Kim Jong-Un’s decision to abandon the goal of peaceful reunification came as a huge shock. For over fifty years, the two Koreas have been committed to eventually ending the Cold War division that has kept them apart. But do you think this is just Kim recognising that unity won’t happen and finding a way to tell his people, as some suggest? Or is this a sign that he no longer sees negotiated unification as an option but is now actively preparing for war, as other commentators believe? And what about South Korea? Could it manage reunifcation? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

@FlamingBasketballClub

3 ай бұрын

When are you going to make a appearance on EconTalk podcast?

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

I’d have to be asked first. :-)

@madman5042

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay So that you can delete comments and ban people for holding an opinion that is in favour of NK? 🤡🤡 You're a funny man James.

@bilic8094

3 ай бұрын

Is North Korea less isolated today than previous years that's what it seems as we see they're trading with Russia and most likely China.

@HalfLifeHalfDead

3 ай бұрын

@@bilic8094 Yeah, that's been the case since the inception of this division. China in particular is one of the main reasons why North Korea still exists.

My view was that the true goal of the North Korean regime since the 2000s was never reunification but rather just the preservation of the North Korean regime. If reunification threatened the North Korean regime, even if it were a situation favorable to North Korea, North Korea would not accept it.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks. I completely agree. It is all about regime preservation at this stage. But it is interesting that the policy of unification has been so publicly ditched. This is about making a statement. The question is for what purpose?

@Pilgrim_uk

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay Maybe it could be something as simple as the Kim regime are fed up playing the western diplomatic game. He knows western democracies are never going to accept this regime and maybe Putin convinced him of that. Surround yourself with regimes who can support and keep you in power.

@sayidadam3728

3 ай бұрын

I think, their state of economy are more fragile than we think of. They want to trade some barggaining chip for economyc support with rocket man style like always.

@eoinoconnell185

3 ай бұрын

Precisely. Too many at the top depend upon the regimes continuance. They know they'll be ''Ceaușescu'd'' the moment it falls. At this point it's only their self-preservation which is keeping the old order in place.

@CANNNIBALIX

2 ай бұрын

let's talk about fake Korean regime with brutal fascist dictatorship setting precedens in the 40s since Jeju island protests and the consecutive events leading to a destructive war mandated by so called United Nations back in the day, till today's status of some weird sex cult having hold of the previous to current leader further escalating on behalf of US foreign policy

Isn't it perfectly rational for the Kim dynasty to want partition to become permanent? There is no way any reunification agreement would keep the PDRK regime in power.

@zeytelaloi

3 ай бұрын

The problem is that being in a permanent state of conflict is a great way to stay in power.

@jwhan2086

3 ай бұрын

The problem is, as long as the Korean division lasts, he has to worry that his people will repeatedly compare his rule to South Korean democracy. The very existence of a democratic system in the South itself is the greatest security threat to his regime. And that's why it was a huge shock for North Korea observers that he said he wants to abandon the goal of unification.

@zeytelaloi

3 ай бұрын

@@jwhan2086 No, whether he pursues a policy of reunification or not his rule will always be compared to South Korean democracy.

@jwhan2086

3 ай бұрын

@@zeytelaloi Of course. My point is, however, it would be far more important for Kim in the North WHO compares his rule to WHAT.

@seneca983

3 ай бұрын

@@jwhan2086 "The very existence of a democratic system in the South itself is the greatest security threat to his regime." To me, it would seem that a war started by the North would be an even bigger threat.

As a South Korean, Kim Jong-un's recent declaration seems to be for the younger generation of North Korea. The younger generation of North Korea, the Jangmadang generation, is fanatically fond of South Korean dramas and songs. In North Korea, watching South Korean songs or dramas is so influential that it can land you in prison. I already think the regime war is over in the younger generation of North Korea. What they want is unification with South Korea. If there is a family living in South Korea after defecting from North Korea, the family left behind in North Korea, although suppressed by the North Korean government, is envied by the North Korean people. From Kim Jong-un's perspective, it is a huge crisis for the regime, and it is a declaration to the North Korean people that there will be no unification.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks so much for the comment. That’s really interesting to hear. I had wondered how much secret exposure they had to the South. It seems like this a lot more than one might expect. I can see why the Kim regime would be incredibly nervous about this. Still, it is an interesting declaration for him to make. It really does seem that it is about personal regime survival. An autocratic regime wants to preserve itself. :-)

@Dave102693

3 ай бұрын

Is that why they are bringing public executions back?

Pyongyang isn't looking for unification anymore, they're looking for survival in the 21st century.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Indeed. But it’s interesting that Kim made such an official announcement. No one thought it was realistic. But he has formally killed it off. It’s unclear why.

@aequitas8749

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay , Kim Jong-un is rallying support from the Pyongyang elites and the politburo of the Worker's Party of Korea (WPK). A scapegoat (Seoul) is what can get everyone behind him and keep loyalty in check. No one in the world believes unification is feasible at this point without the collapse of either Koreas. Kim is trying to invigorate that notion into Pyongyang. Therefore, when Beijing orders the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to conquer Taiwan it will be an opportunity for Pyongyang to consider conquering Seoul.

@czarquetzal8344

3 ай бұрын

​@@JamesKerLindsayNietzsche's philosophy is important here. War and danger are sometimes necessary.

@alexm9104

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay may be 'cause of Putin's war and weak answer to it from EU and US. Not only NC - there're other dictatorships lifts ther heads nowdays.

@julianpignat9095

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay talking to the USa is impossable, my remarque the the usa must leave korea

Some years ago I learned that the South Korean parliament had tables and seats reserved for N Korean representatives in case unification were to happen the next day. Unsure whether it is still the case.

@jwhan2086

3 ай бұрын

Oh, really? I thought they might forget that whenever I saw them fighting for Gerrymandering. If they still remember that, it would be good for the country.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Interesting. It’s quite common that divided countries maintain certain features like this a nod to eventual reunification.

@theotherohlourdespadua1131

3 ай бұрын

I remember France accidentally kept physical seats in the National Assembly for their nonexistent overseas departments that bolted from them in the 1960's like Djibouti. They didn't remove those seats until 2003 through an electoral reform...

@tng2057

3 ай бұрын

I recall I learned this during the Park Chung Hee / Chun Do Won era - ironically the during the ‘hawkish’ era.

@jwhan2086

3 ай бұрын

@@tng2057 "Hawkish" does not mean they are against unification. "Hawkish" or Conservatives in South Korean context, means they think South Korea has to have 1. South-led unification, 2. if necessary by force, and 3. the end state must be the same or similar to the current South Korean system. "Doves" or Liberal/Progressives, on the other hand, want unification through 1. a bilateral approach, 2. only through negotiation. And 3. in the end state, there might be some room for the North sides. So military authoritarians had such a plan for North Korean people to vote in a general election because they had in mind to absorb the North into the South Korean system. I don't know if Democrats have the same or similar idea.

As a South Korean, I see it as Kim's effort for self-preservation. He has a severe health issue, and his heir to the throne is still very young. North Koreans are increasely exposed to South Korean Kpop dramas and music and starting to realize North Korea is not the heaven on Earth. If Kim dies in a few years, North Korea can collapse very soon.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks. How do people feel about a collapse of the North? Is the South ready for it? Or do you think China will immediately step in, as many suggest?

@DavidSolomon-cb1ik

3 ай бұрын

Hello James KerLinsey, The North gets upset everytime they hold war games on the Peninsula. It’s about the same effect as a group of Rap or Hard Rock musicians holding car rallies a few blocks from the Pentagon or 10 Downing Avenue. Or better, a half contigion of armed IRA or Scottish Independence protestors showing up in half tracks and armed with MPG’s, RPG ‘s, semiautomatic rifles, and all practicing war games of some kind walking the streets with Caucasians welding Medieval Coat of Arms and Swords. I don’t think the leaders would see this as a friendly demonstration showing peace and love. Would the law enforcement? I don’t think so.

@redpipola

3 ай бұрын

@@DavidSolomon-cb1ik north Korea is not gonna collapse lmao

@eoinoconnell185

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay The North's collapse is inevitable. The best solution is for the South to move in and for America to move out (of Korea completely). China's biggest fear is not a unified Korea, but a unified Korea with American troops on it's border. And in fairness, who can blame them ?

@Dragoncam13

2 ай бұрын

@@eoinoconnell185it’ll be awhile before America ever moves out and even if they do Korea would still be an American puppet state

East Germany and North Korea had close relations and the STASI internally called North Korean demands paranoid. Imagine even the STASI thinks you are too paranoid. They demanded their students to be isolated after classes

Does anyone else remember how for about five minutes after Kim Jong Un took power we wondered if he would be a more progressive leader than his father?

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks. I certainly remember that. There was a lot of talk about how he had been educated abroad and that he liked Western culture.

@julianpignat9095

3 ай бұрын

he Know the western world and the USA very well

@np4029

3 ай бұрын

@@julianpignat9095 Simping for Russia is considered to be a strong indicator of a toxic personality. Simping for North Korea is considered to be a strong indicator of low intellect.

@st.altair4936

3 ай бұрын

He seems to be more progressive. Has never supported the government that's currently supporting a genocide.

@user-un5qv3dc9n

2 ай бұрын

He tried. He actually implemented some laws that would reform the socoety to a more market-based economy, and started taking measures to open the country to the world. But soon after that he realized progression would mean the end of his regime and maybe even his life.

In a weird way, North Korea being poor, isolated, and antiquated is as powerful tool to prevent invasion as the military. Most of the people are economically hinderence and it would be the largest reconstruction project in world history to bring them to relatively modest standards. Not to mention the immense self inflicted environmental damage.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

What a fantastic point! I hadn’t thought of it this way. By accident or design, the Kim Dynasty has indeed made North Korea essentially indigestible. The question is whether in their paranoia they truly understand this? But that is certainly the reality. Essentially the best hope of reunification is the emergence of a figure who will start to change the conversation on the North and open it up, slowly at first, but then gathering pace. A sort of Gorbachev figure with glasnost and perestroika. But it would have to be preceded by the end of the Kim dynasty. I just can’t see this happening under them. They have too much at stake. It needs to be a leader who doesn’t see a hereditary succession.

@BigRedDragonFan

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay I don’t think it was intentional. Nk after the Korean War built their entire economy around heavy industry and relied on energy and fertilizer from Russia. Whenever times were tough, North Korea would play China against Russia. When the Soviet Union collapsed so did their economy. People tend to forget North Korea was richer for about 30 years after the Korean War. As for reunification , I really don’t see it happening by choice. The two koreas are very culturally distinct today. The Kim dynasty is all about staying in power and butchers any potential replacements (especially from China). None of the parties could afford it. And the families that were separated during the war have had no contact. I think the only ways they reunify is war or collapse and the more likely scenario is China installs a puppet.

@larzkruber822

2 ай бұрын

If you make them rich, they will demand more, if you keep them poor, they will beg you for food

My former teacher during my master's degree was from Korea. He hoped for unification and was sure that it was going to happen in his life. I agreed with him. My idea with agreeing with him was, that the PRC is facing a very hard time to keep NK floating. The South's development within military equipment keeps widening the gap between them, this will shake the NK leadership + that Kim is going to die, and then we might have a crisis. If it even gets to that point. My fear is that NK is going to strike first and then gets rolled over after they have completely destroyed Seoul.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks so much. This is certainly a really worrying scenario. As the regime collapses, it decides to strike out. It will also be interesting to see if Kim can manoeuvre his daughter into a position to replace him, or whether his sister launches a palace coup against her niece. Or if the senior leadership refuse to accept a woman and instead select another leader.

First of all, peaceful reunification has always been mostly an aspiration. Secondly, Korean peninsula historically had three distinct kingdoms with very different origins that trace back to 1200 - 1100 BC. A unified Korea emerged around 14 - 15 century. The peninsula had much longer history of being divided than unified. So the announcement is not entirely out of historical norm.

@CaptainAmerica2k7

2 ай бұрын

You probably meant 10th century? Koryo unified the Korean peninsula during that period.

Yeah been like this for almost 80 years now, any change must come from within

The current president of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, assumed office on May 10, 2022. On May 28, 2022, CNN reported that Yoon declared "the age of appeasing North Korea is over". Furthermore, Korean newspapers reported on May 30, 2022 that Korean military had labelled North Korea "our enemy", a departure from previous "a real military threat".

@zandaroos553

3 ай бұрын

I was thinking that, I’d imagine that Korea’s current right-wing populist admin probably is facilitating a breakdown in relations.

@johnwhodat8135

2 ай бұрын

Previous administrations, especially the democratic party, known for offering n.k with food and medical aids whenever n.k rattles saber, but this current administration is not fazed by their so called saber rattling..and not providing any aid in hopes of calming them down for awhile.

Wasn’t the thought of reunification on the part of the North Korean leadership always going to occur on their terms - i.e. that South Korea would eventually become part of the territory ruled over by the North Korean leadership?

@rathersane

3 ай бұрын

I remember reading about one northern proposal during the Kim Jong-Il era where the two Koreas would unite, but each would keep its own system of government. I don’t, however, remember any sort of satisfactory explanation of how this would have been feasible.

@halfbakedproductions7887

2 ай бұрын

In recent years North Korean state media often referred to South Korea as "south Korea". Note the lower-case s.

Great video Professor. This change in policy along with North Korea shelling the waters of a South Korean island which lies within what most observers would classify as North Korean territorial waters kicked off 2024 with a bang on the peninsula. With the Juche monarchy on its 2nd heir who is not in the best of health, I believe that any collapse of the DPRK will happen as a result of instability before the coronation of the Party’s third heir. Worth noting is that there’s not a clear male to take over when Jong Eun is incapacitated. Kim’s powerful sister, Yo Jong, is a candidate. North Korea watchers also noted last year the introduction of Jong Eun’s young daughter into the public eye.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks so much. The announcement is a very interesting development. It could mean so many things. But you are right about the regime. Kim will want you to preserve it. However, there is a very important question about succession. As you note, his sister is an crucial figure. It was noticeable that when he met with Trump, she was the one handling the documents with Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State. But the emergence of his daughter is also a key factor. Many have suggested that North Korea might not accept either. It is apparently a deeply Patriarchal society.

I have a ton of respect for Prof JKL. The background and context analysis was very good. It is only that tackling the question only comes up around minute 11. This deserves a follow up video, also to address potential scenarios with risks and opportunities alike. For example, could the declaration advance efforts towards a formal end of the war or to formalize boundaries? Could it simply lead NK to greater isolation, seeking a more defensive posture? Also what is the SK response? Just my two cents on great content. Definitely do a follow up video.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks. Like so much with Korea and the Kim regime, we are in the realm of speculation as to what it means. I didn’t want to go too far down that route. But I will certainly try to follow up when we have more information. In the meantime, it was a good chance to make a video on the division of Korea - a video I had wanted to do for ages. The only disappointing thing is that like my previous one on Korea a year or so ago, it is doing extremely badly. The number of views is unbelievably low. I think that people just aren’t terribly interested in the topic, for whatever reason. (And I didn’t want to go overboard with scaremongering. Not that it would have done much good. I notice that another larger channel had a Korea video yesterday that focused on a conflict, and that is also doing badly for its standards.) Still, the viewing time is really good for those who watch it. This is clearly a video for the channel connoisseurs! :-)

Im curious how did the North vs South languages diverge? Isn't it the same dialect?

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Apparently, there has been some interesting divergence. They are still mutually intelligible, but it seems that there have been some stark changes. And the North uses a form that sounds very archaic. I suppose it makes sense, especially given the South’s wider international interactions. But it would be great to hear more about this from any Korean viewers.

@IAmTheOnlyLucas

3 ай бұрын

I’ve lived in South Korea on and off since 2019 and speak the language. The language in the RoK is full of English loan words, they are incredibly commonplace. The DPRK officially purged their language of all Japanese and English loan words but I’ve read that there are lots of Russian bits leftover in the North.

@CalCalCal6996

3 ай бұрын

I've heard it compared to French from France and French in Quebec. They are mutually intelligible and most of the important stuff is the same but depending on how thick the accent, you might have some issues with understanding every word.

@AthanasiosJapan

3 ай бұрын

In DPRK, the language has few foreign words. Also, the pronunciation is more conservative.

@sarah_yang

3 ай бұрын

My Korean is very limited and whenever I try to watch Korean TV in the US, I find it very difficult to understand anything. They speak too fast & the accent sounds strange. Though my family is from the southern part of the peninsula, it’s definitely much easier for me to understand North Koreans speaking Korean.

Very helpful as usual.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thank you so much. Really appreciated!

amazing video, i love the way you talk!!

@JamesKerLindsay

2 ай бұрын

Thank you so much! :-)

James, in regards to to North Korean collapse scenario, do you think China would send in troops to prop up some friendly regime, even if the regime is incredibly unpopular? Given that N Koreans are constantly reminded of the horrors of the Korean War, would they want a S Korean regime to rule them? I think China likes the status quo, and would want to orevent that, but theyd also not want a clash between Chinese ans S Korean troops due to their relations with the US. What do you think James?

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks Scott. Greta point. China might well see an overall advantage to stepping in to prop up the regime, especially given alternative is the entire peninsula coming under a pro-West government. But the wider implications of a Northern collapse would be huge. And you’re right, the South might be wholly unable to impose order, even if it tried.

@douglassun8456

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay It seems like the CCP has kind of a dysfunctional relationship with North Korea. They need North Korea as a buffer against the contagion that pro-Western, democratic Asian countries represent, but the North Koreans cause them a lot of grief. They also know that North Korea could turn their nukes on them just as easily as they could on South Korea, and they're a much closer target than the US. As for South Korea, I heard a while ago that they have set aside an emergency fund for rebuilding the North if reunification ever happens. It seems like they have few illusions, after having seen German reunification and how that turned out to be more of a hassle than West Germany expected.

@skeetrix5577

3 ай бұрын

​@@JamesKerLindsayoh man, if the north collapsed I'd honestly imagine it being the biggest deal of this century. so many unknowns and so much potential for conflict

@John-.-Smith

3 ай бұрын

North Korea is closer to Russia than China.

@edwardsnowden8821

3 ай бұрын

​@@JamesKerLindsaysame way USA opposed a reunification of mainland China and Taiwan, why the hell should China maintain western interests by having a Korean reunification that favours us interest same way a Chinese disunity favours us inters

Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks so much, Peter. Have a great weekend!

Super video, nice. History is something that is passionate just like geography, good job.

@JamesKerLindsay

2 ай бұрын

Thank you very much indeed!

Very well done! I have just suscribed.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thank you. I really appreciate it. A very warm welcome to the channel!

Great 👍

@JamesKerLindsay

2 ай бұрын

Thank you!

This was a very interesting analysis on the DPRK and South Korea. Good for thought.

For the past few years, my understanding was that a complete unification was impossible due to widening cultural and economic differences. The north would end up in a similar position as former East Germany but worse. Some form of confederation may technically be possible but that will require someone to make major concessions.

I would have a more positive outlook on this development than you. Finally, all UN members recognize South Korea as a sovereign state. What is wrong with that? And if, in the future (likely under a democratic government in the North), both Koreas decide to merge, there isn't a single international law that would prevent it, correct?

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks. There are very few UN members that don’t recognise it. And none that really matter anymore. (In fact, I think it’s only North Korea. The P5 all recognised it when they allowed it to join the UN in 1991.) But you’re right. There’s certainly no legal impediment to peaceful unification. But I think the worry is that all this is Kim threatening to launch a war, especially given his growing alliance with Moscow.

Good video! I know you're using the word "democracy" for SK as shorthand in comparison to DPRK, but between the chaebol oligarchs, years of government corruption, and the preceding rule under a military dictatorship, I wouldn't put much emphasis on SK being a beacon of democracy. That's not to say DPRK is either, of course

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks so much. I did try to note that the South was in fact authoritarian until the 1980s. I couldn’t delve too deeply into this as it wasn’t the focus of the video, but you’re absolutely right! We tend to think that it was always a democracy. It certainly wasn’t.

@seanandernacht800

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay fair enough! Totally understand wanting to stay focused on the topic at hand

I think it also opens up further diplomatic solutions. There can be no progress as long as the West insists that denuclearisation must be the first step. The fait of Iraq and Libya on one side and the Ukraine on the other side shows that giving up such aspirations is bad. Other changes must be allowed to be the first step. PS: Yemeni unification didn't really work well lol

New to the channel & just subscribed. Thanks for the video 🤙🏼

reading between the lines, could this be a pivot to unification by force rather than "peaceful" means?

5:09 'along the 38th parallel' ..Not correct. The DMZ(DeMilitarized Zone) is not the 38th parallel. But 4 km wide belt; the center line was the bloody front line in July, 1953. (I am a South Korean; and the following thought is not a typical Korean one.) Basically this is a game between SK and US on one side and China on the other. NK is only a proxy or an agent. The ruling clique's Raison d'être is: 1) Serve the CCP, China 2) Make themselves irreplaceable ( in the eyes of the CCP) The existence of SK itself makes them even more irreplaceable in two ways. First, when a small drop of freedom or idea of an alternative is given to the people, the situation would become very, very volatile since people have known the success story of SK. Second, if China pushes this spoiled clique too much, they would go rogue by 'selling the regime out' to the US and SK. The more nukes they have, the higher price they can sell at; the stronger negotiating position they have with regard to the CCP. The CCP has chosen a stupid strategy. They have imagined, when they arm NK with nukes, that they could brainwash the SK people with the idea "only China can save us from the threat of NK's nukes" (psychological coercion) and that the US Forces in SK and Japan would be pinned down in the Taiwan or South China Sea contingency (military coercion). The result? (1) Now SK people is one the most anti-China in the whole world even though there are strong biz ties between two countries. (2) SK and the US have consolidated the extended nuclear deterrence (the will of the US to use nukes) (3) SK is becoming the world's forth or third largest non-nuke state-of-the-art weapons supplier and a de facto NATO member. Saudi just decided to go with SK's ballistic missile defense system(ChunGung-2). If their new fighter development (KF-21) goes successful by 2026, SK's arms export will exceed that of France. Saudi Arabia wants to be a partner of the future of the fighter. kzread.info/dash/bejne/aqt6rpKegq28d7Q.html It is only 900 km from Seoul to Beijing. Only 700 from Sin-Ee-Ju (NK). The best strategy for China should be to stabilize the peninsula and make the division permanent. Mao said "when you lose your lips, your teeth gets frozen'(脣亡齒寒) when he sent three million soldiers to the Korean War and made hundreds of thousands killed or maimed. China should have managed NK as the buffer. That was exactly what the US had agreed to and wanted. Status-quo game. The geography of NK had set its fate as a buffer. Still, China has armed this 'buffer' with nukes and with SRBMs, IRBMs and ICBMs. These are destabilizing, 'revisionist' stuff. China's strategy has been schizophrenic. They have played a revisionist game with a 'should-be' status-quo locality. I do not worry too much about the possibility of a full-scale conflict as long as the US maintains a hot-line communication channel with China. NK's ruing clique is a very cunning business group. They know that a war would be a total annihilation of the clique. As for China, they cannot bear the consequences: the loss of 'the lips'..... The US Forces would not, should not be permanently stationed in the NK after a brief war. SK forces are more than enough for the PLA's Northern and Central Command Centers (北方战区, 中部戰區), in terms of non-nuke confrontation. Just imagine an 800,000 soldiers (now it is 550,000 ..after reunification it will be increased at least to 800,000) armed with, for example, hundreds of fighters ranging from F-35, F-15, F-16 to the indigenous KF-21 which is more agile than F-16, almost as strong as F-15 and more of a multi-role than a F-35. And 4.5 million reserve forces (within 8 years after 2 years of conscription,.. now it is 3 milllion but...). China can destroy Korean Peninsula. But it cannot conquer or rule it. And SK has the power to destroy almost all the coastal area from Shanghai to Lianoing, including Beijing. The depth can reach upto ChongQing. Why shoud China worry? Even if all the elites in Seoul are killed, SK, as a free republic, will go on. But if all the elites in Beijing are killed, the CCP ends. China is the one to back-off. NK is the one to sell off. If China can manage the back-off (the handling of nuke-armed rogues), this peninsula will remain divided. If it fails, sooner or later, this cunning mass-killers will sell off the regime and start a new life in the US protectorate Virgin Island with the immunity given by the US.

@John-.-Smith

3 ай бұрын

Do you have any proof that supports your claim that "they (China) arm NK with nukes"? I don't find any. In fact, China has always criticized North Korea for its nuclear tests and voted for UNSC resolutions that criticized and even sanctioned North Korea for its nuclear tests.

@SuhbanIo

3 ай бұрын

@@John-.-Smith bc they are hypocrites

Nothing is permanent or forever...but none of us alive today are going to see a reunification of the two Koreas.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

What about the catastrophic collapse scenario for the North?

@IapetusStag

3 ай бұрын

​@@JamesKerLindsay - It won't happen, professor: or something else that is bad will happen instead. We citizens who live in the free world are easily failing to realize that free countries are nothing like authoritarian countries. French citizens can protest all they want against their government's plan to increase retirement age, and at least some results will achieved. But no amount of protesting or revolution in totalitarian countries will ever work - how many people protested against their government in Afghanistan (against the Taliban), Iran (hijab issue), China (on Hong Kong and against the zero Covid lockdown). We are not the same as them.

@brianfoley4328

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay It wouldn't be the first collapse of North Korea, a regime which borders on being a Deity cult, still survives. One perspective, changes in Anthropomorphic data is usually a millennial kind of change but North Korea has been able to significantly impact that in a negative way. In less than three generations (less than sixty years) North Korean men are now shorter than South Korean women and not by a small amount. Let that sink in and its impact. How malnourished does one have to let their populace become to so dramatically effect an entire population? Koreans, North or South, are genetically the same and yet the dictatorial North has managed to reduce the height, across an entire generation, of it's male population by several inches. If one ever wanted a "Nature versus Nurture rebuttal this is a solid one. My point is...any society so ingrained and brainwashed that it would tolerate this treatment will surely weather almost any conceivable "collapse".

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

@@brianfoley4328 Thanks, I see your point. It seems hard to see it being overthrown. But that doesn’t mean it can’t implode. None of us could envisage the collapse of Warsaw Pact and the USSR, until it happened. But the consequences would be enormous. As you said, the two peoples have moved so apart from each other.

@theanarkiddie4569

3 ай бұрын

⁠@@IapetusStag I think the very fact that there are two Koreas, one democratic and the other authoritarian is evidence of the fact that the same group of people can live under a democracy or an autocracy. There is no fundamental difference between areas which means they must be authoritarian or democratic; rather, history, war, protest and revolution are the means by which a country becomes democratic or authoritarian, they very much do matter. You forget that all present democracies were autocracies at some point, the transition is very much doable it happens through protest and revolution, and Our World in Data tracks the democratic trend through time.

I think the South might as well accept the death of that dream of reunification too. With the partition being so old now, an increasing part of the population would much rather keep their economy running as smoothly as possible, rather than burden themselves with the idea of possibly absorbing a state that has never moved on from the Cold War.

@bjolie78

2 ай бұрын

As a German I TOTALLY disagree

@halfbakedproductions7887

2 ай бұрын

It's the same in Ireland. The only people battering on about 'unification' there are republican zealots who are permanently online, and old farts from the IRA who are still looking over their shoulders 30 years later. Normal people don't care because Northern Ireland and the Republic are two different countries with two different people, that and nobody has a solid plan for how 'unification' will actually work and look. Imagine trying to have 'unification' between the USA and Canada just because they share a border and many things look and feel the exact same? Yeah, that's not going to happen. Ever. So why should it happen in Ireland or Korea?

Amazing take, Prof. James! Keep the videos coming. Also, I recently wrote a journal article on India-Africa relations, is there any way I can reach out to your and take your valuable feedback on the same? Best Regards, Ali from Kashmir, India! Edit: Rest assured, I'll be using my institute ID and won't be spamming your inbox. Many thanks.

Excellent synopsis.. The formalization in north Korea of a non-peaceful reunification must be a point of deep examination. The paradigm north Korea has used since 1991 when support from the Soviet Union disappeared has been to create false crisis' in order to extract concessions given to the north for free. Here in south Korea a massive burgeoning problem is the demographic time bomb has exploded and the RoK is having difficulty filling units with conscripted young men. Despite conscrition have full political support in society for domestic political reasons the former President Roh lower the terms of service for conscripts, thus creating a mechanism that has hollowed out the military. The north sees the demographic iceberg the south has, and the possible ending of the security guarantee from the US. In south Korea the government spends around 2.8% of GDP on Defense. If south Korea did not have the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US the south would need to spend between 8-9% on Defense and the term of conscription in the south would be between 4-5 years, with women also being subject to conscription. These "costs" to maintain deterrance without the US politically would be quite difficult burden on society in south Korea. In north Korea KJU easily sees the political difficulties the US & the RoK have had maintaining political coherent policy towards the north since 1992. KJU is looking at the long game & is anticipating Trump could be reelected, and this is a window of opportunity to get the US to withdrawl as well as abrogate its Mutual Defense Treaty just like President Carter did with the Republic of China (Taiwan). Given the departure of the US, demographic problems in the south, and the heavy political/economic costs to deter a hostile north; the ability for the north to leverage concessions from the south will be unabated. The only way the RoK can create deterrance is with nuclear weapons, which will create a new paradigm of two nuclear armed states locked in a serious conflict. Not a positive development. All of this unfortunately plays into the hands of the PRC by removing the US from the Far East thus creating a complete Chinese hegemony with the corner stone of their Foreign Policy would be bullying and relentless intimidation. Thanks for covering this topic.

Does reunification not imply a more unstable relationship between the Korea's?

@silverfang1158

2 ай бұрын

If they do unify, how would this work for the? I mean people in NK worship Kim Jung UN in every way. Does he expect this kind of treatment to be the same once the south merges with theirs? It’s gonna set off a lot of mixed feeling between the two sides.

"... So they wish to surrender?"

heck - give it a mere 10 thousand years - permanency is fleeting

Coincidentally, I'm reading "Behind the Wall" by Katja Hoyer right now. Things wouldn't have had to go but a little bit different and we just might have a nuclear DDR in the middle of Europe threatening it's neighbours with war and firing missiles into the Baltic Sea...

New subscriber. I enjoyed your analysis. Very clear. Very informative. As a practical matter, could these two nations ever reunify? The two sides are simply too far apart politically and economically. I can't see Kim every participating in a free election.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thank you so much, and a very warm welcome to the channel! I think it is almost impossible to see a negotiated reunification under the current administration in the North. The most likely scenario would be if the North collapses. But this would be devastating for the South, economically, politically and socially. Trying to integrate it would be a mammoth task that would take decades. One just needs to consider German unification. It cost a fortune, and even thirty years later the effects of the separation can still be seen.

Thanks for the video professor. It seems the scenario is similar to Germany in that only with the loss of will or collapse (which as seen in the Soviet example may be one in the same) of Communist China would North Korea itself collapse. Despite dangerous questions that would arise such as the future of the DPRK’s nuclear weapons, in that scenario North Korea would essentially be a sideshow to a larger geopolitical cataclysm, with the PRC’s own nuclear arsenal presenting a much greater challenge to manage. Given how the collapse of the Soviet Union and its satellites was itself so unanticipated and sudden, predicting the specifics such a future scenario seems impossible. As far as this January declaration, it seems to be a part of North Korea’s increasingly extreme oscillation between peacemaking (usually when it needs food aid) and saber-rattling. Right now despite Beijing’s status as Pyongyang’s primary protector, Moscow seems to be leaning heavily on Pyongyang not only for military supplies but also for geopolitical misdirection. The Kim regime, given barely enough aid to stay in power by Xi, seems only too happy to oblige Putin, and this declaration could very well be part of that. Thanks as always for the video professor and hope you are well!

Όσο έγινε η Κύπρος ένα κράτος ενωμενο άλλο τόσο θα γίνει και η Κορέα ενωμένη Αυτά είναι αστεία να τα λές Στην παρούσα φάση το καλύτερο είναι να υπάρχει ειρήνη στην περιοχή μακριά και αγαπημένοι που λέμε στήν Ελλάδα η παροιμία. Έτσι όπως είναι τα πράγματα Τώρα ένωση δεν γίνεται μόνο Ειρήνη ☮️ μπορεί να υπάρξει να το θέλουν και οι δύο χώρες πραγμάτικα όμως Ο ένας να μην ενοχλεί των άλλων αυτό είναι το καλύτερο για την ώρα ο πόλεμος δεν είναι η λύση Ούτε για την ένωση ούτε για την ειρήνη ένας διάλογος δεν βλάπτει νομίζω εγώ.

Same could be said for the PRC and ROC they are taking 2 different road

Because China has strong security interest regarding unification, to paraphrase French President Mitterand on the fall of the Berlin Wall, China loves Korea so much, it prefers two of them.

@AlteredState1123

3 ай бұрын

😂😂😂

@halfbakedproductions7887

2 ай бұрын

The only reason North Korea exists in its current form is because it's convenient for China. Were that not the case, China would have collapsed the regime in the mid-2000s when Kim Jong Il started with his nuclear weapons testing. Beijing were absolutely furious about that, but it was better to keep the dance going as there was a much bigger picture.

In the 70's men served 7 to 8 years in the military in NK, and 3 years in sk

Why would it

Cleary neither side wants to inherit the other's debt.

Is it a question of when not if that North korea's regime will fall ?

In contrast to the reunification of Germany, a number of problems stand in the way here. 1) The divided states have fundamentally different concepts of what "reunification" actually means. 2) Some of the neighbouring states will not be willing to accept this reunification. Thus China would lose its "cheap protective layer".

Thought experiment: N Korea ends, but S Korea is able to secure the area. Could the entire Northern half of the Korean Peninsula become a Special Economic Zone? The Republic of Korea owns it as a one country two systems government. instead of immediately trying to integrate the northern half?

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks. That could certainly be a way of dealing with it. It might be too hard to do the full integration immediately. Instead some sort of phased integration with international assistance might be the way to go. The question is how to balance full sovereignty and authority with a slower and more careful reunification in real terms. The South would need to show its control, but do it in a way that doesn’t seem like an occupation. And there would certainly be a lot of people in the north who would treat it with suspicion after decades of indoctrination. On top of this, opinion could also turn if positive results aren’t delivered quickly. It would be a mauve undertaking and hugely difficult to manage.

There are various interpretations of Kim's statement about abandoning the unification of the Korean peninsula. First, his statement itself is really tricky. What kind of unification he was referring to? Because there are various versions of the unification model. Second, he also mentioned that South Korea is his country's permanent enemy. What does it mean? The Korean War was broken out by his grandfather for the unification of the Korean peninsula in the North's term. So if he decided to abandon the goal of unification, the war now become meaningless, so it would be the best time for negotiating a peace agreement. But he didn't. One of the interpretations I agree with is that nothing has changed. He erased the article about the call for unification from the North Korean constitution. However, the unification mentioned in the article does not mean all forms of unification: it meant peaceful unification by negotiation, such as forming the Korean Confederation. At the same time, he also mentioned that the war was ongoing, and the war was a war for unification by force in the North's terms. Furthermore, he at the same time ordered the North Korean military institutions to prepare for restoring the territory in the South, meaning the whole chunk of ROK territory. So it it can be inferred that he still wants to unify the whole chunk of the Korean peninsula by force. Interestingly, Andrei Lankov, one of the prominent researchers of North Korea, recently mentioned in a conference by Korea Economic Institute of America that "North Koreans are beginning to think seriously about a military solution of the Korean problem which is the invasion of the South" It seems that there is a wide agreement among Korea Watchers that Kim's recent comment on the unification meant he found the military solution is the most realistic option for him. There are two points to support this argument. The quantitative and qualitative conventional military superiority of the South could be (not easily but possibly) neutralised by tactical nuclear weapons which Kim and his advisors think usable. American support to its southern ally could be abandoned, not anytime soon but someday. They believe it because they found, from the Ukrainian case, that the decision-makers in Washington would not take the risk of a direct war against another nuclear power.

This year marks 70 years since Din Bin Phu. Sometimes partition doesn't last.

Practically, people in South Korea, do not want the burden of reunification. More practical idea may be a federation of Korea.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks so much. That’s an interesting idea. A federation might make sense for all sorts of reasons. But even then it will be vastly expensive and require a lot of social and political adjustment.

@YoonHangKimMD

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay it would have to be about risk mitigation… it will be absolute disaster financially if North Korea unilaterally declared that it wants to be absorbed by South Korea. Likely, South Korea will suffer severe, economic, social, and potential security issues arising from unification. Also, in South Korea, even people who have escaped North Korea sometimes will say that they are Korean Chinese chosunjok to avoid discrimination. What some are proposing are truly two systems separate while communicating and collaborating. At this time that also looks quite impractical with North Korea having achieved nuclear threat against South Korea, Japan, and possibly the US…

Blood is thicker than water

Kim won't accept because of power🤣🤣🤣

@silverfang1158

2 ай бұрын

He want everyone to bow before him.

😔😢😢

Unification would eventually happen when we officially see the change of guard at the top. Division, animosity, and mistrust would be buried for good.

@theotherohlourdespadua1131

3 ай бұрын

How did Yugoslavia go? Or the Central American Republic?

@FreemanV99

3 ай бұрын

@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 Don't know. Tell us...

Thank you for educational content, it's very hard to unify Korea because Kim family is dictatorship while South Korea is democracy Since Trump tried and there was no progress I gave up I hope one day someone will unify Korean

@douglassun8456

3 ай бұрын

It sounds like Trump made Kim as good an offer as he is likely to get to de-nuclearize and he still turned it down. So yeah, I'm afraid you make a good point. However, the Kim family will not rule forever because no dynasty lasts forever. The big problem will be, what happens once they die out? And will South Korea even want what they leave behind? Reunifying Germany turned out to be a huge problem because West Germany didn't expect that East Germany was in such bad shape, and now they were responsible for cleaning it up.

North Korea should promote itself as a Pokemon Go destination 🤣

@halfbakedproductions7887

2 ай бұрын

Pyongyang Street View.

Or war later this decade

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Worryingly, this is certainly an option. I would use this in my title, but I thought I would go with a slightly more cautious approach. But a full-scale conflict has to be a real concern.

Regardless of what peope say, Ihope to see the happy peaceful reunification of the koreas. and I so hope there is no more suffering and poverty. 😢

I remember watching a video of people in the streets in south korea being interviewed about this topic and a lot of them were neutral or against it, especially younger generations. They have basically no family attachments cause they never even met their relatives from the other side and a lot of them are not even alive anymore. Plus a lot of them didn't like the idea of messing up their economy big time to modernize north korea, which makes sense because even though they're a rich country, their economy is pretty fragile and heavily reliant on imports

I doubt his sincerity. A diversion of sorts for another attempt at taking the southern portion.

preservation of a dynasty.

Costs, risks, difficulties and all that aside... It's still a tragedy to see this great people divided.

3:18 Qing is not Chinese. Qing is Manchurian. Its more like Indian empire under the british rule.

Thank you for the video, i always wondered what happened to the "Unification Institutes" they rolled out in South Korea and the whole idea behind them, which on it's naively observed surface was positive on paper for all Koreans but below the surface of course meant that South Koreans would've been turned more and more indifferent towards the artrocities of dictat communism happening across North Korea and possibly could've turned South Koreans hostile towards the benefits of social capitalism that's now prevelent across the entire West and is, to my knowledge, still the core principle of the South Korean government. Let's hope and pray that the spark of divine justice present in all of us humans will prevent a single human from ever deciding over a dire fate for millions, potentially billions of lives and souls via nuclear missile strikes.

I didn’t know the North abandoned the reunification goal. I know the South claims to want reunification but due to the costs associated with reunification with the much poorer north I don’t think they actually want it. Obviously that’s just an opinion.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Thanks. Yes, it was a shock announcement. The North and South had always said they wanted the nation reunited, even if they never really meant it. But this has formalised the division. The big question is what it really means.

@BMWE90HQ

3 ай бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay it will be interesting to see if not a little scary too.

Thanks prof! How do you think sanctions against the North have affected the odds of peaceful reunification? Personally, I believe that sanctions have probably made peaceful reunification less likely. Economic growth (except in petrostates), tends to mean a rise in the number of educated middle and working-class citizens, who form the backbone of democratic states. The strength and scale of sanctions against NK inhibits economic growth and thereby this change in class structure. So, rather than causing the uprising against the regime as desired, sanctions actually keep the population rural, less educated and impoverished. The poverty does pose some threats to the Kim family’s grasp on power but, in my view, only a fraction of the challenge enormous growth and ensuing calls for democracy would have. What do you think? I think there are possible rationales (rather than incompetence) which could explain American foreign policy. Perhaps, even US policymakers agree with me entirely, increasing the economic leverage of authoritarian states comes with major risks in the short-term before their democratic transition. It is conceivable that US policymakers understand that removing sanctions would make a democratic transition more likely, but feel they have their hands full with China at the moment. However, I suspect that it is more likely that American policy is motivated by vindictiveness towards the North as well as short-term political incentives to keep positive relations with the South. In the long-term I think this is short-sighted, as sanctions increase the risk of the NK collapse scenario - which, especially as a nuclear-armed state, I think is much more of a roll of the dice for the US than allowing NK’s growth would have been. I would point to the US’s recent détente with Vietnam, which you made a great video on, as a good counterexample of the benefits of allowing economic growth, as well as the history of South Korea and Japan, who both became strongly democratic after massive growth from manufacturing.

@Hoopsnake

3 ай бұрын

The idea that prosperity leads to democracy is an old one, but does it really hold up anymore? Everyone swore that would be the path China took, but China was quite comfortable with economic growth and development married to an increasingly rigid state structure. South Korea and Japan are success stories for sure, but their success have as much to do with direct American influence and political structuring than as with American business.

I thought they abandoned that decades ago

@JamesKerLindsay

2 ай бұрын

Not officially. No one has thoughts that it would happen for decades. However, the sides retained the policy. This decision is important because it ends the idea of peaceful reunification.

The united republic of korea(The URK) will be among the strongest military and economic giants of the world.Both koreas are good people god bless you.

Kim jong un Fears he could be overthrow So maybe why he said the things in the speech

@halfbakedproductions7887

2 ай бұрын

The Kim dynasty seems to be on a knife edge and Kim Jong Un seems paranoid. His apparent successors are his sister (who seems universally disliked) and his daughter (far too young). Kim Jong Un was just parachuted in back in 2011 and the military weren't keen, but they had no choice. That is a limited-time offer and there will come a point where people will stop accepting that. If he goes, there will definitely be some kind of power struggle even if the outside world doesn't see it. People working in diplomatic circles have noted disquiet from North Korean dignitaries, who have apparently been saying things like "not another Kim yet again" etc. when the regime changes.

In the economy section of your analysis, a mention of the US sanctions and embargo should have been made. A major reason why the North collapsed economically, aside from the collapse of the USSR, is the decades of sanctions by the US which have prevented the North from importing foreign goods. Famine, malnutrition, and ill health in the country have been tied to these sanctions as well. In the military section a mention of the large US force, including nukes, on the Korean peninsula deserved more mention. Why the North pursues nukes and a large war machine is because the ruling elite feel threatened by the presence of US troops and weapons. A peaceful resolution to this conflict cannot happen unless the US gives the North some space. Reunification is unlikely in my opinion due to the vast economic difference. But a cooperative neighbourly relationship is possible between the North and South.

It’s just sad, imo, that an ethnically relatively homogeneous group like the Koreans, in an identifiable distinct geographical area that is the peninsula, should now consider it impossible to live in unity and harmony….after just 70 years of separation and division.

@GWT1m0

3 ай бұрын

It's all political. It's the same situation as Taiwan, which is a sovereign independent country. 20 years ago, Taiwan people would consider themselves the true successors to Chinese civilisation. Now, after generations of effective re-education and a more assertive China. They want to have none of it. Educational narratives of future generations truly change courses of countries.

@theotherohlourdespadua1131

3 ай бұрын

Homogenous ethnicity is not a strong unifying pull as people think it is. Germany and Italy didn't coalsce into unified countries just because they spoke the same language and share the same blood, it took them war to be united. Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines share the same blood (heck culture in many places) and yet they are not united into a single country; they even fought each other over control of Sabah in the 1960's...

@hisdadjames4876

3 ай бұрын

@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 Indeed….we are good at finding reasons to argue with our fellow man🫤. Sadly, in matters of state at least, power, greed and self-interest tend to dominate all other considerations.

Reunification was never possible in the first place. It would pose too much of a threat to his power. That would give the other countries involved more say in what he does.

Psudo Treaty (Still at War) = Possible Unpause on the Korean War.

The Kim's will be remembered, but as what depends on future nostalgia.

And this follows on the North Korean destruction, not too long ago, of the unification building at the DMZ. I have lived in South Korea since 2003 and this makes me and my Korean friends very uneasy, to say the least. It is a de facto statement of our situation that leads little doubt what DPRK plans to do!

No one ever thought there was the slightest chance of reunification.

@JamesKerLindsay

3 ай бұрын

Yes. I said as much. But the key point here is that there is a difference between having the policy and never implementing it, and announcing that the idea of reunification is now over.

In case you missed it the Cold War resurrected in 2000.

It is a shock only for ordinary people. DPRK stopped calling SK as Nam Choson (South Choson) and started calling by SK's official name DaehanMinguk in summer 2023 in mass media and official documents.

Imagine thinking some guys will refuse God status for a nationalist idea from Europe.

How realistic would a unification be anyway. Both societies are now so different. From education, to economy, to freedom to being yourself. Imagine they would be agreeing on becoming one Korea next week. That would just not work.

0:05 Wow, did they? So they have no aspirations to invade anymore 🤔

Never considered it, but it will probably take a century for the South to rehabilitate the North upon a " peaceful " reunion?

thx Prof. The one thing that stood out for me was, if China had so much influence over the peninsula early on, why isn't China making the same claim they are with respect to Taiwan?

@douglassun8456

3 ай бұрын

It's a much different situation. For the Chinese communist Party, their victory in the Civil War is not complete until they absorb Taiwan because that's where the remnants of the Nationalist movement set up shop. The Kuomintang Party (KMT) is the direct descendant of Chiang Kai-Shek's losing Nationalist army. Korea has been more like a little brother than a hated rival.

@John-.-Smith

3 ай бұрын

No Chinese think Korea peninsula is Chinese territory. The term Chosen (ancient name for Korea) appears in Chinese literary at least two thousand years ago. It has always been regarded as an independent country, not Chinese territory.

hello to yorkshire how thee dowhen ? do you have putin live tup theere

Couldn't it just be a realisation and admittal of the status quo? Or maybe even a prelude to a peace treaty?

Great topic. Thanks. To be adolescent here, the bad Korea is still very bad: a slave-ocracy. As others have noted, China has a vested interest in seeing Korea divided. For Koreans, I really hope things will change for the better. There are also a significant number of Koreans within China close to the North Korean border. That part of the world would be so much cooler if all of Korea could become a liberal democracy.

South Korean would never unify with North Korea unless South Korea government was the only government and the North Korean leaders and military stepped down.

Pudding boy needs to step down if there is ANY hope of reunification. The delusion is astounding in this one.

Contrary to a much-believed myth, the US and USSR didn't agree to "divide" Korea in 1945. The two countries had agreed to demarcate military occupation zones, not to set up two Korean countries.

@KonradAdenauerJr

3 ай бұрын

@@Phil_Mitchell Responses from trolls with blank profiles are tedious...

Technically North and South Korea are still at war as there is no Peace Treaty signed after the Korea War.ended in 1953 As to the future of the Korean Peninsula, I can only see two possible outcomes both of which will be determined by the geo-politics of the US, Russia and China with the US being the key determinant. The first outcome is the present status quo which has been prevailing since the end of the Korean War. South Korea has been able to enjoyed peace and prosperity to date not only because of US support but also its good relationships with its close neighbors China and Russia. Lately, China is also South Korea's biggest trading partner. But things are changing since Pres Yoon came into power because unlike his predecessor who took a more neutral stance towards China and Russia, Pres Yoon has cast all his chips in favor of the US who is now aggressively implementing a containment policy against China and Russia. Inevitably if there is a war between the US and China over Taiwan, then there is a high probability South Korea and Japan will be dragged in by the US. This will result in a bigger regional conflict with Russia and North Korea joining China. The reason why I am certain Russia and North Korea will get involved is simply because if China is defeated, they will be the next targets, thus constituting an existential threat. Question now is, who will win in this conflict with the US, Japan and South Korea against China, Russia and North Korea? I am confident it will be the later because of to main reasons. This war will be existential to China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea and Japan but not to the US. Albeit technologically they are at par, but the later also have the home ground advantage. What then will be the future of South Korea? It will cease to exist. This to me is the second outcome.

One unfortunate small issue is, unification doesn’t benefit anyone, apart from the North Korean people may experience better quality of life. As stated by Professor, leaders of both sides have little incentive to share power with the other. Major powers would prefer a buffer state on their side than an emerging regional powerhouse that’s Nuclear armed. Speaking of nuclear weapons, North Korea is perhaps the country that’s most resistant to nuclear attacks. With highly mountainous terrain and 70 years worth of underground infrastructure, North Korea is likely to take less damage in a nuclear exchange. Fortunately we will probably have a few more years. Whatever North Korea got in return from supplying Russia, may it be satellite access, hypersonic missile technology, or worst, nuclear submarines, it’s likely to increase North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. It may take a few more years before North Korea capitalizes this gain before making its moves.

I'm surprised NK lasted this long.

China and Russia are also more than happy to maintain a buffer between them and non allied nations and would resist any reunification unless it was South Korea being absorbed into the North.

Now South Korea can focus on its alliances and military instead of lapsing for years on end.

kim just needs to stay in everyones words so he and his failing city dosnt die