They Are Lying To You About US Inflation
Inflation in the US ticked up to 3.2% and Jerome Powell along with the media is saying there is an inflation problem.
If you look at the data, systemic inflation in the US is gone and the only things holding inflation up are profiteering energy and insurance companies and the high interest rates themselves.
The truth is - US CPI has been below 2% for several months if you exclude the lagging Shelter indicator, but keeping rates high risks sending the economy into deflation.
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Transfer of wealth usually occur during inflation and market crash at times like this. So for me,this is time for aggressive investment. The more stocks drop, the more I buy. I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fear increases.
@KennyMichael-id1bb
Ай бұрын
Inspiring comment! But With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio
@ElvisMarshall-xo2lw
Ай бұрын
Avert too-good-to-be-true con tricks. Consult a fiduciary counselor; these professionals are among the best in the business and offer individualized guidance to clients based on their risk tolerance. There are undesirable ones, but some with a solid track record can be excellent.
@PHILIPTURNEL
Ай бұрын
Glad to have stumbled on this conversation. Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
@ElvisMarshall-xo2lw
Ай бұрын
Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.
@KennyMichael-id1bb
Ай бұрын
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
Whenever a CPI report comes out, I come listen to Sasha.
So in summary, "None of them have a clue what the f*** it is they're actually doing !"
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
It unfortunately just keeps looking that way.
@lukeandrew3335
4 ай бұрын
I usually agree with Sasha but on this one I have to strongly disagree, I do not have as high an opinion of them as he does.
@whatsleft100
4 ай бұрын
😂😂😂😂😂@@lukeandrew3335
@axelalex
4 ай бұрын
@@SashaYanshinyes, but I would argue they actually do know what they are doing. They know the longer they play this bs, the longer they can squeeze some money... It's pure corruption
@jessicaandtrains7768
4 ай бұрын
It's definitely not that their banking buddies are making record profits thanks to current rates and will continue to do so until they drop much, much lower. No corruption here.
I think the government knows exactly what they are doing. They just play dumb because they are getting a lot of 💵 from energy/insurance companies. It’s honestly pretty sick
The govt / fed can say whatever they want about inflation and we just have to stomach it. They have zero accountability and it shows. All I know is my grocery bill, utility bills, insurance and property taxes keep increasing at an alarming rate.
By far the best financial channel on youtube. I wish more people would watch this rather than all the other 'Stock market crash' bollocks.
i dont think they are stupid, i think their actual goals are just very different to what they state
Sasha, thanks for your work. Objective, rational, eloquent.
I really enjoy your channel. Always well put over and goes against the others in KZread.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
I just call it how I see it. A pretty simple approach!
Great stuff Sasha.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Thank you!
Amazing find on the insurance numbers. Killing it as usual @SashaYanshin. You always hit the macro and the details alike. Many thanks!
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Thanks! I did think it was pretty hilarious that they printed that in the report given how the insurance industry is pretending there are reasons for the price hikes.
@cgrieser
4 ай бұрын
@@SashaYanshin Kind of a problem when you have to show profits to shareholders and quell consumer sentiment at the same time.
Thanks mate
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Thanks for watching!
Preach Sasha!!! Only person talking about insurance companies profiteering
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
It's funny because it literally says it in black and white in the Annual Report :))
@hamidseifalian9816
4 ай бұрын
Tbh insurance companies have taken a battering over the last decade with nat cats, COVID, Russia Ukraine etc, and they take the volatility and smooth it out for everyone else. So 2023 was a benign year and they made bank...it's got to last them through who knows what else is coming round the corner. It's a fairly competitive market so margins will be squeezed and new capital and player attracted to the market, driving down prices, if it's seen as being massively profitable.
Thoroughly enjoyed it as always.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Thank you!
Fantastic breakdown.
Great DD. Thank you Sacha.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
:) Thanks!
I am a fan of your analysis.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Thank you!
I always find the random objects they use to measure inflation, (in the UK) bizarre. Airfryers/wigs made from squirrels/custom leotards made from unicorn mane....... All I know is my mortgage will jump by £150 next month and my food shop is still going up every week.
Amusing as always.
Another brilliant video Sasha!
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
🙏
With inflation at its highest in 40 years, uncertainty clouding the global markets, and a high volatility index, it's about time I review my financial plans to secure my future. I'd appreciate insights on how to allocate a large portfolio, let's say $250k.
@arlenehill4ril
4 ай бұрын
look into things like real estate and stocks that pay annual dividends or better still, get a license professional who can implement a personalized financial plan based on your unique goals, needs & risk tolerance
@fromthebirchwood
4 ай бұрын
@maria_casey truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor... mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
@okaydamian
4 ай бұрын
insightful comments, amazing! just googled Karen Lynne Chess and spotted her consulting page no sweat.. was able to schedule a call session, thanks for putting this out..
Great video, as always. Thank you 😊😊😊
Looking forward to your analysis of UK inflation next week
Wow thanks Sasha, as always this videos are eyes opener.
Makes sense professor 👍
Great analysis as always Sasha!
Keep up the good work Sasha !
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
👍
Love it 👍
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Thanks!
Glad to see you haven't run out of analogies
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
I've used the rear view mirror one a lot!
Inflation is far more harmful to individuals than a collapsing stock or property market because it directly affects people's cost of living, which they immediately feel. It is not surprising that the current market sentiment is extremely pessimistic. In today's economy, assistance is critical if we are to survive.
@Peterl4290
17 сағат бұрын
I believe I could benefit from additional assistance because I am having such difficulty navigating the market. Because the majority of my assets have already been sold, I may require some guidance on where to invest my money.
@larrypaul-cw9nk
17 сағат бұрын
If you lack market knowledge, your best bet is to seek advice or support from a consultant or investing coach. Contacting a consultant may sound simple, but it's how I've managed to stay afloat in the market and increase my portfolio to roughly 65% since January. It is, in my opinion, the best way to get started in the industry right now.
@sabastinenoah
17 сағат бұрын
Please let me know the name of the investment consultant you work with and, if possible, how I can contact them.
@larrypaul-cw9nk
17 сағат бұрын
Her name is “Annette Christine Conte” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
@sabastinenoah
17 сағат бұрын
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Amazing content as always 👏
Thanks Sasha
Make deep dive on UK spring budget please !! :)
One of your best videos yet
Loved it
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Thanks!
Nice video mystic meg
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
?
@framclean7910
4 ай бұрын
@@SashaYanshin there used to be an old creepy woman. Who was on the national lottery. She would guess the numbers with planets or something.. google it. You must not have got the reference.
Top man
Amazing channel
I like Sasha, very interesting content.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Thank you!
awesome , informative video, I was wondering if you should also start stock recommendations videos again
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
I've never recommended any stocks - I shared analysis some time ago, but (don't take this the wrong way) - your comment is a big part of why I don't do that anymore. I absolutely do not want people to misconstrue interesting analysis as some kind of financial advice, etc.
I agree. I noticed there was a few things that were contributing to inflation. Shelter insurance medical transportation. Food and energy are stable or disinflation. I wonder if that’s why the stock market reversed and moved up. Also if there’s a chance they might cut rates in March.
I have to go back to check if I was watching an old video. Sasha keeps saying about that shelter is the reason the number actually doesn’t go down for long time now and people still don’t get it. I’ve learned long time ago thanks to you ♥️
I always enjoy your perspective. Now if the market would follow your lead! It’s been a dreary 3 years!
Great video as always Sasha. Love the amount of analysis and commonsense thinking - refreshing to find someone that calls 'a spade, a spade' but actually tells you what the spade is made of (if that makes sense). Hoping you will be publishing a video on the recent UK CPI and BoE news this week, interested to get your thoughts on if you think UK CPI is also in the same 'death loop' as the US with Housing costs propping up inflation and the Central Bank are not willing to reduce rates as a result, but its because the interest rate is so high that is causing Housing to increase!
When do you think rates will come down? Do you think stock market will pop after even though it's already at all time highs? Why shouldn't I worry about the Buffet indicator? Thanks.
You have to understand that the one percent needs that money more than all the rest of us. So please be happy knowing that all your money is going to the one percenters.
@lukeandrew3335
4 ай бұрын
It fills me with a warm feeling all over... Or is that the one percenters zipping up?
Good job. Do you still buy FVRR? After decent report nothing good is happening.
Is VUAG now better than VUSA for long term growth? (Now it has been added to Vanguards UK platform)? Is the return the same from both if manually reinvesting dividends?
I loved the bit on car insurance. We're getting totally screwed over in the UK too.
Brilliant analysis presented very well! You can look at all past high inflations and will consistently find Fed more than a year late in increasing/reducing the rates and going too far! As you explained they are really looking at the rear view mirror and won't reduce rates until the car has been in the ditch for more than a year.
What’s your thoughts on PPI?
Liked todays vid', but sarcasm way down at 33%....this is a worry.
@lukeandrew3335
4 ай бұрын
But impressions up by 24% so not all bad.
Sasha, how do I know your commentary is spot on? If I go back to your past vlogs, you predicted the exact same situation you describing today - you already told us so!! Well done!!!
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Ha! Thank you! And yeah - the Shelter holding up the rest of inflation when the rest of inflation is already at less than 2% has been obvious for a year now. I genuinely find it weird how this is apparently not obvious to everybody else.
@Crypto-crypto-crypto
4 ай бұрын
@@SashaYanshinit is obvious Same is happening in Uk but nothing will be done about it because they only care about themselves
Greater Toronto, Canada. Sorry to say renta are still going up month after mpnth by hundreds of dollars.
Ah CARtel, I see what you did there. Anyways, great video, great insights. As usual.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
haha! Thank you!
Can you include links to your sources in the video description? Id really love to read it all myself. Its very interesting
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
The inflation report? Or the Berkshire Hathaway Annual report? I can include sources, but they are hyper easy to find if you just google them.
So stock prices would keep coming up?
Can you do a similar anaylsis of the Bank of England? I'd be interested to see what similarities/differences there are and most crucially why the UK economy is doing so monumentally badly amongst its' peers.
Hi Sasha, “Services less energy services” is increased by more than 5% and has significant weight isn’t it? Isn’t services the most sticky part which the FED is worried about?
A decrease in the federal funds rate does not automatically mean that the bankrate will decrease. While the federal funds rate and bankrate can often move in the same direction, they are influenced by different factors and their relationship can vary depending on market conditions. Even if the housing inflation went down due to bankrate going down it, result would be higher inflation in other sectors. Throught history inflation came in multiple waves and i completely understand they are afraid of that.
The same way in the UK that all this inflation definitely isn't blatant profiteering seen in record profits of energy producers and supermarkets etc for example.
very sweary vid this time. Love it!
I would have said buy the dip but the bond and even more so stock markets virtually ignored the 'higher than expected' report so far, rightfully. The Fed are old and slow and over hiked but I expect even they will begin to cut maybe in June.
Nice to know. So which stock are you peddling ?
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
?
Given the years of ridiculous ly low rates, we can have high rates for a change. ( But not high by historical standards) I assume this applies in us as well.
Who could have seen that coming?! 🤣
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
I know, right?
I’m loading up on PREMM as theve started production and is up from here
The price of gasoline and diesel has gone up in March. My insurance payment went up in March, like it has every month. I expect the March CPI to be higher.
In the world of insurance, beware, Their promises often seem rare, With premiums high, And claims they deny, You'll find frustration and despair. C Munger 1968
100% agree on the reason for inflation. It isnt about moving though, I didnt move house but the mortgage finished its fixed term so went up loads. People's fixed term mortgages only last 2-5 years.
Don’t listen to Mortimer below .. love your work and the down to earth content. Keep it up 🥳🥳🥳🥳 Sasha for Fed Prezzie !!
13:30 Great impression of Adam Sandler in Little Nicky
and no words were minced today ... 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The stock market can also crash upwards
Well they must know what they’re doing. Like you said the politicians benefit from funding from organisations like insurance companies so perhaps it’s quite possibly they also benefit from the banks (high mortgage rates ), and the energy companies too?
The stock market agreed with you today. Market up. AI mania in full bloom. AI stocks up big.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
They AI train doesn't have any brakes :)
@ericl452
4 ай бұрын
@@SashaYanshin I owned NVIDA last year and sold it at about 145 after a 10+ percent gain in a month. I thought I was a genius. :(
There's nothing like cooking the books!
Thank you for your knowledgeable review, only person now on KZread not panicking about sticky inflation and u-turn of FED lol, can you update inflation and economic future in UK, thank you
You can selectively strip out inflation categories until there is zero inflation. Housing costs didn't make it into inflation data for the last 2 decades. Now that they finally are, we should ignore them?
They won't drop rates when markets are at all time highs.
It's like the Bank of England concerned by wage inflation so can't cut rates, when the reason people want wage rises is because their mortgage payments have sky rocketed due to the high interest rates. 🤦♂
Many vegetables and fruit are at 2019 price levels but bread, jams and some other food items are still elevated and overpriced. I plan on picking a lot of berries this summer to make plenty of jams, pies and other baked items.
Hi, I'm based in the UK. I want to start my journey in the share market. I would like to buy Unilever as my first purchase. Could you tell which platform is good to maintain my portfolio and considering ISA too. Pls let me know. Thank you.
Why though? There must be a reason.
This is an awesome video and your research is great. Thank you sasha. I have to say what's wrong with us. We just accept everything and why can't we make a stand. Insurance is mashing a killing!!!! Love you and your info, stay true!!!! We appreciate you!🎉
Back to great analysis. Prefer these to your opinions on taxing the rich.
I do get what your saying Sasha, but everything is so inflated already that a lower inflation right isnt gonna bring the currently super high prices of groceries, car parts, tools mostly everything is 50% higher than what they used to be & i dont see anything fixing it as we do nothing to address price gouging. Yes you mentioned but i DO NEED prices to go down and i mean substantially or this game isnt really worth playing......see my dilemma
George Carlin's bit comes to mind: "It's a big club... and you ain't in it". Well joke's on you G.C. I own shares in Berkshire XD
I think the Fed believes that they can hold rates for longer than necessary because they can always just slash rates substantially at the first sign of trouble. They therefore don't feel the need to finesse the lowering of rates and risk being blamed if inflation does re-emerge for whatever reason.
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
Would be nice not to induce the trouble in the first place that requires a sudden reduction in rates!
@davidpaterson7142
4 ай бұрын
@@SashaYanshin Agreed! But as you eloquently mentioned in your video they are all f*ing useless!
@TheMafuri
4 ай бұрын
That's risky. If they cut at the first sign of trouble it means 100% recession. Cutting fast at the last possible moment is the worst thing they could do.
I understand that Blackrock and other massive asset managers are now buying up swathes of domestic properties across the US, and have been raising rents across the board. Yet you point out that rental rate increases are currently at 0%, and it is the high interest rates which explain any increase in shelter inflation. Am I incorrect in my understanding of the role played by Blackrock etc in overall rental rates?
Very good. But isn't it more likely that the people making decisions from the Fed are knowingly and personally gaining from this situation, rather than being thick? Which would actually be worse, and therefore more likely.
Do you think FED keep intrest rates up to hold the economy back for a little longer, just to keep oil prices down and accelerate the Russian economic collapse?
@SashaYanshin
4 ай бұрын
That would make for an extremely convoluted plan - nope.
@miri9600
4 ай бұрын
Russian economic collapse lol must be some fired Nuland's student here, just turn off your heating.
Heard it somewhere that services was the highest and not property. Some Asian dude with his analysis on this same subject
What if you added the stock market. The measures of inflation are not necessarily what ppl are buying. If you include bitcoin and other capital assets you might see very high inflation, but what does that mean in terms of economic value. The amount of money in the economy that is boosting prices will cause higher interest rates. Its just a hop and a skip of analysis that they don't tell you about.
yup, as long as people dont have to live in a building, commute to work, or use energy in any way then inflation is going down and everything is great. good to know.
brilliant as ever Sasha. I love the deep dive into the false claims of the insurance industry as they pump premiums everywhere.
Definitely a strong hair day. Approved!
US food 12 month inflation is 1%, while in Norway its still at over 6%. And still people think we will cut rates as fast as the US will..
Falling CPI is what you see when you are entering a recession
Grain storage four seeds is a problem because of how Monsanto and other companies control the seed Market. Farmers cannot grow their own seeds but have to renew annual seasonal contracts with the seed suppliers if they wish to use any grain or seed left over from last year's purchase. The issue is that the renewal of the contract requires you to make an overly large purchase of seed and grain that you will not use up in a single season. This forces Farmers to have to acquire Moreland or storage units to continue holding all the seed and grain they cannot use but cannot afford to waste