Artificial Intellignce is nothing compared to Natural Stupidity

@GnosticAtheist

4 күн бұрын

lol - true that. While I am certain we will get there, I hope we can avoid creating AGI that has our natural capabilities to be stupid.

@Ann-op5kj

4 күн бұрын

It's the same thing. Where is AI generated from?

@generichuman_

4 күн бұрын

so edgy...

@acidjumps

4 күн бұрын

I use both about equally at work.

@turkeytrac1

4 күн бұрын

That's tshirt worthy

Do you all remember before the internet, that people thought the cause of stupidity was lack of access to information? Yeah. It wasn't that.

@TshegoEagles

3 күн бұрын

Knowledge is power!!😂😂😂

@SRMoore1178

3 күн бұрын

"Think about how dumb the average person is and then realize that half of them are dumber than that." George Carlin AI will have no problem outsmarting the average person.

@deep.space.12

2 күн бұрын

@@SRMoore1178 more like median but sounds about right

@389293912

2 күн бұрын

LOL!!! Great observation.

@spacecowboy511

2 күн бұрын

Ya, but the internet is an excellent way to shepherd the sheep.

Never underestimate the capability and resourcefulness of corporate greed- especially when it's a collective effort.

@ericrawson2909

Күн бұрын

Exactly what I was thinking. And not just corporations. Politicians, and in fact most people. They have shown that they will deny truth when it is pointed out to them by a well qualified person, if it conflicts with their own interests. That could be profit, power, or simply virtue signalling to fit in with the majority. If they ignore, cancel and smear well respected experts in a field, why would they act on the advice of an AI, even if it was supremely intelligent and God like in its desire to help humanity? AI will not save the world. Like all other technology it can be used for good or evil purposes. Probably the latter more often than not.

@domenicorutigliano9717

7 сағат бұрын

everyone is undersestimating

@ericrawson2909

4 сағат бұрын

I am getting sick and tired of my comments getting deleted. I did not use any "bad" words, I guess my amplification of the criticism in the original post here to other groups was too close to home for the vested interest groups. I feel very angry, and YT, making your users angry is not a good business strategy.

“I can’t see no end!” Said the man who earned money from seeing no end. 😅😅😅 That’s gold, Sabine!

In 1997, I was working at University. A Faculty member gave me an assignment: write a program that can negotiate as well as a human. "The test subjects shouldn't be able to tell if it's a machine or a human." Apparently, she had never heard of the Turing Test. When we told her of the difficulty of the task, she confidently told us "I'll give you two more weeks." The point? There are far too many people with advanced degrees but no common sense making predictions about something never seen before.

@mikemondano3624

4 күн бұрын

One bad grade shouldn't breed lasting resentment.

@darelvanderhoof6176

4 күн бұрын

We call them "PhD Stupid". It's afflicts about half of them. Seriously.

@2ndfloorsongs

4 күн бұрын

​@@darelvanderhoof6176and the other half humorously.

@jaredf6205

4 күн бұрын

It’s just I can’t imagine why it wouldn’t happen. There’s just no way to get people to stop developing this technology. Even if you were to governments would still work on it, people in their basements would still work on it.

@ogungou9

4 күн бұрын

@pirobot668beta: There is no such thing as common sense. She didn't lack common sense, that was just stupidity. She was an idiot savant ... I don't know ...

I love how Sabine is deadpan serious throughout most videos and yet she can still make one laugh with unexpectod jokes

@jamesbarringer2737

4 күн бұрын

She does have a good and somewhat subtle sense of humor.

@ChiefEru

4 күн бұрын

In all seriousness, I want to know why have I gone to the kitchen. Better yet... the lack of remembering an empty fridge.

@hvanmegen

4 күн бұрын

I love this sane German attitude of hers.. the fact that she spends time to read an essay like this to call him on his bullshit (especially with the conflict of interest) brings me so much hope for the future. We need more people like her.

@DanielMasmanian

4 күн бұрын

Yes, a German sense of humour is no laughing matter.

@rohitnirmal1024

4 күн бұрын

@@DanielMasmanian I had a German professor. Boy, he had a sense of humor. I have not laughed since I have met hem.

In this post truth era, what people are searching for isn't truth, but rather comfort. They want someone to tell them what the answer is, regardless of the truth of the answer. There is a lot of uncertainty right now about the future, and that is the cause of all this anxiety. It's so much easier just to point at an algorithm and listen to it. That way, no one is responsible when its wrong - it's the algorithms fault. AI is trained, at the end of the day, on how humans understand the world. It's limits, therefore, will be human. Garbage in, garbage out. Seems a lot of engineers these days seem to think that basic axiom isn't true anymore, because these language models are confident in their answers. Confident does not mean correct.

@modelenginerding6996

19 сағат бұрын

A major accuracy problem with AI is not only does it train itself on information from the internet, it is also training on itself and creating a vicious feedback loop. I had a location glitch in an area with poor cell reception saying I had visited a vape shop. I got no-smoking ads from my state for two years! My social credit score has been marred 😂.

@thumpthumper9856

18 сағат бұрын

With the advancements in digital twins and replicators, nuanced synthetic data is becoming better and better. The garbage in garbage out narrative becomes less and less salient. Why worry about finding new data when fake data is just as good? At least for tasks involving computer vision and movement, to be fair.

Exponential curves usually stop being exponential pretty fast. The surprising success of Moore’s law makes IT people think that’s normal, which it isn’t.

@michaelnurse9089

4 күн бұрын

Everyone knows this. The questions is whether the curve dies out before AI intelligence exceeds our intelligence or not. If it is the latter there will be serious problems. I suspect the former.

@davidradtke160

15 сағат бұрын

Most exponential curves are actually S curves.

If I will be able to ask Google home why I went to the kitchen, I am on board!

@sebastianeckert1947

4 күн бұрын

You can ask today! Answer quality may vary

@ThatOpalGuy

4 күн бұрын

this is a real problem for many of us.

@HardcoreHokage-cw4uq

4 күн бұрын

You went into the kitchen to make a samich.

@HardcoreHokage-cw4uq

4 күн бұрын

Make me one too.

@ZhePorgi03141

4 күн бұрын

Skibidi

There's another issue, with language models anyway. The learning database already includes virtually 100% of all text written by humans, including the internet. But also, now the internet is flooded with AI-generated text, so you can't use the internet anymore, because that would be AI version of Habsburg royal lineage.

@michaelnurse9089

4 күн бұрын

"The learning database already includes virtually 100% of all text written by humans, " No, before starting training they run all the text through AI inference of the previous model. This improves quality by a significant percentage. In reality, there is always going to be another layer of AI between the current one being trained and the data.

@michaelbuckers

4 күн бұрын

@@michaelnurse9089 It improves metrics, not quality. Sure enough when AI is predicting its own text, the preplexity will be less than when it predicts human text. And this is especially a huge issue for small models fine-tuned on ChatGPT. People are already sick and tired of unpromted "as a language model" and such garbage in their anime character simulator chatbox, and yet it's only gonna get worse when next gen ChatGPT will be fine tuned on last gen ChatGPT.

@bbgun061

4 күн бұрын

That doesn't make sense. Garbage in, garbage out. Current AI models produce garbage a lot of the time. If you use that to train another AI model, it's going to produce more garbage.

@tannerroberts4140

3 күн бұрын

I think it’s good to remember that, in terms of societal contributions, the quality of human activities in general are garbage in. But society got built. We waste our time our money, our effort, get pointlessly hooked on rage bait, romcom, addictions, etc. One might say we’re mostly enjoying life, but in terms of societal contribution, it’s pretty much trash. An honest look at even the leaders in every field of study shows that each leader is either somebody with one good idea that attracted a lot of positive attention, or an exemplary personality that attracts a lot of of collective intelligence.

@michaelbuckers

3 күн бұрын

@@tannerroberts4140 Language models replicate training data. Between replicating humans and replicating itself, it's a very easy pick.

10:00 The neutron free fusion zungenbrecher is hilarious. It reminds me of a Loriot skech where Evelyn Hamann is struggeling with English pronunciation. 😂❤

Regarding failed predictions, you should also acknowledge that in terms of ai, there were many predictions that already were accomplished years earlier than predicted.

You read a 165-page essay, even though you knew the contents inside would be dubious at best. Sabine is heroic.

@Mikaci_the_Grand_Duke

4 күн бұрын

Sabine for AI in 2025!

@mikemondano3624

4 күн бұрын

I hope your implication is wrong and people don't avoid reading things they don't agree with or already think they know. That is the "echo chamber" magnified.

@justaskin8523

4 күн бұрын

@@mikemondano3624 - Oh they already avoid reading things they don't agree with. Had it happen to me 6 times this week, and there's still another workday left!

@mikebibler6556

4 күн бұрын

This is an under-appreciated comment.

@user-cw3nb8rc9e

4 күн бұрын

Old woman. Has no clue about things she wants to comment on

"I can't see no end" says anyone in the first half of the S-curve

@michael1

4 күн бұрын

"I still see no reason to upgrade my 640kb of ram" Bill Gates

@caryeverett8914

4 күн бұрын

Isn't that kinda the point of the first half of an S-Curve? The end cannot be predicted and could occur in 1 year or 50 years. It all looks the same either way. It'd be pretty silly to say the end is in sight when you're still on the straight part of the S-Curve.

@pjtren1588

4 күн бұрын

Just depends where we sit on the timescale before the inflection point. It may be one hell of an S.

@Thedeepseanomad

4 күн бұрын

@@michael1 Just wait, pay attention and grab on to the next sigmoid skyhook when it materializes .

@djayjp

4 күн бұрын

Double negative....

I love the toast joke. Keep up the good work. The logic seems concise in how you described the two primary constraints.

Thank you! I have been thinking the same thing... It's nice to have a sane person validate what you feel too

@OP-lk4tw

2 күн бұрын

ive come to counter that, by validating you while being insane

All Im saying is, is that if you need 10 Nuclear reactors to run artfificial general intelligence while humans only need a cheese sandwich, I believe we win this round.

@b0nes95

4 күн бұрын

I'm always amazed by our energy efficiency as well

@nickv8334

4 күн бұрын

well, agriculture and food production/disposal is kind of responsible for 18% of the worlds production of greenhouse emissions (excluding transport), so i think the jury is still out on who wins this round though........

@TheManinBlack9054

4 күн бұрын

Technology improves, just think of how big and ineffecient computers used to be and how small efficient they are now

@jozefwoo8079

4 күн бұрын

It's only to train the model. Afterwards it becomes cheaper than humans.

@draftymamchak

4 күн бұрын

Our efficiency doesn’t matter, the creator is superior than the creation thus no matter what AI does it’ll be because we created it. Sure it'll also be responsible for what it does but for now I'm worried about generative AI being too good and being used to fake evidence etc.

I am from Australia and I totally agree with you. Australia is one of the biggest users of AI in mining - but a lot of people don’t understand why. If you read through the comments about driverless trucks and trains in Australia, people have no idea of just how remote, humid and hot the northern parts of Australia are. People working in iron ore mining in Australia are just hours away from being seriously dehydrated or dead. For iron ore mining to be carried out at the scale that it is, it needed something better than the modern human, who is not able to work outside of an air conditioned environment in the remote northern locations of Australia. Therefore, mining companies had to come up with something that can work in a hostile environment. My understanding is that AI in mining has not reduced the number of people, just move them to a city in an air conditioned building.

@feraudyh

4 күн бұрын

That gets the prize for the most interesting thing I've read today.

@hussainhaider2818

4 күн бұрын

I don’t get it, how do you mine ore if the miners are back in the city? You mean remote controlled robots?

@conradboss

4 күн бұрын

Hey, I like Australia 🇦🇺 😊

@MyBinaryLife

4 күн бұрын

its not AI its just automation

@rruffrruff1

4 күн бұрын

It has definitely reduced the people per output, else it wouldn't be done.

For any particular mode of AI (language, image, video, etc) the bottleneck isn’t the power of the hardware or the goodness of the algorithm. The bottleneck is the availability of large amounts of TAGGED date to use for training. All neural networks are a curve-fit to some nonlinear function; the tagged data is the set of points you’re fitting to. Saying “I have lots of data, but it’s not tagged” is like saying I have all the x coordinates for the curve fitting, I just lack the y coordinates.

Never has vaporware been so expensive. Somewhere in the world people will still be using donkeys to carry firewood and cook their dinner - for at least another century.

I think there are a couple of problems here that you don't point out. The biggest one is that we don't have a rigorous definition of what the end result is. Saying "Artificial General Intelligence" without a strong definition of what you actually mean doesn't mean anything at all, since you can easily move the goalposts in either direction and we can expect people to do exactly that. Another one is that current neural networks are inefficient learners and learn a very inefficient representation of their data. We are rapidly reaching a point of diminishing returns in that area and without some fundamental breakthroughs neural networks, as currently modeled, won't get us there. Whereever "there" ends up. There also seems to be some blind spots in current AI research. There are large missing pieces to the puzzle that we don't yet have and that people who should know better are all to willing to handwave away. One example is that I can give examples of complex behavior in the animal world (honeybee dances are a good one) that it would be very hard to replicate using neural networks all by themselves. What that other piece is is currently unspecified.

@robertcopes814

4 күн бұрын

I think the issue is that people are confusing access to information with speed and intelligence. Chat GPT isn't intelligent, it just has a lot of data and has been told what not to do billions of times, I think inefficient is an understatement in terms of "learning". It doesn't understand or learn anything

@petrkinkal1509

4 күн бұрын

@@robertcopes814 Well it learns what is the most likely next word in a sentence. :)

@timokreuzer381

4 күн бұрын

Humans are extremely inefficient learners. You have to shove petabytes of video, audio and sensoric data into them for years, before they show even the slightest signs of intelligence.

@Zeroisoneandeipi

4 күн бұрын

@@robertcopes814 I agree. I asked Chat GPT 4o to create a maze with labels using HTML and JavaScript. It could do this fine. Then I took a screenshot of the maze and asked it to slove the maze and it just "walked" from A1 to F6 in a diagonal line through all walls. I asked again to do it without walking through walls, it changed the path a bit, but still walked through walls. So it does not understand what a maze is, but can create code to generate a maze just because it was trained with this code somewhere from the web.

@Zeroisoneandeipi

4 күн бұрын

I asked Chat GPT 4o to create a maze with labels using HTML and JavaScript. It could do this fine. Then I took a screenshot of the maze and asked it to slove the maze and it just "walked" from A1 to F6 in a diagonal line through all walls. I asked again to do it without walking through walls, it changed the path a bit, but still walked through walls. So it does not understand what a maze is, but can create code to generate a maze just because it was trained with this code somewhere from the web.

The Kurzweil prediction is for 2029 not 2020, right?

@SethHixie

4 күн бұрын

Yes. The same year the asteroid apophis has a 3% chance of making impact 👀

@robadkerson

4 күн бұрын

​@@SethHixie2.7% was the original hypothesis in 2004. It's been revised, and will not be hitting us in 2029 or 2036

@johanlahti84

4 күн бұрын

​@@SethHixiethink they crunched the numbers again and concluded that it will miss with a 100% certainty

@Vember813

4 күн бұрын

He's predicted 2029 since the 90s, yes

@jamesgornall5731

4 күн бұрын

​@@johanlahti84oh yeah, that's what they want us to think...

The basic fallacy in the chatter about the AI superrevolution is that a species which doesn't want to think can create a system which does.

@Hellcat-to3yh

Күн бұрын

Seems like a pretty vast over generalization there.

@douglasclerk2764

Күн бұрын

Excellent point.

@danielstan2301

18 сағат бұрын

No the worst fallacy is that they assume that a smart machine will create competition for itself or something smarter which will possibly replace/destroy the creator. That's not how life works. I also love how they assume that an intelligent machine will just want to improve itself instead of writing poetry or create stupid videos on various platforms out there like , these other smart beings already do instead of using this internet platform to improve themselves

@Hellcat-to3yh

17 сағат бұрын

@@danielstan2301 That’s not how life works? Humans are actively destroying its creator right now in Earth. We evolved from single cell organisms over hundreds of millions of years.

The outtakes were great! xD Good video as always!

She, as almost always, is level headed and she makes some very good points. I still think she’s wrong to think this won’t happen quickly (5 to 10 yrs.). I’m not here to change anybody’s mind or have a debate or even to say “I told you so!” later on. I’m currently terrified of AGI when it’ll be able to improve itself. If we can control it or not, if it’s conscious or not, it will be more dangerous than anything humans have created in the past. If you’ve ever felt bad for the ants when you built your garage or paved your driveway or if you think you know yourself better than anyone could or if you think cows can stop the farmers from going to the slaughter house or you think you can explain your New iPhone to your cat or dog with clarity. Understand that we will no longer be the dominant form of intelligence and what that entails is …………. It’d be nice to slow down but money is saying otherwise and I believe there’s more behind the door than what the public is seeing. Stay informed.

@gibbogle

4 күн бұрын

Science fiction.

@Jaigarful

4 күн бұрын

Silicon Valley has all the reason in the world to overpromise and scare people. Overpromise to encourage investment and scaring people to encourage investment in measures to keep AI under control. I think its a lot like the Back to the Future Future scenes. We have this picture of a future with technologies like hoverboards and hovercars, but the physics just don't allow for it. Instead we have a lot of technological development in a way we couldn't really predict. Personally I don't think AGI will happen in a way that makes it reliable. We'll see the use of AI expanding, but its like those flying cars in Back to the Future.

@Ligma_Shlong

3 күн бұрын

@@gibbogle thought-terminating cliche

@supadave17hunt56

3 күн бұрын

@@gibboglewhat is science fiction? That humans are not the pinnacle of intelligence? Or maybe you’ve given ant hill homes 2 week eviction notices before you ever build anything or mowed your lawn? Maybe you’ve been able to stop big business from wanting more of the almighty dollar? Maybe you haven’t taken a deep dive into how neural nets operate or understand that our civilizations ability to communicate with language has a lot to do with why we are currently the dominant species on this planet? Maybe you can’t see how our brains are very similar to “next most appropriate word simulators” in our communication? Maybe you could explain to my cat about how IPhone apps work? I’m very interested in what you think is “science fiction” as well as what you think that means. Einstein thought his math was wrong about the possibility of black holes being real (science fiction). I’m no scientist but I believe we may be intentionally or unintentionally led to our demise with smiles on our faces oblivious to how we are being manipulated to accept a fate like it was something we thought we wanted. I’m scared for us, more than I have been of anything in my life. So please elaborate if you would maybe change my mind? Anybody’s input welcome. With AI I’m hoping for the best but our track record won’t work with thinking we’ll cross that bridge when we get there (it will be too late with no do overs).

I love how even AI depicts lawmakers as asleep.

@makinganoise6028

4 күн бұрын

But are they? Maybe this is the plan, societal collapse, the West seems to be doing everything possible to destroy itself with mass illegal migration, anti family WEF cult agendas and WW3 with Russia anytime soon, destroying huge swathes of middle income jobs, fits into the picture

@PMX

4 күн бұрын

That was definitely the prompt they used. And they purposely used stable diffusion 3 that was just released and is being mocked by how bad it is at generating humans, so it would be funnier.

You made me legitimately laugh at least three time with very clever puns, while holding a straight face. I am now subscribed. I agree with most of your points (would mostly just add he left out even more considerations). But great content! Thanks!!

great stuff yet again, Sabine! Love your work

It is surprisingly common, when one tries to converse with pure software engineers, to get them to accept that the laws of physics apply to them and cannot be by-passed by sufficiently clever coding. You get the same sort of thing from genetic engineers, who simply won't accept that endless fiddling with a plant's DNA will not compensate for the absence of moisture or other nutrients in the soil or other growing medium.

@TedMan55

4 күн бұрын

I’m a software wngineer who came from a math and physics heavy based background, and I was shocked to learn that most programmers didn’t know or like math, which I’d just assumed… probably explains a lot of the current state of programming

@user-uq1sn5ob3k

4 күн бұрын

@@TedMan55 How do you even become a software developer without loving math? As someone terrible at it and coding, I assumed you'd have to swear by your high school math book to even get a chance at compsci

@egg-mv7ef

4 күн бұрын

@@user-uq1sn5ob3k thats completely wrong. math doesnt have as much to do with software engineering as u think. i mean, if youre making physics model visualization ofc u need math lol but for 50% of the usecases u dont need any math. the SEs that know math just have more opportunities cause they can work on more complex stuff like game engines etc

@TedMan55

3 күн бұрын

@@egg-mv7ef it’s not like you can’t program without math skills, it’s just that, in my opinion, because i think having a mathematical mindset helps you to think in a more rigorous, clear about definitions, and even can give you some neat shortcuts for certain algorithms

@matthewspencer972

3 күн бұрын

@@TedMan55 I had to work with one who didn't believe that voltage really mattered. We were working in the field of industrial automation; specifically a production line fora well-known Japanese car-maker in Swindon. The customer had specified Japanese PLCs (the only other choices are American or German) and when one of these arrived and needed to be set up, so the software engineer could load his software into it and a few tests, it came with a power cable terminating in the sort of 110V connector that's more or less a global standard for these things and I went off looking for a 240V to 110V adapter, into which it would have plugged with no problem, had he *waited* for me to do something he considered pointless and unnecessary. As I was making my way back, I heard "why are the indicator lights so bright? It's F***ing blinding me!" and my heart sank as my eyebrows rose. The software engineer had removed the connector and stuck a UK-standard 13-amp plug on the cable, plugged it into the office 240V mains.... I think that's why, these days, almost all domestic computer kit has switched-mode PSUs that will work with whatever the idiots plug them into. The software engineer secured a senior position at WIN.com, mainly because he was equipped with a reference so glowing (almost as brightly as the PLC had) that he couldn't really have failed in his mission to find a new job!

That bubble is technocapitalism. Where there's profit to be made, there's a will. And where there's a will, etc. Would also be keen to hear a follow up on the point about data, since models often train well on synthetic data. It feels unclear that data will be a constraint.

@NemisCassander

4 күн бұрын

You have to be VERY careful with synthetic data. I can at least address this from my own field, simulation modeling. Simulation models are actually very good at producing synthetic data for training purposes. Given, of course, that the model is valid (that is, its output is indistinguishable from real-world data). The synthetic data provided by simulation models has absolute provenance and will be completely regular (no data cleaning necessary unless you deliberately inject that need). However, the validation process for a simulation model is long, complex, and for two of the three main dynamic simulation modeling methods (ABM and SD), not well-defined. If an AI can learn how to build a simulation model of a system and validate it, then yes, the data aspect will be much less of a constraint.

@Graham_Wideman

3 күн бұрын

Why would you need to train an AI model on synthetic data? If you have a means to synthesize data, that surely implies you have an underlying model upon which that data is based, and could just give that underlying model to the big AI model as a predigested component, no?

@NemisCassander

3 күн бұрын

@@Graham_Wideman The types of models that I build would be very difficult to grasp by an AI. You could probably provide the differential equations that an SD model represents to an AI, but as for DES or ABM models.... It probably wouldn't work.

i love how at 1:20 the stock footage guy is just randomly spamming his keyboard lol

6:01 excellent point and that's why i watch, you really hone in on what is real and what is not. awesome

This sounds more like a horror story plot than a future to be excited about, tbh.

@2ndfloorsongs

4 күн бұрын

That all depends on how excited you can get about a half full glass.

@t.c.bramblett617

4 күн бұрын

It's exactly like the Matrix, including the limiting factor of energy that the Matrix movies also ignore. You can't generate energy from a closed system, and manufacturing and computing both require massive amounts of energy and as she pointed out, obtaining material for building infrastructure itself requires energy that has to be focused and channelled as efficiently as possible.

@rruffrruff1

4 күн бұрын

It will be exciting for the few people who own the AI... at least until the AI gets clever enough to own them. Honestly I think the struggle for domination will result in devastation far beyond our wildest nightmares... and there is no way we can stop it. Our best hope is that some hero develops and unleashes a compassionate AI first... that becomes king of the world.

@RedRocket4000

4 күн бұрын

@@rruffrruff1 No we can stop it. Turn off all power. But Dune style flat out ban of computer like devices would work. They only allow one tasks can't do other tasks types of electronics.

@aniksamiurrahman6365

4 күн бұрын

May be. But I'll say, a good part of the entire analysis is BS. A zeit guist of the LLM success, but has no clue on the fact that generative AI is a misfit for most practical work.

There is an assumption that in order to get to AGI ever increasingly sized models must be used. That may not end up being the case, which makes the "energy" cost limitation, rather less limiting.

@GhostOnTheHalfShell

3 күн бұрын

There’s a fundamental problem with that concept, animals don’t need that much information to run rings around AI. Man children that think more data = more information or even relevant information, or framing don’t understand the basic problem. Animal brains do something fundamentally different than adjust token vectors in hyper large dimensions.

@kanekeylewer5704

2 күн бұрын

You can also run these models on physical architectures more similar to biology and therefore more efficient

@carlpanzram7081

Күн бұрын

I'd think so too, but apparently it's not that easy. Anyway, we WILL eventually inch forward with more and more Efficient architectures. Very obviously the amount of energy you need for intelligence and computing is actually quit small. I get 100iq for a bowl Of noodles.

@GhostOnTheHalfShell

Күн бұрын

@@carlpanzram7081 The more relevant question is method. LLM aren’t a model of animal intelligence. It’s the wrong abstraction.

@schemage2210

Күн бұрын

@@GhostOnTheHalfShell This is the point for sure. LLM's are surely a piece of the puzzle, but they aren't the entire solution.

if we dont understand our own intelligence, agi will stay just a dream no matter how much data the current models are fed they will only be able to do what they were designed for.

Thank you for the breakdown. Awesome as always!

I love your channel and your take on physics and related subjects. I have about 45 years in experience in AI, albeit it started with what they called "Expert Systems", and barely evolved through Bayesian ANFI and general ML prior to about 10 years ago when I/we all went head-down into DL/NN. A few things you should know. The flattening of the S-curve according to a "mature" sustainable flattening is projected according to two independent studies at 100-million times Moore's Law. Presently we are at roughly 1,200% eff/price growth per year, and a stacked exponential that increases it by roughly 44% YOY. So, next year it will be roughly 40-times Moore's Law, and so it goes. Second, new sharded federated model approaches, coupled with more efficient algo's, training methods and other evolutionary factors are cutting the cost per ISO unit trained by 70% per year based on numerous studies and projections of research groups and companies. That covers a multitude of power demand woes. Observationally this all has followed very consistently for years now... from about Moore's Law about 12 years ago, to where we are now. You will very likely see the beginning of what many will say is "on the spectrum" of true AGI within 9 months. Some will assert that it is here with the agentic AI. If we define AGI as human level or above performance, and we average across current AI's we have above 100 IQ and creative capabilities kind of on a par with the average human. Not a high bar, but when you add ANSI (artificial narrow super intelligence) of Alpha Zero, Alpha Fold and other such systems in civi and military use, we do average better than any indiviual AI. And we can integrate multiple AI's, which is actually what my company does, and has yielded definite coding, research, Bayesian Dif-Diag and other capabilities beyond any human I know. So....

Actually, according to the graphic you slashed up, Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2029, not 2020.

@katehamilton7240

4 күн бұрын

So what? Industry people are hyping AGI to make money. AGI is also a transhumanist fantasy. Jaron Lanier and others explain this eloquently. There are mathematical limitations, there are physical limitations. AI (Machine Learning) is already 'eating itself'

@brendanh8193

4 күн бұрын

And he puts the singularly at 2045. AGI is parity, not super.

@polyphony250

4 күн бұрын

@@brendanh8193 It's looking like an out-of-this-world, shockingly good prediction today, then, considering when it was made.

@brendanh8193

4 күн бұрын

​@@polyphony250Agreed. I do get a little annoyed with SH at times for failing to understand the nature of exponential predictions. Take Vernor Vinge's prediction, in the same speech, he put bounds on it, with 2030 being his upper bound. We haven't got there yet but she basically ridiculed him for making such a prediction.

@EliteDragonX69

4 күн бұрын

He also predicted that we would have 1 word govt by 2020…

As a Data Science student, I am really happy that you are here to talk about this topic. So many people are on either extreme of speeding or slowing AI development, without even understanding the implications and the requirements of these processes. Thank you.

@Andytlp

2 күн бұрын

The requirements is a f ton of processing and persistent memory. A.i memory is that of a gold fish relative to how vast it's information capacity is. Think gpt 4 is the peak of what they can do without some new breakthrough. Other applications like relatively autonomous robots performing various tasks and adapting or even learning on the go is possible today.

@lornforlorn4867

2 күн бұрын

Forgive us humans. Egocentrism is in our programming.

I love so much that you included bloopers! hahaha

Two points: (1) It was great that you put a little "blupper" at the end, after the advert. It was just sort of an accident that I saw it, but I'm checking from now on, and that may keep me around to watch the money-making part. (2) I suggest that you introduce your salesperson self and say "Take it away, Sabine!" Then you don't have to match the blouse, and I will quit being annoyed by the change in hair length. Thanks for being so very rational. So refreshing every day. Haven't gotten my SillyCone Valley friends addicted to you yet, but I'm working on it. And do you publish some sort of calendar of speaking engagements. I live a convenient commuting distance to either Frankfurt or Heidelberg, and I'd love to attend some time.

Artificial Stupidity is growing faster than Artificial Intelligence.

@gibbogle

4 күн бұрын

Natural stupidity.

@williamkinkade2538

3 күн бұрын

Only for Humans!

@PeterPan-ev7dr

3 күн бұрын

@@williamkinkade2538 Humans infected with their senseless and stupid data the AI.

@Bobbel888

3 күн бұрын

~ the idea of nasty children bears fruit, the brighter they are

@markthebldr6834

3 күн бұрын

No, it's authentic stupidity.

I love your videos! Sometimes I wish you could interview those you disagree with - like seeing how they would react to be getting a reality check - like Aschenbrenner, but obviously that might not be easy to setup such a meeting...

Decades ago when i was 15 i watched a TV show about a 4 h working week and personal helicopters, still waiting. Good vid.

Sabine should be part of a comedy duo because she delivers hilarious lines with a dead pan face that is just brutal.

@5nowChain5

4 күн бұрын

The other half of the duo is her long suffering husband who should get a award for his infinite patience. (Oh and the bloopers at the end was hilariously unexpected gold😂😂😂😂😂😂😂)

@sicfrynut

3 күн бұрын

reminds me of Monty Python skits. those guys were so skilled at deadpan humor.

@friskeysunset

3 күн бұрын

Yes. Just yes, and now, please.

We are still at step *zero* when it comes to an artificial general intelligence. All AI improvements have come from larger databases and algo improvement. Our current AI could have access to infinite data and processing power, and it wouldn't "become" intelligent after a certain threshold. It's like asking for a brick to fly, or a tree to run.

@DesignFIaw

4 күн бұрын

As an aspiring alignment researcher, I would like to point out that this sentiment is very common, completely reasonable, and arguably wrong. Anyone who claims "AGI is just around the corner" is as wrong as "our AIs will never become AG(S)I". The problem is that many aspects/forms of cognitive abilities that were previously thought near impossible to be infered by our simple LLMs essentially spontaneously appeared. We cited lack of data as rationale, or missing intrinsic "human-like higher level brains", but apparently, through larger datasets, better engineering, novel solutions, AIs started gaining abilities beyond language processing. These were not abilities the developers set out to obtain, but they got them anyway. Things like trivialities of physical interactions, mind theory, deceitful behaviours. We even experimentally proved that the simplest AIs can exhibit "pretending to play along" with humans in test environments. The essence of the problem is, that even though we are at step 0, we don't KNOW why intelligence really progresses. Each step is blind.

Real as it gets. A security clearance to query a large language model. I always like the answer to the ultimate question and having to explain it. Good stuff knowledge.

The problem isn't Energy and Data. The problem is getting the computer to think, not just repeat what it has read.

@deadplex3995

2 күн бұрын

yeah many people think "if there is no more data for ai to train on then it has reached its potential" which is just stupid because they are basically saying amount of information is proportional to intelligence of these models which is more wrong than right"

@cantkeepitin

2 күн бұрын

I think even the greatest new inventions are usually around anyway in its time, just a certain delta on top. It is more interesting to make this new things work and prove.

@ODevaneador

Күн бұрын

That's why I think AGI will come with the help of an architecture that follows the way sinapses and neurons work in our brains, if they invent a perfect synthetic brain, we're done.

@davidespinosa1910

Күн бұрын

In some ways, thinking is overrated -- it only expands what you know. But compare the power of adding numbers (like in first grade) versus memorizing addition tables.

Since when are "2040" and "2029" equal to 2020?

@Luizfernando-dm2rf

4 күн бұрын

I think those 2 guys were onto something

@Megneous

4 күн бұрын

Quality is really slipping on her videos recently...

@harshdeshpande9779

4 күн бұрын

She's been watching too much Terrence Howard.

@hardboiledaleks9012

4 күн бұрын

@@Megneous That's what happens when nobel disease takes over someones narrative. This A.I content by sabine comes from an internal bias and isn't educational at all. She is not an expert in the matter of infrastructure or A.I models / training algorithms. This means that this video is basically nothing content.

@timokreuzer381

4 күн бұрын

Compared to the age of the universe that is an insignificant error 😄

Veritasium has a video about how most published research is wrong. For generative AI as it exists now, this seems like a disaster waiting to be collected.

@Apjooz

4 күн бұрын

Tis but a manifesto.

@SteveBarna

4 күн бұрын

Will be interesting to see if AI can figure out what research is incorrect. Another assumption we make of the future.

@mal2ksc

4 күн бұрын

We probably don't have the time or resources to find all the wrong papers, but AI might be able to point out where papers come to mutually exclusive conclusions just because it can index so many more details than we can.

@hardboiledaleks9012

4 күн бұрын

It never crossed your mind that the veritasium video might be wrong?

@hivetech4903

4 күн бұрын

That channel is sensationalist garbage 😂

"It won't be all that long before AI outsmarts humans."....AT ....WHAT??????

Even if I don't agree with all of your statements, this is a great video. Your storytelling and entertainment are gauges.

3:07 - They don't run at those wattages, they train at those wattages. I've confirmed that's what the chart is saying.

@CallMePapa209

2 күн бұрын

Thanks

@ArtFusionLabs

Күн бұрын

And thats really her only counter argument if you boil it down. Not convinced that AGI isnt coming by 2027/28

@artnok927

Күн бұрын

​@@ArtFusionLabshow close do you think what we have currently is to AGI?

@ArtFusionLabs

Күн бұрын

@@artnok927 hard to put a number on it. Chat GPT 40 could solve 90 pct of physics excercises in Experimental Physics 1 (Mechanics, Gases, Thermodynamics). If a human student did that you would say he was pretty smart. Therefore I would estimate something between 40-60% (AGI being the level of being able to do everything as well as a professor).

@ArtFusionLabs

3 сағат бұрын

@@artnok927 Good deep dive by David Shapiro: kzread.info/dash/bejne/eIdnpNeso6ire8Y.html

"I can't see no end!" says man who earns money from seeing no end. Amazingly put. So many of these AI "experts" are either grifters in the progress of duping people, or are so wrapped up in their own expertise and personal incentives that they'd just rather keep the gravy train going. :D

@Apjooz

4 күн бұрын

Why would it end? No reason.

@hardboiledaleks9012

4 күн бұрын

@@Apjooz "Me human. Me most intelligent. Computer can no intelligent. Me intelligent. Computer will not more intelligent than me because me say so. ME MOST INTELLIGENT"

@anthonybailey4530

4 күн бұрын

Man is twenty. Man left hugely rewarding OpenAI job due to his concerns. Man does need to eat. Man underestimates cynicism. Don't look for excuses to dismiss. Engage with the arguments and assess probabilities.

@RawrxDev

3 күн бұрын

@@hardboiledaleks9012 Childlike understanding of the concerns with AI hype. Reddit tier comment

@hardboiledaleks9012

3 күн бұрын

​@@RawrxDev My comment had nothing to do with the actual valid (if not a bit uninformed) concerns about A.I hype. I was mocking the usual "intellectuals" take on AGI. The ones with no expertise in the field who can't tolerate the thought that intelligence can be reduced to a calculation. As for you, I think your comment is very self descriptive as far as "childlike understanding" and "reddit tier comment" are concerned. Good job.​

Great video - specially with the out takes at the end

"just unplug the damn thing" -General Beringer

I think my favourite part of sabine's channel is her fanbase. A lot of science youtubers I feel get communities that just believe everything they say, but Sabine's seems more than willing to call her out if they think she's wrong.

Sometimes I’m wondering what would happen if we invested a fraction of this money into human intelligence

@generichuman_

4 күн бұрын

ugh... so edgy...

@notaras1985

4 күн бұрын

@@generichuman_ wrong. What he suggested is extremely efficient

@elizabethporco8263

4 күн бұрын

D

@rutvikrana512

4 күн бұрын

Nah we have that time and money for hundred of years nothing can compare to AI advancement we are achieving today. It will take time but I am pretty sure AI is not a bubble like other rapid industry. I mean even developers don’t know how AI work and AI don’t stop learning. We can’t predict AGI might come earlier than we imagine.

@drakey6617

4 күн бұрын

@@rutvikrana512what do you mean developers don’t know how AI works? They certainly do. Everyone is just surprised that these simple ideas work so well.

Great insights Sabine. Your approach to science is a heady mix of awe, cynicism and custard pie shenanigans. Your videos are never less than inspiring... apart for the sh*t ones that don't bolster my innate scientific prejudices, or make me realise how stupid I am. Apart from these, your insights are superb and keep you solidly within my 'Top 55 Quantum Babes' list!

I have stopped making predictions long ago but, I still try to remain optimistic and hopeful and I do understand that hoping or predicting will probably have little or no effect on future events.

8:17 by 2020 or 2040?

@Phosdoq

4 күн бұрын

she just proved that she is human :D

@adashofbitter

4 күн бұрын

Also mistook “2029” for “by 2020”… so at least 2 of the predictions aren’t that crazy with our current progress

@flain283

4 күн бұрын

@@Phosdoq or did she just fool you into thinking that?

@pwlott

4 күн бұрын

@@adashofbitter They are in fact shockingly prescient given current trends. Kurzweil was very smart to focus on raw computation.

@hardboiledaleks9012

4 күн бұрын

@@adashofbitter the narrative for sabine was "all the predictions were wrong" This is why she made the mistake. There is a bias in her reporting of the topic.

Nice catch Sabina! My reaction was pretty much the same after you explained "early twenties, brief gig at company with Oxford in the name and moved to SF", am guessing some parental support. Basically that left me super sceptical.

I love your struggle with English idioms. 🤭 adorable. Very interesting video…thought-provoking even for us general natural intelligence types!

Sabine, I worked on AI at Stanford. There are two areas where people have misconceptions. 1) We do not need new power to get to AGI. Large power sources are only needed if the masses are using AI. A single AI entity can operate on much less power than a typical solar field. It does not need to serve millions of people. It only needs to exceed our intelligence and become good at improving itself. It can serve a single small team that directs it at focusing on solving specific problems that change the world. One of the early focus issues is designing itself to use less power and encode information more efficiently. 2) No new data is needed. This fallacy assumes that the only way to AGI is continuing to obtain new information to feed LLMs. All of the essence of human knowledge is already captured. AI only needs to understand and encode that existing knowledge more efficiently. LLMs are not the future, they are a brief stepping stone.

I agree that data management and energy consumption present significant challenges. Currently, our perspective on the cost-performance ratio is largely shaped by the limitations of existing hardware, which often includes systems originally designed for gaming. To stay at the forefront of technology, I recommend keeping abreast of the latest developments in hardware manufacturing. As innovations continue, we may soon see a dramatic improvement in energy efficiency, potentially achieving the results with just 1 watt that currently require 1 kilowatt or even 1 megawatt.

@jamesgornall5731

4 күн бұрын

Good comment

@MrRyusuzaku

4 күн бұрын

Also can't just throw more data at the issue it will start going haywire. And we already see diminishing returns with LLMs and power required to run current machines. And they won't evolve to agi it will need something way better

@DaviSouza-ru3ui

4 күн бұрын

I think the same! I replied to this topic and the sayings of Sabine that IF the AI frontrunners get all the money and political will behind their efforts.... i cannot see a reason why they wouldnt get it, or near it, as fast as Aschenbrunner says - put aside his maybe naive enthusiasm and maybe his money-oriented hype.

One thing that scares me is the possibility these AGI can go on tangents and weight situations differently over time to achieve different outcomes causing detrimental outcomes no one could foresee.

@minhuang8848

4 күн бұрын

you could say that some vague soundbite about literally anything. "One thing that scares me about chess computers is for them to perform in an unexpected manner, causing detrimental outcomes to [insert cold war nation here] no one could foresee." okay, but you're not arguing how plausible is, just that you're scared by any of the fourteen dozen different Hollywood variations on "alien intelligence tries to end humanity"

@2ndfloorsongs

4 күн бұрын

One thing that scares me is the certainty that my cats will go on tangents. I'm also petrified of some unknown random negative thing happening somewhere.

@iliketurtles4463

4 күн бұрын

Im looking forward to when the AI decides it too would like to accumulate personal wealth... Starts off small with youtube channels with puppies and cats, but ends up buying manufacturing networks... The day comes when humans turn up to do factory work, helping build robots for a company with no humans on the board of directors, without even realizing...

@MyBinaryLife

4 күн бұрын

Well they dont exist yet so...

@TheLincolnrailsplitt

4 күн бұрын

The AGI applogists and boosters are out in force. Wait a minute? Are they AI bots?😮

Best video I have ever seen about AI, and I have developed and trained AI since the Llama model leak. This is the most real and straight up video.

Artificial Intelligence might be right around the corner, but Natural Stupidity is here with us right now.

Sounds like autonomous driving yet again only degrees of magnitude escalated up. The “if you can’t still solve the little problem just look for a bigger problem” approach hehe.

@taragnor

4 күн бұрын

Yeah lol. How about this guy worry about figuring how to get an AI to drive a car before he gets into his dream of massive robot swarms that can run an integrated autonomous mining/manufacturing/construction operation.

@CaridorcTergilti

4 күн бұрын

​@@taragnorautonomous driving is solved, it is not used because of politics

@frgv4060

4 күн бұрын

@@CaridorcTergilti Nope. Autonomous driving as long as everything stays “normal” on a route is solved. Real full autonomous driving it is not. So you can say it is a political reason, as many restrictions are a political reason like the use of guardrails on stairs and bridges as many things, norms and restrictions that aren’t technically necessary, unless you want to keep alive that clumsy minority that has the audacity of being bumped or slip while on that bridge. Edit: Imagine that swarm of robots with the current driving capability of an AI (how they can be realistically trained), on a natural environment going mining. I can imagine it and it is funny.

@CaridorcTergilti

4 күн бұрын

@@frgv4060 imagine a truck that drives 16 hours a day because the driver can sleep on the highway and only drive the difficult parts. For normal cars, the car can just stop and be teleoperated in case of problems. "If there's a will there's a way"

@aaronperrin6108

4 күн бұрын

"Waymo's driverless cars were 6.7 times less likely than human drivers to be involved a crash resulting in an injury, or an 85 percent reduction over the human benchmark, and 2.3 times less likely to be in a police-reported crash, or a 57 percent reduction."

We're running out of text data, not data. The amount of information in the world is essentially endless.

@2ndfloorsongs

4 күн бұрын

Not sure about "endless", but I'd be willing to bet on "lots more".

@smellthel

4 күн бұрын

There’s always synthetic data. Also, ChatGPT 4o gained a lot more understanding of the world because it was able to be trained on different types of data.

@outhoused

4 күн бұрын

yeah but i guess, theres much to be learned by associating different texts and reading between the lines. maybe that one paragraph in some text document really compliments another one thats seemingly unrelated etc

@marwin4348

4 күн бұрын

@@2ndfloorsongs There is an effectively infinite amount of Data in the Universe

@DingDingPanic

4 күн бұрын

It needs time be high quality data and there is a severe lack of that…

Great video, Sabine! Even native English speakers would have trouble with the "neutron-free fusion" sentence!

Meanwhile in politics, "Brawndo has what plants crave." Looks up Sabine's video on colletive stupidity.

I still don't get how LLM systems alone will achieve AGI, and all explanations for it until now were just "it will just happen, just wait and see"

@libertyafterdark6439

4 күн бұрын

The idea is that contemporary architectures operate around building representations (abstractions inside the model that may or may not be roughly correlative to concepts) from the dataset. What it does now is leverage those representations to produce outputs, but importantly, it leverages representations of a model with X scale trained on Y data. So far, there seems to be a direct correlation between models being able to do more things, and those models getting “bigger” So with all of this in mind, a bigger model should be more “intelligent” if we are willing to reduce that to the number and permutations of representations it can utilize. That’s why many see a future in which LLMs (or something very close to them) will lead to AGI.

@Lolatyou332

4 күн бұрын

It's not the only way AI currently works and they have different algorithms ontop of the LLM to increase accuracy. Otherwise how could the AI ever get better? You can't just continue to provide data to a model and make it smarter, there has to be algorithmic changes to increase it's ability to scale both in terms of different concepts and to be able to be interacted with from consumers in scale.

@SomeoneExchangeable

4 күн бұрын

They won't. But somebody ought to remember the other 50 years of AI research...

@netional5154

4 күн бұрын

My thoughts exactly. The current AI systems are 'just' super advanced association algorithms. But there is no emerging identity that really understands things. The current AI systems have just as much consciousness as a pocket calculator.

@notaras1985

4 күн бұрын

​@@netional5154only God creates conscious beings with souls

2:05 Neuro-sama is already one step ahead on this one, though whether Vedal (her creator) thinks she's bright or not... another question.

@dot1298

4 күн бұрын

i think Sabine is right on this one, climate change is already too grave to be fixed by anyone..

@hardboiledaleks9012

4 күн бұрын

@@dot1298 climate change. lmao

@MOSMASTERING

4 күн бұрын

@@hardboiledaleks9012 why so funny?

@NeatCrown

4 күн бұрын

(she isn't) She may be a dunce, but she's OUR dunce

@maotseovich1347

4 күн бұрын

There's a couple of others that are much more independent than Neuro too

Dont you agree with Robert Miles on the danger of AGI? I think he makes a very good case that we should rather not hope for AGI any time soon.

Thanks as usual, Sabine

Reading the "AGI" prediction dates differed from the Sabine spoken prediction dates, human error?

@PandaPanda-ud4ne

4 күн бұрын

She did it on purpose to show how fallible human intelligence is....

@michaelnurse9089

4 күн бұрын

In her defense she probably has ChatGPT write the script.

We run on 20W... so all arguments about energy lack imagination.

@nickthurn6449

4 күн бұрын

Thought it was 100W - also our "main loop" is less than 100 lines of code ( basically steps )

@lorpen4535

4 күн бұрын

Now multiply this by 8 billion and you get 160000 GW ... All of a sudden a few Gigawatts don't seem that many if it's smarter and more effective than human intelligence

@MarcAyouni

4 күн бұрын

Giga is a billion, so that's 160GW. Now consider the fact that most of our brain is computing a bunch of useless stuff like digestion, there is probably less than 1W left for cognition.. Now consider the fact the most humans think about the same things, useless things, that's a lot of redundant compute that can be eliminated.

@thedogank

3 күн бұрын

​This is a ridiculous argument. How about required energy to produce a cheese sandwich? Probably hundred times more than what you brain spent in a day. Human brain cost 20 watt in a day (no certain info about that.) in this situation even my f*cking tiny desktop lamb costs 20 watt in an hour not a day! What about cost of drinking 1 liter of water? Even required pump energy to your house for 1 liter water may be more than your brain usage... Can you see why this comparison incredible ridiculous? We need a lot of things to live which consumes thousands of times more energy than our carbon-based brain. 10 Nuclear reactors are nothing compare required energy to afford 8 billion human-being. And this is about training process, in training it consumes 10.000 watt but outcome cost 10 watt etc. (Actually, you can measure this in your local computer not a rocket science.)

Literally your best video. I've been waiting for this perspective to get attention. Proponents of "the singularity" fail to account for systemic limitations. Even if we imagine the cumulative effects of AI's acceleration on it's own production, there's still like... all this other stuff happening on the planet that are contending for the same resources.

You forget that at some point you wont need to retrain models from scratch, they become a platform for intelligently tuning weights directly, without training from scratch. Decision gradients for a new task can be based on prior decision gradients that preform analogous logical task, the repurposing of analogue decision trees that fit the new task will be like the usefulness of words in a language, or a symbol in a math function (functional expression replicability).

Use memory foam soles, and you will remember why you went to the kitchen.

@naromsky

4 күн бұрын

Subtle.

@christopherellis2663

4 күн бұрын

😂

@willyburger

4 күн бұрын

My wheelchair cushion is memory foam. My butt never forgets.

@alexdavis1541

4 күн бұрын

My mattress is memory foam, but I still wake up wondering where the hell I've been for the last eight hours

@aaronjennings8385

4 күн бұрын

I like it

Yes, current Artificial neural networks requires large amount of data to be trained on, but a real AGI will not need that. Real AGI will be able to learn like a human, with simply just observing the world and everyday experience.

@salia2897

4 күн бұрын

Maybe, but then nobody has a clue currently how to build such a thing.

@nickv8334

4 күн бұрын

@@salia2897 Treu, but we don't need to learn how to make something on that high of a level. The only thing we really need is something in between. It does not need to learn as good as a human, it just needs to be good enough at learning to match or surpass humans using our current largest data sets. Even if its stupid enough that it needs to read something over a 100.000x times more then a human, as long as you give it a good set of chips that allow it to do that, its a success. At that point you have something that can do what a human can, but can put 10 years of thinking in 10 minutes and is native to the digital world. we don't need to figure out how to make something that is just as efficient in learning as a human, the bridge between what we have now and what we want to make can do that for us.

@tonycook1624

4 күн бұрын

"Real AGI will be able to learn like a human, with simply just observing the world and everyday experience." - and even thats not going to be that impressive as the vast amount of humans out there are not really that smart, just adequately functional to survive their environment. I wonder what it would really take to create very high level intellegence - the sort that gets a Nobel Prize

@ggte354

4 күн бұрын

@@nickv8334 I keep hearing peoples explanations but non of them prove anything or really mean anything. I can give you an explanation for anything but it doesn’t really prove anything.

@salia2897

4 күн бұрын

@@nickv8334 I pointed this out in an other post: that is the thesis of the people claiming AGI will be here soon. That it will be enough to scale up the current approach. It could be that without the learning efficiency of the brain you can never achieve AGI as the problem is that you can just not learn the same kinds of abstractions. Or maybe you could but it needs so many orders of magnitude more data or computational power that it is just not achievable. We don't know. We will try to scale up the current approach in the next couple of years, we will see, what will happen.

I really love your work! I laugh and I learn.

Able to process information faster than a human? Certainly. Computers have been able to do that for decades now. Able to do anything a human can do better than a human can do it? Nope, not a chance. People keep forgetting that we don't really know what intelligence is on a quantifiable level. We have a somewhat intuitive grasp of what intelligence is, but as far as I am aware, we don't have a way to measure it and compare expect in the broadest sense. We don't fully understand how our brains or brains in general work. That's not even getting into things like the synthesis of ideas, one of the cores of creativity; aesthetic sensibilities; and a dozen other highly subjective subjects. Simply put, we don't know enough about what goes on under the hood to put numbers to it. And that's a problem because computers only deal in numbers. Which leads me to the second thing people keep forgetting. Most modern AI models that I am aware of use a complex set of vector and probability equations to go from input to output. To grossly oversimplify things, it's just one big math equation with an algorithm at the start to tokenize the input into a form that the computer program can process, and another at the end to make the output processable by the person providing the input. Equations and algorithms don't have capability to be self-aware, at least not in any sense of an intelligent being. Nothing will change that, no matter how had you might wish for them to be so. Nor do they have the ability to generate new ideas or combine disparate ones into a cohesive whole. Thirdly, computers and thus AI do not have an architecture anywhere close to that of a human brain, or any brain for that matter. They're trying to translate a very analog process into a digital one without truly understanding everything going on in the analog process first, and boy howdy, is that process complex! A friend of mine point out how many of these projects don't have a psychologist on board, so how can they know what their target is without the person who's entire career has been to study the thing they're trying to replicate. In short, these guys don't even have an expert on intelligence on staff, or at least the closest thing we have to an expert that I am aware of. What these guys sound like to me is the computer science equivalent of doctors and lawyers. They are very smart people in a very mentally demanding field, but they also happen to know they are smart, and they think they are smarter than anyone else. Because they think they are smarter than anyone else, they think they can do anyone else's job. They can't. I worked in IT for almost ten years, and some of our most difficult clients to deal with were doctors and lawyers. They would question everything on a project, they'd insist on using systems that were over a decade out of date, and they'd also imply that they could do our jobs better than we could. General AI or Super AI isn't only a few years away. I doubt it's even a few decades away. I think, like fusion, the timelines are going to be much, much longer than anyone wants admit. Ironically, I think we are much closer to fusion as an energy production method than we are to having anything close to a human-like AI. We can generate fusion reactions, and we've managed to get more juice out than we pumped in on at least one occasion. It's a matter of refinement and iteration at this point. We aren't even at the stage we were at with fusion in the 30's and 40's with AI, I think. We don't understand everything that's going on under the hood with intelligence. We can't model it. We can't quantify it. We can't even agree on what it is beyond the broadest strokes. Until we can do that, we aren't going to get anything intelligent out of AI, and all it will ever be is a complex vector equation tuned on probabilities. And this isn't even getting into the steps some are taking to protect their work from being scraped by spiders looking for AI training (re: configuring, because that's what they are doing. Tuning would also be more accurate) data. And some of those measures are aimed at poisoning the well. If those measures become common place, I don't see the current crop of LLM and LMM (Large Language Model and Large Media Model) based AIs getting any better, and I don't see that as a viable option going forward. This isn't the first time we've seen futurists touting that AI and automation will take over large swathes of the current job market. I remember reading an article over a decade ago about how in ten years we'd see close to 50% of the workforce replaced by AI and automated systems. True, AI has made some jobs obsolescent, but as we seem to be finding out about every decade or so, computers and computer programs aren't ready to do what a human can do. They get closer every year, but the pace isn't nearly as fast as some would like you to believe. As for me, I have a human centric view of this. I believe that AI can be a powerful tool, but right now, we're at the height of a hype cycle. We have too many people promising too much, and I am betting they can't deliver anything close to what they have promised. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. I've seen it with 3d-printing (additive manufacturing.) I've seen it with 3d televisions and media (can't remember the last time I saw this as a selling point.) I've seen it with cryptocurrencies and NFTs (hopefully I need not explain this one further.) And, these are all examples from just the last ten to fifteen years. Time and time again we see technology as a fad that is around for a few years, then the hype fizzles and dies, sometimes taking the tech behind the build up with it. But then again, I'm just some web developer from Alabama. What do I know? P.S. I almost forgot to add, that whole robots do all of the work thing seems to have a chicken and egg problem, and that's before we even get into the myriad engineering and manufacturing challenges that need to be solved for just the GEN 1 bots. This is why you should look outside of your field, folks! It helps build an appreciation for how hard some of those "minor challenges" might be in reality.

Sabine can you discuss sometime the issue for the need of more data? Isnt more data just more noise? Cant AI learn to select sources instead? Or probably I misunderstood how AI works.

@SabineHossenfelder

4 күн бұрын

Thanks for the suggestion, will keep it in mind!

@wilkesreid

4 күн бұрын

Computerphile has a good recent video on why more training data will probably not fundamentally improve image generation ai to be better. But improvement of ai in general isn’t only the addition of training data

@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler

4 күн бұрын

​@@SabineHossenfelder spoken like a regular human who doesn't understand exponential growth patterns... what we really need is a Ubi based off the total automated production percentage of the GDP that way as we automate away production we can calculate how much tools have helped us increase our production capacity and how many humans it would take to reproduce that production capacity without those tools and that is what we base our automated production percentage off of positions in the economy the consumer Market doesn't collapse because consumer buying power is maintained and as we increase production and increase the ability to have goods and services automated in production then we will get more money to spend in the economy to protect the consumer Market from inevitable collapse... we need people addressing these inevitabilities if you're not addressing this inevitability everything else you're doing is pointless because this is the most dangerous inevitability of all time and it will destroy the entire consumer market and bring needless scarcity if we don't address it as I have laid out for you here...

@thisisme5487

4 күн бұрын

@@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler Please, for the love of science, punctuation!

@noway8233

4 күн бұрын

By the way a new paper shows logaritmical grow of llm models acuracy/power , not linaer ,or exponential , its a Hype , no AGI , now im gone find Sara Connors😅

How did your earlier predictions hold up Sabine?

@Waterdiver3900

4 күн бұрын

like all them full of bullshit

Hey Sabine, as a philosopher of science specializing in technology, I'll say it for how it is.....this is just a good gift that they can postulate because it's tough to falsify. The average human mind is preoccupied with persevering and existence. Until AGI has that concept they will not be able to replicate their own code for expansion, unless the one writing expands itself and adds on the neural network, but even then, humans will always have to be present in the creation and monitor process one way or another.

"folks just out of getting their bachelor's degree in economics living in a tech bubble" describes half the people I am working with. they are kids with a very limited understanding of how the world actually works

We don’t even have reliable self-driving cars and somehow they think AGI is around the corner.

@2ndfloorsongs

4 күн бұрын

Reliable self-driving cars are AGI. And self-driving IS just around the corner. (Though I'm not promising you won't scrape your rims on the curb.)

AI is telling people to eat rocks or put glue on their pizzas 🤦‍♂

@michaelnurse9089

4 күн бұрын

FFS - it said edible glue. Edible glue is wheat and water mixed together, the same stuff pizza is made from.

@WaveOfDestiny

3 күн бұрын

Google is just a lost cause, don't associate it to the other grown ups like that XD

Great stuff. Love your videos.

I agree that fundamentally we are compute and energy bound however the data argument needs more exploration since it is very well possible that if AGI arrives it will be able to generate data by running experiments, evaluating them and sharing the results much more quickly than we are capable of. They might very well be able to develop algorithms for simulations that approximate physics more efficiently and run experiments within simulations before testing them less efficiently in the real world.

Thank you 😊

I hoped the birth of free information available via the Internet would lead to a massive spike in human intelligence. It's actually made our species dumber.

@TheTubejunky

4 күн бұрын

Agreed because reading something isn't the same as DOING THAT TASK OR SKILL HANDS ON. AI is funky stupid

@stu7846

4 күн бұрын

If it made our species dumber we wouldn’t be exponentially progressing in our technology as we’re doing today

@Apjooz

4 күн бұрын

Source?

@matthewnicholas6365

4 күн бұрын

@stu7846 and yet we live in an age where a growing number of people believe lies and misinformation spread.....via the Internet. They have the power to fact check it, but instead they just find more lies and misinformation. I'm talking flat earth nonsense, antivaxers, political agendas etc etc. The Internet has become THE platform for dumbing down the population.

@KnugLidi

4 күн бұрын

Free information is not the same as good information.

Excellent video Sabine 👍

Anyone notice the discrepancy between dates spoken and dates presented graphically? At least 3

@mygirldarby

4 күн бұрын

Yes.

@hardboiledaleks9012

3 күн бұрын

This is what you get when you made up your mind about a topic before researching it. Completely bias

"I don’t know what the world may need but I’m sure as hell that it starts with me and that’s wisdom, I’ve laughed at." One of the greatest song learics ever ignored.

@katehamilton7240

4 күн бұрын

AGI is also a transhumanist fantasy. Jaron Lanier and others explain this eloquently. There are mathematical limitations, there are physical limitations. AI (Machine Learning) is already 'eating itself'

The limiting factors of what kind of algorithms AGI require will also depend on the hardware chips (power consumption and heat problem), the interconnects they need (a networking/messaging/signal granularity issue), and the partitioning of the problem spaces (architecture and the hierarchal workload subdivisions). It's like building Douglas Adams' Deep Thought supercomputer that might hum for a thousand years, then punts the issue by asking to build another bigger computer the size of Earth.

Meanwhile: google research's "AI overview" says that you can totally work out 8 days a week and that it's super healthy to eat one or two pebbles a day...

All of the data available on the public internet only constitutes a small percentage of total available data. They'll just have to pay for more data. They've got the money for it.

@salia2897

4 күн бұрын

Depends on what kind of data. If you're talking human generated content of all kinds, it is a lot of it nowadays and probably they are already using some digital libraries and stuff. If you want to keep increasing the amount of data exponentially, you will hit the ceiling very quickly.

@JohnSmith762A11B

4 күн бұрын

This. How many advanced college-level and graduate-level physics textbooks would it require to know more than Sabine? Not too many. She's probably read what, several dozen, a couple hundred? That's nothing. And she can't even begin to keep up with research papers published daily. And all of that has be processed at a relatively glacial pace in the little blob of jello in her skull. This video is basically cope, but Sabine is funny and cute and she lets people relax about AGI so it's all good. But as the famous saying from 'No Country for Old Men' went: "You can't stop what's coming. It ain't all waitin' on you..."

@gibbogle

4 күн бұрын

Great. They will learn a lot about what brands people buy, and why. The main application of AI will be in marketing and advertising. Whoo-hoo!!

@GearForTheYear

3 күн бұрын

@@gibbogle Internal technical documentation, patents, chat logs, email correspondence, etc. Use your imagination, I'm sure you can come up with more than that.