What Is The 4% Rule? How Much Money Do I Need To Retire?

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In this video, I want to explain the 4% rule. This is also known as the Safe Withdrawal Rate - or basically the rate at which you can spend your money without ever running out of money.
An easy way to calculate what this means for you - and how much money you’ll need to retire is by flipping it around and multiplying your yearly expenses by 25.
For example, if you and your family spend $40,000 per year, you’ll need to have 1,000,000 invested to not run out of money.
There must be some limit to how long you can withdraw 4% and still have money left over, right? The study that explains the 4% rule is called the Trinity Study, and it looked at how much money you’d need to retire for every year between 1926 and 2009.
The study found that if you invest 50% of your money in stocks and 50% of your money in bonds, withdrawing 4% of your money will be fine for 25 years, 100% of the time. Doing it for 30 years - you’ll still have money left over 96% of the time. only if you retired in a very unlucky year and never made any money after retirement including pensions or social security - the 4% rule didn’t work.
So to make sure we’re all clear - the 4% rule isn’t 100% foolproof. But those odds are pretty darn good - and even while I hope to retire from regular work longer than 30 years - i know I’ll continue to make money doing things i love which will make sure that the 4% rule does succeed.
For those of you that want to be 100% sure your money will never run out (especially for those of you who plan to retire longer than 30 years), use the 3% rule and only withdraw 3% of your investments per year.
Let’s get back to the 4% rule and dive a little deeper.
As many of you are probably asking, why is 4% the safe number and not 10% or 2%.
Very simply, investing money will pay you dividends and increase in value at an average rate of 7% per year. On average inflation is about 3%, basically decreasing the actual value of the money you have. Combine those two numbers, and you’re a 4% - your net income will increase by 4% each year. And if you spend that 4% without going over, you’ll end the year with the same amount that you’ve started… in perpetuity.
Okay okay - i know a lot of you say this is crazy - what about the recession - you can’t predict stocks - and lots more thoughts.
But let’s look at those numbers even deeper.
Since 1900… over one hundred years ago, the average return per year has been 7% including reinvested dividends (meaning you reinvest the dividends - or the money the companies pay your for investing - into your investment).
For inflation - since 1913 - over one hundred years ago, the average yearly inflation is 3.22%
Even through the great depression, world wars, crazy years of inflation, more wars, and the great recession the average return rate has been 7% and inflation has been just over 3%
What does this tell us? It tells us that investing is more about being patient and investing early rather than trying to time the market.
Now this doesn’t mean that it can’t change. Investing is a risk. That’s why you do it and make money from it. But world war iii could happen. another even greater depression could happen. and we have to be prepared for something like that. because if you retired with 1,000,000 in 2007, assuming you’d be able to spend 4% of your net worth per year, you were in for a surprise - which might mean going back to work for a few years and waiting out the recession. hopefully, if you did that… and left your investments in the stock and bond market, you would be in good shape.
The key takeaway is that throughout the history of modern america - you’ll be fine to retire using the 4% rule. So calculate your yearly expenses… include some emergency padding… and start investing to get to that goal of 25 times your expenses.
Let me know if you have any questions or comments below! Is this crazy? Or am I onto something?
Again, thank you to mr money mustache and the mad feintist for the inspiration!
Cheers,
Phil
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Пікірлер: 542

  • @Aziz__0
    @Aziz__0 Жыл бұрын

    Planning retirement has never been this confusing! First SVB, then Signature bank and now First republic, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash and recession 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar, or could this be a good time to buy stocks? So I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here,

  • @sherryie2

    @sherryie2

    Жыл бұрын

    Everyone needs a different stream of income , unfortunately having a job doesn't mean security due to the high rate of tax , one needs to move ahead their expectation, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.

  • @ktube2020

    @ktube2020

    Жыл бұрын

    @@sherryie2 true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.

  • @c.t.u.o

    @c.t.u.o

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ktube2020 Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 - company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I'm 46 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc.

  • @ktube2020

    @ktube2020

    Жыл бұрын

    @@c.t.u.o credits to NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up

  • @c.t.u.o

    @c.t.u.o

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ktube2020 Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her

  • @Riggsnic_co
    @Riggsnic_co2 ай бұрын

    I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.

  • @Syndiewndell

    @Syndiewndell

    2 ай бұрын

    Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.

  • @martingiavarini

    @martingiavarini

    2 ай бұрын

    Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.

  • @Jamessmith-12

    @Jamessmith-12

    2 ай бұрын

    Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?

  • @martingiavarini

    @martingiavarini

    2 ай бұрын

    Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

  • @Jamessmith-12

    @Jamessmith-12

    2 ай бұрын

    She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

  • @DavidMiller-du9dy
    @DavidMiller-du9dy2 жыл бұрын

    Retiring early is possible but tough, it definitely requires discipline and big sacrifices. It’s not only about saving, the huge step is boosting earning capacity. I’m glad I got into stocks and recently understood and purchased my first NFT.

  • @kelvinjohnson3906

    @kelvinjohnson3906

    2 жыл бұрын

    Not everyone has their financial freedom so well sorted out, it’s ideal to get in early on some investment opportunities.

  • @noelstout3056

    @noelstout3056

    2 жыл бұрын

    @Sean Roger I’m aware of Dan Raziel, how reliable has he been, and how profitable are his trades on a monthly basis ?

  • @rohitmajumdar1579

    @rohitmajumdar1579

    2 жыл бұрын

    Financial freedom is about control. control over your financial present and your financial future, it all comes down to investing right.

  • @AdityaWibisana

    @AdityaWibisana

    Жыл бұрын

    Congrats on your now-expensive NFT 🎂

  • @sunilj10
    @sunilj107 жыл бұрын

    I retired this year at 40 my childhood dream come true

  • @VideoSchoolOnline

    @VideoSchoolOnline

    7 жыл бұрын

    That's awesome! Congrats! any tips?

  • @vikasnarang83

    @vikasnarang83

    7 жыл бұрын

    Sunil J - ya pls share ur exp.8006666130

  • @trevorthenbafan2848

    @trevorthenbafan2848

    7 жыл бұрын

    Sunil J congrats

  • @raviputcha

    @raviputcha

    7 жыл бұрын

    Now Sunil J will have to invent more lies just to answer your question. What a pain! Be kind to him folks! Common, who in the hell 'dreams' of retiring? that too in one's childhood, total bullshit!

  • @sunilj10

    @sunilj10

    7 жыл бұрын

    I did not think it important to respond to your note, since I do not have to prove to anyone. However, I decided to honour the person who is encouraging others. Just because you think it is not possible, does not mean it does not exist or is not true. The biggest part of financial freedom is to stop being greedy - drawing the line, apart from having to create your stand alone cash flow. Btw, all of it is not given to me through generations. I have built my own independent flows, thanks to the almighty for the dream and the opportunities, I got and capitalized on.

  • @coasteyscoasteys4150
    @coasteyscoasteys41507 жыл бұрын

    it's good to plan for the future but don't get addicted to it, at least live a little today. anything can happen, health issue, death,

  • @guyh.4553
    @guyh.45536 жыл бұрын

    Nice accounting. Helped me out a lot. Made perfect sense once you explained it.

  • @ethelbertjohn3845
    @ethelbertjohn38454 жыл бұрын

    A really good video, retirement it's a crucial point in our lives many forget to plan for.

  • @LivingOverseasTV
    @LivingOverseasTV6 жыл бұрын

    Very good information. I have been living on a budget of $1,200 per month including health care and traveling the world. I think this may be a good option for some. Ecuador and Thailand are both very affordable and my lifestyle, for the most part, is greatly improved. I would love to team up with someone to create some workshops to bring this information to those that are interested.

  • @haatib42

    @haatib42

    5 жыл бұрын

    Living Overseas TV sounds interesting, should start a blog

  • @MikeRosehart
    @MikeRosehart6 жыл бұрын

    Great video, I enjoyed it, I was thinking of making a very similar video explaining how I retired at 24/25 with the 4% SWR

  • @keatonmorgan295
    @keatonmorgan2954 жыл бұрын

    Good video, am grateful I made an early move toward retirement that has benefited me so much lately.

  • @ticnatz
    @ticnatz7 жыл бұрын

    I retired this year at 58. I won't even tap into my holdings. I will be reinvesting still, for quite a few years. I live in Europe, get an American pension, and will work just a little bit. I firmly believe in living below your means.....if you can

  • @aliesneo

    @aliesneo

    7 жыл бұрын

    Fleck can you share where in Europe you live and if you own a home there. if so, how did you acquire the house?

  • @nykidxxx

    @nykidxxx

    7 жыл бұрын

    Do your research, there's no way you can copy exactly what he does.

  • @Lexethan2011

    @Lexethan2011

    7 жыл бұрын

    Here's something to strive for. Well done!

  • @aliesneo

    @aliesneo

    7 жыл бұрын

    i am not interesting in recreating what Fleck has achieved, i simply want to know how he went about purchasing property in Europe and if he used financing from an american institution.

  • @slamdunk715

    @slamdunk715

    7 жыл бұрын

    He will be living in Europe, but siphoning cash from the USA at the same time?

  • @joeskis
    @joeskis7 жыл бұрын

    Wow that was a really good ad, I thought it was the video. But then I noticed the skip ad button. Pretty effective but I wised up just in time before the pitch.

  • @Brutus2834
    @Brutus28348 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for explaining the 4% rule in a simple way to understand. I love personal finance!!!

  • @VideoSchoolOnline

    @VideoSchoolOnline

    8 жыл бұрын

    +Conilious “Brutus” Neequaye glad you enjoyed this!

  • @RetireCertain
    @RetireCertain7 жыл бұрын

    Great video with some very good data to explain the 4% rule. I would add that the increase in your stock investment account would include not only dividends, as you mention, but also capital gains, and both would be left in the account. The magic of compounding can do a lot without much work over many years. Thanks for your thorough video.

  • @ronriesinger7755
    @ronriesinger77557 жыл бұрын

    Very helpful. Best explanation I have heard of the 4% rule.

  • @Jvuski
    @Jvuski7 жыл бұрын

    I retired this year at age 11

  • @furtim1

    @furtim1

    7 жыл бұрын

    I retired retroactively from the creation of the universe until about 20 years ago.

  • @ciacono1

    @ciacono1

    7 жыл бұрын

    J Vuski llp

  • @simontalbot2507

    @simontalbot2507

    7 жыл бұрын

    LOL

  • @bevans76

    @bevans76

    7 жыл бұрын

    Scam

  • @ahadulislam8891

    @ahadulislam8891

    7 жыл бұрын

    J Vuski me too

  • @CoachDomCosta
    @CoachDomCosta7 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so very much for sharing this!

  • @texas70.32
    @texas70.326 жыл бұрын

    Simple and clear. Good work.

  • @stangtrax
    @stangtrax6 жыл бұрын

    ATTENTION: At 1:07 it says 50/50 stocks and bonds. At 3:07 it is a chart of 100% stocks. Overall I agree and like the video. Each do what you want, but 100% stocks investment, with dollar cost average and a drip for me. I studied the stock chart also going back the 100 years even the great depression. One day I need to make a video of explaining how simple investing really is vs risk and reward. Man I would have liked to know what I know now 20 years ago.

  • @ariefraiser140

    @ariefraiser140

    4 жыл бұрын

    The stock chart isn't saying that you should be 100% into stocks.

  • @amos1kurtda
    @amos1kurtda6 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for that very informative. Ive been investing in the real estate market, done pretty well out of it but looking for something more liquid. Any funds you recommend?

  • @pjenkinsa
    @pjenkinsa6 жыл бұрын

    Great video - clear and simple

  • @askvanita
    @askvanita8 жыл бұрын

    Nice video and good advice. Thank you for making it.

  • @VideoSchoolOnline

    @VideoSchoolOnline

    8 жыл бұрын

    +Stanley George thank you!

  • @michaelreid2171

    @michaelreid2171

    5 жыл бұрын

    Seems insane. If you worked 40 uninterrupted years saving 25% of your gross with 8% returns you won't even have 30 times your salary after inflation. And That's a lot of saving without considering sackings, illnesses, divorce, swindles or any other reversals!!!

  • @MyWorld-xy7gv
    @MyWorld-xy7gv4 жыл бұрын

    Very informative.

  • @JohnSmith-db1qi
    @JohnSmith-db1qi5 жыл бұрын

    To keep with the idea of living below my means next month I'm moving into a smaller box on a busier street. I hope the increased traffic noise will take my mind off my smaller quarters.

  • @koketsomoeng
    @koketsomoeng6 жыл бұрын

    Great video 👍🏾

  • @andrewnewman2516
    @andrewnewman25164 жыл бұрын

    Retired 8 years ago and I've been able to keep my finances in check through investment. i make about $24k a month from my investments in foreign exchange markets(forex). There isn't a particular amount of money needed for retirement

  • @jovenelpierre2630

    @jovenelpierre2630

    4 жыл бұрын

    the income is quite reasonable, it's always safe to earn passively

  • @gagnonsmith5912

    @gagnonsmith5912

    4 жыл бұрын

    Interesting

  • @andrewnewman2516

    @andrewnewman2516

    4 жыл бұрын

    this past months have been the best of my life, with income coming in I don't worry much, my son is grown and has his finance rolling so I make donations to charity as I believe so much in humanity. Making the best of our my retirement days, we all live but once.

  • @ericwalter4416

    @ericwalter4416

    4 жыл бұрын

    I'm fully interested in learning how to trade any suggestions?

  • @andrewnewman2516

    @andrewnewman2516

    4 жыл бұрын

    Yes Andy, i made alot of bad trades at first but coming across an expert trader helped in getting back to winning ways , my expert trader still handle my trades and he's also teaching me how to trade efficiently, i made $6k on my own last week. Having an expert made the work a lot easier for me, their experience and understanding of the market is amazing.

  • @tankyg8231
    @tankyg82316 жыл бұрын

    The Norwegian Government is using this for retirees and healthcare in Norway :P

  • @tbnewhomes
    @tbnewhomes5 жыл бұрын

    Great video

  • @taxol2
    @taxol26 жыл бұрын

    There is simpler way if you can afford it. Buy properties where the population is still growing, rent them as income. Keep renting them and hold these properties until you decide to quit being landlord. Maybe at age 75 or so. Sell the properties, invest the proceed in blue chips dividend stocks or bonds. Inflation will incrase your property value till the time you decide to sell them Dividends and bonds coupon will support your monthly living cost.

  • @andypagakis

    @andypagakis

    6 жыл бұрын

    Good advice, but most people dont really consider real estate investing, If you do it right you can 10% returns and increase in value too like you said

  • @taxol2

    @taxol2

    6 жыл бұрын

    Andy Pagakis I agree, that is why I said “if you can afford it” and definately not for everyone. Your 1st investment property (which is usually your second property-since your first property is for living) will drain you! But if you keep on doing it right, after the rent income coming in from your several properties, your 4th or 5th property will become very affordable (assuming there is no huge spike or crash in property price in very short time). I am lucky that I have been able to do it. The rent will support my living cost. The capital gains accumulating until my retirement year will be the long term “timed deposit”. Reaching retirement years most of them can be sold and I’ll switch to fixed income papers like blue chip investment stocks and invt grade corp bonds for my living cost.

  • @stangtrax

    @stangtrax

    6 жыл бұрын

    LMAO I would not want to put up with tenants.

  • @andypagakis

    @andypagakis

    6 жыл бұрын

    me neither, i factored in property management in my 10%

  • @taxol2

    @taxol2

    6 жыл бұрын

    stangtrax most of mine are nice people who maintained my houses quite well. Can always screen them before signing the lease agreement

  • @HeritageWealthPlanning
    @HeritageWealthPlanning6 жыл бұрын

    Big fan of Video School Online. This video does an adequate job of discussing the 4% "rule". My only comment though is if you retired in October 2007. By March 2009, you are now taking 6.6% out of your portfolio. This is called sequence of return risk. It gets overlooked A LOT. And in reality when people are faced with it, they have a hard time staying the course. I've seen it over, and over, again. Secondly, the 4% rule was based on an era where the 10 Treasury bonds were paying twice what they are now. With bond rates as they are today, the 4% has been downward adjusted to 3.2%.

  • @ffrebello
    @ffrebello8 жыл бұрын

    Very informative. Thanks

  • @sattharabdul5576

    @sattharabdul5576

    7 жыл бұрын

    ಫ್ಲಾಯ್ನ್ ರೆಬೆಲ್ಲೊ Hi bro. .. it won't work in our country... since our inflation rate is @ 8% :(

  • @RunForMillionaire
    @RunForMillionaire7 жыл бұрын

    Cool video!

  • @danidimitrov3826
    @danidimitrov38268 жыл бұрын

    Nice video as always! ;)

  • @VideoSchoolOnline

    @VideoSchoolOnline

    8 жыл бұрын

    +SlenderBird | 2D Design thank you!

  • @andrewe.7907
    @andrewe.79076 жыл бұрын

    How do you go about taking the 4% from the non retirement accounts before hitting 60? Do you take the entire 4% at the beginning of the year and live off that or take it during the course of the year? And how do you decide where to pull from?

  • @jburkie01
    @jburkie017 жыл бұрын

    Definitely need to get busy saving this shows how behind I am at 50, Uggh. Big challenge with high mid age expenses...

  • @bernardmungin5940
    @bernardmungin59405 ай бұрын

    I really enjoyed this post. I am planning my retirement. I really don't want to work till I am 65. I am want to do it earlier.

  • @BRuane-pw6xq
    @BRuane-pw6xq6 жыл бұрын

    In the long run this works well . Trick is to adjust your withdrawals during downturns as 4 percent of a much lower portfolio should cause you to adjust your spending or add income via a 2nd job.

  • @tkdcow9911
    @tkdcow99118 жыл бұрын

    Far better than social insecurity.

  • @VideoSchoolOnline

    @VideoSchoolOnline

    8 жыл бұрын

    +TKD COW haha yep

  • @BigRed2

    @BigRed2

    6 жыл бұрын

    Video School Online Can’t get rid of obamacare, Social security will always be there because too many “voters” depend on it

  • @TripSeibold
    @TripSeibold7 жыл бұрын

    Really liked your video. Great explanation and details on inflation. I'm personally planning on a 3.3% (30x) rule for myself. Great job putting this together and giving a shout out to MMM and Mad Fientist. How close are you to FI?

  • @justinofboulder

    @justinofboulder

    7 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the positive comment! My partner just "retired" this year (she's 43), and seeing her do it has me excited to get there.....even though I still enjoy my work. I have about 5-7 years to go according to my figures. Started following MMM about 6 years ago, and while I never felt I could take the concept to the "extremes" he has, slowly I have been changing my ways and building wealth in the process.....

  • @eladiohernandez1257
    @eladiohernandez12575 жыл бұрын

    Great video thank you my dream is to retire at 55 my savings still far off to make my dream come true, but I will try hard by reducing housing cars and add a short term portfolio to live 5 years at 60 I can take 4% and I take social security at 70 that should be achivable

  • @shaunrosenberg4568
    @shaunrosenberg45687 жыл бұрын

    I'm hoping to use the "living off dividends" rule. I'll earn 2% or so dividends and get a 7% raise each year.

  • @Kcducttaper1
    @Kcducttaper17 жыл бұрын

    I'd like to think that, if you place your investments wisely, you can get closer to 8-10, maybe even 12% interest. A bit hard to do in an often limited 401k plan though.

  • @ox5090
    @ox50906 жыл бұрын

    S&p averages just under 10% every year with reinvestment.

  • @guilhermehx7159
    @guilhermehx71593 жыл бұрын

    Very good EBINER

  • @ShashiBhushan2k13
    @ShashiBhushan2k137 жыл бұрын

    Good Advice man. I aspire to retire before 2030 :)

  • @lm5585sysmatrix
    @lm5585sysmatrix6 жыл бұрын

    One confusing part... Video states that the market has returned 7% on average when dividends are reinvested. However, in retirement, dividends become the income and don't get reinvested. So how do we keep the 7% average when the dividends are no longer reinvested?

  • @jimgood1949
    @jimgood19497 жыл бұрын

    OK as far as how much, but specifically how do you decide what to take the money from? If stock prices are high and bond prices are low, draw only from securities and leave bonds alone, then vice versa, or always draw a bit from both? That is the complicated question.

  • @londonspade5896
    @londonspade58967 жыл бұрын

    I retired at the start of this year only 7 months after conception, 60 days or so and I'll pop out ready to party.

  • @Bea_remembrance
    @Bea_remembrance7 жыл бұрын

    good video

  • @satyajh
    @satyajh7 жыл бұрын

    +Video School Online Is this calculation based on stats for the US bonds and stock market and the US rate of inflation? In India the inflation rate has fluctuated a lot over the decades so would the 4% rule hold true globally?

  • @jasonfarmer6916
    @jasonfarmer69166 жыл бұрын

    so pulling out 4% a year of the fund would leave the same about of principal and it would never go down or go away

  • @MJAli89
    @MJAli895 жыл бұрын

    1) Become debt free 2) Have a years salary saved for emergencies 3) Now work when ever you want to.

  • @azizanaziz3376
    @azizanaziz33766 жыл бұрын

    You did the best and most concise explanation of the 4% rule. Great video

  • @ChrisMFlorida
    @ChrisMFlorida7 жыл бұрын

    Great video.. and you make it easy for everyone to understand. Thanks!

  • @tillgaller1164
    @tillgaller11647 жыл бұрын

    Sorry, so should I take 4% of my monthly income back or should I invest it? What to invest in?

  • @MichaelGGarry

    @MichaelGGarry

    7 жыл бұрын

    No, the 4% is the money you would have to live on *after* retirement. You need to save/invest as much as you can until then....

  • @forgednotcast612
    @forgednotcast6123 жыл бұрын

    The Median balance in a 401k at age 65 is only 126,000 dollars which under the 4% rule is $5,040 a year and $420 a month. One Million is a very small segment of American retirees.

  • @pawezielinski7987
    @pawezielinski79877 жыл бұрын

    Big isse with this vid: On what markets (location nad period) and on what investments do you measure 7% growth and 3% inflation? You know that USA, UK, Western Europe and Easter Europe have vastly different numbers for those, right? You know that different financial instruments will give different ror in the same given time? You do count taxes, right?

  • @maximilienbisson159
    @maximilienbisson1597 жыл бұрын

    While I think this 4% (or 3%) rule has a lot of logic, this can't be applied directly to everybody. In many countries/territories, you will have to pay taxes on the money you withdraw form your savings. The are a lot of different governemental programs and it probably is different everywhere, but, to continue with your 40000$/year expenses for a family; in order to have 40000$ cash (ready to be spent), the family will have to withdraw more (and in many places a lot more). Sure, as you said, those countries/territories would probably also have retirement plans for their retired people which would provide a certain amount of money troughout the year that you didn't take into account and that will probably counter balance a part of the taxes you'll have to pay, but probably not everything depending on your situation. Basically, I think this video is good to demonstrate that it's not so hard to calculate what you'd really need to retire. Just wanted to clarify that this 4% rule will not apply to everybody everywhere, and that it also doesn't allow for any extra expense unless you have an annual budget for ''extra'' taken into account.

  • @desscanlon2206

    @desscanlon2206

    4 жыл бұрын

    Maximilien Bisson XX

  • @donaldlyons17

    @donaldlyons17

    2 жыл бұрын

    Glad you said it and taxes were not taken out either. Why no one accounts for that makes no sense but normally they don’t.

  • @Moyodsreds
    @Moyodsreds5 жыл бұрын

    In today's world with bonds at 2% I'm not sure the 60/40 rule and 4% withdrawal still holds true? What say you? Unlikely bonds will ever return to their former glory

  • @TheShowThatSUX
    @TheShowThatSUX7 жыл бұрын

    What concerns me about this logix is how things are changing: Yes 1913 to 2016 inflation = average 3.27% And yes 1913 to now = average market ROR 6.XX% But 2 problems with this model: 1) current rate to date average ROR is 5.47%, and depending how you do it weighted averages can be as low as 4.27%. 2) more recent inflation (1974 to now) averages out closer to 4.11% and no longer includes things like food and fuel so in practice is more. Those 2 numbers are far to close to one another for my liking.

  • @bobbytheblade2550
    @bobbytheblade25505 ай бұрын

    4% withdrawal rate is too low for those who retire early and have the means to grow the asset way beyond that. My wife has managed growth in our investment net worth an average of 12% which is crazy good, and we both retired in our 50's. Our withdrawal rate is right at 8% which allows us to index inflation and experience some real growth though slight. And we are prepared for cutting back in hard times. This works well for us, but is everybody going to be able to grow this well in retirement? Most folk should follow a safer, less aggressive route.

  • @OptimizeYourJourney
    @OptimizeYourJourney8 жыл бұрын

    Thx for the vid , i learned new concepts :) is there any books you can recommend on the 'trinity study' ? -optimize

  • @waltheisenberg5620
    @waltheisenberg56206 жыл бұрын

    The flaw in 0:36 is many have the assets in taxable investments so technically speaking, if you need $40,000 a year net to live on, you'll need something more closer to $1.2 million.

  • @classicnut6655
    @classicnut66556 жыл бұрын

    The Monte Carlo curve and 4% creates a whole new issue being that it is often not feasible to create the amount of assets to generate the amount of income needed to have full income replacement. Meaning I need to replace $100,000 a year income. But to spend like $100k in 30 years I need to make $250,000 a year due to inflation. So after social security and subtracting house, car and savings I would need need about $180,000 income to live like I live today. That means I would need to have $4.5 million in assets to generate the income needed to maintain my lifestyle. I have found that using the 2 economic powers to create my own covered asset or pension strategy allows me to generate more income guaranteed while investing less over time.

  • @ThaylorHarmor
    @ThaylorHarmor7 жыл бұрын

    My motivation to retire is so I can volunteer more of my time. I can't fathom "relaxing" doing nothing.

  • @VideoSchoolOnline

    @VideoSchoolOnline

    7 жыл бұрын

    True that!

  • @coasteyscoasteys4150

    @coasteyscoasteys4150

    7 жыл бұрын

    Thaylor Harmor no one ever truly retires. you have to do something in your time or you will go crazy. i see lots of old people looking after gardens in retirement and they obviously enjoy it. so why not find a job doing that in your working days

  • @briannab5296

    @briannab5296

    7 жыл бұрын

    +coasteys coasteys ... men retire, women never truly get to retire.

  • @justinofboulder

    @justinofboulder

    7 жыл бұрын

    prefer the term FI (financial independence) to "retirement"........I enjoy work, and like that I can choose what projects I take on......

  • @domjervis
    @domjervis7 жыл бұрын

    Pretty good video, Sir. Have you ever done one on annual Roth Conversions, the goal of which is to minimize the big, wet bite Uncle Sam takes out of one's IRA starting at age 70 1/2? I'm hoping that by using this strategy, my Required Minimum Distributions will be less than the sum of the Standard Deduction plus the Personal Exemption, resulting in no Federal Income Tax on those RMDs...100% legally.

  • @Arbmosal
    @Arbmosal8 жыл бұрын

    People should be aware that the 4% rule gives you only a rough estimate. You made this clear in the video but I feel you could have stretched it a bit more. 1. If I spend 25 000 yearly now, 4%-rule says I need 500 000. But if I need 15 years to get to that number Inflation will increase my yearly expenses to over 30 000 so I need around 750 000 to cover the expenses at the time I retire 2. In the trinity study (and this you should totally have mentioned) success was defined to having 1$ or more left. They don't tell us what the average or median left over money was, but what if the average left over money after 30 years was only 100$? It is easily possible to be good for 30 years but fail after 35 or something like that. So one of the most important points you made, was that you have additional income from social security and by doing paid "work". For someone who does not have this additional income the 4% rule can well be to dangerous.

  • @kl8922
    @kl89227 жыл бұрын

    Average 7% for yearly returns for the average joe, and look what happened to NVDA stock from 2015 to now. It's up 800%. All the other tech stocks are up over 50% in 2 years.

  • @Seethi_C
    @Seethi_C2 жыл бұрын

    But the 7% market return is already adjusted for inflation (gross returns are over 10% on average), so it would seem that you could safely withdraw 7%, right?

  • @abhattach21
    @abhattach218 жыл бұрын

    Hi Phil, is it 7% avg annual return for investments overall or for just stocks. In another video, you mentioned that it's 7% for stocks. Please clarify. Thanks.

  • @VideoSchoolOnline

    @VideoSchoolOnline

    8 жыл бұрын

    7% is typically a safe annual return for the stock market over the long run.

  • @ReeceJCoxy
    @ReeceJCoxy5 жыл бұрын

    You say invest in bonds. What type of bonds. What rating status? And in stocks. Do you mean purely in stocks or some in mutual funds or etfs

  • @badass6656
    @badass66567 жыл бұрын

    Shares and Bonds provide cash flow. If you spend less than the cash flow you can spend he income indefinitely. The 7% average return rate occurred when as you mentioned inflation was higher than now. Economic growth was also higher than it is currently. As you mentioned 3%, cash flow will be nearer this figure for most people.

  • @junsilver650
    @junsilver6502 жыл бұрын

    Can anyone pls clarify the 4% adjusted for inflation? Is it 4% of your initial nest egg or present value? If your investment drops in value, would you be withdrawing 4% of that reduced investment?

  • @sheraazaliinamdar1216
    @sheraazaliinamdar12168 жыл бұрын

    hey conlious nice to hear something worthy from u.I m from India where in my native state I want to start up with a concept where all d graduates and post graduates can get skilled themselves with the help of my videos and knowledge where ill make them to get their dream jobs in here how can i start shud i go wid youtube or with my website where they will get daily fresh videos and how i should be getting profits

  • @TheSrirammusic
    @TheSrirammusic7 жыл бұрын

    i couldnt understand the calculation. what 25 times? 3%?

  • @Sky1
    @Sky16 жыл бұрын

    Mama used to say, "It's just as easy to fall in love with a Rich one!".

  • @AtheistEve
    @AtheistEve7 жыл бұрын

    I retired (by accident) at age 50.

  • @eleveneleven572
    @eleveneleven5726 жыл бұрын

    You can even go further if you're older. As you age you spend less...travel, car, entertainment etc. Plus you can draw on capital....because no on lives forever.. Do the sums.

  • @antraxpippo68
    @antraxpippo686 жыл бұрын

    What kind of investment give surely 7 per cent a year

  • @HD893
    @HD8937 жыл бұрын

    Here is the simple rule. Set a permanent monthly withdraw on your check, which will go to an investment account. You are never allowed to touch that account unless you are dying (you are out of luck). Excuses such as I have to go on vacations or weeding or gits are not allowed (You simply don't have money, NEVER treat saving money as normal spending money). You can take it out when you retired or better leave it there for your children (assuming you educate them well). Save money early is the key especially when you are young (resist peer-pressure aka large-scale brainwash).

  • @sreemukhkovuri4789
    @sreemukhkovuri47897 жыл бұрын

    Not bad. But this doesn't apply to my country (India) or any other developing economy where inflation rates are far higher. Then again, markets are more volatile and stocks might give much better returns than expected due to growing economy overall.

  • @argentumtaibhsear621
    @argentumtaibhsear6216 жыл бұрын

    I do love that you used 1900 for stock but 1913 for inflation.

  • @parkerbohnn
    @parkerbohnn6 жыл бұрын

    You overlook things like sickness, the certainty of the biggest stock market crash of all time in the future (100 percent certain) and of course bank bail-ins where the banks simply takes your life savings.

  • @gspeku9173
    @gspeku91737 жыл бұрын

    at 2:45 its not 7%-3%, its 1.07*0.97=1.0379, so 3.79% thats how math works ;)

  • @mattkennedy3474
    @mattkennedy34746 жыл бұрын

    I was born retired ::drops mic::

  • @ethanwormell4812
    @ethanwormell48128 жыл бұрын

    I was excited to watch this video and then I heard the voice of a 20 year old....How about someone who is retired? Can we get some experience behind these hopes and dreams please?

  • @VideoSchoolOnline

    @VideoSchoolOnline

    8 жыл бұрын

    +Ethan Wormell I would check out MrMoneyMustache.com, he's what I've based a lot of my knowledge on.

  • @beyondfossil
    @beyondfossil7 жыл бұрын

    Two thumbs up!

  • @DLBcovers
    @DLBcovers5 жыл бұрын

    I retired this year as a zygote.

  • @stephonlee40
    @stephonlee406 жыл бұрын

    I'm 47 and I've 6 houses at 2 countries worth 3.5 million us with an 11% mortgage and still hard working

  • @Oneofakind123
    @Oneofakind1236 жыл бұрын

    What about taxes on the investment gains? I never hear anyone mention that when talking about 4% rule. Should I simply add expected taxes on the yearly spending sum?

  • @blackworldtraveler3711

    @blackworldtraveler3711

    6 жыл бұрын

    Oneofakind Everyone situation is different. You should be able to figure it out and control your taxes.

  • @TomDoncaster
    @TomDoncaster8 жыл бұрын

    SEEMS TO ME THAT AN INDEX OR VARIABLE INSURANCE CONTRACT COULD ASSIST GREATLY

  • @rhdtv2002
    @rhdtv20026 жыл бұрын

    My father in law retired at 50 with 10 kids with his only wife. Sometimes it's all about luck and being cheap. He only gave the basics to the kids and wasn't a enabling parent - he bought a multi unit property because he knew no one will rent him with that many kids. That home he bought for 39k in what is called Wicker Park in Chicago. He then bought the building next to that for 69k then the next one for 99k. With each purchase of the next home he paid off the other one. He makes easily off one bldg 100k a year in rents and is 75 years old. All these properties are worth several million now. FYI- he came from Mexico in his 20s.

  • @donaldlyons17

    @donaldlyons17

    2 жыл бұрын

    He bought real estate and he likely selected for poor people with a little money used the law and evicted those with no cash. He was able to comply with all housing laws and used his renters money to pay for everything!!! He sold housing something almost everyone needs not something people can just choose to go without!!!! It not his fault but housing is a scam that exploits the poor worst!

  • @angeliacurtis
    @angeliacurtis6 жыл бұрын

    What type of acct are u using to invest if it's not a retirement acct like a Roth IRA? I guess I'm confused about the ability to withdraw from ur investment if ur not at least 59 yrs old.

  • @mar504

    @mar504

    6 жыл бұрын

    You can withdraw principle from your ROTH before 59 without any penalty. You can also look into loopholes to move money from a traditional IRA/401k into your ROTH if your goal is to retire early, just search for "roth conversion ladder" and "roth Rule 72(t)".

  • @HP97user
    @HP97user7 жыл бұрын

    I prefer the 2% investment strategy; it allows for the market to lose half its value without you ever changing your spend rate (not entirely needed, but nice for extra security if you are skeptical of the overvalued market)

  • @DLBcovers
    @DLBcovers5 жыл бұрын

    I hope to someday retire before I was born.

  • @MrRandyScot
    @MrRandyScot7 жыл бұрын

    Does "yearly expenses" include taxes?

  • @twaters57
    @twaters577 жыл бұрын

    This may be true if you are a big spender. If you don't have any huge outstanding debt, most people can get by on their pension and social security. If you get $2,500 from social security and then another $2,500 from pension or 401, that is the equal to about the same as $75,000 a year normal salary since most states don't tax social security and you don't have to pay 15% payroll taxes. Plus you won't be paying into a pension or 401 either. Don't believe you have to have million dollars in the bank to retire.

  • @sschevmale24
    @sschevmale247 жыл бұрын

    So I work for a state hospital they take 7% of my check which is good. I also have an optional 403b acct and take 5% there. I figure save it before I send on something stupid lol ...

  • @pwk22
    @pwk226 жыл бұрын

    I question whether the exploding deficit, which will consume a greater and greater percentage of the budget, even ignoring today's low, low interest rates, will render the historic assumptions of 7% compounded yearly growth and 3% inflation overly optimistic.

  • @NoRegertsHere

    @NoRegertsHere

    3 жыл бұрын

    Government debt load isn’t the same as private debt load and budgeting around a dinner table. Private debt load is the issue, not government debt

  • @DevonWayne
    @DevonWayne6 жыл бұрын

    So basically if you have $20k a year lifestyle and want to live the next 25+ years in that lifestyle (think: beach town) then you only need 25x your income or $500,000. Then start to wrap your head around what $500,000 is. If you do sales or commissions, and make $100 commission per sale ($1,000 item on eBay or Shopify or Amazon, take home $100 profit) then you need to make 5,000 sales. If you sell the item(s) 1x a day, it will take you over 13 years to make $500,000. If you automate and make it a business, not a one man show, let's say 3x items a day. That's Going to be over 4 years. If you automate the customer service, the item uploads, the returns, and focus only on getting quality lead items and quality control, maybe you can sell 5 items a day. 5 items a day would be 3 years. You could retire in 3 years, with eCommerce. You just need to run the numbers. That's all it is. Make 1 sale a day. Then scale it up.