Russia’s War on Ukraine: View from Moscow with Amb. John Sullivan | Battlegrounds w/ H.R. McMaster

In this episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and Ambassador John Sullivan discuss Russia's aggression, its impact on the US and NATO, and the future of Ukraine on Wednesday, July 12, 2023.
Reflecting on Russia’s history of aggression and Putin’s imperial ambitions, former US ambassador to Russia John Sullivan joins Hoover senior fellow H.R. McMaster to discuss the 2022 reinvasion of Ukraine and its impact on the US and NATO. Drawing on his experience under the Biden administration in the lead-up to the reinvasion, Ambassador Sullivan assesses the current state of the war, its historical similarities with Hitler’s invasion of Poland in 1939, the uncertain future facing Putin, and how the war in Ukraine may come to an end.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Ambassador John J. Sullivan served as US ambassador to Russia from December 2019 to October 2022 under presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden. During his tenure, he led the US embassy in Moscow through Russia’s 2022 reinvasion of Ukraine. Sullivan completed his law degree at Columbia University and has held senior positions in the Departments of Justice, Defense, and Commerce from the George W. Bush to Obama administrations. He served as deputy secretary of commerce from 2008 to 2009 and chaired the US-Iraq Business Dialogue from 2010 to 2016. Sullivan served as deputy secretary of state from 2017 to 2019. He is a distinguished fellow of the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Sullivan is currently a partner in Mayer Brown’s Washington, DC, and New York offices.
H.R. McMaster is the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is also the Bernard and Susan Liautaud Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and lecturer at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. He was the 25th assistant to the president for National Security Affairs. Upon graduation from the United States Military Academy in 1984, McMaster served as a commissioned officer in the United States Army for thirty-four years before retiring as a Lieutenant General in June 2018.
ABOUT THE SERIES
Battlegrounds provides a needed forum with leaders from key countries to share their assessment of problem sets and opportunities that have implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security strategy. Each episode features H.R. McMaster in a one-on-one conversation with a senior foreign government leader to allow Americans and partners abroad to understand how the past produced the present and how we might work together to secure a peaceful and prosperous future. “Listening and learning from those who have deep knowledge of our most crucial challenges is the first step in crafting the policies we need to secure peace and prosperity for future generations.”
For more information, visit: www.hoover.org/battlegrounds_....
Pick up a copy of "Battlegrounds: The Fight To Defend The Free World," by H.R. McMaster here - www.hoover.org/research/battl....
0:00 Introduction
3:08 Sullivan’s Perspective
7:51 Whose Fault is it?
15:08 Run up to the War
24:33 Why did Putin think he could get away?
35:03 Ukraine and Russia War: Assessment + Future + Prospects
42:51 Course of the war
48:04 Alternative Future for Russia
54:36 Lessons from the Re-invasion in Ukraine

Пікірлер: 311

  • @moxnix1026
    @moxnix102610 ай бұрын

    My father was an Air Force Colonel fighter pilot. He faded away 30 years ago. I really miss the highly intelligent and informative discussions with him very much. Listening to you guys is like home.

  • @StreetGang2017
    @StreetGang201710 ай бұрын

    I remember that "Babushka"video very well.The pluck on this brave lady made me think that Ukraine was not going to roll over and were a brave and noble country that deserved help from all the good people of this planet.I still feel this way and try to help them in any way I can. Slava Ukraine!

  • @ChipHead0110
    @ChipHead011010 ай бұрын

    Loving every second of this. Sullivan is great, and McMaster too, as always. I was there, like Sullivan, albeit in Ukraine. My fallacies were: "it's just a sabre rattling" - and I overestimated the ruzzians. Apart from that, Sullivan and I see completely eye to eye.

  • @nealljones
    @nealljones10 ай бұрын

    Terrific insights. Appreciate all HR and his friends share with us. I lived in Hungary in the 1990s and know a little of what happened to the Hungarians in 1956.

  • @vaasdaas9587

    @vaasdaas9587

    10 ай бұрын

    Rather terrifying how onesided and full of lies it is.

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    ​@@vaasdaas9587 Ain't no lies in this video. The truth about WW2 was one sided as well.

  • @peterhumphrys
    @peterhumphrys10 ай бұрын

    enjoyed the discussion, l largely agree. especially on the notion that Putin will not withdraw willingly, he will only obey the language of force, not diplomacy! And I fear that Putin is very willing, likely determined, to fight to the last Russian conscript.

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    Is it not possible for the West to bog Russia down in a forever war? Right now it looks like the frontlines are barely moving anyway, on either side.

  • @MFJoneser
    @MFJoneser10 ай бұрын

    Thank you for bringing us in to listen to this remarkable discussion

  • @adelatorremothelet
    @adelatorremothelet10 ай бұрын

    How strange .... not a single mention of the minsk agreements. And no mention of the secretary of defense declarations on how this war was supposed to erode Russian military power. Even from an academic viewpoint, these declarations have to be analyzed because they have an impact on Russia's attitude towards the West. If the initial goal was to preserve Ukrainian territorial integrity, that single declaration shifted how Russia wages war and what guarantees it will ask to stop its aggression.

  • @lembergnative7731

    @lembergnative7731

    10 ай бұрын

    you mean the minsk agreements that happened in the first place BECAUSE RUSSIA FUCKING INVADED UKRAINE IN 2014??? those minsk agreements? The ones that Russia violated? Oh, STFU already.

  • @LLlap

    @LLlap

    10 ай бұрын

    And they didn't mention the UFOs and biolabs!

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    The minsk agreements were dead on arrival because Russia continued its illegal presence in Eastern Ukraine. Secretary of defense did not state "this war was supposed to erode Russian military power" but rather that we will use the war Russia started to erode Russian military (so they think long and hard before engaging in expansionist behavior again). ie. Russia will be made to pay a price for its revanchist behavior. Way to mischaracterize SecDef Austin's statements.

  • @frankshifreen
    @frankshifreen10 ай бұрын

    Great episode brilliant John Sullivan and HR

  • @imccom
    @imccom10 ай бұрын

    Does the US military or NATO officials believe that Ukraine can secure Crimea without air support? What does the US believe they can achieve with the amount of military equipment currently commited?

  • @tocu9808

    @tocu9808

    10 ай бұрын

    Simple answer. Ukrainians would die in hundreds of thousands in order to get Crimea. American lives are too precious to be expended that many.

  • @rafaelsanz3441

    @rafaelsanz3441

    10 ай бұрын

    The Jewish lobby doesn't want a Russian defeat as the olygarchs have Israel's passports and are laundering allvthe money they steal in Israel. Israel decides the USA foreign policy.

  • @fitzmcfitzy4340

    @fitzmcfitzy4340

    10 ай бұрын

    I think that Ukraine will have to leave that until next year, their pilots won't be ready until next spring.

  • @Oblitus1

    @Oblitus1

    10 ай бұрын

    Well, isn't that the elephant hiding in plain sight, imccom? I strongly suspect leaders know the answer to that question, but naturally refuse to answer, at least publicly. It pains me greatly to say this, but I'll say it again: this war will remain stalemated for as long as the West denies Ukraine access to a legitimate third-dimensional capability.

  • @andrewjames8980

    @andrewjames8980

    10 ай бұрын

    US/NATO just wants Ukraine to bleed Russia enough to enact regime change. Biden said as much. That is never going to happen. Russia has 10x manpower at this point, and 5x equipment, not to mention the radioactive weapons.

  • @Martin-qm2lg
    @Martin-qm2lg10 ай бұрын

    this guy just doesn't stop talking.

  • @peterbrooke1137
    @peterbrooke113710 ай бұрын

    Amazing the bone spur kid had some good people. It's a pity he did not listen to them.

  • @andrewackerley9985
    @andrewackerley998510 ай бұрын

    We need more ambassadors like Mr Sullivan.

  • @letdaseinlive

    @letdaseinlive

    10 ай бұрын

    He helped start the war. You're insane.

  • @clancywiggam

    @clancywiggam

    10 ай бұрын

    @@letdaseinlive No, Putin started the war, Putin and his KGB pals, nobody else.

  • @vaasdaas9587

    @vaasdaas9587

    10 ай бұрын

    ​@@letdaseinliveexactly, he is just a mouth piece for the MIC.

  • @dwl3006

    @dwl3006

    10 ай бұрын

    @@vaasdaas9587 Chazz Freedman is a brilliant ambassador. Light and day compared to this guy.

  • @irresponsiblyblue1411

    @irresponsiblyblue1411

    10 ай бұрын

    @@letdaseinlive Haha, oh my. Take your goddamned meds. Then again, I suppose it would interfere with your next slurred and poorly conveyed bit of sophistry.

  • @Lizardo451
    @Lizardo45110 ай бұрын

    Read Stalin's causis beli for invading Poland, it's pretty much the same as Putin's for invading Ukraine.

  • @JameBlack

    @JameBlack

    10 ай бұрын

    yep, pure imperialism

  • @michaelharvey75

    @michaelharvey75

    10 ай бұрын

    'pretty much' indicates that there are differences. . What would be the biggest difference ? .

  • @MoonBerryShrimp

    @MoonBerryShrimp

    10 ай бұрын

    tl;dr: "I want it gimme gimme gimme"

  • @kevinjenner9502

    @kevinjenner9502

    10 ай бұрын

    In a similar vein, the Downing Street Memos, and the cooking of facts and Intel, to support a predetermined decision to invade Iraq.

  • @clancywiggam

    @clancywiggam

    10 ай бұрын

    @@michaelharvey75 Stalin succeeded.

  • @markb8468
    @markb846810 ай бұрын

    That was excellent! The way he summed up the solution to these problems is spot on!

  • @SafeSpaceCafe
    @SafeSpaceCafe10 ай бұрын

    Informative as hallways, Thank Ya J.R & Friends...

  • @chuckcaswell2472
    @chuckcaswell247210 ай бұрын

    Absolutely brilliant. HR, an amazing interview, you tee up probative questions and then allow the thoroughly knowledgeable and humble Ambassador the space to respond and support difficult Realpolitik conclusions and their domestic and global implications. There are at least 10 topics introduced here that the Goodfellas could further unpack. Hope you and the guys consider investing a podcast or two in the endeavor.

  • @RobertReg1
    @RobertReg110 ай бұрын

    Good talk

  • @considerthis7712
    @considerthis771210 ай бұрын

    Truth and balanced assessment? 1. Losses. ‘Massive losses’ of Russian military. No comments of Ukraine losses, including casualties of troops and civilians, arms and civil constructions, including those destroyed by Ukraine. 2. Deterrence. First, Nothing would have prevented 2022 invasion? US and UK pushed Ukraine giving up Nukes in 1994 Budapest Memorandum in return for security from Russian nuclear use against them, NOT conventional war! Second lack of action after Georgia 2008 then Ukraine 2014., Donbas and Crimea. Very Weak sanctions. Russians undeterred. Third. Major NATO counties allowed to underspend on 2% GDP military expenditure requirements. Largest was Germany; only half! 3. Justification. US continually expanding NATO, then attempt to do so mentioned from 2007, but denied by Germany and France. US CIA supports Ukraine 2014 uprising in Kyiv. US , UK rearming and training Ukraine from 2014. Europe , especially German huge expansion in buying Russian fuel funds Russian military growth. US complains to Germany ,but nothing comes of it. It’s true Putin and his right wing wanted larger Federation around his borders. Ignoring Putin, India and China still supports Russia economically. 4. Why did Putin think he could get away with it? He has not lost yet. What is lost when Putin has no care for Russian casualties? US back downs in Afghanistan , as did in many other foreign ventures, non action in 2008 and 2014, attitude of Trump and GOP. Financial crisis , covid , Jan 6 issues, western deficits while Russia earning huge reserves from energy sales to enemy NATO countries. Freeze out Europe.. 2023 /24 could be more severe. Putin under calculated Ukraine ability and Western support and over estimated Russian military incompetence to win over Ukraine with small invasion force. With Shock! Invasion did shock the West. Only one month before was it considered likely. Little or no Ukraine airforce and navy. US focus on China, not Russia. 5. Future. Putin win or die.. he is 71 he only cares about

  • @jiminverness
    @jiminverness10 ай бұрын

    24:00 "_He's bluffing"_ By Feb 2022 only the blind could think he was bluffing. So many troops and everything can only sit and wait there for so long before they either have to attack or begin standing down. It's incredibly difficult to keep a huge invasion force maintained and supplied and ready for action for any length of time after assembly.

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    Many people including most Ukrainians believed Putin was using as negotiating leverage.

  • @stooge389
    @stooge38910 ай бұрын

    It's hard to convince people of what you can just SENSE is going to happen. If you told people in the summer of 1939 that the biggest war in history was about to start, some might have believed you, others would've waved you off that you were warmongering. The fact that despite being warned by just about everyone that could possibly have warned him, Stalin STILL was trying not to provoke the Gemans in late July of 1941, pretty much tells you what you need to know, I think.

  • @Probez44
    @Probez4410 ай бұрын

    Thank you HR for your work!

  • @realRainz
    @realRainz10 ай бұрын

    It shows how incompetent US Gov. mindset was, while I, a simple guy, knew how to deter russians from attacking Ukraine, and more.

  • @briancase6180
    @briancase618010 ай бұрын

    I feel these are wise words: the only way this war ends is with complete defeat of Russia, and it will be necessary to destroy their ability to make war. I agree with everything said here about Putin's motivations and his perspective. Thanks for this great interview.

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    That would take over a trillion dollars to achieve.

  • @kalinamarinova9339
    @kalinamarinova933910 ай бұрын

    Very good analysis!, thank you

  • @andrewjames8980
    @andrewjames898010 ай бұрын

    Are these guys the same geniuses who lost Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc? Strategic masterminds these guys are let me tell you.

  • @reggienoble3195
    @reggienoble319510 ай бұрын

    Entire conversation is 100% spot on. Agree wholeheartedly. Great conversation!

  • @jessiejb4684

    @jessiejb4684

    10 ай бұрын

    It’s literally all bs. It’s sad really. Tragic.

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    ​@@jessiejb4684 You sound upset Ivan. Your boys failed to reach Kyiv.

  • @martindice5424
    @martindice542410 ай бұрын

    Even if the phoney history of Ukraine is that it has ‘always been a part of Russia’ was true (it isn’t) but - this is not the point. The point is that Ukraine is a sovereign nation recognise by the UN. Any attack upon Ukraine is ipso facto illegal under international law. That is the point.

  • @kevinjenner9502

    @kevinjenner9502

    10 ай бұрын

    “The invasion of Iraq was neither in self defense against armed attack, nor sanctioned by the UN Security Council authorizing the use of force by member states and thus constituted the Crime of War of Aggression” (International Commission of Jurists Geneva)…The US invasion of Iraq was declared illegal by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on Sept 15, 2004.

  • @imperator791

    @imperator791

    10 ай бұрын

    ​@@kevinjenner9502That's why I have no sympathy for the West & 🇺🇦 from 🇮🇳 Full support to the Kremlin & Tsar Putin against the Collective West

  • @wlhjr77

    @wlhjr77

    10 ай бұрын

    @@imperator791 reported for promoting terrorism

  • @wlhjr77

    @wlhjr77

    10 ай бұрын

    @@kevinjenner9502 what does this garbage have to do with Ukraine?? is this the best trolling you can do?

  • @imperator791

    @imperator791

    10 ай бұрын

    @@wlhjr77 😂😂🤣

  • @Stand-With-Ukraine
    @Stand-With-Ukraine10 ай бұрын

    As a russian-speaking Ukrainian, I often see how politicians in the west overestimate russia and underestimate Ukraine. I'm pleasantly surprised that Mr. Sullivan admitted that he was guilty of that too and that he realizes how deeply rotten ruZZia is and that the only way to peace is a proper Ukrainian victory. I hope more politicians will think with their brains and not with their pockets.

  • @tocu9808

    @tocu9808

    10 ай бұрын

    And act with their guts !

  • @Aussie-Mocha

    @Aussie-Mocha

    10 ай бұрын

    It’s unbelievable that things have escalated to this point. Strongly respect and support Ukraine to have nothing other then a military victory all the way to the KERCH bridge. ✊🏻🇺🇦🇺🇦👏🏻🍻🇦🇺🤗 Slava Ukraini

  • @allydea

    @allydea

    10 ай бұрын

    I hope you reach the front soon, so that you may realize your beliefs and help with the "proper Ukrainian victory."

  • @adelatorremothelet

    @adelatorremothelet

    10 ай бұрын

    Loyd Austin declared that the main goal of this war was to weaken Russia. Even if this wasn't an existential conflict when the invasion started, those declarations have turned this war into an existential threat for Russia. They will not stop and continue to escalate as the conflict continues... I really don't see how this ends in a good way for any of both of the countries involved.

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    ​​@@adelatorremotheletRussia were warned multiple times prior to launching their invasion. The fact that they now consider themselves in an existential conflict, is a self ignited one.

  • @CurtDodds
    @CurtDodds10 ай бұрын

    Why was the Budapest Memorandum not adhered to by the UK and US? I never hear anyone talk about this. It would have deflated Putin's NATO rhetoric.I believe a non-NATO/EU "Five Eyes" boots on the ground deployment to the border in late 2021 citing Budapest border guarantees would have deterred the invasion by Russia. Was this even considered?

  • @HoboHabilis
    @HoboHabilis10 ай бұрын

    Thank you.

  • @puggmahone8246
    @puggmahone824610 ай бұрын

    I am your neighbour to the North, I doubt anyone knows you better. I would like to comment on John's conclusion on how Americans (paraphrasing) "Don't listen, and fail to understand others because they don't bother spending time to do so because they are self absorbed." This is the first time I have ever heard anyone say such a thing, even HR, as educated and insightful as he is has stated this, not even Victor Davis Hanson, at least as far as I know. I love to watch and educate myself from the wealth of knowledge the institute provides, but this is always the most common observation from non-Americans. Its your blind spot and likely Achilles heal.

  • @mityabor
    @mityabor10 ай бұрын

    Weakness provokes Putin, that's certainly true. Georgia 2008 was like probing the reaction and reset made the Impression that he can get away with minor incursions. After 2014 and relatively small sanctions he saw it as proof of weakness or limited will to oppose. Then in Syria, he was doing horrific bombardments of Allepo. So while his experience told him and his cronies that West in general is weak and he can do anything. Now his gamble seems to wait for Trump in White House(essentially rephrasing the Russian phrase wait for good weather near the sea).

  • @titaniumskunkogkush4365

    @titaniumskunkogkush4365

    10 ай бұрын

    What do you think about strong countries bombing defenseless countries?

  • @tadeuszczernia5422

    @tadeuszczernia5422

    10 ай бұрын

    Putin is not waiting for Trump , he waited for current idiot in charge to start the war.

  • @stanspb763

    @stanspb763

    10 ай бұрын

    The western press convinced Americans that Russia attacked Georgia because they knew no one even knew George was not just a southern state. Read the EU commission report after their investigation to cut through all the NeoCon propaganda and found in their conclusion that as Guarantor of the treaty between South Ossetia Russia had to move in to stop the unprovoked attack with the just delivered weapons from the US which also moved their trainers and commander just off shore the morning of the Georgian bombardment, that is still called McCain's War as the main person that pushed the US to create the conflict by murdering 21 legal UN mandated Russian peace-keepers. After the attack started Russia tried to convene the UNSC but the US and UK vetoed it. So Russia had no choice but to stop the attack. They did and pulled out on the 6th day. So even the EU Commission said the fault was entirely rented on Georgia. But the myth remains as you have proven. Facts just do not matter. The same people are writing the claims that Russia was unprovoked in entering the region of the LPR, which had declared independence from the US coup installed Nazis into almost every agency and departments of the government. They were not a majority but each was aggressive and violent enough to control the entire government but the over all control was the US Embassy under Biden. The Ukraine government had always been very corrupt and Biden fit right in. The war started almost right away, since the people of the Donbas rebelled against the new anti-Russian language, culture and violent suppressing of all their rights and declared loyalty to the only elected government. 10s of thousands of ethnic Russians who had lived there 300 years before the 20th century annexation of Russian lands east and south of the Dnieper River, which had made the tiny Kiev city state into large country, increasing Kiev city-state land mass 650% and giving the land locked Kiev their first access to the coast and historically Russian cities such as Odessa. The violence against the majority Russian people, and minority Tartar people who had been there thousands of years was unique in modern era. The war started 8 years before the people of the US were told Russia invaded as march to take over Europe. Every word printed or uttered in the west has been a lie, just like Syria, Libya, Vietnam, Iraq and so many other myths. The Neocon goal from the start was to destroy Russia to gain control of its resources, a mission that came very close to working in the 1990s when the US controlled most of the Yeltsin government with embedded American "advisors". All this was obvious to all of us who were there at the time but nothing that was true was reported in the west. The hatred of Putin rose when he started cleaning up the government tackling the corruption that Washington has installed early on. The impact on the economy was felt right away and steadily improved the quality of life of the people since 1999. Losing control of Russia's vast resources made Putin the most reviled person in the world according to Washington. The media campaign to paint the great reformer as a power hungry thug started very early, and his effective stamping out of corruption was labeled as corruption and wild stories were a constant feature of news in the west and foreign owned press in Russia. Yet, still, after 24 years, no evidence supports the claims.

  • @jessiejb4684

    @jessiejb4684

    10 ай бұрын

    Georgia bombed the hell out of the civilians in South Ossetia and killed many Russian peacekeepers, there under the authority of the UN. Russia pushed back Georgia’s military and returned to Russia within a few days. In Syria the CIA was arming ‘moderate rebels’ aka al-Qaeda and isis who were about to take over the country until the gov of Syria requested Russia’s help. The people of Syria are thankful for russias help, obviously not wanting to live under authority of head chopping terrorists. U.s. military still occupies 1/3rd of Syria, the resource rich regions, stealing the countries oil and occupying agricultural region, while occasionally dropping bombs on the country. Please inform yourself. I understand how easy it is to take what you hear as fact but unfortunately and tragically, our media and politicians lie.

  • @adelatorremothelet

    @adelatorremothelet

    10 ай бұрын

    The way I see it is that he has been asserting its right to have a secure perimeter. Georgia was invaded because it voiced its intentions to join NATO. On the other hand The US has been stating the opposite: Russia is not a great power and hence has no right to a secure perimeter. The conflict will last until these opposing viewpoints are reconciled.

  • @peterschief9778
    @peterschief977810 ай бұрын

    Gr8 session thanx from Australia

  • @WagesOfDestruction
    @WagesOfDestruction10 ай бұрын

    One observation the ambassador said that I can relate to is as an Australian, we know much about US news and policies.

  • @markosf09
    @markosf0910 ай бұрын

    The best thing about the Biden Administration? Makes Jimmy Carter looks like a strongman

  • @crimeajewel
    @crimeajewel10 ай бұрын

    The Red Army was lots more nationalities than just Russia. They were just one of several countries in that army. 😊

  • @christianleblanc2842
    @christianleblanc284210 ай бұрын

    Brisk and informative.

  • @user-ji2on8eg3l
    @user-ji2on8eg3l10 ай бұрын

    "Freedom taken for granted because we don't know what oppression means." Anthrax

  • @mpkr5337
    @mpkr533710 ай бұрын

    Worry about the future of the US and its dollars.

  • @garyeuscher4499
    @garyeuscher449910 ай бұрын

    Excellent!

  • @taleiran
    @taleiran10 ай бұрын

    Thank you for an insightful conversation. I would appreciate a more honest discussion of why Ambassador Sullivan and the CIA so completely failed and so much overestimated Russia an grossly underestimated Ukrainian resolve and capabilities. This assessment was the most important tasks for the CIA, and they failed miserably. Where is Mr. Sullivan’s mea culpa? Not just a passing phrase , “I was wrong” and then move on to describe at length the failures of FSB. I would also love to hear what HR and Mr. Sullivan think about Mr Burns who despite having failed in his job in the run up to to this war is still largely determining the US strategy. I would also love to hear a discussion of why Biden administration holds off on delivering enough arms to Ukraine to win, not just to withstand the Russian onslaught.

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    Always overestimate your enemy and underestimate yourselves. This is a recipe for victory. The quantity of arms required for Ukraine to win(restore full territorial integrity including Crimea) would require over a trillion dollars in materiel and support. That's not something the US should commit to or can afford to commit to. At best we can offer a stalemate.

  • @carlbyronrodgers
    @carlbyronrodgers10 ай бұрын

    Interesting and informative.

  • @Anthrofuturism
    @Anthrofuturism10 ай бұрын

    Run for president HR

  • @sebastianmessina31
    @sebastianmessina3110 ай бұрын

    Do people not hear what Putin says because they don’t want to hear the awful truth.

  • @capt2026
    @capt202610 ай бұрын

    The ideal subject matter expert. Well done.

  • @pookatim
    @pookatim10 ай бұрын

    The West underestimated Putin. Putin underestimated Zelenskyy.

  • @5ty717
    @5ty71710 ай бұрын

    So correct

  • @lukepiotr
    @lukepiotr10 ай бұрын

    I don't think comparing Putin to the Nazi leader is the way to go. I was dissapointed in the way the former ambassador laid this out. Seems overly simplistic and very biased and doesn't really concider the situation from the Russian point of view

  • @LLlap

    @LLlap

    10 ай бұрын

    Did you consider the situation from Hitler's point of view?

  • @Amerideclinespengler84
    @Amerideclinespengler8410 ай бұрын

    Sullivan this is not Munich or ww2 and your historical perspective is deeply subjective

  • @vectoraerialimaging774
    @vectoraerialimaging77410 ай бұрын

    H.R. Please run for President! We desperately need smart, intelligent leadership during this turmoil.

  • @michaeltbarry2096
    @michaeltbarry209610 ай бұрын

    Thank you, Sir. Please give Mr Kennedy a call (he’s running for President), and ask him out to lunch for a chat.

  • @mortenjohansen4120
    @mortenjohansen412010 ай бұрын

    I missed a discussion on how a potential Trump administration would handle the Ukraine situation

  • @farzana6676

    @farzana6676

    10 ай бұрын

    Trump won't win. He's made himself toxic outside his base.

  • @elena_007
    @elena_00710 ай бұрын

    100%

  • @shingnosis
    @shingnosis10 ай бұрын

    Amb. John Sullivan is brilliant, very clear-thinking and obviously speaking from decades of experience.

  • @vaasdaas9587

    @vaasdaas9587

    10 ай бұрын

    He is blind.

  • @kingcrazymani4133
    @kingcrazymani413310 ай бұрын

    Greetings from Quincy, Massachusetts! Quincy is “The City of Presidents (and Vice Presidents).” John Adams was the first Vice President. I just looked up JQ Adams. As I thought, JQ was never Vice President. I stand by my addition to the official city label. I have a few quibbles with John’s assessment, but at the time he was righter than I was. I look forward to discussing the details some day. 41:40. Should John wish to quote my 3rd great grandfather, the quote was (before they changed it a bit to prove me wrong), “If nominated, I shall not run. If elected, I shall not serve.” Different Kings for different times. 53:20. This much I can say about Vladimir Putin’s “messianic” concept of intellectual integrity…. He passed on all joint actions involving several areas of pre-invasion agreement, beginning in late 2016. Big words meeting reasonable responses with the ignore technique. He had other agendas. As I noted, this much I can now say. Maybe soon, details can be and will be added.

  • @pinkbike0217
    @pinkbike021710 ай бұрын

    Thanks

  • @pinkbike0217

    @pinkbike0217

    10 ай бұрын

    💓💖💖💖💖💖💖💖💖💖💖💖💖

  • @aussietroll7873
    @aussietroll787310 ай бұрын

    Putin, like Hitler, told you EXACTLY what he thought and what he was going to do. Hitler did it in Mein Kampf, people ignored it or brushed it off. Putin did it in 2007, then again in (more famously) in 2008. Again, brushed it off. “Playing to a domestic audience”, “he’s just venting”… etc, etc. Both of them were stating quite clearly, and quite openly, what their views and ambitions were. The fact that the stated objectives of both ultranationalist leaders seemed completely outlandish… doesn’t mean a thing. Ultimately both carried out their brutally violent fantasies at the cost of millions of lives. So the lessons learned from this are: When psychopathic autocrats tell you what they’re thinking BELIEVE THEM. Take action before it’s too late. Don’t hide behind the comfort-zone of your own worldview.

  • @miken2604

    @miken2604

    10 ай бұрын

    how do we end this horrible war

  • @woodrow60
    @woodrow6010 ай бұрын

    I’ve watched only the first 10 minutes so far. The Ambassador’s response to the criticisms of NATO growth is excellent. Those who criticise the West never stop to think that perhaps Russian attitudes should change. Similarly logic applies to the West’s dealings with CCP-controlled China. It’s deeply encouraging to see such a robust position being expressed by senior people in the US.

  • @williamwells1862
    @williamwells186210 ай бұрын

    So now we know.

  • @MFJoneser
    @MFJoneser10 ай бұрын

    In point of fact, at the key juncture, Russia did not provide adequate assurance.

  • @harrymills2770
    @harrymills277010 ай бұрын

    Kievan RUS faced the Mongols in the 13th Century.

  • @JM-vh7oc
    @JM-vh7oc10 ай бұрын

    Minsk? I don't care it wasn't signed, it was an agreement that was relied on and we reneged on it. I think we do have some culpability. I do think we have provoked to a degree.

  • @jetset7772
    @jetset777210 ай бұрын

    Mr mcmasters, can you straighten your pictures… they hang lopsided!!!!!~

  • @dedetudor.
    @dedetudor.10 ай бұрын

    When are you going to talk about the 4th Industrial Revolution?

  • @felipearbustopotd
    @felipearbustopotd10 ай бұрын

    40:24 As rightly stated, Pootin is not interested in any off ramps, his focus is just simply put, to be imperialistic. As for the fact that he (Pootin ) capitalizes on weakness, so true. Thank you for uploading and sharing.

  • @andrewwhite9268
    @andrewwhite926810 ай бұрын

    I have never heard such total mince

  • @charlesoyibo9536
    @charlesoyibo953610 ай бұрын

    Two sides to every story!

  • @felipe-vibor
    @felipe-vibor10 ай бұрын

    Russia did not change European boarders for the first time, NATO had done that in Yugoslavia. How uneducated are Americans?

  • @eugenem.762
    @eugenem.76210 ай бұрын

    Да, посол прав, говоря о том что сейчас люди в россии лучше осведомлены о том, что происходит в штатах, чем американцы о том, что происходит в россии. Но это благодаря пропаганде в россии. Тоже самое было и в ссср. Пропаганда специально рассказывала о проблемах за границей и фокусировала внимание аудитории на том, что там происходит, чтобы отвлечь внимание публики от внутренних проблем россии / ссср. Российская пропаганда ничего нового не изобрела. Должен сказать, что в девяностые годы, до путина, всё российское телевидение было сосредоточено только на российских проблемах, на внутренних делах. Граждане россии были озабочены только тем, что происходит в их стране.

  • @user-vr6io5xb9e
    @user-vr6io5xb9e10 ай бұрын

    He’s right. Not just Russians but almost all your adversaries know you very well because we have the advantage of studying you comfortably since many of us as comfortable with English language as our native tongue. This is one of the downsides of your cultural hegemony .

  • @katewoolf6059
    @katewoolf605910 ай бұрын

    Thank God Biden, not Trump, was in office

  • @harrymills2770

    @harrymills2770

    10 ай бұрын

    Geez.

  • @irresponsiblyblue1411

    @irresponsiblyblue1411

    10 ай бұрын

    Both wars against Ukraine happened on Biden's watch. But I'm sure it's just a coincidence.

  • @johnwalsh4857
    @johnwalsh485710 ай бұрын

    and Russian army messed up badly so bad Ukraine 6 months after the invasion was able to regain 50 percent of the territory they lost in the Kherson and Kharkov offensives and now 1.5 months into the war, the Ukrs are dong offensives vs. the Russians and still regaining territory and there was an absurd attempted coup vs. Putin,wow.

  • @sitivene4070
    @sitivene407010 ай бұрын

    Ukraine is fighting NATO's war against Russia. Ukraine is sacrificing their people and critical infrastructure and fighting a war that the NATO democracies do not have the will or popular support to conduct. The US has not and would not commit troops without air superiority yet we expect our sponsored ally to conduct offensive operations against an enemy with superior air assets while we observe and grade the results of their brave efforts. It is difficult not to see the NATO countries as a bit cynically for urging Ukraine on while withholding assets they would provide their military in a similar existential conflict.

  • @sichere

    @sichere

    10 ай бұрын

    It's a fine balance for escalation and necessity. Russia took the bait and is bleeding out economically and military, which is a win win for NATO and without them being "directly involved". It's a war of survival for Ukraine and Russia and NATO is firmly on one side.

  • @yp77738yp77739

    @yp77738yp77739

    10 ай бұрын

    It’s not cynical it’s deliberative. All the actions of, particularly the US, forced the RF to invade. We are bleeding out the RF forces using the blood of Ukrainians and Zelensky has sold out his young men for his 30 pieces of US silver. I’d put Zelensky up there with the most despicable leaders of the last 300 years. All the time Russians are dying the aid will trickle in, as soon as the death stops we will bolt and run. Zelensky will disappear to his prosperous exile and Ukraine will be left a husk, probably to be split between the RF and Poland.

  • @SMarkGee

    @SMarkGee

    10 ай бұрын

    i totally agree. The cynic would then say that it is better for the West for the Ukrainian youth to die rather than our youth in 5-20 years' time when Putin further expanded.

  • @marceloeguino

    @marceloeguino

    10 ай бұрын

    Putin committed and unforced error, he didn’t have to invade Ukaine

  • @tocu9808

    @tocu9808

    10 ай бұрын

    Some bastard had just spat out flout NATO is not Amazon shops where Ukraine could ask for this and that !

  • @johndilivio2770
    @johndilivio277010 ай бұрын

    Is nato a paper tiger

  • @kathrinkweseleit7074

    @kathrinkweseleit7074

    10 ай бұрын

    NATO is a defense alliance…

  • @PF-vn4qz
    @PF-vn4qz10 ай бұрын

    Incredibly biased and one sided view

  • @adrianthree3
    @adrianthree310 ай бұрын

    I agree with them however from neither did I gain any new insight....all the commentators are repeating each other...maybe there is nothing else to do but that in order to persuade Congress...if they watch these programs...to support Ukraine in their valiant fight

  • @krzysztofzegan5661
    @krzysztofzegan566110 ай бұрын

    USA keep going, Russia is just about to run out of amunition.😂😂😂

  • @harrymills2770

    @harrymills2770

    10 ай бұрын

    USA's out of ammo. Russia's growing.

  • @felipe-vibor
    @felipe-vibor10 ай бұрын

    USA ambassadors knew long time that Ukraine is the brightest of all redlines for Moscow but they still went ahead to poke the bear

  • @escapefelicity2913
    @escapefelicity291310 ай бұрын

    What were your hopes for that fuking background noise?

  • @jolantamsk3894
    @jolantamsk389410 ай бұрын

    Dealing with russia is like dealing with a narcissist- delusional all the way. With all due respect gentleman- angela worked for volodimir.

  • @joshuap9580
    @joshuap958010 ай бұрын

    why did he think he can get away with it? well after Trump he thought he could do anything!

  • @letdaseinlive

    @letdaseinlive

    10 ай бұрын

    You mean Biden?

  • @dmka12

    @dmka12

    10 ай бұрын

    You mean, after a strong president like Trump a senile geriatric like biden who is only interested in enriching his family wouldn't try to stop him?

  • @user-pd9ju5dk5s

    @user-pd9ju5dk5s

    10 ай бұрын

    Wtf you talking about. He invaded soon as Biden started 😂

  • @reaccionapuertorico

    @reaccionapuertorico

    10 ай бұрын

    Lay off the coke.

  • @markb8468

    @markb8468

    10 ай бұрын

    ​@user-pd9ju5dk5s I'm not defending Biden and how he ended Afghanistan war but putin definitely miscalculated what Biden would do. There's a reason the ruskies are VERY optimistic about Trump getting reelected. At this point, if the ruskies are supporting you then you're lumped in with DKRK, Iran, and (to some extent) China.

  • @harrymills2770
    @harrymills277010 ай бұрын

    Tell Syria, Iraq, Libya, Kosovo, Afghanistan that NATO's a peaceful alliance.

  • @realRainz
    @realRainz10 ай бұрын

    So, why not, in the dead of night, take all black sea fleet and navy ports and infra out in one shot? We can do it, blame it on Ukraine. And Ukraine will take credit with pleasure! Let's call this plan "Silent Night". I can hear the song while we are at it at 2AM Russian time ))

  • @allydea

    @allydea

    10 ай бұрын

    This sounds about as realistic as "Kyiv in 3 days".

  • @ruthmcconel3430
    @ruthmcconel343010 ай бұрын

    I watch this from China ,just to be honest , I firmly believe that the furture ,the bright future ,only belongs to Ameria and the countries obey the rule of law ,value the decency of the individual , China doesn't have the potential to compete or stride forward ,as we don't believe the cpp ,have no faith in the country ,the system, most young people scramble to find a job in public service ,but not aim to serve the country, but just to have steady job ,and some of them want to seek chance to corrupt ,to live a wealthy life ,and that's a tip of the iceberg ,that reflects the vulenrability of the ccp's China

  • @makishavadjias8696
    @makishavadjias869610 ай бұрын

    and then got into nato ex yugoslavian districts ..... yes or no ... come on ....

  • @jessiejb4684
    @jessiejb468410 ай бұрын

    Shame on this guy for selling such bs. And he was a diplomat?! Seriously, What is wrong with these people?

  • @makishavadjias8696
    @makishavadjias869610 ай бұрын

    lying again ...how did nato defend us and europe in yugoslavia ....

  • @GBow503
    @GBow50310 ай бұрын

    When war hawks talk

  • @tommyschmierer4627
    @tommyschmierer462710 ай бұрын

    I just want to make a comment of the rise of Russian militarism... When NATO proved to Russia that it was NOT a defensive organisation in the 1990s ... when they bombed the former Yugoslavia... THIS is the beginning of the rise of people like Putin and other more hard-line former Communists and former members of the old Soviet system... We , in the West, had a chance (at the end of the Cold war) to do something different with respect to Russia... And well, we blew it!!! ... In my opinion we COMPLETELY blew it when we started becoming more aggressive and then, ultimately, NATO bombed a SOVEREIGN NATION ... which was the former Yugoslavia... a nation that had attacked NO ONE and that was dealing with internal insurgencies and a terrorist organization at the time... the KLA... So, for anyone that is wondering how we got to where we are ... With the Russian army attacking Ukraine,? well, it all started with the NATO bombings of the former Yugoslavia 💯🙏... I would ask anyone to seriously consider what I just said...

  • @miken2604

    @miken2604

    10 ай бұрын

    they bombed the former yugoslavia because Serbia invaded and killed thousands of Croatians

  • @irresponsiblyblue1411

    @irresponsiblyblue1411

    10 ай бұрын

    BS. Nothing was going to stop Russia. Russia has always been a blood-thirsty country. Before the Soviet, during the Soviet, and after. Its conquests will only ever be limited by its incompetence and corruption.

  • @1234z7
    @1234z710 ай бұрын

    🔲

  • @jeffgriffith7087
    @jeffgriffith708710 ай бұрын

    add the election of Trump to the events that encouraged Putin

  • @irresponsiblyblue1411

    @irresponsiblyblue1411

    10 ай бұрын

    Both wars against Ukraine happened on Biden's watch. A coincidence, surely.

  • @KongSunWu
    @KongSunWu10 ай бұрын

    The US mainly and NATO created this situation by in fact declaring war on Russia decades ago. You pushed Russia into a corner and this is what happens. When is enough enough? Vietnam Iraq Afghanistan we’re not enough for you?

  • @harrymills2770

    @harrymills2770

    10 ай бұрын

    Libya, Kosovo, Libya.

  • @coopoylozenge5964

    @coopoylozenge5964

    10 ай бұрын

    As a student of modern history, I’m afraid to say that I missed the declaration of war to which you refer. Could you please provide the date and location of the declaration so that I can verify it. It’s just that I’m fearing that you are making an utterly idiotic and fabricated assertion.

  • @matthewoneil8037
    @matthewoneil803710 ай бұрын

    so funny listening to neocon warpigs

  • @johnwalsh4857
    @johnwalsh485710 ай бұрын

    yah Russians study the USA and the west but they cant seem to understand our thinking. their view is seen thru the fog of their culture and ideology.

  • @harrymills2770

    @harrymills2770

    10 ай бұрын

    No. USA is irrational.

  • @mryouben
    @mryouben10 ай бұрын

    Greetings to putlers trollbotboys

  • @johnwalsh4857
    @johnwalsh485710 ай бұрын

    motivated but not enought to make a difference in this war, after Putin, Russian will get a massive karma. a massive syria somalia. a decades long civil war with millions of dead.

  • @makishavadjias8696
    @makishavadjias869610 ай бұрын

    sorry you are saying that we r tough on russians like english and french were on germany before ww2 and you say chamberlain was week on germany .......relax .... your are lying for a greater cause not personal benefit ....

  • @Urmumurmum2
    @Urmumurmum29 ай бұрын

    Sullivan is way off and wrong.

  • @makishavadjias8696
    @makishavadjias869610 ай бұрын

    your body language (eye lids closing fast) is denoting you are lying ......

  • @georgeborrowfan
    @georgeborrowfan10 ай бұрын

    If the female voice is AI generated, it is extremely irritating: if it is a real person, then that is even scarier, since she is adopting the inflections of an AI generated voices. If you asking us to listen, please at least give us the courtesy of having a human speak.