1% Mortgages Next NAIL IN THE COFFIN For Housing Market kzread.info/dash/bejne/qaSpsKx6f7yWXZc.html

@mikesrandomvideos

11 ай бұрын

having equity means nothing if you cant qualify to borrow the money.

@FreeAmericanUSA

11 ай бұрын

They should call these Idiot Loans.

@cowboybuilder

11 ай бұрын

Common Michael, Nick needs to pull his neck in. At 3.15 he says that there aren't people on KZread commenting that have significant amounts of cash on the sidelines waiting to invest. Well they do. Smart investors who understand leading indicators/precursors cashed up and exited late 2021, so they're sitting on cash. We could turn the tables on his statement and say 'People who profess to be subject matter experts in economics and investment wouldn't be doing walk and talk vlog on KZread'. The fact of the matter is that one mans ceiling is anothers floor in investing. Will property go down further? Very likely as any constraint on credit by definition means less $ chasing property. The real issue though is to consider by how much do you think property will go down by? Lots of investors have exited the market, hence the best time to buy can be RIGHT NOW if you're the only bidder at an auction of a distressed sale. Consider also in certain markets (Like here in the UK) there are far more people than houses, and everyone HAS to live somewhere... so if you buy a house below replacement value, then by implication you have a triple A investment so long as you are confident of not requiring access to its capital (Who want's to have a lot of $ at the banks which have a risk of collapse?). Like everything, the market overshoots, prices too high, then prices too low. If you can see and acquire something that is mispriced then eventually its $ at the bank. (NB: What will happen if the FED lowers the base rate? How would that affect institutional and regular investors? If you want to mitigate timing the market then $ cost average in over the next 18 months, buy a house every six months, you won't get the bottom but you'll get a good low average and most importantly get a chance to purchase property that would never come onto the market during an uptick, and most likely to rebound the most).

@thejuicerr

11 ай бұрын

But this just started. It's going to take many years for this affect the market. I'm sure these guys will be saying the same thing 5 years from now.

@davecros4887

11 ай бұрын

It’s the last thing they can do to keep the party going.

Demand is low not because people don't want homes, but because they can't afford them.

@anthonynguyen1701

11 ай бұрын

Well, you have houses in the 50 to 60k in places like Western Pennsylvania or Ohio. People need to relocate to those affordable areas to buy a house. That's about it.

@Kevinw4040

11 ай бұрын

Exactly. I’m so sick of these smucks lying that demand is low because of high prices. Wrong! It’s low because rates are high.

@ohcrapwhatsnext

11 ай бұрын

You dont have to be a real estate guru to know that.

@metoo5004

11 ай бұрын

Because they no longer qualify

@ethanwilliams3319

11 ай бұрын

@@Kevinw4040it’s both, prices and rates are high, either rates come down to sustain prices, or prices come down to sustain rates, they’re two heads of the same coin. At the end of the day all people care about is their monthly payment.

Michael is a good communicator. You can see how effectively he listens as much as he carries a conversation.

@TS-rd7oy

11 ай бұрын

Yes, this is rare in people.

@thedadyouneverhadchannel3544

8 ай бұрын

It’s not hard.

Yeah and we are the ones paying the government debt through taxes. The whole system is messed up! Rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Whether or not there is a crash, the best thing to do is to save money, stay out of debt, and buy when you're ready. Wait for mortgage rates to come down.

@williewill1237

11 ай бұрын

Bad advice, wait till the rates hit 9 9 -11% then buy for cheap never by a house that is overvalued. Never go full r-ard!

@Kevinw4040

11 ай бұрын

@@williewill1237rates will not hit 9-11%.

@timgrenski4781

11 ай бұрын

​@@njerseydavidLOL good one

@fueledbymusic3

11 ай бұрын

NOT going to happen

@EvelinHolmes

11 ай бұрын

We saved money even when we only got ..06% interest . We just renewed some money and it’s 5%. It’s all how you look at it.

Yes, people will be forced to sell but there won't be buyers who can afford to keep up with Insurance, Government regulations, Interest rates.

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

My thoughts as well

@joesmith3590

11 ай бұрын

@@MichaelBordenaroall that is going to do is push the cost from equity which at least is yours and you own to insurance and HoA cost. Your cost are the same and one is good for you. Clueless channel lol

Patience is the word. I remember in 2005 and 2006 asking myself why the bubble had not burst yet. I think it always takes longer than is logical , tough to time it though.

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Yes, timing things like this is tough. Especially with so much government intervention.

@Kevin-im1ns

11 ай бұрын

Imo, they want the consumer completely broken otherwise they lose out on total control. Seems like the American dream is only a dream these days

@michaelcostin2384

11 ай бұрын

It doesn't happen overnight. Bernanke kept saying, thebans are good, there's no crash all good. People are struggling and banks are in trouble. One day its crashing, the day after that, no it not crashing. These guys too, ClICKBAIT.

@IP0Monsturd

11 ай бұрын

My Favorite Fairy Tale is that EVERYBODY is broke as a joke except the wannabe real estate moguls on KZread. Some people will have to unload their homes but to think you are going to buy prime, beach front properties for pennies on the dollar I think you are delusional. Finally, who in their right mind would buy property in Frisco?

@CynthiaWord-iq7in

11 ай бұрын

Yes, but that was the opposite of now. They were holding/trying to pay for a house worth half what they borrowed. Houses are now with twice what people paid yet they cannot sell because rent or own...they can't get back in.

People buying a house right now at this peak are going to live to regret it when the bubble bursts within the next year. They won't be able to afford it, but also will have to sell at a loss with no equity. Now is a horrible time to be buying anything real estate wise.

@ChrisJarzyk

10 ай бұрын

How will it burst? Will all the ARM people used to buy homes with start making people go into default? 39% of people in the country own their home outright another 28% have low fixed rates with big money down. Tough to crash a market with fixed rates.

@jbeyers84

10 ай бұрын

​@@ChrisJarzyk you're leaving out the two income trap consumer debt and student loans. They'll be forced to sell before forclosure.

@ChrisJarzyk

10 ай бұрын

@@jbeyers84 you can keep saying it but a crazy isn’t coming. Quick stats 39% of people in the country own their home outright, 28% have 50% equity on low fixed rates with lots of money down. This isn’t 2007, the kid in the video is a clickbait king he has been calling for a crash for 3 plus years and continues to push it back. You know a crash isn’t happening.

@justincadle7070

6 ай бұрын

And when rates drop, and they won’t drop fast, they will have to bring a lot of cash to the table because the price they bought it for has crashed. They’ll have to stay married to the rate and the home. Or sell the home at a loss.

@asullivan4047

2 ай бұрын

Ok-!!! Answer the following question-???🤔.. Whom will have the funds to purchase those lower cost mortgage payments-? If they can't afford it now-???

Last year houses were selling within 2 weeks where I live, even tho they were very overpriced.....Now, houses for sale just sit there with no buyers. No one is even looking at them now. A very different story now. People I've talked to say prices need to drop at least 30% for them to become interested. You two are spot on!

@marinawong9662

11 ай бұрын

Which town do you live in?

@carefulconsumer8682

11 ай бұрын

@@marinawong9662 Houston suburb.

@zoobrizz

10 ай бұрын

Bidenomics is kicking in.

@zoobrizz

10 ай бұрын

@@legendbe2023. They aren’t

People making $140K a year can't afford a house and this is sustainable?

@bennguyen2963

11 ай бұрын

where did you get that from ? if you make 100K+, you can afford a house. unless you want to buy 2+ millions house.

@the_derpler

11 ай бұрын

@@bennguyen2963 Agreed, anyone making 100+k can totally buy a home. You just have to move a few hours away from your job that pays you that lol.

@questionauthority7377

11 ай бұрын

@@bennguyen2963not really Einstein 0bvisuly you don’t live in Southern California or some other blue state

@franciscoruiz8612

11 ай бұрын

I am in CA and make over 130k and homes are unaffordable. And by unaffordable I don't mean I can't qualify, I mean I would be house poor.

@espada9

11 ай бұрын

@@bennguyen2963 With interest rates a nice house in most towns not in a fecal hole area would require a mortgage rate of around $3500 to $4000 a month. You must think 100K goes as far as it did back in 91'

Two of my favorite guys. Nice to see you both together. Your advice and updates are greatly appreciated .

@idliketosay

11 ай бұрын

😂😂🤮🤮🤮

@andresmattos7541

11 ай бұрын

LOL YOU LIKE CLICKBAIT KZreadRS.

@davidaponte7521

11 ай бұрын

@@andresmattos7541 I don’t know what you mean, what are clickbait KZreadrs?

@Coffeendonuts

11 ай бұрын

2 broken clocks

@alfeocayabyab8233

11 ай бұрын

@@Coffeendonutsthere are right twice a day. You can least give them that.

Crash is the wrong term. A real estate correction takes months if not years to play out, the whole event deemed a “crash” after the the smoke clears. Prices need to drop a lot more to qualify for crash status. We are in mild correction territory now in select areas, if it keeps up, then we will be in crash territory. Real estate is local, so we will more than likely have both crash areas and correction areas.

@Coffeendonuts

11 ай бұрын

Absolutely correct. 1928 there were signs of distress on mortgages. By 1929 it escalated to a full blown crisis. 2006 housing abruptly lost its steam and stagnated until late 2007 when foreclosures started happening. By 2008 prices precipitously started dropping. Right now we are in a stagnated market. It could go up or down. If prices start to climb and break trend above previous highs the path of least resistance is up. If it fails to make new highs the trend will be down. Speculation about mass unemployment is neither here nor there. It has not happened so it is not reality. High unemployment is also not synonymous with falling home prices. The entire decade of the 1970s were plagued by high unemployment (higher than the Great Recession) and housing prices rose 140% from 1970-1980. Despite very high interest and unemployment.

@dademack3544

11 ай бұрын

Yeah but Crashbro sounds much better then Correctionbro. Crash=fear and panic, Correction=normal market reaction. Understand the goal here is to create views, sensationalism does that, not boring typical market cycle stuff.

Agreed! I'm in FLA and the insurance issue is adding to the problems is higher utility and taxes it's outrageous and intentional. I expect foreigners from a particular nation will be gobbling up everything they can find.

@ipenguin3918

11 ай бұрын

You don't mean the C Word do you?

@Johnny-Utah-91

11 ай бұрын

Colombians still have to insure and pay HOA fees on their crappy condos

@EconomicWarfare

11 ай бұрын

Bingo!

@janwheeler6094

11 ай бұрын

Oh yeah, they are called Blackrock which China owns most of the stock. They have over 30 billion just waiting for the picking. They will rent the home back to the person they got it from.

@1powerequalsgod

11 ай бұрын

China is most likely to sell property then keep on holding it the country is full of crap homes and allot of high unemployment. 8 million business closings.

Nick is the most data driven guy of all of you guys. You all provide a different perspective and area of expertise. Glad you got together.

@cookingwithadamkahnandlixu2718

11 ай бұрын

While the data makes for interesting commentary, it means very little. Until you see everyone piling in because they think the markets going to go and go and go we haven’t seen a top

@straightdrive6192

11 ай бұрын

They all provide right data however the outcome predicted is all wrong, did home prices crash yet ?

@cookingwithadamkahnandlixu2718

11 ай бұрын

@@straightdrive6192 Yes. The data is accurate. People who explain why markets are going to go lower usually have the best data and make a ton of sense. They’re just usually wrong despite the data

@jgg204

11 ай бұрын

Nick is very data driven, but he's been wrong about the housing market 100% of the time over the last 3 yrs lol

@ShadeDraws

11 ай бұрын

It's not a binary position: right/wrong. That's overly simplistic and reeks of not understanding markets. Housing markets don't "crash" overnight. It's a slow drain. There was no "crash" after the '08 downturn, either. It still took 4-5 years to get back to acceptable pricing. And the "housing market" is an aggregate of a massive number of smaller markets. Prices have dropped precipitously in some areas and remained steady or even inflated in others.@@jgg204

With hurricanme idalia, expect another good hike in insurance rate for Florida.

@utpharmboy2006

11 ай бұрын

that's the best case, the other is the few remaining just leave

@ryanross9429

11 ай бұрын

Will look forward to it. Just need a reason to raise it. Now they have it. We should be good.

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

I was thinking the same. No shortage of coverage on that for me

I work with a large Title company and I noticed 98% of the closings I do with them are small LLCs( flippers). I also noticed older people cashing out and moving closer to their kids out of state or smaller more rural areas

@AlphaJ369

9 ай бұрын

One would think a pro flipper would be more intelligent. Also, Zillow just bought a friends house in Sacramento for way overvalue. Their monthly offer to him just went up 60K and he took it, even when not wanting to sell initially. Most of the institutional buyers are way behind the times and many billions in debt. They will be dumping thousands of homes soon and that will trigger the crash.

@amyb5356

9 ай бұрын

@@AlphaJ369 who is the pro flipper you talk about?

@AlphaJ369

9 ай бұрын

@@amyb5356 that was my response to another post above me.

That view is absolutely out of control. Well done Michael, great insights!

@garrettcapshaw3063

11 ай бұрын

Bonkers

@matl7560

11 ай бұрын

I love your show!!! You 3 guys need to take over the KZreads and make a Network!!

@realestatemindset

11 ай бұрын

​@matl7560 I'll be back in the sattle tomorrow morning. I got sick and it knocked me on my butt. 😅

@realestatemindset

11 ай бұрын

​@njerseydavid 😞 No. Offer wasnt accepted, the seller got upset and removed the listing. Not a single day goes by where I don't look and hunt. My goals are in place, and I know what I'm looking for. Nothing in my market is penciling out. Wedge, cash flow, PRICE etc

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Thank you Travis. The view is unbeatable ain’t it!

Both of you Gentlemen, have been very generous with your insights, and experience. Thank you both for what you do !!

@MrPicoli

11 ай бұрын

Couldn't agree more

I never felt the previous downturns at all. I was working as a nurse (RN) so wages were good. This time, however my husband and I are retired and living on social security. Thank God however that everything is paid for, house, land, and vehicles.

@fueledbymusic3

11 ай бұрын

Taxes will make you broke.

@ipenguin3918

11 ай бұрын

It's nice to be a Boomer, and not have deal with today's nonsense.

@VinceEnclaveJohnson

11 ай бұрын

Exactly!

Bought my house in NY in 2011 right at the bottom of the market. I’m a retired cop, 2 things we’re keeping me in NY 1. Wife makes good money( nurse) 2. We live in a good school district for our kids. Now NYS attorney General Lelitta James has come out and said school districts can not block Illegal immigrants from enrolling in their districts they do not need to provide documentation that they live within the district. That’s it, that’s game over for me I’m not going to pay $14,000 in property taxes to send my kids to school and pay for these Illegals kids also!!

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

I assume you will be selling then. And I don’t blame you.

@NuNugirl

11 ай бұрын

I hope you don’t live in Rockland County. Plenty of Law Enforcement and Firefighters live there. From what you are saying, the schools may all be heading to becoming like Ramapo Central School District. A complete disaster. Think about moving to Viera in Brevard County Florida. There are plenty of Medical Centers on The Space Coast. Rockland County Executive ED Day refused to take in what Mayor Adams was trying to send to live in a local Hotel. I’m sad to say it’s going to happen anyway.

@garymiller4141

11 ай бұрын

As far as I can see the Democratic party see a problem like illegal immigrants invading our country and instead of solving the problem at the boarder like Trump attempted, the Democrats do not take the position to solve the problem BUT assume the position to finnancially profit off the problem at the taxpayers expense to fill there pockets and friends of the party.

@MeadowDay

11 ай бұрын

Total abuse of the tax paying Americans, we are taxed to death, and now paying for everyone else too. This has to end.

@MAfanwoods37

11 ай бұрын

Thats only nyc. Wont be happening in affluent suburbs. Although hamptons schools have no white kids at all. Theyre a minority and get no minority protections. I agree though. Im at the brink with NY too. They will lose loads more population in next 5 years.

I perform about 2000+ home insurance inspections on the Treasure coast of Florida each year and have noticed I have not come across ONE new home buyer with a loan this year. Sales were booming in 21/22 and now the only buyers I meet are from New York and just sold a million dollar home and paid cash for a newly built home in a new development.

I’m from “back then” and here’s what WE WERE NOT DOING: eating out, using credit cards (paid cash for gas, checks at grocery store), having debt (other than house payment and car payment, most of us rented and drove used cars), buying big toys, extravagant travel and vacations (we went to family reunions for vacations, usually in our cars), tons of clothes and shoes/jewelry. We were not in debt, we lived within our means, had a job or two, had a savings account, and we were happy. I maintain that ppl’s spending habits, not living on a budget and life choices are main factors for todays financial woes.

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Thank you for saying that!! conveys my point exactly

@Pritha879

2 ай бұрын

Agree.. people are having one kid esp in Asian countries .. but they are those who have an elite kinda lifestyle.. esp urban India... More international vacations ... Latest car.. iphone.. American branded stuff .. laptops ..purses .. etc.. it is just ridiculous competition

These videos are incredibly helpful, I want more collabs with Nick

No market crash in Kansas City! A coworker put his house up for sale a week ago. It's already sold. But most of us are just waiting for the prices and/or interest rates to come down. Rent's still reasonable here in Overland Park KS, and we get to skip all of the homeowner costs, including snow, grass cutting & landscaping & buying all of that yard & gardening equipment. Maintenance is just an email to mgmt, and it's usually fixed same day. We have great rentals here. This is an affluent area, great schools, great place to walk dogs, etc. I pay $1,038 that includes my carport, two free washers & dryers next door, water, sewer, trash and heat paid. I only pay lights @ $750 annually for a one bedroom. Not thinking of moving coastal. Raised in Hawaii. There, you're living with live volcanos and tsunamis from ALL directions. Tsunamis hit in 1923, '46, 52, 57, 60 and 64, and they are due again. I can't live with the FL stress of being hit twice by a hurricane and/or tornado. You have to pick your safety tolerance.

Why the hell would I sell my 3% interest rate and replace it with 8%.

@roncomeau5388

2 ай бұрын

Do you hear the huge sucking sound, it's our treasonist politicians stealing our wealth,our middle class is being decimated!!! RC!!

@thomaskelly6472

20 күн бұрын

Because when people like you lose your jobs you won't have much of a choice.

inflation is going to stay awhile...the PPP loans every single person with a schedule C got boatloads of free money. the rich got richer

@the_derpler

11 ай бұрын

True, but they are not as bad as the real scumbags, students who took out loans. Pay them back butter cups.

Construction workers are aging too, might be another factor to consider, plus permitting isn't getting easier or cheaper.

If you call a housing market crash every single year, eventually, one day, you will be right.

@Jeff__M

11 ай бұрын

💯

@montymatthew1784

11 ай бұрын

Then get out there and buy buy buy

@black_n5492

11 ай бұрын

Exactly. They spent the last 24 months telling us it was coming any day now. It's going to come - it is the inevitable nature of the market - not some prophetic/analytical insight. So best thing is to keep making good decisions and pray that when the time is right, you have your ducks in a row. Trying to precisely time a crash is a fool's errand.

@edge918

11 ай бұрын

Michael knows what he's talking about

@deowahju

11 ай бұрын

That what these two are hoping. Most people would get scared and hold on buying houses.

I've been saying from the get-go that we don't even need a true unemployment spike for the housing market to correct. I've seen the plummeting salary ranges firsthand. Even if everyone who gets laid-off finds another job the very next day, the likelihood of them finding one that pays as much or more than their last job is very slim. Over the last 8 months, salary ranges for software development positions especially have plummeted.

@Coffeendonuts

11 ай бұрын

Median household income has jumped from 65k a year to 82k in may of 2023

@jodirowe2996

11 ай бұрын

My tech company froze salary raises, stopped bonuses. Some of the salary is paid in stocks…which are worth next to nothing

@ADG-pl7ur

10 ай бұрын

​@@Coffeendonutsthe jump in the household is 35 year old Jr getting a part time job.

Nick originally called for a housing crash to begin in late 2021. Since then his predictions have continued to be pushed back and he’ll never admit to being wrong. Sorry but without humility from him I can’t value his analysis

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

The timing and stuff like this is very hard to nail down. That’s why I’ve tried to stay away from giving hard and fast dates and predictions because we really don’t know.

@kkadam96

11 ай бұрын

Yup ... You listen to these crash bros, and you'll end up paying more.

@fgjf1079

11 ай бұрын

There has been tons of government intervention, which has delayed a housing crash, but it will come

@RADIUMGLASS

11 ай бұрын

Investor Jeremy Grantham has made predictions and they are being pushed back but the last three that he made he was right on.

Great question Michael about people over bidding on houses; when I was an appraiser this was a huge NO NO with lenders.

@colettespencer3357

11 ай бұрын

Yes, when it doesn't appraise...you have to come up with the cash difference

Nick mid 2021: Phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started. Nick early 2022: Phase 2 of the housing crash is just getting going Nick late 2022: this is what I call the almost last phase of this housing crash. Nick early 2023: Phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started. Nick mid 2023: Housing is going to crash no matter what, here’s a bright beautiful chart. Nick late 2023….phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started..

@alfonsosalinas3026

11 ай бұрын

For real. Gets so annoying I'm actually starting to side with realtors

@black_n5492

11 ай бұрын

It's all getting a bit silly with these guys. Hoping to capitalize on the broken clock being right twice a day phenomenon. When the crash eventually happens - because it's the inevitable nature of market cycles - you can be sure they'll be there to retroactively illustrate how whatever time it happens was the year they really meant all along.

@shaverlocal

11 ай бұрын

Why would there be a housing crash? Do these guys even understand the market at all?

@cross-eyedmary6619

11 ай бұрын

If Nick had won my trust I never would've discovered Michael haha Don't get me wrong. Easy to listen to, and very intelligent but you have to zoom far out and include global agendas at work to understand what's happening now. This is not the market of the past.

@bching2002

11 ай бұрын

If they knew the housing market, they should have predicted housing in 2021 and 2023 would be up or even flat.

Great interview listening to two great guys! I love when you two are together.

i love seeing two of my favorite channel hosts do shows together!

Imagine in 06-07 when all people had for news was mainstream media. That’s why so many people for caught off guard. This time around, you can get real info like from Nick and Michael which allows more nuanced decisions. Thanks for the daily videos! Another data point would be interesting to look at Nick is the average retiree saving? For example, my grandmother sister and her husband are about to sell their family home and plant on renting until they die (they are 75) because they cost of living had gone up so much they no longer have the choice. Their house is paid off and is about 1m$ so that should be enough to cover their living expenses till the end, but I wonder how much inventory will flood the market as I’m sure they can’t the only one! I also want to say that they were more than financially comfortable all their lives and still have about 100k in cash savings yet they are still in this boat!

The lower downpayments and high dti ratio tell me how much our wages have been devalued

I pay cash for everytning, and that's how I raised my children. My children haven't really bought anything yet, but they haven't borrowed any money either.

Great work guys! Really enjoy the content, love what you both do! Keep it going and thank you.

Great to see you both together!!!!

In reality it's a shame it takes a recession to handle greed and these greedy people never understand it will catch up to them eventually and the economy has a way of bringing these individuals down to earth and when these same greedy people get a taste of what they have done to others it can be an eye opening experience for them and right now greed is rampet and the piper is coming for them one by one it's going to be interesting this time next year

@jimbobarooney2861

11 ай бұрын

Totally agree, you just cant help some folk.

So good to see Nick on your show! He truly knows his data. Love him!

Holy crap I can’t believe this collaboration! I watched both of you every day when I’m leaving work, it’s like my heroine I gotta get it in. Lol

Good to see both of you together again. Enjoy your expertise on the economy and housing Market.

It is not gonna happen guys. Most people have very low mortgage rates. No need to sell at all. Worse case for them is to rent and make money or even sell. Yes, this time is different imho.

I just discovered this channel yesterday and can’t stop myself from binge watching. The videos do a great job explaining what I have been feeling in my gut regarding the housing market and the economic environment in general. I feel like I’m not alone anymore! I’m sure Michael mentioned it in his videos somewhere, but wonder if the resumption of student loan payments could be a triggering event that takes down the house of cards.

@Lisithedogwalker

11 ай бұрын

Thank you for supporting his channel.🙏🤍🙏

Two of my favorite guys. Love all the stats and especially the comparisons of the run ups of the mid 2000s to now. I work in large lot rural subdivisions. For the year or 2 before the pandemic I was asking the engineers and surveyors I work with if it felt like the run up to 2008. In geology the principle of "uniforminatarism " says that the past is the key to the present. Look at how certain types of rocks are being formed now tells you the ancient environments that similar rocks formed under. Similar thing here with debt to earning ratios, % of savings % of income sucked up by house payments ect. While we cant avoid what ever wild ride is in store we can at least try to be prepared

Great show guys ! Keep up the great work!

Hey guys! One more point that’s being missed here that a lot of people aren’t thinking about. The default rate and foreclosure #’s on homes are being manipulated, as well. Think about this. I’d venture to guess that the majority of people, who get to a point where they know they are heading towards foreclosure, will give in and sell to these lowball real estate investors companies, which would prevent those potential foreclose if Ron ever showing up in statistics as foreclosures. Basically, real estate investors can keep those numbers from looking bad by buying up all those homes at lowered prices. That’s exactly what’s going on right now. Look at how many REI’s started calling homeowners in Maui after the fire there. REI’s are going to be lowballing every financially squeezed homeowner out of their house. Foreclosure #’s may not change that dramatically for a while, even though people are actually losing their homes. Those people are also getting conveniently put back into the rental market pool, which additionally helps the real estate investor. It’s a win win for them.

These guys are so smart I have to replay sections of the video multiple times just so I can process what’s being said.

Both of my favorite peeps together! It’s a dream to see Nik and Michael together on this initiative! You guys are simply amazing! Thank you for always being there to guide us though this market volatility and transition! 👏🏽👍🏽

Nick has been saying that the housing market will crash for 3 years now. In that time, houses have appreciated 50%. So even if the market crashes tomorrow and houses go down 20-30%, that's still doesn't offset the 50% gains. It's highly unlikely the market will crash this bad.

@marcl7307

11 ай бұрын

Very good point! Drives me nuts that these people keep banging the ‘08 crash v2 drum and people are putting their lives on hold for a deal that may or may not happen. On avg, prices went down 20% nationally from 07 to 09. It then took 6 years to recover nationally. Markets are very localized and I think there are going to be people holding out for that 20, 30, 40 % decline and they’ll miss out on providing a home for their families. Speculating on timing/deals is okay if your looking at an investment property but I don’t think that is wise for a primary home.

@genarolegorreta3418

10 ай бұрын

Nick is the Nouriel Roubini (Dr. Doom) of real estate. Yet, I enjoy his alarmist-style.

@ChrisJarzyk

10 ай бұрын

Thought it was longer. The kid is all click bate,

@marknewton6984

5 ай бұрын

Correction...not crash.

I know many in these crash channels hate me for saying or predicting short term future for real estate. I see many of your arguments like 'last time this data point was this bad it was in 2008' , but sorry to say that is not the argument to make., 2023 is not 2008. There is only way home prices can ever come down is when inventory increases however it may be . Unless that happens prices are going to be stable. Unemployment and foreclosure is not even worth discussing here cause those are unlikely events in present scenario. (Yeah I know crash bros going berserk here, only few understand why). I am doubling down on home prices to increase by atleast 5-8% by next year, As you already pointed out home owners now are Just rich., there is no one who wants to sell. Savings - Not an important point for home crash. All I have to say is today is the best time to buy. dont wait till next year when home prices increase and so will mortgage rates.

@WelcomeInc

11 ай бұрын

Bingo.

@brianlord1232

11 ай бұрын

Wrong!!! ..😂😂🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

@straightdrive6192

11 ай бұрын

@@brianlord1232 so you believe home prices come down ? I believe the opposite ,and intact doubling down .

@brianlord1232

11 ай бұрын

@@straightdrive6192 yep!! Every indicator outside the Residential RE market is falling apart. Including globally.. only a short matter of time before the fake appreciation blows apart. But hey man go for it..

@WelcomeInc

11 ай бұрын

@@brianlord1232 Reality has already proven him right , Renter.

I have access to the numbers at the #2 lender in USA. More than 50% of all loans for last 2 years have been either VA = $0 down, FHA = 3.5% down, And 2-1 Buydown loans (like Nick said short term ARMs). I was a lender in 2000-2012 Basiaclly these 3 loans have replaced the subprime crises. I say a day of reckoning is coming

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Thank you for sharing that I’m going to quote that in a future video

@jayneweaver8695

11 ай бұрын

@onereelvision8428, great comment! USDA is also another 100% down and for investment property the DSCR loans debt-service coverage ratio are another way around strict guidelines with low down payments.

@gemechannel2899

11 ай бұрын

When 😂

@UneducatedGeologist

11 ай бұрын

​@@MichaelBordenaroYou are welcome.

@UneducatedGeologist

11 ай бұрын

​@@jayneweaver8695Yes those two probably represent another 5%-8%

OMG! Best surprise ever!! So excited to see both of you together 😀Perfect way to end the day!

I'm in a small town in a low cost of living area, every day I check Zillow and watching the sold homes has been pretty interesting. I've been seeing homes stay on the market longer, sometimes multiple price cuts and then often it still sells for 20k or so under the last asking price. Some desirable and well-priced homes are still selling quick and over asking, but otherwise its a totally different ballgame than a few years ago.

@jayneweaver8695

11 ай бұрын

I wish I lived there too. Live in Montana and we used to be a small town, invaded by California and Texas, 44k in 2020 and in some months 6k new residents, it's rough. Our home prices have more than doubled and rent has tripled in 2 years and 8 months. Looking for another state, small town. : o)

@MeadowDay

11 ай бұрын

Texas invaded too, our small country town is now a city, wildlife, trees and ranches…all gone in three years. Soul sucking 😰

@jayneweaver8695

11 ай бұрын

@@MeadowDay i bet Texas is just like here, non-stop, they just keep coming. It is like a nightmare and you don't wake up. "They" Californians and Texans stay and here comes their friends and family. UGH!

@TS-rd7oy

11 ай бұрын

Same, but with northeasterners in the Tampa area. Totally ruined the area. I fled in 2021.

@colettespencer3357

11 ай бұрын

​@@jayneweaver8695California native...California was once wide open space...irony being people invaded California from other states and destroyed it...I think beautiful places will always be discovered, invaded, and destroyed. Social media doesn't help

Ha, awesome seeing you guys together, I watch both of you constantly.

🔥4 min. in & you guys are in tandem, great questions(that NO ONE else tackles), great response(that NO ONE else deep-dives in). You guys make a great team, while simultaneously having your own channel/style/format/real estate info/real estate -true- data.🙏thanks for all of the hardwork you guys put in💪

Do you think that condos will be the first home vs. townhouses since they are usually cheaper than townhouses? What percentage drop in prices constitutes a "CRASH"? Is it 20 or 25%? Or is it year over year drops?

Comparing the housing market in 2023 to say, 1975, is like comparing the housing market of 1985, when I bought my first house, to the housing market of 1937. Both are 48 years apart. The comparison lacks credibility.

Thank you both for great video. Very intelligent conversation and I appreciate every minute of it.

A house in maine that sold in 2015 for 109k, then sold in 2021 for 120k, just went pending for 399k!! People moved to maine in droves paying high class prices for the locals homes where most are in poverty. It’s insane!

There is no traditional crash coming. What is coming are continued strategic targeted maneuvers to keep home ownership out of as many people's hands as possible. We will RENT everything and be HAPPY about it.

@questionauthority7377

11 ай бұрын

another genius babbling

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Anything is possible

@cross-eyedmary6619

11 ай бұрын

Sorry the truth offends@@questionauthority7377

This is may be the best collaboration ever! Thank You for making this video. I watch the both of you everyday. THIS WAS IMPRESSIVE

I have been seeing some fantastic collaborations lately. Thanks, Michael. This is great. I have learned so much from you two. ❤

I watch every video from both of you. Wonderful to see you exchanging ideas!

People can either keep paying rising rent rates, or choose to buy. Simple as that.

@marknewton6984

5 ай бұрын

Buy.

Awesome, my two favorite real estate youtubers!!! Nick's been in California. Had a feeling you two would hook up. Lots of valuable insight here thank you Nick and Michael!

my two real estate doomers in one video. perfect

It's only because of lack of inventory, crash bros say. As if inventory/supply is 1 of 37 different factors, with 36 of them pointing to a crash, and only tight inventory keeping prices up. Yet, the only two things that determine price are demand and supply, it's only 2 factors, not 37. If supply is tight, then prices will stay up. Words like "absurd", "tremendous", "lowest, lowest", accompanied by lots of hand waving, are meaningless prose. It only depends on supply and demand, nothing else matters. Supply is low, demand is high. No crash.

@jaydeeare285

11 ай бұрын

Yes. I have often pointed out the same thing "oh prices are 'only' up because of low supply". Lol. Like, really ? Thanks Einstein.

I love Nick he’s for the people! He gave me so much hope when home prices were going crazy. some KZreadrs were recommending us poor people, just move to poor people land. Yet here we are. All these greedy investors are going to pound sand 😈

@fiddleg8r

11 ай бұрын

Me too! Nick gives me hope for our country. He is smart and gets it!

The problem I see is the second rates drop even a little bit the bidding wars return. There just isnt enough supply out there (thanks to blackrock, etc) unless you are able to relocate to someplace nobody wants to live in the middle of nowhere. Otherwsie, rates drop, demand spikes, and then prices stay up... there's just so much pent up demnad. Half of all millennials are living with their parents (due to unafforability) and as soon as they can afford, they are going to jump at the chance to enter the market.

Hey guys! Soo cool to see you together!

Love these guys! Thanks for the clarity!

love this collab! two folks i follow!

The most likely scenario is that home owners and builders will continue to benefit from their monopoly and keep supply low. They don't need or want housing sales to bounce back. They are making record profits. When they have to buy, they can just pay cash. It's over, we have become a nation of renters, is time to move.

@brianlord1232

11 ай бұрын

Oh ok..😂😂😂😂🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️..

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Most homeowners do not have the cash to buy.

@MustbeTheBassest

11 ай бұрын

@@MichaelBordenaro and yet, I just read that around 1/3 of current home sales are paid in cash. Even if most homeowners don't have enough equity they're still not going to sell at the same time. The supply will continue to be low for the next decade and the existing problems will only be compounded and become the new normal... It already has.

@prd004.2

11 ай бұрын

Rents are spiraling out of control too.

@petsbud2160

11 ай бұрын

​@@MustbeTheBassestyou know what sucks is I agree with this. The most obvious outcome usually ends up correct. The most obvious outcome is things going to shit for the average person. After seeing so many videos, this feels like the new normal. There is nothing really stopping it from being so. Enough people make enough money though to keep the overinflated markets going and that's all that matters. Everyone else just gets by. I hope we're wrong

Just found your channel not more than an hour ago. Seen a few of your videos. Great content! Totally enjoy your scenic filming style. You've earned another subscriber. :) Keep up the good work!

You both have great channels. I really enjoyed this video. It's great to listen to both of you bounce your options of the real estate market off each other.

Great collaboration. I enjoy both of your channels and gain a lot of knowledge from you both. I believe ball outs will happen when the official market crash happens. I believe the market in CA is already crashing. I’ve been following tons of house reductions, & people selling for less than they purchased the home a year ago on Zillow and other sites. Thanks for always keeping it real and giving us your honest opinion. Best wishes from North Bay Area. Take a trip down highway 37 to the other side of the North Bay. Great trails for you to walk over here as well. Cheers my friend

Completely unserious creators. At 8:30 Nick says that people have higher credit scores today than in 2008. Then he says this is because people have learnt to game the system. Truth: people are financially in better shape than they were in 2008. One reason for this is that the unemployment rate is very low in 2023, while it was very high in 2008.

It's called a shit load of liquidity in the system that the first round and a half of interest rate hikes has just started drying up. How many rounds of interest rate hikes do we have left to hit and dry up the liquidity or the lag affect? 5 or 6 still left to hit as each round take 8-16 months to hit the economy. We are in stage 5 of the lead up to a recession and we always have a rally before the recession. 1) Inflation, 2) interest rate hikes, 3) demand falls, 4) Price cuts to make up for the lack of demand, luring everyone into thinking that inflation is under control, 5) job openings fall (poor JOLTS report), 6) rise in unemployment, 7) recession over. In between 6 and 7 the market crashes and capitulates.

Watched to the end. Thank you; you act as an amazing team.

I’m a big fan of both channels. Keep up the good work, guys!

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Thanks!!

@davidgee6110

11 ай бұрын

I agree 💯👍 big fan for both!

Oh man! Once I saw Nick doing more walk and talks I thought he may do a vid with Michael. Then I saw they were both in CA, then I knew it was inevitable.

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Here we are!

Nice to see you guys together again.

Two legends!Great content,please do more!

It was nice seeing you guys walking together. I noticed Nick walking the other day and I thought wow he's doing Mikes gig, now I see them together. WHOOP WHOOP! Now you guys should grab Economic Ninja. Hahaha

We are in a cycle like 1975 and 1989. Nobody could afford to buy.

Love when you two collaborate! It’s double truth! Thanks for keeping it real.

Recent sub market crashes like Austin City Limits where housing prices are still inflated and not a good deal.

Guys, it’s all BS theory. Tooo many IFs

If you keep saying "housing market crash happens" for YEARS, of course, it will happen some point.

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Remember this. Robert Shiller, who is the inventor of the case Shiller home price index predicted there would be a housing crash all the way back in 2004 didn’t happen till 2008.

@House_hacker_619

11 ай бұрын

I bought my 2nd house in San Diego last August with 4.375. By the time crash happen I already pay it off 😂

@jacinedelarosa6302

11 ай бұрын

​@@MichaelBordenaroSo is your advice to wait ANOTHER four years to see if you "might" be right then ? After waiting two years already ? That would put the average person at about 150k in the hole in rent payments that could have been spent on their own mortgage and wealth building , instead of further enriching their landlord. That's your advice ? Wait 6 years ?

Hi Michael and Nick, Thanks for another informative video. You two are the most trustworthy with the real estate market information. 💕

Always super informative when you both do a vid.

You and Nick are literally the only KZread guys I watch about the housing market. It was really great seeing you both together today!

@michaeldobosh9640

10 ай бұрын

If I would listen two of them or with similar topics I would miss 5-6 years paying my own house which has payment less than rent.

Inflation doesn't normally return to deflation. It is unlikely that rates will go down anytime in several years. If that happens then homes are just going to be somethign most people cannot buy. Renting needs to be made more affordable by incentivising unique rentals that allow someone to afford the rent. This will mean SMALL apartments. Regular houses will be a luxury.

@Coffeendonuts

11 ай бұрын

Basically how Europe is. Only about 30% of Western Europeans own their own home.

@yvesgingras1475

11 ай бұрын

This would result a even more people leaving the country tho, without any good social service and expensive livestyle, all the small worker will be encourage to go elswhere. This is excatly whats happening to Canada, we have a huge brain drain cause of the housing crisis.

@destroya3303

11 ай бұрын

That doesn't make sense. Economies always seek equilibrium. If prices stay high and nobody sells (which I don't think even could happen), builders will increase supply by building more affordable homes.

@joefunk76

11 ай бұрын

@@destroya3303They’re already building more homes. I don’t know about “affordable”, though. Builders are greedy AF and, as that, they exist to soak you for every dime you’re worth, not to provide relief to buyers. 😂

@destroya3303

11 ай бұрын

@@joefunk76 If they aren't "affordable" now they will have to be eventually, if they want buyers. People are more mobile now than ever. With remote work, if an area is too pricey they can pack up and move, and let that "luxury" apartment complex or condo rot.

I remember watching you when you had 5k subscribers. Thank you for sharing the great content over the years. Happy for your success!

Wow. A lot of interesting information in this presentation. Awesome to see you two together on the same show again! I've learned so much from both of you.

No crash as long as the stock market continues to boom. Anyone with even a modest portfolio is making bank these days. Paychecks pay the bills; the stock market builds your wealth.

@brianlord1232

11 ай бұрын

Oh ok..🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️😂😂.. wrong!!

@MichaelBordenaro

11 ай бұрын

Looks like that party might be coming to an end as well

@jiyushugi1085

11 ай бұрын

@@brianlord1232 Easy way to check: Ask some well-off people how much of their wealth comes from the stock market...... Or, look at the 5~10 year charts for TSLA, NVDA, AI, Apple, or even the returns on typical index funds. They're all right there on Yahoo Finance. It ain't rocket science. Very few people become wealthy from their jobs, they become wealthy by investing.

@jiyushugi1085

11 ай бұрын

@@MichaelBordenaro Hope springs eternal.... (Very much enjoy your walking tours, though.)

What really irritates me is how they tax the living fk out of everyone over anything. And it never ends. In Canada and other places they don't tax for gambling winnings. Here in the US they want to stick everybody in jail for every little meaningless law they create,tax people even more ,then punish everyone to death! Literally!

Always going to be good when you both are in one video (again)! Thanks fellas!!