The Counterfactual Show: Reimagining History, with Stephen Kotkin | GoodFellows

Historians differ over the need to explore “counterfactuals”-the study of scenarios that never happened-and what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution’s Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop music’s British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niall’s book sales).
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
The opinions expressed on this channel are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
© 2024 by the Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University.

Пікірлер: 202

  • @Zero_Zero_Zero_Zero
    @Zero_Zero_Zero_Zero15 күн бұрын

    We love it when you guys have historian Joe Pesci on.

  • @jlziux
    @jlziux15 күн бұрын

    Kotkin on Goodfellas?? It’s Christmas, boys and girls

  • @Filisteu1900
    @Filisteu190015 күн бұрын

    Dr. Kotkin should be there more frequently 🎉 Highly entertaining 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

  • @GentlemanJack705
    @GentlemanJack70515 күн бұрын

    Kotkin! The man! The myth! The LEGEND!

  • @syjiang
    @syjiang15 күн бұрын

    Love to see Kotkin back!

  • @keeganretzlaff6582
    @keeganretzlaff658215 күн бұрын

    Always happy to listen to Steven Kotkin. Such an interesting person to listen to.

  • @rosmacmahon7812
    @rosmacmahon781215 күн бұрын

    Kotkin needs his own KZread for all GeoPolitics he’d make a fucking mint.

  • @Michael-tz7tj
    @Michael-tz7tj15 күн бұрын

    Stephen Kotkin. What a treat.

  • @philipford6183
    @philipford618315 күн бұрын

    A nice surprise to see Stephen Kotkin parachuted in to cover for the General. Also, a great many history fans enjoy counterfactuals. Thanks for this conversation!

  • @ActFast
    @ActFast15 күн бұрын

    YES!!! KOTKIN! KOTKIN! KOTKIN!

  • @hatalatesting6476
    @hatalatesting647614 күн бұрын

    Kotkin has absolutely upped his sartorial game. Man's got some drip fr

  • @dr.davidboisselle7399
    @dr.davidboisselle739914 күн бұрын

    I feel so much smarter every time I watch the GoodFellows -- thank you!

  • @stooge389
    @stooge38915 күн бұрын

    HOLY SHIT GOODFELLOWS IN PERSON WITHOUT AN AUDIENCE!!!!! CHRISTMAS IS NOW MAY 16TH🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

  • @raymondswenson1268
    @raymondswenson126815 күн бұрын

    The armed forces conduct war games all the time, trying to explore possible conflicts and the way they can be resolved in our favor. Every proposal for new legislation is an argument that we can divert the course of social history into a better outcome. Part of military studies is reconsidering how past wars and battles could have been better resolved. During my five years at Strategic Air Command, I participated in exercises involving response to nuclear weapon accidents, and playing out recovery from nuclear attacks on the US. Answering these "What If" questions for possible future scenarios is essential to planning for government agencies.

  • @stooge389
    @stooge38915 күн бұрын

    WHEN IS STEPHEN KOTKIN GONNA BE ON GOODFELLOWS AGAIN WHEN GOODFELLOWS WHEN

  • @stooge389

    @stooge389

    15 күн бұрын

    (I'm only 1 minute and 27 seconds in)

  • @katejoyce2725
    @katejoyce272514 күн бұрын

    I get so excited every time I find a new video with Steven Kotkin!!!

  • @RN-lo6xc
    @RN-lo6xc15 күн бұрын

    Been waiting for this - amazing trio and an unmatched guest

  • @ruairifahy1872
    @ruairifahy187215 күн бұрын

    A great show. Still ploughing my way through Kotkins Stalin x 3.

  • @NNovoselski
    @NNovoselski15 күн бұрын

    Yes Kotkin ❤❤❤❤

  • @Sollicitus_civis
    @Sollicitus_civis14 күн бұрын

    Did I hear that right...4 classes on T. Swift and none on Vietnam? Nothing wrong with teaching elements of Swift from music or business but I am shocked that not one history or political science course on Vietnam. Tell it like a true Jersey boy, Kotkin "I deal in big historical questions." Love it!!

  • @obfuscati
    @obfuscati13 күн бұрын

    Goodfellows is behind the times. Let these guys expand on their ideas. What's with the hour time limit? It's not cable TV

  • @danp8950
    @danp895015 күн бұрын

    Brilliant discussion.

  • @benmirault5933
    @benmirault59339 күн бұрын

    God I could watch a 4 hour run of this show. 1.5 hours is never enough!!!!

  • @henrymroth9455
    @henrymroth945514 күн бұрын

    I love these guys! Including McMaster. Keep up the great work.

  • @richardhausig9493
    @richardhausig949311 күн бұрын

    Prof Kotkin is the best. If I could have any 3 historical dinner guests, Kotkin would be one, imagine him questioning the other two.

  • @bogeyb200
    @bogeyb20014 күн бұрын

    I could listen to this all day, every day. Start a separate show like this. I'll pay for it

  • @robsrockinout
    @robsrockinout12 күн бұрын

    The amount of contention and relief in this conversation is both palpable and remarkable. Dr. Kotkin is an absolute mediator when it comes to historical disagreements. God bless you all and thank you for sharing this with the general public. Thank you for bringing order to this disarray.

  • @alexandrebittencourttande3264
    @alexandrebittencourttande326411 күн бұрын

    I watch most of your talks, but I have to say this one was the best! Professor Kotkin is always a delight to hear from. Thanks!

  • @JT-qs4tv
    @JT-qs4tv2 күн бұрын

    What a real pleasure these conversations are. Thank you.

  • @MMircea
    @MMircea15 күн бұрын

    Joe Pesci back in the wolf's layer. A pleasure, as always

  • @jess7150
    @jess715014 күн бұрын

    Excellent conversation!

  • @lawrencefrost9063
    @lawrencefrost906315 күн бұрын

    Why can't these be longer

  • @d0lvl0
    @d0lvl010 күн бұрын

    Thank God Kotkin is keeping the unfortunate partisanship of this show in check.

  • @noogie13
    @noogie1313 күн бұрын

    Kotkin simply outclasses the other two. Easily.

  • @RightSideNews
    @RightSideNews15 күн бұрын

    Kotkin is great

  • @pedrinhograna443
    @pedrinhograna44315 күн бұрын

    Greetings from Brazil! 🇧🇷

  • @biggeordiecliffordd8609
    @biggeordiecliffordd860913 күн бұрын

    Seems to be a frisson between Neil & Stephen Kotkin. Adds to the pleasure of the discussion.

  • @Thanos916
    @Thanos91615 күн бұрын

    Looking forward to this one.

  • @user-vl8io4je5q
    @user-vl8io4je5q9 күн бұрын

    Stephen Kotkin is a brilliant historian - the counterfactual when analyzed by reference to past events is an indicator of future - it's the concept of conflagrations.

  • @lizgichora6472
    @lizgichora647214 күн бұрын

    Enriching Historical Facts of WWII events to the present, " Beetles vs Stones? " Thank you very much Niall Ferguson, Stephen Kotkin, John Cochrane and H.R McMaster.

  • @karthiknarayan1888
    @karthiknarayan188815 күн бұрын

    Just want to say, with regards to the discussion about the contributions of the railroad to American Economic Growth, Robert Fogel in 1970 wrote a fascinating book on exactly this question. The correct counterfactual to railroad construction, he argues, is canal extensions and with that in mind, the marginal contribution of railroads to american economic growth was quite small

  • @derekohachey
    @derekohachey12 күн бұрын

    I've watched Stephen Kotkin over the last decade and always appreciate his thoughts.. also want to observe one important trend about Dr. Kotkin, he is better dressed as the years progress! I challenge anyone who disagrees and welcome projections in how we will see him in 5 years! Great show once again guys!

  • @icecoldfroste
    @icecoldfroste12 күн бұрын

    Great show! Keep them coming! The Counterfactual questions are great and entertaining to listen to. Stephen Kotkin is always a great addition as well.

  • @rsjmail
    @rsjmail12 күн бұрын

    Ferguson and Cochrane love to hear themselves talk about nothing. Not even Stephen Kotkin could save this episode. If they were talking about something that wasn’t sooo self-indulgent, maybe Kotkin would have made it watchable. Where’s H.R.? I can’t stomach the other two without him. And I think this is the first time I’ve Ferguson in six months where he hasn’t mentioned Cold War TOOOOO! His GENIUS insight! Who else in the whole world would have come up with rhetoric idea of adding II to Cold War to describe the exact same experience between the exact same powers a Second time. It’s GENIUS!!! Neal, you trademarked that right??

  • @TalkernateHistory
    @TalkernateHistory9 күн бұрын

    If Niall and Stephen linked up to make Virtual History II, that would be a dream come true

  • @murryrozansky8753
    @murryrozansky875315 күн бұрын

    Fellow Kotkin, When is Stalin 3 going to be available? I hope to be able to read how his story ends before I do.

  • @timobanon1865
    @timobanon186514 күн бұрын

    It always seems like the Goodfellows are having fun, even when arguing with one another. That's good stuff. We viewers are blessed if we enjoy it 1/2 as much as they do. I appreciate this level of scholarship being offered to all of us, for free. Thank you, sirs.

  • @paularivero1878
    @paularivero187811 күн бұрын

    Great great great interaction among three brilliant people. Thank you so much. We need more of this amazingly complex arguments about methodology and epistemology in History❤❤

  • @passerbyp8531
    @passerbyp853115 күн бұрын

    Bravo!

  • @27natedogg1
    @27natedogg115 күн бұрын

    Wish they had John Goodman there to yell “Cochran you’re out of your element!”

  • @user-vl8io4je5q
    @user-vl8io4je5q9 күн бұрын

    Its important to always take account of the counterfactual - the first occasion it was introduced was the Court of King's Bench - en banc.

  • @paulmobley9645
    @paulmobley964510 күн бұрын

    I really liked this show so much on the topic of counter factuals. Star Trek had an episode of going back in time to stop Hitler. It raised similar questions about single "butterfly" events impact on the future of chaotic systems. Yet to take on the show with several was very nambitious. I could not enjoy it all at one sitting and would stop between transitions to the next. I also appreciate the humour and lighter side of the show to make the history lessons so enjoyable. What I did learn is the accident of Churchill in America not covered by many historians as a possible counterfactual event as was done on this very compelling show. THANKS for taking us on the trip.

  • @mattieboy7777
    @mattieboy777714 күн бұрын

    Kotkin is so witty. Great guest!!

  • @Spudgun81
    @Spudgun8110 күн бұрын

    What an excellent discussion. More of this please!

  • @Probez44
    @Probez4413 күн бұрын

    Kotkin adds spice to the fellas. Make him more permanent. Great episode!

  • @dankohlmeyer9172
    @dankohlmeyer917213 күн бұрын

    Best Goodfellows episode yet!

  • @k.u.5798
    @k.u.579812 күн бұрын

    Kotkin episode, instant watch.

  • @charlesdavis3802
    @charlesdavis380215 күн бұрын

    profound discussion. tyvm.

  • @notlimey
    @notlimey14 күн бұрын

    Yay! Collingwood - my guide to the study of history

  • @rogerparkhurst5796
    @rogerparkhurst579610 күн бұрын

    Thank you! Always interesting when SK is on.

  • @chrisgreene2623
    @chrisgreene262314 күн бұрын

    Well that was just over an hour well spent with fascinating discourse.

  • @fabioj2000
    @fabioj200014 күн бұрын

    Kotkin taking Hoover to 1M subs is guaranteed at this point.

  • @akp167
    @akp16714 күн бұрын

    Crazy how this is free

  • @majozishow
    @majozishow14 күн бұрын

    My favourite podcast. Big fan from South Africa!

  • @majozishow

    @majozishow

    14 күн бұрын

    And excellent conversation!

  • @juanmillaruelo7647
    @juanmillaruelo764712 күн бұрын

    Excellent deep dive. Wonderful!

  • @jpmor7327
    @jpmor732714 күн бұрын

    This needs to be heard

  • @crazypaulinquebec
    @crazypaulinquebec9 күн бұрын

    ''4 classes on Taylor Swift and none on the Vietnam war - they are just trying to balance the kid's education...'' - geez, Stephen Kotkin has to sign up as a writer (or presenter) on SNL!! Too funny!! What a great mind and what a great sense of humor.

  • @garbonomics
    @garbonomics14 күн бұрын

    I loved the playful nature of this episode as well as an interesting view of counterfactual history.

  • @tabithadorcas7763
    @tabithadorcas776314 күн бұрын

    Excellent! Thank you!

  • @Aryan32459
    @Aryan3245914 күн бұрын

    Revux impact is a testament to its unique approach.

  • @shawnzeppo4361
    @shawnzeppo436114 күн бұрын

    Love Neil Ferguson's reference to Axis and Allies and other strategy games @30:29 . Historians need to play these games to experience simulated counter factuals, even if they are highly oversimplified like he mentions.

  • @ainslieberrafella
    @ainslieberrafella12 күн бұрын

    I could feel my brain getting bigger as I watched this. 👍

  • @a.s.clifton544
    @a.s.clifton54415 күн бұрын

    The seating makes it look as if Mr. Ferguson is addressing a tennis match.

  • @user-we2qv1cx6x
    @user-we2qv1cx6x15 күн бұрын

    Excellent talk. Thank you

  • @i.p2088
    @i.p208811 күн бұрын

    Excellent discussion.

  • @sl1msn1per
    @sl1msn1per14 күн бұрын

    So much fun! Please do another one of these

  • @adot911
    @adot91115 күн бұрын

    My favorite people

  • @Jagentic
    @Jagentic15 күн бұрын

    excellent panel -rich and in-depth I only wish the time didn’t constrain the crux parsing banter.. pseudo assassination suppositions… sadly coincide with the newest and Slavic case study

  • @ned900
    @ned90014 күн бұрын

    Great conversation, realy enjoyed that

  • @nathanngumi8467
    @nathanngumi846713 күн бұрын

    A great episode! The team should have made this episode in two parts to get through all nine counterfactuals instead of just four. The civil rights double episode of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson (which Dr. Condoleeza Rice featured in) is a good reference in this regard.

  • @andrewyao9921
    @andrewyao99212 күн бұрын

    Great fun to watch! It a melding of freshman year, late night pseudo-intellectual debates and middle aged, actual-intellectual PhD‘s. 😉

  • @fredflintstone7924
    @fredflintstone79249 күн бұрын

    thank you, this was brilliant!

  • @jontycrossick9569
    @jontycrossick956914 күн бұрын

    Bill is awesome!

  • @joebeatty7961
    @joebeatty796114 күн бұрын

    Very good discussion.

  • @user-vl8io4je5q
    @user-vl8io4je5q13 күн бұрын

    Put simply the counterfactual is what would have happened now, if we don’t act now - their guidance is our passage to equality 😊

  • @vz6365
    @vz636513 күн бұрын

    Who is for this to be weekly with all five good fellows?

  • @Emmu-Inrio
    @Emmu-Inrio13 күн бұрын

    Naill’s pointed remark about “historians aren’t novelists” raises a relevant idea about historiography, the act of writing history. Histories are written as a narrative - with a beginning, middle, and an end - because that’s how humans best process information. There’s no other way history can be written for a consuming general audience. And as factual history is written with a clean, tightly organized narrative structure of cause and effect, it gives the ILLUSION of determinism. As a result, the exercise of the counterfactual is viewed in haste as a frivolous or inconsequential to the understanding of the past. Needless to inform our company, the word “history” is Greek in origin of inquiry. However, its Old English root derives from Latin: story.

  • @patrickevans8482
    @patrickevans848215 күн бұрын

    When is Stalin Vol 3 coming?? Hurry up, please.😂

  • @doniphandiatribes
    @doniphandiatribes14 күн бұрын

    Always brilliant

  • @Joseph-ax999
    @Joseph-ax99912 күн бұрын

    This is a question I've often asked. What would have happened if the American revolution had failed? What would have happened to signers of the declaration of independence?

  • @michaeljacobs4546
    @michaeljacobs454614 күн бұрын

    Just after I wrote the below @ 11:00 Cochrane addressed my confusion, which makes sense in that I am much closer to being an economist than a historian.

  • @brianwallace9997
    @brianwallace999712 күн бұрын

    Five Days in London: May 1940 by John Lukacs is a fantastic short read that focuses on how critical Churchill was in dealing with the defeatest sentiment in his government. (I think you can get a copy for under $10). Had Halifax been Prime Minister the outcome would been very different.

  • @RasmusDyhrFrederiksen
    @RasmusDyhrFrederiksen11 күн бұрын

    What a treat, thanks ;-)

  • @johnbentley7834
    @johnbentley78349 күн бұрын

    Regarding America's War for Independence I have a few observations that may not have been discussed: 0. The British Empire didn't simply give up, the war became prohibitively costly at a time of considerable financial strain. 1. America could have outright lost the war, say in 1880; that doesn't imply America would not have fought another war, and another, until they would have ultimately won. The War of 1812, in fact, was another test. 2. The strong ideals of independence and liberty were, and still are very much American and not necessarily shared in the same degree elsewhere. 3. Canadian colonies had not the same core values, they were predominantly populated by loyalists; before and after the Revolution. 4. Today, Canada would not need to fight a war, they could simply decide to be a Constitutional Republic. They don't (same for Australia, New Zeeland). 5. Even to this day, immigrant populations mainly self select between USA and other countries, like Canada, based on idea affiliations of what they comsider to be most important to their lives. In my opinion, the United States would have ended in the same place, even if another route would have been necessary.

  • @lost.projects387
    @lost.projects38713 күн бұрын

    Fun episode!

  • @BuddyLee23
    @BuddyLee2314 күн бұрын

    They should counterfactual with Patton’s quote that we defeated the wrong enemy…👀

  • @user-vl8io4je5q
    @user-vl8io4je5q9 күн бұрын

    Concentrate on this part - as the non aggression pact agreed in 1939 between Hitlxr and Stalin is not in discussion. The breach of non aggression pact by Hitlxr is when Stalin was invaded and had to join WW2. Because his mis-read Hitlxr assurance he would not invade Russia. And create a war on two fronts.

  • @kingcrazymani4133
    @kingcrazymani413314 күн бұрын

    John made a terrific point about correlation vs. causation. Crazyman abandoned the basic concept when the celestial cheat sheet was made available. Worth a discussion some day, maybe when John is in the Swamp. It’s looking as if I’m gonna have to be in the building in the thumbnail. 38:00. Prior to 1941, Zhukhov had been fighting the Imperial Japanese Army in Eastern Mongolia and Manchuria. Successfully. 1:00:00. Dr. Kotkin is leaving out someone he is supposed to know.

  • @cswanson4476
    @cswanson447610 күн бұрын

    11:51 Cochrane’s description of a “trend” in historiography is unrecognizable to me. I have, just this year so far, tore through several scholarly histories, written between 1997 or so and 2017: _Where the Negroes are Masters: An African Port in the Era of the Slave Trade_ by Sparks, _The Crucible of Islam_ by Bowersock, _Taming Manhattan: Environmental Battles in the Antebellum City_ by McNeur, _Horses at Work: Harnessing Power in Industrial America_ by Greene, _Treason in the Northern Quarter: War, Terror, and the Rule of Law in the Dutch Revolt_ by Nierop, and _This Vast Southern Empire: Slaveholders at the Helm of American Foreign Policy_ by Karp. Only the last two could be seen as attempting to assess responsibility for atrocities. But even they both proceed precisely as Cochran prescribes: by seeking to reconstruct the understandings, expectations, interests, fears and enthusiasms of the participants. I can only wonder what sort of historiography he has sampled.

  • @ExxylcrothEagle
    @ExxylcrothEagle11 күн бұрын

    Oh Churchill was studying those Crowley recordings for sure