RR

Тәжірибелік нұсқаулар және стиль

While there is certainly room for rigorous debate regarding market efficiency versus inefficiency, there are many who dismiss Eugene Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as an incorrect model without understanding what the implications are or how to test it. In today’s episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we tackle some common market efficiency myths and misconceptions using Fama’s 1970 paper on EMH as well as supporting papers by Kenneth French, Lubos Pastor, José Scheinkman, and many others. You’ll also hear about behavioural finance, quantitative investing, human bias, and momentum as they relate to market efficiency before debunking some anecdotal misconceptions about EMH involving Warren Buffet and Renaissance Technologies. In addition to our fascinating main topic for today, you’ll get a glimpse into the four waves of a career in Cameron’s review of The Long Game by Dorie Clark and Benjamin shares some notes and corrections regarding the user cost model from Episode 180: Is Canada Really in a Housing Bubble? We also discuss housing as a depreciating asset, innovation stocks in deep value territory, and the size of innovation platforms relative to global market cap and what that means for investors, plus a whole lot more. Make sure not to miss this jam-packed episode for everything you need to know (and forget) about market efficiency!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:45 Cameron's Recommendations
18:45 Notes and Corrections on Episode 180: Is Canada Really in a Housing Bubble
29:18 Discussion of Cathie Wood's article: 'Innovation Stocks Are Not in A Bubble: We Believe They Are in Deep Value Territory'
43:40 Market Efficiency Myths and Misconceptions
1:29:55 Talking Cents
Book From Today’s Episode:
The Long Game - amzn.to/3GnbSoX
Links From Today’s Episode:
Rational Reminder on iTunes - itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/t....
Rational Reminder Website - rationalreminder.ca/
Shop Merch - shop.rationalreminder.ca/
Join the Community - community.rationalreminder.ca/
Follow us on Twitter - / rationalremind
Follow us on Instagram - @rationalreminder
Benjamin on Twitter - / benjaminwfelix
Cameron on Twitter - / cameronpassmore
'Innovation Stocks Are Not in A Bubble: We Believe They Are in Deep Value Territory' - ark-invest.com/articles/marke...
'Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work' - www.jstor.org/stable/2325486
'Random Walks in Stock Market Prices' - www.jstor.org/stable/4469865
'On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance' - www.jstor.org/stable/2329556
'Luck Versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Returns' - www.jstor.org/stable/40864991
'Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets' - www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/...
'The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information' - www.jstor.org/stable/2525569
Planet Money Summer School 1: The Stock Market (NPR) - www.npr.org/2021/07/28/102177...
'Was There A Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?' - www.researchgate.net/publicat...
'Managerial Miscalibration' - www.jstor.org/stable/26372532
'Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles' - www.princeton.edu/~wxiong/pap...

Пікірлер: 31

  • @og7952
    @og79522 жыл бұрын

    Ben, you should write a book about explaining topics like that, in (relative) simple terms, or Renting vs buying, etc. This would be so interesting.

  • @Rational_Investor
    @Rational_Investor2 жыл бұрын

    Wow! Just wow!! Each and every week the Rational Reminder podcast just hits a grand slam! What an incredibly interesting, informative, and thought-changing resource which I consider myself very privileged and fortunate to listen to. Ben and Cameron continue to produce the ultimate in quality of thought and effort! Thank you to both of you and your entire production staff!

  • @calum6590

    @calum6590

    2 жыл бұрын

    Seeing "Wow! Just wow!!" I thought this was initially a comment about the size of Ben's feet.

  • @Rational_Investor

    @Rational_Investor

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@calum6590 Lol...Mr. Felix is a very tall gentleman, but, of course, I was indeed referring the quality of the podcast and the information derived therein. 😄

  • @dmoon9037

    @dmoon9037

    2 жыл бұрын

    Episode links continue to be immensely valuable to us spectators.

  • @ivo1630
    @ivo16302 жыл бұрын

    No idea how this isn't huge on KZread to be honest

  • @ale_fina
    @ale_fina2 жыл бұрын

    Love that Oscar joined the conversation 🐶🐾🦴

  • @investimentos
    @investimentos2 жыл бұрын

    Absolutely amazing, like always. Thank you for your time and knowledge Ben and Cameron!

  • @piranhaa2
    @piranhaa22 жыл бұрын

    Super awesome to see someone else have similar views to home ownership. I bought my home in my mid-20s and for years regretted it since nobody told me how much work it was to maintain it. Everyone was quick to tell me to buy a home to build equity, but I never heard once how much work would be involved to keep it up. Now that I've matured (and still in the same home), I can appreciate it a bit more, but there was a long period of time I should have probably rented. Good life lesson!

  • @georgebetsis8121
    @georgebetsis81212 жыл бұрын

    Ben, in regards to buildings’ depreciation: Yes of course but there are factors that can affect the level of depreciation such as the type of the structure (masonry, reinforced concrete etc) and the location (earthquakes). Without getting into much technical details you can find old Victorian houses made of bricks without any structural issues, in places with no seismic activity at all (London, UK). On the other hand, in Athens - Greece you can find old buildings made of concrete and steel that have reached their end of life due to accumulated small damages from earthquakes and steel corrosion. In this case you will end up the with value of the land (minus demolition costs). So someone can argue that in some cases the depression will be a small figure for a long term period (100+ years).

  • @BenFelixCSI

    @BenFelixCSI

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks George. Depreciation takes two forms: physical depreciation, the normal wear and tear resulting from use; and functional deprecation, or obsolescence, as newer construction methods, standards, and materials make older homes less desirable. No building is immune to both, but they may be resilient to different degrees. I suspect some older homes may behave partially like collectibles.

  • @Yin_Esra
    @Yin_Esra Жыл бұрын

    You mentioned that Eric Budish will be coming on the podcast at some point later in that year. Did that episode happen? I can't seem to find it

  • @JHuJonathanHu
    @JHuJonathanHu2 жыл бұрын

    Love the episodes. Just wanted to note that I think the volume settings were much lower this episode than prior ones.

  • @robertwright8844
    @robertwright88442 жыл бұрын

    Ben, maybe you could add a pinned comment to the KZread video for RR #180, for future viewers who may not hear the correction about Canadian housing in this episode. You could also edit the description, although I think fewer people would notice that.

  • @jalalabadass
    @jalalabadass2 жыл бұрын

    Can't wait to see LeVar Burton on the podcast. 😎

  • @waelabdelkhalek9970
    @waelabdelkhalek99702 жыл бұрын

    I like listening to your content 👍

  • @MrCam143
    @MrCam1432 жыл бұрын

    Is Actual Rents a potentially flawed variable to use in this model considering there was a recent change to rent control laws in Ontario in ~2018 followed by a material increase in rent since? This could be artificially lowering your Ontario User Cost / Actual Rent ratio. The average annual rent in Ontario increased 2.5% on average between 1992 and 2016. But has averaged around 5% from 2017 through 2021. How does the model look if rents only increased 2.5% per year over the last few years instead of the 5%? Does that put your OUC/AC ratio higher than the 1 showed here? I also wonder if its possible for this model to be applied to a specific city or region like the GTA compared to more rural parts of Ontario which saw 50% to 100% increases during the pandemic.

  • @noleesk
    @noleesk2 жыл бұрын

    If prices are biased upwards because of shorting costs, would it be even more biased upwards if overall interest rates increased?

  • @noleesk
    @noleesk2 жыл бұрын

    you are the best

  • @ohhdan1230
    @ohhdan12302 жыл бұрын

    would be interesting to hear your guy's opionons on things like the magic formula, or the acquirers multiple. Are these good investment strategies that can beat the market, or is it only a thing that happened over a certain period. Or does the outperformance come as a result of factors.

  • @rationalreminder

    @rationalreminder

    2 жыл бұрын

    Magic formula is value investing with a quality screen. Acquirers multiple is TEV/Earnings. That is again similar to value investing with a profitability screen. Both are likely explained by known factors.

  • @britrock7657
    @britrock76572 жыл бұрын

    Not sure which podcast they were being referenced to but speaking for myself, I'm not in bitcoin because I think the market is inefficient. I'm in it because I think central banking monetary policy around fiat money is inefficient or bad or unsustainable or whichever word you want to use.

  • @michaelmahoney1829
    @michaelmahoney18292 жыл бұрын

    what camera do you use?

  • @rationalreminder

    @rationalreminder

    2 жыл бұрын

    rationalreminder.ca/equipment-list

  • @VegitoAttacks
    @VegitoAttacks2 жыл бұрын

    Can we get a video explaining the increasingly high inflation rates and how to leverage this to maximize our wealth?

  • @rationalreminder

    @rationalreminder

    2 жыл бұрын

    kzread.info/dash/bejne/aGmpyZJuetfNk7w.html

  • @mustavogaia2655
    @mustavogaia26552 жыл бұрын

    So cute of them trying to apply logic to Ark projections.

  • @holdened
    @holdened2 жыл бұрын

    How do you read so much? I am trying to get back into it. Its hard to dedicate time to it.

  • @cameronpassmore1561

    @cameronpassmore1561

    2 жыл бұрын

    a daily atomic habit of an hour per day.

  • @Martin-qb2mw
    @Martin-qb2mw2 жыл бұрын

    Yeah crypto is... not for me. Real Vision made a separate channel for crypto because they got the same feedback. Some people are into stocks and crypto but many aren't, and those who aren't doesn't want to listen to even a single second about it.

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