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Ukraine's air defense problems allow Russia to launch HIMARS style deep strikes far behind the front lines.
According to Business Insider, Russia has begun launching an increased number of drones beyond Ukrainian positions, obtaining intelligence on the positions of critical weapons and facilities. These objects can then become targets for attacks by guided tactical missiles.
"The enhanced presence of Russian UAVs allows Russian forces to pinpoint and destroy targets behind the front lines," senior fellow Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London wrote.
Russia lost most of its drones for much of the war to strong Ukrainian air defenses, but Kyiv's air defenses are now vulnerable. Ukraine is trying to focus on intercepting missiles, aircraft and Orlan missiles that are wandering over the front line.
Thanks to better targeting, Russia strikes behind the lines with Iskander tactical ballistic missiles and missile launchers such as the Tornado-S system. These attacks are very similar to the Ukrainian HIMARS strikes.
"In recent days, Russia has managed to strike a Ukrainian Buk air defense system and hit two Ukrainian helicopters on the ground while refueling. There have been other notable strikes that Russia has long sought but rarely successfully carried out," Watling wrote.
Russia was initially unable to carry out strikes like the Ukrainian HIMARS due to lack of accuracy, targeting capabilities and timely information. These strikes, as well as glide bomb attacks, further strain the Ukrainian army, which faces constant depletion of resources.
The changes come as Russia prepares the groundwork for a summer offensive that could put significant pressure on Kharkiv and areas around Zaporozhye before a push into the Donbass.
Ukraine is still waiting for additional assistance from its international partners to strengthen the increasingly weak areas of combat training, ammunition and industrial capacity.
“While Ukraine lacks equipment, Russia will begin to increase its advantages,” Watling concluded.
But there are things that only Ukraine can do. Watling said Ukraine needed to mobilize enough troops and create a training pipeline that would "not only compensate for losses in its existing units, but also recruit enough units to manage their rotation on and off the line."
“This allows us to train troops and also rebuild reserves,” he said. But if international partners fail to provide artillery, air defense, electronic warfare systems and other support, then Kyiv's forces will struggle. "The outlook in Ukraine is grim. But with the right effort and support, "Russia's summer offensive can be blunted," Watling added.
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