I watched this when was released. I was already in mpw but had doubts about it. Somehow you convinced me and bought lots more at lower price. Thank you for the analysis and encouragement.

Thanks! You’re one of the best! In 2019 MPW stock was $21 and total revenue was $870 million 2019 FFO was $1.30 2020 COVID was the reason for the tenant having trouble paying the rent but MPW finished 2020 with $1.27 Billion in revenue and $1.57 FFO and the stock was $21.61 2021 revenue was $1.57 Billion FFO was $1.75 The stock was $23 2022 revenue was $1.58 Billion (highest ever) FFO was $1.82 (highest ever) The stock was $11 2023 MPW sold a few buildings to pay down debt so revenue is expected to be $1.33 Billion and FFO is expected to be $1.57 per share The stock is currently $3.56 Does it sound like the actual business is in trouble? The difference between 2023 revenue and 2022 revenue (their highest ever)is $250 million The difference between 2022 & 2023 FFO is 25 cents! They’re still profitable

@ballngm64

7 ай бұрын

That’s why I bought some of it initially. However, from an accounting standpoint, revenue probably has to be reduced since its accounts receivables continue to grow and some of it maybe written off. I wonder what their valuation is if we cut out revenue received from Stewards. In the long run, once steward is out of the picture, MPW should be able to get back into growing phase. Who knows how long that will take though.

@Metal_Stacking

7 ай бұрын

Simple failure is way too large of a % in one tenant. They should never allow over 10% in a single tenant. Preferably 5-7% max.

@HughButler-lb6zs

7 ай бұрын

​@Metal_Stacking when I originally bought MPW that was a criticism. Steward was 20% of MPW's business. They were working on fixing that problem when covid hit Steward. MPW is working on reducing their exposure to Steward so we shall see.

An update video on MPW would be great

@Paulie44

5 ай бұрын

Agreed, MPW update video greatly appreciated 👍

My three favorite channels: FASTgraphs, Stock Brotha, & How Money Works. Make my week complete! 🔥 🔥 🔥

@holyhandgrenadeofantioch2019

6 ай бұрын

You say that about all the channels

Thank you. I've been around this block before, so when I considered your assessment of MPW I decided to pick up a couple of hundred shares at $5 two weeks ago. Monday was pretty much a shock, but having gone through these things, I've done nothing, but I have consider whether to abandon the position or add to it. This has helped me with some very good due diligence; solid information, thank you.

I started nibbling on skt around 14 and made a big buy at 4.38, and reinvesting the dividends. Incredible returns.

I also own MPW and when it dropped last year, I double down and bought more. Believing it will come back.🙏

Excellent video as always. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for this video. Am a long term holder of MPW. I very much value your insights and will be staying the course and dripping along the way.

Mr. Valuation, thanks for showing what true deep value investing is all about. However, although I'm not a multimillionaire, two things have saved my portfolio over time is selling dividend cutters, absorbing the loss, learning about tax loss harvesting, and investing in quality frequently. Just an average guy here who works hard for his money, speculation is not very appealing to me.

Thank you very much for the updated video on MPW! Just what I needed. Thank you as always!!🎉🎉🎉❤❤❤❤

Thank you very much, Chuck, for the update on MPW! The more research I do the more I see these things and agree with you. I just keep adding. I added even more a few minutes ago at $2.5 and it's become my SECOND biggest position just after AMZN! This is a once in a decade opportunity, for the appreciation AND for the dividend, which will come back to previous levels eventually and will be amazing when captured at these levels. Be greedy when others are fearful!

Thank you, Chuck. Great and very helpful video. I am still hanging on to MPW while slowly adding more shares, but I have to confess that I have thought of selling it off a few times.

Thanks, Chuck. Really appreciate this update as I didn't expect it and your perspective is extremely valuable to me. I am holding MPW long, my position is significantly larger than I first intended, but I haven't been able to ignore the drops and have been dca since 2021. I've been selling covered calls all along, to fund some of the additions. I hope the dividend doesn't get cut again, at least not more than a penny or two.

Just what I was looking for. Thanks!

Thank you for posting, Mr valuation. I am long MPW.

Thank you for the update, Chuck. I admire your candor with your subscribers and followers. Way to Man Up.

I have just added few shares to my MPW position. Thanks chucks.

Thanks Chuck, Great info.

Thank you for another wonderful, informative video. I bit on MPT a year ago, or so, and held but was tempted to cut my loss. Now, I will re-evaluate, and may take another position.

Nice work Chuck!

Thanks for this update!

Thank you very much chuck!

My prediction is they will cut the dividend again to save cash also their two large tenants who can’t pay rent at least one will go bankrupt. The only reason they haven’t so far is because MPW is giving them loans but they missed repayments that’s why the stock is down another 30%. I predict MPW will go much lower. I first got interested in this stock after Chuck’s first MPW video and I got out after it hit my trailing stop loss order. I’m glad I did because it’s gone down so much since then and I’ve been doing the opposite and shorting MPW by buying long puts when it was trading for a while in high $5 to $6 range. I’ve closed my original put trades will big profits but I will keep buying puts. I do see the stock going back to at least $4/share until they cut the dividend again then price will go down to the $2/share range. I don’t see the stock ever recovering to the expectation that Chuck has. He’s too optimistic and the opportunity cost on top of the unrealized losses is massive, this is what happens when you chase high yield and fall for value traps. I would avoid or just sell and do tax loss harvesting and move on. Don’t add to this losing position.

@FASTgraphs

7 ай бұрын

Time will tell

@mikeh.853

7 ай бұрын

@@Gabe.G_Live People with unnecessary multiple comments instead of one should not be allowed to comment. lol :) You know there's an edit button.

Great perspective Chuck , thank you

Thanks Chuck, I will take a shot on MPW. Can't ignore the 18.4% yield on July $4 calls either so i am selling some covered calls on this as well.

I definitely agree with you Chuck....My average is low, but it will be a little lower soon. I'm holding this for a few years unless something happens.

I'm concerned about the insiders not buying any shares. Why don't they buy shares if it was a bargain?

@andreaveres6285

7 ай бұрын

They are in a blackout period before reporting earnings and are not allowed to purchase the stock.

@brunogoncalves4948

7 ай бұрын

they might not be able to. maybe they have a trading window and can only buy in that time

@szlaszlozoltan

7 ай бұрын

​@@andreaveres6285Thanks, but the last insider buy was 2 years ago or so wasn't it?

@szlaszlozoltan

7 ай бұрын

​@@brunogoncalves4948Or they're paid (partially?) with shares, or...?

@tomfitz1546

7 ай бұрын

They did just exercise stock options totaling 600k shares

Chuck, I thank you for your honesty.

I also sit on more as -70 percent MPW in my portfolio. But the approach can not be to add more the of same loser again. The better approach would be to diversify or at least diversify in the same asset class. Since MPW went down I added VICI and MAA. Thanks by the way for the last video which includes MAA

Compelling debate and great argument.

Thank you for this informative update on a much maligned REIT that is going through a rough patch.

WOW!!!! Thanks for this video

Thanks for the update :)

Thank you . I have been nibbling away on mpw asit goes down . nothing serious but your input helps with the confidance to hold and perhaps continue averaging down. And hopfully get paid just to wait!👍

Thanks for the update Chuck, as usual you've stated the fundamentals are still strong, even while going thru issues with hospital tenants, which aren't going out of business anytime soon. My wife & I both added to our holding yesterday & will probably add a little more as we work at bringing our dollar cost average down to a fantastic level. Thank you again!

@Mondknall

7 ай бұрын

"Averaging down" is just a nicer description for throwing good money after bad money. On a stock that lost 80+%, all capital market statistics work against you..

@Cap_management

7 ай бұрын

I see. Dollar cost averaging Meta in 2022 was throwing good money after bad money. Haha you made my day. MPW lost 80% in 2009 and than delivered 20% annual gains for 15 years. Another example of bad money? Try to use logic sometimes.@@Mondknall

@FASTgraphs

7 ай бұрын

@@Mondknall only if the fundamentals are dropping to oblivion such as the PBI I showed in the video. If fundamentals dictate a higher price then averaging down is the right strategy

@s0.0s

7 ай бұрын

You would have been better off.

Thanks Chuck 👍👍

Great video!

I add also Monthly MPW Shares to my Depot. I buyed SKT in the Corona Crash at the perfect Bottom at 4$ and sold it by 16$. Time is KING

I dont think comparing Tanger and SPG to MPW makes sense. They are powerful businesses, with great leadership that got hit by a pandemic. MPW is where it is because of leadership, not in spite of it.

@Metal_Stacking

6 ай бұрын

Mpw was directly hit by the pandemic. And is being hit by the ongoing effects of the pandemics deficit spending.

I think this shows that investing is alot more than numbers. Fastgraphs is a great tool for the numbers portion.

@FASTgraphs

7 ай бұрын

FAST Graphs are a research tool to think with. We've always promoted it as the 1st step prior to a more comprehensive research and due diligence process. As Warren Buffett said and I paraphrase "investing without research is like playing poker without looking at the cards."

@Cap_management

6 ай бұрын

Short term yes. Its about emotions. Long term its only about numbers. As we can see with SPG and SKT.

Good timing and great advice

Some other companies going through weakness that I own are Scott’s Miracle Grow, VF Corporation, Walgreens and Stanley Black and Decker. Still own all of them but they had a tough 2022/2023 but I’m not taking a loss when I have full confidence they will recover with time… there are obviously scenarios where the stock won’t recover, but I don’t find that to be the case with the names I mentioned. Time will tell… great video Chuck!

@atmavictu2995

6 ай бұрын

that's some real bad choices you made there...why didn't you buy NVDIA or AMD.....you people are only buying Value Traps some old fools tell you are undervalued...in fact you own some of the worst stocks out there.

Thank you for your commentary Chuck. I'm long MPW in a big way and way underwater at the moment. Holding for the long term.

@Metal_Stacking

3 ай бұрын

Doing better now?

@Palmer_Life

3 ай бұрын

Yes. Much better but still have a ways to go.

The price may have changed since your first MPW video but your teaching has not.

@gordo3582

6 ай бұрын

Seems to ignore the fact that the company is insolvent. Too much debt, the costs of servicing the interest payments are unsustainably high relative to its income. Its debt load is currently in excess of $10 billion, or 122% of its equity. In 2026, it'll need to repay close to $3 billion in debt; it has only $340 million in cash on hand now, and its trailing-12-month net losses are $33 million. 😢 Good luck.

Seems like the tide is turning for MPW which is great news! Another MPW video please Chuck 😃👍

great video! would love to hear your thoughts on 3M. still seems to be a lot of pressure on them

I love your software also… greetings from Flensburg Germany Michael Weder

A lot of company's stock price have fallen the past year, for multiple reasons, so a video idea for the future would be to review those and show/explain the reasons for such drop and where the future lies: AAP, HAS, WHR, EL, VFC, FWRD, ENPH, YUMC, JD, FMC, etc.

You are so awesome!!!

Thank you for the update on MPW and discussion. I wonder what it means for me to be diversified. In the past, that meant not have too high a concentration in a specific industry and no more than 5% of my investments in one stock and not what I consider a risky stock. MPW was never more than 1% for me. When dropping, I do wonder if the % should be total money put in or value now. A while back I added more MPW, first figuring out what I was willing to risk and then buying half the willing to risk amount at 4.20. Kicked myself for not buying more when went back over 5 and was glad I limited to 1/2 amount to risk when lately drop to below 3.50. I think you are right on with the question to be asking - is the company a going concern and how much do we trust the management information and management skill. A different video may be helpful on what to do when stock goes up. I've tried selling part, but for me, doesn't seem to fit my temperament - if the stock continues to go up, question why I sold some and if goes down, question why when I lack confidence, I didn't sell all. A recent example is CRWD - Crowdstrike - near the end of 2023 I had doubled my money in 10 months and had some extra other short-term losses I could offset so sold. The PE ratio was above 90 which made me nervous. So I sold. As frequently happens, continuing to quickly go up. Would I buy again at the original sale price - no. Would I buy again at higher current price - no. So wonder why I question my nerve for selling. Hmmmm.

@davebean2886

7 ай бұрын

Also noticed today that 4 officers of MPW may have sold what seems like quite a few share. So holding on to the other have of my additional risk capital for a little while. Can any one else put perspective on on the stock sales. Sometimes what seems like a lot to me, really is not that much for them.

@scottwilly86

7 ай бұрын

@@davebean2886 where did you see that? I'm searching and can't find any info

@asag1225

7 ай бұрын

​@davebean2886 read the footnotes on the disclosures. It stated those did not constitute employee sales and were sold off to cover the taxes. The employees probably selected the option a while ago to have taxes taken out automatically.

@davebean2886

7 ай бұрын

@@asag1225 Thanks for the info.

I stay tuned, all the best for you from europe

Super helpful as many of us grow our education and experience. Please keep these updates coming as you see fit. Perhaps you could do one after earnings which is on 2/22 before market open. Thank you!

Thanks Chuck! You can also get 12% yielding bonds with a call date of 2031

Thanks

Hi 👋 Thanks for this video

To folks without money to average down. You can turn on drip, and dividends are reinvested by buying shares with no fees.

i did roth conversions with my ira holding. i will buy some back. small amount but a good possibility here.

The debt prioblem is really bad with MPW debt. Bankruptcy risk is real.

Could you do a video on how mortgage backed reits work and how to value them

What do you think about the possibility of them buying back their 2030/31 bonds at 60 cents for the dollar and therefore refinancing the 25/26 debt? Shouldnt that be a good way out of the debt drama?

I don't disagree with your thesis, but I think refinancing is also a significant risk going forward. If the costs of capital rises significantly on refinancing it's debt that will result in another squeeze on the ffo.

@FASTgraphs

6 ай бұрын

No one denies the speculative nature of investing in MPW

I'm with you Chuck. Been adding and being optimistic. Thanks for the double content today!

My son is a HS sophomore. His college fund is slightly underfunded right now. I view MPW as a broken stock not a broken company. This price collapse is the opportunity I need to get his college fund to the level it needs to be in 2.5 years when he enters college. Hell, if it quadruple's in the next 6 years like Chuck mentioned as a possibility, the account can go from underfunded to overfunded. Long MPW

@richj011

7 ай бұрын

Be careful

@michaelfolino2312

7 ай бұрын

Oh I will. Not saying I'm throwing all the college fund into mpw but I am going from current 3% to 7/8% of the portfolio. I think the possible reward is worth the risk.

Hello Chuck. Kindly do a video on showing us the BASIC vs PREMIUM version of FASTgraphs. Many Thanks!

@FASTgraphs

7 ай бұрын

docs.fastgraphs.com/docs/what-are-the-main-differences-between-basic-and-premium

$500 shares of $MPW. Now with your video I will be buying more

B rating from S&P, the market appears to reflect concerns about the company's creditworthiness. High probability of failure ? It would had been useful to address MPW's debt situation, structure and maturity, as this likely plays a role in shaping the current stock price.

@laciepyu255

6 ай бұрын

"High probability of failure ?" No, a rating of "B" implies a default probability of 12.41% according to S&P, and MPW is rated B+

@FASTgraphs

6 ай бұрын

I don't see failure I just see a need to solve a significant value. Debt financing is what REITs do when they invest in real estate

"you could tripple your money" "it is all priced in" "attractive right now" how often did we hear this now? A company which is reliable and doing fine does not need to cut their dividend. And also why are no insiders buying the company?

@FASTgraphs

7 ай бұрын

No one alleges the company does not have problems, that is most often of value is created.

How big is your position percentage wise?

Damn!! Mr. Valuation’s conviction has not changed on MPW 👍🙌🏾💪🏾🇺🇸👊🏽👏🏿🔥❤️🙏

I usually agree with you Chuck but MPW is gave me a bad feeling couple of times. I will maybe add a small position (max 0.5% of the entire portfolio) just to not miss it out but I was about to invest at $9 and at $6 and both times the management scared me away. This Steward problem and the strange investments / financial support by MPW is something I just don't get!

I am a firm believer in you and FG. However, i am not sure the people running MPW are being entirely forthcoming with the data they are providing. Arent u ultimately dependent upon that?

@FASTgraphs

7 ай бұрын

If you believe that to be true, then you should not invest. I am a firm believer that investors should invest according to their own goals, objectives, risk tolerances, and beliefs. With that said, you should have confidence in any company you invest in, if you don't then you should not invest with them. Regards, Chuck

Will try to reach 10 000 shares this year.

@mikeh.853

7 ай бұрын

I have 7000 with WAY too high average :( Started by selling cash covered Puts at $21 strike thinking I was getting a great deal...lol. Shares assigned and been averaging down ever since. Never thought it would get this ugly. The problem I'm discovering is IF fundamentals go sour, that's obviously a LAGGING indicator, so by the time the fundamentals are assessed to be deteriorating beyond repair, you've already lost 70-80% or more! Seems to me you have to be an expert at reading between the lines.

@Klausi666

7 ай бұрын

@@mikeh.853 just wait it will recover

The most important thing that no one has yet said is that the shorts have to buyback all of their shares while I already own mine.

@Alex-Music639

6 ай бұрын

Why? They might just short the stock straight to annihilation?!

@glennshoemake4200

6 ай бұрын

@@Alex-Music639 Unless there is fraud involved (like Enron) which is highly doubtful since the accounting rules are more strict, they may keep shorting up until quarterly results, but any hint of good news will be a disaster as they would be forced to cover their shorted shares.

Hi Chuck and Colton, have you ever considered doing more collaboration videos? The cyclical investor's club channel uses FastGraphs extensively in his videos. Maybe doing a collaboration with him would be a good fit since it highlights/promotes ways to use FastGraphs?

Thank you for the Update on MPW !

I.read both books Peter Lynch wrote, and his success was attributed to him going out and looking at the business. I recently visited a medical clinic and hospital in Little Rock , Ark and found both businesses had full parking lots. So the business has demand for its services, so other things were the problem. It seems getting paid for those services was the main culprit, which is a fixable problem. The question remains if that problem will be solved, but it can be. Our demographics is aging, so demand for clinic and hospital services will only increase going forward. They just need to solve the payment problems. I am a buyer of MPW but am watching them cloesly.

50 years. I’m working on starting my KZread channel. Can I interview you? 50 years. That’s excellent

I have a question for you, Chuck, or even a video idea.. I own mpw @5.12 and think the price of this company will turn around in the coming years, and I'm happy with my average price. What does 1 do if the stock price goes up to $18 with a dividend of $0.90 per annum You can't sell surely with a yeld like that, plus what do you do with the dividend?? Buy stock or buy other stocks 🤔 I've never been in this potential position. So, I would like to hear your thoughts on this type of problem ppl could potentially face in this stock and others out there. Thanks

I AM IN MPW now. eheheh. easy composure.

Thanks Chuck for this part B! What's your fair price for MPW? Around 7$?

@FASTgraphs

7 ай бұрын

I pointed to fair value in the video

What about their debt convenants? THAT is the biggest problem where nobody seems to have a deep understanding about…

WHEN ITS 1 DOLLAR WILL YOU SAY THE SAME THING?

@FASTgraphs

6 ай бұрын

If the fundamentals do not change my opinion will change I could care less about price, price lies. Like Buffett said if the market were always efficient I would be a bum in the street with a tin can begging for coins.

What about SOFI. My software says it’s Triple B Rated

Thank you my Master!

You have a lifetime call on this stock for $3.56. Not bad.

Great video. I bought a lot of SKT (all the way from $8/9 to $3) in 2020. It looks fantastic now. Same story with SPG but to a lesser degree. So happy to have had the courage to take that risk in 2020. MPW I added at $2.98 yesterday. Started at $11 and kept adding to the position. At this point I feel tempted to add more MPW below $3… but here is the issue. Hearing to Aldag Jr on the last 8 or 9 quarterly calls, and I have heard the quarterly calls several times, MPW management and specially Aldag has totally lost credibility. Other than that the story is great. If Aldag goes, I buy more.

I'm selling 1 and 2 dollar puts on mpw

Thanks for the video. I've been contemplating what to do with MPW. I have 500 shares at a 5.00 cost basis. Explaining the recent loss to the wife wasn't fun but it's just an unrealized loss.

@alext1723

7 ай бұрын

Just use the next dividend to offer her something nice. That will smooth things out :)

@yaykruser

7 ай бұрын

500shares at 10$ average buy in here :/

@Mondknall

7 ай бұрын

It will be a realized loss at some point. The market is not always right, but sometimes it is. You guys are at a point where you are praying for another outcome and as an investor should never be in that position.

@Cap_management

6 ай бұрын

Did you ever see Chuck praying in his video? Since when is focusing on fundamentals praying?@@Mondknall

@Mondknall

6 ай бұрын

@@Cap_management For Chuck I don't worry, he knows what he is doing. Is just doubt many of his followers do. And the fundamentals are already deteriorating, as is the stock. And no change of that in sight.

I would wait for some good news and growing analyst forecasts before adding more to the position. No point in buying more if the fundamentals don't have a more positive outlook, because why would the stock price grow?

@FASTgraphs

7 ай бұрын

Here is a video that talked about good news for real estate and MPW specifically for this coming year perhaps starting in May: kzread.info/dash/bejne/iWaVzsOnoLannM4.html

Stewart hospitals are struggling. If Stewart is 70% of their tenant, that is reason for concern.

@stevenoverton6329

7 ай бұрын

Steward is 23 percent of mpw revenue. 15:47

@puppypuppy1448

7 ай бұрын

It’s Steward. Not “Stewart.”

@nancysid

7 ай бұрын

can't tell you how many times i've said that in my lifetime. my last name is steward.

I’ve looked at probably a hundred real estate investments over the decades, and have never invested in one. It is simply outside my circle of competence, and a game best played by others.

Not bad Chuck, I will continue to hold and stick with my original plan. I knew this reit would be a volatile but actually witnessing and seeing the losses is another story. I have over 17,000 shares with an average cost of $4.40. Do you have any insight on if Steward could potentially get some government help? Do you think MPW could get government help if they really get into more trouble?

@zooltpool8204

6 ай бұрын

That's exactly what I want to know 👍👍

@FASTgraphs

6 ай бұрын

That would be pure speculation. I am basing my position on the facts as they currently exist. The speculation that is on the table is what is the purpose of the lawyers and advisers they have hired in an attempt to collect the past due rent?

I have to ask a concerning question once again. Could MPW go to 0? It’s hard hanging in there. Sorry to bother you!🤔

Have you added then Chuck ? I have, ive been averaging down im on at 5

@FASTgraphs

6 ай бұрын

Waiting till the next earnings report, no reason to be in a hurry. It's always better to act on factual information.

I'm still holding but was wondering about adding more.

@FASTgraphs

6 ай бұрын

I would wait to see the next financial report

Should we be concern with a reverse stock split?

@RabianskiT

7 ай бұрын

I don’t think so. Unless more devastating news hits and the stock falls below $2…

Reminds me of geo group.

Steward health took mpw's loan and payed it out to board members instead of using it to grow the buisness, if steward fails or defaults mpw is going to be left holding the bag, why i dont mind that is because the bag is more valuable than the loan, so mpw would benefit more from steward's collapse than their success, either way its a good deal

Okay, that might all be true from a value and data perspective but the management did not acknowledge the growing worries in the market and should have been acting more forcefully. Just my layman's understanding: I think they wanted to please everyone (tenants, shareholders, employees) by providing an outlook that was just too positive and didn't explicitly mention a worst case scenario and what they would do then. Hope they will just cut the dividend totally, as a shareholder I think that is the best way to spend our money. Pay off debt with high interest first.

@Cap_management

7 ай бұрын

Did you listen to their earnings calls or you just talk nonsence?

@sharpmz

7 ай бұрын

@@Cap_management yes I did listened to all earnings calls since two years. Follow them pretty closely and also have a significant sum invested. Please specify what is wrong in my statement.

@scottwilly86

7 ай бұрын

as a REIT are they even legally allowed to cut the dividend out?

@sharpmz

7 ай бұрын

@@scottwilly86 from what I've understood paying off debt is an expense and the 90% rule applies for income after expenses.