The world's biggest financial players having to fear about losing their profits and revenue is the only thing that may put things sufficiently into motion. What a sad state of affairs…

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

It didn’t stop ExxonMobil back in the mid 70’s. And it won’t stop now or in the future either. Thankfully, I’ll be dead by the time it gets really rough.

@markheatherington8367

6 ай бұрын

Well said

@ewanlee6337

6 ай бұрын

Sadly a pretty normal state of affairs too.

@iloveprivacy8167

6 ай бұрын

We're going to be the only species to wipe ourselves out because it wasn't cost-effective to keep the planet livable. Maybe blowing it up to make way for a galactic highway isn't such a bad idea, after all? 🤦🏻‍♀️

@JohanThiart

6 ай бұрын

They will make a buck either way. They are not the victims of climate change, they will make sure that the money side of town gains the benefits that can accrue from climate change.

In the US alone, here's a sampling of what "sensible money men" have brought us, many of which aren't even mentioned any more. 1) entire forests of cedar chopped down for pencils in 19th century Florida, 2) stripping of _all_ topsoil in many areas of the Great Plains in the 19th and early 20th century, 3) dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico from fertilizer runoff flowing down the Mississippi, 4) drying out of the desert Southwest because all the water in the Colorado is allocated, 5) lakes and rivers on fire in the 1960s and 70s, 6) housing built on toxic waste dumps - anyone remember Love Canal? 7) coastline mangrove forests almost gone because of residential over development, 8) ozone holes, 9) cancer increases and animal extinctions from DDT, 10) huge gyres of plastic floating in our oceans, and on an on and on. Even _without_ considering global warming, "sensible money" has mostly left us with a filthy, depleted environment.

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

You left out so much, but you’re spot on. Sad...isn’t it.

@antonyjh1234

6 ай бұрын

We all live in a monetary system that we have all abused the earth with. Blaming money men because they are at the peak of the heap while the heap still emits and the heap doesn't know of any change that keeps money flowing, and the heap thinks it can't survive without money, is wrong. " Money Men " were always going to have somebody to replace them, considering our govts are complicit in the destruction....and I'm not from US, just what's happening in the US, isn't alone but how do we get out of a system of profit?

@jerredhamann5646

6 ай бұрын

Well those problems coupd be written off as externalities at least from the position of wall street cause the damage was mainly local/regional and far away but u simiply cant externalize a disruption the size of the entire planet and the intensity of the disruptions are going to increase so if ur looking to invest at least in the medium to long term this new reality must be taken in or else see reduction in profit. Previous environmental issues were nto big enough to reduce profit. We are already seeing insurance companies refuse to insure house in part of the gulf and the west due to increased wildfire and hurricane risk. A lot has been said about industry coming back to america and the rustbelt but one of the reasons they are returning to rustbelt is not just its cheap and the people there are overskilled for what they are paid but they are isolated from climate change being temerate inland and wet

@TornSoul062473

6 ай бұрын

I feel like you could have taken that list so much further if had wanted to.

@sjsomething4936

6 ай бұрын

@@jerredhamann5646 you’ve hit the nail on the head… those were externalized costs as far as the fossil fuel (and other) industries were concerned. Which is true for a period of time… until eventually the bill comes due. And all of humanity has to pay it. And also extremely unfortunate is the reality that the people who were the PR teams and spin doctors / strategists during the 80s until today will most likely be dead by the time things really start to get bad, it’s their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren who will face the first brunt of the reality of the changing climate and disappearing coastline.

A couple years ago I communicated much of the substance of this video to an oil and gas man working in Texas. He knew the information in this video because the fossil fuel industry has understood the science of the real climate consequences of fossil fuel production from the 70s, and subsequently. I couldn't understand his lack of concern. His explanation startled me: "I'll be dead by then". He may be correct. The question I have is, how many humans and other life forms is he taking with him. Greed is not good; denial is not a river in Egypt.

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

If you didn’t purchase that oil mans products, he would be out of business. Unless you’re actively engaged in “primitive living”, you’re part of the problem.

@incognitotorpedo42

6 ай бұрын

@@blaydCA Dropping out of the normal world doesn't really help. If you aren't making an effort to steer your country's politics toward clean energy, maybe then you are part of the problem. If you're in the US, vote for Democrats. The Republicans are mostly fascists who are in bed with fossil fuel companies. Voting third party doesn't help.

@timeenoughforart

6 ай бұрын

Congratulation your figured out why nothing is going to be done about Global Warming. We can't even take a shit without adding to the problem. Oh joy!@@blaydCA

@DSAK55

6 ай бұрын

@beautifulgirl219 by the way, Egypt and Ethiopia will go the war over the Nile

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

@@DSAK55 which means in fact in will be the river DeNile. 😁

Lets go. Finally someone with a large audience talking about this. Thank you so much for the good work.

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

Thanks for your support :-)

@johgude5045

6 ай бұрын

@@JustHaveaThink MOST UNDERRATED VIDEO. There is so much you say that must get public

@DrakeN-ow1im

6 ай бұрын

@@johgude5045 ...but the money lenders and the politicians in their pockets do not want you to know. "An inconvenient truth" .

@mickeyhadley4281

6 ай бұрын

@QuinnOsgood-rj7wz - What a completely useless and inane comment.

@POTATOEMPN

6 ай бұрын

Bro, people with millions of subs have talked about this stuff.... Just because YOU, one person with one set of eyes, haven't seen those other videos...it doesn't mean nobody else is talking about it....

The late climatologist Stephen Schneider of Stanford used the insurance analogy in his talks. He'd ask his audience how many had home insurance against fire despite the fact that house fires are very rare. He advocated for climate policies as risk mitigation and argued that the stakes for humanity are maximally high.

5:00 If you put your feet in the freezer and your head in the oven, on average, you should be reasonably warm. Way back in Accounting 101 we were taught the Principle of Conservatism. When preparing financial statements it is generally safer to err on the side of : Understating assets, Overstating liabilities, Understating revenue, and Overstating expenses. It's a principle that should be used more broadly.

@bruce-le-smith

6 ай бұрын

My grandparents grew up on farms in the middle of nowhere in the early 20th century, no electricity, no plumbing, no healthcare. This was the sort of accounting they used to manage their farms, especially after the experiences of the 1930s. My grandpa once told me a story to illustrate how bad it got in the 30s. They raised cattle as per normal, shipped them to the big city via the trains, had them auctioned, and all they got back was a bill for shipping, feeding, and auctioning services. After that they hunkered down and just ate their own beef. What worries me most is that with world population what it is today, and the surge in the digital revolution, it may not be that simple any more. We can't eat social media and cryptocurrency.

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

@@bruce-le-smith I hope you learned some farm skills from your grandparents. I grew up in a farm community, so I'm all set now that I purchased some viable land with that being a possible necessity. I wasn't planning on being self-sufficient, but here we are ...farm barter.

@johndododoe1411

6 ай бұрын

​@@blaydCAFarming skills won't help when the weather changes and your farmland becomes a dessert or a lake and the only food is what is grown in a previously useless area, especially with no money to buy imported food and no ability to cross the border to the place that has food .

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

@@johndododoe1411 Many semi-arid desert Cacti are edible. Reborn Lakes can be stocked with aquatic creatures. Future generations are going to have to adapt or die off. "I'd walk a mile for a Camel" may turn into "I'd walk miles with a Camel"

@trueriver1950

6 ай бұрын

An even better example of how misleading averages can be is the observation that the average adult human has approximately one testicle and one (developed) breast. Makes you glad not to be average, I suppose

On the stage front and center at a climate conference in Vancouver, Canada in 2013 were the insurance companies. And as an analyst, it seems to me, oh yes, these would be one of the best sources of accurate climate data. So I totally concur with this presentation, and with the satirical inference to the lack of ability or intelligence to act on reality by our humans species.

@sjsomething4936

6 ай бұрын

The fossil fuel industry also has actuaries and scientists, and I often wonder how they feel about the PR people being given massive budgets to sell the concept that the world isn’t in serious trouble, even while their figures and projections are showing the exact opposite.

@lohphat

6 ай бұрын

What do you expect from a global leader like the US which has a significant percentage of the population -- WHO VOTE -- choosing "policy makers" based upon the world being only 6000 years old and that Jeebus rode on the backs of dinosaurs?

@MrkBO8

6 ай бұрын

I spoke with a couple of solar installers and these young electricians couldn't understand why society didn't take the issue seriously. Me, speaking as an environmental scientist who changed careers to finance who changed careers to sell solar systems told them to be patient because when the actuaries run the numbers, insurance for whole regions will be refused and then it will be taken seriously.

@Sjb-on5xt

6 ай бұрын

@@MrkBO8 For solar energy to work properly it depends where on the Earth you are located. In the Northern hemisphere, such as the UK, a good 5 months of little to no Sun. And I've yet to see one work at night, without batteries to store what it collects during the day.

@MrkBO8

6 ай бұрын

Here in Australia, just from supplying power to your own home during the day excluding the govt incentives and also ignoring the value of exported power the financial return is still ~25%. Including these its often 40-50%. Batteries decrease the financial efficiency of the system & I have been ethically opposed to selling them since day 1. Good for emergency power supply, not for saving money. Gov't is putting in large scale batteries anyway-which I predicted they would do years ago in my sales pitch to not sell batteries while selling solar systems.@@Sjb-on5xt

I'm from Bangladesh 🇧🇩, my entire country will disappear. It seems that we're only at the mercy of the global leaders. Yet, unsurprisingly, our life also seems worthless to the world. That's why most of this regions countries dearly believe in an afterlife, at least if we couldn't live in this world perhaps in the next.

@autohmae

6 ай бұрын

Maybe it helps you some what to know: I'm just someone in Europe, but every time when I think sea level rise, I always first think about Bangladesh with sadness in my heart.

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

Bangladesh is helping to contribute to global warming. Your country is just late to the game.

@muhaiminhossain9747

6 ай бұрын

@@autohmae Empathy is a fundamental human trait, and we truly value your empathy. However, given the increasing complexity of global issues and actions, there are limits to what common individuals can achieve. It's important not to dwel too heavily on matters beyond your control.

@muhaiminhossain9747

6 ай бұрын

@@blaydCA True, as for any other countries who want to have a better life then going back to a struggling past. Might I remind you it a basic human need. There's a idea in my culture: I demean you to hide my own bigger sins. It's crucial to recognize that blaming developing countries for minor (in a global scale) issues doesn't negate the progress accumulated by developed nations. Shouldn't the leading countries lead by example on how to work towards a better world? Complex global issues can't be resolved through mere comments on KZread or social media. These matters require thoughtful and coordinated efforts, policy changes, and international cooperation to make a meaningful impact. I just shared my feelings of fear. Words are easier said then living the reality.

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

@@muhaiminhossain9747 Unfortunately, supposed "first world" countries lead by example, and here we are with unsustainable "living standards" that will decline far faster than they rose. Bangladeshians will probably fare better, even if displaced, because they are more familiar with self sustenance as a population.

Excellent video! Rishi isn't listening to the boring money, but the flashy fossil money men

@theotherandrew5540

6 ай бұрын

Rishi has long ago sold his soul in his bid to remain PM.

@trueriver1950

6 ай бұрын

The only boring money that Rishi is interested in is the money invested in boring for oil

@anthonybaiocchi3028

6 ай бұрын

​@@theotherandrew5540yes, because he is part of the Cabal, and no climate science anywhere, has explained the effects of HAARP or DEW. Until then, with digital Id's and digit currencies, I'll remain a sceptic of climate science. 😉

We can either work together in a proactive and genuinely productive cooperative manner, or we will be working in an evermore reactive and competitive one as resources shrink due to global warming’s steady intensification. The choice is still mankind’s to make - but just barely. Excellent presentation!!!

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

If you’re expecting mankind to save itself, then you haven’t studied mankind’s history much. Mankind is like brewer’s yeast. The end result will be the same be it yeast or mankind. Sorry.

@antonyjh1234

6 ай бұрын

There's no problem with working together, we do it now. If we were proactive we would stop using fossil; fuels immediately where we can, but we can't because everything around us comes from them, your clothes, your seat, the soap and shampoo you use, your food, the device and most likely the energy to get this read ....the list goes on and on and on, look around you and throw everything out that has been produced with or by fossil fuels then tell me which direction we should work together in. This working together mantra means nothing if we don't know what we are all supposed to be doing. We all know we can reduce immediately, it will mean all debt that requires forward emissions of the same amount then it might mean we need to take more drastic measure than some nice sounding words.

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

@@antonyjh1234 I've been "reducing" for a long time. Mend/repair instead of tossing out. Older second hand clothes that are better quality than today's new. Add old and new technology for energy savings. I also avoid products that are over packaged.

@Sjb-on5xt

6 ай бұрын

@@antonyjh1234 Yes, over 6000 products depend on FF. I doubt many understand that giving up FF will reduce their lifestyle back to the middle ages, in much shortened lives, hunger, malnutrition and grinding poverty...for the elites though, that's a different tale. Hungergames comes a very close depiction of how life would be.

@numodular

6 ай бұрын

@@antonyjh1234 You might enjoy studying up on the Thorium Energy Alliance and the resistance they've gotten, from graduating fossil fuels and early nuclear generations to Thorium Reactors (TMSR). Like yourself, they have a couple of genius leaders that have discovered similar to what you've so pragmatically stated here. My posit is more of an educational one, where capitalistic greed keeps general education to the fore, and specialized learning in 'continuing UNeducation', so the masses are more easily addicted to the most profitable industry in human history: fossil fuels. You'd be stunned at how many US politicians that write policy for fossil fuels and nuclear, while also raking in record profits from shares and PAC money. Communist countries are just as corrupt, while only Gen Z, worldwide, can counter them through mass uprising. Good luck with that!

Their are already a LOT of insurance companies in the US in certain states like California and Florida who are NOT willing to insure homes anymore. Which is a huge problem not just because of the risk, but also because a lot of mortgage contracts stipulate that insurance is mandatory.

@faustinpippin9208

6 ай бұрын

so people will stop building big paper houses that are weak and will start building smaller energy efficient eu like houses from "brick" or they will make small houses on wheels that can "hide underground" actually good for the environment, not so much for people who want a big house tho

@robsengahay5614

6 ай бұрын

@@faustinpippin9208I don’t think that they are just refusing insurance on large homes.

@antonyjh1234

6 ай бұрын

There is a lot of insurance being declined in the business world that will be the biggest kicker, smaller houses won't help for the general public overall to the risk of fire, flooding and going underground when the water table is rising won't help unless you want houses popping up like mushrooms.

@etienne8110

6 ай бұрын

At some point owners have to also acknowledge that their houses are just not insurables any longer. Your beach house in florida won t resist rising sea levels, insurance or not. So the insurer does the sensible thing, not wasting money on lost causes.

@dodgygoose3054

6 ай бұрын

Its happening across Australia too but with business as well.

As usual, you presented the case with clarity and substance while challenging us to ".. let's have a think... "

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

Thank you :-)

@reuireuiop0

6 ай бұрын

Well, not just "a" think, but multiple ones. A Wikipedia full of thinks, really

Based on watching this since the 80's I am in the we are past the point of no return camp. The thing that really frustrates me is the lack of understanding about who controls Money. The Private Financial Institutions are not the place the Money comes from, all Money comes from the State. Our Federal Governments can fund the change. We have collectively fallen for the Big Neoliberal Con and relinquished control of the Money to these Private Financial Institutions and that is one of the main reasons we are in this situation. Time is not on our side and we do not have the luxury of doing more studies, we must collectively act. One of the simplest things you can do is contact your Elected Representative and demand that they urgently pass wide ranging Laws that have one Goal, to transition to a Just Society with an Sustainable Economic Framework that can limit the Damage we are facing. If they make excuses Vote them out.

@incognitotorpedo42

6 ай бұрын

If we put all our effort into being "Just", we may fail and everyone will be screwed, but in particular, poor people will be screwed. Anything that improves the climate will help the poor comparatively more than it will help the rich, so helping the climate is automatically "Just". Regarding money, there is a limit to how much money any given state can print. Money needs to be backed by value. If not, printing money just debases the currency, which harms lower and mid income people more than the rich.

@PetefromSouthOz

6 ай бұрын

@@incognitotorpedo42 "printing money just debases the currency, which harms lower and mid income people more than the rich" who told you that?

@howtoappearincompletely9739

6 ай бұрын

@@incognitotorpedo42 Hyperinflation reduces the per-unit value of money, so the more money you have, the more you are harmed by hyperinflation. Unless there is some way that poor people have more money than rich people, I don't see how the poor would be harmed more than the rich by hyperinflation.

Never ceases to amaze me about your ability to help me feel completely calm about the impending doom hovering above our heads currently. Cheers mate

@EmeraldView

6 ай бұрын

😂 indeed

@seditt5146

6 ай бұрын

Because no one in their right mind should actually believes there is any impending doom. Sure, I felt in when I was in first grade and our Weekly Readers were telling us we would all be under water by 2010-2019 tops but over the years the science has become more garbage and the predictions less accurate, something that is a bit of a skill when they can't even get them within the appropriate century. I know you would love to write me off as a denier but understand that is what you have been trained to do. The actual science behind all of this is absolute nonsense. Your data from ice cores, tree rings, and cave stalactites do not even agree with each other and the ice cores everyone holds in such a high regard has a migration rate of dissolved gasses that is measured in millimeters per day. Funny enough, the scientist that did that experiment concluded (there was insubstantial evidence to suggest meaningful migration). That is a massive migration of gas and is due to hydrogen bonding making the surface of ice always a liquid and subsequently this results in anything in a cavity constantly getting mixed with the surrounding ices. If you don't fully understand that science, consider the fact that Glaciers bowl down entire mountains. What makes people believe it does that without mixing? It takes minimal effort to understand the flaws in Climate science, yet it feels like few people even want to try for fear of being a victim of the original cancel culture. Keep in mind, this is all even assuming CO2, which only has a single resonance mode out of many that could work( 1/3 traps heat) even could heat the world as it would be akin to a single drop in an Olympic size pool as far as the ratios in the atmosphere is concerned. The world is so big man would have a very hard hard time effecting anything on a grand scale despite what Ego would lead us to believe.

_"Ah, so we should prevent global extinction because it's financially favorable. Well, now I'm willing."_

@incognitotorpedo42

6 ай бұрын

We really aren't talking about global extinction here.

@onebylandtwoifbysearunifby5475

6 ай бұрын

@@incognitotorpedo42 We really are. The Sixth Great Mass Extinction in Earth history, of 4 Billion years it has held life. 20% of all species: plants, animals, everything- are set to be wiped-out of existence by our carbonization of Earth atmosphere. And when we have the same approximate amount of CO2 as Venus, but Venus is 700 degrees C on its surface due to runaway greenhouse effect... We see clearly why we must not release our sequestered carbon into the atmosphere. (Venus, btw, is Earth's twin in planetary science. Sane size and composition and nearly the same orbit. Main difference is atmospheric CO2.) We cannot ASSUME we will have idyllic stability during the times of this 6th Mass Extinction Event which is human-induced. We could have increased volcanism, solar flaring, meteor events, magnetic pole flips, etc. These events added to the Human-Induced 6th Great Mass Extinction Event could spell the end for the delicate biological conditions Earth currently enjoys. Global Extinction (premature) is very much a possibility here. Mammals have 180 Million years left before surface conditions become uninhabitable as-is. Life is finely balanced, many people don't understand this. Their lack of understanding does not mitigate their destruction they cause nor their destructive behaviors. Ignorance of reality and facts does not magically erase the consequences of their behavior.

15:35 “You don’t say!” Love it. Those crazy actuaries are at it again. Really, this is genius on your part to pair the button down world of financial actuaries with climate science.

Hopefully the actuaries and their fiduciary responsibilities will outweigh the oil, gas, and coal businesses that are actively stirring doubts both in the minds of politicians and in average voter's minds. We're up against a playbook used by big tobacco to delay and delay for decades the serious effects of tobacco use, only this time the planet is the patient. Good points Dave, the urgency of response needs to be based on being risk averse like those insurance and business models rather than looking at the conservative estimates of effects from climate change. Why do I get the feeling that we're not going to get the brakes to hold on this train by 2030? Education and political will are both essential, keep up the good work!! 🌄

@veramae4098

6 ай бұрын

Banks will no longer issue 30 year mortgages on ocean side property in Florida.

@tims9434

6 ай бұрын

How can you make a comment 2 days before the video was posted?

@ThatOpalGuy

6 ай бұрын

due to the actions of the politicians bought by giant corporations, we are not likely going to make a big enough impact, quickly enough, to avoid huge consequences of our fossil fuel addiction. enjoy it while you can.

@diosamurcielaga9418

6 ай бұрын

Time travel...

@MasterBlaster3545

6 ай бұрын

We knew for certain that cigarettes give a lot of people miserable diseases. The climate junkies think it is worse. I don’t believe or disbelieve. This channel is just for those junkies. There is no certain proof that we are going to destroy the world by climate change. We have more chance the oxygen production will stop with the pollution that is going into the world oceans. There is plenty of data to say that the CO2 levels could get to 1000+ppm and still be okay. Maybe there would be change but not extinction. So many believers. What are you? Level headed or in the cult of doom?

Thank You for your time and energy you put into these videos!

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

Glad you like them!

You are an educator. That's what we need, understanding. The lung/atmosphere interface is so delicately balanced. Suppose we woke up one day and nobody on the planet could breath. That would be a game changer..

Where I live you can't get home owners insurance anymore,, they will just simply stop ensuring you. Some areas will turn into a cash and carry society if lenders can't get insurance. I'm sure many of you have noticed the trend of conglomerates buying homes.

I feel like this should be screened to decision makers and professionals in various industries just like An Inconvenient Truth was

@josephlieberz2045

6 ай бұрын

What ever happened to An Convenient Truth? Seems nobody even remembers it and all the negative response it got from those in government. We still get lame responses from our political leaders to this day.

@andrewtrip8617

6 ай бұрын

Worst possible parallel to draw the film turned out to be alarmist propaganda .none of its predictions have born fruit .

@richardgrumbine4867

6 ай бұрын

actually it did a fairly good job… The Associated Press contacted climate scientists who had seen the movie or had read the homonymous book. They said that Gore accurately conveyed the science, with few errors. And some of the things in the book have happened even faster than predicted… a few have not happened yet but are happening as we speak… and while it was a bit political it was not overly partisan..

@andrewtrip8617

6 ай бұрын

@@richardgrumbine4867 it was just the out landish claims that he got wrong .ie The submersion of florida .the large sea level rise the rapid loss of polar ice .etc etc .the mundane stuff we all knew was of course correct .yes the sea-level has been rising quite slowly for the past few thousand years .yes fhe ice has been retreating for 20k years .yes extreme weather costs more money but less lives.even a broken watch is correct twice a day you can crowd round those moments if you choose just don't ask me to join you .

Excellent episode without a company promo in sight. In the USA many state taxes are being spent on providing insurance to that actuaries now refuse because they know what's coming. So if you live on a hill or not near hazardous woodland etc your paying the cover for those lower down the slope or near the woods. It's contentious as you might imagine and shall likely lead to lots of very upset people to say the least. Politicians are kicking the can you know where

@Burnrate

6 ай бұрын

With all those books in the background he's obviously being sponsored by big book.

@larslrs7234

6 ай бұрын

Forest mismanagement among other things. When was the last time you heard of burning down the land in a controlled manner like the natives did?

@incognitotorpedo42

6 ай бұрын

@@larslrs7234 We've been doing controlled burns for ages. When's the last time I heard about it? I dunno, a couple months ago?

@EdSurridge

6 ай бұрын

​@@Burnratethat's a lot further than my present level of skepticism and consequently I find it a bit funny.

@EdSurridge

6 ай бұрын

​@@larslrs7234recently on #JustHaveAThink from memory but the practice is getting more publicity since the Australian catastrophes

This is amazing. Understanding which studies provide unbiased information is increasingly challenging. The influence of vested interests, whether from 'Greenies' or 'big oil,' often clouds the reliability of data. That's why encountering data interpreted by a group focused on assessing risk across diverse industries feels like a breath of fresh air-a welcome departure from the biases that typically accompany such studies

@unicornadrian1358

6 ай бұрын

There is no such thing as an unbiased study. All studies are beholden to their funding sources.

Thank you!! Yes, it is conservative to factor in and prepare worst outcomes. That's so obvious and has always bothered me that many climate professionals shied away from the this approach. Thank you IPCC for missing the mark, over and over again.

@antonyjh1234

6 ай бұрын

How has the IPCC missed the mark, they have given the different pathways for as long as I can remember? It's not their fault govts haven't followed the recommendations.

@LanderMaybe

6 ай бұрын

Scientists look for certainty, politicians equivocate, and good managers prepare for the worst.

@JohanThiart

6 ай бұрын

@@LanderMaybe those who equivocate are politicians….. There is a lot of that going around. Good managers are few and far between! The truth is out there……… the history of climate is written in the rocks.

@Lyra0966

6 ай бұрын

The IPCC has been reluctant to include in thwir assessments the risks associated with methane emissions. But climate scientists know that methane is and will become a significant contributory factor with global warming.

@andrewtrip8617

6 ай бұрын

@@Lyra0966 the methane contribution is far harder to get a handle on mainly because it overlaps water vapour in its effects ,that makes it more prone to error in predictive modelling .scientists are having trouble being consistent about their co2 predictions,methane and water vapour will bury them .

Finally some acceptance of conservative. As a scientist who undertakes risk management, I've been waiting decades for validation

@danshillabeer9523

6 ай бұрын

Risk management approaches, I would suggest, rely on historic data - decades even. Abnormal is the new normal, and as our friends in the insurance industry are showing by their cover abdication, quantifiable risk has left the building as the outcome funnel gets more tuba than clarinet. One thing we all seem to agree on is the abject failure of politicians to grasp the nettle, because stings last more than the current news cycle.

@mikebocchinfuso9437

6 ай бұрын

I think you mean conservation, not conservatives

@nottenvironmental6208

6 ай бұрын

@mikebocchinfuso9437 no conservative, according to the definition, conservatives is a nonsense term used to mislead people into thinking that they conserve but the reality is more people die from fossil fuel use than abortion so I suspect Jesus would focus on conserving life, unlike conservatives who talk about life but actions create death. I'm a scientist and use words according to definition, not political expediency

@nottenvironmental6208

6 ай бұрын

@danshillabeer9523 yes, usually climate change is logarithmic but due to humans is exponential currently thus the new norm is rapidly changing climate 🙄 😳 and both engineering solutions become less under this reality as do ability to predict. Thus we should assume the worst, about 10m by 2070 and 5 degrees by about then and act as all food crops fail above 3°c

@the_expidition427

6 ай бұрын

No. Conservatives cared for the environment 50 years ago and once again is making a stand

The optimist in me says this might actually be the wake up call for corporations and the ultra rich to realise change is needed right now in order to protect their assets (in which I would include their consumer base). The pessimist in me says they will probably just find a way to make more money and watch the world burn.

@op4000exe

6 ай бұрын

My optimistic part keeps coming back to that, while ultra rich are doing bad things, they too have to live with the consequences. And as such, I imagine that they'll (maybe) one day realise the folly of their ways, though I do wish they'd do it a lot faster, not to say 60 years ago.

@MoreLifePlease

6 ай бұрын

​@@op4000exeI suspect some of them, at least, still think they'll be able to buy their way out of cataclysm. Find someplace on Earth minimally affected by the destruction and deprivation to come and establish a fortress of the privileged there and ride it out. If so, it could mean they just wouldn't care as much as we, the not-so-privileged, think they should. Some may even believe that overpopulation has been the cause of much of the disaster and may therefore view the deaths of 6 or 7 billion of us to be a net good for the survivors: themselves, of course.

@theoldguy9329

6 ай бұрын

The change is likely just don't invest your money. Hold tight to real things. The bulk of the issues around the world are not solved by tinkering at home, so they know that they cannot satisfy shareholders and do real things.

@plateoshrimp9685

6 ай бұрын

All evidence that I can see indicates that the pessimist in you is right.

@antonyjh1234

6 ай бұрын

This is the problem!! You don't offer a solution, your discussion is not geared towards a solution, so if you don't know what solutions should be discussed, and the ultra rich don't, you just complain therefore say nothing. * Guarantee 99,9% of people reading this haven't reduced their overall consumption 40% over the last two decades as has been said the whole time. If there has been somebody who got solar panels they probably spent the money they saved on other consumption in a rebound choice that meant nothing changed overall.

This is a point of view that hadn't occurred to me and puts things into a different perspective. Thanks for bringing it up.

Great video, Dave. One of your best to date. I've detected a shift in your tone over the time I've been watching your videos. Understandable, given the ever-worsening data and increasingly panicked voices emanating from the scientific community. Your videos stand as proof that one can convey gravity without sounding bleak. Thanks again.

Dave, the risk management discussion of this post is well grounded and brilliant. You clearly show how governments logically build excessive delays in their planning that leads us all to disastrous results. On top of your area of interest, excess debt at the government, corporate and household levels severely limits future options.

Thank you for another great video. And you're right, of course. It totally makes sense to prepare for (and try to avoid) worst case outcomes instead of constantly hoping things won't be as bad as we think. The root problem is those government reports are meant to manage people's feelings of alarm, not manage risk. The politicians that commission and sometimes read them are looking for ways to reassure the electorate they're doing a good job. It would be like electing a building inspector or fire marshal instead of hiring one - so every once in awhile they'd come and take a look at your building and reassure you that it certainly won't collapse today, and don't worry, we're on track to buy enough fire extinguishers to put out any blaze by 2030. We're starting to see some companies (notably ones not involved in the extraction of fossil fuels) just beginning to acknowledge the real climate risks that we're facing, in the trend of insurance companies no longer offering flood insurance to some fairly large areas. This trend is probably going to become more and more widespread as actuarial types become aware of the reality their clients are facing and start pricing in risks more accurately. Maybe that will finally get the rich people to wake up and tell their lobbyists to light a fire under the politicians. Forget about Bangladesh. my skyscraper is at risk!

I’m glad to be 55 and able to have enjoyed some beautiful places on this planet. The young people of this world have already missed so much and the planet is rapidly dying. I feel sorry for them.

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

I agree.

@johndododoe1411

6 ай бұрын

​@@TobinMiller-wt6yfThe point is that most of us can't save them . I've been trying for decades to limit the damage I control, but others obviously haven't .

@trueriver1950

6 ай бұрын

​​@@TobinMiller-wt6yfI'm with @kasondaleigh on this one. As a 68-year old I've spent the first half of my adult life actively protesting nuclear weapons, including trying to physically stop the fourth Trident sub being delivered to the Royal Navy. Since the late nineties I have been protesting against our insane bursting of planetary boundaries; in my case starting with the campaign against the second runway at Manchester. All those actions have been motivated by concern for the following generations. I wouldn't call it pity, but concern At the same time: I'm glad to have seen the shelf ice in the Antarctic before it's all gone; I'm glad to have been able to see what future generations are likely to miss out on. Just one example: I have flown just five times since 1990, seven times if you count two low level sight-seeing flights in small planes. My last flight was to a peace conference in 1998. I haven't flown at all this century, and won't unless electric planes become a thing. Likewise: I last bought a car in 1995 and stopped using it soon after. I won't buy another one till I can afford an electric car To sum up: Feelings of sorrow for what our grandchildren will miss are not the same as pity, and for at least some of us in my generation motivated us to take action. You used the word "pity", the word in the OP was "sorry". Sorrow, and dear of getting sorrow, and even crease of the guilt that can come from expectations of feeling sorrow, can all be positive motivations. There are more of us in my generation who feel as I do than those who chased after the money. We offer them in terms of opinion polling and so on. That doesn't, and didn't, give us the power. Because the electoral system is not designed to follow public opinion, despite what we are told. When your generation has successfully seized power away from the big money, THEN you can lecture us about what we should have done differently. I hope you see you succeed: I would love to know what else I could have done if I had thought of it at the time. Tell us what "meaningful action" we could have done from where we are in the pecking order. Till then you won't succeed if you spend energy blaming those who were working for the thoughts you say you want even before your parents were born...

@reuireuiop0

6 ай бұрын

​@@TobinMiller-wt6yf Younger folks I know, are enjoying themselves to death, traveling a 1000 miles by plane just for the weekend, or all around the world to visit the cool bucket list spots, buying clothes they wear twice, electronic gadgets that go out the door before the year is out. They emit more carbon in 5 years than their grandparents in a lifetime. If there's young to be pitied, is those in poor countries , that don't stand a chance of making it to decent circumstances, and will suffer the overheat temps in a very near future - I'm 61, but in quite sure I'll be seeing some heat die off in the global South soon.

@Sesj02

6 ай бұрын

What's crazy about being young right now is knowing we might not have the same quality of life that our parents or grandparents had when we become mid age

Brilliant analysis again as always! Thank you for doing the hard work for us. I had been wondering the same for a while but short of time to do the reading. As an engineer in infrastructure I'm massively concerned we're doing too little too slowly to make our infrastructure resilient and life as we know it is heading backwards due to climate change. Your work will help me to raise the importance of what's infront of us. Thank you

I greatly appreciate your perspective and bring this information forward. In a way it makes me glad I am 72 and got to enjoy this wonderful planet before my generation destroys it. I do fear for my children and their children.

@fifthager

6 ай бұрын

Me? Same age, same fears. What a legacy.

@incognitotorpedo42

6 ай бұрын

It wasn't your generation that destroyed it. It was the last ten generations, including most of the youngsters of today.

@antonyjh1234

6 ай бұрын

Why do you think your generation destroyed it? I know that's the current zeitgeist but I disagree with it, the second world war meant diesel and industry like the first world war never meant, they still used horses at the start of the second and couldn't do without them in the first. US industry being the one largely untouched because they entered late meant they had an industry that was up and running and then fossil fuels came along with plastics that come along with each barrel. A lot of boomers as kids never had the electrical equipment that todays kids expect worldwide, I've had a fridge running 24/7, my entire life, I've had hot and cold running water in the house and a toilet that wasn't outside, what I call white privilege, my entire life. A lot of boomers can't say the same, overall boomers have caused less pollution, sure they might have been alive at a time when massive amounts of energy were able to be accessed and the world has a result from that but blame? Where does that lie and would any other generation have done it differently, use an energy source that replaces wood. * That would be like blaming every generation alive at a time we got more sun at the end of an ice age, 50% of people are alive today because of synthetic fertilisers, the pollutant that comes from nitrogen as a gas is 300 times worse than co2 while methane is 23, should we blame all those people for being alive or the people that enabled it, because new tech meant they were able to be?

@ravenken

6 ай бұрын

I will admit we did drop the ball since we had the knowledge but let money win out. That said, you can point a lot of fingers at what got us to this point. It took generational efforts (multiple) to kill off a planet. We have literally altered the chemistry of the atmosphere and soil. We have no idea of the destruction we have caused on the microscopic level (i.e. bottom of the food chain). What was once a world abundant in life...

@dougwelch8890

6 ай бұрын

I guess that us boomers deserve a significant amount of blame because we knew and basically did nothing. It was in the 1970's when climatologists were raising alarms but we chose not to heed them. We could have done more, much more. compounding hte problem we didn't instill a conservation ethic in our children. We indulged them with all the things we didn't have, all the new toys.

Well done, thank you. I like how you approached your reply to your critics. I agree if the dusty back office bean counters are concerned about the data and statistics, then we should be too. I would not have had the patience to be so kind to your critics, you are a better person than I am.

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

Bless you. Thanks :-)

What a wonderful summary -- full of all the right qualifiers and descriptors, such as "complex," "interconnected," and "cascading." The people who don't trust the climate scientists may just trust the actuaries, whose work is increasingly concluding with "uninsurable risk." ~ Randall R. Scott

"Just Have a Think" should be changed to "Just Have a Sweaty, Panicky Waking Nightmare." Little more accurate.

I've always felt that things are actually worse than the IPCC claims, because of the various blind spots that surface from time to time that the models aren't considering. I never thought that an actuarial analysis would be THAT different from that of the scientific community, and that their perspectives were SO different. Thanks for this eye-opening perspective!

@antonyjh1234

6 ай бұрын

Could you please explain what you mean by worse than what the ipcc claims, they have published the different pathways for as long as I can remember, this isn't any different to one of the pathways, the worst one, but still a published pathway

@jimthain8777

6 ай бұрын

@@antonyjh1234 We've always been told that we are no where near the worst pathway, even though it is included. Reality says that isn't necessarily the case. I've heard more than one scientist point out more than one missing feedback that our current climate models aren't factoring in. There are reasons they aren't factored in, but outside the modeling community, and the scientific community, very few people seem to realize this, fewer still understand the possible unintended consequences of NOT factoring the one or more of these feedbacks in. Basically put, if you don't have critical data in your model, it can become worthless. Even worse than worthless, if it lulls people into a false sense of security.

@antonyjh1234

6 ай бұрын

Politicians and the media are not the IPCC, different scientists saying something opposite of the published data by the IPCC have nothing to do with the IPCC though. Feedbacks aren't able to be modelled correctly, but we know at the fastest rate it will take 330 years for 10% of the ice to melt at 5c. 500 or so at median rate. These things are known, they can be worked out methodically and there be an end result, what you are talking about are unknown's in as far as their immediate results. No-one doubts, well I don't we are heading to crazy heats and the Sahara will have rain again but at the fastest rate it will take 2149 years before 100% of the ice melts, what data are you proposing is critical that people should consider today? @@jimthain8777

@NapoleonGelignite

6 ай бұрын

@@antonyjh1234- the IPCC is politically compromised, with nations like Saudi Arabia, the US and Russia vetoing ‘bad news’ unless it is so watered down as to be meaningless. Money comes first, and science second when it comes to ‘inter-governmental’ anything.

I watch all of your videos but I am particularly thankful for this one, The conservative nature and averaging does create a huge gap in reported timelines and what we actually experience. Pointing that out can be hard to do because it is easy for dissenters to use 'antiscientific' attacks. Thank you for tackling this topic.

I've been advocating this perspective for the past 10 years, having developed a farm here in Hawaii on the island of Kauai since 1993 I have witnessed changes that are persisting in the growth expression of food crops and fruit trees. One aspect of the micro-climate is the evaporative rate, which would affect the plants and trees transpiration rate, which I have observed has increased. As a result of the increased evaporation rate, the stomata of the leaves of plants go into a "conserve water" mode which indirectly affects the growth and production of the plant and/or tree.. This is increased evaporation rate is reflected in the ground firmness, 25 years ago it would take 3 days for the ground to dry enough to mow or drive on it. Now it takes 1 day before the ground is not too muddy to drive on it. Another aspect is the top 6 inches of soil/grass covered ground is sometimes lacking in persistent water saturation, which can be detected when applying a shovel. The interaction of the microclimate with plant response is very complicated. There were many key aspects presented in this video, one of which is the declining snow packs all over the world, which provide the daily water needs of many different populations. I have mentioned to friends that it doesn't matter how much money one has, when there are no fish available, or food stuff due to less productive farm yields, you can't purchase that which is not there. For me this is a climate emergency, and like the national debt, the issue (can) keeps being kicked down the road. No one wants to "upset the apple cart" (economy)

Thank you for pulling this together and ending with a laugh. Given where we are headed I need a good laugh.

@atomictraveller

5 ай бұрын

this is da dawning of da age of a hairyus age of a hairy us a hairy us a hairy us

For a sober appreciation of the level of denialism you only have to read the comments columns of the London Daily Telegraph online. The paper used to be the news outlet for the more intelligent readership, together with the Times, but now appears to be the province of the Ostrich Fraternity section of the Denial Cult.

You have an odd definition shameless plagiarism Dave, I think most people would consider it a citation if you are telling us what book you've got it from! 😅Thanks for the nice content, as always =)

@JohnnyWednesday

6 ай бұрын

That's when you know somebody cares about the principle behind a law rather than just caring they don't get in trouble.

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

True enough. Just a little bit of playful self-deprecation I guess ;-)

@extraincomesuz

6 ай бұрын

As an English teacher, I've seen enough theses with plagiarism to last me a lifetime and this isn't it! Dave gets the word out, but keeps people's trust too, imagine that!🎉 Great content as always!!

Digging deep for the specific facts, well done!! Thanks for sharing!

Great commentary on the boring reports as always, Thanks Dave!

@tims9434

6 ай бұрын

How can you make a comment on a video 3 days before it's posted?

@cclambie

6 ай бұрын

@@tims9434 I'm a Patreon, so I get early access...

@ThatOpalGuy

6 ай бұрын

@@tims9434 hes a warlock.

@autohmae

6 ай бұрын

@@tims9434 probably a Patreon support, the video was probably posted as 'unlisted' on Patreon. The date you see is the publication date'

In a culture where 'the market' rather than governments increasingly call the tune, perhaps this perspective will have increased leverage. Fascinating presentation, thank you.

This presentation makes more sense than anything I've ever heard. Great explanation. Thank you. Well done. Much to digest.

great video again, and food for thought. Governments will always follow the money and listen to the money men. We need more of them to speak up.

2080 - 2090 is far to distant for the vast majority of people to worry about who are sweating about this months bills let alone Carbon Budgets and Planetary Boundaries, they are more worried about keeping the roof above their families head next year if they don't pay the mortgage. We will never progress the debate let alone drive the change unless we take the masses with us, unless the majority buy into this, we wont change fast enough or make a meaningful difference. In the last 12 months we have gone backwards in my opinion. It seems to me that the human race is facing extinction level risks from many angles several of its own making, Climate Change has a long list of Grim Reapers in the queue ahead of it, not least WW3.

@incognitotorpedo42

6 ай бұрын

You're absolutely correct that we need to bring the masses along with us. I don't agree that we are facing human extinction. That's simply not in the cards. We might lose a few hundred million or even a billion, but humanity will remain. Don't be a doomer, because that leads to nihilism which is not helpful.

@timeenoughforart

6 ай бұрын

How is Nuclear War not an extinction level risk? Doomerism doesn't necessarily lead to nihilism. Most "doomers" I know are screaming for action. Let them scream. That is more than most people. @@incognitotorpedo42

@mrpaul5726

6 ай бұрын

You are entitled to your opinion, but don't tell me what to be or do because my opinion is you are WRONG@@incognitotorpedo42

Thank you for the work you do. Extra points for how human you manage to stay through the communication of these worrying news. I admire your spirit and attitude and find both very inspirational. May I ask about your educational background? You have a very sober approach to the topics at hand

Many big insurers like Zurich, FM- Global, Munich RE and others have launched big programs for predicting climate changes. And remember, those bet on risk and they are profit driven😅

Thanks so much for doing this work. This is the content we need

Another excellent piece and I love the idea of fiduciary duty obligation. That's a nice bit of jujitsu.

Good to hear Actuarial perspectives. Please can you do another video summarizing Nate Hagen's work which includes a sobering take on the difficulties facing climate adjustment given the growing energy demands of societies, the link of GDP to energy (oil/gas) & the competition to hold onto remaining oil reserves now that peak cheaply accessible oil is +- history

Thank you for the work you do bringing science to the masses. I for one am better for it. And hopefully we’ll all be able to be better for it by taking action!

As always you enlighten us. Thank you for that. Question; do you ever or have you ever done any videos on a coming ice age?

What an excellent idea. Thanks for sharing this information on your outstanding channel

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

My pleasure!

The fact that bean counters run the world shouldn't be a scoop, but it bears repeating.

It is so good to see / hear the language of conservative risk management applied to this problem as it should be. I am fed up to the back teeth with political conservatives who've talked themselves into extremely radical positions.

Coming back to this after 6 months. Didn't notice the graph showing 100% damages to GDP at 3C the first time around. Also fascinating to look at a video from 6 months ago that confidently talks about 1.2 degrees. Now the numbers are in, and the last 12 months have averaged 1.61 degrees above 1850-1900, or 2.1 degrees above pre-industrial. So even in a video that's about the minimisation by the IPCC, the IPCC minimisation had poisoned the narrative.

Thank you Dave for this particularly illuminating analysis. Perhaps a window of opportunity may open when the profit motive can no longer attract investment nor misallocate remaining resources. Perhaps when big money loses its grip, governance could actually begin to serve the crucial needs of community, humanity and the viability of the planet

@infinitejest441

6 ай бұрын

Never gonna happen. Money is power.

@paulzozula1318

6 ай бұрын

​@@infinitejest441I know what you mean. Pure hopium. The numbskulls are so obsessed with power and profit that they won't relent advantage no matter how egregious it is to others and even if the consequences include their own self destruction, misperceptions of hubris, paraphrased from Kenneth Galbraith's book written in the 1970s titled "the age of uncertainty"

Excellent video! This topic has generally been overlooked, and it’s time for people to start thinking of real world consequences of climate change.

"Maybe it's all just fear mongering, and we just need some dispassionate analysis on it.' "Well, here, I found a risk management note that goes out of its way to state that the worst case scenarios of other risk managers is not worst case enough. And that this presented worst case scenario isn't even factored into any other models." Somehow, I don't think this defeats those accusing it of fear pron.

Great and useful analogy and nice graphics for dangers of averaging at 4:15

Here in the Netherlands we rely on our rivers for our fresh water supply. What would happen if the sea level rises by a single meter into our rivers that have basically *no* elevation? You probably end up with 17 million people who have no water to drink. 💀

@trueriver1950

6 ай бұрын

In Vietnam and Bangladesh the choices are to move or persish, as Dave says in the video (around 10:55 to 11:11). But... I think the Dutch have the culture and the resources to develop the third option. Of all the nations in the world you guys are most likely to successfully raise the existing dykes and build new ones to keep the land your forefathers reclaimed from the sea. Windmills to pump River water uphill into oceans is not new tech in the Netherlands, as it is everywhere else. But... You can't wait for the floods to come before you start building the sea walls. I tactfully suggest it is time for you to demand that you government starts the necessary work...

@trueriver1950

6 ай бұрын

I might reword the learnéd actuaries last words to say "... it will be exceedingly difficult to find any living financiers to provide financial returns"

Keep it up Dave, you're a legend. I hope you know that you're appreciated, because you really are. Long time subscriber. All the best fella!

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

Thanks for your support. It's very much appreciated :-)

@keithalderson100

6 ай бұрын

@@JustHaveaThink Just a couple of thoughts... Even things like the 20MPH speed limits - especially when sleeping-policemen are added - as a step towards zero emissions is seen for what it is; a lie! Bringing down the speed where cars operate either outside their power-band or at higher revolutions per metre travelled will NOT reduce carbon emissions, though they undoubtedly save the lives of those not able to cross roads with traffic flowing at higher speeds. This lying is also true when larger issues about reactive measures to a real nature induced climate change situation is being faced globally... when the historic temperature and CO2 level graphs are looked at, it is seen that the temperature started to rise first, followed by the CO2 level, hence cause then effect is baked-in and overthrows the anthropogenic nature of the REAL threat. If the REAL threat is a cyclical NATURAL climate change, then the human species can then mobilise swiftly, utilising ALL available resources to, as Dave alludes to, dealing with mass migration and the other main factor - not mentioned in this video from Dave, food production. If however time and effort if misdirected to anthropogenic; the man-made contribution to global warming; necessitating net-zero by 2030, by then 9/10ths of the population will have almost certainly been sacrificed to the inevitable starvation and death due to civil unrest caused by this starvation event and unrest due to unmanaged illegal mass migration. So The World Economic Forum and The WHO, epitomised by Dr Fauci's lust for recognition, a legacy and financial gain - related to his pet 'gain of function' research - will be at the controls of a world envisioned by them to have just the 500,000,000 souls left supplying the needs of the elites. You can check to see the bizarre closure of three functioning hydroelectric dams in The USA to return the river valley back to its natural state - so saving the earth - to get a flavour of the madness. EVs might have reduced polution AND left us all still driving had discovery already had nuclear fussion reactors - even fail-safe-design nuclear fission reactors, had we bothered to pursue this option - HOWEVER, what we WILL get are resriction on movement in 15 minute environments monitored and surveilled to produce our own personal social-credit-score; being locked out of the central-bank-digital-currency system as a means of our control. So beware or be aware of governments coming to solve your problems- the ones they gave you or those ficticious ones the censored media narrates to you. If there is no conspiracy, truth can be argued towards in open debate with evidence that bears-up under scrutiny. Dave is one source where integrity seems to reside, though I would say he hasn't quite noticed the inconsistances as yet- check for others. Yours, Keith

Amazingly influential and effectively communicated messages. Thank you!

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

So very grateful for you teams insights!

6:45 Should include climate refugees. Most of Bangladesh, for one example, is going to be underwater. That's 145 million people who need someplace to go.

@ThatOpalGuy

6 ай бұрын

i guess floriduh is out.

@2handsandwiches

6 ай бұрын

I'll buy them all aqualungs.

And we just got a House Speaker who's a climate change denier here in the US.

@DSAK55

6 ай бұрын

not just climate, a Reality denier

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

Yes, but he does want to return to 18th Century living. That may happen, just not the way he envisions.

@autohmae

6 ай бұрын

@@blaydCA I worry his views might be in the first category: "In the United States, 39% of adults say they believe “we are living in the end times,” while 58% say they do not believe we are living in the end times"

@incognitotorpedo42

6 ай бұрын

Our new speaker is a Creationist as well as a Denialist. This is what the Republicans have wrought.

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

@@incognitotorpedo42 House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R Louisiana) home state has a high poverty level, poisoned domestic water supplies, at extreme risk for flooding and hurricanes. He can pass out bibles as a floatation device whilst they swim in their contaminated swamp waters. I'll offer them my "thoughts and prayers" and condolences for their poor choices.

Thank you...appreciate your hard working unbiased views

I know that this is off track. However, I think going down the rabbit hole of Valar Atomics would be a great episode. By the way, everything you do here is bloody terrific!

As to that last report item, I had a response, but they were all swear words. Thank you yet again for everything you do.

that was EXACTLY the right answer to those dull naysayers. Thank you for that. It is not about lateral thinking, really not needed here. you just need some basic scientific education, a short term memory that exceeds 10 seconds, and compassion for the world. ...i know i know, only a handful people would pass.... nevertheless I hate stupidity, and stupid people

Well worth a repeat viewing when recommended from the follow on six months later...

To add to the below, when I worked for an insurance magazine in 1981/3 the insurance Industry was already desperatly worried about the threat and reality of climate change. The writing was already on the wall in flashing red letters even then.

I was a physics major during part of my undergraduate studies, so I am familiar with how scientists think conservatively. In discussion climate change with friends and colleagues, I try to point this out in order to convey how alarmed everyone should really be about what is to come.

Yup, you got it. I've been waiting for this. Everything comes to a halt if insurance companies won't insure. But, these billionaires will find some way around it 🤬

@blaydCA

6 ай бұрын

The billionaires ALREADY have a workaround: casualty loss tax write-off, and government subsidies along with deeply discounted slave labor, since time immemorial.

Thanks Dave. I’m always looking for better ways to articulate climate change risks for my sphere of influence. Great grist for the mill, this one!

I work in the insurance industry and have done in both Australia and New Zealand, I've been responsible for responding to natural disasters in both countries for over fifteen years in claims, from bushfires, floods, hailstorms and cyclones. While these events are part of the normal weather patterns here in the global South, the severity and frequency of these events have been increasing year on year, the insurance industries and insurance council of both countries absolutely are aware there is climate change, as does the big insurers whom provide reinsurance to consumer level insurance companies. Anyone who thinks these reports are alarmist should talk to the people I've talked to who've lost everything including family. I personally been flooded out of what was thought to be a flood proof city during two 1 in 100 year floods that occured in a span of 3 years. I've seen while towns wiped off the map in floods and a city destroyed by a hailstorm, it's only going to get worse. Insurance is about risk, and currently the risk is not good.

A scifi writer once wrote: Nothing will change until the rich have nowhere to run. Then they'll fix it. In the meantimes hundreds of millions will die. But I'm 71. I've decided it's no longer my responsibility to save the world.

@sudd3660

6 ай бұрын

one fact that most people do not know about is that there is no rich people. by that i mean that it is the masses and the people employed(or slave) that give them power or "richness"

@ThatOpalGuy

6 ай бұрын

they cant fix this. we have dithered too long.

@ThatOpalGuy

6 ай бұрын

@@stephjsinclair he doesnt even have to save it, just try to limit the damage you continue to do.

@JZsBFF

6 ай бұрын

That's what the Plebosaurusses thought about the Richosaurusses.

@edp2459

6 ай бұрын

Where are doomed take some vacation enjoy life!

Well done, Dave! 🎉😊

As some bright spark recientely pointed out, climate change will mainly impact agriculture but as agriculture is only 3% of GDP the impact will be unimportant😮.

Your work is tremendously important. Thank you.

Dear David, thank you for your next THINK. It is interesting that it was published at the moment when I finished the next chapter of the WASTELESS WORLD STORY dedicated to PROFUSION AUDIT. I have read some of the papers you mention and unfortunately, I have to say that the publication mentioned The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios is far from the reality mainly because every single one of the authors, never steps out of the academic world. It may be of interest that in the entire document not a single time mentioned terms WASTE, WASTING, or PREVENTION. I am not sure if you are aware of the fact that THE CLUB OF ROME asked in 1967 the scientists and researchers of MIT to investigate the LIMITS OF PLANET. In 1972 result was presented in a publication that seemed like to be used as a manual, and not a warning.

Thank you so much for sharing this update. I have noticed that there are a lot of disparities in the forecasts and arguments around climate change, while all are apparently based on the same datasets. This episode gives me more food for thought and answers some of my doubts.

@TheMrCougarful

6 ай бұрын

There are no disparities, unless you have been asking the energy companies what they think. Overall the message is very clear, though science allows for some uncertainty. If you want something simpler, I am happy to inform you, that you and I are well and truly focked.

@monnoo8221

6 ай бұрын

don't think too long, you may be dead before your brain has finished digesting. EVERYBODY with average intelligence, some kind of scientific basic education has to perform breathwork to calm down the rising feeling of panick when looking to the level of green house gases over time. ANYBODY who does not draw personal consequences regarding her/his behavior, is ... simply outrageous stupid. In the far future, the coming 50 years will be known as the dawn of practical darwinism

@ricos1497

6 ай бұрын

​@@TheMrCougarfulthere are disparities as the video states. The biggest disparity comes in the economics section of the IPCC report and goes some way towards explaining the attitude of twats like Sunak (although not fully, of course). The IPCC report, genuinely, includes a suggestion that we'd only experience a 2%* drop in GDP growth with 5 degrees of warming! In other words, breaching all the tipping points outlined in the report in the video would still see a growing economy, but just not quite as much! As the entire religion of economics is not backed by even basic - children's - physics, the economists, and thus the politicians, haven't the slightest worry about the future. I really hope Dave follows this with an overview of the economics of the IPCC report. It's an eye-opener. It explains everything. The world is run by complete morons in adherence to their idiot religion. *I can't remember if it was 2% or not, but the bottom line was that GDP growth was being projected.

@TheMrCougarful

6 ай бұрын

@@ricos1497 Economics is not climate science. Economics is witchcraft, regarding which 20 Nobel Lauriates in Economics cannot agree on even the most fundamental aspect. Physics is now in the driver's seat, and the global economic system is going to evaporate like a dream, leaving not even ashes behind.

I have heard it said that 2023 was a honest summer on record, and at the same time it's been said that in the future, we might relate it to have been a cool summer .....

Thank you for another brilliant & well based article. The other danger is the loss of biodiversity in animal & plant life. At 81 I've seen 90% of small birds destroyed 80% of large birds 97% of all insects 70 to 85% of all sea life & the same for all land creatures whilst I see pollution visibly destroy the countryside of my childhood years,. I'm sorry I'm not a patron only I do support 7 environmental organisations & my Chinese Partner on a modest pension who no-one else to support her. But I do admire your work.

Yes, the conservative 1.5c threshold was breached long ago. Moving the baseline from 1750 to 1970 is dishonest at best & criminal!

On one hand there are people that are talking about technology to live on the Moon and Mars, and then on the other hand there are people talking about why we won't be able to live on Earth. I think the plans to colonize the Moon or Mars are not well thought out, but maybe the same sort of technolgies could be used to live on Earth. Even if Earth gets much, much worse, it will still be much more hospitable than the Moon or Mars.

@2handsandwiches

6 ай бұрын

Ask Elon musk who spent 44 billion dollars on a social media platform.. all white his hyperloop collapsed around the Snake oil salesmans ears...

@autohmae

6 ай бұрын

People forget how inhospitable Mars is, even in the worst scenarios, climate on Earth will be better than what it is on Mars. And as many have pointed out, if you have the technology to terraform Mars, you can terraform Earth. Note: to terraform Mars takes 100s of years, so it's probably not a great option anyway.

@2handsandwiches

6 ай бұрын

@@autohmae it's going to take them hundreds of years to so called land back on the moon, biggest con in human history.

@sjsomething4936

6 ай бұрын

Part of doing exploration and putting stations on Mars and the moon is that it drives technologies that also may help us save this planet. Simply look at the number of incredibly impactful patents / technologies that NASA has developed, many of which we’re already using _today_ to help reduce our impact on the planet. Putting a colony on Mars is easily 50 years away, and it will continue to drive those innovations that will further help our progress. Also, given that with our best existing technology it will require 3 years to do a round trip to Mars and back, to setup a colony would require thousands of such missions costing tens of billions of dollars. But it’s not an either / or proposition… to solve the big climate problems here on earth humans simply need to consume less and conserve more. Really really simple things like having one less serving of food a week, having one less child, driving less, choosing a car that’s better on gas and having your house one or two degrees hotter or cooler. Collectively these actions can really add up.

@sjsomething4936

6 ай бұрын

@@autohmae terraforming Mars to make it anywhere near habitable would most likely require thousands of years and the concerted effort of the majority of the nations of earth, as well as developing technologies that today are only a concept in a few people’s imaginations. However, you’re 100% dead on that we need to realize that earth is still *very* capable of being saved and that doing so is our best chance of survival.

Thanks again for your level headed and thoughtful explanation.

My friends father worked for a defense think tank in for decades. In 1999 he moved to Northern California from LA because he retired and they had modeled climate change impacts for the US military and knew where to retire because of it.

@johndododoe1411

6 ай бұрын

Unfortunately that model didn't include the resulting forest fires in Northern California .

It's complicated, I work selling properties on the coast and I find myself faced with very complicated issues. Do I warn my client that the region where he is buying a property could suffer in the future and be underwater? If I were to warn all customers no one sells anymore, I wonder how many real estate agencies are in the same situation.

@andrewtrip8617

6 ай бұрын

Sea level rise threatens very few coastal properties.so far the predictions have not come true .You should treat your clients as adults .

@carlstephens1532

6 ай бұрын

It's not really your job to inform buyers of possible issues, unless it's a today problem, basically it's your job to help that person buy the property that they have selected,

Thank you for another clear analysis.

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

Glad you liked it :-)

Its great to see this getting aired to more of the folk that have influence with decision makers and legislators. We are rapidly running out of time and for many in the globe south, they will tell you we already have. I like the way you calmly present the views of those that can sometimes be found in the comment section, who have decided the journalist (with zero qualifications on the subject they are presenting) from the Daily Fail/Sun etc, knows more about the subject that the majority of specialist scientists. One important challenge we could really do with tackling right now, is removing the majority of the mainstream media from the hands of the handful of tax haven based billionaires that currently, decide what is published and what alternative facts are going to be aired this week. If we had publications and tv channels that didn't have agendas that are dictated by their owners self interests, we would already be a long way to a liveable future and with a lot less death, destruction and cost! For what its worth, I have studied the climate with Exeter University, and I can highly recommend it. Even if you don't need this for your job, its a fascinating and valuable experience.

@atomictraveller

5 ай бұрын

i just feel like, actually talking about about west papuan genocide for u.s. gold mining, would do more than, watching these videos huh. 63 years is enough? 1.8 million? pull you fingie out huh?

Brilliant presentation as always and now you have woken up the insurance actuaries we can look forward to significant increases in insurance premiums to add to our growing collection of woes!!!

A very logical and obvious set of conclusions once exposed. I've followed you from very early on and in spite of all the superb effort you make to try and educate people, and thus their leaders, I see very little change in actions or people's attitudes. I've been on the case, like you for at least 14 years and I still try to open people's eyes, but no change. Sorry but I think we're just incapable of understanding the size of the challenge when really we should all be at a level of action comensurate with your level of understanding. We are nowhere near that and business as usual is just too comfortable for folks who just hate change. Recent example, look at the hoo haa with a very tiny step of reducing the speed of traffic to 20mph within selected urban areas in Wales. Meanwhile humanity is embroiled in several massive armed conflicts across the world. Working together? What a load of old socs. When we need to use globalisation to work for us we seem to be putting our barriers up in the hopeless idea that we can isolate ourselves from any of the impacts of climate change. We are toast imo.

@Reasons-to-be-Vegan

6 ай бұрын

It is very frustrating. I've been on the case for over 30 years. There is something about the human psychic that leads to short term concern and almost fully discounts longer term risks. There's perceptive filtering and a natural steer towards optimism. We need psychologists working on solutions to address challenge of communication and recognition leading to understanding and acceptance of the reality and to bring about a sense of urgency.

@jonathanh222

6 ай бұрын

​@@Reasons-to-be-Vegan I've come to believe most people are too overwhelmed by modern life to have the energy to try to understand these issues when just getting by with a modicum of happiness intact is hard enough as it is. So more than psychologists working on it as you suggest, I think we need to ease people's burdens. Why are we still working 5 day weeks and 8 hour days in 2023? Findings suggest we would be even more productive if we cut that back by 25%... But modern society isn't really too keen on changing. Work harder! Work more! Generate value! Produce! We are cogs in this hellscape of a machine and it's killing us in more ways than can be counted.

@keithalderson100

6 ай бұрын

I think the main problem is that 20MPH speed limits, as a step towards zero emissions is seen for what it is; a lie! Bringing down the speed where cars operate either outside their power-band or at higher revolutions per metre travelled will NOT reduce carbon emissions. This lying is also true when larger issues about reactive measures to a real climate change situation is being faced globally... when the historic temperature and CO2 level graphs are looked at, it is seen that the temperature started to rise first, followed by the CO2 level, hence cause then effect is baked-in and overthrows the anthropogenic nature of the REAL threat. If the REAL threat is a cyclical NATURAL climate change, then the human species can then mobilise swiftly, utilising ALL available resources to, as Dave alludes to, dealing with mass migration and the other main factor - not mentioned in this video from Dave, food production. If however time amd effort if misdirected to anthropogenic; the man-made contribution to global warmimg; necessitating net-zero by 2030, by then 9/10ths of the population will have almost certainly been sacrificed to the inevitable starvation and death due to civil unrest caused by this starvation event and unrest due to unmanaged illegal mass migration. So The World Economic Forum and The WHO, epitomised by Dr Fauci's lust for recognition, a legacy and financial gain - related to his pet 'gain of function' research - will be at the controls of a world envisioned by them to have just the 500,000,000 souls left supplying the needs of the elites. You can check to see the bizarre closure of three functioning hydroelectric dams in The USA to return the river valley back to its natural state - so saving the earth - to get a flavour of the madness. EVs might have reduced polution AND left us all still driving had discovery already had nuclear fussion reactors - even fail-safe-design nuclear fission reactors, had we bothered to pursue this option - HOWEVER, what we WILL get are resriction on movement in 15 minute environments monitored and surveilled to produce our own personal social-credit-score; being locked out of the central-bank-digital-currency system as a means of our control. So beware or be aware of governments coming to solve your problems- the ones they gave you or those ficticious ones the censored media narrates to you. If there is no conspiracy, truth can be argued towards in open debate with evidence that bears-up under scrutiny. Dave is one source where integrity seems to reside, though I would say he hasn't quite noticed the inconsistances as yet- check for others. Yours, Keith

@TheLRider

6 ай бұрын

@@keithalderson100 no it wasn't it was there to make it safer for people who live in those areas. Quite an honourable set of values imo. A small benefit will be to reduce emissions yes, but you need to go and read up about queuing theory to understand that. Enjoy..

@keithalderson100

6 ай бұрын

@@TheLRider Interesting. It will take a few years for the statistics to come in. I personally know of two serious collisions involving pedestrians days or weeks after urban Road speeds were dropped by 10 MPH... not to 20MPH which is very safe for pedestrians where those limits are applied. My experience in society was also around education of children as regards personal safety. Here in Coventry I think the sleeping-policemen road humps negate any benefit from queueing theory benefits; though our traffic lights are, as far as I know, one of the best computerised controlled for steady flow of traffic.

Regardless of the degree of obviousness of a given condition to at least one individual does not necessitate that anyone else will comprehend it at all. To that end I've adapted an old parable as follows, "You can lead the horse to water, but you cannot make it think!" I think our hope as a species is to achieve technological singularity before it's too late and make our transition to cyborgs. Not likely...🤖

@glasszeraki9195

6 ай бұрын

Or we can create a “neon god” to save us (AGI).

the actuary view is very important, thanks for your work

Never stop what you are doing!

Thanks for stitching in the absolute boffin, Sunak, into your part about urgency. Hilarious.

@sjsomething4936

6 ай бұрын

Yup, the billionaire and multimillionaire class that Sunak belong to likes to believe climate change won’t affect them, which is beyond ridiculous. Sure they have a lot of money, but if money ends up having near zero value as society comes apart at the seams, you’d better have a great remote island with nice protected greenhouses to grow food and live on. Staying on any large land mass is potentially very precarious, especially if you’re known to be one of the architects of the downfall of said societies. Absolute anarchy and chaos is one of the situations where what previously counted as wealth becomes irrelevant. Maybe that’s too doom and gloom, but if earth actually gets to 5 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures, it’s a distinct possibility.

@JustHaveaThink

6 ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

@trueriver1950

6 ай бұрын

Hilarious yes: but in a very bittersweet way. Sadly his supposed "opposition" leader, -Sucker- Sir Keir is just as disingenuously naïve about oil, coal, and so on

@Sekir80

6 ай бұрын

@@trueriver1950I'm far away of UK politics, so thanks for the heads up! Hilarious? Yea, I should have added a /s after my sarcasm.