In 2007 experts were also optimistic including FED Bernake

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

different situation

@jamesb.armstrong5433

11 ай бұрын

Don't expect a realtor to publish bad news on real estate.

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Oh, I would if I believed it! I don't hold back. Wishful thinking is not the best strategy here. @@jamesb.armstrong5433

A lot of South Florida buyer’s remorse is coming. Second year of ownership is the wake up call. Surprise!

Florida while popular suffers from a few problems: 1) Property taxes are setup to protect homesteading but new buyers are hit with very high property taxes as valuations have gone up 50%+ in a few years 2) HO insurance is unaffordable in coastal areas in structures older than 20 years and not having wind mitigation 3) Sales prices going up so much have made buyers wary and remote work less available. 4) Warming waters will lead to more extreme events and make living in the area for the more wealthy 5) Salaries are behind other areas which high home prices -- come with money or don't come.

@uselesscause3178

8 ай бұрын

It is crazy for us inland as well. We are expected to assist in the insurance coverage of those millionaires mansions on the beach they keep rebuilding. Remote work was a godsend. You sound like a native Floridian too! ;)

Availability has opened up big time in the Sarasota metro area. At the peak nearly every listing on the MLS was pending, Today not so much. With the real possibility of a recession, bank failures and geopolitical tensions on the rise I think one would be wise to sit this market out until things become a bit clearer.

The variable most people never look at is time. In a business cycle it takes time for economic stress to occur. The inventory issue imho will change dramatically as speculators face higher and higher costs. In 2007-08 it was the speculators that brought down the market. The cascade was from bankrupt speculators. I believe that the sepculators will fail again. But one must be patient if they want to get the best price. If you are not in a hurry, rent, prices are now starting to drop precipitously. If you lose 2000 a week on equity, it's actually cheaper to rent for 2000 a month. Be patient if you can. Price is on your side.

Asking a realtor if the housing market is crashing is like asking a Fox if the hens are doing well😂

whatever she sez,its gonna be a slow moving trainwreck. Things will get worse. It will ALWAYS be better to lease instead of BUY. If you are sitting on a bunch of cash and want a store of value, cash purchases are ok, downsides are insurance, market price is too high, taxes are too high. Assuming market prices will be dropping for the next two years,then waiting is likely better; owner financing - land contract purchase agreements might be a good alternative. Per S/F is $250 to $500+ (some condos); purchases should be considered if the Per S/F drops about 50% from their highest. Another bubble, 3rd one I've experienced as Boomer.

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Tune in next year.

If you live in a HOA in Florida, watch the Board spending closely.

Always informative and interesting. Plus Katrin makes you feel like she talking to you, she’s very personable.

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Thank you so much! Also, for stopping by again! :)

You explain things in such an easy way to understand. Very logical. Thank you!

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Thank you so much!

Home values are declining rapidly in Florida and Massachusetts. Per Zillow and Redfin.

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

No, they aren't in FL

@IS-jy3dx

9 ай бұрын

yes they are and you know it, you just don't want to admit it @@katrinreal

Florida's problem isn't that people don't want to live here, it is Insurance companies making it impossible for even native Floridian's to continue to live here. Insurance, both housing and vehicle are tied together making both the cost of homeownership and driving extremely high even for Safe Drivers. Rents are not exempt from this as landlords get hit with even more fees. If you own two homes, you will also pay more. Property taxes are going up. If you buy a condo please make sure you buy only a new one or the assessment of that condo can cause you to get a bill in the tens of thousands. As a lifelong resident of Fl, I would split in a heartbeat if I could.

Not crashing yet! But pain is coming 👀

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Let's see.

I agree I don't see a housing market crash in the near future either however Florida may experience a market crash solely due to the insurance company fleeing and the insanely High insurance rates

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

It's a bit of a mess. Not everyone is paying high fees.

Thanks for sharing

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

My pleasure

The real estate insurance in Florida is almost as high as the mortgage

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Hmmm where are you getting your info from?

@mikeallen3646

10 ай бұрын

@@katrinreal Ive talk to 10-15 people in the past few months in south florida that have said thier insurance have jumped 30-40 percent and are drowning.... talking to everyday people will out weigh your chart you get your info from any day!

@katrinreal

10 ай бұрын

I am sure I have spoken to more people than you about homeowners insurance given my line of work and I know many for which the insurance has not gone up very much at all. . Has it gone up a lot for many? Yes. But the fact is, not all have a bad experience with homeowners insurance. That's also a fact. It also depends on location, type of property, age of property etc. etc.@@mikeallen3646

Your guess is a good as mine.

Great stat-finding, but respectfully, I disagree... You're one of the realtors who only speaks on real estate statistics in regards to predictions and it's frustrating because the real conversation is around 1. decreasing wages (my daughter makes less than the amount I made 20 years ago on the same job) 2. terrible education (especially in Florida) 3. extreme price hikes & hyper-inflation (insurance, taxes, services, goods, etc.) 4. lazy service workers (I'm a business owner and most in my network are finding it difficult to find competent help) 5. layoffs (A.I. is taking over lots of university degree level positions and robotics & automation is taking over low level blue collar positions). None of these things were a threat in 2008!!!! This is the conversation and all of it seems to be creating a storm, where people like yourself can't see it because you're focused on published data metrics in a single category. No offense, but real estate prices going higher without addressing any of the other issues will be devastating to the overall well-being of our society.

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

I understand your thoughts process, but it's very unlikely that the market will crash anytime soon. I look at many different data points.

@quiatimet

11 ай бұрын

@katrinp. Did data points predict the Covid shutdown? Did data points predict the release of A.I. to the public?

All I'll say is good luck, especially all those who came and bought over the last several years. There is never a swamp, except for the Everglades, that builders will not fill and build on. As soon as these new builders are caught with their pants down with their shareholders they will fire sale everything and sell below costs to keep their trades employed or to get financing for phase 2 in hopes to make it to the next bubble. Insurance, Taxes, Congestion, HOA/CDD fees, Food Costs, Crime, Weather, New Construction, Etc. will bring the market way down. At first I thought 20% now I'm thinking more like 60%.

It could be really interesting if you can speak not about nominal numbers. There is alaways any kon of an inflation. Now we got a high inflation what changes everthing. In addition official inflation is much lower than OUR real inflation. If you think about any profit you have to think about a REAL inflation and all kind of reaising like crazy expences and taxes.

Excellent analysis! Thank you !

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

This name sounds familiar! It's been a long time. How are you Todd? :)

@toddmullins2031

11 ай бұрын

Good ! Just enjoying good business and healthy living here in Sarasota !

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

I can imagine...it's very hard to get contractors these days with so much work everywhere@@toddmullins2031

Home nearly paid for, very low interest rate, deed restricted golf community, houses selling in days, would make a great profit, insurance and taxes sure to go up..keep or sell..what would you tell your senior parents to do?

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Maybe consult with a financial advisor?

@jimshoe402

11 ай бұрын

THINK Before my deal nice house $500 Taxes Ins.a month and Free Air anywhere..Not SIX months of Heat !! ALOHA

@castlerc

10 ай бұрын

My father past, my brother and I told my mom to stay in the house. We both paid it off for her.

This market is going to take a huge crap. Interest rates aren’t going back up any time soon either.

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

I doubt re: market. Interest rates will take some time.

@steveb8503

11 ай бұрын

… but Katrin mentioned 30%+ cash buyers. At one point in my neighborhood in Lakewood Ranch it was close to 70%. The stock market returns are a bigger deal as these homes get funded with prior home equity and 401Ks. I’m not saying it’s a complete shield against interest rates but it does provide some buffer as money funnels in here from across the US.

@jeremybaldwin2840

11 ай бұрын

What’s happening right now in virtually every market is completely unsustainable.

most people make sub 20$/hr! nothing is even remotely possible to even consider for the average folks!

@katrinreal

10 ай бұрын

I agree - only a select few can afford

Average price of a home is a few 100k more than in 2008

I think there is always going to be a strong desire for people to move to florida(post covid) for their personal, religious, and political views. Despite all the increasing property taxes, increasing homeowners insurance cost. Some people "need " Florida that bad. But for me, it made more sense to move to GA, which i love. I can always visit FL! Also i was one of those people who bought with a low interest rate, but in an already high cost of living and high tax state(California). So a great job opportunity came up in a GA which has a lower cost of living. Yeah our mortage is a lot higher but we are saving on all other expenses👍

@katrinreal

10 ай бұрын

Makes sense Timothy. Thank you for sharing!

the market is about to crash you cant raise interest rates this high this fast and dream that the market is going to keep going up with no pain.

We have so many house poor people now it’s unbelievable. It doesn’t matter if you a have 3% mortgage you’re still see an increase in your house payment due to high insurance, HOA . Wait to see what is going to be happen

Fannie Mae is more on point.

Nahhhh, you are cherry-picking. 🍒

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Ok, check in here in 2024.

@rulymendy

11 ай бұрын

@@katrinreal deal 👍

What's the information of days in the market?

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

24 days for SFH in July - Florida. Still well below the pre-covid era.

@jimshoe402

11 ай бұрын

How many months Supply ?? @@katrinreal

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

As of July 2023 for SFH, 2.8 months.@@jimshoe402

Another Superb video. This frog croaks over his pond. Thank God we have a system that allows 30yr fixed mortgages. Tough sledding for the ARM Countries. Will Gov't step in? Too bad so sad No rate cuts for 2024 per the Fed and a Possibility of. 5 point higher. At some point in the future opportunities should present themselves in Commercial. With a soft landing and the home real estate guru's in agreement what could possibly go wrong? BUT if a home builder discounted the price, free upgrades, no extra for the lot, covered closing costs with a rate buy down to 5%. I would BUY if I wanted a home.

It appears that as I shop around for a condo, the rental market costs much more per month than a mortgage

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

Yes, it many cases it will.

What would another pandemic do to the FL market?

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

what would another pandemic do to the US market

@rollthers3157

11 ай бұрын

@@katrinreal No way to know until it happens. Maybe the economy will crash and buyers will stay home. It would be a huge opportunity for investors. 🤔

What happens if we hit recession next year

totally agree with your analysis and great video Katrina!! way too much traffic into sunshine state. The northern FL market is stilll priced way below most states as well

@katrinreal

10 ай бұрын

🙌🏼

That's half a million dollars (nationwide) on avg by Q2 of 24.

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

median sales price?

What's your opinion on the market situation and outlook? 👇

@pc3666

11 ай бұрын

If Kartin represents you the situation is in good shape

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

🙃@@pc3666

@claudiodemarco4388

11 ай бұрын

I moved to Florida last year from Canada. I think I overpaid a bit, but had previously gotten outbid on several properties from Naples all the way up to the Tampa area. I'm happy with the property I ended up with. We're a little off the radar in Lehigh Acres, but Ft Myers border is only 10 minutes away, so beaches, if I wanted to go there, would probably be about a 30 minute drive. So far, at least, we don't seem to be affected by the snowbird traffic in the winter months. Since I'm retired, I have the time to do really important things, like casually monitoring home prices. Not that I'm in the market, just curious. In fact, I'm curious about a lot of things; I'm just as busy now as when I had a job. Looks like there's been a little dip in sale prices, but I wouldn't consider it to be any major decline. I've also noticed that builders are posting real estate as newly built or to be built. Our community was also approached a few months ago by a builder, to build another housing project right next to ours (offering us several carrots), for which we had to vote on. So in my non-expert opinion, I think real estate is healthy down in our area.

@sauljimenez6738

11 ай бұрын

I believe their will be a crash. Why? Many people are already falling behind on cra payments. 2. Credit cards are already maxed out. 3. Student loans are coming back, and if you decide not to pay they can just garnish wages!!!! 4. Gas prices will surge meaning everything will go up in prices. 5. People are already withdrawing from 401k plans prematurely. Also real estate has always gone up in prices slightly more than inflation, now they are out of wack!!!! George Gammon made a good video explaining this.

Wow, look at 1hat 10 year treasury yield today. Not good for mortgages.

Can't trust someone who has skin in the game.. 🙄

@katrinreal

9 ай бұрын

It always pays off to be transparent

😁😁😁😁

@katrinreal

11 ай бұрын

🙃

The market has its ups and downs . Try blaming the biden adm . 😮

You sound like a broker

@katrinreal

9 ай бұрын

I am a broker and I am just explaining it the way I see it....

@hectorlopez1196

9 ай бұрын

Yes thanks that was my point

@katrinreal

9 ай бұрын

Speaking the facts is like sounding like a broker... I'll take it because that's always been my intention :) @@hectorlopez1196