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already started declining CCR condo harder and harder to sell esp after cooling measures. anecdotally, agents are much more likely to return calls, to put it mildly. when market is hot, agents don't even return calls

Josh, can you consider plotting property price index together with singapore GDP over time? thanks

Hot money already left Singapore is mirroring 2013

Best analysis ever. Your analytical thoughts always been in my thoughts too but wasn't quite sure as peer pressure few friends of mine have recently rushed to buy a property....which makes me rush too !! I did a condo viewing yesterday and was going to put my price up but decided to hold fire after watching your video. Thanks Josh!

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

Thank you for the high praise. Share with a friend who should hear Be patient and be prudent. Wishing you best in your journey =)

@kitty2527

6 ай бұрын

Never rush into buying anything that has a huge price tag, among all the assets class (it only an asset when loans are paid off until then it remains a liability), property is not easy to offload unlike a good stock when price has risen and one wants to sell some of the stocks for some extra money. Many ppl fingers will be burnt cos everything is inflated beyond what it is worth.

Thanks for covering a hot topic. Can we say that like any other capital intensive business, real estate goes through cycles as supply is lumpy and demand isn’t. We are entering a cycle where new supply is coming up and the demand will take several years to eat through it. Plus a high interest rate regimen is likely to continue which gives investors alternatives.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Yes absolutely! 👏

Excellent sensible sharing. Quite imp not to buy into FOMO, agents paint the crazy bullish outlook

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Thank you 🙏

@contrarian2496

9 ай бұрын

Because that's the only way to sell overpriced $2K/psf at ulu locations, just look at Botany@Dairy Farm and wonder what's gone wrong with prices. People need to understand that gone are the days where majority of new launches make money, the current over extended prices does not match the weakened economic factors and when there's a mismatch in fundamentals the underlying asset prices always end up tumbling, tested and proven from every recession SG has faced.

great insightful view and analysis!

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

Thank you for the high praise

Thanks Josh ! Good insight

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

No worries. Share with someone who should hear =)

Totally agree with this too great logical analysis keep making this kind of videos

@joshconsultancy

6 ай бұрын

Thank you for the support and share with someone who should hear

Thanks Josh for the video. Would like to add on in the months ahead to next year, there will be a lot of owners who took up fixed rates in the covid that will expire. They be in for a shock with the increased mortgage cost when the new rates kick in for them. That will further push the prop price market further down. Good to time to buy then. 😅

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Yes, Ive private clients who are seeing a mortgage bigger than projected in 2021

@contrarian2496

9 ай бұрын

They are in for a shock surely, lots of overleveraged private properties are on minimum $1M loan, simple to calculate the total compounding intetests paid based on current high interest rates of 4%. If they expect rentals to offset their high mortgage repayment then I've bad news for them, rental prices also tumble during recessions when foreigners lose their jobs and went back home, during covid there was reduced supply due to labour shortage but the supply has generally been ramped up which affects both rental and property prices. Let's see then.

Just share my view (maybe right or maybe wrong): The number of jobs with reasonable pay needs to increase in ratio with population growth too. Everyone needs a means to live.

Hi Josh. In my opinion, it was a bad move to sell your hdb and put the money into reits or singapore stocks. Hdb is a more stable and less volatile asset than stocks. Unlike hdb, there is no guarantee that the reits or dividend stocks will not cut dividends in the event of financial troubles. And to make things even more uncomfortable, the transparency of stocks is significantly lower than hdb. Hdb prices are controlled by government and it is a political sensitive issue. The government neither wants hdb prices to rise too quickly nor crash. Hence, I think hdb rents are one of the most stable source of dividends an investor can get. The recent change in housing policy has added icing to the cake because new hdb at good locations will no longer be allowed to be rented out. This makes existing hdb already at good locations even more scarce and valuable. Despite the market cycle, I am definitely hanging tight to my hdb. 😂

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

REITS havent recovered in price so I cant celebrate that move yet unfortunately haha I have moves to make in the years ahead, dun worry, its a thought out move and a sacrifice needed Shared more in this "THIS HOW MY OLD HOUSE LOOKED - Explaining why I sold my HDB flat in 2023 instead of collecting rent" kzread.info/dash/bejne/gWmgtrmJc7Wpc9o.htmlsi=pRpi_p9NZ0BDA3iP

Great sharing , thanks！

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Thank you. Cya around

high prices despite cooling measures....any crash can trigger relaxing of measures too, food for thought

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

Judging from 2014-2016 where it was bear for a few years... not likely imo

@gavinyuen040680

8 ай бұрын

ahh so typical , deleting comments that counters your viewpoints@@joshconsultancy

Rental market seems strong still

What are your thoughts on hdb resale prices? Will they come down as well?

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Both private and HDB are joint at the hip. Macro factors affect both in bear and in future when it turns bull again

@wz758

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy great to hear! Hoping for hdb prices to come down to more reasonable level. It’s getting unaffordable when 3 rm resale in ulu part of Jurong west are going for close to 500k 😓

No worry, SG government is the biggest landlord in SG. So they will ensure property is always up-up all the way in the long term as wealth accumulation for SG. To do that we just need to re-open the immigration gate and welcome foreigner to join the citizenship or remove the foreigner stamp duty on property. We are still strong magnet as far as property investment is concern for foreign money inflow.

I can relate. We have been trying to sell our landed home since early April but only received 2 offers over the past 5 months. We had a lot of viewings but hardly any follow up from buyers. I should add that we were willing to sell below bank valuation (so not asking unrealistic price). I checked the listings around our neigjbourhood and found that we are not alone. Many neighbours who listed their homes have not had any success too. And we are talking about landed properties, the so-called scarciest properties in Singapore. We are also on a lookout for a replacement prop (also landed in another district) and we found similar patterns playing out. The same houses are isted for months unsold. Sure, prices have not softened much but its quite telling when buyers don't even bother to low ball. Only shows the cost of owning a prop is becoming too prohibitive.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Thank you for your sharing. Wishing you luck 🙏

@fishphage2762

9 ай бұрын

thanks for your sharing. logically, when interest rates goes down, buyers will be back. the fact that you have many viewers means that many buyers are just waiting in the sidelines. i think the only reason for property prices to fall is when sellers are forced to sell at fire sale price due to high unemployment. We are not in a recession (yet) with healthy employment.

@Maximax1091

9 ай бұрын

Did you give exclusive to your agent?

@contrarian2496

9 ай бұрын

Agreed, I'm also seeing prices decline for private properties yet they are still unable to find buyers, because prices have over extended during the past years hence often when that happens the price correction is greater. Looking at past recessions in SG, the private property properties tumbled about 20% which is expected as nobody wants to buy higher risk assets at high interest rates, during recession the property demand flows into HDB with the well located central HDB tends to benefit the most when savvy people reorganise their portfolio into more defensive assets.

@yf6601

9 ай бұрын

@Maximax1091 no but we did not use any other agents. So it's as good as exclusive.

Would just like to highlight that bank interest rates are gradually coming down. Just did a check with the bank and they are offering 3.2% fixed interest rate now, Vs the 3.6% rate that I got in June, Singaporean banks are factoring in that interest rates may fall next year. Do you think that would be a needle mover for the demand?

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

3.2% which bank? DBS raised its fixed actually. From 3.5 to 3.75 now. Viewable on website

@geraldng7258

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy that was OCBC's IPA given with a 3.2% interest rate.

@geraldng7258

8 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy by the way DBS is offering 3.3% now if you call in to reprice.

Hi , As we intend to buy condo in early 2024 ,please suggest its worth waiting for an year as a drop is expected ?

@joshconsultancy

7 ай бұрын

If its a first home dont wait there is no guarantee of up or down. if its an update ensure its prudent If its an investment property, read the market cycle well. Hope its food for thought k

A very good presentation. Only the last bit on immigration to support the property market. It is a very complex issue. It would be great if new immigrants' total fertility rate is higher than Singaporeans'. If they adopt the same procreation attitude, then we will be in BIG trouble down the road. This will result in greater tax burden for future generations in terms of health care, age care and other peripherals. Not to mention integration of the new migrants which many countries face serious problems. I have stayed in a developed country for 4 years as a PR and I experienced the issues. Nevertheless, an excellent presentation and hope those who swear by properties as an investment class would take heed of your presentation.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Thank you for the high praise 🙏

@fool1124

9 ай бұрын

No worry la, all countries are heading in the same direction. I would suggest Singapore immigration should consider immigrants from Africa to reverse ageing demographics.

@kelvincheng5901

8 ай бұрын

Agree with u immigration is a very complex issue...was just having a conversation with a friend whose kid is having Math tuition with a group of migrant kids(no prizes for guessing which group)..we are of the opinion that one day, S'pore may be taken over by this particular group becos of their hunger and intelligence

I kind of agree with you. But, there are 50% chance where US interest rate maintain and even rise , caused US green bond price drop.. It may affect the SG property price..

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

If interest cost rises even further, it will really stress the residential property markets

@marktn9851

9 ай бұрын

Even by staying at current high rates, banks can be unwilling to give out mortgages if they hv higher yield from other business.

@contrarian2496

9 ай бұрын

Banks are willing to lend at recession but due to higher risk of bad debts they will be charging higher interests, those who are on floating rate mortgage loans are at the mercy of the banks. All factors point to private property prices tumbling till end 2025.

@prefixsuffix

8 ай бұрын

Nah. It's not going to end in 2025..... It will continue to decline further All other countries are already declining, except here. So the impact will be greater.

@marktn9851

8 ай бұрын

@@prefixsuffix The delayed effects here in sgp is only due to much regulated system, historically.

Thanks for sharing.

a very good market analysis

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

Thank you for the high praise

Hi, I own a hdb. Fully paid. Can I still decouple now to buy 2nd private property?

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Hdb Cannot decouple

@jimw8615

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy thanks! If I sell away my hdb. I can buy two private with both our name individually? Thus no absd ?

problem with your charts is that it's plotting based on trends, i.e. assuming that factors remain as is. but these are affected by decisions that change on whim. the whole reason the trend happened in the first place was rising interest rates - which may well be reversed in due course - nobody knows for sure. so it's kinda pointless trying to plot. also not factoring in the recent public housing changes - HDB prime, plus, 15 month freeze preventing downgrading to resale flats - that will all push up private property prices.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Not a problem. Certainly not a crystal ball. Property cycles are slow. Once sentiment changes, it will be multi-year. I saw it in 2011 and 2017

@alui5362

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy 2011 and 2017 are all within the same period of near zero interest rates.. contrast circumstances very different now where markets are driven by the whims of the US fed reserve..

@contrarian2496

9 ай бұрын

How does the new BTO classification and 15mths waitout period boost private property prices? More likely it's weakening the private property market when buyers now think twice with the reduced mobility from the 15mths waitout period (i.e harder to cashout profit gains), also the new BTO classification will result in a reduced upgrader supply as there will be more BTO with 10 years MOP and the Standard 5 years MOP BTO is not going to provide massive profits due to lack of locational attributes, unlike the past where people can buy highly centralised BTO with 5 years MOP. When BTO profits are reduced then upgraders are not going to irrationally accept high private property prices and the ones that will be impacted the most are those faraway OCR condo that relies on BTO upgraders. On a macro level, the govt has no reason to boost private property prices, I'm not seeing any recent measures benefitting the private properties but maybe you have a different view.

@alui5362

9 ай бұрын

@@contrarian2496 yeah, basically people won't think so much lah, i.e. 'oh, if i upgrade now, if ever i want to downgrade, i will have to wait 15 mth' - people don't think so far. so the 15mth means once you upgrade, it's hard to downgrade - the direction becomes one way. the BTO classification will make the young people (esp professionals) think twice about bothering with BTO. right now a lot of people buy BTO because there's the huat/returns from a BTO - when that is no longer a consideration, they will go straight to private property. on a macro level, the govt has BIG reason to say 'ehhhh no lah, HDB housing v affordable'. they have no reason to give a shit about private property owners, especially sandwich class, who are forced out of the HDB range into the private property market.

Totally agree, property cycle at peak now

@joshconsultancy

7 ай бұрын

Data slowly emerging...

@frankauerbach

7 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy The population target in the population white paper has been reached, our population is at 5.9x million now, a ridiculous number from just a few years ago.

so when can buy?

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

I dont know yet too. Will share when I fire off in future. Stay tuned

Hurray so happy for those buyers spending millions to buy HDB Flats

Location location location!! Like it hate it, with good location you’re less worried about all these 😊

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Hmm Ive this previous video with some in good locations losing money. Sharing "I realised NOT ALL new launch condo in Singapore made BIG profits..." kzread.info/dash/bejne/nIatma2zqZnJm7g.htmlsi=sIACYk4_JBpjqrim

Hi Josh, when do you to think the property market starts to cool down in 2024

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

It’s has already started to cool. Q3 flash estimates is a few weeks time will confirm that

My friend who say one buy 2 under the advice of his property agent 2 year...just force sell one property

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Wow. He was v stretched income wise?

@whywhy4211

9 ай бұрын

Like Joshua shared FOMO n their greed might hv got better of them plus no details to what actually happened that they were force sell

@contrarian2496

9 ай бұрын

High interest rates is probably the reason, when rental no longer cover the mortgage repayment that's when they start to bleed cash, and nobody likes to be in negative cashflow situation for their investments.

Hdb resale prices will crash in 2024 and more based on all the conditions. Now with more bto and resale decay it is downward Spiral I think. Buying now is bad move. Sell is better now if not don't sell. Down seems to be the trend now.

Even if sellers can hold, is it smart to hold? I can make 3.5-4.0% for next 2-3 years while property slides 10% over next 2-3 years. That would be about 20% gain for me as opposed to buying now.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Hmm smart to hold or not fundamentally depends on the assumption of price decline. If assumption of strong decline + high interest cost, the rent will no longer make sense. This is what is spooking reit markets now

@andrewufo

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy yes indeed not just price decline but time value of money where one can get guaranteed passive income from cash. So double whammy of price decline and lost of cash income.

Money is never enough. Know what you need and not what you want. Diverse your income stream. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. (Everyone knows but not everyone has the discipline to follow). To me, I would rather invest in equities after I have a roof over my head. Much more hard work analysing the stock market, but at least I don't jeopardise the next generation by flipping properties.

I've been on property guru on the hunt for a newly mop private condo in the OCR since June. I don't see anyone lowering their prices. In fact every new unit listed the price keep going up. What's happening?

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Sentiment turns slow. Hence the explanation part on when investors get jaded and finally cut prices/// Takes a few years perhaps?

@user-vh8gf5ng9k

9 ай бұрын

Your video need to Reach these sellers so they can lower their prices and I can buy in lower 😅

@angmatthew

9 ай бұрын

The land costs are so high. The new launches have to price higher to make profits. >2000 psf for OCR will become the new norm now

@jamesl2590

9 ай бұрын

"Cartel" pricing in a way i guess? If they price it at a loss, they have to book that loss in P&L. With that precedence and for consistency reasons, the others in their portfolio have to devalue as well. Might have rippling effect across the industry.

@contrarian2496

9 ай бұрын

Because property price trends are slow to change but when the trend starts it often takes years to reverse it, unlike stocks which reacts to economic factors almost instantaneously. Currently private property price index has just started to decline for 2 consecutive months hence it may seem that there's not much changes, therefore if people are looking for the lowest prices then it's at the end of the property downtrend meaning nearer to the next inflection point, therefore give it time when private property index is down for 24 consecutive months that's when you know prices are probably near to its bottom, much like the 24 months property index increase marked the peak of the market, hence I feel for those who bought faraway ulu new launches at $2K/psf an example being Botany@Dairy Farm.

In a normal supply and demand market, when demand drop, prices will drop. But for Singapore property market, the several rounds of government intervention and taxes resulted in volume dropping, and prices continue to increase. This phenomenal is normal in government intervened market. Investors who own multiple properties now will not sell, as it will be difficult for them to return to the market with all the taxes. With the reduction in supply, and still continuing home based demand, prices continue to rise. That is what is happening now.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Volume actually surged in 2021 and 202 from the charts presented

@vincenttravelsg

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy that was before the many rounds of government intervention from Dec 2021. ABSD 20% from 12%, foreigners ABSD 60% from 20%, BSD increase, 15 months wait out after selling private properties, etc.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

60% absd affects foreigners. Data shows thats 4% or so of the segment only. Singaporeans are the drivers of the prices As for ABSD locals, Im on the ground. Its very rare someone local is paying even 15% previous absd. It has always been decoupling. The decline coming is likelier imo due to interest rates and LTV reduction in HDB which is the starting segment of our market. Cya around

what about rental?

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Rental supply coming big is 2023 with multiple projects TOP

From the ground, probably will slow down abit and price might get corrected but everyone around me is still buying or looking to buy another property. As long as the price falls back to the right price, people will start buying and push the demand back.

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

Noted. Ive described the difference in phase 3

That’s the reason why I decided not to apply for BTO after discussion with my wife. We both agreed that we will most likely see housing price decline in the next few years. Hence, those who buy BTO now might be looking to sell in the next few years turns into resale. Which could be a better value. I might be wrong, but I am willing to bet that in the next few years housing will be at a better value compared to now. Either way, I am not in a rush to own a property, so I am better off waiting for a good deal. 😌

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

BTO has almost always gained. Even buying during a market cycle peak. If it’s for home never mind k. It’s roof over head and for family life :)

@soonglinhao

9 ай бұрын

Good luck waiting.

@gabrielchan4420

9 ай бұрын

BTO is not correlated to market forces, like resale or private. BTO is subsidized and largely controlled by the govt due to its restrictions. Shouldn't you quickly get one before you exceed the combined income ceiling and the new classification? If you able to get a good queue number, you might able to get a flat with good location with 5 year MOP (instead of 10).

@leeaaron7856

9 ай бұрын

Historically, bto prices are the cheapest on a psf basis and no other residential properties can match them in terms of value. If you can, get a bto 1st as a stepping stone to your property journey. My recommendation, get a standard bto, avoid a plus or prime so that you can sell it after 5 years.

@andrewufo

9 ай бұрын

You are right in terms of resale market, but BTO is different as it is cheap and subsidized.

is it the right time to upgrade? or shall wait for one more year?

@user-vh8gf5ng9k

9 ай бұрын

Im thinking the same thing too. But ain't it the same if we were to sell low, and buy low? While it's sell high, buy high now. Same same right? 😂

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

I dont have a crystal ball. Hopefully some points raised is worthy of further thought k =)

everywhere else in the world property prices are tumbling. In China, the tumble is big big big time. Optimists in Spore will always insist that Singapore is unique. Just how unique can a tiny country with a tiny market be ? It is a fallacy to think like that esp when we are a very open economy.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

True as of now. China's oversupply is different from our's though. We will rebound at some years later Id guess

@fool1124

9 ай бұрын

China real estate has been going up 10X in last 20 years.

@Nerosink2000

9 ай бұрын

Exactly state media and agents and rich landowners are all in cahoots to keep the gravy train going

@gabrielchan4420

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy Singapore housing price will fall or correct, but not tumbled. With TDSR and other rules in place, Govt had stem off speculative buying. Most Singaporeans are not heavily leveraged and have high holding power. If need to, Govt have many tools including loosening of stamp duty, to stipulate demand. The next GE is coming in 2025, they are not going to allow property prices to fall significantly.

@angmatthew

9 ай бұрын

Our land supply and HDB BTOs are tightly controlled by the government. It is not accurate to compare Singapore to China property market situation. Moreover like what Josh mentioned, buyers have to follow TSDR and other rules which they already have the financial means to buy and hold. The only factor which I think may caused a crash is massive loss of jobs.

Price plateau instead of price drop. Price only drop when demand dries. Demand is still strong.

@joshconsultancy

6 ай бұрын

Demand is better reflected in volume. And it is falling

@hummit

6 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy Time will tell. Nov Dec is time when Singaporeans go travelling - small reduction in volume doesn't allude to falling market. Fed already paused interest rate hikes and going into 2024 may reduce interest rates. Interest rates coming down will move property markets. Buy property to wait and not wait to buy property. J'den launch day sales of 70% just tells you that many are snapping up good properties right now.

A lot of agents showing me discount pricing lately. 😅😅😅

@joshconsultancy

2 ай бұрын

Which projects?

Particularly in sgp, there’s actually no real solid demand in private since everybody can go for BTO or resale hdbs, much bigger n cheaper quality housing, esp in a high-interest environment.

@angmatthew

9 ай бұрын

I beg to differ. Most of my peers are holding to at least 1hdb + 1 private property (or more).Most couples (dual incomes) have already paid off their hdb within 7-10 years if they have chosen the BTO route.

Reit prices are crashing already due to high refinancing rate, and poor economic outlook. Property price should come down soon too.

@angmatthew

9 ай бұрын

Reits are different animal compared to private properties & HDBs. Reits manager have to pay out 90% of their income to unit holders. This structure has always caused them to have "cash flow" issues in high interest environment or sudden drop in their portfolio valuations as they do not have "reserves" to weather through the tough period. Many Singaporeans are flushed with CPF which they can serviced their mortgages for years even they lose their jobs (as long as they buy within their means).

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

REITS have long declined. Residential property has been slow to react and i fear is going there

I absolutely agree with you. Most agents still pushing to say the property prices will continue to skyrocket.

@hgft274

9 ай бұрын

Got one constantly making youtube videos listing for unrealistic prices...actually doing more harm to the sellers by setting unrealistic expectations for them and eventually causing them to miss the boat. We all know which property group that is ;)

@jlin995

9 ай бұрын

@@hgft274 Also known for taking above market rate commissions right?

Backed with logical analysis. Let's observe if your assessment of price decline will materialise in 2024.

@joshconsultancy

7 ай бұрын

Sure :) smash the subs and cya around

Property prices are rising in August

I still think it is a wait and see game in 2023-24. I don't think u factor the full employment in Singapore and the fact that cars as a luxury item in Singapore, COE is still at a record $100+k. I still think Singaporeans are flushed with cash waiting for the right opportunity to enter. With so much new launches perhaps just looking at resale private about 10k properties per yr is less than half of the data. Reserve Residences and Grand Duman still shows demand is there. When unemployment goes to 5%& above + COE at $30k or less, i think these will trigger more falls in the property market.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

I researched into data, Launches in 2013 were v hot then. It wasn’t cold at the peak

@bkoh1771

9 ай бұрын

@joshconsultancy yeah so sideways for 2023-24. Up or down but +-3% thereabouts. I think that's most people predictions. Cautious is the word but not fear. Unless you see drastic worsening of economic conditions. I don't think Singapore can equate to China & JB properties as well. Their slumps are different. Vast land internal economies etc.

Property prices are unlikely to moderate very much if most sellers can afford to hold on to their properties. Guess the only meaningful price correction will only come when spore enters into prolonged high interest environment & some owners who are over leveraged would need to offload their properties. The market is still not pricing in the long gone zero interest & easy money days. Many of the EC buyers, who are HDB upgraders, are perhaps over leveraged & most assumed their properties will appreciate when their MOP is up. Its a risky view especially when the economy tanks & unemployment creeps up.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Interest cost yes changes the dynamic of the property investment. It takes awhile for the property cycle to turn

@lizhong0619

9 ай бұрын

How can EC buyers be over leveraged? They're constrained by MSR.

Feels like I’m playing NFT. Just bought a new launch, hoping the next sucker gonna buy my unit when I sell😅 I’m the not so smart money 😂😂😂

Don't forget there is this 10 mil population white paper. This played a critical role for the demand and

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

That is phase 1 demand but 10m is a v far future

@jamesl2590

9 ай бұрын

Haha..that's if Singaporean continue to show strong support for the ruling party. Looking at the voting performance in the last GE, how would the govt have the appetite to float the 10 mil idea? The current govt won't have an easy time balancing this. You also have some strong voices in the opposition parties proposing policies that could potentially crash the market. Aging Singaporean population? Lots of uncertainty man.

@contrarian2496

9 ай бұрын

10M population is a political issue, such that the govt had to come out to deny the 10M population plan, it's already so crowded at current population majority of voters is not going to accept a near doubling of population. So if the only way to boost property prices is by inflating population then good luck to the govt of the future when population exceeds a certain number.

I think sentiments play a huge factor in the housing market. And just anecdotally from my own experience and looking at the comments section. There is stilll a large group of people waiting on the sidelines, which makes a correction in the short term unlikely.

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

oh when its a bull market, everyone imagines jumping in when price comes down. When it really comes down, instead of jumping in they run away

@hisamjan7842

6 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy agree. Average Singaporean do not know market cycle they follow this concept monkey see monkey do jus like during c pandemic everyone started hording worthless toilet paper because they jus follow others.

Actually find Homeseller better.. $1999 only

Luckily you do not have the "ooo" "laaa" "aaahhh" of other SIngapore youtubers, which is annoying to listen to

Noooooo~

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

You just bought? 😮

@eightfoldsg

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy Yup, completion was mid aug

@sgboon

9 ай бұрын

​@@eightfoldsgAffinty?

@eightfoldsg

9 ай бұрын

@@sgboon Oh not Affinity, i got a resale in OCR D28

die loh... I have to sell my four-room flat end of next year with my BTO collecting keys.😰😥😢...

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

It is abit harder to sell now as compared to 1y ago.

@ClementLee2000

9 ай бұрын

Imagine just 500 other people in your same situation, urgent to sell because new BTO is ready. I feel that best time is about 2yrs before BTO collection. But very troublesome as you need to move twice. To me moving house is stressful.

I guess I should hold off buying a second property. Perhaps look for bargains when the markets corrects a little. Looking out for an updated video then!

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Not a crystal ball but I think me not buying with own money is an indication where my vote is =)

cheap house where?

Hahaha stagnant maybe. Fall, no

The big ticking time bomb is the 99 year lease for majority of housing. People put in alot of money into the home and it goes to 0 once 99 years is up.

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

Usually we can’t comprehend times lines too long. Many commercial buildings have less than 60y lease anyway

A great depression is coming. Those greedy sellers still asking for a ridiculous price to the moon shall wait long long. While sg economy is strong but when the 2 giant countries are down, we sure couldn't avoid.

It is a waste of time trying to analyse the property market. Just focus on when the General Election is. The next one is GE2025, you can be sure THIS PAP GOVERNMENT will act as angels with kind and understanding heart to correct the property market and COE market.

The more Chinese money laundering rackets are being uncovered, the faster the property market could slow down. In fact, the latest scandal itself may slow down the property market as hot money from overseas tends to be poured into the property market. My conspiracy theory....

@joshconsultancy

8 ай бұрын

The amount of foreigner buying has been low for the last 10y. It has been local demand driven from data

Can guess who r the delusional property agents from the comments 🤣

@pandorabox9894

8 ай бұрын

Who please?😊

Your story about how your asking is lower and your neighbour lowers the asking might be slightly more dramatic. Now might be quite different 2013 because most are buying for own stay. The reasons why someone (owner occupied) would lower their price is because 1) they just bought another place and need to sell current home urgently. 2) they really face mortgage issues, but then again, if they sell now at a loss, are they downgrading to a smaller condo? Or renting some place? I think the price might soften, but if really having huge losses, owner can just continue to stay?

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

May not be in losses. Some owners have stayed there for 30years and the property has rode a few cycles. Their stance softens. Ive really seen it in this home that I bought. And also in my previous place where I had to endure 6y of paper loss on value when neighbours sold way lower than I bought kzread.info/dash/bejne/fmt7u6Sqnr3Mn7A.htmlsi=sD9b3s31_7ugVd29

Your thesis is not clear, your charts and figures are only reflect the market trends , but not the why. In singapore since 2011 , stabilizing property price is from the measures of MAS. Compare year on year for 2022 and 2023 in Q2 is somewhat not fair as the measures came in 2022 sept for LTV, absd for 2nd property and 60% of absd kicked in april 2023 and supercharge high interest rates from 1.2% to around 4% within 2 years. so year on year comparison is invalid as the delay effects kick in

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Hdb measures? I presented private resale chart Hmm, So what would be the why? 😉

@SWTAN-JEFFREY

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy I mean MAS measures

@SWTAN-JEFFREY

9 ай бұрын

@@joshconsultancy I added in main comment again

@joshconsultancy

9 ай бұрын

Hmm I dont think i agree. 60% absd affects foreigners. Data shows thats 4% or so of the segment only. Singaporeans are the drivers of the prices The decline coming is likelier imo due to interest rates and LTV reduction in HDB which is the starting segment of our market. It's ok to disagree, lets move on

@christyhilton1919

9 ай бұрын

Those 104 properties bought by the 10 + money launders have contributed massive increase in prices Rapacious property agents help them purchase at any inflated prices to hide these money. People are mislead to think our economy are doing very well. Fortunately, those homes are confiscated by our government now. Hopefully, the market will gradually react normally. People don't buy due to FOMO.

When Singapore is .. sinking ..maybe you will sell your condo for a dollar ...next time

@pandorabox9894

8 ай бұрын

Will it happen?😊

@tanjem

8 ай бұрын

@@pandorabox9894 PAP will sell first and kept quiet while suckers load and died ..