just sold part of my Nvidia stock to protect my profits, but I'm holding onto some for the long run because of the company's strong growth prospects. In addition, I'm thinking of expanding the variety in my $400K stock portfolio, but I'm not sure how to handle risks going forward.

@victoriaabott

Ай бұрын

Agreed! this is why I work with one.... My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors....

@kurtKking

Ай бұрын

I could really use the expertise of this advsors....

@victoriaabott

Ай бұрын

is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..../.

@kurtKking

Ай бұрын

Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. ....

@Pacifist322

Ай бұрын

Chain of scam bots

As much as I love Jack Bogle and appreciate the Vanguard Group, it just shows you that no matter how well informed anyone is, no one knows what the markets will do!

@DarkoFitCoach

2 ай бұрын

And thats what jack bogle always said. Nobody and i do mean nobody can predict the market. So we index

@SurpriseMeJT

2 ай бұрын

As said in another comment, Jack Bogle shared this same sentiment about predicting and timing the markets.

@bpb5541

2 ай бұрын

NO NO NO.. folks say you can't time the market. What they mean to say is they can't time the market. It is difficult. It takes years of practice. So I am going to tell you exactly how this is all going to go down... with some rough timing. Markets will continue to go up until the Fed Pivots and the yield curve reinverts. Once that happens we will crash by at least 50%. The bear market is going to last for years. If you are a swing trader of investor. When the FED Pivots that is your signal to get out of all your longs. If you are brave and have money you short right then and there. Until then we stay long. Once the VIX spikes above 75.. we get out of our shorts and go long again. We must realize that after the crash we will most likely go sidways for years... I think up to 7 years. It will be known as one of the lost decades.

@DarkoFitCoach

2 ай бұрын

@@bpb5541 awesome! Which numbers to play for the lottery?

@Duncan94

2 ай бұрын

@@bpb5541 Read the room pal.

That was really good grabbing the 2014 report. Shows that it’s all a bunch of educated guesswork. With an emphasis on guesswork.

@gardenersgraziers7261

2 ай бұрын

PRINT MONEY = VALUES INCREASE = aint rocket science kid

@PassivePortfolios

2 ай бұрын

Vanguard and other big players have predicted that Emerging Markets would beat the US stock market based on valuations, but have been wrong for many years. "Nobody knows nothing !" - as told to Jack Bogle by a broker's assistant.

It's all rubbish. The only thing economists are good at is telling you tomorrow why what they predicted for today didn't happen.

@Ikaros23

2 ай бұрын

And get paid for the exsplaination for « why», the prediction did not happen 😂. Finance is the only « science», where 99% of the modells are useless. But the expert gets doubble/tripple or 100-1000X more money than in other fields. And the irony is that the investors who often are smart people in their own craft, send their money to these con artists

@LowHangingFruitForest

2 ай бұрын

I almost became an economist, but it was very clear that the expectation was to tell people what the establishment wanted the people to think rather than what I actually thought.

@bjorn6084

2 ай бұрын

@@Ikaros23 Lol, and economists hired by public for-profit companies. Give me a break 😆

@Rj-nh1df

2 ай бұрын

KZread is full of misinformation

@Rj-nh1df

2 ай бұрын

KZread still full of misinformation

Here’s my take! 1)I prefer brunettes to bonds 2) my money is safer is the stock market than it is in my bank account where I’m tempted to spend it or where inflation will erode it. 3) I only own a SIPP which means I can’t access my investments till 25 years time. 4) we need a loss or slow decade so we can buy shares at a cheap price. 5) I allocate 20% of my portfolio to dividend paying companies which tend to have lower volatility and for psychological purposes. 6) I believe that good quality companies will continue to grow and do well as the world becomes more globalised and population increase. 7) Great video Toby!!!

@JaskanFactor

2 ай бұрын

Did you say as population increases, youre a very funny guy, i will tell bill gates you are expecting an increase in carbon

@parkerbohnn

2 ай бұрын

Pal the first rule of investing is to weigh upside and downside risk. Gold is the safest investment and U.S. stocks are the most risky.

@Abdul_Rahman86

2 ай бұрын

@@parkerbohnnI totally agree. The most riskiest place for my money is the bank. Inflation will erode it. I’m tempted to spend it. This is a personal take. I’m not a fan of gold anymore but I used to be an avid gold stacker. Loved my 1oz Britannias,

@Seelenverheizer

2 ай бұрын

the world is not globalising anymore, we are sliding to a cold war era block system West vs. the rest of the world.

@kippsguitar6539

2 ай бұрын

Very much mistaken, the world is actually de globalising , you should reconsider everything you said here

Before you presented the 2014 report, I was thinking “but what did they predict last time?” Safe to say, you can’t go far wrong if you just index and chill…

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

Great minds think alike :P

@kippsguitar6539

2 ай бұрын

Generally true but "can't go far wrong" and "safe to say" is very naive and dangerous, markets can and have had downturns, generally true in the long run however but don't be so sure , it's a game of probability

@Banthah

2 ай бұрын

@@kippsguitar6539 It’s not “very naive”. Of course markets have downturns, but the data has been run. The results are in. Over the long term, the stock market has proven itself to be an excellent inflation-beating investment. Of course there’s no guarantees, and past performance might not match future results. But “very naive”? Don’t be so silly

The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?

@MablePauls

2 ай бұрын

In particular, amid inflation, investors should exercise caution when it comes to their exposure and new purchases. It is only feasible to get such high yields during a recession with the guidance of a qualified specialist or reliable counsel.

@SirBenjamin-oq1wd

2 ай бұрын

True, initially I wasn't quite impressed with my gains, opposed to my previous performances, I was doing so badly, figured I needed to diverssify into better assets, I touched base with a portfolio-advisor and that same year, I pulled a net gain of 550k...that's like 7times more than I average on my own.

@Elizabeth-mh2dj

2 ай бұрын

This aligns perfectly with my desire to organize my finances prior to retirement. Could you provide me with access to your advisor?

@SirBenjamin-oq1wd

2 ай бұрын

Just research the name Angela Lynn Schilling. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

@Elizabeth-mh2dj

2 ай бұрын

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

i feel like all experts have their own agendas and self intrests

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

Always important to consider this for sure 👍

@kw8757

2 ай бұрын

A case of "I can see the brokers yachts, but where are their clients yachts?"

@dirtgrub2841

2 ай бұрын

It's all speculation right... the more money that "speculates" in a certain direction is just attempting to influence for their own gain.

@jamesmoore2345

2 ай бұрын

I feel like grass is green.

@steveanthony5530

2 ай бұрын

So…saving with a 5% return in an environment where inflation is running between 5 - 7% YoY is a valid option according to Vanguard? What am I missing here?

Every year they say the market will crash, even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

@davidanalyst671

2 ай бұрын

the yield curve has been flipped for 2 years, and nobody in the USA can afford a new house. There is some shtt to hit the fan. But biden doesn't want any crashed before hes out of office, so hes called up powell and told him keep pumping and printing.

@_Island_Boy

2 ай бұрын

When you start to defend your position that's when you've lost your objectivity and you should really close position.

@Pihlalorjoone

2 ай бұрын

Have you actually watched the video? Vanguard predicts a normalisation of the markets. Nothing at all about a crash...

@lawrencer8673

2 ай бұрын

@@Pihlalorjoone Yes I did watch the video, the point I was making; the report that vanguard published was on the bear side, I think this was to cover thier arse should the market go down. No one knows what is going to happen to the market over the next 10 years , even the best asset managers don't know. I can predict the weather by saying its going to rain.....eventually I will be correct...some people would then say wow I did not know you could predict the weather.....

@Brassmonk3

2 ай бұрын

I have a digital watch. You sure about that?

Very useful Toby 👍🏻. Basically, you would be better off just asking a taxi driver 😂

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

You’d probably have a better conversation 😂

@gardenersgraziers7261

2 ай бұрын

PRINT MONEY = VALUES INCREASE = aint rocket science kid

You get 4 or 5% but the inflation is that much, you do not come out ahead.

@QatarVegan

2 ай бұрын

But 4 or 5% better than if you stuff it under the mattress.

@eIonmusk542

2 ай бұрын

Inflation in the U.S. is down to about 3.6%. So you’re coming out slightly ahead. Better than not investing it.

So ultimately, Index & Chill :)

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

What would give you that idea... :P

@pascalschmid4555

2 ай бұрын

Absolutely, just opened another ETF position today 🎉

@bpb5541

2 ай бұрын

Stay long until the Fed Pivots... then that is your signal to get out of your longs and go max short. If you believe markets only go up and are a lazy set it and forget it 401k / Roth investor I fear for you. Markets go down. Bubble pop and the economic and buisness cycle is still very much alive. Where do we think we are at in that cycle? I certainly don't think we have another 15 years of expansion. The fake money that the government used that caused it... has run out. They can print... but if they do we get hyperinfation or worse stagflation. They will be in no position to save anyone .... they will be more concerned with saving themselves... which I think is very much at risk. Espeically if Trump gets reelected because he will just give out tax cuts for all and cause inflation to get even worse. At some point everything is too expensive and folks stop buying.. in a debt based system that would cause a crash. It's coming nothing can stop it now.. but certain things could make it worse.

@PassivePortfolios

2 ай бұрын

"Chill" is the difficult part due to the constant bombardment of info by the financial media urging investors to trade.

A wise german once said: forecasts are difficult, especially when its about the future😂

The most informative investment KZread channel out there. Factual and to the point, without any waffling. Keep up the great work!

@TobyNewbatt

Ай бұрын

☺️

It’s exceptionally difficult to predict market behaviour. That’s why the Permanent Portfolio is the way to go, at least if you’ve an older/retired investor.

The parable at the end was worth the wait 😂👍

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

:)

I've listened to a plethora of so called expert financial gurus... I like your approach and honest talk!!!

In my opinion you should have touched on volatility. Volatility is an important factor in investor psychology. Can you stand to see a 30% drop within 3 months and stay the course or are you likely to bail out at the wrong time? I ask myself this question a lot. Diversification is really important. Also your age is an important factor too. Some recommended putting your age in bonds and the rest in stocks. As we get older we won't have the time to come back from a major bear market.

The first YT vid I've seen in AGES that offers a sound perspective to investing. Well done! I've subscribed.

@TobyNewbatt

13 күн бұрын

Thanks James, welcome aboard :)

My entire savings (besides a small emergency fund) is all in Treasury Bills, which are currently paying at 5.4%. I buy a new one every 4-8 weeks. Please do not leave all your money sitting in your checking account making 0.001% interest like I used to!

The most informative investing KZread channel out there. Factual and to the point, without any waffling. Keep up the great work!

Thank you for bringing up this strategies, It's always a honor to have you here as a mentor. I appreciate you for the time being spent to educate us financially. With the helpI have netted a profit of 35k from my stock investment of 9k since following you for few weeks now after feeling so ecstatic and heavy minded that nothing good can come out of it.

Index and chill mate. 100% equity, only debt is your house and invest in your self and a sustainable business

@N.V-Tahfi

2 ай бұрын

That’s exactly my plan. We have a wide portfolio in index funds and the only debt we have is our mortgage. 🎉🎉

Only one thing is predictable...nobody is able to predict macro.

@gardenersgraziers7261

2 ай бұрын

PRINT MONEY = VALUES INCREASE = aint rocket science kid

Good episode. If prediction tells you that likelihood of something to happen is 50%(like that Vanguard report from 2014), then it is no longer a prediction. Coin flip would be equaly valuable in predicting the future.

LOL "we estimate 50% likelihood ..." is like saying - it may return more, or it may return less than 5%. Great analysis Vanguard! You've earned your keep.

I don’t care if you’re Jimmy Buffet or Warren Buffet nobody , I repeat NOBODY! Knows if the market is going up, down or sideways 😂😂😂

@zach8143

2 ай бұрын

I would disagree, market makers control the market or at least the stocks they have interest in. They 100% know and control what certain stocks do

@jeanrusso3822

2 ай бұрын

@@zach8143 I concur...

@livinthedream4479

2 ай бұрын

Markets to a certain extent are definitely controlled.

@Cronosboi94

2 күн бұрын

It’s somebody out there that knows what’s going on

Thank you for this excellent and informative video! Well done!

Seeing as the 4% rule is a safe bet over a 30 year period that’s what the go for because it’s probably not gonna go below that over a 10 year period and if it goes above that no one will complain about the over performance of the prediction. I think a lot of these forecasts are to manage expectations. Investors behaviour being the biggest cause of poor investment performance.

Loved this vid. Esp when you checked out 2014 report. Thanks!

With all of the current events, what is the best approach to profit from the present market? I'm still debating diversifying my $400k stock portfolio to obtain some profits while minimizing risk.

@RickWatson-xu6gw

2 ай бұрын

I guess it's important to reassess your investment strategies based on current market conditions. You should also consider a market expert to guide you.

I have to agree with your assessment. No one can predict the future with any certainty. You can have formulas and behaviors that are consistent with success. Being consistent with investments. Knowing when to be conservative and when to take chance when it is a calculated risk that’s being taken. Becoming very informed before making a decision and spreading the risk factors are ways to be successful. If and if there is a “crash”, then buy up the solid companies for cheap and laugh hard because you did it right. Great presentation and love the content.

Wouldn’t large cap stocks be more advantageous in terms of returns if they are the ones who don’t need loans at higher rates?

At 78 I keep wondering what my long term is?

I agree, Toby. My plan is keep moving from IB01 to VWRA each month and perhaps hit the 60/40 in a couple of years.

Loved style of video - easy to listen to - well done. Always feel gains should be stated after inflation and tax to really understand the significance.

Small caps have a lot of debt. Biggest holding in the IWM etf is SMCI which just holds Bitcoin. IWM is a value trap.

Diversification is key. When one falls the other goes up. Love a crash me as I sweep up those lovely stocks which come bouncing back 2 years later.

We would expect a firm like Vanguard to be conservative. Like you said: long term consistency and low fees.

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

I think that’s got to be the main driver. They stay pretty cautious and that’s fair enough.

Interest rates should be higher. However the question I never hear when economist talk about higher rates is, can governments afford higher rates? I don't think inflation in the US or Canada is going away because without inflation the only option for the governments there is default.

Interest rates will have to go to zero because the US can't afford to pay the interest related to higher rates with the debt we have.

@parkerbohnn

2 ай бұрын

If they go back to zero interest rate policy America will end up a basket case like Japan who ran zero interest rates for 30 years.

@carolgebert7833

2 ай бұрын

But the government needs to keep the rate high to attract debt buyers.

“There are economic facts and there's economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste.” Peter Lynch

Thanks Toby. Well considered and balanced facts and ideas. I think that the coming decade will indeed be underwhelming as there has been so much growth in the past 10 years caused by virtually free money. Asset prices are unlikely to rise by the amount they have done in the past decade because they are already unaffordable for most. The US big cap stocks that have seen huge growth will likely have a sharp correction and then continue upwards. I have started buying stocks that generate cash now. They are less likely to be as volatile and will hopefully grow at a reasonable rate…. perhaps 😂

Problem with bonds is they are an institutional investment and trade in enormous size. Retail gets screwed on their sizes which dramatically affects the yield especially on short dated notes.

Interest rates have a direct correlation with the amount of US Treasury bonds issued, the maturity of the bonds and the demand of those bonds issued.

Index and chill, exactly.....

Rates and prices have an inverse relationship. If rates stay where they are, no meaningful changes, then prices will likewise stay where they are. I've held Vanguard's bond fund for the last few years and have watched pricing drop while rates ran up. The fund's yield doesn't compensate for declines realized due to price declines.

You have just explained how the Fed policy of low interest rates was always wrong. It has skewed the stock market, shafted savers, and encouraged shafters in general.

The comparison with the report 10 years ago makes this an appropriate warning about listening to "financial experts" long-term predictions

Thanks. I feel your retrospective analysis is very sensible and well grounded.

Are you comparing 4% annual interest vs 30-120% annual growth of the investment? Why people were not investing in properties and played the stockmarket when the interest rate from the banks was close to 0%? The properties compared to the prices now ,at least in Europe, are 40% higher than few years back....

A,though I agree interest rates will remain high(er) most central banks have an inflatarget to meet. If they go below that, are they not obligated to lower rates further? I think insisting on rates remaining high might also be unpredictable.

One thing's for sure, stocks have less and less to do with investment in companies and more to do with money shuffling. An old rule of thumb was if the prime rate is above 3.5%, stocks go down and bonds and money markets go up.

I still agree with ABA . Anything but bonds. Dont see fiscal irresponsibility reversing. Growing debt loads means larger supply of bonds to sevice it, but i think the same doubt that caused them to have trouble in the last 5-10 years remain

Toby, do you think you'll chnsge your portfolio slightly? Will you decrease your US stocks and invest more global stocks & bonds? Thanks.

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

I’m well diversified across the world and I like to just keep it to market cap weights mostly! 👍. I do have some stock picks too for fun

@kcamfork

2 ай бұрын

VT and chill?

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

@@kcamfork For my US audience, absolutely :P - maybe I need to get some of those t shirts made :)

Mr.Martket is unpredictable, thats the BEAUTY of it.

Nobody knows what will happen but it's fun to guess and based on information known now, I think the Vanguard outlook has merit in my view. For example, out performance of large caps over small caps is something that happens over periods and vice versa, currently small caps show value and opportunity to outperform. Vanguard's own global corporate bond fund has not yet recovered all of its 2022 fall, so upside in bonds is possible especially if US interest rates come down a bit. Emerging markets are still lower than pre covid so upside potential perhaps. Let's see.

I note that Joseph Davis, Global Chief Economist, Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Senior Economist, Andrew Patterson and Qian Wang were all involved in writing both the 2014 and 2024 Vanguard reports. All I can say is that world markets certainly outperformed their predictions! I guess this is why fund managers rarely beat the market... By the way, if Vanguard are looking to produce a report in future that is no less accurate, but less expensive, I'm sure that my fees would be less than those 4 combined!

The basic index fund pays 9%. That’s better than high yield savings. Even with the risk. 401k’s o to index funds and the amount people can invest in tax deferred or tax free accounts is growing. I think opposite is happening in the long run. More money will be in the stock market.

So based on your analysis why would you invest in bonds when you can get 5.2% in cash for almost no risk?

@kinggeoffrey3801

2 ай бұрын

Do both. Diversity is key. Bonds always make a comeback.

Okay but pretty much the only reason they’ve been wrong is that they didn’t expect 1: interest rates remaining at 0 as that was considered poor economic policy for many of the reasons that we are now experiencing (inflation, capital appreciation vs labour, inequality, etc.) 2: besides the 0% rate, they also didnt expect the completely unhinged increase in money supply as a result of Covid. This has permanently messed the base amount of money in the economy, and has primarily gone into the hands of banks and other capital rich institutions that have not spent it and reinvested it instead. Just look at correlation of capital assets like housing vs money supply growth instead of comparing them to inflation

Vanguard Wellington Admiral is a good core holding...say 60% You can spice it up with a bit of BTC 20% and Gold 20%.

Well I definitely agree about bonds making a come back. They havnr been this low or pushed down year after year like this in forever. They are bound to rebound and issue good returns at some point. I've been buying BND and TLT in preparation of the recovery over the past 3 months.

Is that CAGR number for 2014-2024 adjusted for inflation? How much better than the expectation of 5-8% did the stock market do in real terms?

awesome conclusion, thank you!

Reminds me of this cartoon called Bloom County. One of the main character’s punishment was being locked in his room with 10 economists trying to predict the future of the economy with 10 different results

Excellent video and appreciate the historical context

Where did you get your stock screener and watch which is on your wall?

I have been told not to be fooled, stocks and etfs are not the economy, I had 180k put aside waiting for the feds to stop raising rates, now I’m ready to get back in the market, but it looks like the pause is forever and Faang will still rise/fall, I’m confused, what could be the way moving forward

Slightly higher inflation makes corporate sales increases, stock valuation higher. If there is no big crisis, but then what do I know.

vanguards predictions are what i like to call "guaranteeing success through lowered expectations". it has been the way i have lived my life in many aspects and i'm rarely disappointed.

Thank you for your report.

Chase bank has a 5.1% saving rate too, I have read.

Is anyone else having an issue with Vanguard answering questions regarding incorrect deductions of income tax from UFPLS withdrawal?

It think stock prices have come down already, a lot! Think about the high inflation we have already had, while, in the same time frame, stock prices haven't increased as much. So inflation already corrected the stock market quite significantly last 3 years.

So the UK central bank rate is currently 5.25% (1:00) and you want to lock in a guaranteed rate of 5.2% (1:54)?? Who in their right mind would want to lock in a guaranteed loss of .05%??

Bucket 1 cash at 5% interest, then the balance 60/40. Have a good chunk in cash. In a million dollars portfolio, 15-20% cash. Sleep tight.

@afridgetoofar1818

2 ай бұрын

60/40 doesn’t work anymore

International sales are nothing new to recent decades. I started my carreer as a stockbroker in 1972 and worked on Wall Street in the bond business. Large cap stocks {ex U.S) which have large sales to U.S. have much lower PE's and price to book, as well as dividend yield. My stock investments are mostly outside the US in these large cap ETF's like VYMI with high dividends. But I am 80 yrs old. The future has arrived for me. Most of my investment is in 2 yr. US Treasuries. Stocks are a secondary interest.

@TobyNewbatt

Ай бұрын

you must have some incredible stories from that time :) - enjoy your hard earned retirement my friend! If you get bored make a youtube channel and share some!! :)

Conclusion - don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

Good info presented in a good way. You earned a new subscriber here.

Great idea checking 2014. It sounds like this is an overcomplicated way of justifying a prediction based on reversion to the mean. But, US valuations are moving away from the mean for concrete, rational reasons. Those reasons are likely to continue for some time.

I knew at some point the bull market will end and a bear begins, it goes on and on... I have a 7 figure ballpark goal and I intend spreading across maybe 50k - 150k on plummeting stocks, my question is how can I know when a market bottom has been reached?

@VolleKwark

22 күн бұрын

You don’t.

I wonder what countries they are referring to. Many of the emerging markets are at their highs too. Only Hong Kong , Malaysia are laggards because of the then political upheavels which now has settled. Japan, India, Indonesia and Phillipines are at a Dow Jones height too.

The stock market will keep going up. It has nothing to do with interest rates, P/E ratios, etc. It's simply the fact that the economy generates excess wealth that has to go somewhere. Some goes to real estate, some to savings accounts. But most gets funneled into the stock market because that's the easiest place to put it.

stonks always go up, thats it. thats the play.

Weird that they think UK stock valuations are stretched. Interesting video, Toby. And great idea to look at the past report!

what Vanguard UK Bond/Fixed Income fund/ETF you suggest?

Toby, always a pleasure to watch your videos. Very informative.

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

:)

did the 2014 report show the graph with valuation percentile? be curios to see if they deemed stocks back then fair value or stretched

I think you are absolutely correct! Don't change your strategy. Continue to invest the same way and be vigilant regarding the stock market. I don't think vanguard is taking into account the massive transition that the world is going through and will be going through for the next 25 years with Auto and alternative energy and battery storage and AI investing will be flipped on its head.

@TobyNewbatt

2 ай бұрын

Whatever happens, I'm going to own every stock in the world through my index funds :P - picking the winners will never be as easy as people assume it is :)

Great content!

This is also because US government has been printing money and boosting the stock market. This can also happen in US because they are the world currency.

Great info from Toby as usual. Thank you

@gardenersgraziers7261

2 ай бұрын

PRINT MONEY = VALUES INCREASE = aint rocket science kid

Great video, I love your balanced view

It always amuses me how some financial "experts" forecast on a weekly basis a forthcoming crash, citing the fact they correctly predicted one way back when but conveniently forgetting the other many multiple times they got it completely wrong.

I am not Vanguard and I deduce exactly the same thing for several reasons. 1_ The most important thing is to have the currency with the greatest network effect, the dollar. The dollar is the most important of absolutely everything. They will never deliver the printing machine. The time has come to make people believe that the dollar is worth something, it must become scarce, it is a matter of life or death. 2_ The DXY is meeting either a Shark or a Cypher target 122, 143 or 180 (real end of the dollar). 3_ Wave C of crude oil in contango. It will NOT ever go back below 240 target 1,618. 4_ The interest rate graph itself should return to highs close to 12% or more, or remain at these levels for longer. Inflation is going to skyrocket anyway and THEY HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE FOR 1_.

Interest is higher, yes, but inflation makes your loan smaller. As longs as you increase your income, like governments make sure to do during inflation, you are actually better off.

Depending on the jurisdiction, interest income, dividends and capital gains have different effective tax rates. Complicates the analysis.

Vanguard report was published 6 months ago - not exactly newsworthy now

Glad i watched to the end .. good story :-)