the government makes the U.S unreliable. As for the people that's a different matter, since unlike our government most of us myself included Supports the Philippines.

  • @XiaoPangZi
    @XiaoPangZi2 жыл бұрын

    One thought I had, is that the most sensible thing for mainland China to do is actually to initiate a war at the same time as Russia attacks something in Europe. Now add to this that N-Korea could attack S-Korea at the same time (as a distraction and because that is just NK style to piss other countries off), on top of that Iran could attack some other country. Now suddenly there are to many fires and USA would have to prioritise.

  • @lordinquisitorstefanauster846
    @lordinquisitorstefanauster8462 жыл бұрын

    If the US and NATO only gave a half hearted response to Ukraine's invasion then I doubt Taiwan would see any much help outside of "Sanctions".

  • @demilembias2527

    @demilembias2527

    2 жыл бұрын

    I hope so. A world war must be averted at all cost.

  • @felixdogan6776
    @felixdogan67762 жыл бұрын

    Love your work, full of information and entertaining

  • @TheLoyalOfficer
    @TheLoyalOfficer2 жыл бұрын

    I like your videos but you need to proofread the text parts that fill up the screen and also keep them up for a bit longer so they can be read.

  • @FattrTV
    @FattrTV2 жыл бұрын

    I think China is trying to wait on 2 things, 1 retraining of their army, as they just started moving funds from the navy to the army, and 2 the world is much less likely to step in and defend Taiwan if the new fabs are up and running in Europe and the united states. It makes Taiwan much less important, strategically.

  • @Diana-le7oh
    @Diana-le7oh2 жыл бұрын

    Canada: American Client State. Damnnmnn 🤡🤡🤣🤣

  • @brandonbonas2761

    @brandonbonas2761

    2 жыл бұрын

    As a Canadian ion like it but its facts 😂

  • @noahtylerpritchett2682

    @noahtylerpritchett2682

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@brandonbonas2761 probably is 😂 if WW3 happens U.S might get Canada to levy its population lol.

  • @alexbuckley4378
    @alexbuckley43782 жыл бұрын

    “Canada, American client state” 😂

  • @bobbymcbobington1637
    @bobbymcbobington16372 жыл бұрын

    You by far have the best of KZread what ifs and whys I always leave you channel feeling smarter