Why Russia is weakening Kaliningrad

Why Russia is weakening Kaliningrad
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Video Producers:
Oliver Franke
Charles Street
Research & Writing:
Emanuele Martinelli, Oliver Franke
Edit & Animations:
Timothy Simpson

Пікірлер: 2 000

  • @Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo
    @Pierluigi_Di_LorenzoАй бұрын

    You can't quote 2015 studies about Russia's possibilities to isolate the Baltic states, no one imagined then that Sweden and Finland would become NATO members.

  • @cortesimerci35

    @cortesimerci35

    Ай бұрын

    Nato is pointless, if USA for whatever reason deems that article5 is not initiated its game over. Also Finland and Sweden has no landbridge to baltics anyway

  • @DrinkTheKoolAid62

    @DrinkTheKoolAid62

    Ай бұрын

    Come January 20, all NATO bets are off

  • @Sebastian-fk3gs

    @Sebastian-fk3gs

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@cortesimerci35So meaningless in fact that russia ahas never attacked Nato conventionally in it's entire history. Latvia and Estonia have many ports to receive military reinforcements from Sweden and Finland

  • @n3viem

    @n3viem

    Ай бұрын

    @@DrinkTheKoolAid62 yeah, that mentality worked so well in 1940s.. oh wait..

  • @paulmurray8922

    @paulmurray8922

    Ай бұрын

    Not to mention that 9 years ago analysts didn't understand that, as its Ukraine misadventure has emphasized, Russia and the USSR were two completely different military animals.

  • @markmuller7962
    @markmuller7962Ай бұрын

    The isolation of the baltic has been effectively nullified by the accession of Finland ans Sweden in NATO

  • @Kerguelen.Mapping

    @Kerguelen.Mapping

    Ай бұрын

    yes

  • @drextercharles2389

    @drextercharles2389

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@notarmchairhistorian7779 exactly

  • @beepboopbeepp

    @beepboopbeepp

    Ай бұрын

    The nato thing was only symbolic Sweden has been a US ally for years as the spying cooperation between them and the US revealed

  • @erdood3235

    @erdood3235

    Ай бұрын

    @@notarmchairhistorian7779 overrun?

  • @erdood3235

    @erdood3235

    Ай бұрын

    @@notarmchairhistorian7779 Russia doesn't have an interest of a strong presence in the Baltics?

  • @ValensBellator
    @ValensBellatorАй бұрын

    “A 2015 study” I somehow suspect their findings would be a lot less pessimistic these days 😂

  • @niklasnorberg5071

    @niklasnorberg5071

    Ай бұрын

    Realy? Now when we have showed that most of our equipment wouldn't make much difference. 😂

  • @jaimeleschats5543

    @jaimeleschats5543

    Ай бұрын

    @@niklasnorberg5071 ? Without it, there is no doubt Ukraine would have fallen a long time ago.

  • @coenkloppert

    @coenkloppert

    Ай бұрын

    @@niklasnorberg5071 It only stopped the advance of the 'second best army in the world'(according to Russia anyway) and even pushed them back. No difference at all

  • @j.dunlop8295

    @j.dunlop8295

    Ай бұрын

    Poland's reinforcing its borders! History shows them the road from the past leading to the most possible future! 🇺🇦💙🇺🇲🩵🇵🇱

  • @SlavomirHajevski

    @SlavomirHajevski

    Ай бұрын

    They getting ready for war with NATO, they can't defend Kaliningrad at the start so they're redeploying all materiel.

  • @tobiasranevi7146
    @tobiasranevi7146Ай бұрын

    Small correction: Åland is a self-governing territory and completely demilitarized. If NATO wanted to use those islands, that would have to change

  • @SomeKidFromBritain

    @SomeKidFromBritain

    Ай бұрын

    I came to comment the same thing.

  • @beepboopbeepp

    @beepboopbeepp

    Ай бұрын

    Really how come?

  • @Bald_Zeus

    @Bald_Zeus

    Ай бұрын

    @@beepboopbeepp The demilitarization of the Åland islands was one of the Soviet Unions requirements in the peace talks after the winter war. As one of the conditions of a demilitarized Åland was a non-aggressive Russia, talks in both Finland and Sweden have begun about whether to start placing troops there again. With that said, Åland is special as it is legally a part of Finland but it's a self-governing area consisting of mainly swedes. The question arises if it becomes remilitarized, who will be stationed there?

  • @Ar1AnX1x

    @Ar1AnX1x

    Ай бұрын

    I thought he said Gothland, the land where all the goth people live

  • @SomeKidFromBritain

    @SomeKidFromBritain

    Ай бұрын

    @@Bald_Zeus BOTH!

  • @cestusfr
    @cestusfrАй бұрын

    Kaliningrad lost a lot of pressure it had over Poland when Poland finished the Vistula Spit canal too.

  • @MegaBanne

    @MegaBanne

    Ай бұрын

    Yeah it was hilarious seeing the Russian's seethe and cope over it lol.

  • @wladziuuuu

    @wladziuuuu

    Ай бұрын

    Man, it so funny😂 Pressure on what? Elbląg port is so small, its not a vital for Poland like at all, so idea of building this canal was kinda not popular in Poland. The main pressure are russian nuclear weapons, jets and EW systems, and the main problem, that we cant do anything with em

  • @philipliethen519

    @philipliethen519

    Ай бұрын

    @@wladziuuuuWhy did RUS gripe so much about the building of the canal?

  • @MegaBanne

    @MegaBanne

    Ай бұрын

    @@wladziuuuu Russian Jets are jokes. Russian pilots are even greater jokes. Russian EW systems are a threat to shitty drones. Maybe nukes, if they even work still. But trying to launch nukes from Kaliningrad and expect patriot systems to not take them all down is a joke lol.

  • @user-yd4om1qw3n

    @user-yd4om1qw3n

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@philipliethen519prove it

  • @g.aathoz1211
    @g.aathoz1211Ай бұрын

    How up to date are those estimations of Russia taking the Baltics really? The same experts who said Ukraine would fall in a matter of days? I think the only thing we know for sure is that we know very little and that the conditions of war have changed dramatically since the last great European conflicts.

  • @baguettedestroyer4145

    @baguettedestroyer4145

    Ай бұрын

    Ukraine if western support halts they would fall in a few months

  • @romanplays1

    @romanplays1

    Ай бұрын

    @@baguettedestroyer4145 it already had a 7 month period of no US and barely any european aid before the 60B$ package came around. so it'd take atleast half a year.

  • @nacaclanga9947

    @nacaclanga9947

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@baguettedestroyer4145 This was not the point here. The expectation (by both the NATO countries as well as Russia) was that Ukraine would fall within a few days. This didn't happen, the quick invasion failed. The longer term development is of course a different picture. And if we project this expectation (in the short run, they will resist in the long run, it depends on support from elsewhere), one could argue that Kalinigrad would be the more isolated place, that will succumb, not the Baltics.

  • @cortesimerci35

    @cortesimerci35

    Ай бұрын

    Ukraine had like largest standing army, Nato training and fortifications since 2014, and overall is twice the size of Poland. If all things equal we assume that baltics defend themselves, the frontlines would still move like 100km as buffer zone. Lithuanian capital is literally 35km away from Belarus. Not to mention that there is no military in baltics, and massive ethnic russian minority. Suvalki gap would be covered by drones and artillery , nobody could pass through. There are zero minefields and zero fortifications, Russians could move full speed and be in every part of baltics in a first day.

  • @baguettedestroyer4145

    @baguettedestroyer4145

    Ай бұрын

    @@cortesimerci35 baltics Have forests thats why the baltic partisans were called the forest brothers

  • @ii4371
    @ii4371Ай бұрын

    I don't think de-escalation is the goal, as just recently Russia declared its intentions to unilaterally change its maritime borders with Finland and Lithuania, and also removed some buoys from the Narva river demarcating its border with Estonia. Russia has ambitions in the Baltic region, but Ukraine just happens to be bleeding them dry at the moment. These recent actions are like a direct counterweight to moving equipment away from Kaliningrad, as if Russia wants to avoid sending a message of de-escalation at all costs.

  • @jacob4920

    @jacob4920

    Ай бұрын

    If Russia can't even handle Ukraine, then NATO has nothing at all to worry about. I think that's the message that the past two years have sent to the world.

  • @longestvideoever

    @longestvideoever

    Ай бұрын

    They're gonna run out of tanks and ifvs in 2-3 years i dont think they're ever gonna try to invade NATO.

  • @koff41

    @koff41

    Ай бұрын

    Are you a mouth breather. Gl and take your next vaxx and boosters.

  • @deividaszubLT

    @deividaszubLT

    Ай бұрын

    These ambitions is just diplomatic tool for them.

  • @erichbreckoff3405

    @erichbreckoff3405

    Ай бұрын

    Given russian state tv states that russia in the borders of the zars is its natural borders....

  • @reinerheiner1148
    @reinerheiner1148Ай бұрын

    Putin simply needs his military personel and equipment in ukraine. He can easily later rearm kaliningrad. He knows its safe from nato because nato would never dare to attack first. Any other explanation is just overthinking it.

  • @CAxPH

    @CAxPH

    Ай бұрын

    NATO could potentially cause destabilization in Kaliningrad potentially making it independent. With Russia moving away it's Military equipment from there, that move could serve as a check mate in way or could be used as a bargaining chip against the Ukraine war invasion

  • @HanSolo__

    @HanSolo__

    Ай бұрын

    He can't rearm Kaliningrad. Not easily, not hard way. Russia will not get back to military power it had from the Soviet era.

  • @sp7873

    @sp7873

    Ай бұрын

    exactly - the ever told story of NATO of being a threat to russia is just Putins narrative to justify his aggression against Ukraine .. and thus a blank lie!

  • @blackmantis3130

    @blackmantis3130

    Ай бұрын

    @@CAxPH lolx. Kaliningrad's population is overwhelming Russian.

  • @CAxPH

    @CAxPH

    Ай бұрын

    @@blackmantis3130 And? There is growing resentment towards Putin. Nothing lasts forever in geopolitics.

  • @MrTryAnotherOne
    @MrTryAnotherOneАй бұрын

    1. Kaliningrad (Königsberg) is a lost cause and couldn't be defended anyway. 2. Russia needs the equipment elsewhere. 3. The Kremlin knows dang well that NATO has no aggressive intentions towards Russia.

  • @TheSasudomi

    @TheSasudomi

    Ай бұрын

    NATO as a whole? Maybe. But the USA is a different story.

  • @WalterDeRooij

    @WalterDeRooij

    Ай бұрын

    @@TheSasudomi yeah, yeah. It's clear you got your information from Russian textbooks. Russia is economically too insignificant for the USA to care about. And now they've shown they've also shown their military is nothing compared to what it used to be. The USA didn't give too many fucks about Russia anyway but now they really don't. It's just Russia that keeps having USA wet dreams.

  • @jameslifetimelearner

    @jameslifetimelearner

    Ай бұрын

    That attitude needs to change,Russia will not stop expansionist long game.

  • @user-mu9bz6bg7s

    @user-mu9bz6bg7s

    Ай бұрын

    This is what we all said when we weren't sure if they would invade Ukraine. The western sleeping giant needs to wake up because ww3 already started

  • @quandangle9397

    @quandangle9397

    Ай бұрын

    @@shakalpro lmao??? when has nato as an organization ever done anything aggressive? delusional

  • @Lucas_Antar
    @Lucas_AntarАй бұрын

    Sweden: Applies to NATO Russia: let’s threaten Gotland that’ll show them we are peaceful.

  • @jacob_dcdn

    @jacob_dcdn

    Ай бұрын

    Russians are very simple people. They are honest in their agression. I never personally met a clever Russian, honest to God I haven't. They all act this way on personal level too.

  • @cunning-stunt

    @cunning-stunt

    17 күн бұрын

    US nukes in Sweden is a threat to Russia. NATO is on Russia's borders. Who threatened who first? No wonder a Yasen class submarine just sailed into Cuba.

  • @DavidFMayerPhD
    @DavidFMayerPhDАй бұрын

    36 to 60 hours: The same time frame predicted for the conquest of Ukraine. How did THAT work out? In its current condition, Russia could not take over the three Baltic countries in 36 to 60 YEARS.

  • @Codex7777

    @Codex7777

    18 күн бұрын

    The narrator said that, in light of recent events, such estimates are unreliable, at best and were probably an overestimation of Russian capabilities. We also need to be careful not to go too far in the other direction. Underestimation of Russia's capabilities is even more dangerous, especially as Russia appears to be finally learning some lessons from this war. Also, the Baltic states are much smaller than Ukraine, easier to isolate and all 3 have large Russian populations, similar to Eastern Ukraine. Having said all that, I don't think Russia intends to invade the Baltic states. I'm Putin would love to annex them but doing so is impossible, without provoking a potential war with NATO, which Russia couldn't win.

  • @MrMAC8964

    @MrMAC8964

    16 күн бұрын

    @@Codex7777 they have "learned" nothing since the first world war , and are the types of people that never will . It`s a lack of working together that`s got them there , it`s been built into them for decades. The ones at the top bark and everybody does there bidding even if they have a better idea lmao . DOOMED is what we call this in the WEST .

  • @nxibba

    @nxibba

    5 күн бұрын

    you do realise russia didnt send their whole force to defeat ukraine right? there are a lot of troops on standby for other reasons. but i still dont understand putin s plans in all of this, it just doesnt make sense

  • @DavidFMayerPhD

    @DavidFMayerPhD

    5 күн бұрын

    @@nxibba Putin dares NOT remove forces from the borders with China and India, so those forces are unavailable for the invasion.

  • @adamperdue3178

    @adamperdue3178

    3 күн бұрын

    @@nxibba They wouldn't send their whole force to the Baltics either, in the case of a full-scale war with NATO. Unless their plan is to just lose Vladivostok for free, they wouldn't keep all their forces in Europe, either.

  • @ettoreatalan8303
    @ettoreatalan8303Ай бұрын

    Historically, Königsberg (its real name) is not a Russian territory. Putin keeps forgetting this in his historical claims.🤔

  • @axllii

    @axllii

    Ай бұрын

    After a fully approved and accepted referendum, it was voted to be called Kralovec, an autonomous exclave province of Czechia.

  • @ops3892

    @ops3892

    Ай бұрын

    @@axllii After genociding its population and forcing Russian culture on it with armed military standing outside the voting booths to make sure you vote to join Russia. How delusional can you be? Are you a bot comment or an actual npc sheeple?

  • @jacob4920

    @jacob4920

    Ай бұрын

    Dictators don't operate on logic. Just look at all of the territory owned by other countries that CHINA is claiming, under the CCP.

  • @dereksollows9783

    @dereksollows9783

    Ай бұрын

    @@axllii Really? When did this happen? ...and why has Czechia picked-up the reins of government for the area with yet another new name, Kralovec.

  • @axllii

    @axllii

    Ай бұрын

    @@dereksollows9783 Of course not 😥🤡 it's a joke about the "fully approved and legal" referendum of Lugansk and Zaporitsia (sp?).

  • @dustinhamabata902
    @dustinhamabata902Ай бұрын

    Russia can isolate the baltics but the Baltics in cooperation with Finland can block Leningrad port, Russia's main port, and home to her Baltic sea Fleet.

  • @944Henri

    @944Henri

    22 күн бұрын

    There is no way that russia can isolate us :D! Estonia and Finland can isolate russia, by moving our maritime border to international standard. So Petersburg will be isolated via sanctions. So be careful what you wish for.

  • @markheithaus
    @markheithaus29 күн бұрын

    Belarus isn't a Russian ally. It IS Russia at this point. Less than 20% of the people speak Belarusian, and Lukashenko is more like a governor. Belarus is Russia.

  • @cthoadmin7458

    @cthoadmin7458

    20 күн бұрын

    There's a wonderful incident where Lukashenko is visiting Russia and greeting Putin, neither realised the press microphones were on. Putin says "thanks for coming". Lukashenko responds "did I have a choice?"

  • @markheithaus

    @markheithaus

    20 күн бұрын

    @@cthoadmin7458 😆😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣

  • @stoferb876

    @stoferb876

    19 күн бұрын

    Yes. Belarus is pretty much just a province of russia. But not because a minority speak Belarusian. Remember that a very large portion of Ukrainians are Russian speakers too. Even the president of Ukraine had Russian as his mother tongue and Ukrainian as a second language. So likewise there is a far more to Belarusian identity than merely speaking Belarusian as your first language. It's political circumstances that has made Belarus a puppet of Russia, not linguistics.

  • @57thorns

    @57thorns

    18 күн бұрын

    @@stoferb876 It is not as if Lukashenko will surive Putin by more than a few days or weeks at the most. The people of Belarus really want to get rid of that puppet.

  • @markheithaus

    @markheithaus

    18 күн бұрын

    @@stoferb876 fair point. Ukraine does seem to be making more of an effort to advance Ukrainian, though. I guess just because they're allowed to.

  • @Hession0Drasha
    @Hession0DrashaАй бұрын

    Replacing the energy infrastructure, disconecting the baltics from russia and to the rest of europe, has happened far quicker than anyone thought possible. The transport infrastructure is coming along at pace as well. Making the baltics even less vulnerable, every day that passes.

  • @deanfirnatine7814

    @deanfirnatine7814

    Ай бұрын

    There is even a independence movement among the Russian population in Kaliningrad.

  • @tmike_tc

    @tmike_tc

    Ай бұрын

    That and the little man with the huge table has his hands full with his Special Military Operation, and keeping a lid on the Russian populace.

  • @flashybangy

    @flashybangy

    Ай бұрын

    @@deanfirnatine7814 really? that's funny asf

  • @AstralLice83

    @AstralLice83

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@flashybangyits fake lol. This movement existed only in 2000

  • @UhtredOfBamburgh

    @UhtredOfBamburgh

    Ай бұрын

    @@deanfirnatine7814 If they separate now then Putin cannot get to them through Europe. If they wait until the war is over Russia may be able to defend Kaliningrad again one day.

  • @tmike_tc
    @tmike_tcАй бұрын

    Kaliningrad is important because that is where the little man with the huge table docks his superyacht - the one they snuck out of the Hamburg shipyards without paying the bill. Not that he will ever step foot on it again, but.

  • @UhtredOfBamburgh

    @UhtredOfBamburgh

    Ай бұрын

    at least he can still eat hamburger sandwiches and theres nothing anyone can do about it. Yet another win for Muscovia!

  • @brentchattin6081
    @brentchattin6081Ай бұрын

    I think that Putin realizes that especially with Sweden and Finland joining NATO and Poland joining a land border with Kaliningrad, every military installation in that small enclave is already targeted by NATO forces and likely have precision weapons headed for those v targets within just a few hours of a Russian attack. With no easy way to move those Russian weapons to a more secure area. Finland and Sweden can bottle Russian naval forces up and while Russian weapons in Kaliningrad can hit many locations in Eastern Europe, even more NATO weapons can hit Kaliningrad. Plus the botched invasion of Ukraine has decimated Russian manpower and weapons systems and shown their vulnerability to fairly standard portable shoulder fired anti-tank and close in anti-aircraft weapons. In addition to a NATO air force and precision artillery, rockets, and missiles. And the NATO will to use them immediately in defense against Russian incursions into the Baltic states after seeing how Russia ignores national borders. Which means Russia would need to develop a completely new plan for an invasion or risk an even worse defeat than they encountered in the first month of the Ukrainian invasion.

  • @johnsmiff8328
    @johnsmiff8328Ай бұрын

    Something makes me think if they tried this tomorrow, Poland would jump at the opportunity to transform Kaliningrad into a part of the sea floor

  • @poka26ev2

    @poka26ev2

    29 күн бұрын

    Russia wanting to unite Kaliningrad with the motherland is like Germany wanting to unite East Prussia to the Fatherland

  • @benwouda

    @benwouda

    29 күн бұрын

    @@poka26ev2 I wonder what happend the last time they tried that...

  • @hulking_presence

    @hulking_presence

    15 күн бұрын

    @@benwouda Russians took Berlin.

  • @ehsnils
    @ehsnilsАй бұрын

    Everyone talks about closing the Suwalki Gap, but then continues to totally ignore the fact that there's no infrastructure there at all. The actual infrastructure is going right through Vilnius and Kaunas (look at the railroad) and that means that to close the gap a lot more effort is needed and the land between 54 and 55 degrees north has to be secured. This isn't some small operation. There are some small roads around Suwalki, but it would just create a logistical nightmare to just try to close the gap. An incursion taking Vilnius and Kaunas would definitely be an Article 5 event. So I'd expect that Russia will just stick to making noise and test the water now and then with small action, invading the Baltic states could be way too expensive. For Russia Kaliningrad is now just a liability, not an asset. It started to become a liability as soon as the Baltic states became independent. With Sweden and Finland in NATO it's even more so and it makes sense to remove most military assets from there and just use it as a forward base with limited capabilities and mostly used for intelligence purposes.

  • @Nikita-yy9hi
    @Nikita-yy9hiАй бұрын

    10:47 Narrator: from 10b to 15b! Graphs on the screen: from 11.8b to 14.3b...

  • @pibroch

    @pibroch

    Ай бұрын

    Yeah - that destroyed the credibility of this video: obviously scripted by amateurs.

  • @Mark-ml3nv
    @Mark-ml3nvАй бұрын

    It's almost like Putin is admitting NATO is not an aggressive pact.

  • @iamoutofideas13

    @iamoutofideas13

    Ай бұрын

    Tell that to Serbia and Libya, see what they have to say about it.

  • @sjonnieplayfull5859

    @sjonnieplayfull5859

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@iamoutofideas13 what parts were invaded by Nato ground forces, and what parts were annexed? Curious to know because I heard so much about Nato aggression, but no one seems to have details

  • @herbivorethecarnivore8447

    @herbivorethecarnivore8447

    Ай бұрын

    @@iamoutofideas13 Sorry, when did NATO annex other countries?

  • @philippeguiot9367

    @philippeguiot9367

    Ай бұрын

    @@iamoutofideas13 L’opération dirigée par l’OTAN en Libye en 2011 a été lancée en vertu de deux résolutions du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU (résolutions 1970 et 1973) qui n’ont suscité, ni l’une ni l’autre, l’opposition de la Russie. Le Conseil autorisait la communauté internationale «à prendre toutes mesures nécessaires» pour «protéger les populations et les zones civiles menacées d’attaque» avec le soutien politique et militaire de pays de la région et de membres de la Ligue arabe. Les Forces démocratiques syriennes du Conseil exécutif (Rojava), le gouvernement du Rojava, ont reçu le soutien militaire et logistique de certains pays de l'OTAN, en particulier des États-Unis. Depuis juillet 2015, elle a été attaquée par l'armée turque et l'Armée syrienne libre soutenue par la Turquie, conduisant à l'occupation turque du nord de la Syrie.

  • @SMGJohn

    @SMGJohn

    29 күн бұрын

    @@sjonnieplayfull5859 Are you denying NATO planes were bombing Gaddafi? LOL Delusional at its finest, why do you not join the NSDAP you seem to have a lot in common.

  • @akmalhafiz8763
    @akmalhafiz8763Ай бұрын

    36 to 60 hours to take the capital of the 3 Baltic states. That's basically the same things they said when Russia invaded Ukraine 2 years ago. Where are we right now?

  • @gintasvilkelis2544

    @gintasvilkelis2544

    Ай бұрын

    And in Feb 2022 Russia had the surprise factor (Ukraine didn't believe that Russia would actually _invade)._

  • @X-jn87ybt

    @X-jn87ybt

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@gintasvilkelis2544bruh NATO made Ukraine a fortress since 2014 and everybody knows Russia would invade. But the only one who's surprised is Russia who thought brotherly Ukraine would never stand against it and surrender.

  • @gintasvilkelis2544

    @gintasvilkelis2544

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@X-jn87ybt To say that " NATO made Ukraine a fortress since 2014" is an exaggeration. And the statement "everybody knows Russia would invade" flies in the face of facts that were on the ground before the Feb 2022 invasion, since the Ukrainian government's refusal to believe that Russians would mount a full-scale invasion is well documented. That said, it is also true that Russia was surprised by the magnitude of the Ukrainians' resistance.

  • @erosgritti5171

    @erosgritti5171

    Ай бұрын

    You cannot compare the invasion of the second largest country in Europe with 40 million inhabitants, with small countries that barely reach 10, all three together

  • @gintasvilkelis2544

    @gintasvilkelis2544

    Ай бұрын

    @@erosgritti5171 It's no more than 6 million, actually, but on the other hand, (1) they are NATO members, and (2) Russia will not have the "surprise factor" advantage.

  • @TheJere213
    @TheJere213Ай бұрын

    russia: NATO is an existential threat to us. *Purposefully weakens their NATO borders* russia: We are just training we will not invade Ukraine. *Invades Ukraine*

  • @grlt23

    @grlt23

    Ай бұрын

    How do you know russians are lying? Their mouth is moving...

  • @MS-vv7wf

    @MS-vv7wf

    Ай бұрын

    Doublethink at its finest.

  • @HNH421

    @HNH421

    Ай бұрын

    @@MS-vv7wf you are correct A riddle 💩 Wrapped in a mystery 🧻 Inside an enigma 💤🚽

  • @angelarch5352

    @angelarch5352

    Ай бұрын

    russia: Everything is going to plan. russia (2 years later): arrests 100 of their top generals and begs North Korea for military help.

  • @dzonikg

    @dzonikg

    Ай бұрын

    @@angelarch5352 Well NATO cries to India for shells

  • @pcread
    @pcreadАй бұрын

    S-400 has been shown to be vulnerable to ATACMS and other NATO missiles. Poland's order of many, many HIMARS means Kaliningrad and the Suwalki gap are untenable in the event of conflict. All oil and other cargo shipping from russian Baltic ports would be halted.

  • @bullbutter9699

    @bullbutter9699

    Ай бұрын

    NATO Has Nothing !!! Glory to Russia

  • @deanfirnatine7814

    @deanfirnatine7814

    Ай бұрын

    Not only actual HIMARS but the Korean version of HIMARS as well

  • @miauw1999

    @miauw1999

    Ай бұрын

    I mean yeah but russian air defense and jamming also didn't work well against HIMARS at the start. Of course later on in the war Russia adapted its air defense software and jamming and now they shoot down much more HIMARS missiles, no reason to assume the same for ATACMS. They're not a wonder weapon.

  • @X-jn87ybt

    @X-jn87ybt

    Ай бұрын

    You will be a fool if you think Russia will be this soft if an invasion were to take place against its territory. Ukraine is a brother state and its people are Russian so the Kremlin has to abide by soft force and a minimal escalation to stop russians from going against putin. NATO is off limits and they can do whatever they want. Every base will be erased on day 1. Even the bases inside the US mainland. So don't compare the Ukraine war with a war against NATO.

  • @gdutfulkbhh7537

    @gdutfulkbhh7537

    Ай бұрын

    S-400 is "state of the art" for russia? Oh dear.

  • @20quid
    @20quid29 күн бұрын

    They used to call Cyprus the unsinkable aircraft carrier. That description now applies to Gotland.

  • @matthewhuszarik4173
    @matthewhuszarik4173Ай бұрын

    Kaliningrad is lost territory it is insane expending significant resources trying to defend it.

  • @marka7759
    @marka7759Ай бұрын

    I loved how the polish changed the city signs at the exclave to "Königsberg" 😂 when invasion began

  • @SlavicCoffee

    @SlavicCoffee

    Ай бұрын

    Wait is this for real? I want to see it. lol

  • @marka7759

    @marka7759

    Ай бұрын

    @@SlavicCoffee just google :D

  • @SlavicCoffee

    @SlavicCoffee

    Ай бұрын

    @@marka7759 okay, what do I look up ?

  • @TheKrissoX

    @TheKrissoX

    Ай бұрын

    @@SlavicCoffee for example "GDDKiA zmienia na tablicach drogowych nazwę Kaliningrad na Królewiec " in google graphics

  • @SlavicCoffee

    @SlavicCoffee

    Ай бұрын

    @@TheKrissoX thanks! I will go look this up

  • @kleinweichkleinweich
    @kleinweichkleinweichАй бұрын

    little typo, it should say: Königsberg was isolated from the Fatherland

  • @audience2
    @audience2Ай бұрын

    The Russians know Kaliningrad isn't under threat of invasion.

  • @UhtredOfBamburgh

    @UhtredOfBamburgh

    Ай бұрын

    The Russians know that Ukrainians are blowing up Russian S-400 missile defence systems fairly often and these are much more complicated to build as well as much more expensive to replace than regular military equipment. They are vehicular supercomputers with a lot of electronics and radar systems, they cannot be donated by North Korea and actually require some Western components which at best would now have to be bought 3rd or 4th hand off the black market in Africa or Asia... Turns out Russia relied on Europe much more than Europe relied on Russia, I don't know how Putin's ego could be so big as to miss that despite what he tells his public about how great Muscovia is

  • @aerohard
    @aerohardАй бұрын

    LOL, as if Belarus wouldn't make themselves scarce as soon as they know the pointy shit will be flying their way.

  • @easy94883

    @easy94883

    Ай бұрын

    They have Nukes too...

  • @tulliusexmisc2191

    @tulliusexmisc2191

    Ай бұрын

    Belarus is Russian-occupied. Who do you think re-elected Lukashenko? It wasn't the Belarusians.

  • @domasabrom2994

    @domasabrom2994

    Ай бұрын

    @@tulliusexmisc2191 nobody re-elect him, he lost elections and then just wiped all protestors and opposition with military and simply standing as president again

  • @hermes7587
    @hermes7587Ай бұрын

    I think that Russia has realized that there is no way to defend the Kaliningrad exclave, if there would be ever a hot war with NATO. On the other hand NATO bends over backwards not to threaten Russia. Considering this it makes sense for Russia to pull urgently needed equipment from an area that is protected by NATO anyway.

  • @cunning-stunt

    @cunning-stunt

    17 күн бұрын

    Ships in those seas would be surrounded by NATO allied countries, as a result the sea port is strategically useless. Watch Russia destroy it and leave.

  • @danhove
    @danhoveАй бұрын

    Including the comments of the listeners This is really good shared far and wide. Thank you

  • @danhove

    @danhove

    Ай бұрын

    Very very informative. And comments include details that the video may have missed. Or perhaps make question the conclusions. Discussion is good. that's awesome thanks

  • @marsilt
    @marsiltАй бұрын

    Baltic sea between Estonia and Finland is ca 80 km wide. I find funny that someone suggest Gotland or Aland being most important disrupting Kaliningrad resupply from St Petersburg because both Estonia and Finland have South-Korean self propelled howitzers K9 which will blockade any maritime movement from Russia not to mention costal defense missiles and sea mines. Gotland is absolutely important for supplying Baltics and air defense but first line of blockade is close to St Petersburg. Idea isn't new because already in Russian Empire there were coastal artillery to protect St Petersburg.

  • @JanoschNr1
    @JanoschNr1Ай бұрын

    Russia "We fear war on our borders from a Nato attack, that's why we were forced to attack ukraine and withdraw our troops from the nato border!" Make it make sense ...

  • @elsol1176

    @elsol1176

    Ай бұрын

    They have made an assessment that they can win in Ukraine or that the Ukrainian conflict takes priority so resources are allocated to that conflict. What's hard to understand?

  • @Hades_Space_Engineer

    @Hades_Space_Engineer

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@elsol1176pro tip! Don't start a war that will weaken you if you fear your neighbours aggression

  • @gintasvilkelis2544

    @gintasvilkelis2544

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@elsol1176 No, that's not why. Russia's actions reveal its actual thoughts: "We badly want to own Ukraine, and we are not really worried about getting attacked by NATO".

  • @elsol1176

    @elsol1176

    Ай бұрын

    @@Hades_Space_Engineer Pro tip. That only matters of your neighbour does something.

  • @elsol1176

    @elsol1176

    Ай бұрын

    @@gintasvilkelis2544 that's literally what I said in different words.

  • @danb2234
    @danb2234Ай бұрын

    Damn didnt know your production quality could get much better! Great job, love your videos!

  • @Tartarus144
    @Tartarus144Ай бұрын

    "Russia could isolate the baltics" Sweden and Finland: 🌚

  • @anatolyrozhkov3009
    @anatolyrozhkov3009Ай бұрын

    Fun fact: the high-raise in the background just above the channel 13:49 is the largest building in Kaliningrad Region and it was meant for the city administration. It's been siting abandoned for over 30 years cos the Russian government can't find money to complete it.This alone speaks volumes about the state of affairs in the country that is trying to take on the entirety of Western Europe and North America. Putin is just stark mad.

  • @liquidgoose1518

    @liquidgoose1518

    Ай бұрын

    Yeah they also demolished ruins of Konigsberg castle to build this abomination, USSR was great

  • @joyaroy8532

    @joyaroy8532

    Ай бұрын

    Never looked mad to any of us in the global South, certainly not as crazy as some US presses or as lying, conniving and delusional as British PMs. There is no leader as cogent, well-read in law and history, and logical in his or her assessment of what needs to be done for his/her own country and world peace.

  • @Blackadder75

    @Blackadder75

    Ай бұрын

    that thing? lol my city has buildings for higher education bigger than that, and we are not exactly a nation known for its skyscrapers....

  • @nikitadovidchenko6336

    @nikitadovidchenko6336

    15 күн бұрын

    That building doesn't exists anymore.

  • @Niinsa62
    @Niinsa62Ай бұрын

    The NATO members aren't really required to spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense. It is just a suggestion, or guideline. It is not as if you haven't paid your insurance invoice, if something bad happens. You are still guaranteed protection from the other NATO members. However, most NATO members in the East of Europe exceed 2 percent, so not really an issue there.

  • @seneca983

    @seneca983

    Ай бұрын

    "It is just a suggestion" It's not a mere suggestion. After the 2014 Wales Summit, NATO countries formally *committed* to spending at least 2% of GDP on their militaries. Before that, it had been an informal guideline.

  • @birdstwin1186

    @birdstwin1186

    Ай бұрын

    Its a commitment that all countries agree to. So they are required. If you agree to something with your international partners and you dont follow through you are breaking the agreement and bringing down the allaince.

  • @mattpotter8725

    @mattpotter8725

    Ай бұрын

    @@seneca983 The individual member states committed to it because it was in their interest to do so which reinforces the point that it's not a requirement of membership. If it had been certain member states wouldn't have not been adhering to this requirement would they? This point is something US politicians on the right who aren't very interested in defending democracy trott out to bolster their nationalistic stances. I even believed this form until I watched a video on here, I forget which channel, it may have been Perun, not long ago that just blows this much repeated statistic out of the water, mainly because it relies on the nuance of what value of GDP you take and from when. TLDF - basically it's not true for nearly every NATO member.

  • @seneca983

    @seneca983

    Ай бұрын

    @@mattpotter8725 "it's not a requirement of membership" It's not a requirement for membership but it's more than just an informal guideline (since 2014). It's a formal commitment (even if there's no punishment for breaking it).

  • @mattpotter8725

    @mattpotter8725

    Ай бұрын

    @@seneca983 A formal commitment with no punishment for not committing is an oxymoron. In effect it means it's an expectation but not worth the paper it's written on or with even discussing. The reason the US brings this up is because it spends a hell of a lot on its military to protect its position as the world's economic powerhouse and because it has a lot of jobs and money tied up in politics that requires it to do so. If the US stops spending so much on its military to project power around the world then China will step in to fill the void, as it already is in some places in the world, like Africa and even parts of Eastern Europe. We've been here before when the US took a step back and became more isolationist and in the end it had to step in because otherwise it would have started to affect its economic position in the world. As I also said this whole argument that some members of NATO are massively not paying their way had been debunked. Yes, some nations spend more than others, but not by a huge amount, and in the cases where this is the case there are valid reasons for it.

  • @danielxie852
    @danielxie852Ай бұрын

    Did anyone in comments section watch the whole video? He literally said that the joining of sweden and finland effectively nullified Russia's grip on the baltics 😂😂😂

  • @treefarm3288

    @treefarm3288

    18 күн бұрын

    I did. 1.5 speed helps.

  • @gatb4387
    @gatb4387Ай бұрын

    "Putin swears he won't invade Poland or Latvia" Yeah right, and what was Putler saying days before invading Ukraine?

  • @binagatramedia6258

    @binagatramedia6258

    Ай бұрын

    Putin is a wanker, and he knows it.

  • @conveyor2

    @conveyor2

    Ай бұрын

    Fun fact: The USA hasn't officially declared war anywhere since 1941.

  • @gatb4387

    @gatb4387

    Ай бұрын

    @@conveyor2 What does that have to do with my comment. You bots and shills have to start doing a better job.

  • @andyodels

    @andyodels

    15 күн бұрын

    ..."won't invade Poland or Latvia." No mention of excluding Lithuania.

  • @ItsJoKeZ
    @ItsJoKeZАй бұрын

    stop saying "NATO EXPANDED" - NATO ADDED A NEW MEMBER WHO WILLINGLY WENT THROUGH THE PROCESS AND JOINED. NATO DOES NOT "EXPAND" as if it as taking territory. It *ADDS MEMBERS*

  • @Bubajumba

    @Bubajumba

    Ай бұрын

    What the hack dude, expand do not mean you are forcefully adding territory or taking territory as you say, it simply mean nato is getting bigger, which is true.

  • @Jvanschalkwyk1

    @Jvanschalkwyk1

    Ай бұрын

    can russia join?

  • @Ikbeneengeit

    @Ikbeneengeit

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@Jvanschalkwyk1they were asked in the past to join. Then they showed their true colours.

  • @rastkobubic4009

    @rastkobubic4009

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@Ikbeneengeittalking about Nato

  • @tiapina7048

    @tiapina7048

    Ай бұрын

    @@Jvanschalkwyk1 To join NATO the asking country has to cover some requirement. Russia, right now (and already for a while), is walking away from such goals.

  • @SoloSailing77
    @SoloSailing77Ай бұрын

    One thing they should consider, is controlling entry into the Baltic Sea like Turkey does. No warships can enter the Baltic, unless it has a NATO flag!

  • @cunning-stunt

    @cunning-stunt

    17 күн бұрын

    NATO tried that and lost.

  • @renatob9909
    @renatob9909Ай бұрын

    NATO must be ready. Not a finger shall be laid on the Baltic countries.

  • @hasdagger1916

    @hasdagger1916

    Ай бұрын

    They took our buoys in Narva river and then blamed us Estonians. It was literally caught on video and officers were watching. such a dumb move

  • @einar8019

    @einar8019

    Ай бұрын

    i mean just look at last time they fought in navra(they got their ass handed to them)

  • @user-ek6lg3yb4b

    @user-ek6lg3yb4b

    19 күн бұрын

    Or else what😂😂😂

  • @renatob9909

    @renatob9909

    19 күн бұрын

    @@user-ek6lg3yb4b putin khuylo 🤡

  • @comlain2513

    @comlain2513

    15 күн бұрын

    stop glazing them

  • @waltervos9853
    @waltervos9853Ай бұрын

    How did Spetsnaz forces perform at Hostomel Airport in 2022?? How many air defence do the countries adjacent to Kaliningrad have? Attacking the Suwalkigap is the dumbest thing the Evil Empire can do. This would mean direct conflict with NATO, with a strangling economic blockade in response.

  • @cabanford
    @cabanfordАй бұрын

    Russia will have to walk, as they have no armor or BMPs left.

  • @andrewfesiak37
    @andrewfesiak37Ай бұрын

    Of course it makes TOTAL sense that Russia is moving military equipment OUT of Kaliningrad. They're not at all worried that NATO will invade them but they are losing the war to Ukraine and are running out of weapons. They also moved weapons from the Finish border to Ukraine AFTER Finland joined NATO.

  • @darkopavlic6592

    @darkopavlic6592

    Ай бұрын

    how much cia pay for that bull.... ukronazi have 750000 dead and 1,5 million wounded and move forward to the west. cocainsky clovn and westmongers are on the knes

  • @gintasvilkelis2544

    @gintasvilkelis2544

    Ай бұрын

    Yes, Russia's actions reveal what Russia actually think (as opposed to what they say).

  • @X-jn87ybt

    @X-jn87ybt

    Ай бұрын

    NATO is a No Action Talk Only alliance against a power like Russia and NATO won't dare to invade Russia. So Russia can be at peace.

  • @hb9145

    @hb9145

    Ай бұрын

    It is the same in Norway. The border is almost empty on the Russian side.

  • @lukebruce5234

    @lukebruce5234

    Ай бұрын

    Russia is losing the war in Ukraine hahaha

  • @nancyschiller7043
    @nancyschiller7043Ай бұрын

    Thanks for your work ❤

  • @nancyschiller7043
    @nancyschiller7043Ай бұрын

    Thank you for your hard work to gives us new ideas and news

  • @alanbrown9178
    @alanbrown9178Ай бұрын

    Russia also said it had "no intention of invading ukraine"..... What is a Russian "promise" worth?

  • @cpamfly6858

    @cpamfly6858

    17 күн бұрын

    A russian promise is merely a tell.

  • @TheWebstaff

    @TheWebstaff

    17 күн бұрын

    "what is a Russian" promise" worth" = 😂😂😂

  • @outsider7658
    @outsider7658Ай бұрын

    I forgot to mention: Putler, should receive "The NATO Salesman of the Century Price": He have sincerely earned it, by turning both, since looong time neutral countries, to NATO members. In just a couple of years. Applause. from a Finn in Diaspora

  • @oneshothunter9877

    @oneshothunter9877

    Ай бұрын

    putin needs to be honoured as you said - top Recruiter for NATO. And do it officially, with ceremony and all 😁

  • @vladimirkravchenko1642

    @vladimirkravchenko1642

    Ай бұрын

    Finnland never was a neutral country. Finnland tried to genocide Russians, together with Germany and most of the Europe.

  • @eirikjontvedt773

    @eirikjontvedt773

    Ай бұрын

    @@oneshothunter9877 Ceremony is a prison cell in Hauge.

  • @TheAmericanAmerican

    @TheAmericanAmerican

    26 күн бұрын

    One day soon I will make the long journey to the Land of the Winter Warriors! Keep the saunas hot for me! :)

  • @beru58
    @beru589 күн бұрын

    About Åland: 1. By the Åland convention of 1856 Russia agreed not to militarise the Åland Islands, which was later confirmed by the Treaty of Paris. 2. The Åland convention of 1921 was signed on 20 October 1921 by Sweden, Finland, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Denmark, Poland, Estonia, and Latvia. So if Ålanders and Finland agree to militarize Åland, Russia has no say in the matter.

  • @olympic-realty
    @olympic-realty10 күн бұрын

    Good stuff. Very professional and polite style of narration. 👍

  • @Max-df3ut
    @Max-df3utАй бұрын

    Correction: Nato members are not required to hit the 2% military spending threshhold. It is only encouraged and not enforced if not met

  • @AllanLaal

    @AllanLaal

    Ай бұрын

    and all the frontline countries have long gone above that

  • @dg20120

    @dg20120

    29 күн бұрын

    If the small countries aren’t meeting the guideline, it’s not that big of a deal. A country like North Macedonia could spend 20% of its GDP on defense and still be little more than a speed bump to a Russian invasion. It’s more of a concern if Turkey, Germany, Italy, France or the U.K. isn’t meeting the spending guideline since they will be doing the heavy lifting along with the U.S. Even if Turkey wasn’t meeting the guideline, it’s still necessary to defend them to protect Greece, control access to the Black Sea and control Russian or Iranian expansion into Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

  • @Redmanticore

    @Redmanticore

    29 күн бұрын

    after trump is elected it will be enforced.

  • @BoboSLO1
    @BoboSLO1Ай бұрын

    Eu 2% spending in military would be 500 billion €

  • @t.n.h.ptheneohumanpatterna8334

    @t.n.h.ptheneohumanpatterna8334

    Ай бұрын

    That’s 1 third Russian entire gdp 😱

  • @friederich66

    @friederich66

    Ай бұрын

    Dthe usa spend more money than the next 12 coutries altogether. russias exoense is a joke. he relies on mas over quality. hoe else can you call 500.000 lossxy of personal? it is by far not the 3-day-war putin exoected. this military adventure will bleed out russia and throw it back 50 years, if not more, putin is the worst thing that ever could happen to that poor country

  • @danieljoseph6686

    @danieljoseph6686

    Ай бұрын

    They need to spend 3 percent to make up for lost time if they expect American help

  • @sloglas

    @sloglas

    Ай бұрын

    Ti pa v prvo linijo, da bo za Kosovce več prostora.

  • @adrien5834

    @adrien5834

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@danieljoseph6686 If the US can't honor their obligations under the NATO treaty, maybe they should simply leave NATO. There's no mention of spending targets in the treaty.

  • @brianfreeman8290
    @brianfreeman8290Ай бұрын

    This incisive analysis has gained a new subscriber.

  • @michaelowino228
    @michaelowino228Ай бұрын

    Good video.

  • @judyArsh
    @judyArshАй бұрын

    Finland joining Nato made the gap a side note. But so has Poland’s defence spending. Any attempt to strike west from Belarus would be met with a wall of Polish troops and crippling strikes from Finland.

  • @UhtredOfBamburgh

    @UhtredOfBamburgh

    Ай бұрын

    St. Petersburg is right on the border of Finland basically. One out of Russia's only 2 good cities would instantly be destroyed in a larger war. Russia is strategically and geographically very weak country. They can only invade small countries but talk like a superpower

  • @Redmanticore

    @Redmanticore

    29 күн бұрын

    getting modern antiship missiles from all directions in the gulf of finland adds a challenge to russian ships.

  • @Neo_Vandole

    @Neo_Vandole

    29 күн бұрын

    Not just Poland. Also Germany and France would stand there not to mention the US army.

  • @chinababysatn12

    @chinababysatn12

    28 күн бұрын

    @@UhtredOfBamburgh The army that once defeated Nazi Germany should not be underestimated

  • @UhtredOfBamburgh

    @UhtredOfBamburgh

    28 күн бұрын

    @@chinababysatn12 You mean Canada?

  • @lagrangewei
    @lagrangeweiАй бұрын

    there is alot of copium here. during the same time US has also been removing it SAM in west pacific, does that mean US is also failing? the truth is these system are not really effective against a saturation attack. and it would be wisely to group them up so they can have a chance to defeat an attack than to spread them out. the consolidation of SAM by both Russia and US is to be expected if they see the risk of a real war increasing. their offensive asset would be fire on day 1 anyway, there is no point to defend an emptied position.

  • @Akenfelds1
    @Akenfelds1Ай бұрын

    There's a theory that the threat to the Suwalki Gap is much less now that the Baltic Sea has become a NATO lake. Eight navies and air forces control the Baltic Sea now and, together, they'd be able to eradicate the Russian Baltic Fleet. That would open up the possibility of supplying the Baltics by sea. Although that's not as desirable as doing it via the Suwalki Gap, it does take away some of Russia's advantage if Putin did invade the gap. As said, Russia would have immense trouble supplying Kaliningrad via the Suwalki Gap because it would plunge into general warfare, and they've have zero chance of supplying Kaliningrad by sea. It wouldn't be too long before Kaliningrad would collapse and fall to anti-Putin separatists.

  • @olatedin
    @olatedinАй бұрын

    The Åland archipelago has been demilitarized since the treaty of Paris 1856, so it is not, as claimed in the video, a readily usable strategic military asset. The islanders, who speak swedish but are finnish citizens, are even extempt from military service.

  • @TheLumberjack1987
    @TheLumberjack1987Ай бұрын

    It makes actually perfect sense why Russia cares less about the defense of Kaliningrad. It's because Putin knows that NATO will never invade it anyways, because NATO never attacked and will never attack any Russian territories. And with all forces being pinned in Ukraine, Putin also knows that any attempt at closing the Suwalki gap is basically postponed to whenever.

  • @wolfgangpagel6989
    @wolfgangpagel6989Ай бұрын

    Kaliningrad Oblast is half of East Prussia, the city is Königsberg. Russia is not the motherland. And maybe Russia does not think that NATO will actively attack them on its territory.

  • @Chedring
    @ChedringАй бұрын

    It's important in non-war time. It's a supply port. But once a war breaks out, it just becomes a target that is nearly impossible to defend. So they have have a token defense but it's basically expected to fall very easily no matter how many assets are placed there. It's just too small.

  • @jocking3b510
    @jocking3b51017 күн бұрын

    That 36-60 hours takeover was probably calculated before 2022. Now it would be 36-60 years.

  • @vm5571
    @vm5571Ай бұрын

    Not conflict but war in Ukraine, dude

  • @PhantomO799

    @PhantomO799

    16 күн бұрын

    russia-Ukraine war

  • @RAYY_WILD

    @RAYY_WILD

    15 күн бұрын

    special military operation bro

  • @filipehe
    @filipeheАй бұрын

    Kind of strange you would put part of Ukraine marked as Russia

  • @aeriawindsor4722

    @aeriawindsor4722

    Ай бұрын

    Ask Zelinsky to liberate that occupied land then.

  • @pidu4588

    @pidu4588

    Ай бұрын

    They are marked in lighter color to mark occupied territories.

  • @rastkobubic4009

    @rastkobubic4009

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@pidu4588*liberated

  • @Ar1AnX1x

    @Ar1AnX1x

    Ай бұрын

    if you think OBF is some sort of Russian Stooge you haven't watched his content

  • @Robbie643

    @Robbie643

    Ай бұрын

    @@pidu4588You’re a Kremlin bot 🤖🤖🤖🤖

  • @ottoe4925
    @ottoe492527 күн бұрын

    Prior to the production of that (still very interesting) video, Germany has started to lockate a tank brigade up next in Lithuia. NATO won‘t leave the Baltic Staates to Russia. No way.

  • @nothintoshow
    @nothintoshow28 күн бұрын

    0:43 "They pull their forces out of Kaliningrad THAT DOESN"T MAKE ANY SENSE" meanwhile on screen in intelligence report "to backfill losses on Ukrainian front". Powerful analyses! Thank you!

  • @alanmoore2197
    @alanmoore2197Ай бұрын

    Putin hasn't got a clue what he is doing strategically - its all tactical scrambles in a panic to maintain some coverage over Ukraine - especially with F-16's coming. He knows NATO won't actually attack him in Kaliningrad - so there is limited downside directly to moving equipment. But if he moves too much equipment & personnel out its possible the locals may eventually rise up for independence. They see advanced countries all around them with much higher standards of living and know they could rapidly follow the same development as the ex Soviet Baltic states if unshackled from Russian control. That's probably his biggest risk of demilitarizing, but it couldn't happen overnight.

  • @liquidgoose1518

    @liquidgoose1518

    Ай бұрын

    Not likely. Kaliningrad is made up from migrants and a lot of them are ex-military or families of those that are in the military - they tend to be loyal - it is the most militarized region in Russia. There is a small minority of people in Kaliningrad that supports independence (mostly young adults), but we must remember that the population of Kaliningrad consists of ethnic Russians and migrants from other regions and countries, such as Uzbekistan. Its not Chechnia or Tatarstan where there is a distinct ethnic majority that would benefit from independence, Kaliningrad and people living there do not have any distinct identity other than being Russian citizens.

  • @alanmoore2197

    @alanmoore2197

    Ай бұрын

    @@liquidgoose1518 Its a challenge to understand. But there are polls suggesting >50% support for Independence (inherently difficult to poll and understand results in Russian controlled territories). As an exclave surrounded by EU countries the citizens still have better access to western media, had easy travel allowing a direct comparison of standards of living. Kaliningrad residents have anyway long felt they get the short end of the stick wrt economic support even within Russia. These things gradually take a toll on ones belief in the 'system'. If the military is then hollowed out by drains to Ukraine (equipment & personnel) then the balance shifts further (less direct investment, fewer short term Russians on military assignments). Quite a lot of the early migrants to Kaliningrad were actually Ukrainian. So losing people to a war in Ukraine doubly brings the raw costs of supporting the 'system' home. Again it doesn't happen overnight, but there is a shift underway, and Kaliningrad is now more isolated than ever before.

  • @richardcoppack5357

    @richardcoppack5357

    Ай бұрын

    I agree. Putin is strategically very poor. His actions have massively strengthened NATO.

  • @DC9848
    @DC9848Ай бұрын

    Let's call what it is: Königsberg. Not Kalingrad.

  • @Masquerade456

    @Masquerade456

    26 күн бұрын

    Official maps and Germans who ran away laughing at you be like:

  • @DC9848

    @DC9848

    26 күн бұрын

    @@Masquerade456 the speed russians are able to destroy beautiful regions (Finnish Karjala) and cities (Königsberg, baltic capitals like Riga) with total neglect is as fast as it is saddening.

  • @CadeIsSleepy

    @CadeIsSleepy

    23 күн бұрын

    A lot of the Russians that live there call it Königsberg and want independence

  • @Kerguelen.Mapping
    @Kerguelen.MappingАй бұрын

    nice i saw your comment on a video from 7 years ago

  • @t.n.h.ptheneohumanpatterna8334

    @t.n.h.ptheneohumanpatterna8334

    Ай бұрын

    What video was it

  • @Kerguelen.Mapping

    @Kerguelen.Mapping

    Ай бұрын

    @@t.n.h.ptheneohumanpatterna8334 a video combining Kevin MacLeod songs and the video is just un flag waving

  • @RemoteAntidote
    @RemoteAntidoteАй бұрын

    Correction, the 2% GDP military spending is NOT a requirement, but a guideline/recommendation Åland is self governing and is demilitarized

  • @woahhbro2906
    @woahhbro2906Ай бұрын

    Ignorant American here, but has NATO considered consulting with the Hearts of Iron 4 playerbase on strategy?

  • @anatolyrozhkov3009

    @anatolyrozhkov3009

    Ай бұрын

    Considering that the Russian military decides how to proceed using the random numbers generator app, your suggestion actually sounds brilliant.

  • @alkem8272

    @alkem8272

    Ай бұрын

    EXACTLY, THIS GUY GETS IT.

  • @Ducky_andi
    @Ducky_andiАй бұрын

    nice vid :)

  • @Erik101
    @Erik10128 күн бұрын

    The watch goes forward making "tic-tac" while russian army goes backwards and called that tac-tics".

  • @artfx9
    @artfx9Ай бұрын

    Koenigsberg will be a welcome member into EU, once they are free.

  • @yaroslavkobezskyi

    @yaroslavkobezskyi

    Ай бұрын

    No way. Land full of rats 🐀 affecting eu decisions

  • @almacnaughton3688
    @almacnaughton3688Ай бұрын

    Very interesting! It is especially interesting to see how badly Putin misjudged NATO and neighboring countries' responses the invasion of Ukraine. The fact that Putin could be thinking if he made Kaliningrad less of a threat countries in the Baltic would stop viewing him as a threat. 😅

  • @ettoreatalan8303

    @ettoreatalan8303

    Ай бұрын

    NATO's appeasement policy towards Russia took its toll.

  • @williambunting803
    @williambunting803Ай бұрын

    The nature of the Drone War in Ukraine has demonstrated that the type of military structure in Kaliningrad is out of date, and more liability than asset. Most of the above ground facility could be destroyed in a matter of hours by custom designed drones. Coupled with the strategic changes to Russian access to the Baltic Sea Kaliningrad is no longer a conventional strategic asset for Russia. It’s important for the west to investigate how Russia can convert Kaliningrad into an “Unconventional “Strategic asset. The recent disruption to GPS in Poland might be a clue. There is certainly considerable underground Russian infrastructure in Kaliningrad which can be redeployed for political disruption, spying, electronic interference, etc. The West should play Putin’s game and headlong work on pulling Belarus away from Putin.

  • @X-jn87ybt

    @X-jn87ybt

    Ай бұрын

    Hungary, Slovakia, turkey and counting

  • @PeteThe
    @PeteThe18 күн бұрын

    Very detailed video report.

  • @rolfmyself6695
    @rolfmyself669528 күн бұрын

    Putin the day before the invasion: We are not going to invade anyone! Puting in 2024: We have no plans to attack any other countries! Everyone with a braincell: Yeah, SURE!

  • @larsp5109
    @larsp5109Ай бұрын

    5:09 ‘RuSSia’s State of the art Air defense system’: yeah, right, that’s why they’ve blown to smithereens on numerous occasions by Western Storm Shadow, Scalp, Himars missiles and so on…

  • @williamkarbala5718
    @williamkarbala5718Ай бұрын

    They also told us Kiev would fall in two days. I’m really not worried.

  • @bexultanassanov1930

    @bexultanassanov1930

    Ай бұрын

    That was a scenario where no other side would intervene

  • @adrien5834

    @adrien5834

    Ай бұрын

    @@bexultanassanov1930 No other side intervened. The Ukrainians clobbered the Russian Army by themselves.

  • @bexultanassanov1930

    @bexultanassanov1930

    Ай бұрын

    @@adrien5834 then where did Ukrainians get javelins tanks antiair systems and where is US sending their billions to?

  • @Scott-by9ks
    @Scott-by9ks24 күн бұрын

    For all those who may not know, I want you to pause at exactly 11:27 and look over the Pentagon. All of those white dots in the fields behind the Pentagon are Graves inside Arlington National Cemetery. The video doesn't show the whole cemetery, but each one of those white dots is a service members grave. I encourage you to visit our nation's capital and take a tour of Arlington National Cemetery. It might understand the magnitude of the cost of freedom and the price many Americans are willing to pay to maintain it.

  • @Tr17oll
    @Tr17ollАй бұрын

    10:15 Germany has not increased funding for the army at all. It is just a media treatment, but realistically they do not modernise the army and cannot send divisions to defence exercises in the Baltics.

  • @klausberfelde-je2ye
    @klausberfelde-je2yeАй бұрын

    I guess, after Russia lost the ukrainian war Kaliningrad should become a second Lichtenstein or the choice to witch EU member state they want to attach.

  • @hasdagger1916

    @hasdagger1916

    Ай бұрын

    The native Prussians are long gone. Only the orcs remain and we do not want them into the EU

  • @nikitadovidchenko6336

    @nikitadovidchenko6336

    15 күн бұрын

    What makes you think Russia will lose that conflict?

  • @klausberfelde-je2ye

    @klausberfelde-je2ye

    15 күн бұрын

    ​@@nikitadovidchenko6336 it´s going to become a second 1989 for Russia... as Biden has said. Boiling the Frog (economically). I don´t like this approach, because it costs much more casulties on both sides... but that´s what will happen and is happening now.

  • @hasdagger1916

    @hasdagger1916

    15 күн бұрын

    @@nikitadovidchenko6336 russia is tired, Ukraine is tired. But in the end Ukraine has more motivation to fight for its freedom against the agressor and will not give up.

  • @nikitadovidchenko6336

    @nikitadovidchenko6336

    14 күн бұрын

    @@hasdagger1916 i'm not sure about Russia being tired and not sure about Ukraine motivation atm.

  • @scottfranco1962
    @scottfranco1962Ай бұрын

    Simplest explanation is the best. That equipment is needed in Ukraine. Russia talks a lot, but doesn't really believe NATO is a threat to Russia. A threat to their ambitions, yes, but not for a direct attack.

  • @InquisitiveSearcher
    @InquisitiveSearcher21 күн бұрын

    Plus there is the fact that a census/poll was taken that found that a large portion of the population of Kaliningrad would like to be free of Russia and be much more associated with western Europe. That's got to figure into it at least a little bit.

  • @Lalramkumhlunsitlhou25030
    @Lalramkumhlunsitlhou25030Ай бұрын

    Actually the reason is "No one will dare attack the Oblast because Russia could respond with a nuclear Attack... So no need to defend it as long as the surrounding nations are aware of the nukes"

  • @dennisyoung4631
    @dennisyoung4631Ай бұрын

    Is Ruzzia running low on military supplies in Ukraine? That *might* explain matters.

  • @WeejimmySnazberry

    @WeejimmySnazberry

    Ай бұрын

    The war is depleting tanks faster than they can be made, another round of mobilisation may be on the way. Crime suspects can now join the army to avoid trial. Everything is going to plan tho😂

  • @easy94883

    @easy94883

    Ай бұрын

    @@WeejimmySnazberry Everything you said literally only applies to Ukraine at the moment lmao

  • @WeejimmySnazberry

    @WeejimmySnazberry

    Ай бұрын

    @@easy94883 No it doesn't, Ukraine is allowing convicts to fight but with a sentence reduction. Russia in the other hand is in trouble, if you follow joe blogs for some insight into what's going on behind the curtains, you will understand.

  • @michaeltheundeadmariachi4494

    @michaeltheundeadmariachi4494

    2 күн бұрын

    ​@@easy94883if that's the case, Russia wouldn't have any need to withdraw military assets from Kaliningrad and areas bordering Poland and the Baltic countries, and yet, Russia is doing just that.

  • @mikoajbadzielewski3396
    @mikoajbadzielewski339629 күн бұрын

    But Królewiec is Czech

  • @joejankoski8471
    @joejankoski8471Ай бұрын

    Curious if the decision to draw but not label Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina was deliberate or due to the size of the names relative to the space on the map @ 5:24? Montenegro is labeled fully with a territory smaller in scale. It could have been possible to use either their 2 letter code (SI, BA) or their 3 letter code (SVN, BIH).

  • @tonymckeage1028
    @tonymckeage1028Ай бұрын

    Great Video, I personally believe Kaliningrad is a very important outpost for Russia, it's the only 4 season base for the Baltic Fleet, which has become more important since Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, I also understand a large portion of its population prefer independence from Russia, Putin is very sensitive to any civilian or Military changes by any of the Baltic neighbours! Thanks for sharing

  • @gregash7683
    @gregash7683Ай бұрын

    Kaliningrad is NOT West Berlin, nobody escapes to Kaliningrad and the current residents are not as politically blind and indifferent as the rest of the empire. I suspect the Kremlin fears an Afghanistan-like collapse in the enclave and doesn't want to lose the existing arms and resources to the west. By de-militarizing the enclave, Kaliningrad becomes a benign extension of Moscow and less a threat to NATO. As the Baltic Sea has become a de-facto NATO lake, The Gulf of Finland becomes a closed cul-de-sac, Saint Petersburg's Neva River backwaters. The fate of Saint Petersburg will become the same as Rostov-on-Don, resting in the Sea of Azov shallows, cut-off from extensive world commerce. What comes next? Kaliningrad is pruned and withers on the vine, Sevastopol falls to Ukraine and becomes NATO's Black Fleet headquarters, and Murmansk-on-the-Arctic lies ice bound half of the year - fed by a single rail line from Mother Russia. And then there is Belarus, the once potential extension of Kremlin lands, now an unproductive island cut-off on the west by NATO, on the south by Ukraine, and wholly dependent on a collapsing Russia on the east. When this plays out, a pro-Moscow Belarus is next to fall.

  • @geoffgill5334

    @geoffgill5334

    Ай бұрын

    Well said

  • @carterbentonjr399

    @carterbentonjr399

    29 күн бұрын

    Plus the people of Belarus are chaffing under Lusenko and would immediately rise up against him and Putin to boot.

  • @user-ro2ws2me1k

    @user-ro2ws2me1k

    28 күн бұрын

    Keep on dreaming ... btw, Murmansk is an ice-free port.

  • @gregash7683

    @gregash7683

    28 күн бұрын

    @@user-ro2ws2me1k Where did you learn your geography? Murmansk is located 12 km from the Arctic Ocean on a narrow fjord. It is the most ice-impacted port in Russia.

  • @TheAmericanAmerican

    @TheAmericanAmerican

    26 күн бұрын

    What's this? Logic and reason applied to geopolitics???

  • @steiraman1
    @steiraman1Ай бұрын

    NATO did not "expand". Sovereign countries in Central Europe and the Baltic region joined NATO.

  • @caterpilar

    @caterpilar

    29 күн бұрын

    yeah right

  • @robinmorritt7493

    @robinmorritt7493

    29 күн бұрын

    Sure. That makes as much sense as the video. 😏 The balloon is the same size it was before I blew it up. It's just got more air on the inside. 😉

  • @Fievelavie

    @Fievelavie

    26 күн бұрын

    If the Russian Terrorist Federation Leader says so..

  • @rmar127
    @rmar127Ай бұрын

    That 2015 report is useless now that Sweden and Finland are a part of NATO.

  • @merkeet
    @merkeetАй бұрын

    There are way more important issues than this; how about three letter organisations making treaties with our governments about our health, how about a two letter moloch pushing laws for our 'digital safety'. But hey, lets all stay divided and focussed on other things, that way it will be 1984 in a couple of years.

  • @maniek7660
    @maniek7660Ай бұрын

    The day after, if Russia had attacked NATO, NATO tanks would have entered Königsberg like home, 80 km away, the furthest point from the border. Königsberg, now Russia's weakness, not NATO, just look at the map.

  • @X-jn87ybt

    @X-jn87ybt

    Ай бұрын

    Russia is not Iraq bro maybe it's the other way around

  • @maniek7660

    @maniek7660

    Ай бұрын

    @@X-jn87ybt this is eazy way for military eazy way is the best .

  • @negorbat

    @negorbat

    12 күн бұрын

    kaliningrad dreamin about nato invasion and fleing out of russia reign

  • @flyingfox707b
    @flyingfox707b28 күн бұрын

    Królewiec is as Russian as Transnistria, Osetia and Abhazia.

  • @Anonymous36
    @Anonymous36Ай бұрын

    It's a question I never thought to ask

  • @KaiiWinter-nw4vi
    @KaiiWinter-nw4viАй бұрын

    Operational security over the entire Baltic Sea would be , uh , cool .