The Keynesian Beauty Contest

The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game that is used to illustrate how people operate on different levels of reasoning. It was first used by John Maynard Keynes to show how behavior shapes financial markets, but it applies to a broad range of scenarios in our daily lives.
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Пікірлер: 66

  • @watertruck9893
    @watertruck98933 жыл бұрын

    Anyone from Alice in borderland? Been simping for chishiya ever since the 6 of diamonds game. Especially with how he single handedly defeated jack of diamonds and king of diamonds himself

  • @tina7742

    @tina7742

    3 жыл бұрын

    he is soooo mf fine in the live action (and manga).. my absolute fav character

  • @DeepakJaiswal-qe1df

    @DeepakJaiswal-qe1df

    3 жыл бұрын

    Omgg ikrr

  • @lukainthebuilding4719

    @lukainthebuilding4719

    3 жыл бұрын

    Exposed

  • @YourMom-bl5vo

    @YourMom-bl5vo

    2 жыл бұрын

    I agree with this statement

  • @NeostormXLMAX
    @NeostormXLMAX3 жыл бұрын

    came here after reading alice in the borderlands. i see this logic being used so much in anime and manga where two intellegent characters keep second guessing themselfs thinking if the other has predicted that they predicted the others moves.

  • @athirstysapphic7775

    @athirstysapphic7775

    3 жыл бұрын

    dude same

  • @ankylee7398

    @ankylee7398

    3 жыл бұрын

    Me rn

  • @madhuraedavayyanamath715

    @madhuraedavayyanamath715

    2 жыл бұрын

    BRUH SAME!!

  • @NeostormXLMAX

    @NeostormXLMAX

    Жыл бұрын

    damn I guess alice in borderlands wasn't as obscure as I thought back then. I guess the netflix adaptation got it more popular

  • @caitlinaa

    @caitlinaa

    Жыл бұрын

    same but after watching the show. i don’t really get the beauty contest game so I came here to search it up

  • @Cris-nf2pt
    @Cris-nf2pt3 жыл бұрын

    King of diamonds' game was really interesting

  • @AnythingMooNs
    @AnythingMooNs4 жыл бұрын

    This channel needs 1000x the amount of subs it currently has

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    4 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the kind word-I appreciate it. Thanks for watching!

  • @Peacenutman
    @Peacenutman3 жыл бұрын

    This is for future Netflix show Alice in Borderlands season 2 or season 3 finale.

  • @leeyan8452

    @leeyan8452

    3 жыл бұрын

    that's why i'm here xD

  • @jcu-lan

    @jcu-lan

    3 жыл бұрын

    hehehehehehe just hehehehehe

  • @jcu-lan

    @jcu-lan

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@leeyan8452 same here hehehehehe

  • @swz370

    @swz370

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@leeyan8452 same 😂

  • @lukainthebuilding4719

    @lukainthebuilding4719

    3 жыл бұрын

    Me, thinking I was the only one coming here for this:👁️👄👁️

  • @jjsorites
    @jjsorites2 жыл бұрын

    The way you laid out the beauty contest got me thinking about that scene from the Princess Bride.... and then you cut to that clip from the Princess Bride! I was floored. Well done.

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    2 жыл бұрын

    Glad you enjoyed!

  • @caitlinkenney7622
    @caitlinkenney76222 жыл бұрын

    I’ve been studying behavioral economic theory and Richard Thaler. Thank you so much for this video! It really helped me understand what I’ve been reading. I’d love to see more content on behavioral finance and decision- making!

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    2 жыл бұрын

    Glad you found it helpful-thanks for watching!

  • @NarutoUzumakiofficial
    @NarutoUzumakiofficial Жыл бұрын

    Played this game in a courtroom before :( it was very scary.

  • @iMan70
    @iMan702 жыл бұрын

    I agree with everyone here, that this a SUPER well made video. Great job, ID. However, something that doesn't seem to be discussed is what I would call "the statistical solution" from someone who could be described as the Bayesian thinker. This would be the person who takes the time to consider how many people are in each stage of thinking then uses Bayesian statistics to determine the most appropriate number. This approach takes into consideration that the average skill of the guessers will be static in almost any given game, so with a distribution of where you think each person will guess you can multiply the probability of each guess to the probability mass function of the distribution to get an expected value. It appears highly modal guesses occur at 0/1, 22, and 33. With this in mind, a mild heuristic could be deduced that third level to "∞-1 level" thinkers essentially don't exist, and that infinite level thinkers represent ~10%, second level thinkers represent ~8%, first level thinkers represent ~6% and the remaining 76% are zero level thinkers. There's also a downward trend from 2 to 85 with the bulk of zero level thinking guesses below 50, but I don't know that based on this data alone a good heuristic could be developed to capture that phenomenon. At the very least, by multiplying (0+1)/2 * 0.10 + 22 * 0.08 + 33 * 0.06 + 25 * .76 (The median between 0 and 50) = 15.2 It's not a perfect guess, but it's quite a bit better than any of the other highly modal guesses in the set and not particularly complex.

  • @manuellessi98
    @manuellessi982 жыл бұрын

    Wow! Thanks it was super clear and well explained. The animations and the graphics are next level also.

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the kind words, Manny! Glad you enjoyed!

  • @rafindhraprihastama478
    @rafindhraprihastama4783 жыл бұрын

    Amazing content, amazing visual. Good luck for the future!

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the kind words, Rafindhra! Glad you enjoyed it.

  • @jon8963
    @jon89639 ай бұрын

    Great explanation!

  • @name-ok2cp
    @name-ok2cp Жыл бұрын

    great explanation!

  • @khyatichouksey8927
    @khyatichouksey89273 жыл бұрын

    This video is so well made, oh my god

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks, Khyati-glad you enjoyed it!

  • @sureshkumar-ej7om
    @sureshkumar-ej7om3 жыл бұрын

    who ever created the video done an great job .....i am here for understanding the concept for my academic it was super ........really thanks to the creater

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad you enjoyed the video, Suresh! Thank you for the kind words. Stay tuned for more!

  • @rraawk00
    @rraawk004 жыл бұрын

    Only 370 views??? No wonder people don’t think enough.... they’re missing out on the best content!! Thank you!

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    4 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for watching-Happy thinking! Stay tuned for more!

  • @anthonymarcangelo1132
    @anthonymarcangelo11323 жыл бұрын

    Hahah. That Princess Bride scene was the first thing that popped in my mind

  • @CounterpartJack
    @CounterpartJack7 ай бұрын

    I've been using Nagel's Beauty Contest for nearly a year as models of online social sharing, and I'm recommending that video to anybody who's asking me about the theory. Online social sharing is closer to the original version though (with multiple Nash Equilbria) and I wish your video had spent some time on that. Nevertheless, it's a great primer, and I hope I'll contribute to get it more views :D

  • @prula
    @prula3 жыл бұрын

    I love KZread! Thank you! Great Video!

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for watching-glad you enjoyed, Dominik!

  • @asseenonreddit5
    @asseenonreddit53 жыл бұрын

    Brilliant Video!! Well done

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the kind words, Ryan! Glad you enjoyed

  • @ArtTalks
    @ArtTalks2 жыл бұрын

    Brilliant explanation. Never get tired of seing again. Congratulations. I'll contact you via your website

  • @gergpoo
    @gergpoo2 жыл бұрын

    Awesome video

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for watching!

  • @christodang
    @christodang3 жыл бұрын

    I feel the recent events with the stock market (namely GameStop) only further reinforces the Keynesian beauty contest game theory for the stock market. Back in the days, the joke was "the stock market reflects rich people's feelings", but what GameStop has shown us is that retail investors can be a force to affect markets so the saying is moving towards "the stock market reflects people's feelings".

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    3 жыл бұрын

    I agree with you, Christopher-the recent GameStop situation further reinforces the prevalence of KBC logic. Animal spirits prevail, indeed. Thanks for watching and sharing your thoughts!

  • @deanwcphillips
    @deanwcphillips4 жыл бұрын

    Once again, awesome content man! I'm curious, are you using After effects for the entire video? These videos must take hours upon hours

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    4 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for continuing to watch, Dean-I'm glad you enjoyed it! Yep, this one was all done in After Effects. All of the animation for my videos is in AE and I use Premiere for parts of videos that use footage shot in camera. These videos certainly do take up a good portion of time, which is why I don't release a ton of videos. I want to make sure that they are hitting a certain mark for quality and that means lots of hours spent scripting and animating in AE.

  • @alberteinstein9357
    @alberteinstein93572 жыл бұрын

    Really well made 🙂

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks, Varun! Glad you enjoyed it.

  • @ps9062
    @ps90623 жыл бұрын

    Awesome explanation sir

  • @intermittentdiversion

    @intermittentdiversion

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for watching, Yui!

  • @vd8614
    @vd8614 Жыл бұрын

    Chishiya

  • @tuapuiwong5903
    @tuapuiwong5903 Жыл бұрын

    I come here after the 0.8 game in Alice in Borderland.

  • @ebolapie
    @ebolapie8 ай бұрын

    5:32 well, I certainly did lose.

  • @artpak2761
    @artpak276111 ай бұрын

    Friends they know we know they know that we know …

  • @woodys9841
    @woodys9841 Жыл бұрын

    Okay so i am a bit late, but i kinda disagree with the presentation of the 2/3 out of 100 game. Since the number will always be multiplied with 2/3, you can never get a number above 67. Therefore the average rational guess will be the median of 0 and 67, thus being 33. So 22 is the first level guess.

  • @RiderGeats
    @RiderGeats3 жыл бұрын

    N A S H E Q U I L I B R I U M

  • @zs0520
    @zs05203 жыл бұрын

    Hi, Nijiro 👩🏻‍🦳

  • @hazlanmuhammadqodri8469
    @hazlanmuhammadqodri8469 Жыл бұрын

    here before 2nd Season of Alice in Borderland that will be released on 22nd December, 2022. [Spoiler Tag] Chishiya won the game of searching the worth of life against K Diamonds Kuzuryuu that decided he won't decide (mind blowing booom)

  • @Wenzel368
    @Wenzel3682 жыл бұрын

    All this tells me is that if smart people assume other people are smart they get surprised that many people are stupid.

  • @gerardreneocop6865
    @gerardreneocop68653 жыл бұрын

    This is some VOX quality vid lol

  • @mtlicq
    @mtlicq2 жыл бұрын

    This is how Canadians decide to vote in federal elections in Canada 🍁