Check out the full research here: cepr.org/voxeu/columns/recession-russia-deepens-evidence-alternative-tracker-domestic-economic-activity

@janstehlik3939

Жыл бұрын

well done!

@Shaterrer

Жыл бұрын

Will there be Ukrainian subtitles?

@TheOriginalJAX

Жыл бұрын

So you heart my comment then un heart my comment, kind of weird not sure what is with that. Don't know what nerve of yours I touched but I'm curios. So what gives?

@Homer-OJ-Simpson

Жыл бұрын

At 47:30 approx, you discuss the night time light study and applying it to Russia. I’m just hypothesizing here, but it might not be as useful as it was in that specific study. Wouldn’t such a light study mostly reflect how built up the economy is and not catch the full impact of short term changes like recessions? Those street lights and other light sources are already built, people already have their cars (even if they hold onto used car longer), etc? But it could still catch some of the impact just by seeing less factories being lighted up at night or people driving a little less.

@d3nza482

Жыл бұрын

@@Homer-OJ-Simpson Light study could indicate a recession by "shining a light" on deferred maintenance. Street lights are already built, but a broken one takes time, vehicles, fuel, replacement parts (both for lamps and vehicles), man-hours and even imported goods indicated by light color and dispersion going from directed LEDs to omni-directional mercury bulbs.

It's a sign of a great KZread channel when they interview primary sources. Thanks for sharing this and signal boost this important research!

Start at 4:30

Being an economist working in Russia for the moment and dealing with strictly open data, I find these results quite accurate. If we allow ourselves to oversimplify Russia's economic model, we can find not one, but two loosely connected Russian economies. The first one is oil&gas-exporting-budget-spending economy, which generates budgetary revenue and currency inflows. The second economy is everything else, including private manufacturing, which is dependent on the first economy in terms of currency for the essential imports, while its own export performance is rather poor. Hanna's research pays more attention to the second economy and subtracts some huge (and questionable in terms of people’s welfare and prosperity) boosts coming from the first one. All things considered, I’m quite happy with the integrity and credibility of the global economic community - I don’t see major disagreements between economist on the topics of Russian economic performance and the ultimate efficiency of sanctions. The place of birth and current location of true economic professionals don’t and shouldn’t matter.

@2639theboss

Жыл бұрын

The place of birth and location absolutely should matter. If you live in an authoritarian country, and the government specifies to the central bank that it wants to see X on a report, X will be there. That is not as much the case in other countries. Being ignorant to this, or saying it shouldnt matter, is naive. Especially when coming from a country where intellectuals were monitored, imprisoned, or killed not too long ago.

@knudskoubo1090

Жыл бұрын

@@2639theboss Im pretty sure you misunderstood what he ment... Btw. what country are you talking about 'Especially when coming from a country where intellectuals were monitored, imprisoned, or killed not too long ago'... Russia is not the USSR

@Jombozeus

Жыл бұрын

How can you possibly find this data accurate or inaccurate? You mean the data agrees with your own assessments?

@2639theboss

Жыл бұрын

@@knudskoubo1090 The current leader of Russia was literally in the KGB in the USSR. Are you really going to play at being so removed from reality that making an absurd claim that theres no impact of the USSR in the current political beaucracy of Russia? Half their current population was born in the USSR. Its not Napoleonic France, it didnt happen 200 years ago. What an incredibly dense person.

@knudskoubo1090

Жыл бұрын

@@2639theboss LOL... Your level of ignorance astonish me... You obviously dont know the difference between USSR and Russia... You ought to educate yourself...

I noticed in the description for the video Hanna's name is misspelled (with an 'h' at the end). I read an article on the lower air pollution decrease in Russia over the last year, and it's nice Hanna was able to aggregate all the information that was hard to otherwise put together.

@MoneyMacro

Жыл бұрын

Yes. My bad. Hanna also told me and I have changed it

A note: for the hous market CIAN is probably better, they are more popular. Also, for tracking internet search requests in Russia, get stats from google is not enough, since Yandex holds half of the market

@szurketaltos2693

Жыл бұрын

Yandex is closely tied to the govt and I suspect that they along with sberbank will be watched more closely after this

@user-kv6xl4od7k

Жыл бұрын

@@szurketaltos2693 not really. govt can veto some some decisions that might affect the market but thats it.

Thank you for posting this, it's fascinating to see all the data Hanna collected.

Well this comment section is not what I expected. Keep up the hard work Joeri, we appreciate and value your approach to economics.

@adamesd3699

Жыл бұрын

What did you expect?

@nvelsen1975

Жыл бұрын

@@adamesd3699 Probably Russian bots making up 70% of the comments, all argueing Russia's economy grew by 9999% in 2022.

@klam77

Жыл бұрын

@@adamesd3699 More jokes. Like why is Hanna laughing so much?

A really interesting discussion, I particularly appreciated the time taken to talk through the methodologies that had been used, and some interesting indicators and conclusions. Some excellent challenge questions from the interviewer too. Thank you for posting this!

Thank you both very much and thanks to the chat for the great question. This was balm for my soul which is sore form drama and agenda in science and media.

How can u not include the data of Chinese trade to Russia??

@spartanrating8210

Жыл бұрын

It will be inconvenient))))

@mnemonicpie

10 ай бұрын

But it's just 200 billions (100% of Ukrainian GDP)

Lights indicator makes sense in growth period- new ligts are added. Be it street lights, be it industrial buildings... but they make no sense in recession in energy rich country. Russia can't sell gas, so they can burn it basically for free, keeping nuclear plants costs very little so there is no sense to switch off any lights.

I wonder, are these 15 indicators adjusted to being proportional to the actual proportion that a factor contributes to the economy? An example is plane traffic, a sector which slowed down dramatically due to not being able to service planes. Does the research give a higher relevance to how much this sector contributes to the GDP compared to how much it actually contributes, and if so, how would any downturns be adjusted in context of the whole GDP and the sector's to actual contribution? Surely 1 sector has a larger relevance than another, given that it's doubtful that plane traffic would surmise to 1/15 of Russia's GDP. If some indicators contribute to the data less than 1/15, are others given more? And if not, how does the research fill the gaps that would in the end add up to 100%?

Very good and imaginative effort. An event I relied on as a sell signal was a large corporation announcing a big new headquarters. Another sell signal was a burst of CEO or corporate public relations releases. Annual reports style of CEO letter to stockholders. Sell signals are hard to get. Lots of such rules of thumb serve as checks on officially based numbers. Besides economic wonk, I was a practicing accountant in other careers.

Nitrogen dioxide will be emitted by factories making weapons not just consumer goods. Therefore not a good proxy for public domestic activity

I appreciate it for what it is. I really dig the analysis here using PCA to try and make sense of it I think it was a good move. I'm not sure I heard absolutely everything as I was studying and listening to it, but how did this fair when it came to predicting other years? I'd be interested to see some validation metrics for the model developed. Assuming a rich enough feature set, maybe a couple pairwise plots or something using t-SNE to help keep some of the original structure of the data. Sounds like she might have a hard time releasing everything because she doesn't want to ruin presumably untainted sources... eh.. it's reasonable

@szurketaltos2693

Жыл бұрын

Hm, I don't think tSNE, diffusion maps, etc. would give you anything as interpretable as PCA here.

@star-gs9kh

Жыл бұрын

What she did is just nonsense recherches.

@chucknaussie

Жыл бұрын

@@star-gs9kh Thank you for so courageously manifesting your ignorance. Onward and upwards !!

Do I understand correctly that you took international flights as an indicator? And this is given that most airlines - both Russian and foreign - were essentially banned from flying to or from Russia due to sanctions?

@wcg66

Жыл бұрын

Yes, but it has an economic impact.

@brookman2923

11 ай бұрын

@@wcg66very little impact,if British Airways doesn’t fly ( all services it provides includes in UK GDP but not in Russian GPP , Russia saved money on people who buys British services,only lost in on ground handling…

Great stuff, wholly convincing. And agree about the caveats re: GDP including output/spending for the War. It’s probable your own estimates are a better estimate of the real economy.

An interesting technique that could be used on other countries published economic data. 1. To improve the modelling or develop confidence in the model. 2. To draw conclusions.

I would like to see the same study on a couple of Western countries like Germany og GB. Im not saying that their numbers are wrong but to see if the method is usefull.

@gojimoji9085

Жыл бұрын

Their (Germany's) numbers are wrong you're correct to have your suspicions

@Homer-OJ-Simpson

Жыл бұрын

Most likely in the study. But most importantly, it’s measuring the change in those indicators. X number of flights doesn’t tell you much but if you knew they did Y before, you can measure the change

@thomasherrin6798

Жыл бұрын

The majority of Western Countries provide full data which can be checked, the Autocrats don't, obviously the Autocrats tell the absolute truth and there is no need to question their data, Blimey Charlie!?!

You’re the man Joeri!!!❤

Interesting conversation! I like the idea of having different indicators for GDP as a sanity check but also I could imagine this approach could also be a way to detect the unofficial economy of a country? As in, the illegal or informal?

@a.bastianwiik5592

11 ай бұрын

To some degree this is already done. Illegal drugs are often monitored by testing sewage or looking at water and electricity consumption as proxy for production.

Why use imports as a proxy given the changing sanctions regimes?

20:11 Point Of Sale Terminal - in this case the literal card payment terminal for card or contactless payment.

Last year the main hit was in the non-energy sector. This year the main decrease will be in the energy sector: oil (lower prices), gas (much lower export) and coal (lower prices). Since the energy sector is generating most of the wealth then its poor results will impact the rest of the economy.

Super! Would be fun to hear your thoughts on the Swedish Krona and its future

According to the estimates (2021) of the IMF and the World Bank, the Russian economy (GDP at PPP) is the sixth largest in the world.

People have had to do similar things with the PRC for years. Very cool and important work.

@buravan1512

Жыл бұрын

this is INFORMATION WAR, if you were familiar with this lady activities, you would understand the main reason behind her work and what she's trying to achieve.

@dan_taninecz_geopol

Жыл бұрын

@@buravan1512 The "Z" in your profile pic makes me suspect you are perhaps not the most objective source on the subject.

@OlleSundblad

11 ай бұрын

​@@buravan1512please inform us what she is trying to achieve. If she is she is exaggerating the numbers and Russia is not being hurt by the sanctions this is good news for the Kreml. If the numbers are accurate then sanctions are working and we should definitely continue/increase them. So please explain this to us uneducated (by Russian propaganda)

Still could have added more about what was on the y-axiis. Yes, understand PCA and how it could be used, but still do not understand the scale involved. Since PCA reflect scale and units of measurements in their components, are we talking about reasonable measurements like percentage points ? Something else ?

It's uncanny how much they all correlate. I believe her analysis.

Great video!

It's expected that during a war the civilian economy of any country directly involved cannot fare as well as during peace time. History can give us many a fair hint at that.

As far as I know, calculations by POS terminal information have the issue of showing only transaction, instead of showing flow of goods. For many years Russian retail has had two problems: purchases are shrinking and retailers had to shrunk their rented area, to save money. In small sops people prefer to buy bit pre-packed food, but one they can control amount, to save money, thus there is s pasta sold by weight, which is unheard of in the West - small retailers by macaroni / pasta in large sacks and sell those.

@user-fl5vw9ol5y

11 ай бұрын

Pasta sold by weight? I live in Russia and I've never heard of something like that...

where i can see such data , i mean the import and export , is it the news or there is something else ? 03:16

In case someone wonders PoS -> Point of Sale

@nvelsen1975

Жыл бұрын

That's not what I think of when I hear POS. 😆

This channel is the real deal

Traffic is also a significant (if not a dominant) contributor to NO2 pollution.

@PikachooUpYou

Жыл бұрын

What's interesting is they do not take into account that Russia has been transitioning its cities to greener sources of transport with Chinas help in the past year or so. They have added more public transport options, e-scooter hire, green car share hiring, and more. Yes they have had a period of restructuring including their automotive industry, but it won't be long before thats fully up and generating green sources of transport GDP. The whole conclusion is based on their economy continuing the same decline, instead of realising that there will have been a down period before they re-source and restructure. It's all western wishful thinking IMO.

@nvelsen1975

Жыл бұрын

@@PikachooUpYou Ah yes, Lada restructuring to produce revolutionary new Russian vehicles without ABS, seatbelt tensioners or airbags. 😆 It's good that you brought up wishful thinking Sergei, because you do a lot of it. Car sales down by some 87% in Russia, by the way.

@buravan1512

Жыл бұрын

who cares about pollution outside EU?

Really very interesting

The comments section surprised me lol. Great work as always

Do you mean gdp built with activity of lawyer or built with industries ?

Very interesting!

please use captions\

Does she say what her Numbers are in Billion Dollars for the Russian GDP in 2022 and her predictions for the Russian GDP in 2023?

Will Hanna being publishing a blog post each month with alternative domestic activity tracker updates? I'd like to check it each month so see if the Russian economy is collapsing (fingers crossed). The interview is 3 June, but relates to a post done on 14 Feb, and used data up to 6 Feb. There should be another four months' worth of data available by now... It will be interesting to see how the alternative domestic activity tracker compares to the one based on Rosstat data for the period from Mar '23 onwards. Russian budget for 2023 had a projected deficit that apparently was already reached by the end of Q1, and that is when there seems to have been an increased restriction on publication of official statistics (and possibly some 'creative accounting' being used -- I think the March monthly figure included some 'adjustments' to tax revenue that included some things that were not normally included, and there were also some changes to company tax calculations to make them based on 'normal' profitability (ie if oil price cap wasn't imposed etc) rather than actual profitability (which is essentially a massive increase in actual tax rates in effect). So, it seems that efforts by the state to 'cook the books' and report inflated GDP numbers might have increased significantly from Mar/Apr '23 onwards -- so this should show up as a major divergence between the official Rosstat figures and what this alternative tracker indicates during the rest of 2023.

Are there any more recent data? It ends in January and we are in June.

Surely even in a war GDP makes sense ? I would normally expect some shift in wealth around the economy and also inflation; net I would think the average person sees higher prices across the board as the war adds demand to the economy wo any additional supply capacity. All other things being equal.

Very nice 😊

You should edit the video so the sound starts when the video starts.

Cannot open the stream. Anyone know the reason....? Thanks.

@kems3743

Жыл бұрын

propaganda my brother that's why!

POS terminal: Point of Sale. To be fair, Figure 1 does show some error in favor of RUS in Jan 2019 where official monthlyl stats are higher than hanna's index tracker during a period when she said she had faith in GDP stats. So there's some slippage inherent in Hanna's tracker. It is ONE look at GDP surely, but perhaps not the complete picture and the errors she makes a point of emphasizing post Feb 2022 are well within the margin of error.? It's interesting the industrial sector shows an ~8 month lag for sanctions to bite.

Will be interesting to see what happens when their war chest runs out later this year. They are running a deep deficit for now and can maybe continue for a few more months with that.

@spartanrating8210

Жыл бұрын

Then the approach to Gun manufacturers will be changed, it's real! The transition to the military rails, everyone will get a salary, but there will be no business component I will tell you, as a resident of Russia, that there is a lot of dirty money here, in the MIC, things are bought ten times more expensive than they really are. It's all regulated artificially and it can really be changed. On the other hand, I see a surge in industry! We have, in this year and a half, a tremendous need for people who are needed in factories, just tremendous! Wages are reaching the European average, which has never been seen, not in all professions, not in all factories, but the struggle for workers is enormous.

One thing that is missing is how well this methodology applies to countries where we can more or less trust in official data. EU countries, US, Japan, South Korea.

@Homer-OJ-Simpson

Жыл бұрын

I imagine It’s in the study. If you didn’t see, he pinned the study. It would have been a good question

@jamesoo96571

Жыл бұрын

that is a really good point, indeed

@manichaean1888

Жыл бұрын

Do you think you can trust, let's say, Japan data with all their well known corporate frauds and scums.

@AL-wv8jx

Жыл бұрын

That would be other studies youd have to go to this paper and see what they cite. But people have been looking at alternative stuff for awhile.

If the economy is so bad in Russia, why isn’t it reflected and the purchasing power within Russia.? It appears they can get just about any western product. And everything seems to be fairly affordable compared to the United States.

Can you please make a similar video for other countries like Argentina? Much is said about Argentina's everlasting economical crises, but when looking at GDP figures things look very comparable to other prosperous South American countries.

🎉She is so extraordinarily beautiful!❤❤

shes giving me faith in the economy

I didn't know JF Gariepy did a economics podcast!

Like the idea but would appreciate a shorter version. Maybe in the description.

This analysis certainly seems logical. Sanctions reduce economic activity, but don't crush the economy. Businesses, consumers, and governments adapt. The exodus of young Russians due to the threat of mobilization must also be a factor for the contraction.

A simple exercise would be to apply the same "alternative" indicators to ANY other economy and see how well/bad it reflects the official stats. Trying to find an interpretation for those graphs without at least gauging how good the "blue" indicator is at predicting official numbers in any other economy is very "unacademic". I wish good luck to those "economists" poking around facilities of the military-industrial complex as if they were in peace time. Even the dwellers of Narnia would hang them as spies and for this conclusion I don't need proxy indicators.

@blue-pi2kt

11 ай бұрын

The alternative indicators are used to map figures before some event which are still available after some event has happened to approximate information you no longer can access. It will not provide any information on military expenditure from one disconnected point in time to another disconnected point in time.

Host is asking excellent scientific questions! Work also important and interesting however I would address questions. Like satellite data reflecting pollution from heavy polluters, which are ...? While the author is trying to separate two types of economies. Another addition I would do add data from Asia and India cause it is where business activities were shifted. Anyhow: good job

@nattygsbord

Жыл бұрын

Russia is the 4th biggest carbon polluter in the world despite its small share of the worlds population. I have a track record of destroying the planet like no other country, take for example the Lake Karachay that are so radioactive that you die if you swim in it for 30 minues, or take the Chernobyl disaster, or the destruction of the Aral sea, or the destruction of the Kachovka dam, and the most city polluted with the highest levels of CO2 in the world is Cheliabinsk. If a rain of asteroids came down and wiped our russia from existence tomorow would the world be a much better place.

@alexhoneydealer1798

Жыл бұрын

@@nattygsbord The point is they use sattelites to identify manufacturing activities. As you have hear from the video they use detection if NO2. But it is produced by specific industries. You've mentioning CO2. This is different gas from NO2. Caws , ships, humans produce a lot of these. Current fire in Canada produces lots of CO2. All New York, NJ, PA in smog at this moment. But she is talking about NO2.

@alexhoneydealer1798

Жыл бұрын

@@nattygsbord kzread.info/dash/bejne/mpakuMahmb2bg5s.html That what creates CO2. Chemistry 101

@alispeed5095

Жыл бұрын

@@nattygsbord how is chernobyl russias fault? Seems like many people are stuck in the past. Is the current US a bunch of slavers? after all they were back in the day? Chernobyl is something from the USSR, russia and USSR are different. >If a rain of asteroids came down and wiped our russia from existence tomorow would the world be a much better place. And this is what shows your true colors. A very nasty individual. But we dont need to wish for fantastic things like asteroids, instead urge your leaders to escalate the ukraine war further. The end game is nuclear war where Russia is destroyed as well as your country. You will get your desire then :)

I was curious if a similar analysis could be applied to China to get a better understanding of China's true GDP numbers as well...

@kev792

Жыл бұрын

Yea. Im very interested in this as well. Maybe he could bring somebody on who is familiar with China's numbers and data.

@jonathanjacob5453

Жыл бұрын

And for Germany?

@Jakob_DK

11 ай бұрын

The early US satellites were made by Perkin Elmer who also makes spectrometers that measure eg FTiR and NOx concentrations in gas and find secret facilities. So yes it has probably been done for years.

@Jakob_DK

11 ай бұрын

@@jonathanjacob5453 For Germany Diesel-gate would be visible :-)

It's good to know that people in Russia are doing well. Thanks for this video, it would always be great to hear about the Australian economy.

Man, the people in the comments are lacking in the upstairs department...

@PutXi_Whipped

Жыл бұрын

No, 🫵🏼

@Ilamarea

Жыл бұрын

@@PutXi_Whipped Yep. "People" like you is what I'm talking about.

@robertagren9360

Жыл бұрын

I'm going to google baby powder and you can't stop me

38:27 the data shows ~2.1% contraction vs ~0.3 in the official data. How is that "a bit poorer" and not "a lot worse"?

@adamesd3699

Жыл бұрын

For a country in a major war and facing some of the toughest sanctions in history, this result compared to initial expectations counts as “a bit poorer.” I remember expectations of-25% GDP in the first weeks of the war.

@AlbionArg

Жыл бұрын

@@adamesd3699 i agree that it's doing far better than expectations, but it's still doing far worse than what they officially report. Both things can be true at the same time.

@knudskoubo1090

Жыл бұрын

@@AlbionArg As stated in the video the difference could be war production. You do not know if the official numbers are incorrect based of Hanna's research. As she also states it is an indicator and not an exact measuring tool

@emildavidsen1404

Жыл бұрын

​​@@knudskoubo1090 war production contributes positively to a gdp since you're still producing something. This is where economics and "real world" departs alitte from each other.

@Mutineer9

Жыл бұрын

@@emildavidsen1404 War production contribute to GDP far more in USA then Russia. In USA all war industries are private, so all goverment pay them included into gdp. In russia majority of war industries state own. So, only money exchange with private companies and wages go to gdp. There no profit.

I wonder just what is being exported by Russia now that non-oil revenues is almost double the oil revenues. That a lot of gold and diamonds being sold! The numbers just don’t make sense given the huge slump of Russian weapons.

Good job getting home sales market info. Good job on the consumer spending survey.Likewise industrial air pollution. Shiploadings and boxcar stats. Car registration numbers. Crop estimates from satellite mapping. While Putin is financially ignorant, his central banker is very sharp. Her stats should not be trusted.

Fascinating analysis - Hanna should be working for CNN - excellent presenter

@TheClanAdventures

Жыл бұрын

Why would she taint her reputation by working for CNN.

Strange that you gave high credibility to Luis Martinez' study on authoritarian GDP exaggeration, but this talk seems to conclude that there isn't much of a discrepancy between stated GDP and actual GDP in Russia, which is arguably more authoritarian and less accountable than China.

@michaelgothenburg364

Жыл бұрын

@@Rashid I disagree with your last statement. Russia is not more authoritarian. China is much more subtle, that's their style, they don't do things openly, but they are arguably MORE authoritarian than Russia. I have been working with the Chinese over the last 25 years and they all agree with this, if they open up. Don't get fooled by the Chinese government's subtle ways, it is a big mistake!

@ralphmorgan6130

Жыл бұрын

@@michaelgothenburg364 It is probably also dependent on how well the economy is doing -- even an authoritarian regime might be happy to have accurate statistics being tracked and published when things are going OK -- the decision/pressure to 'cook the books' or make some data restricted would only arise when the economy started to struggle. So, Russia would have been quite happy to publish accurate data on their energy and resource export dependent economy when resource prices were high and the economy was doing OK (and having reliable official statistics helps legitimize a regime), but would be motivated to obfuscate if reality starts to deviate from the image they wish to project. Same goes for China. The biggest difference between authoritarian and free/open economies reporting on their performance would become apparent during down-turns. One would expect the free/open economies to continue to publish accurate figures when things are going badly (leaving the politicians trying to 'spin' the bad news), whereas the authoritarian regimes would be able to 'adjust' the information flow if wanted (they may just blame some external factors instead -- so manipulating the data may not be the first choice even in authoritarian states).

@michaelgothenburg364

Жыл бұрын

@@ralphmorgan6130 That's only finance. If it didn't suit China's (and Russia's) long term goal to do what you say, they wouldn't do it, especially China. That's what authoritarian regimes do. I haven't studied Russia that much, I don't find them important enough. But China is very important for our future. Everybody knows that China's GDP figures are grossly overstated but no one formally put it down on paper. China knows and uses this weakness in democracy just as they know that democracies cannot act without popular support, hence their subtle approach for years. Democracies cannot act until it becomes obvious. We should not take the Chinese for stupid, they are not. Say China started to exaggerate gross GPD with 1.5% when their economy had a bit of a downturn once 25 years ago. Next year, the economy does 1.5% better. Expectations are higher and a lower than expected increase is a failure. 1.5% for 25 years is 45%. 45% exaggerated GDP is not much actually, less than 1.5% for 25 years. A number easy to believe IMHO

@zapfanzapfan

Жыл бұрын

This only measures changes in GDP/economic activity, it doesn't measure absolutes or the trend for 20-ish years like the light pollution study did.

20:30 - POS = Point Of Sale Pretty much the place where you pay your stuff in a store

Please make vid on Pakistan 🇵🇰 economy. If you hear the finance minister he keeps saying every week the worst is over. There's hyperinflation and ban on imports due to lack of dollar reserves. My parents seriously consider sending me abroad before the country implodes economically.

👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

This comment section... PhD candidates are pretty knowledgeable in their subject so I have no issue with her credentials. Also, this is a discussion with and she's been vetted by Joeri? Joeri has already discussed using alternative ways to estimate China's GDP so I don't see how this is different.

@MoneyMacro

Жыл бұрын

I also don't think it's a very strong argument. The research was done together with a senior ECB economist. Furthermore, PhD candidate work is always checked by 2 senior professors at the University of Groningen.

@matthewdrews

Жыл бұрын

Not only that, but the counter-responses aren't backed up by data suggesting otherwise. Publish the data and compare it to all governments. If it fits the current economic indicators for other countries it should be able to model the Russian economy as well.

@ArawnOfAnnwn

Жыл бұрын

"using alternative ways to estimate China's GDP" - those have also been doubted fyi. They're not accepted ways, just interesting alternatives to consider. Even the author of that paper said it should be taken with a grain of salt. This isn't just about Russia, it extends to those China figures too

@ArawnOfAnnwn

Жыл бұрын

@@matthewdrews "but the counter-responses aren't backed up by data suggesting otherwise" - funnily enough this analysis hasn't cross-checked globally to establish its credibility, it's solely on Russia. Also we're not the ones making the claim here. The counter to this is the official data already available, which is simply being dismissed in favor of such alternatives.

@yglnvbrs

Жыл бұрын

Your comment literally says "respect the authority" and nothing more.

The problem here is the lack data on Russian Reserve burn rate. Russia is paying for all of its military production with reserves. The Loss of Human capital: The war Losses and the over 1Million+ that have fled the country and continue to do so. The Russian economy will be a disaster by Jan 2024. The Russian Ruble is dropping steadily now.

@paulmwai5988

Жыл бұрын

Actually Russians are returning home in Large numbers as life in the west starts to bite everything west is heading a steep downfall

@matthewhuszarik4173

Жыл бұрын

There are also a lot of Russian men hidden in Russia. That aren’t accounted for.

@spartanrating8210

Жыл бұрын

Do you know how the stabilization system in the Car works? Look at the chart. They regulate costs in this way. Look at the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and you will understand something, I hope.

@brookman2923

11 ай бұрын

For sure not even a million fled a coutry there was not such capacity in transportation then … and some already returned

Economic coercion en masse.

Military production facilities are not that secret on a large scale (they are mostly in the same spot as they were in USSR days), for example most of the tanks are produced in one facility in Nizhny Tagil - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uralvagonzavod But I would guess it's really hard to figure out how much they specifically contribute to pollution, like my wild guess would be that steel production contributes more than assembly line. But I really don't know

@phil__K

Жыл бұрын

Ofc military production also goes far beyond just tanks. We probably dont have public information on where Sahed drones are manufactured in Russia for example

Even of GdP stays constant its worse for russian inhabitants. Ammo and tanks that blow up don't have any Multiplikator effect they just disappear so the cake left for Russians is shrinking

@iMetmor

Жыл бұрын

Military production creates one of the biggest multiplier effects as it must rely on domestic industry in all of its aspects.

@mkvenner2

Жыл бұрын

The only places in Russia that got the economic cake are St Petersburg and especially Moscow.

@iMetmor

Жыл бұрын

@@mkvenner2 That's a very outdated view. Sure Moscow and St. Pete are the richest cities, but if you go and see the rest of the country now, its good state will surprise you.

@RipMachine1

Жыл бұрын

@@iMetmor i did live in Russia for a while in Kazan and Izhevsk most of the time, while dating my wife, and no not impressed still dirt poor, Kazan maybe not so much

@RipMachine1

Жыл бұрын

@@iMetmor because nothing improves a living standard of a country like destroyed military equipment and crippled and dead young men

Basically you haven't got enough data to draw much conclusion, except to guess the most obvious, but not necessarily correct, reasons from very little data.

Pos “Point of Service terminal” Like a credit card swiper

@B1gLupu

Жыл бұрын

*Sales

@jwz2333

Жыл бұрын

@@B1gLupu yup you’re right my error thanks

Oh my. He is really pushing back. I am shocked.

Should have noted that she is Ukrainian and a politologist by education. Of course, an economy cannot be really booming during a war. But there is an interesting question for any real economist - what happens with all the 100s of billions of USD that used to land in the West? Is any of it invested now inside Russia? It has to go somewhere.

Well, can one trust EUROSTAT/ ECB data?

13:55 why didnt she use an asian ip via VPN ?

What about Ukraine economy? This is what would be really interesting to hear from Hanna! On Russian economy there are many economists and analysts who can give much much deeper picture as well as prognosis. For example, Gregoriy Beglaryan, Alexander Orlov (Arbat capital), Dmitry Golybovich (Arbat capital), Andrei Movchan and many more. These are people who could give a detailed picture, if this is the target. Actually information given here was quite superficial.

@thomasherrin6798

Жыл бұрын

The Ukraine economy can be majorly funded by the West, thinking about it so could Russia's, it's not big!?!

@ChucksSEADnDEAD

Жыл бұрын

What about it? The war ends faster by damaging the Russian economy than the Ukrainian one. We're more interested in the effects of sanctions than the effects of missile strikes and population displacement. We already know Russia is causing pain to Ukrainians. The important question is, how much pain can we inflict on Russia without firing a single shell at them?

@spartanrating8210

Жыл бұрын

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD Oh bro, don't be upset about the future. Many surprises await you. And in your economy, and in the desire to destroy our economy. While you are trying to damage a country that has enough resources for everything except human resources, I won’t hide it here, your green paper is going to hell) He decided to inflict damage on a country that has been under Anglo-Saxon sanctions all his life) Funny bastard)

@wcg66

Жыл бұрын

The answer is easy, the Ukrainian economy has been devastated. The difference is, Ukraine will get aid to rebuild. Russia will collapse.

@Rusu421

11 ай бұрын

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD "without firing a single shell at them" What do you think about whose ammo Ukraine uses? LOL

10 minutes in ... No data yet. I thought young gen was efficient

Don’t Russians use Yandex more than Google?

This guy looks like the Tom yorke of economics

Workers? In WW2, most men were swept into the army. Replaced by Rosie the Riveter, and her fellow women. So look at demographic trends?

It doesn't take an economist to know that dramatic reduction in petro revenue combined with dramatic increase in war expenses results in a shit economy, GDP or otherwise. At least these alternative indicators offer truthfulness that is lacking in the politics.

Russia could have an infinite GDP. They can just print roubles. Hand everyone free money. Boom GDP goes to whatever number they wish. This is why it is also important to see how the real economic crisis is actually happening for Russia. Real Russians are dealing with inflation, currency loss, lack of consumer goods, they aren't spending, and job losses. The sanctions are working.

Do 100 rokov keď sa nič nevymisli taky ohne do vyšky 10 km

As a nonacademic economist and later managing an investment portfolio. I learned in the real world that official statistics are very dirty. Especially my own USA. Making real world decisions meant working up alternative information.

@TheShaitt

Жыл бұрын

I’m a nonacademic brain surgeon super fun work!

@cavaradossi7761

Жыл бұрын

If USA stats are "dirty", Russian stats must be a landfill...

Very interesting approach to attempt get a picture of a working economy from different perspective. I'm not an economist but an engineer and I would have like to eventually see the sensitivity of the results to variations in data collected (or estimate of possible error margin of results if you prefer) , since the word "assumptions" has been extensively used throughout the video. Also to verify the consistency of a model it would be interesting to see if it is possible to make a prediction of future behavior, and later validate (or not) the model. Interesting in any case, although I would not trust more this perspective than the original official figures since after all it is also more comparable with other countries published GDPs (more or less) while this one not. And finally, GDP itself doesn't reflect to me general health of economies, at purchase power parity looks more concrete and "real" to me. And to finish my scepticism if Russia or China figures cannot be trusted, why should the European or American figures be ?? Anywaty good job.

Russia's ECONOMY is doing well. Concentrate on E.U's GDP

Conclusions can only be as good as the assumptions. I think that most of the indicators from the Russian institutions pre invasion are accurate. But at some point after the invasion, accurate indicators were replaced with those that conformed to the narrative Putin wanted to tell. We cannot trust the post invasion numbers of any Russian institutions, as they are an extension of the state. We cannot use Russian imports as a tool to measure GDP, as we don’t know how much Russia is importing. Anyone skirting sanctions is not going to report how much they made. Furthermore, China is mostly a black box. They have laws against sharing economic data, so we don’t know their trade with Russia. The reduction of air traffic in Russia indicates that fewer planes are flying. But keep in mind that Russia is under heavy sanctions and can’t produce most of the parts for said planes. There are physical limitations here. The reduction in air pollution does seem right. I see two main sources of air pollution, cars and industrial production. Russia is at war, they’re a massive exporter of energy, and I don’t think their power plants have shut down due to shoddy maintenance. Yet. As such, industrial pollution is probably near or above pre war levels. But car pollution is definitely down. Over a million young men have fled the country, a few hundred thousand have been mobilized, and those left are poorer than they were before. From my perspective, Macro is pointing out the many flaws in the way she calculated her numbers while still being polite. He asked the right questions. The bottom line is that we don’t know Russia’s exact GDP.

@spartanrating8210

Жыл бұрын

I just watched an interview with an Aeroflot representative recently who was asked about parts and service - he just smiled and said "do you really believe that they will throw this market out?" Everything is serviced, everything is done in the dark. Corruption rules the world, no matter how anyone feeds themselves with illusions. Boin and Airbus will not let go of their 500 aircraft just like that.

@brookman2923

11 ай бұрын

She is a bit inaccurate yes air traffic is less then predicted,but it less then a year before , but and it’s the same as before Covid year …

@mnemonicpie

10 ай бұрын

Are we really don't know the exact Russian GDP? These guys said that the Russian economic data was accurate all the time before the war.

@brookman2923

10 ай бұрын

@@mnemonicpie it was more or less accurate,but western gdp included some illegal business,which Russian GDP doesn’t include,The internationally agreed guidelines for national economic accounts, System of National Accounts 2008 (hereafter referred to as SNA 2008) (United Nations Statistics Division 2008), explicitly recommend that illegal market activity should be included in the measured economy. This recommendation is not currently implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) because of challenges inherent in identifying suitable source data and differences in conceptual traditions (Carson 1984a and 1984b). This paper explores how tracking illegal activity in the U.S. national economic accounts might impact measured nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), measured real GDP, measured productivity, and other economic statistics. In 2017, the level of nominal GDP rises by more than 1 percent when illegal activity is tracked in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). By category, illegal drugs add $111 billion to measured nominal GDP in 2017, illegal prostitution adds $10 billion, illegal gambling adds $4 billion, and theft from businesses adds $109 billion. Real GDP and productivity growth also change. Real illegal output grew faster than overall GDP during the 1970s. As a result, tracking illegal activity ameliorates the 1970s slowdown in measured productivity growth and partially ameliorates the post‐2008 slowdown in measured productivity growth.

@brookman2923

10 ай бұрын

Especially how they count PPP! I ride a tram or a bus here for 24 rubles( 25 cents )one ride in New York is 3 $ so how do they count ??? And many things are the same… also I know even Russian statistics doesn’t include your harvest from private gardens ( or dacha) but it’s a big amount of vegetables fruits and berries as 60 million’s Russians has garden land…

Peer review or GTFO. For one, try those "alternative indicators" on another country and show us what they do there.

The words "disclose" means exactly the opposite, of what she thinks it means. Apart from that nice presentation.

Algorithm

Excellent Work Hannah. Very smart in your use of alternative/ experimental variable data used for indicator's. And - Slava Ukrani. Youre an asset to your country and youve done it and us proud!

assumptions on assumptions and lack of localisation