Chechnya is not and never was (unless we go back centuries) a foreign country - it was and is indisputably part of the Russian Federation. Yeltsin didn't "invade" his own country. It rebelled and the rebellion was crushed - with a notable delay. I do not see any basis for Mary Sarotte's thesis that Chechnya sets any precedent for Russian policy toward former Soviet republics or has anything to do with NATO's article 5.

If there was no dissent from Ukrainians in regard to standing up to Russian aggression then why would they have to institute a mandatory draft for all men ages 18-60, forbidding them from fleeing as refugees?

"Who controls the past controls the future; who controls the present controls the past." George Orwell in his classic 'Nineteen Eighty-Four'.

I'll be interested to hear their opinions in a month, when many of their current assumptions about Putin and Russia prove hopelessly incorrect.

It sadens me that also here everyone is talking about how Russia isn't reaching its goal without ever telling what that supposed goal is. I'm starting to have my doubts that anyone actually knows what it is, i.e. what they are talking about.

Quote from George Kennan, the “father of US Cold War Policy” and U.S. Ambassador to Moscow in 1952: *”I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe. Don’t people understand? Our differences in the cold war were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime…And Russia’s democracy is as far advanced, if not farther, as any of these countries we’ve just signed up to defend from Russia.”*

The fact that this doesn't have more views is indictment of our education system and our obsession with entertainment. 🍅

"A significant percentage of CFOs are talking about re-shoring supply chains" Ahhhhhhhhhh. Best news I've heard in decades.

I love how they said that the Ukrainian's chose to give up the nukes but didn't say why they did. I wish they would give evidence for what they say but I am not surprised. I would be interested in hearing James Rickards insight on the sanctions.

For an in depth analysis they should invite Kamala. “That being said” they did their best.

Talking about the importance of history and completely ignored it. Good Job.

Lofty rhetoric and emotional appeals to principles, rules and laws might work OK in a classroom or in court, but the definitely do not prevail in war. If this is the quality of the thinking of the political intelligensia of this country, then we are in very grave danger.

Are show notes available: links to the participants social media and some works cited in the discussion?

Dear Sirs, I would like to note that in order to find a solution to a problem it is imperative to define the problem correctly. Otherwise, given that you know how to solve a problem, you will find the correct solution but to the wrong problem !!! Every problem has a solution otherwise it is an axium or a theorem. Solution on which everybody agrees is an extremely romantic thought. Correct definitions simplify mental processes, including mental structure, a lot.

Thanks for naming the participants making it easier for people like me who know only one or two of the luminaries like Tyler Goodspeed and you Niall. It may not be too much to ask for someone to put the names of the participants (at least those of the guests) in writing. Your other forum with the Goodfellows is a good example where the members are introduced every time!

I felt uncomfortable 🥴 for the experts who joined this zoom meeting and never got to speak.

Why would William Burns of the CIA fundamentally differ how the Russian perspective on NATO expansion into Ukraine be so different to you folks here ? Please invite voices that have wider perspective like Professor Mieshermar .

John Mearsheimer's assessment of US strategy through NATO is absolutely correct, and no amount of hogwash and clearly biased diatribe will change that.

Excellent discussion. I, like several folks (20:00), are shocked by the ignorant idea by the emotional that we should establish a "No Fly Zone" in Ukraine. This conflict isn't a movie or a game, where the Good Guys always win. Even if we were interested, it is way too late once war has started. You don't interject yourself into an active war with a nuclear super power, unless you want to be at war with them...and we certainly do not. However, providing lethal aid (Poland's jet fighters?) is more than acceptable. The Russians and Chinese certainly provided such aid against the U.S. in the Korean and Vietnam Wars, and we didn't cite is a cause for direct war against them.

Putin: "How am I going to get my hands on dollars or euros to pay for foreign imports?' Xi Jinping: "I got ya, buddy. Now, about that oil and natural gas Germany isn't buying... you can get me a good deal on that because we're such good friends, right?"

Thank you for your insights, and for making this available.

I really, really, really do not get the doom and gloom about the inevitability of a Russian victory. You would be amazed by the catastrophic slip of the Russian army's performance.

Do you think the WEF had anything to do with strategies?

I think you are all missing the point with regard to the slow, poor progress of the invasion., This is due to the wish to minimise casualties. Russia surrounds the enemy, and waits - negotiating humanitarian corridors for civilians and soldiers that wish to escape to an agreed safe area. Russia minimises destruction, unlike our policy of total destruction from the air, followed by mopping up of any remaining combatants.When they take over, they keep the civilian government intact, and allow 'business as usual' to minimise chaos and trauma. Change of subject - what about the Nazis? Ukraine has a lot. It jails any political opposition, murders "traitors", and uses women and children as human shields. Not particularly civilised at all.

Hello dear Profs. I have a question? How wrong is Putin towards his actions on Ukrain and how right is Ukraine to Join NATO?

This conversation is at the level of a child who watches CNN ten hours a day. Why do you give yourself the right to think that you are the smartest and the only right one.

Thank you for this enlightening discussion with these laudable guests. I always discover something new when listening to Hoover research fellows and guests.

This was an excellent and expertly moderated panel discussion. Thank you so much for organizing this and making it available.

Russia has never known democracy - hence it can't be a democracy "again".

Another fantastic presentation by the Hoover Institute.

Enjoyed the perspectives. Thank you.

Perfect overview and coolheaded informes debate we need :)

How can a man who lived his entire life as a criminal not lose his marbles in old age?

Excellent discussion. Thanks to Niall and all participants.

Thks for this great discussion, great views!

I am very impatient with dialog about protocol so I skipped to 4:36 minutes the beginning of the conversation.

thanks everyone for this informative show.

this is such a bad and biased discussion. the moderator actually says that Putin might have lost his mind. they are just repeating "Russia Bad" talking line.

Far and away the best informed discussion of these issues, Thanks to the Hoover Institution.

Very well done it really moved along & got a lot of expert information & opinion across to interested followers.

Is there anyone with an opposing viewpoint? Provide support to an ongoing insurgency, isn’t that what we were fighting in reverse during the Iraq invasion?

Where is Ron Paul when we need him?? “No to war in Afghanistan! No to war in Iraq! No to intervening in other’s conflicts….” These are just the mostly young neocons who are justifying the acts of the establishment. Such Bullpucky…! Russia will stop when security has been established, ‘nuff said.

About 2 years ago, Dmitri Kiselyev’s son went to Pyongyang and made a documentary that was available on KZread. Worth watching. Also, where is Kirill? He has been silent. With all due respect to Mr. Goodspeed, in a CRM-generated economy, remember GIGO.

Excellent discussion! Appreciated.

Thanks

Very insightful. Thanks

The Hoover Institute has my number. They know I judge expertise by the number of books on shelves in the background. 📚 📚 📚 🧐

Great conversation!

just watching the introduction, Mary is so sweet!

George Kennan, architect of the containment strategy in the Cold War and Jack Matlock, former ambassador to Russia, viewed NATO expansion as John Mearshimer does. He recently said in a Zoom conference that "the U.S. is fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian."

Excellent. I learned so much.

And what were the occluded but obviously true historical parallels and what were the only seeming parallels that were demonstrably false?

What would be the most likely impact if U.S. and / or NATO forces intervene?

Wish the US State Department had just half the wisdom of some of these folks

we need two hours

Last August Zelensky hosted the first "Freedom for Crimea" summit which was attended by a host of EU bigwigs. Said Bigwigs were very eager to support Zelensky's goal of regaining Crimea for the motherland. So that means that getting in bed with the Ukraine means we're in bed with reversing the 2014 debacle. Nobody in the US knew about this summit, but you can bet the Russians were listening in. We're not looking at September 1938 now - we're looking at July 1914. Let's hope our leaders show more wisdom than Europe's did before the Guns of August began to fire.

Thank you for doing this. While I don't agree with everything said I did enjoy the discussion.

Very informative, thank you. One thing I would say regarding our cancelation of some ballistic missile testing, after Putin's nuclear sabre rattling, is the Russian's lack of a comprehensive situational awareness systems, as compared to those of the west. These could easily be misinterpreted as a first strike under the guise of a test. I think it is meant to be seen as a non-provocational move. The last thing we need is nuclear escalation.

Great discussion.

Fascinating how little Americans understand the Slavic people. Eastern, Southern and Western Slavs are somehow an enigma. Plato warned about the voting public being ignorant. Even your diplomats are clueless and this is widely spoken about by even your best friends. All good things come to an end but seldom as spectacularly as ours. You all do realise that we have stumbled our way into the creation of the dragon-bear. God be with us all

Keep the faith, Niall. If you lose your belief in pessimism, then what’s left?

Darth Ferguson for the first few minutes😂

Mary Sarotte dressed down after she dressed up. This is a metaphor which parallels the ideas she has also brought to the table, which now, obviously, seem to be suspect equally to her frumpy remotely managed attire. I swear, if I live to be three hundred (years old), micromanagers really ruffle my feathers.

Magnificent.

I wonder what the chances are, if an independent Ukraine arises from this, that they will become heavily militaristic? That's how Prussia reacted to the Thirty Years' War, after all.

Ahh, the ol' blurr the line routine.

@ArielBerdugo

2 жыл бұрын

Offers no conjecture above conjecture that it's Putin at play. No mention of his very detailed grievance speech. Disappointing.

@ArielBerdugo

2 жыл бұрын

Why would one presume the intent is to hold. Wreck is more sensible from the Russian perspective.

Would love to have Dr Marshall Poe there

It was a pleasure to listen

Lofty rhetoric and emotional appeals to principles, rules, and laws might work OK in a classroom or in court, but they definitely do not prevail in war. If this is the quality of the thinking of the political intelligencia of this country, then we are in very grave trouble.

I read that Putin’s first wife is in a nuclear hardened bunker in Siberia. If true that’s troubling.

Wonderful, incisive dialogue. Thank you all for your rich insights.

way too many experts to get much out of this.

a very good discussion

I dont know if you can say Russia has the capability to govern Ukraine. They have shown weakness militarily (managerially). How would one expect to simply “just govern” / occupy a population of 30-40mm without a massive plan to coordinate post conflict. Plus the sanctions will apply to Ukraine once it falls. And how is Russia going to finance / carry the Ukrainian balance sheet when they are occupying and the skilled workers have either been killed or fled. It seems to me that they are pushing to take control over the black sea and will throw away kyiv at a moments notice. Perhaps they were baiting the fighting so that the north attracted attention when the real play was in the south. I dont see Russia financing the rebuilding of Ukraine. They will take resources out and that is it.

Outstanding moderator.

There are not European allies, they are servants. Just look what happend with Nord Stream II. Convenient for Russia & Germany but not for US. And Germany bowed its head.

Zelensky's Ukraine, Where The Pandora Papers Hit Hardest The global probe of offshore accounts around the world strike at the heart of Kiev's current government and power structure of a ruling class that rose to power on the promise of fighting corruption, including the television-star-turned-President Volodymyr Zelensky.

19:40 Insane.

Could have listened to this conversation for another 2 or 3 hours. Fascinating stuff and and some great insights.

"Crossing the Red Line" is a consequence of "Group Think". We ignored the sudden danger in our aggressive pursuit to field our ideals, without the recognition of the fact that there is evil out there... So we do rouse the beast and by doing so created the monster that we are unprepared to put down!

Mary Sarotte is absolutely amazing! I went and bought her book Not One Inch, a 568 page book with 5/5 star ratings and positive reviews like I have rarely seen. A stupendous scholar. All of the men were great but she has amazing insight. Thanks.

The amount of not paying attention to history astounds me. Look who we armed in Afghanistan and how did that turn out?? We’re arming far right extremist in Ukraine how is that gonna turn out??

Clearly a lot of knowledge drawn together but not one hint of looking past exceptionalism. Moreover listening to Russia formal statements. While they have operated in dark arts with covert methods often in the past, When they make formal statements they do not tend to hide intentions or misspeak. Putin stated he had no urge (after numerous references to the mistake of USSR in Afghanistan.) to even topple Ukraine. They would have shock and awed not loosing one Russian life. We committed to weeks of sorties and missiles before entering Iraq both times. We leveled Raqqa to dust before letting SDF enter and dance celebrating their former guru. They have no urge nor delusion the western Ukraine would or could become ruled by Russia. The broadcasted strategy to recreate the Mujahideen is sick and contributing to crimes agaisnt humanity. Celebrating distribution of advanced military weapons to youth is a gross urges to satisfy blood thirst for Putin or some cold war regressive duck and cover abuse resurfacing. The idea of sending in tons and more tons promising even more tons of javelins and such will result in the shock and awe taking more life and destroying more infrastructure. We are still chasing down javelins lost in Libya. These numbered far less then what has already been sent. This is not a plea to support any military action Russia or NATO or anywhere. I have a deep love for Ukrainian music, art and there people. Taking a honest look at the entire political situation in Ukraine would bring a hint of this learned groups efforts to discuss the situation. Each of the last and the current administrations have put the former administration in jail. Now even the opposition was arrested. All opposition or Russian speaking media was shut down this last year. The Kive Regime has refused to implement one aspect of the Minks accord. Instead as our ambassador and the UK's stood up at the security counsel spoke with sarcasm and demeaning speech The Azov unleashed an assault on the Donbass of insity that demanded instant reaction or massacre. Russia has left electric, internet, water treatment and other infrastructure in place, A non strategic path to take over a country but the exact method used in Syria by Putin. That took a long time and I think should have not resulted in only IDLIB taking the Mujahideen. Of course the US was furious Russia opened a passage at all. I see this as very similar tactic. Certainly not they did not bring enough gas or they are slowed down. Again if complete control was the object they would have shock and awed. Being able to use short range projectiles to hit what they have a deep understanding in infrastructure, terrain and even current nato funded facilities. Which is what they took out day 1. By stating the 3 things that were done for the Cuban crisis but missing that is what Russia did instead continuing to speculate about mental capacity is state propaganda and not valid assessment. Putin may be crazy and he may rule by brute force but as you speak about rising up and removing him you accept this as possible meaning he is not making decisions in a vacuum. They have publicly declared their efforts to remove any issued from sanctions inclusion central bank and swift since 2014. They have already paid for there 1/3 portion of Nord 2 and have singed contracts to not loose any sales. Yes they are taking an economic hit to be certain but they have a surplus and as big as our coalition is over 1/2 the world will not sanction Russia, I believe Russia did expect this level of reaction and have made years of diplomacy to other sanctioned countries to remove the dollar from being the world's fiat. Excepting a years worth of bailing itself out and losses to walk away and try to form a parallel economy. Our arrogance and failure to except Russia at their word along with uncontrolled quantitative easing, endless appropriations and like every fallen empire ignoring homeland needs to keep expenditures for colonial adventurism, mantining over 800 bases will cause us enormous harm. This with the absurd repeating Russia is just a gas station not admitting what is about to happen to the world economy in hopes of another social media color revolution is criminal. Fertilizer, Nickel, Aluminum, Wheat, oil and gas. IF we do not have fertilizer for the worlds farmers and the gas / oil pipes are shut down plus a major amount of wheat is not exported we will have not a recession but the complete collapse of western economics. Resulting in loss of life well beyond any in modern times. loss of houses jobs and education stating our society for generations. By taunting Russia, reassuring Ukraine while pouring arms there and simply walking away we have also destroyed our good will that still existed. From a strategic point is is illogical and appears as planed revenge over diplomacy. We may not mention our original roles in 91, or our interference in 2004 and 2014 but they do remember. That is not to say we caused any of those events or our actions were not correct in helping fund and facilitate. But to do all of that just to set a honey trap. Is demoralizing. I believe in the people of the US and Ukraine and Russia . I hope our learned people in the position to make suggestions account for what is best for all people and stop the collective punishment. Not just in Russia but all countries we currently use sanctions not against the ruling class but as a tool to destroy the country . We have some of the best minds and kindest people. we should turn to innovation over zero sum competition. One love

The nuclear plant move is a crime against humanity; making them plants is too, fit.

That was insightful discussion, thank you.

March 13, 1881

Talking about Mearsheimer without inviting his response leads to a flat discussion. Why should I think that you interacted fairly with his views? You should work on this. Usually I like Hoover discussions, just not here.

In our political spectrum Putin is a moderate conservative, who has been considered for long as relatively pro-Western politician. With this anti-Russian hystirea you are going to have as a Putin's successor someone far more hawkish.

Like Stephen Kotkin said: whats the point of having a huge military and not willing to use it?

This is a very good discussion. That said, the failure to take Vladimir Putin and Russia seriously has brought us to the point where thousands have been killed. It matters not whether Putin is rational or whether the Ukrainians are heroic. What matters is that Putin and Russia considers NATO membership for Ukraine as an existential threat AND Russia has more nuclear weapons than any other nation. Even a few nuclear explosions are a very bad thing. At some point, absent regime change, Russia’s security concerns must be addressed. I am encouraged that the parallel of 1962 Cuba has been mentioned. To end the killing and destruction a deal with Putin and Russia must me made.

What an excellent and informative discussion.

Yugoslavia

Because of that expansion Bosnia happened it wasn't the Russians that caused those atrocities the people of Bosnia did. Just like Cambodia America carpet bombed the country for the khmer Rouge to cause mass genocide in their country all information available on Wikipedia

Putin and Xi have both argued that the era of democracy is over and the world can go back to the normal - apparently the days of Emperors. Success or failure in Ukraine may be the test of that hypothesis. Can a group of democratic nations take the risks inherent in opposing a dictator, or stand by and watch them take ever more away.

Modern Warfare: Bloodlands

IF the failure of anticipating fierce resistance by Ukraine is a sign of Unhinge of Putin, then what is the failure of the expectation of Iraq Liberator's welcoming said about US leaderships? It is a childish reaction to treat something you do not understand as Crazy.

Hate the format. Prefer scholars expounding their views based upon their acknowledged expertise.

Very interesting. We try so hard to find out 'why.' Man has been at war since Cain killed Abel. It will always be that way. We don't love God, and we don't even think our neighbour is a human worthy of thought, never mind love. Hope tells us that there is a life after this one - thanks be to God.

Too far with NATO WTF doesn't each nation have the right to decide what kind of foreign policy they want.

Retain my ⏲️