like Mystic dan as longshot

@ragnarelliswyatt4130

Ай бұрын

Definitely a candidate to hit the board for me.

Excellent content Craig. I’ve always been a fan of these 2 stamina pieces of the Derby puzzle. Can Fierceness get a clean trip to the first turn? Will he draw a favorable post position? -At least we’ll get my second question answered this Saturday, April 21st.

Thanks for the content my friend. 🏇

derbyologist, are u doing stride anaylisis?? Im trying to find the height of all these derby contenders to no avail. I d love to hear ur input on the subject of stride figs..

Another great video...Thank you for your insight, It makes for an enjoyable prep, for the races...

These statistics don’t matter like they used to. Derby winners with :38+ in final prep 2008: Big Brown 2009: Mine That Bird 2010: Super Saver 2011: Animal Kingdom 2020: Authentic 2021: Medina Spirit 2023: Mage Same names with the final 1/8 at 13+ with the exception of subtracting Big Brown but adding Rich Strike. Rich Strike finished at 13.08 but finished a final 3/8 at 36.89. The ones who qualify under the 38 and 13 rule are Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Fierceness, and Forever Young. I would pick Fierceness from that bunch since the LA and UAE Derby haven’t a produced KY Derby winners. Fierceness: Always Dreaming Part 2? Same trainer and rider. Similar running style. Won the Florida Derby with the highest BSF entering it. Similar closing fractions. Will be the chalk. Of course, Always Dreaming did nothing after winning the Derby. Fierceness may end up doing the same like Rich Strike and Mage won nothing after winning the Derby.

@chm97chm97

Ай бұрын

Fierceness won in a hand ride, the jock was practically standing up. He reminds me of Holy Bull.

I like to see these figures on all 20 entries - especially the favorites. Thanks!

@darrendaley4265

Ай бұрын

Blood Horse has it.

@vernonfrance2974

Ай бұрын

@@darrendaley4265 Thanks!

Save me a lot of time doing math 😊 I find final fraction to be a good indicator, but I use the big five prep race Baby Godzilla has my scratching my head

This is an interesting theory, and like you suggested, its a good tool to add to data on a horse. Domestic Product is an oddity to me. Either his numbers are off, or he's better than what he's shown so far, or...he's there to shake things up.

@derbyologist

Ай бұрын

I think he might be there to shake things up! 🧲 I might throw him in some tri's

I like the last fractions and GPS final speeds.. it shows when a Slug ends like a Slug.... but sometimes a slug will run like a Banshee... Ticket Busters they R...

Thanks for the tips. Sierra Leone seems to enjoy passing other horses in the final stretch.

@vernonfrance2974

Ай бұрын

Maybe he is just responding to the whip.

What is domestic products late pace in Holly bull

Very interesting stuff, great content! Is anyone thinking what I am about Sierra Leone? Maybe he's already reached his plateau?? All his races have been good thus far....he's one you would figure, would've made both of these lists. Perhaps he won't fire his expected kick in the Derby??

@Solittletimetoomany

Ай бұрын

Watch his last race. Impressive!

What is Encino final 3/8 and 1/8 time?

I like Mystic Dan as a long shot to but only if the track is muddy or sloppy because he seems to love these kind of track conditions. He ran high speed figure on a sloppy track. So far the weather report calls for the rain to start at 6 o'clock before the race and continue until 7. The derbiologist likes Mystic Dan also on a sloppy track.

wise guys alll.love S L. which is great.

Hi, excelente analysis...could you made the analysis about the time on previous prep races...I got the analysis since 2013 and if the there is not a fast pace the winner is the best or second best time on prep...1 1/8 distance. And also the two best time are in the super...if the horse is scratched the best time is for the horse who arrived second..adds 1/5 for every length .. I didn't take out disqualified horses like maximum security and Medina spirit...physical winner crossing line first. Have a nice day.

@josenunez4464

Ай бұрын

I hit the supers in 2017 with always dreaming and the justify one in 2018.🎉🎉🎉 With this analysis. And the disqualification of Maximum Security made me loss the super on that Derby race.

Great work i wonder which list rich strike went on. 😂😂😂😂😂😂that horse burn some money for me

How many times do you hear the other Chad Brown well maybe it will be heard in 11 days

horse hardcm to get a number on is forever young. need jockeyband trainer win stat percentage. does anybody have their stats. Thx.

According The Chart I Have Sierra Leone 1:12.1 - 1:50 Which Suggest 37.4 those who see it as 1:12 - 1:50 is saying 38 His final 1/8 12.4 is a tad slow for a make believe big closer?

@derbyologist

Ай бұрын

Yes, I saw that, if you use the charts it gets in at :38 flat rather than the GPS, which we only have for a few tracks. Thats what's weird about the Blue Grass he didn't come home that fast final 1/8th - Tapit Trice and Zandon both came home faster. Sierra Might be a better horse, but the final fractions don't show it.

@ianchefking5416

Ай бұрын

@@derbyologist it’s said he was only 75% and should improve so do give a false read

Forever Young wasn't on the 2nd list, only the first.

be up on pace down stretch. watched. him.blow away just steele in slop bye 8 lengths..muddy hes best bet

psople thimk S. L. is a freight train down sterch😂😂

@Deznutz6969

Ай бұрын

He s good but theres one horse whos kind ve under the radar and has run faster times and with trouble trips.. This derby s gonna be a fun one

Sticking To The Scrip Sierra Leone Doesn’t Qualify

most people think this is. 2 horse race. boy are they wrong ,what. see in my numbers. if fierceness doesnt run 2nd . exacta and tri. superwill pay well. dont see catching freedom and fierceness in exacta. but i bet. him 2nd to my horse anyway. and AmS. L. not r able to close on. C. F. that horse believe fastest r closer down stretxh in last eight of a mile

@michaellauletti6552

Ай бұрын

Yes they are so wrong!

Called it…Domestic Product….this theory is legit and makes him a serious contender. Wellll see 🏇

Give me horse who can go the last quarter mile in 24 seconds in a 1 /1/4 mile race,l give you a Kentucky Derby horse: bald eagle. ...Prof.Dr.Nasir Fazal Cambridge

No Tampa Bay winner Win the Kentucky Derby,last Year,Tapit Trice,a better Horse than DP..

read week ago be in americsn turf..Endlesdly