The Recession That Didn’t Bark | GoodFellows

This week, the self-moderating GoodFellows (Bill Whalen is on vacation) ponder why the much predicted recession hasn’t materialized-at least not yet. The Fellows also discuss the national security implications of a recession and why some economists may be a little too optimistic about economic conditions in the near future. Then, we check back in on the war in Ukraine and close with some thoughts about summer, featuring a cameo appearance from General Funkenstein himself.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
00:00 Introduction
1:28 Where did the recession go, is it just starting?
5:53 Banking Crisis
7:42 Other Geopolitical shocks + Inflation rates/numbers
14:18 What will happen to the interest rate hikes? + Labor Market
19:54 Housing and Debt + Capacity and Defense Budget
29:09 Ukraine joining Nato + Cold War II
41:51 How is it going with China + who is winning?
46:56 Lighting Round

Пікірлер: 231

  • @markb8468
    @markb846810 ай бұрын

    Im a blue collar guy of 42 yrs and i think its terribly important for the regular folks to engage with intellectuals. Thank you all!

  • @NeonCryptic

    @NeonCryptic

    10 ай бұрын

    Very approachable intellectuals

  • @blip1

    @blip1

    10 ай бұрын

    This, although I've still got some money on my theory (which I hope is wrong, and which probably is wrong) that the Wagner thing was a ruse 😂

  • @tnndll4294

    @tnndll4294

    10 ай бұрын

    Blue collar sometimes means common sense. and our intellectuals aren't always right. But Neil and Kotkin though have been right about Russia for a long time.

  • @9pah

    @9pah

    9 ай бұрын

    Right there with ya Mark :) Having said that, it's a different story when I try to read Niall's books (of which I've purchased 3) My blue collar vocabulary is not up for the task. If I dropped some contractor trade speak on him his eyes might glaze over. Lol We all have our attributes :)

  • @jacqquelinetackaberry5450

    @jacqquelinetackaberry5450

    9 ай бұрын

    Aren’t they the ones who got us here 🫤🤷‍♀️

  • @fs5775
    @fs577510 ай бұрын

    Philly Pride, yeah HR !! Never forgetting your roots, buddy !!

  • @MonkeyEmpires
    @MonkeyEmpires10 ай бұрын

    Your shows are truly a gift, and I consider all of you personal heroes of mine. Keep up the fantastic work! (P.S. More Kotkin, please!)

  • @ambition112
    @ambition1129 ай бұрын

    0:04: 📈 Despite predictions of an imminent recession, the US economy has added jobs and maintained a low unemployment rate, possibly due to interest rates not being substantially raised above inflation. 5:27: ⚠ The possibility of a banking crisis and other geopolitical shocks could lead to inflationary pressure and a global depression. 10:42: ⚙ The speaker discusses the causes and potential future of inflation, highlighting the role of fiscal theory and supply chain disruptions. 15:54: 📊 The labor market is strong with low unemployment and job opportunities, but there are long-term problems with low labor force participation. The housing market is behaving differently than in previous recessions. 21:05: 💰 The US economy is doing well due to low mortgage rates, but the increasing federal debt may squeeze discretionary spending, including defense. 26:39: ⚔ The defense budget is gradually getting squeezed, causing the US to fall behind China in terms of naval capacity and technological capabilities. 32:59: 🔍 The use of drones in warfare is a significant change in the character of warfare, but not the nature of war itself. 38:13: 🌍 The US should lead more in getting Ukraine into NATO to defend against Russia and bolster morale, but it may take time and consensus. 42:29: 🌊 The speaker believes that the US is winning in terms of recognizing the dangers of giving China power over the economy and taking measures to make supply chains less reliant on China. 47:33: 🏖 The speakers discuss their preferences for summer activities and destinations, with HR recommending Gershwin's 'Summertime' and Will Smith's 'Summertime' as summer songs. 52:30: 🎶 The hosts discuss their love for Green Day and encourage letting kids choose the music in the summer. Recap by Tammy AI

  • @RonBurgess

    @RonBurgess

    9 ай бұрын

    5😂4😮😢9i9😅😅😅😊😊❤ 18:07 18:08 18:08 18:09 18:31 😊p0o😊😊aaa000😊😊q0😅😊😊😊q++qq1+😊😊 24:16 q

  • @hazelsam13
    @hazelsam1310 ай бұрын

    I’m a simple chef, but I watch this show to be more informed and hear these awesome perspectives

  • @themoonman-4
    @themoonman-410 ай бұрын

    Bravo gentlemen!

  • @joshuachapman247
    @joshuachapman24710 ай бұрын

    Great episode, thanks for the retro retro music. Have a great summer.

  • @lamarzimmermanmennonitefar5269
    @lamarzimmermanmennonitefar526910 ай бұрын

    "Inflate the debt away" That phrase seems key. Borne on the backs of the peasantry and retirees.

  • @listener523

    @listener523

    10 ай бұрын

    Retirees? Imagine getting a mortgage at these rates. Those of us who got a fixed rate or refinance before Biden should be thankful.

  • @freespirit6209
    @freespirit62099 ай бұрын

    Much enjoyed as usual, gentlemen. Thank you so much, and have a wonderful summer!

  • @lableader1630
    @lableader163010 ай бұрын

    The conversation inspired an image of the Titanic orchestra in my mind....

  • @dedetudor.

    @dedetudor.

    10 ай бұрын

    They're duds. They are afraid to address the WEF 4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION and the GREAT RESET.... Are they really that stupid? Schwab said THEY are restructuring the Global Economy.

  • @dedetudor.

    @dedetudor.

    10 ай бұрын

    Controlled banking looming right off the bow. CBDC digital. Control of YOUR spending.

  • @garygriffin5432
    @garygriffin54329 ай бұрын

    Always thoughtful and entertaining.

  • @SafeSpaceCafe
    @SafeSpaceCafe10 ай бұрын

    Another informative fun Ep. Dank Ya!

  • @MarshallMachines
    @MarshallMachines10 ай бұрын

    As Always, Such a pleasure to listen to the Good Fellows. Gaurav, India

  • @Ironrodpower
    @Ironrodpower10 ай бұрын

    Having a harder time getting thru these without yelling at my screen than in times past. Would love some more VDH on these. About the only reason I follow Hoover at this point.

  • @carolfriend6977
    @carolfriend697710 ай бұрын

    Great as always❤

  • @neildrd
    @neildrd10 ай бұрын

    Thanks for making it a fun listen and including broader geopolitical subjects.

  • @--Dani
    @--Dani10 ай бұрын

    JT...hell yeah. Carolina on my mind...👍

  • @michaelpapp7371
    @michaelpapp737110 ай бұрын

    Great again, looking forward to the next viewer questions episode 👍👍👍

  • @polyglot8
    @polyglot810 ай бұрын

    H.R. McMaster: Right about his home mortgage. Wrong about the prospects for Ukraine's offensive.

  • @Mehwhatevr
    @Mehwhatevr10 ай бұрын

    been looking for the next episode. always a good day when a GoodFellows episode drops.

  • @notaname8385
    @notaname838510 ай бұрын

    Another great video 👍

  • @AAkCN1
    @AAkCN110 ай бұрын

    Great episode with multiple interesting facets

  • @shmachable
    @shmachable10 ай бұрын

    I rarely click on anything so fast as a new Goodfellows episode. Thank you, you three, for another hour of insight added to the world.

  • @chrisgreene2623
    @chrisgreene262310 ай бұрын

    I wish more and more people would watch the informative videos provided by the Hoover Institute as it gives you a Conservative perspective.

  • @stldweller

    @stldweller

    10 ай бұрын

    They don’t want that type of perspective, I mean they hope you will listen to Bernie and AOC.

  • @jacqquelinetackaberry5450

    @jacqquelinetackaberry5450

    9 ай бұрын

    Why would we listen to the very people that caused this 🤷‍♀️

  • @nHautamaki
    @nHautamaki10 ай бұрын

    Nice to see a slightly more optimistic Niall!

  • @michaelpapp7371
    @michaelpapp737110 ай бұрын

    And what about the Australian summer???????🤣🤣🤣 Definitely up there on the list

  • @MrCarlGW
    @MrCarlGW10 ай бұрын

    That lightening round clip was quite a shock.

  • @sandipmistry5218
    @sandipmistry521810 ай бұрын

    Another great video I do love these ! I’d love to get your take on the use of A.I. in warfare and Palantir and all its doing in the defence realm! Be cool to get some discussion about space and how that is the new frontier for the new great powers ! Can’t wait for the next one !

  • @alexanderblyakher5480
    @alexanderblyakher548010 ай бұрын

    Really good fellas…

  • @user-iv1jg2fd7z
    @user-iv1jg2fd7z10 ай бұрын

    Guys, guys, guys. There is only one place in the world to spend Summer, and that is on a beach in Australia. To be born Australian, is to win the lottery of life!

  • @averynunley8872
    @averynunley887210 ай бұрын

    Thank you for the great commentaries and ideas. I wonder if you could have Nouriel Roubini, Kyle Bass, or Byron Wien as guests on the Hoover Goodfellas show…I would love to hear you guys discuss several other topics. 1. How will obesity in North America affect our economic future? I have read that by 2030, 60% of Americans will be obese according to reading from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. 2. With current inflation trends and the gradualism of inflation in the US, how long will persistent increasing inflation last, 3-5 years, or longer? 3. Can you discuss how high inflation & high taxation destroys societies and empires, for example the Ottoman Empire, and what countries are headed in that direction today? 4. Can you discuss Senator Rubio’s comments about Tech & AI in relation to developed societies , (the “biggest nightmare in the long term” is the job loss that A.I.) ?

  • @vssprc
    @vssprc10 ай бұрын

    Great podcast! Thank you. It is a must listen to for all the angles it takes on. Understanding that your focus is more international & US, I wonder if at some point soon you could tackle head on (a rugby metaphor) the South African situation, vis-a-vis its support for Russia in its horror Ukrainian endeavour and, perhaps more importantly, the implications for the US’s & other allies’ foreign policies should South Africa dig even further into the BRIC’s web?Areas of interest: - The potential launch of a ‘BRICS dollar’. - South Africa’s access to, knowledge of & influence on other African countries. - The position of South Africa’s ports (including Simon’s Town naval port, recently in the press). (FYI - I also listen to Battlegrounds)

  • @kevinjenner9502

    @kevinjenner9502

    9 ай бұрын

    Niger Coup leader joins long line of US trained mutineers…US trained officers have conducted in at least 6 coups in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali since 2012. They have also been involved in recent takeovers in Gambia (2014) Guinea (2021) Mauritania (2008) and Niger. (2023)

  • @clickgear9407
    @clickgear940710 ай бұрын

    Regarding Ukraine's prospects, you can see these men ever so slowly coming to the realization that we have a losing hand. Still, they don't seem to realize yet -- or don't let on if they do -- just how profoundly we are outmatched. Watching these men over the next few months, to see how they handle the dis-confirmation of their previous proclamations, will be fascinating,

  • @kevinwoolley7960

    @kevinwoolley7960

    10 ай бұрын

    Outmatched in what sense? When the war started, conventional wisdom was that Ukraine would fall immediately. Russia has been shown to be a paper tiger. They've taken a hundred thousand casualties and have almost nothing to show for it. Their economy is in ruins and hundreds of thousands of their best and brightest young people have left. And they are tied up in a land war like WW1. Sure, Ukraine probably isn't going to mount a successful counteroffensive, but it's Russia that's stuck, not the West. Putin has made a gigantic error and his entire Western frontier is now much more prepared and alert. And he clearly can't even control some of his subordinates.

  • @VK-ds2dw

    @VK-ds2dw

    10 ай бұрын

    They're still borderline delusional. To call what the Ukrainians are doing now as 'strategic' is insane. To speak with a straight face about how Russian troops are poorly trained and about their heavy losses while conveniently ignoring Ukraines bigger losses and even worse trained army that is now being dragged to the front line is nuts. It's boarding on propaganda.

  • @lembergnative7731

    @lembergnative7731

    10 ай бұрын

    US is "outmatched" by Russia???? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

  • @Ironrodpower

    @Ironrodpower

    10 ай бұрын

    My frustration as well

  • @tnndll4294

    @tnndll4294

    10 ай бұрын

    Ukraine doesn't have to win outright, only make it PUTIN'S VIETNAM. More Russian casualties in 1 year versus Soviet-Afghan war in 10 years. plus coups like Wagner

  • @alexverjovsky873
    @alexverjovsky87310 ай бұрын

    I love the GoodFellows, and eagerly await each new video. I wonder when they are going to talk about what is happening in Israel, and how dangerous it is for a country with non-conventional capabilities to potentially go into a civil war.

  • @bsmithhammer
    @bsmithhammer10 ай бұрын

    Great show as usual, gentlemen. One thing to keep in mind with the quoted numbers of Chinese Navy ships - quantity does not equal capability. Many ships included in those numbers would fit in a high school gymnasium with very limited range in comparison the U.S. Navy. They are addressing that rapidly, with larger ships that have longer ranges, but let's keep in mind much of the current fleet has regional range at best.

  • @louisgiokas2206
    @louisgiokas220610 ай бұрын

    On the housing front, I think there is one thing people underestimate. That one thing is refinancing. I bought my house 25 years ago (paid it off twice, but that is another story). Just before that, rates had started to come down. On my previous house I think I refinanced once in six years, but many of mt neighbors were refinancing annually. So, as was pointed out, the current rates are not bad historically (and I mean a longer history than the last 20 years) AND, as pointed out, unemployment is very low. In the early 1980s the first two houses were lease/purchase deals. I didn't pull the trigger on either of those, but there were personal reasons for that. The main reason was that the rates were about 18%. Actually, in the early 1990s when I moved to the Midwest we were in the midst of a "real" recession with high unemployment. I looked at 200 homes in the city (outside of Chicago) and took notes on 60. Then my wife found a FSBO which we bought.

  • @geotechPE
    @geotechPE10 ай бұрын

    Good show gentlemen! Employment has somewhat been decoupled from recession-economic thinking by poor demographics. I simple make note because it was not mentioned with the Feds current thinking on why it does what it does.

  • @nathanngumi8467
    @nathanngumi846710 ай бұрын

    Great show! Great summer music recommendations! Is Dr. Bill Whalen on summer holiday?

  • @joshuap9580
    @joshuap958010 ай бұрын

    maybe they should have invited Paul Krugman on as a guest for this episode?

  • @jonnyref3475
    @jonnyref34759 ай бұрын

    I was hoping HR would give the Beastie Boys a mention in his choice of summer song. One day…

  • @alexandrustefanescu8992
    @alexandrustefanescu899210 ай бұрын

    Excellent as always! One question that I feel needs proper insight from the GoodFellows gang: is there any historical precedent where one single country / area / city state controlled so much of the world's production capacity as China does today? And how was that precedent fixed? How did those downstream players unlatch themselves peacefully?

  • @ralphjohnson3396
    @ralphjohnson339610 ай бұрын

    "Subsidies poured down various ratholes". Is there some way to find out about this problem in more detail? I know about agriculture subsidies (I am from Illinois). There are a lot of corn subsidies, which my friends who are famers love, but which seems to me to be a bad idea. But is there any overview of subsidies that go out in all areas?

  • @helenkessler6012

    @helenkessler6012

    10 ай бұрын

    That's how administration's hide the real stats. You have to go dept level and dig. I used the grant listings to do what I needed. Non Gov entities. Lobby groups. Too. Follow the money.

  • @barumbadum
    @barumbadum10 ай бұрын

    I like Niall

  • @JM-vh7oc
    @JM-vh7oc10 ай бұрын

    I don't care what you say - for regular folks, we HAVE been in a recession! You might not feel it - but the rest of us do.

  • @naj70
    @naj7010 ай бұрын

    Biz Markie, Will Smith, James Taylor. Thanks guys. What are Bill Whalens desert Island Discs? Niall - you are not a Boomer!

  • @chopincam-robertpark6857
    @chopincam-robertpark685710 ай бұрын

    Great one again. Why not call on Bobby Shiller to find out what really is going on in Real Estate ? .

  • @stooge389
    @stooge38910 ай бұрын

    I didn't know not borrowing money was a Sco'ish thing, but that's good to know 😂

  • @grahamdraper8207
    @grahamdraper820710 ай бұрын

    Incredible conversation as always. Please can HR talk to the recent downing of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine and what implications that may have for porcupining Taiwan viz aircraft carrier groups?

  • @duaneruckle
    @duaneruckle10 ай бұрын

    The Goodfellows are always disappointed when there isn't a disaster to blame on someone else. Certainly apparent that they are still fighting for an elusive victory from their deeply dug trenches.

  • @roberthumphreys7977
    @roberthumphreys797710 ай бұрын

    I remain convinced that unemployment numbers are of little value and are probably fudged by the government for political purposes. My reasoning? Name anything about the government these days that has not been politicized. What counts is workforce participation rate. So, how is that number these days? And what portion of all jobs today are "off the books", with so few Americans actually willing to do the difficult work such as agricultural labor, landscaping, home construction, paving, etc.? As for inflation, John is spot on about the real effect of inflation, which is that prices are not coming down. The best evidence is at the supermarket. Krugman's view about how inflation affects the average American is as clueless today as it was in the past. And tell me, gentlemen, are we not seeing more threats of strikes as part of labor contract negotiations? Does Krugman think the likely outcome, which is rising wages, will not have an inflationary impact? Is his "victory lap" perhaps a bit early?

  • @helenkessler6012

    @helenkessler6012

    10 ай бұрын

    An economic doom loop for wages.

  • @kenergixllc527
    @kenergixllc52710 ай бұрын

    We just bought an idle plant from ADM, so I have been speaking with OEM's about new equipment and delivery times, all are US manufacturers. Delivery times are up to 25 months after downpayment. Most are around 6 months. Everyone is swamped to deliver new orders. A friend who own modified starch polymer manufacturing is having to use one additive source from India instead of Europe and Indians have issues actually meeting specs in most everything, even simple chemicals.

  • @martinfalkenberg64
    @martinfalkenberg6410 ай бұрын

    I find that people generally have the wrong expectations when asking economists to predict the next recession. You do not go to your doctor and ask whether you will become sick next year and how bad it will be. Their expertise is still very useful.

  • @Farhaad-ll3qn
    @Farhaad-ll3qn10 ай бұрын

    It would good if GoodFellows discuss in one of these sessions Turkey's role in NATO. The idea that Turkey held hostage the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO shows Turkey's interests aren't compatible with the rest of NATO and Europe.

  • @TheRealBrook1968
    @TheRealBrook196810 ай бұрын

    People still buy homes at 19%. My parents did, twice, using an ARM. My realtor friends are back in black and selling. The market only had a seasonal hiccup in desirable Nashville. Perhaps, economies will be more drastically contrasted regionally as three large states, CA / IL / NY, decline and states like TX / GA / TN / FL continue to prosper.

  • @danielhall3105
    @danielhall31059 ай бұрын

    Hey guys, Kenny Loggins is at The Mountain Winery in Saratoga for two dates in October.......ideal weather on the Penninsula.

  • @nnakoematete3991
    @nnakoematete39919 ай бұрын

    Very compelling and undeniable trends, my only question is do these trends really apply in the context of the under or non developing world?

  • @roblangsdorf8758
    @roblangsdorf875810 ай бұрын

    It would be helpful to have some demographics about how many people have retired in the past 5 years and how many people have dropped out of the work force due receiving government benefits or drug addiction. We are told that there is a demand for workers, but no data about what should be available.

  • @stooge389
    @stooge38910 ай бұрын

    Why can't this be a weekly show? 😬

  • @jimmiller1686
    @jimmiller168610 ай бұрын

    Unemployment is a lagging indicator-by the time the labor market weakens, we will already have been in a recession. If you look at leading indicators, and indicators such as freight/cargo data, new orders, job openings, hours worked, etc. you will see that a recession is just around the corner.

  • @benjamindover4337

    @benjamindover4337

    10 ай бұрын

    The funny thing about tomorrow is that it always remains just a day away.

  • @pierre-charlesleonhart8357

    @pierre-charlesleonhart8357

    10 ай бұрын

    People have been saying that since 2021 now

  • @roblangsdorf8758
    @roblangsdorf875810 ай бұрын

    Doesn’t NATO require that a country not have contested boundaries before it can join NATO?

  • @lawjef
    @lawjef10 ай бұрын

    Fed hiking and recessions is +/- 9 months but (a) that is based on real rates being positive, and (b) occurs during fiscal contraction, not a massive stimulus (even with “automatic stabilizers” and even with unemployment lower than NAIRU/non cyclical unemployment rate, our current fiscal deficit is growing as % of GDP)

  • @cragnamorra
    @cragnamorra10 ай бұрын

    I'm not an economist. But I don't think one has to be in order to recognize the looming threat of an upward-spiralling national debt. It seems to me the most pressing national-security problem the United States faces...and hardly anyone is talking about it. Specifically, that break-point where interest payments to service that debt starts to exceed defense spending, but also the larger problem of those burgeoning non-discretionary payments taking an ever-larger bite out of *everything*. Philosophically I'm very much a limited-government, low-taxes/spending, etc etc kind of guy, but as a practical matter I see no way we can lower taxes...or even maintain current taxation levels...until something is done about deficit spending on a yearly basis and addressing the national debt on a long-term basis. I would actually favor a tax hike IF it was presented as part of a credible, coherent plan to balance the budget and start paying down some of the principal, and IF I had any confidence whatsoever that current and future politicians (regardless of party) would hold to such a plan. I'm skeptical that such would be the case.

  • @ranwest2213
    @ranwest221310 ай бұрын

    I would love to hear the shows opinions on the BRICS gold backed currency that keeps coming up in other discussions..

  • @noahway13
    @noahway138 ай бұрын

    I feel better about the other two guy's impression of the economy over the economist.

  • @DirkusTurkess
    @DirkusTurkess10 ай бұрын

    I think that recession disappeared the moment when the definition of recession changed.

  • @user-dn9nu5gc8q
    @user-dn9nu5gc8q10 ай бұрын

    Summer reading list, what are your favorite fiction books? BTW I like it when the good guys win.

  • @lgude
    @lgude10 ай бұрын

    I like to see Niall expand on what he said in Kiev at the very beginning of the war. Specifically, that the Ukrainians couldn’t do what the Poles had done. I took that to be a recognition that Ukraine is part of Orthodox civilisation while Poland is Roman Catholic and therefore naturally part of the West. Ever since I have seen the war in Ukraine as to some extent a civil war within Orthodox Civilisation. From that perspective Ukraine has chosen to try to go forward, to evolve, while Russia has chosen to try to go back to the past, and is devolving. Ironically, Alexander Dugan's view that Russia's destiny is to self actualise as a Eurasian challenger to Western Civilisation, is being led by Ukraine. The depths of destruction and evil that Dostoyevsky documented over 100 years ago is being confronted by the heroism of the Ukrainian people but I believe they can prevail only if they can throw off their own habitual corruption. Personally, as someone born in the early 40s I also see this war as an example of Toynbee’s theory that civilisations arise in response to a serious but still overcomeable challenge.

  • @magellan500

    @magellan500

    9 ай бұрын

    @lgude, you make some great points.

  • @swampwiz
    @swampwiz9 ай бұрын

    Is that a pair of swords over Ferguson's bed? That's tickling the dragon's tail.

  • @jordangascony9413
    @jordangascony941310 ай бұрын

    please add summer breeze to that list

  • @Erik-gg2vb
    @Erik-gg2vb10 ай бұрын

    The Fed printed money like no tomorrow during COVID and home prices went up 40% in two years. That and zero interest rates. I want to buy but not at these current prices. 42% of income going to home payments is nuts. The Fed must raise interest rates to bring down the cost of home ownership.

  • @lawrencefrost9063
    @lawrencefrost906310 ай бұрын

    53:20 really? You read the comments? Could you guys touch the current status of political islam and it's effect on Europe, especially in Great-Britain and the Netherlands? I'm a huge fan of Ayaan Hirsi Ali and since she happens to be the wife of our esteemed host today, it would be beyond awesome to have her as a guest on the show!

  • @michaelrichardson840
    @michaelrichardson84010 ай бұрын

    Please produce a “Back to School” show for August. Directed towards public school teachers of History (World and U. S.), Geography, Economics, and Political Science. With concrete historical comparisons and “what if’s” and counterfactuals. Also, suggestions for relevant primary sources and contemporary articles- accessible to the average high school reader. Finally, consider producing and episode with a live public high school audience and open it up to a Q & A (my high school class at the top of the list of course) . Realize that producing an episode for the AP Government class at a top level Palo Alto high school would not be representative of the average high school class. I will check the comments in the coming days for your feedback.

  • @stevematthews4489
    @stevematthews448910 ай бұрын

    While we are falling behind China in the # of ships (although not necessarily capability), we also have allies in the Pacific, in particular Japan's 150 ship navy, and S Korea has a 140 ship navy, although probably not blue water. So concern is real but keep in mind that it's not just the US facing China. I would add that China seems to (almost inexplicably) be doing more to decouple from the west than the west is doing to decouple from China, even as they howl about it.

  • @marza339

    @marza339

    10 ай бұрын

    Good point but it's very unlikely that anyone except the Japanese will get directly involved in a Taiwan war. The Chinese will just threaten to sic the North onto South Korea if they look like they'll get involved.

  • @helenkessler6012

    @helenkessler6012

    10 ай бұрын

    Japan has changed. Starting with their constitution. China looms just off the reefs.

  • @giovannipotenza123

    @giovannipotenza123

    10 ай бұрын

    good points sir

  • @user-mu6mq2kd1k

    @user-mu6mq2kd1k

    10 ай бұрын

    Да и китай тоже считает корабли японии и северной кореи своими . И китай тоже получается не один.......😂😂😂😂

  • @user-mu6mq2kd1k

    @user-mu6mq2kd1k

    10 ай бұрын

    And China also considers the ships of Japan and North Korea to be its own . And China also turns out to be not alone.......😂😂😂😂

  • @existentialvoid
    @existentialvoid9 ай бұрын

    The Chinese navy counts coastal patrol boats. If you count the US coast guard and the blue water navy - then your figures would change.

  • @brendatenorio5721
    @brendatenorio572110 ай бұрын

    Beach Boys! Yes, Summertime!

  • @allanvodicka8352
    @allanvodicka835210 ай бұрын

    Thanks Goodfellas. I’m a regular listener and appreciate your expert and varied viewpoints. Speaking of kids, I’m struggling with how to encourage our children to appreciate and pursue political science, history, and economics? Struggling to get my teens to develop a passion. Maybe you know of some books that aren’t as dry as most texts/essays etc? Thanks in advance.

  • @lawjef
    @lawjef10 ай бұрын

    Inflation (headline inflation) peaked and declined thanks to a ~40% reduction in energy prices since the post-Ukraine invasion peak. The benefits of lower energy prices is coming to an end and wages are still growing at its highest rate for 40 years, property prices are starting to accelerate again, etc. Predicting a near term end to core inflation is optimistic, at best

  • @tlindsay1007
    @tlindsay100710 ай бұрын

    More jobs, and higher pay, right now, sounds like the reason inflation isn't coming down, even with higher interest rates. In addition, home prices sored this past month, in many cities. How people are able to afford homes that have risen over 50% in many places over the past 5 years, is unprecedented! Utilities doubled in my state, last winter. Property taxes, of course, are now way up. With higher interest rates, a huge portion of the population can no longer afford to buy, and rent has gone up, too. The stock market continues it's rise. Gas prices are up, for the summer. Food goes up with gas prices. But, inflation is down? Something is very amiss.

  • @Main.Account
    @Main.Account10 ай бұрын

    Fed using employee (super-lagging indicator) to drive monetary policy. What could go wrong?

  • @bretrudeseal4314
    @bretrudeseal431410 ай бұрын

    Inflation has gone no where except up. The fact that the trajectory is slowing in increase is not the same as no inflation. Inflation can't be fixed as long as Congress is set to spend the absurd amounts of money they are planning to spend.

  • @Main.Account
    @Main.Account10 ай бұрын

    Fed using employee (super-lagging indicator) to drive monetary policy that slows the supply response to a fiscally-caused problem. What could go wrong?

  • @mikespindler7250
    @mikespindler725010 ай бұрын

    Inflation is an event, and has a cumulative effect. Inflation accelerated prices almost 18%, where it stays today.

  • @grahamgibson4669
    @grahamgibson466910 ай бұрын

    John, help me with this question on inflation. We keep talking about the latest number and celebrating the fact it's dropping, it's a 12 month year on year number, but we never mention the total inflation number over the years which is most important. What is the total inflation number since 2020 because that number is the one that really erodes wages and spending power. If inflation was 6% at the end of 2021 say, and was 6%, again, at the end of 2022 then the total inflation, over that time, is much greater than the inflation numbers we celebrate. I suspect for you three guys, as for me, that our net worth is such that the inflation number does not really effect us but I do worry that it does effect the poor. Does 2.9% inflation rate for last month really mean anything for basic wage families over the last two years? I suspect not. Why don't we talk about a two or three year inflation number and the associated wage changes during the same time? I never see it published. I realize rate of change is important but it's not the whole story.

  • @anonymousonlineuser6543
    @anonymousonlineuser654310 ай бұрын

    At 6:00 I think I realised why FED is raising rates that will not affect inflation in any way but will tank the stock market. Fed is raising rates to make all the BOND holders whole. And that is the way for FED to fortify the banks that hold the bonds to avoid collapses like Silicone Bank. So FED is willing to sacrifice the broader market and get us into recession to avoid further banking trouble. Nothing has been systemically resolved since 2008 collapse. With commercial RE on the precipice of a disaster FED is hedging.

  • @anthonyrussell5718
    @anthonyrussell57189 ай бұрын

    Even the high net worth and ultra high net worth people worry about money, just in different ways. There's no way around inflation. There's no way around recessions. Stop looking for a solution that doesn't exist and invest more money. Major indexes booked their worst yearly performance since 2008 thanks to drivers like the recession, war, hiked interest rate and inflation which so far doesn’t seem to be easing off, so I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy or do I wait?

  • @jdzentrist8711
    @jdzentrist871110 ай бұрын

    i've turned the sound off because I'm not into economics that much. Did any of you see the FOX News segment today, on how the price of gas has figured into the recent history of election outcomes? It jibes with the propadeutics of Reagan's epoch-making question in that famous debate, "Are you better off now, than you were four years ago?" That is the only kind of economics I can understand.

  • @jdzentrist8711

    @jdzentrist8711

    10 ай бұрын

    That said, if this Independent had to predict a winner, he'd say Biden. It is only a gut feeling at this point. But Biden & Company (some brilliant people) seem to be doing some things right. The IRA has turned out to be just that, "inflation reducing." People are going to be feeling everything and noticing everything and voting on the basis of whether basically the country is going in the right direction.

  • @robertibert9269
    @robertibert926910 ай бұрын

    So my clan just got back from the mountains, highs of 75! We should open up mining environmentally friendly. We should put out universities on carbon capture and storage methods, build some hydrogen cars and in the process re-invent oil and export that new tech to the world. Build up the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines. And press for righteousness among our citizens and youth!

  • @BigDawgDavao
    @BigDawgDavao10 ай бұрын

    HR is diametrically opposite on the Ukraine war to other military guys like Scott Ritter and Douglas Macgregor. I would like to see them debate the status.

  • @coopoylozenge5964

    @coopoylozenge5964

    9 ай бұрын

    Come on. The criminal Scott Ritter does not possess the credentials to face HR. Maybe others do, but not that prize idiot.

  • @plangbro
    @plangbro10 ай бұрын

    I’d like to offer Mr. Ferguson something for his repertoire of options of how the war may end. The Russian army will do what the German army did in the fall of 1918. The German army did the math (how many Americans were arriving each month), and decided there was no way to win. As Mr. Ferguson notes in “The Pity of War”, the German army still inflicted more casualties than they received. The difference was, more were surrendering. I doubt Russian soldiers would surrender en masse, with home so close. When Russian soldiers do the math, (endless, high-tech western aid vs paltry Russian replenishment, and little rationale for the war), they may well drift back to mother Russia. In fits and starts and splotches.

  • @TheVietnameseDevil
    @TheVietnameseDevil10 ай бұрын

    why does Krugman still think any of us take him seriously?

  • @defective6811

    @defective6811

    10 ай бұрын

    Cognitive dissonance

  • @dedetudor.

    @dedetudor.

    10 ай бұрын

    He is a gaslighter... They're afraid to address the WEF 4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION and the GREAT RESET..... What a bunch of duds. Gross.

  • @edreeves121
    @edreeves12110 ай бұрын

    Put vacation chat on separate venue.

  • @Friedrichsen
    @Friedrichsen10 ай бұрын

    The conclusion of this conversation seemed a bit tasteless after speaking about such grave matters.

  • @charlesdavis3802
    @charlesdavis380210 ай бұрын

    not to quibble but the number of hulls of PLA is unlikely to be comparable to USN.

  • @kp6215
    @kp621510 ай бұрын

    I told you so that a recession would happen because of overproduction and inflation. Why doesn't Hoover have Michael C Hudson, economics?

  • @patrickwalsh8997
    @patrickwalsh89979 ай бұрын

    I happily folow your podcast Seeking the rare and rarer conservative i.e. Team Normal Republicans AKA RINOs That will not waste too much time on cultural wars And keep an eye out for the future of the ship and shape of State Now I understand that the military guy wants more weapons And that fills an important role in society But he does represent a specialised fringed interest Like an environmental party or a more socialist one Fringes, like on a rug serves an essential role But taking control of government Is just making a big hole in your carpet And this goverment loses it's purpose (Like not even bothering having an electoral platform) The sugestion that America needs more ships Because China is incrasing their fleet Reflects just a very bad case of inflatable neighbor America has a military budget that encompasses the budget of all 8 other major military When America is a nuclear power Which means as we found out recently with the Ukraine conflict NOBODY is going to invade/attack a nuclear country Actually, to please the rabid 2nd amendment proponent The only weapon, ever that actually saved and is saving lives Is the nuclear bomb All others have a direct correlation between quantity and death The 78 years of grossly inflated US military budget Could and should have been used to improve American society And international development That would have improved life in quantity and quality In the sense that less people would have been killed or left to die And that actual development does, in time, decreases overpopulation And tell the General That all is new boats Are going to be so easily sunk By submersible suicide drones It's the doughnut syndrome all over again The future of "self defense" is going to be drones

  • @patrickwalsh8997

    @patrickwalsh8997

    9 ай бұрын

    More ships is not the answer kzread.info/dash/bejne/oH92zpeMfsrXmtY.html

  • @howardlibauer3021
    @howardlibauer30219 ай бұрын

    The recession is like a phantom traffic jam.

  • @ctpierce181
    @ctpierce18110 ай бұрын

    Im in over 50 minutes did I miss discussion about GDP ? How is it possible to talk about a Recission or the lack of one without a GDP discussion.

  • @user-bt8vn3dj6o
    @user-bt8vn3dj6o10 ай бұрын

    Why are Ukrainian losses never mentioned?

  • @kevinwoolley7960

    @kevinwoolley7960

    10 ай бұрын

    Ukraine is in an existential battle. They will take losses because the alternative is Putin as their leader. This is entirely a war of choice for Russia and if the losses are high enough they will leave. And even if they don't leave, they will reconsider other misadventures along there current borders.

  • @Nik-ik8mv
    @Nik-ik8mv10 ай бұрын

    These free traders first outsourced all industry to China, including shipbuilding, and now they worry that China is outpacing US in shipbuilding. But aren't Chinese, Japanese or South Korean ships "cheap"? Guess what, all three subsidize their shipbuilding industries while in US these "free" traders despise nothing more in the world than subsidies, because subsidies make things "inefficient". That's the cost of cheap goods from China that now US will pay forever. But but free market, free trade, free market, free trade!!!!

  • @dougg1075
    @dougg10759 ай бұрын

    Yeah, jobs look great, everybody’s got a job at Dollar General, Circle K, Walmart and just about any gas station you wanna work at. Things are looking up.

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