The Most Insightful Hour in CRE Part 18 with Dr. Peter Linneman
Willy sat down for the 18th installment of the Most Insightful Hour in CRE with renowned economist Dr. Peter Linneman - live from Chicago. Even with inflationary pressure, a looming election, and geopolitical tensions at the forefront, Peter insists, “economies, especially as big as ours, are far more resilient than we think.”
Where do Peter and Willy stand on some of today’s most important topics impacting the economy and CRE? Tune into the replay for an in-depth discussion on niche asset classes and specialty sectors, whether they believe office patterns have fundamentally changed in the U.S., Peter’s take on the possibility of a recession, election implications on the economy, geopolitical tensions and GDP growth, PCE predictions, the Fed’s next move, what it will take to get back to equilibrium in the housing market, and much more.
Key Points In The Webcast:
00:00 Introduction
02:05 Catch-up on current CRE events
04:36 Single-family residence as a niche
07:09 Specialty products for housing
09:45 Office space: productivity data and what’s next
12:49 How Kastle systems are missing small employers
15:49 The mall crisis: Why talk about it?
19:45 The irony of real estate
23:59 The future of the banking sector
27:09 A more tempered look on industrial
30:16 The economic impact of a second Trump presidency
33:32 Ukraine war’s effect on the US economy
38:11 Should we expect real GDP growth?
43:03 Does the Israel-Palestine war affect the economy?
44:04 Why we should focus on consumer price index
48:08 The state of housing rent
49:44 How the elections and inflation will influence Americans moving
54:31 Getting single-family back to equilibrium
59:24 Overview of predictions for next quarter
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Пікірлер: 21
Rule of thumb: When one of these interviews with Linneman is released, put down everything else you're doing and watch it. Right away.
The statement that home prices are not inflationary is something that needs to be pushed back on. A discretionary purchase, like sunglasses, is one and done. For housing, your property taxes RISE with home prices and are an ongoing expense. Not to mention the wealth effect of rising prices, which is somewhat akin to the massive stimulus in 2021, which most people agree was inflationary. And finally, higher home prices allow homebuilders to pay higher wages and maintain similar margins on new home builds. This is in effect what has been happening as productivity PER CONSTRUCTION WORKER has undoubtedly gone down. Now we add one more variable: foreign purchasers who are attracted to (gasp) HIGHER home prices and a stronger dollar. Foreign purchases add to the money supply as opposed to a simple domestic transaction. Thinking is underrated.
@Sportsbob1
8 күн бұрын
Also, what about all the people who have to rent. That is inflationary.
At this point, assume there won't be any rate cuts. The stock market is up this year without them. The Fed needs an economic tool for our next existential crisis--pandemic, war, housing collapse, etc.
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12 күн бұрын
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90% of homeowners with mortgages of 4% or less is an incorrect statistic. Right now it's probably under 60% based on the National Mortgage Database. Apples to apples, about 26% of the population has a mortgage under 4% vs the 38% he indicated. (2/3 homeowners, 2/3 mortgage holders, 3/5 with mortgages 4% or under. The "critical mass" that will cause the lock-in effect to reverse is a lot closer than people think. Also, the household formation numbers as it relates to SFR completions is misleading; ANY housing can absorb new households (pretty ironic since this economist says he's been living in high rises). While SFR completions are down relative to the last cycle peak in 2006, multi-family completions are up significantly (almost 100%). Furthermore, while he is correct about a likely downcycle in housing that will constrain supply, what about that very same downturn in the economy that not only contains inbound immigration, but accelerates outbound immigration? Since natural population growth is stagnating, virtually ALL population growth must come from net immigration. There never is one variable. Housing analysts are pretty linear in their thinking.
No excesses? Meme stocks, 0DTE options, an ongoing boom/bust cycle in multi-family construction, BNPL, private credit.
CRE is toast 😂 I will be coming after the crash 1 silver ounce for a 6 story building