Do you guys practice Stock Astrology? If so, let me know why down below!

@fdhadi

3 жыл бұрын

no, I gamble in stock. I place my bets. based on gossips & rumors. tbh I win most of the time, and I let all my market experience out the window. because it is useless to predict it. the truth is ( the market is based on panics and news NOT pattern readings). that's how I work. and it works for me.

@archjc8873

3 жыл бұрын

do you sell ea?

@abdullahaleiti8024

3 жыл бұрын

Please have a look at "Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets" by John Murphy. He neatly answers all common arguments people say against technical analysis.

@teebuffet8393

3 жыл бұрын

I really don't use technical indicators that much, I think that looking at macroeconomics, current government policy and stats including company fundamentals in the long term have a better chance a success

@destiny_1on196

3 жыл бұрын

So what do you say we should do then

I used to think this way, but discovered quickly that I was very wrong. One of the reasons technical analysis works is because people use technical analysis.

@borntodoit8744

2 жыл бұрын

This "coding Jesus"...is so full of sh*t Just because he hasn't been taught how to trade he believes you can't trade. Anyone can predict the future. With two data points on a straight line trend YOU CAN PREDUCT A THIRD POINT BY EXTRAPOLATION THAT IS LITERALLY PREDICTING A FUTURE PRICE FROM.CURRENT PRICE Experimental results proove it again & again. I can predict the next 1min, next 5mins, 5hrs, 5days, even 5months into the future with 100% confidence ! Treat the market like a black box. It has a regular behaviour...while this Jesus can't explain reality of narjets...he fails other people have successfully modelled price (trend line is a visual model that works). Fckin academics can't do what my 8year old can do...he can trade using simple black box model I give him. It's all about whether you have the right understanding of the markets...THIS JESUS obviously doesn't hence he can't trade. (& Yes I make money from trading the trend, scalping, day trading, swing & position trading)

@carlhopkinson

2 жыл бұрын

Exactly. Short and Sweet explanation.

@donleonardestrera6092

2 жыл бұрын

@@borntodoit8744 Thank you for speaking up.

@bellswhistles-2083

2 жыл бұрын

Never thought about it this way 🤣, but as the dude in the video said, traders would look at the charts differently !

@MajaroReal

2 жыл бұрын

He starts saying that TA doesn't work because price movement is random, but price movement is literally not random, there are people behind every sell and buy and the future actions of people can be predicted (with various degrees of succes). Its chaotic and you dont control every single bit of information, but you can analyse previous movements and act acordingly. He also says TA people only use 1 indicator??? Thats a clear indicator that he himself does TA wrong as he doesnt understand or know how it's made. The patterns trend analist recognice are not patterns you use in society or evolution or even something you see with your eyes, you have to learn to use them and mean very especific thing, its not monkey brain sees monkey brain does. If you are day trading you don't really care about the long term price of the asset (even though you keep it in mind), what's going to make you money is buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, and you identify those points with TA.

The deep irony is that this guy is apparently serious and hasn't understood that quant trading IS technical analysis.

@kushalkatkar2523

2 жыл бұрын

why would this guy be on you tube asking people the pay him to subscribe if you can earn so much. Wouldn't he be busy doing the stuff that gives you so much money.he just sound like a noob who has read a little bout coding and quants and just blabbers.

@kushalkatkar2523

2 жыл бұрын

And he look poor for all the Supposedly great knowledge he has

@kushalkatkar2523

2 жыл бұрын

I think he always gets stopped out, noob.

@RapCity101

2 жыл бұрын

@@kushalkatkar2523 how much have you made from trading?

@MrPushupp

2 жыл бұрын

@@RapCity101 lmao 🤣

ALL models (including quant) are based on previous data, by definition. Anyone who uses a model of any kind is essentially engaged in technical analysis, whether it be a price chart, an income statement, or current order flow.

@abhinavgopinath5814

2 жыл бұрын

The historical income and cash flow statements do not impact the price of an asset. The drivers of all financial models are predictions of the future. You have it mixed up.

@CScott-wh5yk

2 жыл бұрын

@@abhinavgopinath5814 and what inputs do you use for your predictions? Seems you have it backwards. Data first, model second, obviously.

@abhinavgopinath5814

2 жыл бұрын

@@CScott-wh5yk Management’s forward guidance and industry CAGR. Future revenue growth rates in most cases cannot be inferred by historical data especially if it is a young growth company. The only time I would use hard data from the past would be to calculate a discount rate.

@CScott-wh5yk

2 жыл бұрын

@@abhinavgopinath5814 Industry CAGR is based on past data, so you fail there. Management Guidance is informed by past data, so you fail there too. And any multiples you apply to your forward figures are also based on historical ranges… there is no escape. As humans, all future projections are based on historical models and look-back analyses.

@abhinavgopinath5814

2 жыл бұрын

@@CScott-wh5yk I would love to see you make a DCF, you seem like an expert on everything.

1:10 if prices are indeed random, then there's no edge you can possibly have, whatever other data you're using as a quant would be equally as worthless

@robertschwenkler8105

2 жыл бұрын

Adding on that… if prices were completely random, then anybody who participated in the market would, over time always end up at breakeven. This is clearly not true in the real world. Interesting video, but it falls extremely flat, and neither does he present any evidence to support his case, beyond one hyper-specific scenario. He said he’d prove his opening statement, but he didn’t.

@user-fk3do1fe8q

3 ай бұрын

@@robertschwenkler8105 true. At least quote some statical maths and prove his points like a REAL* Quant Trader.

@friend2194

2 ай бұрын

​​@@robertschwenkler8105you seems to mistake price appreciation with yield, which also includes dividend. Also there are economic reason behind upward bias of the market. Still the guy has complete faith in random walk theory and market efficient hypothesis, which is just the same as blind faith of the ta crowd lol

technical analysis is not used to predict the future, but to read the present market.

@ObiVEVO

3 жыл бұрын

And why do you want to understand the present market. Could it be to make bets on what the future will look like?

@fakeasfluff6842

3 жыл бұрын

@@ObiVEVO its just psychological game. if you're feeling fucked in the butt, others will probably be feeling the same. that is just in the short term though. The long term, who the hell knows, I just invest in boomer stonk

@KrishnaGain

3 жыл бұрын

Human psychology also

@splint3048

3 жыл бұрын

It can provide some clue as to how far price may move up or down by use of support and resistance, or that it may indicate a new trend is forming if the price is breaking out of a trading range with good volume. It is pretty hit and miss though. A lot of pump and dump scams can create false signals. TA will provide only the slightest advantage if any at all but I think whatever your approach, the most important thing to know is that around 95% of people who start trading will steadily loose money to the point they either financially or emotionally cannot continue trading. My advice is if you must trade, get as much historical data as you can and do simulate trading and see how well you went. If you were profitable in simulated trading you may have some hope of being profitable in real trading.

@priceactionsetups9057

2 жыл бұрын

@@ObiVEVO Do tennis players read the future every time they successfully connect their racquet the ball :)

If you do not understand something doesn't mean it doesn't work. Technicals and fundamentals are different things, they are part of a whole. Best traders don't only look at a chart only but they study the sentiment, news, fundamentals, psychology of the market, indicators, long term market regime and then the chart. This cannot be quantified. It is so easy to create a MACD based algo strategy that makes money, once you understand how the markets work, the risk and randomness of the markets. Prices cannot be predicted but you can control your bets and position sizes. Patterns exist, the market is so full of trading algos right now that they often repeat patterns in the market, when they apear they can be traded for a short period of time.

@unfilteredminds-zd4ig

10 ай бұрын

there are not many good traders. You don't know what a good trader does. You are just pretending, the same as every other commenter.

@kiwizor9962

10 ай бұрын

how much % have you made over the last 5 years lollll

@robertmazurowski5974

10 ай бұрын

@@kiwizor9962 I don't trade, but I know poeple who made a lot of money trading, using Technical analysis. What the guy above does not understand that nobody makes trades based on technical analysis. Technical analysis is only for entries. Deciding whether to trade or not to trade takes big knowledge of the market.

Let’s not forget that the biggest payouts in the markets don’t come from great performances but rather it’s great promotions. Stay invested, diversification for streams of incomes is very important

@veramonique1724

2 жыл бұрын

Leaving it in investments rather than my bank accounts is one decision I’ll never regret, over the years I’ve accumulated tons of wealth from proper investments in Bitcoin, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and stocks. Currently I plan on maximizing my gains and growing my portfolio even bigger

@paulharold6721

2 жыл бұрын

Be it a crash or rise the financial markets will always have lucrative means for folks to earn decent payouts. I’m just being inquisitive? how are you yielding gains

@devdaniel3225

2 жыл бұрын

I’ll take investments in stocks any day they’re very remunerative only problem I’m having is I really don’t know how to go about it, I do get lost and overwhelmed by the markets. any solid pointers would be helpful, I’d appreciate if I got a reply

@veramonique1724

2 жыл бұрын

In general knowledge without experience, in the markets indeed can become very inundating, since the pandemic till today I don’t rely on full time jobs for money cause my expert Vivian Klaine Morgan actually pay off and I’m passively earning incomes. system has kept my portfolio elevated and healthy.

@devdaniel3225

2 жыл бұрын

How do I reach her ,you got any possible means of getting more info on her services?

I use fundamental analysis mostly, but i did start from TA. I've read a lot about it and what I can say is that you don't really understand TA yourself. And probably what price is also. Price is not value and these are two different things. Prices include emotions.TA focuses on these emotions, which can be visible in the price chart.

@leosgf

2 жыл бұрын

Please share your real results with us

@JohnDouqh

2 жыл бұрын

@@leosgf I don’t know much about ta, but I do know the market is based on emotions and rn there is maximum fear. Once the fear dissipates there Will be fear of missing out. I don’t think Jerome Powell is all that scary, do you?

@TT-jg8ju

2 жыл бұрын

It works. Use FA. TA and what whales are buying

@TT-jg8ju

2 жыл бұрын

@@leosgf mine had been 90% success

@52baldingindianjanitor72

2 жыл бұрын

Imagine telling an actual quant dev he can’t understand TA lmaooo

My lazy ass would love a video where you go over the empirical evidence.

@ydh1997

3 жыл бұрын

Underrated comment.

@CodingJesus

3 жыл бұрын

If you weren’t so lazy you’d see studies I’ve referenced in the description of this video.

@ramsesp5009

2 жыл бұрын

​@@CodingJesus When you say "TA is garbage" you need to clarify exactly what you mean. If you mean candlesticks & Indicators correlations, sure i agree. But if you mean Price action & short term momentum plays, i'm betting you 10k & willing to trade futures live in front of everyone to call you on your bullshit. We all know prices are random. That sole purpose of TA, at least for me, is to bet on the odds a particular system will work if i do it thousands of times, which has been obviously forward tested before hand. Essentially, you're trying to be the casino, if there's enough edge in whatever method you're executing, especially during unstable instances (Gap down, News catalysts) But on the other hand, i have to agree with you, on the fact that most courses out there are absolute garbage. Always looking for shortcuts in life, with those "Holy grail" indicators, nonsense.

@aleksandarpesic1412

2 жыл бұрын

@@ramsesp5009 100% agree. A very small part of technical analysis works better than random

@JP-wq6sb

2 жыл бұрын

Great video. I was surprised to read that the NY Fed did a study re: head & shouldersn and determined that they determine direction about 50% of the time (coin toss). Sullivan, Timmerman & White did a very extensive study of TA and determined that TA offers no long term or results (profitability). A 7 year old can learn how to read a chart, but the real stat (imo) is that 98% of traders are not profitable and probably 99% of them rely on charts. Only proof in the form of P&L could cause me to think otherwise.

This guy ain’t got a clue what he’s talking about. He wants us to die for his sins.

@drippinwet774

2 жыл бұрын

He's riding on the controversy. They can be *forecasted* screw this guy for not going into risk simulation & random chance. Don't let him pull your guys' leg

@kodiakgriz2296

2 жыл бұрын

@@drippinwet774 guess TSLA never on his radar with those T-Rex DCF projections..lol He learned coding in 3 months and he is Steve Cohen

@victoriacarmazan1951

2 жыл бұрын

Die for his sins 🤣🤣🤣 I like this expression. Will borrow it from you 😂

@80amnesia

2 жыл бұрын

totally agree

@qx-jd9mh

2 жыл бұрын

@@drippinwet774 Anything can be forecasted. It doesn't mean your forecast and risk models have any power in the real world.

Hopefully, you traders see the flaw in his argument. 3:40 He stated clearly that he "knows" price action is random. In 4:59 he also stated that he understood that price is subjective (meaning price action is based on the observer). At 2:40 He also states that people are hard-wired for pattern recognition. At this point you should see why the opinion in this video is flawed. Value (price) is based on the observer. We are social observers (group observers) hard-wired to recognize patterns. What appears to be randomness in price movement is actually a product of the competing intentions of social observers. Various groupings of social observers define price movement. The intentions of those observers with the most strength (volume and/or capital) will dominate price movement. Herd recognition and response to these movements creates more pronounced patterns. Based on group pattern recognition, the direction and duration of short term price movement can be reliably predicted with an accuracy above 60%.

@p3nx1lz91

2 жыл бұрын

Your whole argument becomes false when you realize

@shondmichael1363

2 жыл бұрын

@@p3nx1lz91 Clarity... All market participants recognize patterns (institutional, retail, etc). Fundamental analysis is just as much pattern recognition as technical analysis. All value is inherently subjective.

@p3nx1lz91

2 жыл бұрын

@@shondmichael1363 well institutions don’t use TA, they have mathematical models backed by a lot of data by which they make decisions. Also fundamental analysis is backed by logic unlike technical analysis. Maybe technical works if a trade is executed within minutes idk. I’m not against technical analysis just have some doubts of its workings. Hopefully I find data which proves or disproves TA.

@ScottAllenFinance

2 жыл бұрын

@@p3nx1lz91 Look up supply and demand zone trading.... 100% based on TA/chart analysis and is one of the most reliable day/swing trading signals. Also, if you think institutions don't use TA.... well, that's just ignorant. What you're saying is that institutions don't care about price. Obviously that's absurd: institutions are much better at managing risk than retail investors... so in that sense, algos very much rely on TA/price analysis. It's easy for people to pretend they understand the stock market. But really, anyone who claims with such certainty to understand it, really doesn't know that much....🙄

@p3nx1lz91

2 жыл бұрын

@@ScottAllenFinance hmm thanks for your input

Why focus on a single indicator? I use 200 sma, rsi, macd, volume, & 20/50/100 ema. Psychological support and resistance is real. Price is not truly random in the long term.

The very fact that people believe in chart analysis is enough to prove it has value - if we know people are buying based on patterns, all we have to do is look for those patterns and we know that other people are buying and selling based upon that pattern. If we know that a bunch of people are going to see a pattern and act a certain way that impacts price, that’s just another catalyst for our decision making. Think about it - if people believe a pattern is a bullish indicator, they’re more likely to buy which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy. All you have to do is see this pattern before others catch on and front run them.

@joeygarza9550

2 жыл бұрын

So basically, using TA is nothing more than _agreeing_ to "play the game" of investing while "making up the rules" collectively with others, which enables the "players" who've studied the "rules" (TA) and who abide by them, to profit by them.

@BigWickEnergy_

2 жыл бұрын

@@joeygarza9550 “So basically” is what you typically use to simplify something.

@RapCity101

2 жыл бұрын

For every bullish pattern there is a bearish pattern. And even if ta did work. Bots would be able to predict those patterns soo fast that youd always be too late.

@BigWickEnergy_

2 жыл бұрын

@@RapCity101 This is goofy and not always true.. Dumb money and liquidity pools generally fuel the success rate of patterns.. not always people seeing an opposite pattern. But even if it were true you’d have a 50% chance of success on select patters. If your money management and R&R are in order you will have a VERY lucrative career with a 50-60% win rate.

@RapCity101

2 жыл бұрын

@@BigWickEnergy_ dumb money are the ones who use them lol. These trends happen on covid charts, car crash charts. Do you really think covid deaths will outperform black death if it has a bullish pattern?

Maybe you haven't looked hard enough or your definition of technical analysis is different.. For me TA is to be able to find a risk defined entry point that gives me twice the reward and has a strike rate of 5/6 on 10...it's good enough to build a career.. It's a lot of work but it possible.. And yes pattern recognition helps.. Doesn't work everytime.. But it doesn't have to. Just enough so you're striking 5 on 10... Took me 4 years to figure out a system... But it works now....week after week.. Same boring process but effective.. Just manage risk, that's the only thing we can control. Trade outcome is random.

@jessymwepele9486

3 жыл бұрын

Maybe you can share please ?

@OfficialGoldenboy

2 жыл бұрын

We should create a group session? Inbox me

@bignastytiger4174

2 жыл бұрын

Very well said

@gabriela.3276

2 жыл бұрын

I love the fact that you talk about risk management and steady growth

@Moedow

2 жыл бұрын

“For me TA means - Doesn’t explain TA. Trade outcome is random, but not the exit”… Literally the same 2 things.

When there are thousands of people involved there is most definitely a trend! TA is basically learning what the pack is about to do. TA works really well if you can see patterns in creature habits. The reason we have resistance and support lines is because we have thousands of people thinking the same thing and drawing their lines on the same chart. Sorry bro but I used to think like you! It’s not about price at all. It’s about human nature.

@oentrepreneur

Ай бұрын

So how much money have you made from technical analysis? Do you really believe you can turn $1000 into $1 million with day trading?

@biyodahi

13 күн бұрын

@@oentrepreneur yep

Unfortunately for your viewers, there is a lot of misinformation in this video, and also a lot of assumptions on your behalf about people you dont know, including a ton of generalities that are dangerous if you actually believe these things. Technical analysis is so much more than the things you mention and works for reasons you didnt even address. I was actually hoping this was going to be a good watch.

@777jones

2 жыл бұрын

Have you published your research in any finance journals? They would definitely publish your article, if you are able to write down your way of using technical analysis to predict future stock prices. If not, maybe you don’t know about the subject?

@jamesonalexander5410

2 жыл бұрын

@@777jones I haven't personally but I can point you to 100 years of statistics, research, and backtesting if you'd like. Technical analysis isn't predicting, it's mathematics, cyclic behavior and pattern recognition. I'm not talking silly shapes, but actual signatures left from high frequency trading devices, accumulation stradegys and fibonacci based harmonic levels

@777jones

2 жыл бұрын

@@jamesonalexander5410 If it can't be used for prediction (or trading), what would be the point of doing that? Hobbies, artwork?

@jamesonalexander5410

2 жыл бұрын

@@777jones absolutely can be used for trading. The market makers and HFTs leave their signature in the charts. If you identify where they are going long and short, where they are accumulating, and historical data, you'll have a better understanding of where they are going. Understanding wave structure is very useful too. Wave structure is beyond trading, it exists in nature and abides by certain rules. These things combined with position sizing give you a statistical, repeatable, and profitable edge in any market. I'm not talking your typical youtube TA. I'm talking studies from the likes of Wyckoff, Bukowski, Gartley, Carney, and Elliot wave with fibonacci. There is decades of research, backtesting and data to support it.

@777jones

2 жыл бұрын

@@jamesonalexander5410 You just finished saying it doesn't predict. You already had the right answer. Technical analysis casts a spell on people, and it is hard to break. If it does not predict anything about the future, it means it is not useful to make trading decisions. If it were, you could leverage your trades, and you soon would be a billionaire. James Simons did this, but he is smarter than you or me. He and others then deployed staff and infrastructure you will never be able to compete with in your life. At best, maybe you rolled some dice and got lucky. Hats off to you for that. I mean that with respect.

This guy is extremely ignorant, tell that to all of the consistently profitable traders that use patterns constantly, including me. Of course we use multiple forms of confirmation but to think you need to focus on some “investing” thesis is just plain stupid.

@davidduries9112

2 жыл бұрын

totally agree with you.

@MrAlb3rtazzo

2 жыл бұрын

he got zero clues about basic statistics and very basic undergrad quantitative finanace.

@90deltaderivatives35

2 жыл бұрын

@@MrAlb3rtazzo that’s what I was thinking. So many people want to put others on a pedestal just because they say they work for someone reputable or because they have a lot of views on KZread & then they equate that with how much one should believe that individual or not. Technical analysis 1000% works, & unfortunately this dude just convinced a shitload of people who don’t think for themselves into thinking technical analysis is irrelevant because HE doesn’t know how to apply it, which is fine because it’s his opinion, but he should clarify he has zero clue what he’s talking about. 💔 Cheers.

@90deltaderivatives35

2 жыл бұрын

@@davidduries9112 🙏🏽

@MrAlb3rtazzo

2 жыл бұрын

@@90deltaderivatives35 regardless of what he said on TA, what he is telling people or replied on comments is full of basic math mistakes, i really think that either he works as something else, or is the worst quant in the world.

The kind of technical analysis which does work to a certain extent and is used by hedge funds and asset management firms is completely different from what retail traders do. One of popular class of methods is statistical arbitrage. A lot of asset management companies use price volume data to mine alphas and feed them to machine learning models which in turn generate signals for trade. These are the methods which work (but not 100% of the time of course) so far as "technical analysis" is concerned. All other stuff that retail traders do is considered a joke in academia. But that doesn't mean it will never work. If a lot of people are following the same method/signal to trade, regardless of whether it makes sense or not, some will surely make some profit at some times.

@TonyVuolo

Жыл бұрын

I've been using alphas based on sentiment

@ChrisosIDK

4 ай бұрын

That is exactly what I do as a retail trading quant. Find statistical alphas using TA indicators, code bots to take advantages of them. Profit.

The most important counterexample to your position is the performance of james simons' medallion fund. But I agree that most retail traders should not be trying to use technical analysis to try to beat actual quant funds at their own game. In fact, if people stopped trading stocks at all and just bought and held the index, even the medallion fund wouldn't be able to make money.

@sanguinor5609

4 ай бұрын

The medallion fund was built upon quantitative and mathematical models incorporating vast amounts of data sets not technical analysis.

@Dan-uf2vh

3 ай бұрын

After a lot more experience, I would say that today the main reason technical analysis doesn't work is that it is too accessible and the only thing to come of it for the average guy will be paying commissions, at the best, and losing even more at worst. Meanwhile, quant trading is technical analysis but it does any technical parameter that hasn't even been conceived of and seeks to optimize. There is no way for a human to compete with that, especially on a daily basis. Long term you could argue that markets have a tendency to go up, so just going for more volatile elements might make the more money. That's all you as a human could do.

I never liked and understood technical analysis. Except few years ago, I had a class for risk management at university, taught by two professors that are phd in mathematics and worked in the industry for many years. I was surprised to find out that they never looked at the chart, and all the TA was done using mathematical formulas in excel and were backtested again and again using small adjustments, and those "patterns" are actually betting on statistical chances. I see your point and I agree, but you assume that the efficient market hypothesis is true, while technical analysis is created on the basis that the markets are not efficient and there is no point on in trying to understand the market since information is not accessible to everyone.

@Ratatouille.00762

9 ай бұрын

Hi, do you mind telling me your major and what was called the class? I would loke to search info on this subject. Thanks very much 😊

@N-xi2zh

4 ай бұрын

Probably Economics or Mathematical Finance or a Finance major. Maybe Financial Engineering...@@Ratatouille.00762 The exact class, I finished econ years ago, I have no idea what it may be called. Check out syllabuses at your fav colleges/college of choice.

"Quant Lead" gives me "Tech Lead" vibes, shivers

@bennigan88

2 күн бұрын

omg I get the same vibes! (as a millionaire)

As a trader, your statement "...prices follow a trend if you believe prices are not random, prices are indeed random." is a yes and no. Prices are indeed random, its the individuals who partake in the markets that make it "not random". We as traders look in the past to identify places where more people agreed that prices are a good price. We as humans implement fear and greed onto the charts in other words supply and demand. As a trader, I identify those areas and assume based on past history that these areas will play a role in the future. That's all it is. Yes prices are random, but the people trading the markets have patterns that we can clearly take advantage of.

I completely agree with you in everything you have just said, thanks for the effort you are making to popularize the quant trading.

I once heard Jim Simon in an interview say future prices (to some extent) can be predicted from past prices and that absolutely makes sense to me. You can't expect prices to respect every S&R level every time - else every trader will become a billionaire. But the fact that you still see prices respect these past levels many times is enough to know that TA does actually work to that degree. A simple observation of price trending along the RIGHT moving average alone shows a pattern of movement - either downward or upward. If there's such a defined pattern of movement, then I wouldn't say prices are random since you now have some degree of confidence interval.

@Kochos

2 жыл бұрын

Amen! It's all about stacking the odds for a further positive Expected Value!

@Gindaman999

2 жыл бұрын

Nah, "A simple observation" of something that already happened is vastly different to using it to predict the future (which you can't). Not saying TA is garbage, it does allow trader to perform certain strategy in order to manage risks, and helps investors understand sentiments and historical data. But TA does NOT really give retail traders any edge, real edge always comes in order flow and psychology, as studies have shown.

@Kochos

2 жыл бұрын

@@Gindaman999 yet your account is in the red

@Gindaman999

2 жыл бұрын

@@Kochos don't be silly, either you join the discussion or thinking trolling enhances your argument, it's your call, lol

@Kochos

2 жыл бұрын

@@Gindaman999 so let's say you go long when the price crosses above the MA. After 200 tests you're in net profit. This is TA working my friend. Psychology at least, leaves PATTERN marks on the chart that can be captured with TA. I take in account that you do understand that we dont need to have 100% to prove that TA works but a good enough EV

Bro I study artificial intelligente for about 3 years, I have a firm, and I can absolutely tell it does work. Even if you plug in an artificial intelligence to the chart it soon finds out the same exact pattern found from other human analyst. You are saying algo trading does not exist, this is crazy.

@barreltitor1419

2 жыл бұрын

I doubt it

@c5quared626

2 жыл бұрын

i have only been trading with charts for 2 months. i am a professional engineer, very good with graphs and numbers. TA onlywith drawing lines and triangles, gives me approximately 50% advantage over just fundamentals and actual viability research. TA is like hacking human frailty, and it FUCKING WORKS, you dont know how to do it, you are not good enough with numbers and geometry, if you think it's COMPLETELY random

@scorch9736

2 жыл бұрын

@@c5quared626 have you considered having a KZread channel? Would definitely help the Crypto community.

@c5quared626

2 жыл бұрын

@@scorch9736 just trolling, lol actually haven't done too well in crypto, lost a bit gained back and learned a lot.

@SpectatingSpeculator

2 жыл бұрын

@@c5quared626So you're saying this comment was BS? Lol

Agree TA can't predict future prices however it can be used effectively to manage trade positions.

@treyquattro

3 жыл бұрын

only because a bunch of other people and algos believe the same things. Historical data is almost useless outside of fundamental and macro contexts. If something behaves in a particular way because of a chart indication, it's because someone has sold that indication as a reliable signal to all the other chartists

@tradehut2782

3 жыл бұрын

@@treyquattro don't speak of things you don't fully understand

@treyquattro

3 жыл бұрын

@@tradehut2782 stay in your lane, in your hut

@WillyWooly

2 жыл бұрын

@@treyquattro Then you are just saying it works then according to you because everyone follows etc.

@thomasj7506

2 жыл бұрын

Trey is actually right but again isn't that what price is? Whatever anyone is willing to pay is the the price at x time. Whether the price is the fundamental price, or altered due to trading activity is irrelevant. Trading is a game, legalized gambling. Some win, some lose, prices fluctuate, and while they are certainly random, the trend is not

THE SECRET OF THE FUTURE IS HIDDEN IN YOUR DAILY ROUTINE. CRYPTO AND FOREX TRADING IS THE FUTURE.

@SCOTTBDIAZ

Жыл бұрын

You are right but the market is profiting if you are using really a good broker or account manager to help out with trades or provide signals

@glennschweitzer6933

Жыл бұрын

I'm one of her clients.... and I'm a living testimony of Expert Mrs Pamela. She has changed my financial status for the best, all thanks to my friend who introduced her to me

@NeeliamMChuih

Жыл бұрын

She has been trading for me, her strategies are wonderful and she made me see binary and forex trade from a different dimension. I keep making profits weekly

@Guillermo535

Жыл бұрын

This above mentioned broker has been very helpful. I have made investments as per her suggestions and have received great returns. I had a good experience in trading with this broker so far, made over $70k on her last trading session last month😊😊.

@sirmoritzo.schulte5392

Жыл бұрын

No doubt Expert Pamela Trading Services is very good, I invested $5,000 and cashed out $14,700 after 3 weeks. I still wonder how she gets her analysis

09:00 the head and shoulders pattern is a pattern that indicates a potential reversal zone, that does not mean that the price will necesary change its direction, it is usually used as a filter to avoid trading in those situations.

Yes , while technical analysis doesn't work , but most traders use it (T/A). So me as a trader I keep my fingers on the pulse of these traders (who use TA) by watching the TA on charts to see what the masses (traders) are thinking, and I act before they do , because I know what they're thinking when they're watching their charts. Trading is psychological , put yourself in the minds of traders and know their move(buy or sell) before they even come to their own conclusion and act before they do.PS: always put your mind into what the masses are thinking /seeing while ignoring your own thoughts . Its like "ask the audience "on that game show, and you'll be right more often than not . Also , prices are random , but people aren't , humans are creatures of habit. This is the end of the lesson .

@PositronQ

3 жыл бұрын

I think you have not understood the meaning of video. Humans are not predictable, nothing is predictable if you know some statistics, both random movements, Brownians, determinists (without being conditional) or Monte Carlo properties, you can know that nothing is predictable, so if predicting something were possible then we would be millionaires, especially predicting humans.

@djimbrong

3 жыл бұрын

@@PositronQ on the contrary, people nowadays can be easily predicted just watch their socmed posting, in twitter, fb, ig, tele, wa, how they choose the goods they buy on amazon, how, when and what they click the news, how, when, why they click the YT videos. If people are not predictable why there are bunch of data science topics in internet and why a lot of companies nowadays aggressively looking for data scientists

@gtry2303

2 жыл бұрын

@@djimbrong people are looking for data scientists to mainly extract useful information that can help them generate profit to keep the company going. The End

@gtry2303

2 жыл бұрын

movements in market can be predicted not 100% , cuz no one is the algo

@dlozza2000

2 жыл бұрын

@@highpofly at least you tried

These kind of videos help me to keep my price action trading edge forever. Thank you. I love them people who didn’t put enough work in technical analysis try to convince others that TA doesn’t work. Just because you didn’t manage to make it work, it doesn’t mean that it doesn’t work. Anyway, you do you, I will keep using my garbage TA :-)

@boogaloobomber9889

2 жыл бұрын

And he even has the audacity to claim that he "knows the truth". What a poor, ignorant men he is...

@angelbenitez8035

2 жыл бұрын

I agree w you. VPA (Volume Price Action) has given me an edge like no other. I respect this guy’s opinion, but I do not think technical analysis is worthless

@JayTakeProfits

2 жыл бұрын

Big facts. Let’s keep making our TA money 💰😎💰 With TA you have to have discipline in following your set of rules. You’ll develop an edge and just stick with it no matter how boring it gets.

@SuperlativeCG

2 жыл бұрын

For real! This guy gives off a vibe of arrogant naivety.

@alvinmugambi6084

2 жыл бұрын

He's a textbook trader.. just some nerd that listened to the lecturer and believes it's the word of God.. this is why formal education is such garbage😂😂😂

I am a individual trader which HFT platform would u suggest me to use my automated strategy i tried MT4 but it was too slow and didnt execute orders on time also on wrong prices ,please suggest HFT platforms.

Technical analysis tells you when to buy and fundamental analysis tell you what to buy.

What I find interesting about TA, is that in the short term if everyone concludes that a stock has a particular trend (like up), then that will create buying pressure and momentum. So it's not entirely true to say that past price has no effect, because if enough people believe it does they will trade off that and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Having said that, it can turn on a dime so maybe there is an element of randomness too. My hunch is that Ito calculus is a better mathematical model for price movements that something purely stochastic

@bennya2846

2 жыл бұрын

U don’t know what r saying….do u????

@artofexistance

2 жыл бұрын

@@bennya2846 enlighten

@LucaPizzoplus

2 жыл бұрын

Isn't Ito calculus part of the stochastic differential equations field? I'm studying math now but I'm not at that point yet

@ralphralpherson9441

2 жыл бұрын

The "establishment" is moving away from strictly Gausian distribution in their calculus and starting to look at price action as a power law distribution. The Gaussian distribution assumption is 'good enough to cut the mustard' most of the time, but its most serious flaw is it underestimates risk.

@crazydog3307

2 жыл бұрын

the trick is identifying how big the dime that it turns on will be, so you can recognize it when its happening

Hey CJ, I get your points. A lot of quant trading is overfitting on past data and finding patterns in randomness. Just one question, if price is 100% random, then why can it still be statistically differentiated from a random walk? Think about the ADF test, Hurst exponent and variance ratio test. I am fairly new to the world of quant finance.

@thomasscoville1148

2 жыл бұрын

There ya go. Takedown in one move. You should have a channel, not CJ.

@SuperBayara

2 жыл бұрын

@@thomasscoville1148 ONE MOVE MATE!! lol

@michaeljankowski4627

2 жыл бұрын

ADF has low power

@tjipke95

2 жыл бұрын

@@michaeljankowski4627 Im honestly still very new to it and still wondering. It wasn't my intention to "takedown" anyone.

@Drew_DZ

2 жыл бұрын

It’s because it’s not 100% random and TA has its place in trading

I started with TA even after having an MBA in Economics, but soon I realized I was spending too much time trying to read charts and was getting stuck. Since I started learning fundamental analysis and buying and holding, the profits came, with less time in front of a screen.

@sakarikaristo4976

Жыл бұрын

It’s funny that both opportunities and problems lie in that although something has value in it, not all people recognize it. Somebody has written about TSE:2221 on a Wikipedia page and on forums etc. but the stock has not moved that much.

@TheRealDyscyples

10 ай бұрын

Basically you don’t trade

@DrBluefox

6 ай бұрын

the less you trade the more you earn@@TheRealDyscyples

@arsenalmanic

6 ай бұрын

How about the head and shoulders , the cup & sauce pan ? The focaccia bread signal ? The double top triangle suplex ? surely these are legit ways to $$$s. No ?

@DrBluefox

6 ай бұрын

@@arsenalmanic to be fair trading can be profitable, just not TA

After a lot more experience, I would say that today the main reason technical analysis doesn't work is that it is too accessible and the only thing to come of it for the average guy will be paying commissions, at the best, and losing even more at worst.

I don't know what kind of experience you have as a quant, but you really couldn't be further from the truth. Just some background for you, I've been working as a quant for nearly a decade and have experience across a broad swath of Wall Street banks and boutiques. Furthermore, I currently run a consulting firm. Many others have already stated many truths, but on top of that, tech analysis is used as part of a stack for advisors, traders, and analysts. That stack is comprised of chart reading, fundamentals, and all the fun quanty stuff that's involved with designing, backtesting, and possibly implementing of specific algos. It's not a perfect science with respect to accuracy and linear predictability, then again, no system is. If you were worth your salt in your field you would already know this. Technical Analysis is an entirely separate field from HFT, especially if you have worked at a prop firm, this is common sense. I really hope that if anyone is to gain anything from this video, it's that you have no actual idea what you're talking about and you're not worth a subscription nor additional views for spreading misinformation. Literally every major bank and firm I've worked at leverages TA to some degree for various reasons.

@Vlad-ke4ge

2 жыл бұрын

Exactly, on another video I cant remember exactly but I'm sure he said he worked at a firm for a year as a quant, now he thinks he knows everything

@chidianyanwu889

2 жыл бұрын

Ummm sir, start your own KZread channel. I’ve already subscribed to u. Make videos pls 😂. Would love to learn more from u 💯

@W1LdnKai

2 жыл бұрын

Even the largest hedge funds have a better return from long term holding then they do with their complex algorithms and bots etc.. they only continue use them because it's what customers like to see

@user-gy7cy7os7g

2 жыл бұрын

🤣🤣🤣

@prashanthb6521

2 жыл бұрын

Even I came to the same conclusion, he doesnt have much experience with the daily grind the market puts a trader thru and the learning it offers.

1) Work on discipline, risk management, and trade stop hunts paired with higher time frame analysis. 2) Laugh your way to the bank while watching this vid

@akaykenan9387

2 жыл бұрын

What do you mean trade stop hunts?

@cernabonati7022

2 жыл бұрын

@@akaykenan9387 I think it’s a contrarian style of buying when everyone is selling and vice versa, at the established price levels but it’s just MY OPINION

@akaykenan9387

2 жыл бұрын

@@cernabonati7022 how do you determine those price levels? Do you suggest any materials to study?

I agree with you on the "only using a single indicator" part. Something that you have to know though is that people can actually create an idea on where price is heading to if they do it correctly. Technical analysis isn't only about chart patterns too. There are different techniques that I use (Not only indicators, my trading plan doesn't use many) in my trading strategy that can earn me profit if done correctly. Obviously, Price action alone isn't very effective, but if added with fundamentals, I think if the person knows what they are doing, and isn't just using one simple indicator they can earn profit.

@ralphralpherson9441

2 жыл бұрын

YES, you cannot look at TA one-dimensionally. It is there to inform you once you have done the research and reviewed the fundamentals.

@rickyrelease9665

2 жыл бұрын

@@ralphralpherson9441 exactly

@olivierhayat4465

2 жыл бұрын

Good Morning, what's according to you the most important indicators to look at?

@rickyrelease9665

2 жыл бұрын

@@olivierhayat4465 TTM Squeeze, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic Crossover are useful when used in conjunction with one another on Longer time frames. Everything of course should come secondary to the fundamental analysis of a business and it's potential for earnings, and free cashflow growth

@MrSupernova111

2 жыл бұрын

I think a common form of TA that gets overlooked is dollar cost averaging. It works. Its not some groundbreaking strategy but its purely based on TA. I think monitoring a few indicators for securities that we're already interested in could yield additional returns. But I think Coding Jesus is talking about algorithmic trading which is a whole other ballgame.

Exactly . It goes like this and I know it from my teacher in Uni who is a trader . "If you trying to find a pattern , you will.. eventually"

Sat here listening him talk about fundamentals whilst trading crypto... huh

@boogaloobomber9889

2 жыл бұрын

Better watch them Bitcoin fundamentals ;)

How is the technical analyst saying when bitcoins weekly trend turns up statistically speaking it is a good time to ladder into a position,(or for that matter ladder into positions on the weekly up trend in Bitcoin when the 3-day stochastic crosses up) different from a quant coming up with a model?

@nilomartinezjr8005

2 жыл бұрын

Good point. Unless the quant model is bases on star charts, instead of price charts. Which would make it divination instead of science?

It is always satisfying and amusing to hear when people say this. Every day I can see the next trade and it is obvious in many cases using a form of technical analysis. (reading charts) Often people who are not able to see what is obvious and learn to trade, will say that it is not possible and that makes my work even more valuable. Best of success and happiness in this approach!

@erictuffelmire6826

Жыл бұрын

If that were the case you would be a billionaire

@MenofHighValue

8 ай бұрын

I totally agree with you. TA works

@laudatosiadastra1218

7 ай бұрын

I used to be pure fundamental but now pure technicals which I find much better. It filters out all the noise. I always used to wonder why stocks with ´amazing` fundamentals would take forever to do what I thought it would. By using technicals, it´s possible to find very many good setups in the strongest sectors based on the chart and volume characteristics. It´s not a science but a craft. It takes discipline and skill to master but it´s far easier to pinpoint good opportunities.

Prices are not random. There are also bad technical trading gurus who maybe indeed garbage. Technical analysis is not price prediction. It is finding value in availability and selling for profits.

By calling the entire TA garbage just to prove a point about scammers selling it is ignorant. TA is simply a statistical tool (MATH) to get odds in your favor. Any good TAnalyst will tell you that it is no holy grail. TA also respects the random walk theory and also any other theories out there. TA is not just about historical price movements to predict future movements, pattern recognition, etc like this guy claiming. It is understanding what other investors/traders are also doing currently. It is also a measurement of exuberance, fear, and greed in the market. There is a reason why this guy is a KZreadr(no different than others selling TA services) and successful traders are simply traders. Skilled traders do not need any services; these services are made for the lazy ones. Think! TA works, Quant works, Fundamental works, Buy-n-hold works, etc. You will find everyone in a different school of thought that has been successful based on their individual personality and lifestyle. Do not be ignorant like this guy.

@paduraruovidiu201

2 жыл бұрын

I agree, he is really talking shit :))

@panamahub

2 жыл бұрын

he's not even mentioning probability.

@ThaRealiestJEDI

2 жыл бұрын

Did you ever calculate odds to smth happen based on TA indicator? If you claim that's just statistical tool, did you prove it anyhow?

@magicsaint

2 жыл бұрын

@@ThaRealiestJEDI can you repeat this question in proper English so I can respond appropriately?

@ThaRealiestJEDI

2 жыл бұрын

@@magicsaint yes sure. Did you prove that any technical analysis indicator is statistically significant in terms of price predictions?

I disagree wirh this. I am a futures trader and TA is critical for my job. If you do not understand TA, it does not mean it does not work. Actually it works but... there are things that some people, even knowing some TA, do not know about. Some people simply do not understand the markets.

Any advice for trading options I'm a scalper and I do use technical analysis?I trade off volume and support and resistance not to many indicators because there all lagging.Any advice or websites for scalping and swinging options?Just found your channel your great !!!!

Day traders do not believe we predict future prices. We don't think that of it that way, at all. What we know is, millions of other people recognize the same patterns, using the same indicators respond accordingly. When millions of people see the ticker approaching (resistance) many take profits or exit their positions because we know millions of others are doing the same thing. We're actually creating the support and resistance collectively. It's not a prediction

@mrjp2149

Жыл бұрын

@@condingjesus1 no

When you look close enough you'll always find order within chaos. The charts are full of information you just have to be clear with what you are looking for. And it's not ease at all that's why people spend years to find their edges and learn to master them. At the end of the day it's not about who is wrong and who is right, its all about making money.

@ashleigh3021

2 жыл бұрын

You’ll always see what you want in the tea leaves.

@nap.of.the.earth...

2 жыл бұрын

Whether you're wrong orright directly depends on if you're making money lol

@saidabdallah3193

2 жыл бұрын

@@nap.of.the.earth... you may be wrong 60% of the time and still make money off the 40% to offset the 60%.

@nap.of.the.earth...

2 жыл бұрын

@@saidabdallah3193 if you're not making money, something is fundamentally wrong with what you're doing.

@diegosegura8715

2 жыл бұрын

@@saidabdallah3193 so you have to be mostly right to be profitable? Wow that sounds like it does matter who is wrong or right bro, lol

You pretty much lost me when you mentioned that prices are random. Human psychology dictates prices and a chart is nothing more than a representation of the market participants’ psychology. Chart patterns can potentially determine how greedy or fearful the participants may feel at a certain point in time. Does it always work? No. TA is about probabilities and in no way is some kind of crystal ball that 100% predicts what’s going to happen. Look at it as a tool that can be used along with fundamental analysis.

@radone7184

2 жыл бұрын

@WorldFlex As I said before, TA is just a tool and in no way, shape or form some sure thing that will guarantee you anything. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that it's totally pointless. How would you feel like if you had no price history to look at before investing in some asset? If the answer is "pretty confused" then it means TA helps you to make some decisions to a certain degree.

@zboobafett5984

2 жыл бұрын

Also yeah, if price are random how can they be trends ???

@dzairino2899

2 жыл бұрын

@@zboobafett5984 you need to identify trends via social media

@zboobafett5984

2 жыл бұрын

@@dzairino2899 No. It doesn't work like that. Study was made, there is is no 100% correlation between news/social media and stocks price.

@dzairino2899

2 жыл бұрын

@@zboobafett5984 sure no one can predict the future. i imagined the future and i bought projects that have solid goals and values such algorand , hedera, elrond. Thats what i believe now

am not trader but i can say In technical analysis, you are taught certain strategies, but many people doing the same thing may create a volume spike, and algorithms might end up taking your money."

So, you write your trading bots or whatever based on what? TA etc right? does that means the bot is garbage as well?

How are you defining TA? Like using indicators? Also, would you consider this TA or a quantitative approach. For example, lets say you back-test a strategy on historical data and find that 70% of the time when a stock gaps up 50% pre-market, there is a dip at the open and then a 10% spike, so every time you see this you buy the dip and catch that 10% move. Just curious if you would consider this quant or TA

@remkoehrhardt5879

2 жыл бұрын

indicatitors are def not TA

@humanyoda

2 жыл бұрын

@@remkoehrhardt5879 Using indicators is not using TA? What is TA then, in your mind?

@jamesflames6987

9 ай бұрын

That's not "quant" or "TA", it's a story you made up in your head. There are no such patterns and mathematically they cannot exist.

I dont know what people smoke to see hammers, tea cups, head & shoulders in the price movement.

@fox_den

3 жыл бұрын

I think I see the big dipper

@singaporeghostclub

3 жыл бұрын

🤣🤣🤣

@ayashdwibedy4183

3 жыл бұрын

Ever heard of Al Brooks. Go check it out. You will understand why hammers , tea cups and head & shoulders matter and why it doesn't matter. Technical analysis is but a small component of successful discretionary day-trading. If it was such a big factor, everyone would be shitting money and experience wouldn't matter. Yes, there are cringe content creators packaging pattern recognition as a course, but you would be naive at best to believe it is the holy grail for success in day-trading industry.

@Rahulbajaj561

3 жыл бұрын

Cup and handle work wonders, I used it in 3 of my trades this week, All of them turned out to be successful. My mentor sometime uses head & shoulder at 1min timeframe in Future indexs. He makes roughly around $500 per trade. His monthly accuracy is roughly around 85%.

@Rahulbajaj561

3 жыл бұрын

Just bc you dont know how to use these patterns doesnt mean it's rubbish

Whilst I'd agree most TA is nonsense you're totally wrong to say prices are purely random. That is not the case. Often future prices are easily predicted. This is one of the reasons insider trading is illegal. You can also easily predict the forex market when the bank rate changes. You really need to re-word some of your comments.

so the algorithm that runs the markets is random ? and past supply and demand zones don't mean anything and are just random ? liquidity levels that institutional trades use retail to fill their orders is random ?

Price comes from what the insiders know before you do. Case closed.

Is this guy serious? been trading for a living for years and technical analysis is what i used all the time. But the pros who win consistently combine it with market analysis, money management and effective emotional management. Technical analysis is important, but it's only 1/4 piece of the puzzle.

@rcmag13

2 жыл бұрын

@Sebastian I hear a lot of people keep making this argument, but I think it might be flawed. I don't think anyone is going to create a strategy that is betting the market will go down while the market has an up bias.

@raulesteves5264

2 жыл бұрын

Give me your P/L, and let me program your strategy so that I can see how consistent the returns are every year

@rcmag13

2 жыл бұрын

@@raulesteves5264 ?

@raulesteves5264

2 жыл бұрын

@@rcmag13 I'm trying to respond to the main comment. Doesn't make sense for someone to blatantly say he makes trading for a living without providing some insight in longevity. Everyone can have market analysis and management, but even that alone to trade on is speculating.

@imadewn

2 жыл бұрын

TA is useless, the most important thing is psychology, money management and keep an eye on the smart money movement

I am a researcher and a trader - I agree price is mostly random, most of the time. We use ML method to squeeze out potential profits, holding many positions and let the statistics play out. Technical analysis works IF a trader is exceptionally good (like you said, different traders will read different patterns). The tool is like a pencil and not everyone is an artist. One can say the same for any ML methods (which mostly don't work if all they do is throwing data at it)

How does one reconcile what is in this video with the fact that Medallion fund's performance " ... averaged a 71.8% annual return, before fees, from 1994 through mid-2014."?

Don't you think small prices movements can be predicted with trade flow imbalance and order flow imbalances ?

@onicelaux7756

3 жыл бұрын

Well, i do know thats a fact

the traditional way of looking at the prices with indicators doesn't really work. But the point is to have some probability at start and then adjust the portfolio as the prices move. it is wrong to say everything about technical analysis is crap. Best strategies are always simple but what makes the whole thing complicated is how you move your position given the large sum of money. buying a stock because of a MA cross over may not make money. But quite honestly, prices are not that random. At least to me, if you pick 5 good mangoes out of 10 from a basket, it is safe to assume that the 6th one would be good as well. of course you can go wrong. but with that probability, given the large set of trades you make, you have a more than average probability to win.

Price isn't random. It's based on people and bots people program. People are predictable.

What do you use when developing your Quant's what is it based on? Do you not use technical indicators?

I respect your advice but I have a question: aren’t you bound by Disclosure Agreements not to share your experience on Public Platforms?

@hansen370

2 жыл бұрын

@@thomasscoville1148 Oh man, good one!

@potentwater2260

2 жыл бұрын

Good question

@devstuff2576

2 жыл бұрын

Haha @Michael welcome to the internet. Lots of dumbnuts here

@macfiona4545

2 жыл бұрын

@Michael Bolton , is this yours Spam account?

@potentwater2260

2 жыл бұрын

@Michael Bolton not everyone has the same experience as you.

Data produced by a stochastic proccess of predefined rules can be plotted in a certain distributions, yet it's not purely random.

@karamokobarranco9986

2 жыл бұрын

what are you talking about?

@0824kenchan

2 жыл бұрын

@@karamokobarranco9986 that means data looks random, but if you decode well, you might find regularity.

@90deltaderivatives35

2 жыл бұрын

@@0824kenchan bingo.

@_harrysingh

2 жыл бұрын

@@0824kenchan true. And TA is not BS

have you done your own extensive studies, or do you rely on studies others have done?

Predicting prices from its historical state is literally like predicting a drawing from a scratch

Price is not random. Price is controlled by it's manufacters (Central Banks) and it's delivered through a Interbank Algorithm that is detectable and tradable. I repeat, the delivery of price is not random.

@capitola

Ай бұрын

nope

I've been trading futures for a while now and when I started (started in stocks), I believed in these technical analysis myths and then when I interned for a liquidity provider and realized how the game really works. A lot of HFT strategies use TA against you in many ways. Order flow based strategies are what the real prop traders use, especially in futures. Believing a price can go somewhere all because of a line on a chart or some indicator is pure lunacy.

@CrazyFanaticMan

2 жыл бұрын

How do I learn order flow?

@kptrzk9398

2 жыл бұрын

@WorldFlex but can you?

@BryWMac

2 жыл бұрын

HRFI index has underperformed the SPX. Most active managers underperform the SPX. Yes there's real systematic investors who are greatly outperforming the market like Jim Simons, but most technical traders use things like moving averages and RSI & come up with arbitrary buy and sell indicators without any backtesting, usually systems that they've heard about through the grapevine. A significant majority couldn't tell you the RSI formula.

@DivineAtheistWannabe

2 жыл бұрын

@@kptrzk9398 I'm sure you can. E.g. What if you see a business signing on huge numbers of clients that will have a big lifetime value for the business. What if some of these were big clients, big players. But this is not yet reflected in the financials for the business yet, because the value will only be realised down the line.

While a certain amount of randomness does exist, it's unrealistic to believe that ALL price movement is random. You can verify that empirically. And logically if prices are random and unpredictable how can trends exist? How can bull and bear markets exist if trends don't exist?

jesus please tell success rate of the prediction by AI/ ML models for index options trading for day trading work ? if yes which models and how and why and if no please share

Crypto investor here. I can tell you some of these tech analysts do look at several indicators at once, not just one. They also look at many other factors at play outside of the charts, the market dynamics, macro economics, business fundamentals, and even the psychology behind investing trends. Not saying I would pay $700 for a Tech analysis course, but if someone has made 10 to 20 times more money than me investing, I sit back and listen.

@HAGA7793

3 жыл бұрын

It’s all probability and when they get it right, it’s a confirmation bias.

@CriollismoPeruano

3 жыл бұрын

@@HAGA7793 It's all about predicting the most likely scenario of course.

If this is true why does using KDJ increase returns by around 90% vs buying and holding during the same multi-year time period?

@Nayr747

2 жыл бұрын

@@jason-ub8qz Why do you think that?

Your assumptions are wrong. TA isn't about predicting price, it's about reacting to price as it relates to volume and volility within a psychological pattern. Using support and resistance zones for better entry/exits

i'd argue that sure prices can be random, however they will generally follow a pattern of randomness, within a given range of randomness, which can be predicted, so although you cant predict exactly what price will be reached by a given time, it's entirely possible, at least theoretically, to predict the range in which that price will be

@svenbardos6637

Жыл бұрын

old comment, I know. But: It's even worse, if you look at a random brownian motion there is a range where the particle can be within the next second. It doesn't beam. Well, prices do beam from time to time. There can be huge gaps. One "black swan" event and the prices beam to the south :-D

@kaganozdemir4332

6 ай бұрын

randomness doesn't mean it can't be predicted though. you cannot precisely forecast maybe, but surely you will have a quite good estimate.

TA works because most people are trading according to it.

TA patterns are part of the same subset of patterns quants use, so defining them as garbage basically defines quantitative analysis as garbage. If prices are completely random there is no point of trying to quantify them and basically your job is a joke. You must be kind of not have an intuition about math to not realize this basic principle. Quants have their own kind of astrology, for instance defining volatility as risk, not because it's true but because they don't have any other way to quantify it. As Warren Buffett explains here: kzread.info/dash/bejne/e5mMlK-ikZyqe6w.html

@pipsrus8760

2 жыл бұрын

perfectly said

@alogahjames9490

2 жыл бұрын

I feel a deep sense of regret for ever watching this video.

@TheCuratorIsHere

2 жыл бұрын

Quant is garbage.

I think you need to learn Supply and Demand Technical analysis is not only about Patterns & Indicators, it's also about Psychology, sentiment and risk management.

The guys says that the definition of price is the present value of its future benifits/cash flows/returns and technical analysis is the inverse of it. But future cash flows/returns itself are predicted/calculated on the basis of past data.

But given that many people trade based on technical analysis, isn't that creating its predictive value? The head and shoulders example isn't a good prediction for a price, but it seems to confidently predict a thiker order book which in turn could be used to get a better price for a high volume order or something. I mean in essence, isn't a big chunk of the market just human psychology?

@navinasd

3 жыл бұрын

Price is also a function of views people are having over a time period. Charts are a view showcasing machinery. On patterns, fundamental analysis is also a pattern recognition exercise over the fundamental functioning of the company. The financial ratios do the same work as that of a technical chart over long term basis.

@razerfx8186

3 жыл бұрын

No because the value of a security today has no bearing on its value tomorrow.

At the very least, TA is excellent for revealing where the herd mentality of the markets are! Because so many market participants are believers in TA, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy and can absolutely be used as a predictive measure of markets. I personally have multiple strategies that seek to capitalize on the sheep trading solely from technical patterns and they've been working well!

@briangallardo3246

2 жыл бұрын

Yes their stops are definitely targeted

@criptochango9472

Жыл бұрын

You wrote this 1 year ago, where are you now? Working in McDonalds?

@millenialmusings8451

6 ай бұрын

@@criptochango9472😂😂😂

As long as technical analysis works for me (already for over over 5 years) i dont care if someone says its garbage or not 🤷‍♂️

I tried feeding prices into several different neural networks and couldn't find any pattern so I'm doubtful their is any.

The point of of technical analysis to have a idea of where traders/institutions/etc believe a product is oversold or overbought. No system is fool proof. But technical analysis, with good understanding of fundamentals, a proper outlook and experience increases a trader's edge. Thank you for you post, Happy trading.

We tend to agree. however there are certain patterns which most technical analysts agree on and this in itself creates short term moves in predictable directions. Admittedly longer term they do not necessarily play out but if all analysts believe that a price is going to rise off say the 20 day EMA then they will all take similar positions causing the price to rise - for day or hour traders that is all they need. That said we are great fans of DCF valuations - but this is more difficult in the crypto markets for example where currently its almost impossible to assess future earnings for most if not all cryptos.

one of the rawest and most enlighting youtube video I've seen this years (see decade). Thanks !

1:10 Undoubtedly, Statistics and data analysis is the KEY* to Quant trading. If one thing is going random, this is "USELESS" for doing statistical or data analysis. In every introductory level of Statistics Textbooks will mention this concept. If the market is random, you are saying the Quant Trading is useless as well.

@friend2194

2 ай бұрын

In long term it is, and you can make profit from these momentary price inefficiency, then in the process making the market efficient again. Still, it is just a hypothesis, not definitive truth

TA could be a good simple exemple of a feature extraction tehnics, like simple example of a base signal Many of these series can obtained with different ML or Fourier function aproximation

One of the best definition of price that is perfectly consistent with main stream modern finance that I ever heard!

@esyn4582

2 жыл бұрын

One of the worst actually. Incomplete and in some occasions wrong.

@nilomartinezjr8005

2 жыл бұрын

@@esyn4582 I would say it's not even bad alone, but naive, narcissistic and shallow.

There are two extreme sides to this. People who think TA is some sort holy grail and then there’s you who on the other end of extreme. Most traders who use technical know its limitations and only use that as an indication gauge price action and come up with a strategy, Price is not entirely random because the very basics of stock price is supply and demand. There are prices where market is willing to support a stock and prices where it won’t. Being able to read these price zones from the chart gives a trader ability to make good entries whether short or long term trading and make better exits. Then TA can also help you understand volume price action at given time. Chart have predictable behaviours under many circumstances it’s just not right to discard all of these analysis. Holding long is always good if you are selecting the company right.

Can you combine algo trading with chart reading?

Prices are not random. I call trades almost every single week.

@CodingJesus

3 жыл бұрын

Alright, Jon. Decades of empirical research are now null and void because you said so.

@jonfibonacci

3 жыл бұрын

@@CodingJesus I call trades all the time. Research is subjective. You can find whatever you want with enough data if you look at it hard enough. Why do you think banks consistently make money in a "random" environmetn? lol explain that one...

@TahaNasser

3 жыл бұрын

@@CodingJesus researched by who? Take a look at the pnl of traders like Swang, Shark, Steven Dux or even a pleb like myself and you need to ask yourself are we all just forging our results or maybe, just maybe, do we know something you don't?

@taypangshiang7935

3 жыл бұрын

Why aren't you the richest person in the world yet? Call a trade, put all your assets in that trade, if you get it right every week you would be richer than elon musk by april

@jonfibonacci

3 жыл бұрын

@@taypangshiang7935 lmao funny!

Here’s my TA. Buy low, sell high.

One thing you'll see alot with TA "analysts" is saying things like "it needs to break through resistance to go higher" or "it if breaks support here it will go lower". In other words "it might go up or down" and there's no scenario where they are wrong.

@Happymz

18 күн бұрын

Its all about picking the options with highest probability of occurring. Theres always a chance your wrong, and you meed to be able to recognize it, and exit

So what do you recommend over TA?

Well said! Nicely done. Now the hard part, getting a generation of Robinhood traders, who have only ever seen the greatest bull market in history, to understand this.

You are right but upto a certain extent. Technical analysis is a very broad term. There are traders who are very good at it and make good money entirely on the basis of Technical analysis. Quant trading is real thing & fairly new concept but TA is the based on real human emotions, fear & greed, demand & supply etc which is a part if real technical analysis you cannot underestimate it

@MrSupernova111

2 жыл бұрын

I think Coding Jesus failed to properly define what he considers TA and how it differs from a proper trading strategy. I agree with him but clearly some TA is necessary to determine entry and exit points.

TA is not expected to work 100% of time, to conclude that "it works".. it just needs to improve the quality of the signals.. it just needs to give a statistical advantage, and it does it, and it is really easy to prove this.. add a heiken ashi indicator to the graph, and a 50 EMA.. look at the moments where the blue candles are above the ema.. it is 100% clear that there is an enormous statistical advantage, for those who only buy there, above the ema, and after the red candles.. then more indicators can be added (and I did it), the best timeframes and the best assets for the system can be selected.. on top of it, fundamentals can be used as well, and price action/graphical analysis, and another timeframes can be combined.. create a exit strategy too.. so there is no limit for the possibilities.. if one says that "TA" does not work, so this person just doesn't know how TA works..