HELLO HUMANS. I see many people mentioning the Monty Hall Paradox. I actually discussed that in my video, "What Is A Paradox?" You can also learn more about Falsidical Paradoxes like Two Envelopes. Here is that video: kzread.info/dash/bejne/nX6utdyAksnJYM4.html

@Aura96968

4 жыл бұрын

K

@isaiahthorne7707

4 жыл бұрын

Ohhhh right

@NAT-ld1sh

4 жыл бұрын

Cool

@xXRuce007Xx

4 жыл бұрын

This is very interesting! I can't help but think that it is somehow connected to the double slit theory. Can you possibly tie these two together?

@-RAV3N

4 жыл бұрын

Which was X or 1/2 X then? Why didn't you open one to show if our guesses were right? I will be frustrated by this FOREVER. Trust me I will never forget and probably lose sleep over this. Send help...

kevin just wasted 13 minutes of my time to tell me that a 50% chance really was a 50% chance

@thegreatkingofevilganondor1500

4 жыл бұрын

Paul Bean But did you gain half brain cells or double?! Who knows?!

@chrisjfox8715

4 жыл бұрын

insanity wolf 200%

@researchbothsidesequally4481

4 жыл бұрын

Is this video a complete waste of 13 minutes? Yes!

@sai-chan1460

4 жыл бұрын

You just saved me 7 minutes of my life. Thank you my saviour :D

@whatifyoucouldntchangename7091

4 жыл бұрын

@@researchbothsidesequally4481 the best way to waste 13 mins tho

*plot twist: they contained 0$ the whole time*

@krum6334

4 жыл бұрын

Not a plot twist. The truth

@thomassynths

4 жыл бұрын

Or they both contain debt.

@Wolfiyeethegranddukecerberus17

4 жыл бұрын

Well, one would still contain twice as much as the other.

@thomassynths

4 жыл бұрын

@@Wolfiyeethegranddukecerberus17 Yeah, but the result is negative, so you would always refuse to switch.

@syrialak101

4 жыл бұрын

@@thomassynthsHe literally proved in the video that there would be no advantage or disadvantage to switching.

I've been switching envelopes for 20 years now, multiplying my expected value by 5/4 each time. By now, my expected value is several trillion times x. I will keep switching, until one day, I will open the envelope, and I will expect to be the richest man in the world. At that point, it will all be worth it. Empires will fall at my feet as I use my wealth to rule the world. But for now, I keep switching...

@y2kblackout

3 жыл бұрын

You've wasted your life.

@empirecrumbles615

3 жыл бұрын

Y2K Blackout bruh

@twopeople254

3 жыл бұрын

Oof man

@mr.catfish155

3 жыл бұрын

Patience my friend. Continue the path of the switch, and one day your patience will be rewarded.

@Zeroneii3

3 жыл бұрын

if x is $1 you will become the richest man by opening rn

Me: So, Kevin, should I switch? Kevin: Yesn't.

@galaxycube1016

3 жыл бұрын

Yeno

@canandwillfindyou

3 жыл бұрын

Non't

@haverjamarosi680

3 жыл бұрын

it depends on what you play ... if you got offered 2 envelopes than no, cos its 50-50% But if you got something and you can switch to something twice the price or half, then you should ... Cos you play quadripple or nothing. and its worth it.

@wesgrubbs8437

Жыл бұрын

Nep.

@TellURide447

Жыл бұрын

Nes

kevin: theres a 100% reason you should switch! me: no kevin: yes! me: yes? kevin: NO!!

@janzacharias3680

4 жыл бұрын

Doublebamboozle

@Cam370n_Sm3t

4 жыл бұрын

BlueBurekas 🤣

@LK1

4 жыл бұрын

OoF

@nates9536

4 жыл бұрын

Kevin is the USB stick of humans

@TheBluePhoenix008

4 жыл бұрын

r/storiesaboutkevin

This how multiple choice tests feel

@dewhiterabbit1337

4 жыл бұрын

Ah

@juliansingh5182

4 жыл бұрын

Unless you friggin study...

@dewhiterabbit1337

4 жыл бұрын

@@juliansingh5182 Ahh,

@theluxiemexpress3656

4 жыл бұрын

Ohh ...what’s studying?

@juliansingh5182

4 жыл бұрын

@@theluxiemexpress3656 its a sacred and rare ritual that grants you knowledge, i use it to cheat all my tests and exams

Me: Hears the word "right?" Also me .01 seconds later: Oh no Kevin: WRONG!

@twopeople254

3 жыл бұрын

Me: he's about to say it

@TuxMan

3 жыл бұрын

Facts

@christinabarfoot1389

3 жыл бұрын

And I throw my popcorn every time

@thatssomethingthathappened9823

3 жыл бұрын

So predictable.

@thatssomethingthathappened9823

3 жыл бұрын

He does it every time

"...so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you!"

@thomasbailey921

3 жыл бұрын

"You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is 'never go into a land war in Asia,' but second, and only slightly lesser known, is this: 'never go up against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line!'"

@tarzaan2603

3 жыл бұрын

Jahahahahhahahahaha

Kevin is playing the good cop bad cop routine with maths

@BillboMC

4 жыл бұрын

Kali Takumi that’s actually so true XD

@enderpup9289

4 жыл бұрын

Is that from Brooklyn 99?

@KaliTakumi

4 жыл бұрын

@@enderpup9289 Not that I know of. I don't really watch the show

@CpCubeR

4 жыл бұрын

Right?

@enderpup9289

4 жыл бұрын

Kali Takumi Kevin( police captain) was arguing with his boyfriend about a similar problem: the 3 game show doors. They argued about switching the door or not

Me: *opens envelope 1* Envelope 1: *contains 1 penny* Me: Ok let me switch Envelope 2: *contains a penny cut in half* Me: oh...

@nathanrcoe1132

4 жыл бұрын

some currencies have (or had) a half penny

@Yours--Truly

4 жыл бұрын

But then 0 isn't a half of .01 dollars. It was a counterfeit penny in the first place

@thatoneguy4584

4 жыл бұрын

But even if it is a fake penny, it is still better than nothing!

@sylvia7961

4 жыл бұрын

@@thatoneguy4584 actually that would be fun to explain to the cops if they found out

@fos1451

4 жыл бұрын

@@thatoneguy4584 if you don't know it's a fake pennies and you use it to buy something, you can get in a real trouble

Kevin is probably the only guy that could make a 2 hour video on the answer to 2+2 and keep me interested the whole time

@squeaksquawk4255

Жыл бұрын

I want this to happen so much.

@devoarco5084

10 ай бұрын

there's actually a whole book with a thousand pages of mathematical Notation to prove 1+1=2. It's called principia mathematica (not from newton but from russell)

I feel like the pitch for Vsauce2 is a man who went down the rabbit hole and is still falling

@shinkamui

2 жыл бұрын

and the rabbit that dug the whole is regular vsauce

Everybody gangsta till Kevin is here with 2 envelopes

@abed3111

4 жыл бұрын

I, too was a gangsta but then Kevin came with 2 envelopes

@David-mf3bn

4 жыл бұрын

But I am Gangsta

@killthemtodayrightnowtoday

4 жыл бұрын

OG Gangsta Not anymore OG (Non)gangsta

@TAussieG

4 жыл бұрын

I wasnt gangsta but became even less gangsta

@ihatemosquitos1037

4 жыл бұрын

ur everywhere

"If you're confused right now, GOOD!" - Vsauce2 2019

@DRKongo-vi8ok

4 жыл бұрын

wrong

@senzu._bean

4 жыл бұрын

I literally read this as he said it🤣🤣🤣 No joke

@danltg

3 жыл бұрын

You mean ripoff vsauce

@stealthemoon8899

3 жыл бұрын

@@danltg oh, you're right -Vsauce2 2019

@Ronnie7X

3 жыл бұрын

jock willink: Thought switching the envelope changes anything? GOOD

*When you need to meet the 10 minute criteria:* "Soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo..."

@ivyvetniss3148

4 жыл бұрын

Lol

@bb-xw1np

4 жыл бұрын

well it's a 12 minute long video soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

@Woldhardestgamer

3 жыл бұрын

@@bb-xw1np i scrolled really hard after expanding you comment and i'm quite underwhelmed...

@bb-xw1np

3 жыл бұрын

@@Woldhardestgamer "o" is the best letter you just have bad taste in letters

@irenaveksler1935

3 жыл бұрын

Trash Duck is it tho?

Where X is the smaller amount, the envelope you pick has either X or 2X averaging out to 1.5X (Same as the one the didn’t pick). The flaw is setting the amount in envelope A to X when X can be two different values.

@ewicky

Жыл бұрын

Exactly. I came here to say the same thing. I'm not even sure why this is a "paradox" when the solution is so obvious.

@tmorid3

Жыл бұрын

It's not - bc you either multiple your prize (if the envelope you chose is the smaller one), or lose half of your amount (if it's the larger one). The thing is that you don't know that x is the smaller one, but just the amount in the first envelope.

@Ooopsi

9 ай бұрын

The issue is that the amount in each envelope, even if we don't know it as the player, is fixed before the choice of switching is even offered. If the lower value is 50 dollars, we know the other one is 100 dollars and there's no benefit for switching as both are equally likely. The expected value leading to 5/4X nonsense assumes that the value of the first envelope is fixed, and the value of the second is not decided yet. It assumes that if the first envelope has 50, the other could have 25 or 100, in which case it makes sense to switch. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way with predecided values because either you start with the lower value X and double to 2X, or you start with the higher value 2X and drop down to X. There's no X/2 here, the X/2 is simply 2X/2=X.

So if there was 'V' in one of them, what about the other one? 'W' or '\'?

@matheuscordeiroKH

4 жыл бұрын

maybe the other could be 'X'

@caleb9659

4 жыл бұрын

It's a V made of two lines, so it'd either be a W or a V made of one line

@roshanprabu

4 жыл бұрын

It is /

@keelekeele

4 жыл бұрын

The other envelope was labeled. X is the roman number for 10 while V is 5. As the title stated, you should NOT switch from x. ;)

@DEFCON1GAMRS

4 жыл бұрын

keelekeele i dont think this is intentional but feels like a good time to get high

I sure do love how arbitrarily assigned variables can cause issues.

@kangalio

4 жыл бұрын

Yeah I feel like that was the real issue all along.

@alexzander7629

4 жыл бұрын

Caleb Smith Well actually it’s not arbitrary. The 2x and 1/2x is kinda, but the idea holds in all cases because there is some real number you can multiply the amount in Envelope 1 to get the amount in Envelope 2, and this a number you can divide (or multiply the inverse of) the amount in E2 to get the amount in E1. The idea is that by taking into account this mathematical relationship between the two amounts, you can say that it is always better to switch despite “common sense” as it were telling you it’s just a coin flip. And he explains at the end why thinking with that ratio in mind creates the false paradox.

@amosvideojournals9589

4 жыл бұрын

@@alexzander7629 The part that makes it arbitrary is that either variable could be x. There is no real reasoning to calling envelope one x, when envelope 2 could easily be x as well. He demonstrates this in the video by showing that player one and player two both believe that their envelope is x. Since we don't know which is which in this scenario, we should be assigning two variables here. Edit: Removed a bit near the end. I missed the read more in your comment at first.

@gidelix

4 жыл бұрын

Just what I wanted to say. I’d go n = 2k or x and y or something. I’m positive doing the maths in that case will net you a system of equations which can be solved for his x/3 and 2x/3. I’m too lazy though so go figure it out yourself. (No offence, just a quote from my maths professor)

@jacobrzewnicki1832

4 жыл бұрын

Caleb Smith exactly, why assume the envelope you pick is only x but the other can be 2x or x

TL;DR: The expected value must not depend on a random variable.

@luck3949

3 жыл бұрын

Thanks. I didn't understand this paradox before reading your comment.

@hetgenie

2 жыл бұрын

Still: you have nothing to begin with; in a 50-50 scenario you can double your gain, I'd take that risk anytime. Worst case scenario my profit is halved, but I still have more than I began with. People play the lottery with way slimmer chances to win anything at all.

No one: Sprint commercials: Should You Switch? YES!

Nintendo: Do you switch? Vsauce: No

@anthonybusch

4 жыл бұрын

especially with the joy-con colors on his face

@ocomentador7444

4 жыл бұрын

*wrong*

@kanakousakis

4 жыл бұрын

@@ocomentador7444 right?

@somerandomguy___

4 жыл бұрын

Vsause1 : or DO you?

@jonnyp1340

4 жыл бұрын

WRONG

Should you switch? Vsause: "Well yes, but actually no."

@Vivi-yw1eu

4 жыл бұрын

but actually yes

@krajsyboys

4 жыл бұрын

@@Vivi-yw1eu but actually no

@mwperk02

4 жыл бұрын

@@krajsyboys But actually yes.

@bang1054

4 жыл бұрын

@Mathew Perkins But actually No

@alanosoelpoderoso1912

4 жыл бұрын

Bang 10 But actually, as the expected valué states, Yes.

Q: Should I switch or not? A: Yes.

The 5/4 X result comes from faulty math. X is used to mean 2 different numbers which is not the proper use of a variable. It need to be set to either the higher value or the lower value and shouldn’t change within the same equation

@toastman3955

Жыл бұрын

That’s explained in the video

@gopalsinghrathore1346

Жыл бұрын

@@toastman3955 but isnt that how probability works. I coudnt understand why behind it

@toastman3955

Жыл бұрын

@@gopalsinghrathore1346 In the video, he explains exactly why the beginning math is really false. He plays off the premise that it is true until the end where he brings up the exact problem that the other envelope cannot be both 2X and 1/2X, but the correct way to write it would be an overall loss or gain of X/3 which balances out to make switching not optimal or not optimal.

Michael: "true statement. Or is it?" Kevin: "true statement, right? WRONG! Actually RIGHT!"

@bastiliedtk4390

4 жыл бұрын

Nicholas McGinty Wrong

@jordanmartinez4078

4 жыл бұрын

We miss micheal

@simon6071

4 жыл бұрын

Man to woman in bed: Is it true that when a woman in bed with a man she loves means yes when she says no? Woman: No.

@christoperjohnteodosio2688

4 жыл бұрын

¤😆😕

@decyted6847

4 жыл бұрын

@@jordanmartinez4078 where is he?

So "eeny, meeny, miny, moe" _doesn't_ exponentially improve my odds of picking the correct envelope? Darn.

This once again reminds me of an old adage by Mark Twain: "There are Liars; Damned Liars; and Statisticians."

@insertclevernamehere2506

3 жыл бұрын

It's a math problem, not a statistical one, though I'd side with Twain anyway :)

@nmotschidontwannagivemyrea8932

3 жыл бұрын

@@insertclevernamehere2506 Statistics is a form of math. Your comment is like if I said to NASA, "Getting to Mars is a science and engineering problem, not an astronomical one."

It's the same as "Deal or no deal", in the end, when there are only 2 boxes left, the banker almost always offers to switch boxes (at least in the show that I watched). A lot of people who switched got screwed over, but then a lot of people who didn't switch were also screwed over.

@Edyledyl

2 жыл бұрын

This is actually a different problem despite the fact that it seems similar. In Deal or No Deal you gain information as boxes are opened, and this information actually increases the expected value of switching at the end. Deal or No Deal is an extension of the Monty Hall problem, and there actually is a benefit to switching because of the information we gain as boxes are opened. For the two envelope paradox though, there is no increase in expected value from switching. The two envelope paradox is actually related to a quirk in the law of total expectation.

@weir9996

2 жыл бұрын

@@Edyledyl Deal or No Deal isn't quite the same as Monty Hall as you open cases randomly. Monty knew what was behind each door and acted accordingly. In Deal or No Deal the odds are the same whether or not you switch

@duck1sgood

2 жыл бұрын

@@weir9996 wait but you see the boxes that were open so you definitely can make out the new probability of the switching being worth it right? I never watch the show so Im just guessing

@richjhart

2 жыл бұрын

@@duck1sgood Once there are only two boxes left, it's 50/50. You do have all the information about the open boxes - the only information you have about the remaining 2 boxes is that they definitely have different values in them. So it is exactly the same as the two envelope problem.

@iamadooddood4331

2 жыл бұрын

@@Edyledyl The given situation however refers to when there are only 2 boxes left, by which it reduces to the 2 envelope paradox.

Anyone else think “ohh no another Monty hall” when this started

@kruton93

4 жыл бұрын

and then it got much, much, much more complicated.

@oni8337

4 жыл бұрын

true

@nuansakautsar5687

4 жыл бұрын

yep

@lilzachx4629

4 жыл бұрын

Yup

@nirorit

4 жыл бұрын

@@kruton93 monty hall is just as complicated

Yes No Maybe I don't know Can you repeat the question

@Clodagh400

4 жыл бұрын

Your not the boss of me now

@UODZU-P

4 жыл бұрын

@@Clodagh400 what about my not the boss of you now?

@Clodagh400

4 жыл бұрын

It's the song for maclom and middle

@fromthegamethrone

4 жыл бұрын

@@Clodagh400 my not the boss of me now?

@benjaminevans9205

4 жыл бұрын

Hotel travago

There was a bit of a flaw. Rather than one being "X" and the other being "2X or 1/2X", it should be both of them being "2X or X"

@thundersheild926

3 жыл бұрын

Exactly. The mislabelling of x is what leads to thus apparent paradox. If you swap out x for what it actually represents in the two probabilities, you get (1/2)*(100)+(1/2)*(50)=75, which makes perfect sense. Still, it's fun to try and spot the error.

@ireallydontknow3299

3 жыл бұрын

Yeah, that's what the solution at the end addresses. Regardless of how much is in one of the envelopes, their total doesn't change. Saying yours has X and the other 1/2 * X neglects that fact, as it makes the total for the "I have the smaller one" equal to 3X, while "I have the larger one" becomes 3/2 * X, which is absurd.

@subzero.cuber47

3 жыл бұрын

True, since 1/2X × 2 = X, not 2X

@HeHe-du4le

3 жыл бұрын

I didn’t think of it that way, interesting. Thanks!

@TheGrapeApe22

3 жыл бұрын

Yeah but that makes a possibility that both values are the same...

I think the error is assuming that 2x and x/2 are equally likely. If you know that's true then you should definitely switch. For example, if you know that the higher value was chosen from a uniform distribution and that x is at most half of the maximum value, then switching is correct. If there's no maximum value then it's not a uniform distribution (and higher numbers will typically be less likely, immediately solving the issue). If you don't know how the numbers were selected, then it's not a well-defined problem. Just because you selected one at random doesn't mean that (x/2, x) and (x, 2x) are equally likely to be the case.

me: so you should switch? kevin: **angry space baby noises**

I showed my cat this. She's now working at the bank

@therobotics1rthegreat157

4 жыл бұрын

I think I did something wrong. Showed it to my hamster an it is now running a multi level marketing scheme and wants me to invest.

@RobotAnimals

4 жыл бұрын

Instructions Unclear: My dog is now the boss.

@David-mf3bn

4 жыл бұрын

@@therobotics1rthegreat157 good one

Me: Oh, I think im understanding it... Kevin: WRONG!!

I think I understand it. You need to factor in that there is only one total sum, not two. So, the problem with 2X vs 1/2 X is that in one, you have X and the other 2X, in the other one, you have 2X, and the other one X. 3X (the total) however has a different value in each, depending on what value your envelope has. So let's assume you have 10$. In one case, X = 10$, the other envelope has 20$, total is 30$. In the other case, X = 5$, the other envelope has 5$, total is 15$. Note that the total changed. But the total doesn't actually change, and the calculations need to reflect that. They do not reflect that, instead they view it from the perspective of having one envelope.

@rfvtgbzhn

5 ай бұрын

Yes, that's the case in the first example. In the second example the total isn't fixed because the coin toss happens after you chose the envelope. This also explains why it makes sense for both players to switch in the second example.

I am watching this in the middle of the night and I am like, transcending several planes of mental gymnastics. Help.

@Dark_Slayer3000

4 жыл бұрын

This was but a warmup. Get ready to get high on math

@zt3853

4 жыл бұрын

*snorts geometry*

@OMGclueless

4 жыл бұрын

If it helps: if you lose x/2 by switching, then x must have been the bigger number. If you gain x by switching, then x must have been the smaller number. So you can't just add up the gains and losses in terms of x because the value of x is not independent of whether your number is smaller or larger.

@blutwirbel3180

3 жыл бұрын

@@OMGclueless I don't think that helped

@finedig1854

3 жыл бұрын

@@blutwirbel3180 especially since the guy sent it 3 months after op was confused

God the final bit saved me, the whole time I thought I was losing my mind "why are you adding in X when neither contains X by the rules you're outlining or did I just miss something????" the X is a lie

@niapor

4 жыл бұрын

@@nathan5160 from what VSAUCE2 says, ( if it is only one bill always ) one envelope has to be X and the other Y will be = X/2 or 2X as the other envelope ( from what I understand ) can be more than X or less than X but never equal , the only constants are that if X is 1, than Y is 2 as an example, but as 2 does not have double than both 2 and 1 are out, 5 does not have half thus is out, since 5 is out 10 is out, which means 20 is out since 10 is not available and there is no 40 bill, 50 is out because there is no 25, thus eliminating 100 as now 50 is not available PLUS there is no 200 bill, thus we can never have this premise now if we go with premise that X is "either" X/2 or 2X compared to the other envelope ( but NOT BOTH necessarily ) than we have as possible sets only 4 ( and we can know what the other is if we can see the chosen envelope before possible switch with 6 possible bills, with only the 10 dollar bill being one that is a true 50-50 choice ) 1-2 5-10 10-20 50-100

@akkok5059

4 жыл бұрын

It's simple. Choose one, it's 50-50 lol don't overthink it

@icefang111

4 жыл бұрын

@@akkok5059 Exactly!

@Koby777

4 жыл бұрын

The method for calculating Expected Value, as demonstrated at 4:18 is wrong. Expected Value also takes into consideration the cost of your decision. In each case, we lose the value of x from either decision, so it looks something like, 0.5(2x-x) + 0.5(0.5x-x) = 0.5x - 0.5x = 0 therefore no expected value gain.

@boghag

4 жыл бұрын

@@Koby777 0.5(2x-x) + 0.5(0.5x-x) = 0.5x + 0.5(-0.5x) = 0.5x - 0.25x = 0.25x (expected gain, this is equivalent to 1.25x expected value, which is 5/4x as shown in the video). Your math was wrong, sorry

michael in vsauce: your confused? here is a quick runner up for you kevin in vsauce: 8:17

You're hilarious when you say one way is the best way and then you change your mind, like the beginning of this video! RIGHT! WRONG! Your showmanship is very unique and entertaining! Your explanations and use of examples are much easier to understand than other people's explanations. You've got a great show, well thought out, very informative and has the perfect amount of clever humor! Thank you!!!

Switching to Geico could save you 15%

@e2gaming337

4 жыл бұрын

or more

@guy3nder529

4 жыл бұрын

indeed kevin: no!

@Mandyyyyyy258

4 жыл бұрын

Or more on car insurance

@edgarmiranda1822

4 жыл бұрын

wrong!!!!!!!!! or does it????

@niapor

4 жыл бұрын

I always do the right choice, because I always stay at the Holiday Inn Express

Vsauce: Theres just no value in switching Verizon: WELL SCREW YOU

@user-qh5jk1mn5i

4 жыл бұрын

Alpha Mit3 *breathes out of nose slightly

@jamesmoriarty9433

4 жыл бұрын

AT&T 😤👌🔥💯

@GaryoXGaming

4 жыл бұрын

Marshall Kimber haha yes yes

@GaryoXGaming

4 жыл бұрын

The Donovan At&t is better🤔

@jamesmoriarty9433

4 жыл бұрын

@@GaryoXGaming Yee

I've seen so many videos that say that "you should always switch because math" and ends there. The conclustion at the end makes this video so worth watching

The problem with the math in the switch option is that x is arbitrarily assigned to your envelope. You could just as easily assign the value 2x or 1/2 x to that and x to the other envelope.

When I first came across this I thought "How could this drongo have any subscribers"? But I watched on and was surprised to see he was actually quite entertaining and the subject can be looked at so many ways. Well done you. Perhaps if more teachers had this style their students could absorb lessons better.

@Vsauce2

4 жыл бұрын

Did you subscribe to the drongo?

@mariafe7050

3 жыл бұрын

Well, did you?

@aartigodia3422

3 жыл бұрын

@@Vsauce2 yesn't

@RafaelMunizYT

2 жыл бұрын

@@Vsauce2 do the maths and find out by yourself

plot twist: one of the envelope contains a reverse card

@martinmilchov4065

4 жыл бұрын

So the other one contains a double reverse card... Or is it a half reverse card?!?

@zt3853

4 жыл бұрын

Мартин Милчов 0-o

@irenaveksler1935

3 жыл бұрын

Мартин Милчов LOL

@collinsnow2203

3 жыл бұрын

So does that mean the envelope chooses you to open up instead lmfao

@lusamine7925

3 жыл бұрын

It actually contains v sauce 2... So does the other contain v sauce 1, or v sauce 4???

The problem is that both envelopes are x. It’s wrong to think of one as x and the other 2x or 1/2x. Cause you don’t know if your x is either x, 1/2x, or 2x. You have two choices keep or trade. Keep your x so your assuming you have x or 2x. Or trade assuming you have x or 1/2x. Both are sound logic cause it’s impossible to know which one is x. Edit- Btw both are x cause both are separated equations. Try and solve a

Simple solution: *don’t switch cuz if u get the lower dollar envelope u will feel bad*

question: od you switch? Kevin: Well no, but actually yes but actually no.

This problem scares the shit out of me. Thanks for reducing my confidence in any kind of logical reasoning that I had to 0. If the paradox is not obvious for this extremly simple scenario, I can only imagine it hidden in a complex scenario

Sliding the envelopes away and erasing the numbers at 1:14 was slick as hoopla.

kevin: 50% is not 50% me: no it is kevin: YES! me: Yes? Kevin: NO! me: 50% = 50% kevin: no, actually 50% = 50% me: wat kevin: 25%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@kittycypher

4 жыл бұрын

XD

@levithe2nd

4 жыл бұрын

@@kittycypher XD 2XD 1/2XD 5/4XD

@kittycypher

4 жыл бұрын

3.14159XD is equal to infinite XD arranged in the form of Pi. 🥧 :)

@artluka0727

3 жыл бұрын

Kevin: Right? me: ye... Kevin: WRONG, it's 50%

@canandwillfindyou

3 жыл бұрын

Kevin: 50%=50% Everyone: yes Kevin: _NO THAT'S WRONG!!!!_

Kevin: But don't worry, it gets weirder! Me: Thank goodness I was worried for a second that it wasn't going to

At 6:27 you are changing your value of x. When one envelope is X and the other is 2X that means X is easily to the lower value. When one envelope is X and the other is 1/2X or 2X than x is equal to the value in the first envelope. To clarify in situation one x is always lower but in situation two x could be lower or higher

That was always my problem in Statistics course... Identifying the entirety of the sample space, particularly when applying some sort of problem space map to the situation.

- "Hey! do you watch Vsauce?" - yes - "do you understand it?" - no

@Daniel_WR_Hart

3 жыл бұрын

- WRONG!

@alexbitzan8747

3 жыл бұрын

It’s not THAT difficult to understand. It just takes a little thought

@JohnDoe-kc5kv

3 жыл бұрын

yes no yes no

Kevin- Yes? Me- yes! Kevin- NO! Me- Maybe? Kevin- PARADOX

@JesperoTV

4 жыл бұрын

Hotel- trivago

@jrrwtch

4 жыл бұрын

xXjesperoXx WoW just wow

@Hallowed_Ground

4 жыл бұрын

This one is dumb. Seems like it's just copying everyone else's joke.

@kit_nine

4 жыл бұрын

@Juan Cortez Muro TAKE THIS *REPORT* TO THE FACE

Just the opposite of the Monte Hall problem, where you are ALWAYS supposed to switch.

Almost always when math confuses a problem, you're using it wrong.

@Djordymans

4 жыл бұрын

Tbh with this it only becomes a paradox when you use math.

@diamondminer81

4 жыл бұрын

@@Djordymans He just did the math wrong.

Wait so at the end the one Envelope had "V" so that must be the smaller one. The other contains "W"?

@Epic_Pingu

4 жыл бұрын

maybe the other one contains "\" or "/" though. hmmmmm...

@carbongaming9612

4 жыл бұрын

But the other envelope contains 'double' the amount. / And \, as far as I can tell one isn't twice the amount of the other

@overloader7900

4 жыл бұрын

\ and / are halfs of V

@carbongaming9612

4 жыл бұрын

Ah I see I'm thinking wrong!

@DaP84

4 жыл бұрын

The other one could be X, two V's mirrored vertically. :P Or "diamonds"

"Should you switch?" "Yesn't." "Because human brains are randomized and not like computers."

@averagemilffan

4 жыл бұрын

Bruh I'm just some high school kid but I think human brains are made up of complex circuits. We use these types of circuits in A.I and neural network

I never seen the 2 envelopes before but the whole time I was thinking the 2x was wrong math and you needed to use total sums. Thank you now I feel smart for the day.

It's much easier to analyze all possible cases. So, let's assume the larger amount is in envelope 1: - You choose 1, you don't switch -> you win - You choose 1, you switch -> you lose - You choose 2, you don't switch -> you lose - You choose 2, you switch -> you win So, do whatever you want. No special behavior will increase the probability of winning. This, by the way, is exactly what does NOT happen with the Monty Hall problem, where there are 3 doors, a car is behind one, a goat is behind each of the others, and in every case, you're shown one of the other doors, which always contains a goat. In the Monty Hall problem, there is a high probability to benefit from switching, and it can be easily proven. If we assume the car is behind door 1: - You choose 1, you're shown a random door, you switch -> you lose - You choose 2, you're shown 3, you switch -> you win - You choose 3, you're shown 2, you switch -> you win - You choose 1, you're show a random door, you don't switch -> you win - You choose 2, you're shown 3, you don't switch -> you lose - You choose 3, you're shown 2, you don't switch -> you lose

"""This is what you probably already knew until we got math involved !!! !!!""" WHAT A FANTASTIC thing to say to anyone involved in Math for making a living !!!

@Rikri

4 жыл бұрын

*Math or logic. Without math we couldn't debunk this paradox that would have worked with some logic anyways.

The light angle in this video makes you look like you’re in a presidential poster

@hyche_-6790

4 жыл бұрын

In math we trust

@jamesmerkel1932

4 жыл бұрын

NO YOU CAN!!!

@jebkerman5422

4 жыл бұрын

I will create a great paradox and I will make your logic pay for it MAKE MATH GREAT AGAIN

@notyepdranel961

4 жыл бұрын

Or in almost any movie poster

Was thinking of having a separate unit instead of just saying envelope 1 is “x” (like you set it up at the beginning), only to realize it really just was that simple… I love these puzzles, they make you think a bit but they’re not too difficult to where you get frustrated trying to find the explanation.

I knew there was an issue with the math but I couldn’t comprehend what was wrong with it.

When math doesn't match reality, that means that you've got a flawed assumption somewhere, da?

@davidbarroso1960

4 жыл бұрын

The flawed assumption is when he was assigning the variable x in the first half of the video. X isn’t constant in that case because it could be two different values. It’s a mathematical trick. There’s really two variables that he’s assigning as one which leads to the paradox. It’s just bad math. In the last part, he assigns the total sum as x, and x is now a constant because the total sum can only be one value, which gets him the right answer

@abijo5052

4 жыл бұрын

@@davidbarroso1960 yeah you can see why Schrödinger could have come up with it, it's very similar to a lot of quantum mechanical questions. He let X be a variable that can take on one of two states, but then treated it like a regular variable, which doesn't work.

@ryanodd4149

4 жыл бұрын

@@davidbarroso1960 Wait what if you were to open one of the envelopes? Then X is assigned, and if I'm correct, it is always worthwhile to switch?

@Nukestarmaster

4 жыл бұрын

@@ryanodd4149 Nope, opening the envelope still doesn't change anything.

@unliving_ball_of_gas

4 жыл бұрын

@@Nukestarmaster Wait,waa.. Doesn't that means that I will know how much there actually is inside so I could decide to switch or not?

Wait a minute. I've watched this multiple times, and I think the explanation at 8:48 - 9:51 is just a roundabout way of restating the argument first made at 6:12 - 6:22. Since (2X)/3 = 2(X/3), if we assign Y = X/3, then one envelope contains Y and the other contains 2Y, and we're right back where we started, with the crucial variable merely re-labeled. The expected value of switching is then calculated as (1/2)(2Y - Y) + (1/2)(Y - 2Y) = 0. The denominator of 3 is completely moot. It doesn't seem to add anything useful to the calculation. All you have to do is substitute X/3 for Y in that last equation, and the result will be practically identical to what Kevin wrote on his dry-erase table. Also, while this isn't quite a recapitulation of the Monty Hall problem, all it would take to become little more than just that is a third envelope, maybe with a potential prize of 3X. It would be slightly different, since the two losing envelopes wouldn't be of equal value (like the two goats in Monty Hall), but both would still be significantly less than the winning one. So while an application of expected value might work out a bit differently, your binary chances of choosing the single winning envelope (the one with the largest prize) would be subject to the same paradox.

@miyuiismells

4 жыл бұрын

This man wrote an entire freakin essay

@raihanalam9

4 жыл бұрын

Words

@vedanshbudhia8148

4 жыл бұрын

Wtf

@knewbod

4 жыл бұрын

The point of the explanation is to re-frame the problem. The paradox occures because one is mxing two different universes and is using X wrong. The reason for X 1/3 and X 2/3 is to make it clear one must think of the total sum of the envelopes as constant. Once you do that you stay in the same universe and the paradox goes away. Saying one envelope is Y and the other 2Y, is just saying the entire universe has a value of 3Y (and then doing the math for both switched from there). This works but it's confusing, since we seem to be using Y the same as the original X, when we are not. In the origonal example we are mixing the universe with a total value of 3X and the universe with a total value of 1 1/2 X. In the new one we're not. Changing X to be the total value is an attempt to break out of that thinking.

@unliving_ball_of_gas

4 жыл бұрын

Wow......so long

The first formula would work in the case where you put $X on the table and have it either doubled or halved. By repeating this game, you would gain 25% of your bet each time on average, because what there is to gain is larger than what there is to lose. This is why this game was never played in a casino.

That x/3 solution was so satisfying

Friends: Don't over think things Me:

Kevin: Right? Me: Uhhhh... ye.. Yes Keving: WRONG!

@user-lv8uo6gg2r

4 жыл бұрын

Kevin: Right? Me: Uhhhh... ye.. Yes Kevin: WRONG And I have a scientific math explanation, right? Me: Ya, tell me that Kevin: *WRONG!*

Kevin is the king of solving paradoxes I didn’t know exists.

I was so pissed off by the untimely t-shirt ad that I didn't bother to go through the rest of the video to see what the answer was

This is my favorite V sauce channel. I like the other channels, but when i look at my youtube and see that Kevin uploaded a video i get particularaly excited. Does anyone else agree? Kevin if you read this we want more uploads from you!!

@gamingworld8355

4 жыл бұрын

Me

Youre counting it as "losing" something if you get the lower number. Dont forget youre always gaining x.

@HJHawley7677

4 жыл бұрын

Tyler Hayes that’s not the problem here.

@LLPTV

4 жыл бұрын

You're only gaining X if the other letter is 2X, otherwise the you're gaining 1/2 X, with the other letter containing X. The value of both letters, need to be considered, otherwise you're "losing" imaginary value.

@WilliamElliottHinson

4 жыл бұрын

Opportunity costs. If you could get 200 but you get 100, you lost 100.

Thank you, I thought this would be another video to neglect this fact, or similar in other problems

The thing is, If the other envelope has $X/2, X isn't the same as the X in the first. If the second one is the smaller value, it's actually X, not X/2, and the first one was actually X, since, if we do call it X/2, the X in the first and second cases aren't the same.

9:56 "Is probably what you knew until we got math involved"

@lusamine7925

3 жыл бұрын

School in a nutshell

This video made me burst out laughing so many times... All while learning!

Im so happy I just guessed to keep switching because of expected value. I encountered a similar problem like this in school but with a fair dice

*A simple explanation* *You have to choose from two envelopes, you chose one and now you have the opportunity to switch.* *The paradox arise after choosing your envelope when you consider both scenarios(simultaneously) that the other envelope can contain either double or half of the amount of your envelope.* *But you need to understand that only one scenario is actually true and the other envelope either contains half or double the amount of your envelope.* *So, if your envelope contains x and other contains x/2, you loose x/2 or gain x/2 (if your envelope was x/2).* *and if your envelope contains x and other contains 2x, you gain x or loose x.* *Either way you gain or loose the same amount, hence switching makes no difference* *Peace*

@Djordymans

4 жыл бұрын

But if you make X 10 dollar. You either gain 10 or lose 5. Now it is worth switching. See where the paradox is comming from? Im not going against you btw. Im just stating why it’s a paradox. Im a pick and stick with your choice type of guy but i can see why using math makes you want to change.

@marshallh.7553

4 жыл бұрын

Djordymans did you watch the whole video? He explains at the end why it’s a falsidical paradox not an actual one. It’s not a real paradox. Switching doesn’t matter either way.

@nickeastmusic9930

4 жыл бұрын

@@Djordymans This is a late reply, but i hope it still helps. The likelyhood of X being 10 and switching envlopes and winning 10 extra dollars is EXACTLY as high as picking a 20 dollar envelope as your X and losing 10 dollars. Picking an envelope with 10 dollars and then switching and winning an extra 10 is exactly as likely as picking an envelope with 20 dollars and losing 10. So switching has no value whatsoever. If you think about it this way, it seems really easy to understand and i dont know why it isnt explained that way.

@isleohagger5455

2 жыл бұрын

No. Let's say you open the envelope you chose, and it contains $20. Now you have the option to switch. If you do, you will get either $40 or $10, the average overall profit is $25 instead of $20. So it's better to switch.

The chaotic energy in this video is the sustenance my brain desires.

"But that make no sense!" -Kevin 2019

@Daniel-gk1dp

4 жыл бұрын

Enz Be shut up with ur quotes

@EnzoHetJoch

4 жыл бұрын

Appelspeler op kankeren

I like coming back to this video every now and then because of the monogatri series.

Literally every time he made me go “what that’s not possible” I stopped the video to think about it for a sec and then literally thought up what he was just about to say

Plot Twist: The envelopes don't exist, you won't get anything no matter what.

I feel like the faulty math comes from when you assume that the other envelope either contains twice X or half of X. If you actually gave the values of the envelopes values, unbenounced to you, you'd see how that math doesn't work out. If x is the lower value, it doesn't double the value of the other envelope because the value of both envelopes was predetermined. It's a little confusing but basically I can try to sumerize. The value of the other envelope is predetermined so it could be 2x or 1/2x, but the probability thereof isn't actually 50% it's 100% one or the other, even if you don't know, even if you guess right or wrong.

Schrodinger's envelope - until you open it, it contains both the greater and lesser amount simultaneously.

Im watching this at 6am right after a sleep paralisis nightmare, I dont feel any better

the expected value only makes sense if we try the same experiment a lot of times, but we need to keep X constant (only with infinite tries probability truly converges) and yeah, if you can see the content of your envelope (let's say it's 5$) and there's a 50% chance switching will get you 10$ and a 50% chance switching can give you 2.50$ you only get the expected value if you play the game a lot of times, if you play it 100 times, always starting from 5$ and always switching you'll get 625$ on average instead of getting 500$, this only happens cause we fixed X, we decided it to be 5$ which makes the second envelope's possibilities restricted, either it contains 10$ or 2.50$, but if X is not fixed we need to take that into account when calculating the expected value, and the result is undecidable cause X is any random amount

@iainmacleod7169

4 жыл бұрын

This is a great comment, thank you. Am I right in saying we can't try the same experiment an infinite number of times such that probability converges if we have no fixed value for X?

@f.p.5410

4 жыл бұрын

Nope, doesn't work that way. As soon as you start doing your game with X constant, you've changed game. It's not the same game anymore and its results don't tell you anything about the original game. Also, you absolutely can play this game (both the right and the wrong interpretation) infinite times even when X is a random amount and, as long as the hypothesis of the law of large numbers are satisfied, the mean will converge. The result is never undecidable but it depends on "what kind of random" X is.

@iainmacleod7169

4 жыл бұрын

@@f.p.5410 Can you elaborate on that last sentence?

@quakquak6141

4 жыл бұрын

@@f.p.5410 the game is different, I agree, and this is where the math makes it look like a paradox, cause we are discussing about 2 different games at the same time without realizing it

@quakquak6141

4 жыл бұрын

@@iainmacleod7169 I'm not sure, I think if we don't have a fixed value of X we must consider all possible Xs, I'm not sure, but it would be a really weird infinite sum, it might converge to something, Idk

I'm fckin high and I am gonna watch this, o'boy!

@jonasrogier

4 жыл бұрын

✧ Sanguinary same😆😆

@guy3nder529

4 жыл бұрын

oh yes thats always fun

@san4os94

4 жыл бұрын

weird flex but ok

@Calliopeassociatio

4 жыл бұрын

you're not alone, bud

@sados7884

4 жыл бұрын

You wanna talk about it bud?

In this experiment we assume that X is uniformly distributed between 0 and infinity and this is not possible. We simply cannot work in a probability setting and terms like expectations are not well defined.

When you look at the original Expected Values of X , 2X and 1/2X you do see a small gain is switching. But, you get the same conclusion if you look at the choice of not switching; you end up with an expected gain of 5/4 as well. In other words, let the other envelope have X dollars in it, then YOU have either 2X or 1/2X. Kevin sort of hinted at this when he said switching back and forth gets you nowhere, it's basically the same conclusion. No net advantage.

Paradoxes happen when you don't know how to apply math to your problem.

The 5/4 isnt the value from switching, its the average return for playing the game. Not very confusing

@Corey_Bee

4 жыл бұрын

No, 5/4 is just bad math.

@ertertz9408

4 жыл бұрын

@@Corey_Bee I love how smug he sounds while posting (mostly) wrong stuff on KZread.

@VaporMagyk

4 жыл бұрын

its only 5/4 because you assume that the other will either be double or half. at the beginning he said you had 2 envelopes with unknown values so you dont know if one is double or half it could literally be like +/- 0.01 and that would change the 5/4 expected outcome. he is literally changing the scenario to choose what he wants to do

@honeybadger_sc9816

4 жыл бұрын

Your average return for playing is the mean of the 2 numbers in the envelopes. 3x/2

@Broockle

4 жыл бұрын

I can't even follow the line of reasoning for that. It's all still a 50%chance anyway.

This paradox is simply caused by having X represent two different numbers. If you had $5 and your opponent had $10 then by switching you would gain $5, so representing your original value with X you end up with 2X. When you consider the possibility of having $10 and your opponent having $5. That's half, so you assume you end up with X/2. The problem occurs when you compare 2X to X/2 and it looks like you have an advantage switching, not realizing the X equals different values in each possibility. X equals 5 in the first and 10 in the second. If you compare like this 2(5) to (10)/2 you can see there is no advantage.

This is a brilliant video. Literally and advertisingly.