*Whoa! Scream Fortress 2019 is out!* If you want to know what to unbox from the new event, check out this quick guide I wrote! It uses findings from this video, as well as what we know about this year's update to make predictions about the best crates to unbox if you want to pull something awesome from this year's Halloween event. Link to guide: docs.google.com/document/d/1-xwAnzZNj9yEvtYoU6kpUyxqahpxSrBi7uoobaT4GQI/edit?usp=sharing *Original Pinned Comment:* On some level, I can’t believe this video is finally on KZread. Believe it or not, this video has been in the works (on and off) for almost six months, and due to the stupid amount of work I had to put in to not only record this video, but program the unboxing simulator itself, there have been many times where I was close to giving up and scraping the video all together. That being said, against all odds, this video has ended up on KZread. And as a result, I really hope you guys enjoy this video. This video has some incredibly fascinating results that I’ve been dying to share with you guys, and I hope you guys appreciate the awesomeness of these findings as much as I do. Because there is a lot about the simulator I didn’t have time to talk about in the video (e.g. behind the scenes stuff), I've complied a FAQ document that answers some of the most common questions I've received on this video, as well as gets into a full breakdown of how I simulated each crate type of crate. The document has some length to it, but there is a ton of very interesting information in here, so trust me when I say it will be worth your time to read! Here is the link to the FAQ (be careful for spoilers if you haven't watched the full video yet!): docs.google.com/document/d/1ZcT5TOYkxU8rzYpzjkhmz3nv8xrWYR5jCyzWx4uAHDk/edit?usp=sharing Finally, before I go, I want to give a quick thanks to those who helped me with the video: *Backpack.tf* - For having a great API I could use to collect the prices of almost every item in TF2. *The TF2 Wiki* - For providing me with data on crates, unboxable items, and some unbox percentages. I referenced this site more times than any other while creating this video, and the help it gave me was invaluable. Without it, I'm not sure this video could exist. *Python Library Authors* - Analyzing data in Python is an absolute joy, and I can’t think of another language I would rather use thanks to these amazing tools. *Archimo* - For walking me through some of the complexities of unboxing from the perspective of a seasoned unboxer. Most of my numbers from bonus drops would be completely inaccurate without his help. *ZEG* - For once again providing me with a great thumbnail, as well as a sweet animation as well. *Stevia Sphere & Punch Deck* - For creating some great music and putting it under a Creative Commons licence. *Anyone I know in real life* - For putting up with my desire to continuously torture myself while working on this video. Thanks for watching!

@remipoujoulat7759

4 жыл бұрын

You always stood out from the other by your work and dedication. Thank you but don't forget yourself buddy.

@An_Ian

4 жыл бұрын

So I looked at create 83 on steam market at it seems your video tripled its price in a week. nice work man you just made valve more money from creates that you did talking bout them

@CaptainClark23

4 жыл бұрын

Incredibly in-depth video. Just some constructive feedback: your upward inflections mid-sentence are almost always the exact same tone. It can be a little fatiguing for an audience to hear it repeated so frequently. That’s seriously the only thing I could find that could be improved. Again, well done and bravo on a tremendous effort. 👏👏👏

@somerandomguyintheinternet

4 жыл бұрын

Drink scrumpy to get better bottle to drink even more scrumpy but better

@NahaleGuitar

3 жыл бұрын

The way you anounCE every OTHER word is fucKING anNOYING... I'm just teLLING YOU. That's how I feEL abOUT your viDEO... please stop doING THIS.

Little did he know he just made the prices of multiple crates sky rocket

@MrGabsoliver

4 жыл бұрын

MANNN, I just had 300 #83 for sale on marketplace.tf and they are gone LOL.

@KB-ud5ct

4 жыл бұрын

@@MrGabsoliver can we get an f for this poor soul

@Gemikoni

4 жыл бұрын

F

@Bobby-zk4np

4 жыл бұрын

F

@sharcc2511

4 жыл бұрын

F

Hey Vsauce, Ben here. Crates aren't profitable. Or... are they? *Vsauce music starts playing*

@seb5708

4 жыл бұрын

Ok

@RF-Ataraxia

4 жыл бұрын

@@seb5708 ok

@xexcellx1821

4 жыл бұрын

@@RF-Ataraxia ok

@duskyduck5949

4 жыл бұрын

@@xexcellx1821 ok

@cl4655

3 жыл бұрын

the music is Moon Men by Jake Chudnow by the way

Make this a public tool man. This shit's gonna shift sooner rather than later, and we gotta keep up.

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Yeah, long term that is the goal. It would take some work to set up website and whatnot but I think it would be highly worth the effort. Because your right, prices change.

@lolnyanterts

4 жыл бұрын

Can you make it open source?

@97mizuno

4 жыл бұрын

@@lolnyanterts This. As someone who is studying data science, it would be quite useful.

@realdragon

2 жыл бұрын

There's simpler solution really: Probobality of getting item times the value of crate gives the expected value of crate For example one cosmetic cost 100$ but have 2% to drop in crate, for simplicity we will say you either get it or not so on average you get 2$ per crate (2 drops in 100 crates). If key to crate cost more than 2$ then it's not worth gambling because on average you will lose money, but if key is worth less than 2$ then it's worth gambling because on average you will earn more. No need for any simulations and for multiple items you just add those to get average worth of crate i.e. 100x0.02 + 50x0.1 + 10x0.3 + 1x0.58 = 10.58 For items worth 100$ with 2% drop rate, 50$ and 10% drop rate, 10$ and 30% drop and 1$ and 58% drop on average you will earn 10.58$ per crate so if key cost 9$ then it's worth it

@realpatty

11 ай бұрын

@@realdragon i was thinking the same, it's cool but none of this was necessary lol

Now do that with Mvm stats

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

That's a great idea, but it's a project for another day :P

@WaterBisquitte

Жыл бұрын

@@TheVirtualEconomist 3 years later…

Viewer: So is crate unboxing worth it? TVE: Well yes but actually no.

@MrZylix-6

3 жыл бұрын

Sora Okamichi to summarise: depends on the crate...

Stop pocketing the soldier Jesus Christ I can hear your teammates smashing the e key

@TheeCapN

4 жыл бұрын

Most of those people were behind cover or retreating. If that soldier died the enemy team would have no force to stop them from pushing forward making the possibility of the entire team dying higher

@sweetmamaschili4051

4 жыл бұрын

@@TheeCapN If they were getting healed they wouldn't need to hide ;3

@TheeCapN

4 жыл бұрын

@@sweetmamaschili4051 ur dumb dude. Had the medic stopped healing the soldier then who ever they were fighting would kill the soldier then the medic and then those fleeing. How do you not get that. Even if the medic would turn and heal the immediate person behind them by the time the guy behind realises he is getting healed, turns around, aims and hits the soldier would've already died. Then the medic dies because he was already taking damage. Sure let's say the new guy getting healed takes out the enemy nowbyiu have a dead soldier and medic he would have to fall back for his teammates to respawn anyways. Ur dumb

@cache780

4 жыл бұрын

his gameplay makes me physically sick

@epicebic6188

4 жыл бұрын

squidman6000 no he would have been fine also in some of the clips they were walking out of the spawn he didn’t drop the one soldier he could have healed his some one else to get their health up but no he stayed giving the soldier fucking heavy anal

This is one of the most historically significant videos to ever be produced in the Team Fortress economy. You effectively proved that gambling can be profitable, through pure number crunching and excruciating pain. I applaud you, TVE, for making one of the most informative videos in this game’s history.

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Reading this made my day. I'm so happy you enjoyed the video so much! This was my goal from the beginning :)

@saint3058

4 жыл бұрын

Seriously, this is on an absurd level of detail. You should be extremely proud, and I’m very surprised bigger creators haven’t shouted this out. This program, if proved accurate, has just broken the TF2 economy. I love it.

@trystanreadman1764

Жыл бұрын

some guy actually figured out that in certain lotteries the average return on a ticket was higher than the tickets cost during rundown events. and made a living off it.

>be me, aged 12 >ask mom for 5 steam bucks because its my birthday and im a special little birthday boy >on a whim, buy 2 keys and unbox 2 crates >mfw i get 2 unusuals

HE’S BACK

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

yep!

I see someone's been watching The Professor... 😉

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

yeee lol

@Shaltevencraft

4 жыл бұрын

@@TheVirtualEconomist Ever thought about branching out into MtG content?

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

@@Shaltevencraft Yes, but it would need to be on another channel, which makes me much less likely to do it.

@juice1111

4 жыл бұрын

It was uncanny to hear him say that

This was my first video idea back in like, 2016 Glad to see someone do it better!

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

:)

@TwistedFireX

4 жыл бұрын

I actually looked at the most profitable crates myself and discovered 83 and 103. Sadly I had deleted all my munition crates a long time ago. :(

fun fact: techincally in the tf2 universe you can unbox infinitely because its a key and a key doesen't break when you open something

As a stat major who grew up with TF2, this is an amazing video! Keep at it!

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Glad you enjoyed dude!

These kinds of videos are what I wish I could always see in my first search result. But everyone else keeps pumping out clickbait 10:01 videos that restate what i already know but with 5 midroll ads

20:07 to skip to the conclusion

@unkemptwalrus4643

4 жыл бұрын

mrlm1105 not all heroes wear capes

@user-de9kf1rz2w

4 жыл бұрын

Unkempt Walrus what if he/she does wear a cap

@jad6386

4 жыл бұрын

jesus thanks

@allconsumingchicken9173

4 жыл бұрын

L 76 oh my gosh!

@achannel3295

4 жыл бұрын

mrlm1105 but the full video has more overall info like which crates are the best

From my personal experience it's much like any kind of gambling it will never be worth it in the long run even if you get a lucky streak early, also nice to see that you finally got it done :D Edit after watching: I might consider unboxing some of the top crates now, but than again I do like war paint cases as you can in theory pull a profitable strange fn war paint even if unlikely it still feels like an extra shot at an unusual in value sometimes.

the reason I say the TF2 crate depression shows how vulnerable the TF2 economy is because just imagine if it had been all the crates that were bugged instead of a small margin that would have crippled the TF2 economy.

@adamhelgeson9329

4 жыл бұрын

The economy has been on its deathbed for a long. Long. Long time. Pretending otherwise is delusional

@TwistedFireX

4 жыл бұрын

@@adamhelgeson9329 Care to explain?

@mirabile1221

3 жыл бұрын

@@adamhelgeson9329 Care to explain?

@q.of.the.pon.

2 жыл бұрын

@@adamhelgeson9329 Care to explain?

@PotatoSlices

2 жыл бұрын

@@adamhelgeson9329 Care to explain?

Amazing video I love the way you integrate truthful interesting statistics without making it confusing :)

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

glad you enjoyed! I love seeing comments like these :)

I had a friend who bought 5 crates and keys, and unboxed 3 unusuals and then never played the game.

@KB-ud5ct

4 жыл бұрын

Does he still have a pc? Mobile number of his? *lenny*

@jacehackworth6413

4 жыл бұрын

Károly Boross pretty sure he sold them to buy some games during a sale that he played for 15 minutes at most.

@KB-ud5ct

4 жыл бұрын

@@jacehackworth6413 Dummy Well thats embarassing A future of trading and cash lost... But i cant not respect him playing other games.

@jacehackworth6413

4 жыл бұрын

Károly Boross If only I were so lucky.

@jacehackworth6413

4 жыл бұрын

Hatris I swear it’s true.

*TVE* : Is Unboxing Worth It? *The Crate Depression* : _Are you challenging me?_

@No-mh6hg

4 жыл бұрын

epicface now you get an unusual in every crate fifty crates fifty unusuals

Personally, I like unboxing 92 and 90. You have the same odds of getting a strange kritz/awper hand that you do with getting an unusual. Both are highly valuable items.

Didn't expect those months of question asking to result in an all out unboxing code base, but it is highly commended that you put this much work into trying to putting direct numbers behind everything. Good work.

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

:)

Thank you Ben from TheVirtualEconomist I just used all my keys and got around 7 keys profit, cheers

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Nice! What crate did you unbox?

@akulette

4 жыл бұрын

Opened 7 #103 crates and got 5 Strange Parts

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

@@akulette congrats!

@jeffreychen5130

4 жыл бұрын

@@akulette ok this is literally like my friend get an aussie first tour and unusual on an unbox on a crate he brought to bring his cart value to the marketplace minimum

@aide9621

4 жыл бұрын

@@akulette Thanks for telling me, unboxed 5 and made 5 keys profit!

spent 2 keys on crates, got crap form a summer 2019 and got an 8 key strange awp from crate number 90

This was an AMAZING video! It deserves alot more views. Because of how much work you put into it.

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Thanks man :)

I can unhear his word KEY That pitch jesus 😂😂

why does the pitch of your voice go up and down every 5 words ahh

@5amg1

4 жыл бұрын

because it adds to the video by making him sound interesting. if this was done in a monotone voice, i dont think i would have gotten through this video, especially seeing as i dont even play tf2.

@xXRobloxguy

4 жыл бұрын

yeah but i feel like it’s forced upon and it gets annoying when you notice it, and very predictable

@5amg1

4 жыл бұрын

@@xXRobloxguy i mean i didnt notice it until you wrote the comment, and didnt really care all that much when i read it.

@solardile7143

4 жыл бұрын

b o n e s OH LORD IM NOT THE ONLY ONE

@smithhound5452

4 жыл бұрын

I know. I tried to ignore it, but it's like he's trying to emphasize every third word like it's really important. I understand that it's to put a little bounce to what he's saying, and It's typically a good idea, but like, when used with discretion. Lol

personal pet peeve when peoples voices trail up at the end of a sentence i dunno maybe its just me

@solardile7143

4 жыл бұрын

xsonz2 HAHAHAHAHA I had the exact same response like 2 minutes in. I recognized that every 5 seconds he was ending his sentences at the exact same tone and it actually tugged on my balls so hard

this medic gameplay is giving me a headache

Now I gotta EV train my crates in order to get that optimized unusual unboxing build.

the way you started the video, I just feel the MTG energy inside you!

And with this video, the little profet those crates generated will disappear

Damn, this is a great video! Good job man!

Being a business student and a videogame fan, this has to be one of my favourite channels

shout out to that medic at 1:30 called "Nipple Nigga 9000" lmfao

So what I'm hearing is, I really should have been opening 83s during the crate depression as they were all tradable results (except for Unusuals) and they were all very quality items.

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

yeah, that would have actually been the next level thing to do :P

@BottomOfTheDumpsterFire

4 жыл бұрын

@@TheVirtualEconomist I mean I did make over $1000 buying and then reselling crates so I'm not upset but

@coolranch2981

4 жыл бұрын

@@BottomOfTheDumpsterFire my god

Welp now the prices are gonna go up

@antirbx

4 жыл бұрын

9Rr0r the heyzeus of tf2

@RemRise

4 жыл бұрын

Why do you care you dirty Roblox kid

@9rr0r31

4 жыл бұрын

@@RemRise I dont know it's not like I play the game or anything Mr.NoAvtar like nooooo that's impossible like why would I watch a tf2 video and not play the game you ass

@makitard

4 жыл бұрын

@@9rr0r31 damn toxic

@9rr0r31

4 жыл бұрын

@@makitard what is toxic

Good video and u helped me a lot white this question and do more medic gameplay in background

I have stockpiled 27 Crate #57 because they had the Mann Co. Painting Set and its good to see that crate fairs at least decently

This video is Stellar quality!

Jesus, this video is so well made

After watching this video I went to go unbox three #83 Crates, as well as seven #84 crates hoping to get a professional killstreak kit, but instead I somehow managed to get my first Unusual Hat!! I somehow beat the odds and I'm pretty happy with my unusual, it's an Aces High Whirly Warrior! It fits perfect with my High Roller's Rocket Launcher I got last year, and I managed to find two other cosmetics that fit great with it too, The Soldier's Stash and The Cuban Bristle Crisis. This set really make Soldier look like a grizzled veteran who's been around for a long time and likes to fight even when the odds are stacked against him. I personally also love gambling and Poker, hence the High Roller's Rocket Launcher, so this Unusual is great for me!

2022 has arrived crate 83 costs 1 key to buy lol

In my opinion, I feel some tf2 background music could have filled some of the space where you were not talking Just a critique, you don't have to take it.

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

That is a great observation. In all honesty, I would use background music more if I could find some good non-copyrighted/creative commons music to use. If you could point me in the right direction for music like that I would be more than grateful :)

@TheNagler

4 жыл бұрын

@@TheVirtualEconomistOne method has I've been using to avoid copyright strikes is to look at the descriptions of the videos. If you go into the description of any youtube video (preferably the video with just the song) and it is copyright striked, then at the bottom of the description box you will see *Music in this video* in bold. That means it IS copystriked. plus you can also see who claimed it. I havent tested this method, but looking at my previous videos that have gotten copystriked, It appears to me that might be the case. I found that video game soundtracks are least likely to get striked. Super Mario 64, Minecraft, Jak and Daxter, Mortal Komat, and Mass Effect 2 are just some of the games I've researched. Plus If you use other games soundtracks, you could get the added bonus of having some of your viewers say "oh wow, I know that song!" (At least thats what I say when I watch someone elses content and see it.) And I would still give credit, you could write something like this down in your description. Koji Kondo - Super Mario 64 (Dire, Dire Rocks) I hope this helps and I would love to hear your methods on how you obtain music. Thx for the reply. :-)

@TheNagler

4 жыл бұрын

Oh and also here a playlist full of popular video game music: kzread.info/dash/bejne/iIinppR_mtCyo9o.html

@takia5683

4 жыл бұрын

Props to you for not only giving genuine criticism, but also providing a well thought out solution

@TheNagler

4 жыл бұрын

@@takia5683 thank you, it only takes a little more effort to have good impacts

Your voice goes up instead of down when I expect it to and it made me go a little insane lol

I still think of the Hoover logo when I glance at your channel icon

So do you expect this video to cause a feeding frenzy on the profitable cases and crates?

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Maybe. I don't think the crates will skyrocket in price or anything, due to some of the top crates having a crap ton of supply on the SCM. However, some of the killstreak kits and strange parts will probably go down a little bit due to increased competition on the classifieds.

You have 1% chance to get an unusual so it's surely a better idea than mvm for australiums

One of the surprising things about the gargoyle case is that there is no unusual at the pink or red grade...

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

very true. The gargoyle case is an interesting case for sure.

Should be way more likes... the amount of time and effort is under appreciated.

I’ve unboxed 3 crates, 2 of them were profit (one strangepart of 4 keys and a pyro elite grade misc of ~2-3 keys) and the third was a shitty halloween misc of 5 ref and i’ve never unboxed since then

Many thanks. Now everyone are going to unbox these crates

@villus9384

4 жыл бұрын

Then there’s too many of the hats from those crates, they drop in price, and the crates are made to be way less profitable. I love TF2

Personally, I find unboxing good in moderation, while I typically buy all items I need off SCM, I tend to save up leftover cash and after a while I unbox just for fun.

@greypug7769

3 жыл бұрын

you can actually get much better prices on bp.tf, I bought a strange stickybomb launcher on there, got bored of it after 200 hours or so and sold it on SCM for about 3 bucks, i bought it for like 10 ref lol.

@sssswerth5323

2 жыл бұрын

@@greypug7769 yo what??

@greypug7769

2 жыл бұрын

@@sssswerth5323 i said that 11 months ago i have no idea ive totally forgotten lol

these results actually make sense. in fact the last unusual hat i unboxed was actually from the #103 crate

Hey i have never seen your videos before but this one really interested me. I have a math assignment due in a day and i have no idea what i should write about, and i think your video just saved me! I hope you dont mind if i use your data, i will not publish it anywhere for personal gains, i just dont want to fail high school :D

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

yeah sure man, go for it!

I did not know you watch The Professor too! 😅😁 Nice intro!

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

thanks :P

Cousin:Opens 1 case,gets an unusual. Me:Opens 200 crates gets nothing

Got a FN King of the Jungle with Cool effect on my 7th concealed killer case

No idea what's going on but I really appreciate what you've done here.

This is going to make the profitable crates go down

I hopped on a crate unboxing simulator, and unboxed abt 15 mann co munition crates #83, got a professional scattergun killstreak kit, after i did the math, the expenses for keys and the crates were less than the price ($55.05 in expenses vs $66.61 scattergun kit, which came in to about 11.56 in profit), so maybe crates are profitable?

actually used this video to figure out that i should unbox #92 crates, and i ended up getting a strange kritzkrieg on my 4th unbox. thank you!

Does every item in a crate has the same unboxing chance? I wanna try the munition series 92 since there’s a chance to get strange kritskrieg, but I’m not sure whether it would have a lower chance of unboxing.

Today i opened mann co 71 and got a strangifier spy robot killer.I don’t know anything about economy.I just play the game sometimes i trade items from trade it gg to get cosmetics(unique).Is it worth ?

Thanks, now we all know what will happen to every single price of every single crate in a few days...

@sauceboss2210

4 жыл бұрын

Another crate depression possibility?

@No-mh6hg

4 жыл бұрын

Weeepeee

I just do it for the hell of it, I just love the feeling when I get something rare.

Oh yeah , this is big brain time

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

yeee

Was watching this videos, bought a #103 for funsies, opened it and got the damage dealt strange part.

Anyone else remember when he said he'd make a video about high/god tier trading on episode 8 of his trading guide?

Me: Watches video Also Me: Frantically checks inventory for said profitable crates EDIT: I have 1 #103. nice.

can't wait to see the prices of crate #83 shoot up

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

we will see :P

Very well done video!

Were do i get these crates??? I only ever see the basic Halloween, or summer, or season themed crates.

What if I just want to unbox stuff for the sake of getting a single unusual of any value? As my first unusual ever. All creates have the same chance, so any create and case will do?

my friend who merely had only 100 hours on TF2 where I have at least over 2100 hours, GOT A FRICKING UNUSUAL for soldier lets just say I was a bit salty since I don't have one

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

aw :(

im just going to say the head prize is the ultimate go big, or go home unusual goal.

Great video, but just curious about a couple things. Did you exclude unusual miscs when you were making the average unusual prices? Since they're not actually unboxable anymore, using those prices wouldn't be accurate for an somebody trying to unbox unusuals right now. If you didn't exclude I think it would explain why EOTL crates stuck out in one of the earlier graph because the glitch miscs (coldfront stompers, etc.) really jack up the average prices. And in general unusual miscs drive up the average prices of old effects even further than what they really are for an unboxer opening crates/cases today. Also if you didn't know, there's some fascinating research from tf2finance.com from several years ago that determined that the unusual hat unbox rate can't be more than 0.66% compared to the purported 1% chance that everybody assumes is true. The data is from six years ago so most of the results they found like average unusual prices are pretty outdated, stuff like the true unusual unbox rate seems to be very accurate and would hold up over time. Being aware that the chance of unboxing an unusual hat is even lower than the commonly believed chance would have a big effect on the decision to unbox for unusuals.

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Yeah, I excluded all miscs from the results. Even if the coldfront stompers and friends were included, they wouldn't have effected the median results, although they would have had a big effect general "expected value". I've never looked too much into tf2finance but I have heard the 0.66 number been thrown around. I used 1% since it is most commonly quoted number, but your right, it could be closer to 0.66 (at least for hats, not unusualifiers). If it is 0.66 I could see the unusual EVs going down by 10 - 20 cents each. I suppose I should run the numbers with 0.66 to see how the results vary. I'll talk about some of this in my FAQ when I write it.

Mr. Economist, based on your video, would you say that the smartest 100 crate unbox would be for #83? In the case that I might do one.

I got 3 apoco fists with my only 3 keys

@No-mh6hg

4 жыл бұрын

🍌 Banana Fish 🐟 why did you not wait until 2020 now keys are around 60 ref you lost 180/150 ref that could have bought you so many fucking unusuals

Quality over quantity the vidoe

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

:)

looked at this video, unboxed 6 crates. Got complete trash. fml

what if you already have some crates in your inventory from playing and you want to know which ones would make profit when opened and which you should better sell? assuming you have to buy the keys how would that change the numbers?

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Just take the expected values in the video and add the cost of the crate. That way you would get the expected value of the crate assuming you don't have to pay for a key. I don't have the numbers off the top of my head, but they shouldn't too hard to figure out. You could use those to figure out which ones you'd be better off selling as well.

Now I just need something to tell me the interest rate of crates over time. Especially the Halloween ones.

I got the bottle cap after paying for both the summer crate, which was around 50 cents at the time, and the key. 3 dollars for a hat worth 17 cents.

This is my first time unboxing a crate, i got a unusual for Soldier, n i c e

10:00 hey that guy looks familiar

thats some nice amount of programs! now you have experience with all of them and can slap them on ur Cv!

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

:)

Hey dude I unboxed a unusual mercenary grade cool effect and I got it on the new crates so like do you think you could help me out on that, like if you could help me get a price for it

well, getting unusuals in this game is such a rare thing, i opned over 2000+ crates between now and since they exist in the game, didnt get a single unusual. rip.

for the expexted value calculation, is the unbox cost just the crate the unusual was in, or is it the cost of every crate you unboxed finding an unusual? if you unboxed an unusual twice in a single session, would you divide the number of total unboxes between the successful unboxes?

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

The unbox cost is the cost of the crate + the cost of the key. To get unusual Expected Value calculations, I simulated a lot of unboxes, added up the price of each unusual, and then divided by the total number of crates simulated. Then I got the final Expected Value by doing the same thing for regular items and subtracted the cost of the crate and key.

The simple fact that this video exists is going to make those few profitable crates get more demand, thus inflating their price into unprofitability.

How did you get the item probabilities? The wiki probabilities don't always add to 100% last time I checked.

i opened my first crate and i got an unusual!

@babydactyl

2 жыл бұрын

lets gooooooo!!!!

Can someone tell me what the graph looks like but with steam community market cuz market place.tf is ded

Hey Ben and comment scrollers, I want to ask you something. Do you think it's a great idea to get keys to unbox the specific crates you (as in Ben) mentioned? Because I really want to buy some tf2 items, but thought "if I buy these crates instead, I could double the value of money I poured in!", and I am not sure if I want to gamble my cash, but am hearing a lot of positive feedback from people who made profit. Do you think it's a great idea? (On the scale of ~15 crates.) Thanks for the feedback!

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

I wouldn't think of it as a way to double your money. If you want to buy TF2 items, just buy them outright, but if you want to have a little bit of fun and don't mind potentially loosing out, then unboxing would be more worth it for you.

Im pretty now to trading, so i have a question: can i sell a summer 2019 cosmetic key on scrap.tf ?

i dont have paypal, credit or debit tho so i can only use steam cards, so the Mann Co Key Difference (TM) doesnt really mean anything, so do mann co keyed crates and cases really differ too much if we remove the cheapness of mann co keys?

@TheVirtualEconomist

4 жыл бұрын

Technically yeah, the numbers would be reduced if you don't by the keys on Marketplace.tf. I'll talk about that in my FAQ.

@karlovisttimes8271

4 жыл бұрын

@@TheVirtualEconomist thanks

Short answer: Hell no. Long answer: Watch the video.

well I'm kinda sad that you didn't include war paint cases because in my point of view they are the most profitable. you don't even need a unusual in most cases to get some profit since a strange war paint can be pretty good too. I unboxed a strange factory new jazzy from a winter 2017 war paint case and it was worth 60 keys. i unboxed other unusuals from this case too and honestly i've gained more than i've wasted and for me at least its a very good option. if i had spend those 60 keys unboxing more of those i'm sure i would made more money.