As a homeowner I hope house prices plummet in the near future. People need to start seeing houses as shelter rather than investments.

@Bevan1988

Жыл бұрын

I don't disagree with your sentiment regarding shelter instead of investments. But assuming you have a mortgage, plummeting house prices would mean that the interest rates on your mortgage will increase due to negative equity. Therefore you would end up paying higher monthly payments to service the debt. Only someone who owns a house outright would be unaffected. And those people are generally not the young/working people.

@zanderw1199

Жыл бұрын

Pffft tell that to landlords

@Bevan1988

Жыл бұрын

@@zanderw1199 - What's your point?

@Dr.Stacker

Жыл бұрын

@@Bevan1988 bought 8 months ago after years of saving, hopefully doesn't happen on my watch haha despite putting in a 25% deposit I still dont feel 100% confident prices wont drop by that much :/

@Bevan1988

Жыл бұрын

@@Dr.Stacker - Exactly I bought a year ago in the same circumstances. Took 12years to save enough. If interest rates skyrocket I'd lose everything. I don't see my home as an investment but I sure don't want it to bankrupt me.

housing prices are one of the things that makes me feel the most divorced from governments and older generations. It's always so surreal to see doom and gloom news reports about falling housing prices, really shows who mass media caters to

@jonofpdx

2 жыл бұрын

That's...a tricky take. Like, I get where you're coming from. But it's a little simplistic. If the story was that house pricing is crashing because of an increase in supply that would be one thing. But there's still not enough supply. This isn't a distribution of wealth. It's just the tail end of the market beginning to redirect large capital investment away from residential real estate. Interest rates are gonna continue to be crap through this and a lot of people are gonna end up underwater with less access to credit and potentially spiking interest on ARM loans. Especially poorer home owners that ju.ped at the chance to get something during the pandemic. The market will be fine. It will always go up in the long term. And if a slump helps to redistribute inventory to more hands that's great. But it's gonna hurt a lot of people too. Including a lot of poor people--escpecially older people but not just them.

Fingers crossed! I'd love to be able to buy a house within the next century.

@Apollorion

2 жыл бұрын

You have good trust in the development of the medical technologies and your own income to think you can buy in the 22nd century!

@jezalb2710

2 жыл бұрын

Guys. Ye are ambitious.

@Edvinas_Bartkus

2 жыл бұрын

You most likely wont get a mortgage if this happens.

@MetaxaBill_2810

2 жыл бұрын

@@Apollorion twenty-twoth?

@andrewalltheway

2 жыл бұрын

​@@MetaxaBill_2810 Lol😂

the world needs a housing reform. Corporations shouldn't be allowed to hoard houses and jack up rents. It seems this problem plagues almost everywhere.

@AbAb-th5qe

2 жыл бұрын

@@zUJ7EjVD This is an economic war of attrition. Like who can hold their breath longest. China's ecomony is fake as they want to dominate the world and could not achieve that legitimally. They will come unstuck as a result.

@yuvalne

2 жыл бұрын

+

@afgor1088

2 жыл бұрын

@@zUJ7EjVD capitalists own most of the houses and China isn't doing so great either Their debt level is completely unsustainable and their economy is flatlining only being propped up by the largest money printing programme in human history

@benjaminmeusburger4254

2 жыл бұрын

@@zUJ7EjVD home owners most often don't care about the real estate prices - they have to live somewhere anyhow and have no reason to sell If they sell and move, then they tend to simply spend whatever they ear from the sell ...

@KaitlynFedrick

2 жыл бұрын

@@zUJ7EjVD It's both. Both people living in their homes and companies buying to rent want a return on their investment and it's not sustainable

I hope to god it’s bursts I wanna be able to buy a home in the next 20 years

@supermankelly

2 жыл бұрын

And for that reason it wont. To much demand.

@theawesomeshulk6412

2 жыл бұрын

@@supermankelly ah but there’s a difference between demand, and effective demand

@zee-star-system

2 жыл бұрын

And I also hope to God that one day housing is not treated as some investment vehicle to be traded around (and that more housing is built in general). The premise of treating property, the very land on this one rock we have, as something to trade around solely for gains seems insane to me. I hope I'm not the only one.

@JCdental

2 жыл бұрын

@@supermankelly wanting a house, and being able to afford one are different

@luisandrade2254

2 жыл бұрын

It’s worth remembering we’ve had 20 past predictions of a housing crash in the last 13 years and they all were wrong

When the purpose of property ownership shifted from being for a place to live to being an investment, we started down the unsustainable road towards this collapse.

One of the issues is that local governments are disincentivized to fix it as they are greatly dependent on property taxes. Therefore, good policies like mixed use zoning are placed on the back burner.

@parthn-musicforwork4789

2 жыл бұрын

@A B that aversion is most likely rational 😆

@Sentient_Blob

2 жыл бұрын

Don’t forget that house owning voters don’t want to fix the crisis because rising house prices make them think they are somehow richer (even though they’re never going to sell their house and actually get to use the money that their house has gained)

@jimmyjohn8008

2 жыл бұрын

It's really the banks that lend to the redevelopment... they really like to make sure there's adequate parking for there developments. My local municipality is always approving additional parking for redevelopment. But if someone want to redevelope a property with there own money and want to reduced parking requirement they get denied. But you know can't expect a business with an expected full capacity of 100 people to only have 10 parking spots.

@jimmyjohn8008

2 жыл бұрын

Also seen a single family residential lot get redeveloped into 4 town homes all with 2 car garages... even though parking on the street is allowed.

At the rate that things are going, the only way I'll ever be able to afford to buy a home is if there is a HUGE downswing and the bubble bursts, or a wealthy, unknown relative dies and leaves me millions. My wife and I both have full time jobs (I have two jobs), and we're relatively debt-free. And yet, house prices are so incredibly inflated that we'd never be able to make the down-payment, especially with rents increasing so drastically year-over-year.

@yabakgibumpti

2 жыл бұрын

Or we can hope for a war, after WW2 everything became a lot more affordable. We'll need another catastrophe to bring wealth equality back to normal methinks.

@stijnvdv2

2 жыл бұрын

the US and the UK might be able to raise interest rates, the EU however is NOT. They have kept selling garbage negative sovereign bonds to obligated buyers (pension funds and ECB and most banks). Now if you gonna raise interest rates, those bonds will be worthless in an instant and you see all these institutions go belly up. This would create another Great Depression and is a real problem for the future. Part of this is why all the luny virus scare and trying to seek war with Russia; the west and particularly the EU is trying to grab anything to default on their debts. The Russia war makes them able to default on outstanding debt to Russia while stealing Russian money to pay off other debt; the entire virus scare is for a new monetary communist system from the Davos scum, where governments could default on all debt without having to have the consequences... so they think.... I think it's all rather foolish and it isn't gonna work.

@SpeedfreakUK

2 жыл бұрын

If you can’t save a decent amount a month your outgoings are most likely too high. Probably rent. Your rent should be 25% of your income or less.

@TheHexicle

2 жыл бұрын

@@SpeedfreakUK lmao bro is really saying spend less money on rent, you do realise that rent level is linked with housing cost right? You must either be a child or rich to be this out of touch.

@marcombo01

2 жыл бұрын

The bubble is going to burst take this for sure, this situation is nothing new in the market yet greedy people never learn the lesson.

I’ve been a home owner for 16 years, and I couldn’t care less about how much it’s gone up in value, because it’s my home and I live in it. Once large companies started using houses as an investment vehicle the whole market went to hell.

@kokokokow1760

2 жыл бұрын

That's how they force you to go to work every day. If you could work 10 years only and make enough money during that time to buy a house and cover basic needs utilities you're alive, would you put up with the sh*t they're giving you at work? You'd probably quit at the first sight of problems or just crappy management behavior. It's much better to get a 30 year loan and work 40-50 years until you've saved enough for retirement. Meanwhile some good for nothing investor is living off your interest payments. Somehow people are OK with this arrangement and continue to support politicians who give tax cuts to the rich. I call this modern day feudalism.

@SchemingWeasel1

2 жыл бұрын

@@kokokokow1760 That is exactly the reason to vote for left socialist partys. Conservative liberals and right ones will never fix this fundamental problem in our society because of infinite growth on a planet with limited resources… i mean we even reached the point where coastal sand deposits used for concrete as example is getting more and more exhausted.

@wakey87

2 жыл бұрын

@@SchemingWeasel1 Your both missing a trick. Be that good for nothing investor, rent out your house to those leftist socialists and let them pay off your mortgage for you. It's not a bug, it's a feature.

@tooeasyy5287

2 жыл бұрын

The point is using your home as equity. You can borrow money using your equity as collateral, really huge if you wanted to start a business or take out a loan for rental properties or literally anything that requires large sums of money.

@davem3325

2 жыл бұрын

@@tooeasyy5287 quote"The point is using your home as equity. " Inst the point of using a house is TO JUST LIVE IN IT!!

In Munich, Germany a normal house sells for 1 - 1.5 mil € but the median income is 32k.

@luka1608

2 жыл бұрын

Then just live in Balkan countries and work in Germany

@tux407

2 жыл бұрын

Munich income is closer to 62k but the real estate is crazy in Munich same in Berlin and Frankfurt

@hoti47

2 жыл бұрын

The other commenters are right. Just move to the Balkans. TBH I'm seeing many new westerners in my country.

@Shini1984

2 жыл бұрын

Make 10 kids and employ them and BOOM - you can afford the house!

@luka1608

2 жыл бұрын

@@hoti47 Exactly i am right. Move to Balkans and from time to time work in Germany. Vacations are cheap for western standards, and not just that but you help balkans with population. I am telling this as balkaner. Best countries to move in are Bulgaria Serbia Montenegro and Croatia and Slovenia too. If you get rich enough then open bussiness in Switzerland or Serbia

The last time the housing bubble collapse in 2008, houses in my metro area (in California) fell an average of $300K, so houses were still at least 600K. If the market crashed today, houses in my area would cost $900K+ since the average house now is like $1.3M. Still out of reach of most people.

@startracksha

2 жыл бұрын

How can a sheetrock box costs1. 3m?

@oldskoolmusicnostalgia

2 жыл бұрын

Yes, this is the reality when one looks at actual figures rather than the agenda of media and politicians who cry about the bursting of housing bubbles that will affect old homeowners. But for the media it sells better to run stories - almost annually - about the end of the housing bubble rather than provide figures which show convincingly that, bubble or not, housing prices are not falling: they either increase substantially or remain stable for a while, even in those so-called market crashes.

Governments have allowed and are still allowing speculation on the housing market. Such a pity that a house is an essential commodity. Going tiny, like they do in countries like Japan, is useless because prices remains absurd and people get to live in rabbit hutches. Speculators will always try to squeeze out at least 10X your annual income to allow you to have some kind of property, no matter how luxurious or ready to collapse it is. State intervention is unavoidable.

@sacredgeometry

2 жыл бұрын

The increased commoditisation of everything has been destroying quality of life.

@idraote

2 жыл бұрын

@Zaydan Naufal house prices are still very steep, though and building quality is not outstanding. I would like to say that this concerns only people living in Tokyo but house prices are high everywhere in Japan. The only property you get to buy cheap are abandoned homes in rural areas but they usually need to be renovated. And firms that do renovations are not cheap either.

@vod96

2 жыл бұрын

The only reason housing has been speculated on is because of: A. Governments trying to artificially increase the number of home owners with risk-free lending (aka what caused 2008) causing more money to be available for housing - artificially increasing demand, rasing prices. B. Cities and Governments around the western world, decided they can tell property owners what they can and cannot do with the land they own - slowing down development - artificially casing a supply shortage, which raises prices as well. This information is demonstrable and consistent around western countries and the longer older generations feel fine with voting in politicians that force the housing market to be static, and younger generations keep voting in politicians that are "anti-gntrafication" - we're never going to see the end of this bubble.

@vod96

2 жыл бұрын

@Zaydan Naufal Japans public transportation is amazing!

@maximyles

2 жыл бұрын

This is just doomsday talk tbh, what makes you believe speculators are trying to squeeze 10x your annual income?

I never invested in crypto but I absolutely have been priced out of the housing market. My landlord wants to jack up my rent by about 20 percent (in Poland) when the new lease comes around. Let that bubble burst.

@sakakaka4064

2 жыл бұрын

In Poland, the prices are high because of the sudden influx of Ukrainian refugees and Russian political immigrants. The prices aren't going to go down for a long time.

@Polo1683Official

2 жыл бұрын

o kurwa.

@jonathanodude6660

2 жыл бұрын

@@sakakaka4064 youre assuming that people are living in these houses and arent buying them with the sole purpose of waiting for them to appreciate and reinvesting in a bigger place.

@lt2660

2 жыл бұрын

@@sakakaka4064 ? Why would ukranian refugees push up housing prices? They're not going to have the money to buy/rent.

@RomanLavandos

2 жыл бұрын

@@sakakaka4064 “property prices won’t go down any time soon” (C) most economic analysts in 2007-2008.

Dude. Id be all for this. I wanna own a house soon but not at these freaking prices

Hopefully. We've been waiting for the correction for a long time.

What does a 20% drop matter considering how much its all been climbing over the years? That's just a blip . I'd love to own a home, but I've lost hope at this point.

I've wanted my own place all my life. The last time things looked like it could work out for me was the 2008 housing crash but my government stepped in an propped up the housing market so that was the end of that.

A few points. First house prices have been detached from the fundamentals for almost thirty years. Second, demand is fueled by the number of households and these are increasing in number in almost every country even where the population is static or declining. Third, QE has pumped lots of money into economies, much of which has ended up in housing. Finally, the older generation who have benefited from years of house price inflation, have capital to invest and often do so in property since they gain rents and capital growth.

House prices will continue to rise in Australia for the short term, as both major parties in the current election have policies to increase the buying power of select groups. Hopefully over the next term the government enacts policy to deflate the market. This would be more likely under a hung parliament scenario.

In Hong Kong, if we talk about buying a house, we get laughed at. You can sign up for public housing programs, but you literally have to be poor, and you are not even owning the house, you are renting it from the government for a cheaper price compare to renting from the market. If you are a well-off middle-classmen (Who are too rich for public housing programs), you can signup for the Home Ownership Scheme (HOS), where everyone signed up gets randomly picked every year. If you get picked, the government usually offers you a few choices of locations to choose from where the apartment building is, then if you are able to paid off the mortgage, you own the house. So it is like private housing, except 1. The reason you sign up for HOS is because you can't afford private housing. 2. It is like winning a lottery as the number of available quota is around a thousand or two with more than half a million of people signing up for the scheme every year. The government always tells us that there isn't enough land to push their bullshit reclamation project which will cause us hundreds of billions of dollars when all the available land are occupied by rich people three story houses and cargo ship containers.

As a millennial priced out of the market I really hope the housing market crashes, and I hope it ruins the idea that houses are an investment. I hope the crash is so bad that it become a cultural taboo to own multiple houses. But what will actually happen is that corps will buy them up at rock bottom prices.

@daddo1600

2 жыл бұрын

Why do you want to buy a house then if not for an investment.

@LeafAnnie

2 жыл бұрын

@@daddo1600 You know... Maybe they wanna buy a house to like, live in? Kinda important imo

@JwadeProductions7

2 жыл бұрын

(In the US)it won't crash like it did in 08...you'll be looking at people who flip houses who bought too high and won't be able sell for what they bought and put Into it..they will take a huge hit. people who haven't had issues paying their mortgage will continue to pay their mortgages. VERY FEW homeowners have VRM. even if its used as a rental be it airbnb or leases.this only really hurts new buyers at first...but the market will equal...to get homes sold with high interest they will have to bring costs down to get the homes sold...you might run into a 6-8%intrest rate but once they bring rates down you can refinance...dont know if that helps you at all but I hope it does.

@jonathantaylor6926

2 жыл бұрын

He doesn’t like getting wet when it rains?

@daddo1600

2 жыл бұрын

@@LeafAnnie But you could rent a house and live in it... why buy a house? You're stuck in that house then, renting gives you more freedom... you don't need ot save a huge deposit or maintain the house.....

It depends on your local situation. I live in a country where there are 9 homes per 10 families, so the prices aren't gonna come down to reasonable any time soon.

Buying houses in the developed world is one of the safest long term investments for people with money savings. The "crash" affects vulture investors who want a fast profit, not those who buy to secure their money in this hyperinflation environment. So let it crash.

@corbin8930

2 жыл бұрын

The “developed” world is also completely unsustainable. Imagine if every person on earth had the same quality of life as in the USA? How much pollution and natural resources would that use? It is far more likely that quality in developed places will get worse to allow developing countries to improve their economies.

@TheMaster4534

2 жыл бұрын

@@corbin8930 And for one man in the USA to have that quality of life? 200 Eastern European immigrants have to become domestic workers in subhuman contidions. 2000 children in China have to give up an innocent childhood to become slave labor. 10,000 Africans have to live in squalid conditions as disposable Nestlé workers.

its cute how ppl in the comments think that a recession will make housing affordable, when in reality it will benefit the government and the companies to buy lots of homes and inflate the prices again, repeating the cycle; houses should not be treated as an investment, but a commodity, this is where the problem comes from

@o9rgeronimo979

2 жыл бұрын

I'm counting on it.i have silver to purchase another home with

Government: *manipulates the interest rates in extreme and unprecedented ways* Also Government: "WhY hAs ThE hOuSiNg MaRkEt dEtaChEd FrOm FuNdAmEnTaLs"

@Dolarhydes_Funkytown

Жыл бұрын

How do you have that username?

@Embassy_of_Jupiter

Жыл бұрын

@@Dolarhydes_Funkytown Because I killed an innocent man with a frog, now I must bear this mark forever

The historic mark for a successful and growing country used to be a median ratio of around 2-4. This means that nearly everyone can afford housing with funds left for purchasing and investment. Better housing availability and more flexible income remaining means more money moving around, means growing economy. Best case scenario, housing prices fully stagnate for at least 10 years while income grows quickly. Worst case scenario, prices continue to rise faster than wages leading to massive, inescapable collapse.

A house has tripled in australia in the past few years, I really hope it does.

Earlier this year I learned the average rent increase in my county was 37% in just 2021. There have been numerous houses sold on my street recently. I was curious as to what they were going for, so I had a look on the county property appraisers web site. Houses on my street have been selling for probably around 80% more than the ones sold in 2019 and early 2020. It's crazy.

@joestein6603

2 жыл бұрын

wtf

Hopefully it will. Paying (so much) for the basic necessity of shelter is obscene. Something has to be done to lower the prices. People (married couples) shouldn't be allowed to own more than one housing property, companies shouldn't allowed to own housing, etc.

The only people complaining about the cost of housing are those wanting to live in big cities - prime locations. Bought my first house at 23 with NO financial help, just a mortgage. Then bought a 5-bedroom house aged 27. I'm now 29. The problem is with buyers, not the market.

@MaHa-ql3zv

2 жыл бұрын

i feel (at least in Ireland where i live) that might have been true before covid lockdowns. now, rich people from cities bought up all the properties in the countryside. the house i own now i bought in 2019, and i really really wish ive chosen a house outside a city - it would have been up at least 100000 euro, not 30000 with my current house.

Here In Western NY State, they just did a housing tax evaluation and jacked up the the taxable value of peoples homes. Some valuations increasing as much as $100,000

Millennials waiting for it to burst but it just keeps going up

I kinda hope it crashes. Maybe then I'll be able to afford a place to live and I'll finally be able to get out of my depression. The current house prices are a mental burden on so many young people, so I think it would be a good thing if things went back to normal.

It has been incoming for over a decade. I have lost hope of a crash of meaningful proportions. I would hope it cataclysmic. I know that is extremely selfish and would suck for people in the process of paying back their mortgages but it really needs to be.

@schroederscurrentevents3844

2 жыл бұрын

I hope it’s not cataclysmic because they would ruin lives but a good crash would be very helpful. That said, most crashes happen in the spam of 8-12 years, and the last one was 2008; that’s 14 years. We’re not that overdue.

@sacredgeometry

2 жыл бұрын

@@schroederscurrentevents3844 We are well overdue exactly because the market has been artificially inflated and because wages have stagnated. If that hadnt happened then we wouldnt be.

@ASLUHLUHCE

2 жыл бұрын

A cataclysmic crash would likely only happen in a scenario where your income falls too

@sacredgeometry

2 жыл бұрын

@@ASLUHLUHCE Unlikely. My industry was literally accelerated by the pandemic, demand and wages are higher now than they were before. A housing crash probably wouldn't effect it predominately because it spans literally every single sector and market on the planet (and demand is high in every country). As I said I am aware that it is extremely selfish and I genuinely wouldnt wish that on anyone. Especially not right now with the cost of living and unemployment crisis. It was just a rant.

@ASLUHLUHCE

2 жыл бұрын

@@sacredgeometry ​ I meant I can only see a housing crash happening if the entire economy (and thus everyone's income) collapsed.

In the US, rising rent is also a driver of house prices. People are getting hit with 50% rent increases. With home ownership, at least you are able to fix your housing cost.

Don’t a lot of these policies just kick the housing bubble can down the road causing an eventually more sever problem?

Ive lived in different countries and it sucks when a large portion of homes in an area are vacant.

A great overview with alot of data to make this very digestable... Great work mate... Subscribed and smashed the like button harder than the cost of living.

I work for a UK bank in the mortgages team and we’ve seen interest rates on variable mortgages go up four times so far this year, which in some cases is an increase to theirs monthly payments of £100 or more. For those who are already behind on their mortgage, they’re hit the hardest as they can’t get on a fixed rate to reduce their payments while they owe money so their payments (which are already difficult to pay) are increasing even further.

@empty-ed

2 жыл бұрын

£100 extra per month ????? thats £25 per week !!!! who cares about such a measly amount ? If you cant afford an extra 25 a week you are living way beyond your expectations --- most of you probably dont have much longer than 40 years on the planet !! live life now because you are all controlled .

As someone who watches TLDR everyday yet doesn't fit your demographic. I remember in the 1970's being unable to buy a house, despite having a good salary. I was lucky that I was able to get social housing. Which I was subsequently able to buy, but not until the 1990's. So while I worry about this situation as my kids have very good salaries but are still unable to buy. Just pointing out that this situation is not unique, and has happened before. Hyper house price inflation in the 70's and has never really crashed since then or stopped rising.

@fajaradi1223

2 жыл бұрын

Maybe, one of possible cause for this situation is people still using property as an investment instrument.

@ericajohnson3504

2 жыл бұрын

@@fajaradi1223 totally agree with you. I don't agree with that way of thinking. Your home is not an investment opportunity, it is where you live and rising prices mean you can never get your money out, unless you downsize in later life, but that rarely happens, as you still need the space. That is a realisation you don't understand until after you retire. Then when it is sold off the money goes to your kids when you die or to pay care home fees. Some great investment that you can never use!

@iceniwargames6347

2 жыл бұрын

The difference is there is almost no social housing now, all the local councils sold their housing stock years ago.

@ericajohnson3504

2 жыл бұрын

@@iceniwargames6347 yes you are right, but the Government in the UK refused to allow Councils to build more with the sell off receipts. But then there is a societal attitude that only owning your own home is acceptable, which leads to excess demand and higher prices. Renters are disparaged and the Rental Stock is viewed as unacceptable. Private landlords do not keep their property in good condition, remaining social housing is viewed as being in unpleasant areas with Social Problems and no-one wants to live there. If Renting was seen as a more acceptable way of living things might change.

@adelaide7822

2 жыл бұрын

We can't get social housing either anymore, 6-10 year waiting lists here in the Netherlands..

These kinds of things always seem like a good thing to me though. These speculative bubbles are a cancer and you need to get rid of them. Better late than never.

It’s worth remembering we’ve had 20 past predictions of a housing crash in the last 13 years and they all were wrong

@dougal8812

2 жыл бұрын

Yeah, I think people fail to realise that it's not a bubble if there is a genuine supply shortage. In my opinion the only way house prices will drop is with either a LOAD more house building or a recession (and if it's a recession it'll only be temporary)

@rafaelglopezroman1110

2 жыл бұрын

@@dougal8812 it is a bubble if the product also sufffers from declining demmand, while the cost goes up. The pandemic gave us the ability to work from home which has been a saving grace for 52% of the young adult population that lives with their parents, they varely have any incentetive left to buy houses now thanks to that. This combined with declining birth rates and a global economy that is predicted to stagnate for the next decade, is safe to say housing has already reached peak demmand years ago. Meaning that even if they lower housing cost to affordable levels the number of people buying will continue to decrease essentially forever.

@adelaide7822

2 жыл бұрын

@@rafaelglopezroman1110 ^^

@frankkobold

2 жыл бұрын

@@rafaelglopezroman1110 nah, not really. Bc as usually, it depends. Cities are always more attractive, and there's were the shortage is. Sure, rural areas will be depopulated. But there you can already afford a house easily - but no one wants to live there^^

@Tony_Teacake

2 жыл бұрын

Different set of circumstances this time pal. A massive housing crash coming within the next 2 years. Property prices have increased over 20% in 2 years, now that is insane and it is not sustainable. Just like the stock markets, the housing market has been on steroids for the last 2 years. House prices have now hit their peak as for April growth was 0.3% which is a big drop if you compare to previous months of this year. Expect house prices to decline, although this will vary depending on where you live. Within the next 2 years we will see a housing crash like nothing before. All of this pent up demand we have seen during the pandemic will evaporate. You can forget the supply and demand argument because the economy is going to take a real significant downturn. The bond market is having its worst year in history and we are only in May. This will have a devastating effect on all housing markets. They are selling all over the world as interest rates are rising globally. This will hurt all financial assets. My advice is to people don’t get too confident about house prices not going down in the near future because you will be in for a big shock. A lot of people are saying this is different to 2008 I agree this is much worse. Only this time around we have had a global pandemic, 100s of billions of money printed for QE, rampant inflation, the highest records recorded for personal debts, a war and supply chain problems. This will be a lot worse than 2008, the demand for buying houses will just evaporate. In some areas expect between 30-50% drop. I know most of you will say no way but I can tell you the economy is going to collapse and we will be having a really deep recession. The BOE have got all their predictions wrong about inflation and will panic by the end of the year when they see inflation isn't going down, so the only thing they can do is be aggressive in raising interest rates which could be 10% by the end of 2023. Consumer confidence is really low and people have cut right back on spending. This will hit many business's profits and we will see many job cuts, it's already starting to happen. Also we will be seeing many business's go to the wall. Tenants won't be able to service their rents and many landlords will struggle and sell up losing lots of money. Like I said pal very big crash coming so get your ear plugs ready.

I blame governments far more than anything else, be it having high prices as a policy (pushing down interest rates to increase borrowing, buying up mortgage debt etc), or restrictions around building. Clinton/Bush for example used Fannie and Freddie to buy up subprime and really pushed that bubble while pushing down interest rates, and governments are still at it!!

@virgiljones4808

2 жыл бұрын

The Clinton/Bush issues have been off the books since 2012 - makes no sense to blame them for things going on now.

@nicosmind3

2 жыл бұрын

@@virgiljones4808 I'm not, I'm blaming governments for house bubbles in general (around the world) and the current policies on what I mentioned above (buying up MBSs etc) but also throwing out there that the 08 crisis both Clinton and Bush were to blame, and they both used GSEs to help create that bubble. Too many people blame deregulation and especially the removal of part of Glass-Seigal which I even believed myself for a while but it actually had nothing to do with the bubble. But I wasn't clear, could have worded that comment better.

Houses are unaffordable for most young people. I hope this bubble bursts soon and punish speculative buyers that are inflating the price of a basic human need.

2:15 The opposite happened to me. I bought my house because my landlady decided to sell our apartment while the prices were inflated. Would've been homeless if I didn't find another landlord selling his housing inventory to exit the rental market. I hate house-hoarding landlords with a passion.

Already started in London. Few buyers compared to sellers.

4% mortgage? Oh, horror! Poland says "hi" with 9% average.

In Belgrade, Serbia, cost of 60 sqrm apartment, at 5km from city centre was: 200€ per month in rent, 800 pre sqrm to buy. Now, rent is at 400, and cost to buy is 1800 per sqrm. Median salary in Belgrade is 600€ per month, and no one could afford it. On the other hand, on countriside whole farm could be bought for 10.000€.

In the US, if there is a crash it will only be regional. Look at an "overvaluation" map. Places like North Carolina, Florida, Boise, and Colorado where it is 40-70+% overvalued now will maybe see something of a crash, but I don't think it will be insane. But places on the east coast like NJ, PA, and NY, where it is only 8-12% overvalued will see more of a modest and gradual leveling out.

I think a really hard pop of the real estate bubble that bankrupts unfair property hoarders and sends house prices crashing down, is necessary. Especially since I have been priced out of the home owners’ market. If there is a massive pop of the bubble ,bankrupting corporations ,Im all for it.

There’s a new building estate being built in my village and some of the new prices are ridiculous. Some of the 3 bedroom homes cost upwards of 700k

I don't like seeing my country (New Zealand) on these videos, but they're not wrong. I really want to be able to buy my own house one day, so here's hoping the housing prices fall further.

@kaymish6178

2 жыл бұрын

I think the new bipartisan rezoning plan pushed on the councils by the central government will go a long way to reducing housing costs, but councils and especially Auckland council are currently running a rearguard action to try and preserve the status quo by labeling huge swaths of the city heritage areas if they have a preponderance of precisely the old crap houses that need to be demolished to make way for warm dry modern housing.

It is bad enough for some people to think about moving to another region/country, mainly for cheaper rent and prices. Southeast Asia almost entirely has many places where it is possible to rent a place for $150 per month. Something, that seems to be impossible in any part of Europe.

I live in London, I work full time, my partner works full time, we have some savings and already own a small flat. However, it is still almost near impossible to move to a larger home in the area. Stop people buying multiple homes, change ground rate, leases and stamp duty. Depressing.

In New Zealand (where I'm from) we also build our to biggest cities in not ideal locations; Auckland located on an isthmus, and Wellington surrounded on three sides by mountain ranges, there simply is no more land without building way outside the cities limits or redeveloping the existing on a large scale.

Just about to buy a house at a record high and I hope it bursts soon. this is just unsustainable.

My parents pushed me and pushed me to get into home ownership in the last two years, even though it’d chain me to a massive amount of debt I could barely service and the reward would be a ramshackle hovel barely worth living in. They felt that that home prices would continue to sail off into the sunset and it was my last chance to embark on it. I made one offer that was tolerable and was consequently outbid by $65,000. Nothing else was worth bidding on IMO so I waited it out. I’m praying the government doesn’t step in to prop up house prices because I really need a drop of about 40% to realize home ownership.

I don't see the UK housing market collapsing from interest rates going up to 3-5%. Housing will only ever collapse if the entire economy collapses or there's a sudden increase in supply (because of, say, a government programme to build huge amounts of houses every year, sold at cost price - HINT HINT)

Was lucky enough to buy a house back at the start of 2019 in Wellington, NZ. Went from 560k NZD to a peak of 1.1M NZD. Though we're already seeing massive price drops now, most houses are selling at least 100k below asking price currently and all in a very short amount of time. Never seen the housing market to volatile before, seems the only way to make money currently is to invest militaries :/

@p3u3g3poultree7

2 жыл бұрын

Investing in militaries was before the war in Ukraine. Now the investment is in gold I suspect. It should over the next year increase. Rising interest rates is good if you have money in the bank.

@fouad-ok

2 жыл бұрын

Invest in water bro it’s only been increasing steadily since 2019

@CombuskenKid

2 жыл бұрын

Haha I meant it more as a pessimistic commentary rather than actual investing advice. Right now i'm not investing in anything to be fair, would rather pay mortgages at the moment.

@p3u3g3poultree7

2 жыл бұрын

@@CombuskenKid when housing crashes let it bottom out and buy a house in cash rather than taking on a mortgage. Mortgages are a debt trap. The cheapest I have seen a house sell for is 2,500 euros. The best package deal I have seen is 13 houses sell for 70,000 euros.

@fish5671

2 жыл бұрын

@@p3u3g3poultree7 what you want to invest in militaries when there is a war why would you not

0:22 I’ve never been so attacked in my life 😂😭😭😭

Yes I'm out of place to live in the city, it sucks

I live in South East Asia. Here, average house price in suburban area is about 120x of minimum monthly wage, or about 10x annual minimum wage. Urban area housing price is about 50% to 100% more. NB : the house is about 6mtr x 6mtr, on a 6mtr x 12mtr land. Dunno if that's relatively cheap or expensive.

I hope its fucking insane in my country if you want to build / buy house, rents are almost as high as one person makes in month its insane if you want to live alone.

There certainly are signs that things are at their peak. You mentioned Toronto; there are a few separate housing bubbles across Canada. In the recent past, there has been a stress test for buyers to see if they can manage higher interest rates before they can get federal mortgage insurance but interest rates could go higher than the test. Most provinces and many cities are imposing empty homes taxes to calm markets and a lot of people are moving to smaller markets like New Brunswick or North Vancouver Island (they're on maps) so those prices are climbing too.

I'm sorry but.....ONLY 14% drop? When just this year they've raised 15%? That doesn't sound bad at all.

@timberwolfe1645

2 жыл бұрын

Great....So the Government is LITERALLY going to be MY ENEMY in buying an affordable house? I have no debt, My score is above 750, and I have a good paying job....but not married so just 1 income...so I can't afford a house...heck! Renting where I am is more than a mortgage!!!

Yeah, the house next door grew in price by 150k sitting there for 3 years. That's unsustainable.

Simple’s - hyper tax multiple home owners to a crippling level. Those people then sell up fast before going under then there’s plenty of stock. Plenty. The amount of people who own more than 10 homes is eye watering.

Not in Singapore 🇸🇬 yet. Public housing selling at Sing $1.4 millions. 😱

lumber cost are up way more than 14%, if we look at prices prior to covid when a 8' 2x4 was about $4 and now they are $12. The cost of building is through the roof.

Its called Landlords goblling up everything and charging a stupid amount for rent so they can fly around on a privet jet ....

Been trying to buy a house in Canada for a couple years. When bidding starts speculators swoop in, bid $200k over asking, then leave the house vacant.

I live in the Toronto area, but in the suburbs. I knew the housing situation was bad, but I had no clue it was world leading bad lol

There is a difference between a bubble and a revaluation of the market, which occurred since 2020.

I live in the US in a fast-growing area that is a collection of small cities that all border each other, so it is hard to tell when you leave one city and enter another. My particular city grew from 35,000 to 55,000 from 2010 to 2020 and is projected to hit 75,000 by 2030. The single-family housing market is not keeping up. A lot of the housing demand will be handled by building apartments, but both single family housing and apartment construction has slowed down because of lumber prices, etc. and a few of the towns making up the metroplex have put a temporary moratorium on more homes being built till the water and sewer infrastructure is upgraded. In a situation like this, I am getting calls, emails and texts from realtors wanting to sell my house because they have a buyer desperate to buy with very little inventory available. But that is not true for my entire state as a whole. We have 75 counties and only 16 of them increased in population from 2010 to 2020 - the rest stayed about the same or decreased in population, although the state as a whole increased in population. IDK for sure, but I would imagine that in some of mostly rural counties where populations have declined, the housing prices may have already dropped. Looking at statistics on a state level averages this out and ignores these county differences, and I am sure that looking at statistics on a national level is equally inaccurate. I do feel badly for the first-time home buyers who are looking to find a less expensive "starter home". These are essentially not being built because the builders are having a hard time keeping up with demand and are focusing on the middle to upper-level houses because they generate a bigger profit. The first-time home buyers are forced to rent, and this demand is pushing up rental prices as well.

What we also need to factor in is if the housing market crashes, then will this affect our savings. As if it's like 2008 then the government will just buyout with our money again without our say

Living in Toronto and trying to find a house , I can totally related to this video... It's impossible to buy a house here.

They have been talking about this year after year, "burst" "collapse", yet the price for house keep increasing, so does the rent, I do not even know how I could able to keep up anymore.

14% drop after a 300% increase isn't anything to bother about

In Helsinki rents are going down. House prices have stagnated. But living is still expensive and builders and landlords are still making huge profits.

Unless we ban Landlord's we will never burst this bubble.

Reminds me of folks paying thousands over MSRP for new cars. If you need ("need" being the key word) to make payments YOU CAN'T AFFORD IT! Dummies. 🙄 Whatever happened to "live within your means"?

House prices in the UK will never fall substantially. Labour and the conservatives are both very much in favour of lots of immigration and both make it really hard to build houses, thus there is always extreme demand. Everyone who is not rich in the middle East, Africa and the Indian subcontinent are desperate to come to the UK and will continue to risk their lives to do so. If there is ever a fall in house prices, they will be snapped up very quickly by investors and then rise again. If there is one thing you can take to the bank in the UK, it's the fact that there will always be enough immigration to create a demand.

And old people think why we cant just buy a house

The fact he doesn't mention the USA's absurd increase in housing prices and the median multiple in some of our biggest cities at first seems like we're not as bad as Canada and New Zealand. Until you look at it and realize that the USA has such a higher increase on both that it makes the other two countries look like nothing.

@daniel26964

2 жыл бұрын

Not true, you look at american housing prices and you can see why they're cheaper than the worlds, they're badly built - lightly built.

As someone whos worked with planning data, single family zoning is the bane of urban development leading to sprawl and spatial mismatch. This results in long commutes and high prices...

The housing affordability crisis and the persistence of government's not to let prices fall has the same cause: people treating their housing as an investment that they want to maximize rather than a commodity they want to consume.

Good on you for focusing on the 'median-multiple'!

@danielwebb8402

2 жыл бұрын

And no allowance for interest rates

The stereotype in Canada, is that Vancouver is the most expensive city. Well… speaking from experience, Toronto is significant more expensive.

Shelter, is a necessity of life and something we should have reliable and affordable access to. We're all complaining that the cost of petrol, gas and electricity are going up 9% but the roof over your head is worth 50% more and it's not seen in the same negative light.

0:20 The accuracy of this 😥

Price rises will certainly slow down, and in some cases prices will stay flat for a while, or even decrease a little as the absolute limits of affordability are being reached. Point is there's a lot of room inbetween skyrocketing prices and a crash, people seem to forget that because a crash sounds more dramatic/exciting, or because they want those views/clicks/retweets. The physical housing shortage will not decrease anytime soon in most places, especially places where there are jobs, so that's one fundamental that underpins high prices, so no, short of a Thanos snap, housing won't be 50% cheaper a couple of years from now. I suggest people buy the house that suits them to live in when they need it, not as an investment, but as a place to live. Trying to time the market is a fool's game that, by definition, most people will lose.

@paxundpeace9970

2 жыл бұрын

Yeah you are right the rise in prices will slow down. Just because of higher interest rates. Affordability isn't streched yet for many parts of the country housing costs make up less then 30% or 40% of the disposable income.

@14loosecannon

2 жыл бұрын

This comment is the most sensible thing I've read on housing in a long time!

@darmorel549

2 жыл бұрын

If the economy was logical, this would be right. Unfortunately, one thing I leaned from watching the video game big giants, is that the people in charge want all the money now, and twice that tomorrow. So in actuality, a flat period will cause a collapse significly faster then you would think it should.

@ASLUHLUHCE

2 жыл бұрын

Yeah, better to accept this reality than to hope for an imaginary collapse that won't come

I don't think they will fall too much in UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand because the fundamental problem of too few homes for population so there being a recession doesn't decease price too much. Only thing which will change it is interest rate hike but that just makes mortgages more expensive so the cost of buying a home doesn't change just the sticker price.

As a Canadian homeowner, I'm hoping our prices crash. They'll need to go down by 50% to bring them down to 2019 levels. Prices have more than doubled in the past 10 years, wildly outstripped wages, GDP growth, inflation, etc. A crash is necessary to get our economy functioning properly and for citizens to be able to afford rent let alone owning a home. Rents for young people are averaging 50% of income. Even from a purely selfish perspective, I'd like to sell my current home to buy a more expensive one but the overall price growth means a larger gap between the two. If prices fell in half I would be more able to afford a nicer place.

Just before the 2000's I saw house prices in my area go from 80k to 140k by the time I was ready to seriously look at buying and went to hell with that I'll wait for the prices to go back down as that's insane even when I was earning a decent salary at the time....20 years later I'm still waiting and that house is now worth over half a million...but even though I've done well increasing my earnings house prices out paced increase on earnings year on year on year. Even now earning well setting money aside (Not into savings because zero interest but investing and yay here comes recession...ffs..) I still can only dream of owning half a house if I'm lucky, it's obscene and needs to crash back down to reality.

It already atarted in Toronto, the market fell ~20% the past few months

Overpriced? I can see the argument about detaching from earnings, but all that said the govt did essentially print money during lockdown (well actually since the last banking crisis) so equally it's hardly surprising that a lot of it ended up in inflating assets like housing. Anyway I remember when I first bought my house (which I thought was at the time the market was inflated) I was told by my older friends that 1. there's never a good time to buy and 2. they probably couldn't afford what they have now at current prices - now over a decade on I repeat the same experience

Here in Chile the Median Yearly Income is $6.400 USD, while the Median House Price where i live is like $180.000 USD, giving a Median Multiple of x28 Giving that the disposable income here in Chile is very very low, almost no one can afford a Home

I feel very sorry for those struggling to get on the market, the chances are u are paying more in rent than a mortgage would be anyway. Trouble is if it bursts and a lot of people end up in negative equity there will be even fewer houses come on the market.

In the US one item to note is homebuyers who purchased at inflated prices over the last 10 years have historically low fixed interest rates and can afford their payment. The collapse will be in the greedy corporate home buyers who are forced to have a return on investment. They will go crying to the government for a bailout. The government should allow them to collapse and sell at a steep discount making existing homes more affordable. Unlike previous housing crashes this time it will be due to high rental expenses.

It should be noted that a 20% drop brings us (nz) back to prices of a year ago. So even then houses are still unaffordable.