The Fed said "higher for longer" there will be no reduction in rates unless there are massive job losses. Both scenarios are not good for real estate no matter how you spin it.

Jon, I have really enjoyed your content and felt that you were on the money in your analysis. However, now that you are going down the crash lane, it almost appears that you are pivoting for clicks. The bottom line, inventory is a key driver in today's market and it is paired up against high rates/low demand, the other key driver. Higher rates does not mean that we are headed for a crash. It is too much pressure on affordability and prices should ease from now through the end of the year. Yet, in November, the inventory will fall again, and 2024 will start with very few homes, placing upward pressure on pricing and curtailing the drops from the holidays.

@thejonschwartz

8 ай бұрын

I agree with you and get to the conclusion by the video’s end. I should probably quit front-loading my videos with so much crash sensationalism. I am angling for clicks. Hmmmm… I’m trying to find the right balance between attracting general viewers with sensationalism, then quickly pivoting in the video to rational analysis. Thanks for the input as I try to figure this out!

Here's some advice Jon: you have an entire sector of viewers who immediately turn off your video the first time you drop the F bomb. Be a professional.

@thejonschwartz

8 ай бұрын

I’m sorry that I offended you, Wendy!

ALWAYS QUALITY THAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT--- AVERAGE --and average does not work in AMERICA. I really respect you for recognizing this.

jebaited. I actually thought you thought there was a real crash. E.g. 15-20% price drop. But yeah, a winter price drop mirroring 2022 is definitely coming for us. And it will get worse if the Fed doesnt lower rates.

@NicoNocero-kc4jr

9 ай бұрын

They are not going to lower the rates.

7:23 copium - prices have to fall enough where that monthly mortgage payment DOES fall below $2500. its so over.

@thejonschwartz

8 ай бұрын

Why?

@ab8817

8 ай бұрын

@@thejonschwartz really? affordability is a major variable at pushing sales to lower and lower levels, then prices will keep following. if prices must fall to even push the needle on sales, and interest rates stay the same, then the mortgage payment will follow. someone buys a house in 2020-21 for $300k, they put it on the market for $500k. no one is buying that house at these rates, and buyers are asking why should the sellers be awarded $200k to have lived in the house for only 2 years? the bubble will deflate not at the same pace as it inflated, but the shock will be great. many new RE agents and realtors, "REI gurus" are all hanging it up. smart money already got out at the top in 2022.

@thejonschwartz

8 ай бұрын

Your logic makes sense, but it doesn’t reflect reality. NAR just reported that sales volume hit a new low - under 4M annually - while home prices are up 2.8% YoY. Your anecdote about buyers not wanting to “reward” sellers - I’m sure you feel that way, but months supply is still in “seller’s market” territory. And as for the smart money - Warren Buffett put $800M into homebuilder stock in 2023. You think he made a mistake?

@ab8817

8 ай бұрын

@@thejonschwartz what i'm saying makes sense, and does reflect reality. denying a housing downturn is not reflective of reality. you yourself denied any signs of a downturn until maybe 3 weeks ago, and would move goalposts to say sales are up in very particular metrics. so lets not be too quick to think i'm the one here disconnected from reality. i'm not terribly concerned with individual billionaire investors' moves. but you want my opinion- yeah i guess its a "mistake" but hes an investor, he's not a salary man losing all his money at the casino. investment is a risk, especially at his level, and he has the financial security to take big risks. it's most likely part of a larger strategy. if anything, he is betting on homebuilders now to kick up into overdrive to finish their starts and then pull away as the market is obviously going south now. or, housing starts will ramp up more as a strategy to drive down overall prices by injecting more supply. either way, prices will be coming down. its entropy, and inevitable. it happens dude. party doesn't go on forever. a lot of would-be buyers feel this way - they do not want to just hand over someone $200k for just scooping up a house 2 years ago and then sitting on it. the quality of a lot of flips is horrible and lazy with little to sometimes zero work put in. by now, they are seen as obvious predatory cash grabs, and buyers aren't falling for it. same thing happened in the 2000s, some people were caught holding the bag when the music stops. again, investment is a risk, that's how that works. most would-be buyers are just looking to purchase a primary residence. post all the copium you want but there's barely an audience for it anymore. if you want views stick to crash bro adjacent content (for now).

I'm looking in the San Fernando Valley and can't even find anything. Prices are up 50% and won't come down despite higher rates. There is such a lack of supply that most of the houses I see hitting the market are really run down and need a lot of fixing as well. I'm not sure what to do. If rates go down prices could go up even further and there is such a backlog of homebuyers. Homeowners came up like crazy these past years as all this money printing drove up the value of those homes.

@thejonschwartz

6 ай бұрын

What's your budget?

@Jose-sy1je

6 ай бұрын

@@thejonschwartz Well, we would in the San Fernando Valley. I could go up to 1.3 . We are looking for something that already has an ADU or has enough land to build one. 1.3 is max for me, so the house on the property would have to be in good condition. I found a property before, but the backyard had a pretty steep slope and wasn't sure if that would have been doable.

@thejonschwartz

6 ай бұрын

@Jose-sy1je Where in the Valley are looking? I’m definitely finding duplexes and house + ADU’s for under $1.3M - just not in Sherman Oaks!

@Jose-sy1je

6 ай бұрын

@@thejonschwartz Northridge, Chatsworth, Porter Ranch, etc.

@thejonschwartz

6 ай бұрын

@@Jose-sy1je Ah... Yes, those neighborhoods will have smaller lots (on affordable homes) and hardly any multifamily properties. Still, just looking around, I see a few options. Are you working with an agent?

Smash Bros from Nintendo has always been superior to Crash Bros on KZread. It's not even close.

@thejonschwartz

8 ай бұрын

Agree! 😆😆😆

My only concern is that, I personally, don't see rates getting below 7% consistently until 2025 at best. I can't see the Feds cutting interest rates in 2024. At the end of the day though, unless unemployment hit double digits, which they won't (too many vehicles to make extra money now w/ the smart phone and social media), there won't be a crash. We're not seeing pre pandemic prices again.

@thejonschwartz

9 ай бұрын

I could see the Fed cutting sooner than later if the 10-Year Treasury Yield stays elevated. It bounced up on last week's good jobs numbers. If inflation continues to recede, the jobs market doesn't collapse, and bond yields stay high, I could see the Fed cutting rates earlier than later.

@scottwolf497

9 ай бұрын

No, they'll just hyperinflate the USD. And, by the time you realize that your fiat gains are strictly in nominal terms, POOF! Ur bankrupt-like magic. Yet, ur protfolio will be up 1000s of %!! Oh,the irony.

@thejonschwartz

9 ай бұрын

@@scottwolf497 I don't get it, though. If my assets inflate along with the currency, how do I end up bankrupt? It sounds like you're saying the assets I own are an excellent hedge (and I agree!).

@fourthbeegee

8 ай бұрын

​@@scottwolf497That's not how a monetary sovereign currency works

@scottwolf497

8 ай бұрын

AAAAAH, yes it is. There is NO market right now. We are running over $2T yearly deficits, and have added half a trillion in debt just since Sept 15, the day we breached $33T in total debt. The FED MUST BUY LARGE CAP STOCKS and the UST market every single day just to keep this Ponzi Scheme afloat. That is highly inflationary and will lead to a melt-up crash. You can dabble in this rigged casino, but, mark my words, there will be another flash flag. The entire world is printing their currencies into oblivion-Euro, Yen,Yuan, $USD, Swiss Franc. IT IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TIMES WE'RE LIVING IN. Hope and pray you have a plan for catastrophe. 2024-25 will be historical and NOT in a good way. God Bless.

You are not talking into consideration the people that would be compelled to sell fue to deterioration of economic environment.

@thejonschwartz

9 ай бұрын

I think I am. The deterioration of the economic environment itself doesn't compel anyone to sell. People don't sell their homes to become homeless or pay inflated rental prices or buy another house at double the interest rate. People sell their homes when they lose their jobs and have no other option. And the jobs market is currently healthy as all heck. When unemployment gets to even 4%, we can start worrying about future job losses.

Everyone this is starting to happen in my markets. It’s getting worrisome as I see it occur all around me more inventory is coming online sellers are actually needing to sell ocean is increasing the sessions are increasing just a matter of time now.

@fourthbeegee

8 ай бұрын

what's a matter of time?

Love the data driven analysis. Hoping for a mini crash this winter.

Crash bro. LOL.

A few months ago, you dedicated an entire video to one of MY COMMENTS. I only happened to stumble across it very recently. You called me a "Nick Gerli acolyte" if I recall, and likened me to being an ant that had its brain infect by a mold spore. It was so far after the fact I happened to cross that video that I never bothered responding to it directly, but in short: I disagreed with your assessment then, I disagreed with probably 80%+ of your analysis and your botched recap of what you thought I was saying regarding M2 and the strength of the dollar, and ultimately here we are 4 months later and you're making videos like this one (and others like this one, too, in the recent past). For the record, I follow many people on KZread, and in print media online, and Nick Gerli is ONE PERSON of probably 10 to 15 experts that I follow. I am not a Nick Gerli acolyte as you put it, but I do respect his opinion. You know what makes me respect it even more? When multiple other people that I also think are very smart are saying the exact same thing. Sure, it's possible they could all be wrong, but it's more likely that they are closer to being right. Here we are, and now you are starting to sing the same tune. I have nearly 30 years experience in the real estate business (primarily finance) as well, so I have personal knowledge and understanding regarding the real estate market. So, in other words, regarding this current video, all of the guys that have been warning about high mortgage rates saying that it will drive prices lower, ARE CORRECT, yet you've been attacking them for saying exactly that? In short, you are late to the party, and the price drops that they have been warning people about are coming to fruition. So Mr. Sunshine (you) that has been telling us for at least the last few month to ignore the "fear mongering" is now admitting prices will "crash" this winter. Absolute buffoonery on your part. This is why after all this time you have only 4K subscribers (and I'm not one of them). Acting like a smug prick, but being RIGHT might get you somewhere. Acting like a smug prick and being WRONG will get you NOWHERE. My suggestion is that you: 1) Start being right more often, 2) Stop attacking others that have been right more than you, 3) Stop acting like a smug prick. Follow this advice and you may actually see your subscriber base grow.

@thejonschwartz

8 ай бұрын

Ken! Great to hear from you! I'm so glad you saw your video after all these months. Like I say in the video, I'm not attacking you, but your baseless arguments. So, tell me more clearly your argument about M2 and the strength of the dollar. That's the line of argument that I really don't grasp well.

@kenadler777

8 ай бұрын

@@thejonschwartz Jon - first of all - I understand (and understood) that you are not attacking me. I wasn't offended the least bit then, or now. What I do find a bit irritating in your current response is that you are employing the use of a word that the mainstream media seems to love and abuse: "baseless". So anyone that disagrees with you must have a "baseless" rationale, right? You're logical and nearly perfect, therefore anyone that deviates from your opinion clearly isn't, ergo, their claims are baseless. It's certainly true that baseless claims exist, but I don't believe you, me, or Nick Gerli's claims or analysis are baseless, and to use that word just unfairly discounts and smears someone else's valid thoughts on a matter. I did not find your video from a few months ago to be baseless in the least. What I did find is that most of your arguments, in my opinion, are either misinterpreting data or omitting additional factors that I thought should have been included. None of that is baseless simply because I disagree with you. It may lead to incorrect conclusions on your part, but saying something is baseless is just discounting the other person as just babbling complete nonsense. I also believe you opened that video calling Nick Gerli a "dummy." Look, if the guy is a dummy, so be it. I don't care about the label as long as it's true. But the fact is, Nick Gerli is not a dummy, and neither are you. Two intelligent people looking at various data sets may draw different conclusions based on rational reasons. To this point, you have also suggested that Nick is a liar, and to that I would refer to my prior sentence as well. I don't know Nick, and I'm not his "minion" either. This is just my opinion based upon what I've seen thus far. So to address the M2 money supply question, the first thing you said was that my "Follow the Money" was a meaningless catchphrase. That comment never should been segregated from what followed but you labeled it #7 of my points. That was not a stand-alone comment. That was a lead-in to what you labeled as #9, so when I made that comment, I was referring to following the money supply which immediately was mentioned afterwards. (As a side note you labeled my Foreclosure comment #8, which was mentioned by you out of order. Not a big deal - just saying.) My original comment with the lead-in was: "FOLLOW THE MONEY. Money is relatively expensive these days, rates are on an overall uptrend, and the supply of MONEY is dropping meaning it's likely to get more expensive." Your comments began by calling me an "Anti-Fed type" and that I would argue that "printing more money causes inflation." Well, regardless whether I'm an Anti-Fed type or not, I stand by the comment that printing more money causes inflation. In fact, the traditional, textbook meaning of "inflation" as used in economics was specifically talking about an increase in money supply. Today, people conflate that word with "price inflation." So yes, I do believe the printing money (which is money creation that comes into existence via debt, i.e., new loans) does tend to lead to higher prices. Because prices rising is so consistent correlated with an increase in money supply, it's easy to understand why people do conflate the term and think it is one and the same. But really, the "cause" is an increase in money supply, and the "effect" is higher prices. Clearly they are related even if it isn't a perfect correlation due to other factors. Then you make a very odd, and incorrect assertion. You stated "These same types are arguing the opposite. That reducing the money supply will also make everything more expensive." No, I didn't say that, nor did I suggest that. I have no idea where you got this from, but it wasn't me. I don't know how you drew that conclusion but I'll state this to be clear: I don't believe that, I don't believe I stated that in any form, and in fact, I believe only the opposite of that, as stated previously. Continuing you said "At least Ken seems to be saying that reducing the money supply will make money more expensive. Which is a backwards way of saying that reducing the money supply will make money more valuable. Which means the same quantity of money can buy more goods. So an increase in the money supply leads to inflation and a decrease in the money supply has a deflationary effect. A reduction in the money supply is a good thing." Yes, this part of your summary is correct and I agree with it. "These guys just can't be happy," you conclude. Well, as I said, you were wildly off on your assessment about me arguing the opposite, so I'm assuming this comment stemmed from that misunderstanding. Regardless, it doesn't have anything to do with me being happy or not. The bigger point is lending has been getting crushed for the last year, before you even made that earlier video (I mentioned I deal with real estate finance in an earlier comment.) Lending is so reduced, and rates are now so high, that current debt is actually being paid off at a faster rate than new loans are being generated. So as that M2 money supply shrinks, that is representative of the destruction of dollars (debt repayment), and yes, that tends to make those dollars more valuable. The way that "more valuable" component manifests itself is in the form of lower prices. Your video, at the time, was bashing Nick at Reventure for claiming that prices were going lower. I was saying that the M2 money supply diving is a valid reason for price deflation to take place. Here we are, 4 or 5 months later, and it seems like you're now putting out videos about real estate prices declining. As a side note, back then, the Fed was stating that they were going to keep ratcheting up rates and they did exactly that. So I didn't need a crystal ball, and frankly, I didn't need Nick to tell me that either. In summary, rates were skyrocketing, lending was seizing up, and M2 money supply was plummeting while the Fed was promising to keep raising rates for months into the future. This was an absolute recipe for house prices dropping. Yes, I know there are other factors, too, like supply, and unemployment, but this comment is long enough already. The aforementioned factors are enough on their own to create a massive headwind against the ascension of real estate prices. One thing that I do want to say since I know you'll be reading this is that you showed Nick making a wrong prediction back in 2021 about a crash. What I will add in his defense regarding his incorrect prediction is that we never know when the government is going to step in with stimulus money. They had all kinds of COVID relief programs (some of which are still ongoing) and up until October a freeze on student loan payments. The average student loan payment is $400, FYI. Something like 43M Americans owe $1.7T in student loan debt, but now it's time to pay the piper. It all adds up. All of these things must be factored in and they do play a role in altering disposable cash and the ability to repay loans. Now you're talking about a "mini-crash" and plenty of other people - other than Nick - are talking about slowdowns and crashes, etc. Since you so gleefully pointed out that Nick was wrong in 2021, can we now look back and say perhaps you weren't right several months ago? I won't hold you to a standard of perfection. No one gets the markets right 100% of the time. But people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. I appreciated your analysis even though I didn't ultimately agree with most of it. It still was a good internal sounding board for me to reanalyze what my beliefs and understandings were at that time.

@jaydeeare285

8 ай бұрын

​@kenadler777 Please explain to me which part of Nick's video from June 2021 where he proclaimed that the "crash has officially started" was right. Please explain to me which part of Nick's tweet from December 2020 when he said "inventory will start surging soon!" was correct. Please point to all the "shadow inventory" (whatever that is) that's flooding the market. I'll wait.

@kenadler777

8 ай бұрын

@@jaydeeare285 Nick wasn't right at all. I wasn't saying he was right. I was saying the government can do things like freeze loan payment requirements and pump out monetary stimulus that can at least temporarily change the trajectory of a market. We forecast things based upon what we know. We don't really know when, or how much, the government will decide to step in and turn on the money pumps. I never addressed the shadow inventory claims, but I would say that is also related to my comments regarding stimulus. Just remember that the time frames you're talking about is when the whole COVID craze was going on, and the Federal and state governments were doing all kinds of financial maneuvers as people were losing their jobs, working from home with reduced hours, etc. We can have the best financial models that are right nearly 100% of the time, and they can suddenly be way off when there is a black swan event like COVID and subsequent abnormal monetary actions taken by the central bank. It wouldn't be a complete surprise to me if there is a major dump in the stock market in the not so far off future, nor would it surprise me to see the central bank once again start printing more money under some new stimulus program. Just a hunch, but an experienced and educated hunch.

@thejonschwartz

8 ай бұрын

@@kenadler777, thanks so much for such a thoughtful reply! To be frank, I'm shocked you pay any credence whatsoever to Nick Gerli. Would you please take 5 minutes to watch this video I made about Nick's assessment of inventory in Denver: kzread.info/dash/bejne/eqZ72KuoptmnqtI.htmlsi=SClqHPXNBVlAc62a To me, this is the clearest example of Nick being either a complete idiot or intentionally misleading his audience. You're smart; you worked in finance; you'll see immediately how idiotic or disingenuous Nick is being when he predicts a 300% rise in inventory in Denver as a result of new construction (when a real look at the numbers gets you to a 3% rise). I'm very interested to hear what you think. Also, regarding M2... I get very frustrated that people (like yourself in this exchange) focus only on outcomes, not arguments, and this M2 squabbling is a good example. You were saying four months ago that home prices are going to fall because M2 is shrinking. I said you were wrong. Now you're saying I'm agreeing with you. Not at all. Four months ago, I said the M2 argument was silly. Today, I'm saying the M2 argument is silly. When I put the Case-Shiller HPI and the M2 supply together on a graph over at FRED, I don't see a meaingful correlation. Case-Shiller was negative in 1991 when M2 was positive. Most are positive at all times. Notably, in 2009, M2 grew a ton while home prices dropped a ton. Predicting home prices by looking at M2 is like predicting the winner of a baseball game by analyzing the weather forecast. The weather isn't unrelated, but... The argument I'm making today is that a $2700/month mortgage payment feels like the actual edge of affordability for US homebuyers. With rates staying high (though they dropped 20 basis points yesterday, so maybe I am wrong after all!) through the winter, prices are going to fall through the winter -- as per usual, but with a little more gusto this winter. I'm certainly not capitulating on the silly M2 argument. In fact, I'd argue that putting so much stock in M2 is blinding you to the more relevant drivers on the housing market.

Please don't go the clickbait route. Like the Crash Bros you rail against, the issue is the hyperbole. Prices going down in the winter isn't a crash. You know this, they know this but because there are millions of people upset that they're priced out the hope of a crash fuels clicks. Then you try to back out of it by calling it a "mini-crash" which means whatever it is you want it to mean. Do we "mini-crash" every winter? You highlight that active listing are beginning to grow which is true. But that is relative as were currently at 700k active listings when we were at 1.4M active listings pre pandemic. So we have essentially HALF the number of listings of what we should have in a normal market. You entire argument seems to ignore the major issue. Most people today have low interest rates AND equity in their homes. So as people stop being able to afford houses and stop buying, what is going to motivate the sellers to sell just because their house is sitting on the market? Let's say you bough a house for $300 at 3.5% and put 5% down so your payment is rougly $1800. Now 5 years later your house is supposedly worth somewhere around $450k. And at an 8% rate you would need to buy a house for $200k to get the same payment. So even if you could sell your house for $400k and made $100k you'd still could only buy a house for the same $300k that you bought the first house at. Most people in this situation are simply going to NOT SELL. Foreclosures rates are at historic lows and have been going lower. So unless their is an event that causes MASS layoffs forcing people to sell quickly the housing market isn't going to crash. It might moderate but it is far from crashing. People locked in the deal of a lifetime and the higher prices go the better the deal they got gets.

@thejonschwartz

9 ай бұрын

I agree with you 100%! And thanks for the input. I’m trying to find the balance of attracting a new audience while presenting solid analysis.

@cjenkins79

9 ай бұрын

@@thejonschwartz I think you're definitely approaching it from a more thoughtful perspective than the Crash Bros. Unfortunately someone like Nick Gerli is going to do better on this format selling snake oil as a dose of reality is less entertaining. The Crash Bros have a built in hook. "The market is going to crash, keep watch us for a play by play so you can see when to buy." The reality is a bit more complex and most people don't like complex. You analyze the data very well from the national level. However people don't buy national houses. Keep up the great national analysis while zeroing in on the winners and losers. What should people be doing if the market isn't going to crash. The median home price didn't shoot up just because of appreciation. The low interest rates accelerated the rush to the best homes and neighborhoods. Imagine the car market is made up of 10 cars sold. 6 at $30k, 2 at $50k, and 2 at $75k. Interest rates drop so they increase each car by $5k. But the mix of cars sold is now 2 at $35k 5 at $55k and 1 at $80k. The median car sold went from $30k to $55k up $25k even though the individual cars only went up $5k and less cars were sold. In that examle people have abandoned the $30/$35k car because they see the more expensive cars are now the average. The interest rate allowed someone who should be buying a $30k car buy a $50k car instead. But now that low interest rates are gone the person who can afford the $35k car is resentful that they don't have the $55k car like their neighbor. Crash bros are telling them to wait and the guy that bought at $50k will have to sell his car to you at $30k which ain't gonna happen. What people should be doing is finding the best $35k cars out there. Nick's advice is losing people money. Imagine how much better a postion people would be in if they lowered their standards and bough alesser house in 2021 when he called the crash. They were waiting for a $400k house to crash to $300 AND interest rates to remain low. Now 2 years later had they bought a house for $150k or $200k at least they would 've had a screaming low payment. Now looking forward the same thing remains. People can sit on the sidelines and hop for a correction but at what cost. It's not timing the market its time IN the market.

@kenadler777

8 ай бұрын

@@cjenkins79 Seems to me like the "Crash bros" as you call them are on the right track, and now Jon here is coming around to realizing that. So is Jon now selling snake oil? To be fair, I think those "Crash Bros" are stating what they believe the market will do, and backing it up with the facts as they interpret them. For that matter, I think Jon is doing the same thing, but coming to a different conclusion. I think he's reaching different conclusions because he's discounting certain points that are valid, and misinterpreting others.

@cjenkins79

8 ай бұрын

@@kenadler777 Your argument is essentially that the snake oil salesman actually believes his snake oil works. Maybe they believed what they were saying 2-3 years ago. But people guided by analysis revise and update as more information comes in. They were calling for a crash back when rates were 3%-4%. Now rates are 8%. If you were in a position to buy 2 years ago and you didn’t because you thought the market was going to crash you clearly made the wrong choice. People who purchased over the last decade will have additional wealth for decades to come. Meanwhile housing from a single family home perspective is continuing to become an instrument of wealth for the upper class as we simply run out of space to build new ones. The median mortgage has essentially gone from $1500 to $2700. Best case scenario houses are flat or down 5%-10%. The people who waited for a crash will still end up with higher payments. Does anyone in their right mind that prices are going to drop back to 2020 levels AND interests rates are going to go back to the lowest rates they’ve ever been in recorded history?

Currently interest rates have sidelined a bunch of demand, along with low inventory are creating a new equilibrium in the housing market... If rates drop too much too fast, we'll see prices skyrocket and more bidding wars... unfortunately, we have have mechanism to create more supply fast enough... No crash without a MASSIVE jobloss recession

The reason this logic doesn’t fly is because more and more cash buyers (investors) are swooping in and buying up before homeowners have a chance. So rates don’t affect those types of buyers. They’re investing the too much cash that’s out there looking for someplace to sit and earn money.

@JonSmith531

9 ай бұрын

No one is 'investing' cash into houses. Thats a losing bet. Cash is going into short duration treasuries yielding over 5%.

@heidib9275

9 ай бұрын

@@JonSmith531 the people investing in the reits through 401ks and annuities are investing cash into houses indirectly. Big companies like American Homes for Rent are buying them cash using other peoples money (which are investments to those other people) and that has changed the real estate market forever. Houses weren’t treated like this on a large scale before 2008.

@Thetruthyaheard

9 ай бұрын

Also rates do affect t investors because timid you're flipping you're end buyer needs to be able to afford the purchase I. The first place you genius

@thejonschwartz

9 ай бұрын

You're right, but 90% of homes are bought to be lived in, not as investments.

@cb5516

9 ай бұрын

​@@thejonschwartzHistorically that's accurate, but can you explain the growth in investor purposes over the last 10 years. Isn't it something like one in five goes to investors currently?

So all these other channels were 1 year ahead of you and you are now admitting it. Lol

@thejonschwartz

9 ай бұрын

Yes. All these other channels which, a year ago, were reporting on the strength of the jobs market in late 2023 and how the 10-year yield responded. They were all correct.

@JonSmith531

9 ай бұрын

@@thejonschwartz You don't even know which way is up anymore. You are just saying random things at this point. 🙄

@thejonschwartz

9 ай бұрын

@@JonSmith531 At least I'm not huffing and puffing my way through development sites in Texas!

@kenadler777

8 ай бұрын

@JonSmith531 Jon Smith, Mr. Schwartz made an entire video responding to one of my comments here: kzread.info/dash/bejne/rI2MrKd6eLjSnNo.html Now here we are 4 months later and he's catching up with those that he was criticizing. I responded to him here, on this video, not in that other video, because I didn't even see that other video until last week - about 4 months after it had been published. But when I saw your comment, it pretty much summarized what I was thinking as well.

@ab8817

8 ай бұрын

he's changing his content because it boosts views (and probably because his RE business has grinded to a halt). his recent crash videos has 4x the views of his other "house hack" videos that are straight out of the bubble peak

Terrible analysis wrong on so many fronts! Hopefully not too many people fall for your tainted view 👎👎

@thejonschwartz

8 ай бұрын

Tell me more! Where am I wrong?