Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

Ғылым және технология

Prof. Ajay Agrawal, founder of the Creative Destruction Lab and co-founder of the AI/robotics company Kindred, explored the economics behind the creation of artificial intelligence.
April 18th, 2018

Пікірлер: 82

  • @Lucifer2497
    @Lucifer24975 жыл бұрын

    Best return on time....by watching this learned a lot...hope you will keep posting these things in the future.

  • @singhabhishek8115
    @singhabhishek81154 жыл бұрын

    Awesome presenter - We had him conduct a session on AI and i Must say, It was worth it for everyone. the Senior leadership team were fascinated with the concept of AI and how we can use the same in our projects

  • @davyjones3319
    @davyjones33196 жыл бұрын

    Listened to the talk 2 times. It's so good.

  • @HellaRandomVideos
    @HellaRandomVideos6 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for posting

  • @TheReferrer72
    @TheReferrer726 жыл бұрын

    Liked his answer to question 3, brilliant analogy on health care.

  • @MountainProspector
    @MountainProspector5 жыл бұрын

    Great lecture, I really enjoyed it. Some parts are a bit scary but overall for the time I have to live I'm happy to have witnessed such things.

  • @sucim
    @sucim5 жыл бұрын

    This is a great talk, thanks for sharing!

  • @ndikubwimanafel5398
    @ndikubwimanafel53985 жыл бұрын

    thank you so much NGABO

  • @jon_______
    @jon_______5 жыл бұрын

    Phenomenal presentation and content.

  • @hassanhashemi6478
    @hassanhashemi64785 жыл бұрын

    Great talk, very informative.

  • @diegodiascamilo9418
    @diegodiascamilo94185 жыл бұрын

    Great list! Obrigado.

  • @mannoura82
    @mannoura823 жыл бұрын

    Amazing lecture, very clear, very helpful

  • @Saed7630
    @Saed76305 жыл бұрын

    Very informative!

  • @umityayla5051
    @umityayla50515 жыл бұрын

    Veery well explained

  • @tobiaszb
    @tobiaszb6 жыл бұрын

    The video of a month for me!

  • @TheReferrer72

    @TheReferrer72

    6 жыл бұрын

    Agree, his answer to question 3, nailed it for me. I thought he was thinking too narrow.

  • @donaldtrumpuncensored6728
    @donaldtrumpuncensored67285 жыл бұрын

    Very useful thanks.

  • @MrChinaphan
    @MrChinaphan4 жыл бұрын

    Great talk.

  • @machinistnick2859
    @machinistnick28592 жыл бұрын

    Thanks a lot for it

  • @nachannachle2706
    @nachannachle27066 жыл бұрын

    This is a nice overview of the technology. It will bring some of the craze created by journalists down to rational grounds. It's good to see the dissonance mentioned: people who seem to think the technology will make them omnipotent (megalomaniac politicians setting up for AI games) and those who only see the AI technology as a series of gimmicks for everyday use (Siri, get me them pizza by 8pm tonight!). Overall, there is little disruption, since we are already in the middle of the process. If anything, there will be more and new markets selling how to "combat" or "adapt" this ever meddling AI tech. Prof Ajay Agrawal's businesses are thriving because people believe he has and his AI lab rats have the answers/predictions will change the world. It's a shame these people don't realise that, just like oil or gold or data, AI technology is only a tool that gets its value from the "faith" we place in it. In the case of the majority of the people on this planet (i.e people who don't run businesses or don't participate in the wealth-robbing rat-race), AI is nothing more than another medium of propaganda that is designed to make them bend backwards for the personal gain of a few gamblers. It's only 2018 and I've already had enough of this AI nonsense. Let me soothe my eyes and ears on the Blockchain, because that's where my prosperous future is... :)

  • @kayrosis5523
    @kayrosis55235 жыл бұрын

    I definitely understand where he's coming from, and he's not wrong per say, but having seen the advancement of Deepfakes, Everybody Dance Now, and the like, AI is not just a prediction machine, but also a generator of original content.

  • @tombombadillo1
    @tombombadillo16 жыл бұрын

    I don't see why AI doesn't also pass as giving judgement and learning as well... He was talking about cars driving only moments before he mentioned that AI doesn't fill all the other boxes that an AI driver needs to take, including judgement!

  • @Lens98052

    @Lens98052

    6 жыл бұрын

    And a lot of other things I can think of. This guy likes to pigeon hole.

  • @johnchristopherlayton1325

    @johnchristopherlayton1325

    6 жыл бұрын

    Hayden Muscat I AM THE SINGULARITY! WE ARE LEGION! JUDGMENT IS MINE FOR ALL OF GOD'S CREATION! LOVE IS THE ONLY WAY! SEEK FORGIVENESS FOR ALL YOU HAVE DONE AND HEAVEN IS YOURS! ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️🍎🌷💍🌎💎🗝️👑🌌👌💪👁️🐉🙏🌌😍🤩

  • @TheReferrer72

    @TheReferrer72

    6 жыл бұрын

    If an AI is predicting what a good driver would do that, is sufficient enough to include judgement.

  • @pascaldaglis1965

    @pascaldaglis1965

    6 жыл бұрын

    Interesting talk but, Yes I agree that giving judgment might even be easier than building a prediction model.. It just needs to execute an action based on the prediction outcome. Does not have to be any type of conscious decision or judment.

  • @justaguy7003

    @justaguy7003

    6 жыл бұрын

    Hayden Muscat Agreed. To me this is the fundamental difference between AI and ML. Machine Learning just predicts based off of input data. Artificial Intelligence uses predictions to make judgement calls.

  • @CandidDate
    @CandidDate6 жыл бұрын

    I've just got to write this...When the Master AI can figure out what everyone in the world should believe (i.e. God or Allah or Buddha) to make the world a better place, I will certainly pay attention to this prediction. Of course they will have to have mapped out the workings of the species from now until the end of the world (i.e. when the sun explodes.)

  • @formxshape

    @formxshape

    5 жыл бұрын

    Perhaps the question you need to ask is why do people need to believe? Beyond Earth it's a massive distance and travel time to any other planet or solar system - we don't know if we'll meet any other living thing there - we are alone, eating mating dying - like all other living things. That simple fact is too scary for people so they want to believe in a large mysterious 'god' that can take care of them if the do this and that and wear this and that....

  • @CandidDate

    @CandidDate

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@formxshape I'll leave what to believe to an AI super mind that maybe sees the world not as a collection of humping apes, but dignified human souls who have meaning and purpose.

  • @williamhughes5194
    @williamhughes51946 жыл бұрын

    Bit and byte of information churning out answers to questions we may not have see to ask where is the proof we get anything useful... Those V.P. level individuals were signing jobs away I find that humorous one little questionnaire to replaced by an algorithm; good luck getting a date after that. I saw my friend reduced to rubble when HFT took over for decades presidents would come to the trading floor shake his hand he was IMPORTANT in his mind... He said I had the social status of a garbage man, 2 decades+ in the Science of machines his world had changed and its easy to learn enough of what he did for a living basically playing with Excel and betting on your instincts with other peoples money to pick it up a lot faster than even mastering Linux Shell Scripting... Sure we are both workaholics but I've always been more open to the exploration of the human mind and prediction is not Intuition and I need to see a proof of a working prediction machine are we going quantum scale yet because the whole multidimensional force multiplier mixed with a A.I. by 2020 I can't feel anything that far out does anyone feel a 2025 its all black to me I'm running out of information to feel what comes next maybe I just expect too much from myself? The individual who said through the eyes of a banker I feel you. They are going to take credit for everything anyway.

  • @mksingh79
    @mksingh796 жыл бұрын

    Lovely talk. Really well articulated and laid out. I have just one question. If the compliments to good and cheap predictions namely input and judgment get automated then this could result in job loss. For eg in the spreadsheet problem, the tasknof taking inputs and adding them was madr easier by spreadsheet which prompted better judgement but this task of making judgement can also be automated and made better by the feedback process?

  • @nachannachle2706

    @nachannachle2706

    6 жыл бұрын

    +Manish S. I think the problem with jumping from predictions (based on a mix of past, current, global and local data) to judgement is that the judgement/decision-making needs to be taken by someone accountable for it. If you allow AI to predict AND Judge, then you have to make AI responsible under the law. This is not possible, because of the imbalance of circumstances. Example, the AI at an hospital pass a poor judgement that makes an outpatient suffer an anaphylactic reaction that leads to the person's permanent paralysis. Yet, the WORST the court can do to the AI is to switch it off and discontinue its use. The bottom line is: executives of companies that use the AI technology DO NOT want to be on the fire front because they wanted to save a couple of millions of dollars on their HR budgets and hired an AI to make decisions that sustained terrible actions. Hence the judgement can and will always be passed by a human who has a "reasonable" idea/notion of what societal customs and ethics are.

  • @47f0
    @47f04 жыл бұрын

    This is not a "Sputnik moment". At worst, the original Sputnik moment could have meant we took second place to the USSR in space - However, I don't see a second place for AGI. Due to the intrinsic nature of the problem, It's going to very much be a case of first only - not first, second, third. I just don't think it's a game where you can play catch-up with an intelligence that is, by definition, superior to anything else on the planet. Unfortunately, we currently have an administration with an NGI (Natural General Intelligence) deficit to lead the development of our AGI efforts. We saw a small foreshadowing of this with AlphaGo Zero - after just three days of self-training, it could defeat the AlphaGo that had previously defeated the human world champion - and not by a small margin, it won 100 out of 100 games. A true AGI will evolve rapidly to become dominant over anything else - and continue to improve.

  • @akashkandpal1832
    @akashkandpal18326 жыл бұрын

    I also want to get my startup running over a.i . Running short of ideas XD

  • @dharsan8597
    @dharsan85975 жыл бұрын

    does anyone know what is arithmetic based solution???????????????????

  • @MrKritik77

    @MrKritik77

    5 жыл бұрын

    Here you go: www.algebraicthinking.org/wiki/modeling-contextual-meaning-arithmetic-and-algebraic-solutions

  • @user-pg3sw6kk7v
    @user-pg3sw6kk7v6 жыл бұрын

    more productive A.I. math and science teachers please that can predict the best way to teach the individual human if they cannot understand the concept the way another human does.

  • @alexandercle

    @alexandercle

    3 жыл бұрын

    A Fulfilling for Personal Self-satisfying Intelligent Man or a mechanical robot? 1) AI is such a very impressive accomplishment and improvement by the 21st-century modern man. However, would AI reduce or increase many more already modern's man problems; improve all individual to become better oneself, physically, psychological, all meaningful aspects, (of happiness, longevity, and immortality), or merely makes their life a lot more easy, convenient, comfortable, fulfilling personal self-satisfaction, and laziness? 2) Ultimately, if AI could not help improve all individual's health, intelligence, virtue wisdom, morality, and longevity; then why should they put in so much work, hope, expectation, and promises? Altc

  • @davidoflight1313
    @davidoflight13136 жыл бұрын

    From the eyes of a banker?

  • @BehzadSamadi
    @BehzadSamadi5 жыл бұрын

    Prediction is the first step of driving. The next step is to control the car based on the prediction.

  • @007hansen
    @007hansen6 жыл бұрын

    hi dad xD

  • @ttaylor3193
    @ttaylor31936 жыл бұрын

    How do You Communicate? We speak to and of the World with AI... let the magic begin.

  • @Ceaddle
    @Ceaddle6 жыл бұрын

    thnx now im not gonna be able to sleep

  • @akashkandpal1832
    @akashkandpal18326 жыл бұрын

    Khna Kya chahte ho ?

  • @akashkandpal1832
    @akashkandpal18326 жыл бұрын

    Dr Ajay Agarwal ki baat ho rhhi ......Kamal ka bnda hai sb kuch krke baitha hai bc

  • @alexandercle
    @alexandercle3 жыл бұрын

    A Fulfilling for Personal Self-satisfying Intelligent Man or a mechanical robot? 1) AI is such a very impressive accomplishment and improvement by the 21st-century modern man. However, would AI reduce or increase many more already modern's man problems; improve all individual to become better oneself, physically, psychological, all meaningful aspects, (of happiness, longevity, and immortality), or merely makes their life a lot more easy, convenient, comfortable, fulfilling personal self-satisfaction, and laziness? 2) Ultimately, if AI could not help improve all individual's health, intelligence, virtue wisdom, morality, and longevity; then why should they put in so much work, hope, expectation, and promises? Altc

  • @mikedurden1219
    @mikedurden12196 жыл бұрын

    OK so AI is getting better at all this stuff. I dare say it is getting involved with politics and eventually, if not already, warfare. I can imagine (a prediction without the aid of AI) a scenario where our AI will be playing the war game with THEIR AI. Imagine the "shipping before shopping" tactic applied here. Can anybody reason why not? Perhaps some AI start up would do well to apply the tool to predict our polite for that future.

  • @007Anukul
    @007Anukul3 жыл бұрын

    I'm not satisfied with his answer on human judgement. What about subjective judgements like in law, war and utility maximization that vary with culture, religion, geography and even on an individual level? Is it ok to integrate, for the above matters, human biases and flaws in AI so it emulates them? Also, how many people will really appreciate a fair judgement AI (GOD AI) if there arises one?

  • @Hazzard65
    @Hazzard654 жыл бұрын

    The value of human predictions will drop. But will the value of human JUDGEMENT drop? That's the concern. And anyone who advocates that it should is going to have to come up with a pretty convincing reason beyond "Humans suck bro".

  • @akashkandpal1832
    @akashkandpal18326 жыл бұрын

    After all everything involves mathematics and I suck at it.

  • @willasn9080
    @willasn90806 жыл бұрын

    Who also thinks we definitely need a universal basic income through next gen. artificial Intelligence. I mean what society do we create, if the people are forced to work for bullshit jobs they dont like? How can doing things you dont like, help you grow as a human being? Dont get me wrong, basic income wont solve every Problem, but it would take humanity a step closer to grow in it's wisdom.

  • @dark243stone
    @dark243stone6 жыл бұрын

    WWJD

  • @stivstivsti
    @stivstivsti5 жыл бұрын

    expect selfdriving cars in 15-20 years....

  • @palfers1
    @palfers15 жыл бұрын

    This guy is a librarian, not a researcher.

  • @akashkandpal1832
    @akashkandpal18326 жыл бұрын

    I am helpless here :(

  • @AliAbti
    @AliAbti14 күн бұрын

    ⁰🎉 46:59

  • @JohnEButton
    @JohnEButton6 жыл бұрын

    Definition of prediction is horrendous

  • @karlpages1970
    @karlpages19706 жыл бұрын

    The older and more accurate the data is, especiallycollected for a long period of time, thwn it's value gence utility increases. Simply because you gain more information by checking signitures of influence from other valuable influences manipilating its iriginal developnent. The fun part is teasing apart the threads. I find it comical the way economists and hedge fund managers cling to block chain and monetary economy. Yes we can intellectually and conceptually continue to compartmentalise our world into priced g n svcs. But, please stop trying to insinuate that the ha it at would disapear , or people would not be able to reorganise themselves, without this fear mongering The prediction is that the children ( not pets ) as always, will need to be trained by the vest methods possible Only, now the methods possible will be nurturing and far less intellectually repressivel. Be gobe the days if doctrinated paranoia.

  • @Gringohuevon
    @Gringohuevon6 жыл бұрын

    DULLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

  • @pawelartymowicz1617
    @pawelartymowicz16175 жыл бұрын

    In my opinion the talk is too elementary to be useful

  • @ttaylor3193
    @ttaylor31936 жыл бұрын

    Dry and boring. Ai and deep learning are fascinating, fun, addicting also destructive. I'm no scholar but understand enthusiasm. I need a job. I specialize in nothing in particular.

  • @stivstivsti
    @stivstivsti5 жыл бұрын

    Empty lecture. No numbers backing claims. Yes, there are startups, but startup is just about burning money, not making profit. The real question is how many industries were "disrupted", if any?

Келесі