Heuristics and biases in decision making, explained
We all use heuristics to make everyday decisions - but sometimes they blind us to the truth. So we need to do something that doesn’t come easy: accept that our ideas might be wrong.
Behavioral Economics (video series): Join Prof. Antony Davies of Duquesne University and Erika Davies of George Mason University as they take you on a crash course of behavioral economics, discussing topics like rational choice, heuristics, nudging, and public choice economics. • Behavioral Economics, ...
What Voters Want (article): This article explains how heuristics affect voter behavior. www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/op...
Thinking, Fast and Slow (book): Psychologist and behavioral economist Daniel Kahneman explains common cognitive biases we fall victim to and explains how we can learn to see past them www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-...
TRANSCRIPT:
For a full transcript please visit: www.learnliberty.org/videos/wh...
LEARN LIBERTY:
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Пікірлер: 227
I am here because of thinking fast and slow book... :)
@gabeflores4553
3 жыл бұрын
Me
@joshalexander7114
3 жыл бұрын
Same
@TBadalov
3 жыл бұрын
Wannabe CEO, right?
@niloychakravorty3832
3 жыл бұрын
Hahaha, exactly
@vinu1nair
2 жыл бұрын
Me too ❤
Punch Line: "Recognizing the flawed nature of your thinking is a bold first step to challenging it."
Thanks. You've opened my eyes to the #SquareEarth.
00:18 "Heuristics" are straight-forward rules of thumb that we develop based on our past experiences. they are cognitive tools that help make quick decisions or judgments. 00:26
@anniejane1669
2 жыл бұрын
00 0.0
@tombristowe846
2 жыл бұрын
A sort of mental rat-run maybe.
Thanks for adding this new word "heuristic" to my brain's vocab!
this low-key is targeting flat-earth believers
@ryrilo5078
4 жыл бұрын
Coli2vain..it wasn't even low key. And it was actually doing the very thing it was explaining.
@jathebest2835
3 жыл бұрын
It also attacked me who is a banana-shaped earth believer..
@InspiredonYT
3 жыл бұрын
Coli2vain Oh no, how sinful!
@jacketnipple
2 жыл бұрын
@@jathebest2835 atleast it's semi round but long ..
@mickeywood3012
2 жыл бұрын
It's more like he's channeling Edmund Husserl, who taught about Phenomenology early in the 1900's Germany. What's important about this message is EVERYBODY is unique. All Knowledge is relative to the individual.
The idea of heuristics is a very helpful way to get to an answer faster when making decisions that may not allow time for deliberation.
I was searching for this as a computer science college student, thank you for your information
@LearnLiberty
Жыл бұрын
Glad it was helpful!
A brilliant example of an informative video. Thanks for the upload!
@nondescriptnyc
2 жыл бұрын
I agree-but the example about pre-selecting outfits (at 0:40) isn’t technically heuristics b/c it is not technically “cutting corners” cognitively, in my opinion, b/c you are merely making decisions about your outfit in advance, so that you won’t have to make that decision as you get ready. In other words, you might go through extensive, resource-intensive decisions about your outfit on the evening before going to work, so that would not meet the definition(s) of heuristics, I don’t think.
This is amazing. Thank u for making it easier for me to study cognitive psychology HAHA
read the book "Thinking Fast and Slow"
@christianhill8681
4 жыл бұрын
traves troy hence why I ended up here
@chrisdrew323
4 жыл бұрын
I have the book. Have not opened yet...I'm hoping its good
@setiawanaji3686
3 жыл бұрын
that is why i am here
Short and sweet and easy to follow. Very interesting video.
Beauuuuutiful video, my guy. Thanks for that
I'd be careful saying the world is less violent than ever before but I see your point and this is an awesome video. The animation is a wonderful touch. Great job.😃
This is a really well planned video.
Very nice this presentation. Congratulations!!
Helping the youtube search heuristics by saying this is indeed a very good explanation :D 5 stars
00:37 For example, rather than spending time deciding what to wear every day, you might have some default outfits. Or when faced with a lunch menu with room many options, you may opt for what you've enjoyed in the past. 00:50
Thank you! Very helpful!
Excellent Explanation.
This is so helpful - Thinking fast and slow.
@rh5831
3 жыл бұрын
kzread.info/dash/bejne/eH1mpsGDiafIh9o.html
Ive been talking about this ever since I heard it back in 2014-2015 and I swear I felt like I was being gaslit when I would explain it to people.
00:03 "Every day you make decisions and judgments. Sometimes you're able to think about them carefully, but other times you make them on the fly using little information. 00:18 this is where Heuristics come in. 00:18
Thank you for this 😅 you have cleared my heuristic methods topic now i just want four principles of heuristic method...
Well Done. Thank you. Although I may be using the anchoring bias to come to that conclusion.
awesome!!! great video!
Excellent!
Have to write a paper on heuristics for class, and I didn’t know what it is. Thanks, this saved me lol
Love the video! Thanks :)
@rh5831
3 жыл бұрын
kzread.info/dash/bejne/eH1mpsGDiafIh9o.html
What a fantastic video, thank you.
Clear explanation, much better than my dr explanation in my OB lesson.
Citing this for a Uni essay - thank you!
super easy to understand, i like
1:39 In fact, a slew of other heuristics can lead us to mistaken conclusions; and it doesn't matter how smart or well-educated you are. Anyone can place too much trust in the mental shortcuts they use to make sense of the world - take this example.
Nice video. Curious though, at the end you talk about the "needing to be humble" in our approach with others and their views. However, I was wondering how you go about avoiding 'moral relativism' with an approach like that? What do you use to buttress against it?
@DoomOrb
3 жыл бұрын
Your morals, for one. I'd like to emphasize that heuristics are about problem solving quickly, often with a lack of information, time, energy, etc. The section about staying humble was referring to how heuristics can be misleading, using stereotypes as am example.
Thank you.
Great video. Still can’t explain heuristics to others in layman’s terms..
@UXSpecialist
5 жыл бұрын
How about: "Shortcuts to decision making based on our experience." Or more simply: "How people make decisions quickly without all the details."
@miguelmurill1
4 жыл бұрын
Good point. The presenter doesn't know what he's talking about and actually is taking is subject-matter for granted. How do I know? Here's a test: If you can't replace the word "heuristics" with another simple word, you haven't understood the subject-matter or the presenter has done a bad job. Conclusion: the presenter has done a bad job.
@jacketnipple
3 жыл бұрын
It's just instincts and intuition..the video presents a long overcomplicated explanation. (Heuristics is what an aristocratic smart a** would say lol)
@garygnunewzoorevue5748
3 жыл бұрын
@@miguelmurill1 he says that they are rules of thumb based on past experience.
@miguelmurill1
3 жыл бұрын
@@garygnunewzoorevue5748 Ok. Rules of thumb to heuristics--as far as vocabulary goes--is a huge jump. Thanks to the academics.
Much like intuition, heuristics is a shortcut to making a decision. Essentially, it's a more logical way of going from point A to point G, H, I, J, sometimes even all the way to Z.
The voice in this video 😍
The voice of Daniel Pink!
Arthur Schopenhauer did study dialeticity heuristic: how people argue to each other looking for won the speech but without get reasonable. In The Art of Always Being Right (book).
@clysen8234
5 жыл бұрын
This is something that I, as a rational thinker, experience a lot. It's frustrating that you have to explain everything.
Up till 17th of Aug, 2021, 132 individuals who disliked this video still considers Earth flat or squared.
2:39 But in multiple studies, physicians routinely get this wrong, overestimating the likelihood that their patient actually has the disease. Psychologists call this the "Representativeness Heuristic". People assume People assume an individual case is more representative than it actually is. 2:53
Great 👍🏻
Heuristics are only helpful when there is huge uncertainty and frequency observations cannot be made to help make a decision but one is needed! The example you made about violence and war can actually be measured in numbers and frequency over the century to compare how violent the world is on average so in that case heuristic thinking can form biases and inaccurate results!
I feel like crying when I learn something positive
I have an exam today and I need review .
What is the program name?
so according to what you said till 1:43 heuristics can be right or wrong?
@BrysenBryant
4 жыл бұрын
satchTech yes they can mislead you
Great vid
@rh5831
3 жыл бұрын
kzread.info/dash/bejne/eH1mpsGDiafIh9o.html
01:24 That's examples of violence that are so readily available, we just naturally assume the world is more violent today. But in fact, the world is more peaceful today than ever before in human history. 01:34
Seems more like cognitive dissonance, and understandable ignorance or just plain conditioning as a result of heuristic principle.
It's so weird how I got here. I watched 2001 a space odyssey and wanted to know why the A.I in the movie was called hal 9000. Turns out it's an acronym for Heuristically Programmed ALgorithmic Computer. I had no idea what heuristically meant so I googled it and ended up here.
@rh5831
3 жыл бұрын
kzread.info/dash/bejne/eH1mpsGDiafIh9o.html
Now i dont have to search for the meaning again and again,and can complete my book🤓
Essentially it’s like putting a shovel in your brain and dig out what ever that’s familiar to you.
00:50 Heuristics aren't about the perfect decisions or judgment, just about making one quickly. Heuristic play a role in our reasoning about the broader world too. As an example, consider the rate of violence in the world in the past century. Is the world more or less violent in the past 20 years than previously?
I made a quick decision to substitute the word "heuristics" with "biases".
@natemills9030
3 жыл бұрын
Look into the difference, it's interesting
@peterstrous7075
3 жыл бұрын
@@natemills9030 I'm a bit intrigued about your comment. I see our biases come from our heuristics as heuristics are quick decisions avoiding having to gather all evidence from all possibly different perspectives before making our decisions. In other words, our biases are embedded into our heuristics. Is this the way you see it or how else do you see the difference between "heuristics" and "biases"?
2:25 In fact, based on the prevalence of the disease and the test result, we can be 99% sure he doesn't have the disease. This is because the odds of getting of a positive result, 1 in 10, are much higher than the odds of actually having the disease, 1 in 1000. 2:39
@tombullish3198
3 ай бұрын
This is so absolutely wrong, the doctor already did diagnosis. So at that point the actual chances of a statistical 1 in a 1000 prevalency would have already dropped significantly,. Saying you can be sure to say a patient doesn't have the disease because of a possible 10% false positive and putting it in relation to the prevalence statistic and the just dividing their difference is such a logical fallacy and ludicrous. It is evident that this youtuber does not understand medical diagnosis or prevalency. It is a disgrace honestly.
Our political views can especially suffer from an over-reliance on heuristics. ...
Surely you would need to look at more than cause of death statistics to determine violence in general. Violence does not assume death as the byproduct.
I am here after reading the book thinking fast and slow
That example with the false positive medical test is not accurate at all. If a doctor was randomly testing people regardless of symptoms, perhaps it would make sense. But if you have a medical problem sever enough to go get a test, and the doctor is concerned enough to order that test, and the result comes back positive, you'd better not be 99% sure that the test is wrong. What kind of advice is that?
@NoName-cp4ct
6 жыл бұрын
Unreliable one, but in some cases relevant.
@Ryan-ts3py
6 жыл бұрын
The minimum probability that you don't have the disease is 10%, but we can safely assume that the actual odds against you having the disease are higher still. If we assume that it's closer to 20%, that's a far cry from 99%, but still a one in five chance you're totally fine. The appropriate course of action here is to do another test (or two), to reduce the odds of being treated for a disease you don't have.
@MaxvergaxS
6 жыл бұрын
It's Bayesian theorem in action, look it up
@bejoysen4468
6 жыл бұрын
It is good advice. You wouldn't want to go through a mastectomy only to realize you never had breast cancer. Be aware of the false positive rate and choose a treatment accordingly.
@ericbakuladavis
6 жыл бұрын
I agree the video's example would make sense only if the 10% false positive rate were based on testing random people. As you said, if it were based on people tested for medical reasons, I expect the false positive rate would go down.
So how is heuristics different from intuition?
@rabimcat6859
2 жыл бұрын
I think that intuition is more of using alot of information at once really fast, and heuristics is more like (experiences) that are coded into our brains which we use without thinking. For example, let's say that women have really good intuition in general and they can tell if a man is cheating on them because they can see how they act differently, notice few details, and may have an intuition that they cheating. Heuristics, on the other hand, may be shown when a woman has a friend group where they found out ( or think) that all their boyfriends are cheating on them, so the girl starts to assume that her boyfriend is cheating on her too.
@Learn Liberty SUPER AMAZING VIDEO Completely ruined by Background music Can you Please Please Please Please Please Please re-upload this, with out BG music so i can watch it. I only made it 2 minutes in and that noise was too much. PLEASE uplaod this with out music.
This seemed to be about the pitfalls of heuristics of psychology, but not what a heuristic is.
How could you demonstrate a representativeness heuristic?
This channel will beat prageru.
00:24 Life would be exhausting if we had to deliberate over every one of the hundreds of choices we make every day. So instead we use our heuristics as shortcuts to make judgments about the world around us.
short cuts can cut short the outcome.
"It's important to be humble about our views." "We have to listen to opinions we may initially consider wrong or even offensive." You sir are cancelled!
@rabimcat6859
2 жыл бұрын
Flat earther confirmed
@rabimcat6859
2 жыл бұрын
jkjkjk, this video is about cognitive development (on here because i'm studying). Please don't make it more than it is. I think his example was really good in explaining availability heuristics (I think in this case is due to group polarization). He's saying that you shouldn't just go based off of what you or others think, do some research with an open mind and find out for yourself!! oh and by the way! Don't fall into a conformation bias :)
@rabimcat6859
2 жыл бұрын
@Learn Liberty. Please correct me if i'm wrong but what type of heuristic is it? availability or representativeness?
01:09 Heuristic reasoning might lead us to think that the world is more violent today than it has been in the past. Every day we're confronted with images of tragedy in the news and on social media. We might reasonably assume that the world is more violent today than ever before, using what's called an "availability heuristic". 01:24
@rh5831
3 жыл бұрын
kzread.info/dash/bejne/eH1mpsGDiafIh9o.html
So what are heuristic
2:03 Let's say a person tests positive for a rare disease, one that only one-in-a-thousand people have. What is the likelihood that he has the disease? Most of us would say that the likelihood is very high based on the test results alone. But what if the result was inaccurate 10% of the time. The false positive rate is 10% - a common number in medical tests. Then it is highly unlikely our patient has the disease. 2:25
@peterstrous7075
3 жыл бұрын
this doesn't make sense to me. If the false positive rate is 10% and a person tests positive, the likelihood of having the disease would be 90% not? If the video would be correct here there would be no point doing such a test since a negative result is likely correct and a positive result (according to the video) is likely incorrect. That would mean that the result is negative regardless of the outcome of the test. Hence why do the test if that were correct?
Bro im hear bc i keep misspelling “hru”
Is Heuristics something similar to making impulsive decisions bruh?
"but in fact the world is more peaceful today then ever before" while showing a graph representing...just europe
who the hell would think that the world is more violent now than ever ?! LOL
Same here ☝
If 1:1000 people chosen at random have that disease, but he was tested for it because he's symptomatic (not chosen at random, but self selected), then the odds he actually has the disease are much higher.
I am here because of the Science of Self Learning..
my man really took a jab at flat earthers
yes
Rodney McKay, is that you?
Psychology teacher sent me here
So heuristics is just an academic word meaning... 'common sense assumptions that might occasionally be wrong.' Thank God for academia.
@lilChillDiddlerMane
4 жыл бұрын
"common sense" itself is a heuristic, strategy devised based off previous experience that we use to make quick decisions. Its not about whether its wrong or not, actually its not about being "right" or "wrong" its simply any method we use to make a quick decision. For example, always pick C in a multiple choice question, would be a heuristic
well...quite interesting to look at this in 2020 😂
30 flat earthers disliked this video
the "violence" example aged like milk
It was all going so well until the doctor section 🙈
@IVespidI
3 жыл бұрын
Yeah, I'm really trying to figure out how the conclusion posited here makes sense statistically. Based on my understanding of statistics, 10% false positive means that of the subset of positive test results, 10% aren't really positive and 90% are actually positive. The 1 in 1000 stat is irrelevant because he's already in the subset of people who have been tested positive. He has a 90% probability of being positive. I can't think of any way to add multiply or divide 10%, 90% and 0.1% (1 in 1000) to get 99%.
@jathebest2835
3 жыл бұрын
@@IVespidI I agree with you..maybe he should've explained how the deduction was calculated like that..
@IVespidI
3 жыл бұрын
@@jathebest2835 it's hard these days to not assume foul intentintions when I see something so clearly wrong. but I think maybe in this case the guy just honestly made a mistake. Good video otherwise!
@gsczo
3 жыл бұрын
@@IVespidI Search for bayes theorem
@IVespidI
3 жыл бұрын
@@gsczo thanks for the tip.
1:34 We may hear a lot of violent events but in terms of raw numbers, fewer people die today in the hands of other human beings than ever before. So that heuristic about how violent the world today is, is incorrect. 1:39
But…there are more people today, so the percentages are skewed. By how much, hard to say.
I was sent here by jorbs
Well we were also in world wars in the past sooo what if those were gone, violence would probably have increased.
@timblessing2815
3 жыл бұрын
And THAT, friends, is how a heuristic works.
The Earth is square! Lol
it sometimes sound same as schema
These things need to taught in school .
Wait a minute... this isn't family guy funny moments #46
Thanks for explaining this to my GF better than I did.
Heuristics are not a bad thing. Without them we'd still be stuck calculating if we should get out of bed in the morning.
@DougASAP
10 ай бұрын
I didn't get up today until after noon.
0.9991% to be specific