Global Tipping Points Status: Nearing Earth System Tipping Points demand a Societal Transformation

Ғылым және технология

While COP28 occurred in Dubai, UAE near the end of last year, a landmark paper on the present status of Global Tipping Points was released.
This video here is my first one on this group and report led by Timothy Lenton and the University of Exeter.
The report goes into great detail on the myriad of Earth System tipping points and how they can fall like cascading dominos, vicious feedbacks, or a “House of Cards”. There is tremendous urgency since many of these thresholds for negative tipping points are fast approaching, and Early Warning Signals show that some have likely already been crossed.
To counter these negative tipping points (also known to scientists as positive feedbacks) we need human caused positive tipping points (also known to scientists as negative feedbacks).
Humans really are in a tug-of-war to remain on this planet in the form of a viable civilization: at the moment we are failing miserably, and act like there is no tomorrow.
Website:
Global Tipping Points
global-tipping-points.org/
“Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26 countries.
The Global Tipping Points Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023. The report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society.
Foreword by Dr. Andrew Steer, President & CEO at Bezos Earth Fund.”
Report PDF (open source): please read
Download Full Report from global-tipping-points.org/
“Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
For example, the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s great overturning circulation combined with global warming could cause half of the global area for growing wheat and maize to be lost.
Five major tipping points are already at risk of being crossed due to warming right now and three more are threatened in the 2030s as the world exceeds 1.5°C global warming. The full damage caused by negative tipping points will be far greater than their initial impact. The effects will cascade through
globalised social and economic systems, and could exceed the ability of some countries to adapt. Negative tipping points show that the threat posed by the climate and ecological crisis is far
more severe than is commonly understood and is of a magnitude never before faced by humanity.
Currently, there is no adequate global governance at the scale of the threats posed by negative tipping points. The world is on a disastrous trajectory. Crossing one harmful tipping point
could trigger others, causing a domino effect of accelerating and unmanageable change to our life-support systems. Preventing this - and doing so equitably - should become the core goal and logic
of a new global governance framework. Prevention is only possible if societies and economic systems are transformed to rapidly reduce emissions and restore nature.
The current approach of linear incremental change favoured by many decision makers is no longer an option. Existing governance institutions and decision-making approaches need to adapt to
facilitate transformational change.
Crucial to achieving this transformational change are positive tipping point opportunities, where desirable changes in society become self-propelling. Concerted actions can create the enabling conditions for triggering rapid and large-scale
transformation. Human history is flush with examples of abrupt social and technological change. Recent examples include the exponential increases in renewable electricity, the global reach of environmental justice movements, and the accelerating rollout of electric vehicles. Negative tipping point threats could be mitigated
if there was a vast effort to trigger other positive tipping point opportunities.
Unfortunately, in the time lag during which appropriate governance and action might be realised, negative tipping points could still be triggered. This means that societies must urgently
be made more resilient to minimise the vast and unequal harms. Critically, more resilient societies are also needed to ensure that collective focus on triggering positive tipping point opportunities
can be sustained even through a negative tipping event. This resiliency can be achieved with ‘no regrets’ actions that anyway make societies more sustainable, equitable and prosperous.
The existence of tipping points means that ‘business as usual’ is now over. Rapid changes to nature and society are occurring, and more are coming. If we don’t revise our governance approach, these changes could overwhelm societies…
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

Пікірлер: 210

  • @PaulHBeckwith
    @PaulHBeckwith2 ай бұрын

    While COP28 occurred in Dubai, UAE near the end of last year, a landmark paper on the present status of Global Tipping Points was released. This video here is my first one on this group and report led by Timothy Lenton and the University of Exeter. The report goes into great detail on the myriad of Earth System tipping points and how they can fall like cascading dominos, vicious feedbacks, or a “House of Cards”. There is tremendous urgency since many of these thresholds for negative tipping points are fast approaching, and Early Warning Signals show that some have likely already been crossed. To counter these negative tipping points (also known to scientists as positive feedbacks) we need human caused positive tipping points (also known to scientists as negative feedbacks). Humans really are in a tug-of-war to remain on this planet in the form of a viable civilization: at the moment we are failing miserably, and act like there is no tomorrow. Website: Global Tipping Points global-tipping-points.org/ “Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26 countries. The Global Tipping Points Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023. The report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. Foreword by Dr. Andrew Steer, President & CEO at Bezos Earth Fund.” Report PDF (open source): please read Download Full Report from global-tipping-points.org/ “Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies. For example, the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s great overturning circulation combined with global warming could cause half of the global area for growing wheat and maize to be lost. Five major tipping points are already at risk of being crossed due to warming right now and three more are threatened in the 2030s as the world exceeds 1.5°C global warming. The full damage caused by negative tipping points will be far greater than their initial impact. The effects will cascade through globalised social and economic systems, and could exceed the ability of some countries to adapt. Negative tipping points show that the threat posed by the climate and ecological crisis is far more severe than is commonly understood and is of a magnitude never before faced by humanity. Currently, there is no adequate global governance at the scale of the threats posed by negative tipping points. The world is on a disastrous trajectory. Crossing one harmful tipping point could trigger others, causing a domino effect of accelerating and unmanageable change to our life-support systems. Preventing this - and doing so equitably - should become the core goal and logic of a new global governance framework. Prevention is only possible if societies and economic systems are transformed to rapidly reduce emissions and restore nature. The current approach of linear incremental change favoured by many decision makers is no longer an option. Existing governance institutions and decision-making approaches need to adapt to facilitate transformational change. Crucial to achieving this transformational change are positive tipping point opportunities, where desirable changes in society become self-propelling. Concerted actions can create the enabling conditions for triggering rapid and large-scale transformation. Human history is flush with examples of abrupt social and technological change. Recent examples include the exponential increases in renewable electricity, the global reach of environmental justice movements, and the accelerating rollout of electric vehicles. Negative tipping point threats could be mitigated if there was a vast effort to trigger other positive tipping point opportunities. Unfortunately, in the time lag during which appropriate governance and action might be realised, negative tipping points could still be triggered. This means that societies must urgently be made more resilient to minimise the vast and unequal harms. Critically, more resilient societies are also needed to ensure that collective focus on triggering positive tipping point opportunities can be sustained even through a negative tipping event. This resiliency can be achieved with ‘no regrets’ actions that anyway make societies more sustainable, equitable and prosperous. The existence of tipping points means that ‘business as usual’ is now over. Rapid changes to nature and society are occurring, and more are coming. If we don’t revise our governance approach, these changes could overwhelm societies… Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

  • @tornadoclips2022

    @tornadoclips2022

    2 ай бұрын

    We are already hitting them… last year Canada and still the Amazon rainforest. Also the Russian permafrost bomb is probably going to start this summer. Amoc already slowing down etc

  • @fadya3901

    @fadya3901

    Ай бұрын

    Do not fear change is good for us. If my feet get wet in my house it’s time to move inland 😂

  • @A3Kr0n
    @A3Kr0n2 ай бұрын

    Another paper on what's wrong and what we can do about it does nothing, even if it's 500 pages long. You know and I know and all your viewers know it ain't gonna happen. Enjoy what you have today.

  • @satkinson5505

    @satkinson5505

    Ай бұрын

    But it's so much fun feeling superior while I run around yelling "the sky is falling". And you ain't seen oceans rise and ice melt yet,but it's coming.

  • @simonsays5587
    @simonsays55872 ай бұрын

    A man is falling down a 10 story building. At every floor he yells: everything ok so far....

  • @damienpalmer242

    @damienpalmer242

    2 ай бұрын

    At every floor he yells: the alarmists said this would kill me …

  • @SamuelBlackMetalRider

    @SamuelBlackMetalRider

    2 ай бұрын

    « Jusqu’ici tout va bien, jusqu’ici tout va bien… »

  • @satkinson5505

    @satkinson5505

    Ай бұрын

    Everyone could see a man falling 10 stories. Everyone cannot see the sun getting hotter and the oceans rising and the ice melting. Because it is not.

  • @lotus.b.lazuli2020
    @lotus.b.lazuli20202 ай бұрын

    Long time watcher, first time commenter, but I had to thank you for your relentless enthusiasm and diligent scientific exploration in respect to this cause. You explain everything so well; it's so important to put videos like this out there.... I'm reluctantly pessimistic, but I've been on a long journey of recovery in my own home for a few years now, and was over the moon to have a small garden out back. I transformed a barren lawn into a bourgeoning wildlife paradise with a pond, planted every native tree and shrub I could fit and afford, and allowed all of the native weeds to grow as they don't cost anything and are some of the most important plants! I feed all of the red listed birds other people call a nuisance, and I give love unconditionally to that pocket-sized eco-system. I'm never going to have a family of my own, so it's a privilege and an honour to watch it all grow, to know that in the heat, I can give water and shade. That's all I feel like I can do, when I feel so helpless about the bigger picture; mitigate and nurture this patch of land for the rest of my days. x

  • @TheDoomWizard
    @TheDoomWizard2 ай бұрын

    I bring up this subject to about a half a dozen new people several days of the week for the past 4 years and I can tell you for an absolute fact that no one gives a damn. Our lives will get worse and worse as time goes on. We're in the end.

  • @PaulaTourville-po7fg

    @PaulaTourville-po7fg

    2 ай бұрын

    I've lived in SW Florida for over thirty -five years . Pretty much ground zero for many Climate Change impacts . Hurricane Ian hit us pretty much head on. All I see is more and more building in extreme risk areas , disrespect for water resources and Nature . Stupid . All I see is absolute stupidity.

  • @robbenfelix

    @robbenfelix

    2 ай бұрын

    eh, thats one point of view. there was a time i thought that poverty would make my life worse, and at that time i also thought being wrong was bad - among a whole heap of other delusional shit i believed in. now i know that poverty has made me and my life better, and being wrong is the best shit (right after doing good for others with no expectation of getting anything in return).

  • @koicaine1230

    @koicaine1230

    2 ай бұрын

    What I don't get is that people are willing to admit that it's game over when it comes to fixing the climate but they won't do the most basic things to help them live through what's coming, it absolutely baffles me.

  • @lesbrattain6864

    @lesbrattain6864

    2 ай бұрын

    Me too. When I bring this up I get yaws and glazed eye balls.

  • @satkinson5505

    @satkinson5505

    Ай бұрын

    These are crazy, violent times. The threat of nuclear war is very real. But you want to obsess over an imaginary climate crisis. That's why you get glassy stares. You can't be reasoned out of your delusion because it wasn't reason that brought you there. It was an emotional reaction to a lie.

  • @namnack
    @namnack2 ай бұрын

    I like how Canadians say "about'. As for the rest, staying up to date seems utterly counter intuitive to me. It's like knowing your house is gonna burn down to the ground and getting updates on which floor just caught fire.

  • @DrSmooth2000
    @DrSmooth20002 ай бұрын

    The mess behind him used to reflect the sound better. No pleasing everybody

  • @demontrader1222
    @demontrader12222 ай бұрын

    Not a hope in hell. In fact the madness will pick up pace.

  • @rosemaryfabian2920

    @rosemaryfabian2920

    2 ай бұрын

    Jesus Christ Blood is only way

  • @rosemaryfabian2920

    @rosemaryfabian2920

    2 ай бұрын

    Get saved

  • @demontrader1222

    @demontrader1222

    2 ай бұрын

    @rosemaryfabian2920 You're religion is a huge part of the problem and I say that with all due respect. I have a low opinion of group think of any kind ie religions as a system of thought

  • @DrSmooth2000

    @DrSmooth2000

    2 ай бұрын

    ​@@demontrader1222you do have demon as a handle so your aversion makes sense.

  • @demontrader1222

    @demontrader1222

    2 ай бұрын

    @DrSmooth2000 I don't believe in demons. Evolutionarily, impossible. Humans are semi barbaric so are highly delusional and consider themselves saintly even when complying with their semi conscious drivers. No one is flawless on this planet

  • @alienoverlordsnow1786
    @alienoverlordsnow17862 ай бұрын

    A utopian societal transformation would be wonderful, and it would have saved the biosphere, if it had happened 200 years ago. Lets not pretend that it would would make any difference at this point. Humans have done extreme damage to the ecosphere and much of it is irrepparable. But to start, the immediate removal of three trillion tons of greenhouse gas from the atmosphere, is what is paramount, and it is not close to being technically feasible. 7c of abrupt, lethal global heating is locked in, just by current ppm ghg concentrations. The co2 is recalcitrant. It stays in the skies for a thousand years. It doesnt just fall out when emmissions decrease. When you multiply that 7c of locked in heating, by all the climate feedbacks that have already been triggered and add 2.5c when global dimming is lost,( when civiliation collapses in a few years, or when utopia is established) you quickly end up approaching 34c , the evaporation of the oceans, the doubling of atmospheric pressure and venusian superheating. Every climate scientist there is, is pretending that switching to cleaner energy and modifying society, will solve the climate catastrophe, and stablize global temp at a managable level, which is hogwash. You cant blaim them. Their jobs depend on pretending that there is reason to hope and to be optimistic, that the climate problem is solvable, its not a predicatment with no solution, and that reducing emmissions and switching to electric cars and wind turbines and solar panels will save the day. Tell the truth as a clmate scientist,( that we are doomed, that nthe is quickly approaching and that intervention will have only a negligible effect,) and they would all find themselves unemployed and blacklisted, like Guy Macpherson. The only way Utopia could be established on earth, would be if super AI robots controlled and governed the planet with an iron fist. (The super AI would first have to rapidly remove 3 trillion tons of greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.) Human government always leads to massive overpopulation, and it always degenerates into extreme corruption, environmental devastation and warfare.

  • @russmarkham2197

    @russmarkham2197

    2 ай бұрын

    Hi. I thought I was one of the more pessimistic people, and I am in the James Hansen camp, but reading your post makes me think I am actually still (possibly too) optimistic. I actually don't think 7 C heating is locked in (if so we are all soon extinct). I think about 2 C heating is truly locked in. That is bad enough. And you are right I think that the removal of the excess CO2 and other GHGs is probably impossible. However, in my view we still need to research climate repair options and try to reduce future CO2 emissions. Our extinction is not inevitable

  • @odhrancrowe3894

    @odhrancrowe3894

    2 ай бұрын

    I don't think anything on the scale nesseary is possible because of how we operate our society. War far more probable for sure. But like if we were somehow able to completely cover land in forest it would be pulling towards the carbon sequestration side. Helping the EEI. Along with many other measures of course. It probably is possible to avoid 7c. But no way we are going to change. The way of thinking people one channels like this have will continue to be fringe. We will get so much worse. It will be slow(relatively) and painful to witness. Crazy times. Amazing.

  • @yancgc5098

    @yancgc5098

    2 ай бұрын

    You mean we end up approaching 34°C average global temperature or that we will increase the average global temperature by 34°C? Cuz if the latter then that’s just nonsense. Burning all the fossil fuels available to Earth would not turn our planet into Venus

  • @russmarkham2197
    @russmarkham21972 ай бұрын

    we are all in the "cry"osphere now.

  • @edtremblay6694
    @edtremblay66942 ай бұрын

    I haven't even watched this video to know that we have probably passed the point of no return the way I see it. It seems to me that the climate catastrophe is accelerating with no hope of slowing down until the use of fossil fuel is stopped completely. The earths landmass is hot. The earths oceans are hot. The artic is hot. The antarctic is hot. Hot isn't going away because it's taken only a couple hundred years to do this. Mostly in the last 80 years. How can you undo all this is such a short time frame? There's so much positive feedbacks with negative outcomes such as melting ice caps at the north and south poles. Melting of Greenland and all the glaciers on all the mountain ranges across the planet. Melting permafrost and sooner or later after the ice melts over the artic ocean, which will warm the artic ocean water releasing methane from methane hydrates on the bottom of the Eastern Siberian shelf. This is a possibility with grave consequences for everything on the planet. Global heating is accelerating and accelerating and accelerating. What's actually been done in the last twenty year? NOTHING...if there was something done we wouldn't be in a climate catastrophe. Talk talk talk talk and no viable action that's going to reduce greenhouse gasses like methane, carbon dioxide, and water vapor. In my country, instead of reducing our carbon footprint...it's accelerating. The automotive industry isn't making vehicles any smaller. The size of vehicles is unbelievable. A huge vehicle for one or two people to drive around in using fossil fuel. Billions of vehicles driving every day. Probably over 200 hundred thousand jet flights every day. Thousands and thousands of ships. Planes,trains, ships, automobiles and rockets aren't going away overnight with the time frame at hand with the ensuing climate catastrophe. I think our goose is cooked in the climate crisis we are in.

  • @lukehoefler4317

    @lukehoefler4317

    2 ай бұрын

    I hear that there is a 30 to 40 year lag in the heating of co2 so i the heating wont slow until 30 years after all emissions are stopped and when we stop emitting aerosols the temp will spike some 5 degrees in just weeks. If even 3 of the 470 or more nuclear reactors is allowed to melt down and erupt into the atmosphere the all the ozone layer will go . iI agree our goose is fall off the bone done.

  • @SSJ4dude

    @SSJ4dude

    2 ай бұрын

    I just wanna grill

  • @russmarkham2197

    @russmarkham2197

    2 ай бұрын

    after our civilization collapses and we lose the ability to spew more CO2, perhaps the climate will recover in 200 years? Whether any humans will be around to see that is an interesting question.

  • @ScottBrooker-oh5ym

    @ScottBrooker-oh5ym

    2 ай бұрын

    They are building a huge atmospheric scrubber to manage that. Last price tag somewhere around $800 trillion US. Presses are printing money as I write. Run time estimate for all them Green backs 53 years.

  • @annaouverson7123

    @annaouverson7123

    Ай бұрын

    How is stopping the use of fossil fuels going to cool the oceans, the arctic and the antarctic? Even other planets are heating up.

  • @neverrl3379
    @neverrl33792 ай бұрын

    The part that hurts the most is, now that you use words like positive tipping points, it takes the spotlight AWAY from negative tipping points. So that people just don't care all together about the positive and negative, as they are lazy in thought.

  • @jimtaggert42

    @jimtaggert42

    Ай бұрын

    I agree

  • @jamiethrogmorton2540
    @jamiethrogmorton25402 ай бұрын

    I wish you wouldn’t say “save the earth” Paul. I know it’s a handy shorthand, but it would be more impactful IMO to refer to habitability for humans. “Keep conditions within the range of human habitability” is longer but that’s really what’s at state. Thanks for all. ☮️♻️🌏🧡

  • @gregwilvert

    @gregwilvert

    2 ай бұрын

    Save the biosphere

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    2 ай бұрын

    @@gregwilvert Insects will still be here long after humans have gone extinct. The biosphere can look after itself. It is only really about saving humans. But in fact, increasing CO2 increases crop yields, and so allows more humans to exist with less starvation. There is a very strong correlation between increasing CO2 and increasing biomass / greening of the planet.

  • @Mtmonaghan

    @Mtmonaghan

    2 ай бұрын

    Without us there is no one to mean the world. So he is right to say what he says. You need to open up to your existential spirituality, you and your technological thinking are the problem.

  • @basilbrushbooshieboosh5302
    @basilbrushbooshieboosh53022 ай бұрын

    2m by 2100? Huh! We are looking at 9m at least on our trajectory.

  • @jeanjacquesdessalines1425
    @jeanjacquesdessalines14252 ай бұрын

    Bravo Paul Beckwith et merci beaucoup.

  • @yorkiebuck
    @yorkiebuck2 ай бұрын

    Here's a tipping point - my local supermarket in West Yorkshire.England is now selling a standard large loaf of bread for £1.50 for the first time. I know it doesn't quite match what's described here. but only a few years ago it was only £1. Makes you wonder with the climate we even have now ,where for example in the UK farmers havent been able to get in the fields for months due to the 6 month deluge, what will be the price of that loaf in a few years time?

  • @russmarkham2197

    @russmarkham2197

    2 ай бұрын

    I am still tipping that loaf into my shopping cart

  • @danwilliams6003

    @danwilliams6003

    2 ай бұрын

    Sourdough is really nice and if you mill your own grain it works out at 40p for a 1lb loaf. Obviously you have to cook the bugger....but during winter as it was so warm we switched the heating off and cooked a loaf, crumble and baked potatoes and had loads of food and a warm home - food and home heating £5 per day. 4 in house £1.50 per person more for Dahl and instapot baked beans though still have 4lb pinto beans dried last year.

  • @juskahusk2247

    @juskahusk2247

    2 ай бұрын

    The bags used to be free. We didn't know we were born.

  • @DrSmooth2000

    @DrSmooth2000

    2 ай бұрын

    Farmers are getting low prices. Grocer be one to ask

  • @EmeraldView
    @EmeraldView2 ай бұрын

    I mean, I guess to put that much effort in to these things (and those who still do), you have to have some degree of hope that it's not too late to slam on the brakes of this runaway freight train before it goes over the cliff. Meanwhile there are those of us who think that the brakes are now broken and even if they functioned, we're 100 feet from the 500 foot high out bridge over a ravine, with a billions of tons and growing load behind us. That train's not stopping in time. Our best and only hope is some miracle fixes that bridge in time. Compassionate aliens or Super A.I. where are you? I'll pass on the brutal authoritarian psychopath that is the Christian 'god' however.

  • @klaatu368

    @klaatu368

    2 ай бұрын

    EmeraldView, nicely put! It seems unlikely that God, ET, or our own machines will save us from ourselves.

  • @klaatu368

    @klaatu368

    2 ай бұрын

    EmeraldView, nicely put! It seems unlikely that God, ET, or our own machines will save us from ourselves.

  • @2001Artfull
    @2001Artfull2 ай бұрын

    Your discussion on tipping points is extremely valuable but has been discussed by others previously. What I think is missing from the discussion are solutions. How, would society adapt to the problems created by 8 billion people consuming the majority of earth's productivity and spewing climate warming gasses into the atmosphere? Specifically, what do we need to do? Then, how will we convince those 8 billion people and the corporate powers that control their governments to make the appropriate changes? It won't be just switching to electric vehicles or putting up wind turbines and solar panels and expanding electric grids. It will require mass austerity and the reduction of the human population to get to a net zero state. Not an easy sell. No, I believe the lesson of the last 3 decades is that we are on the elevator to societal collapse and our social institutions are inadequate to the task of preventing it. Thanks for the optimism though. On the Titanic the band played on as the ship slipped beneath the waves. So too, we will meet our inevitable destiny.

  • @basilbrushbooshieboosh5302
    @basilbrushbooshieboosh53022 ай бұрын

    I'm glad that Ice-cliff instability is front and centre. That one will show its (unstable) face in the very near future, via the under-cutting of vast ocean-ending glaciers. This is where sea-level rise may show a step-change attitude as the WAIS is floated off its anchor rocks.

  • @punditgi
    @punditgi2 ай бұрын

    Very important topic. Many thanks for this video!

  • @maxlovell9734
    @maxlovell97342 ай бұрын

    Thanks for another great video Paul.

  • @Spice1_
    @Spice1_2 ай бұрын

    Great video Ty

  • @melaniehassler2405
    @melaniehassler24052 ай бұрын

    Here we are yet again, very far passed the point of no return, getting lectures about how awful things will be in 100 years from people who aren't so worried that they stopped having children

  • @johngaudet6316
    @johngaudet6316Ай бұрын

    Thank you so much Paul for your relentless information on the climate situation.

  • @pigstonwidget
    @pigstonwidget2 ай бұрын

    I believe it's all over now. There's nothing can be done. Humans won't change their behaviour and our consumption of everything is increasing. As a species on the whole we care little for other life on this planet. If we did then we quite possibly wouldn't have ended up here. The time for homo sapiens is done and they will be washed away. A new slate a new start with whatever comes next. So long and thanks for all the fish!

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    2 ай бұрын

    There is plenty that can be done. Solar geoengineering is relatively inexpensive, and can be started straight away using existing technology. The science is quite well understood. It just lacks political will to do it.

  • @pigstonwidget

    @pigstonwidget

    2 ай бұрын

    @@StabilisingGlobalTemperature the warming of oceans and lands is in process. The ice is melting. Solar geoengineering won't stop that. But we also have ecological overshoot and we are destroying the very fabric of life that sustains us.

  • @PerryMarshallScott

    @PerryMarshallScott

    2 ай бұрын

    Agree. There may be remnant small populations able to survive a little longer than the majority. The web of life is being ripped apart. The collapse is observable / measurable. We are just another animal. A self absorbed, rapacious species that will come to the end of our adaptive capacity and be swept along with everything else circling the drain.

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    2 ай бұрын

    @@pigstonwidget Solar geoengineering can very easily halt and reverse temperature rise. And at very small cost compared to other measures. And using technology that already exists and is quick and easy to deploy. It would completely halt temperature rise within a few years. Not the many decades that reducing CO2 would take in practice. Unless there is a miraculous development with carbon capture and storage, then we are on an upwards trajectory using current approaches. It is quite urgent now that we just get on with it, and ignore the naysayers. The naysayers have had decades to prove their approach, and have utterly failed. It is questionable whether CCS makes any sense energetically, so I would hold very little hope that it is a viable approach.

  • @Mtmonaghan

    @Mtmonaghan

    2 ай бұрын

    There in the darkness is also the answer. But it is not more bloody technology. This seeing our world as there for us and our Technology is the problem. Stop seeing the earth as standing reserve, there to be challenged forward as to BE something for us.

  • @hooplawithbilliesue8143
    @hooplawithbilliesue81432 ай бұрын

    Thanks Paul

  • @lesbrattain6864
    @lesbrattain68642 ай бұрын

    Well done, but why hide it in a 500 page paper that no one is going to read? I am VERY interested in CL change but even I, a fan of ours, had a hard time wading through the who wrote what etc. etc. for you to get to the point. This stuff NEEDS to be head lines in a readable form!

  • @michaeloreilly657
    @michaeloreilly6572 ай бұрын

    The comments seem to (reasonably) assume that there will be a negative political and social response to climate change. Would love further research, Paul.

  • @satkinson5505

    @satkinson5505

    Ай бұрын

    There should be negative responses to people trying to fix the climate. That is stupid and scary.

  • @VideoconferencingUSA
    @VideoconferencingUSA2 ай бұрын

    Nice job

  • @timothyhume3741
    @timothyhume3741Ай бұрын

    All other podcasts and KZread channels I watch have sufficient sound volume but yours never seems to I sure wish you could address this issue, Because I do find your work of great interest and value But I just cannot hear you clearly. Thank you Paul for your work.

  • @matthewevans963
    @matthewevans963Ай бұрын

    I love the optimism expressed by this report and, appreciate the attempt made to give people something to fight for. It may even have been warranted to some degree, assuming the majority of people were clear eyed, rational actors. Unfortunately we know that's not true. A very significant percentage are scientifically illiterate and, the majority operate on emotion and, habitual/programmed patterns of behaviour. The part of the report mentioning short-term adaptation and, resiliency is perhaps the most relevant and, where we aught to be directing the majority of our efforts. This way, we might better be able to weather the coming storm, at least in the short-term. Long-term, I'm very much a pessimist.

  • @CitiesForTheFuture2030
    @CitiesForTheFuture2030Ай бұрын

    Thanks for this video highlighting a "new" threat to global stability - I'm looking forward to going through this report with you (homework - visit the website & download the report; question - will there be an exam?). There is a reason the Paris Agreement chose 1.5C as its goal - tipping points. As we surpass 1.5C temporarily (due to El Nino) and possibly permanently quite soon, tipping points should now become the focus of conversation. As global warming intensifies, extreme weather events will intensify - this is a given. But now the prospects of surpassing various ecological & social tipping points is a serious threat and generally ignored by policy & decision-makers, economists etc, and activists. Hopefully this reports and your video serious will initiate awareness-raising. Up to now the discourse on climate change has been dominated by natural scientists. This report now makes it clear that it's time for social scientists & the humanities to be included in the discussion. While the ecological, biodiversity & climate crises will occur as a result of the laws of physics & nature, their underlying causes are human world views & philosophies, decision & policy making and actions. This is the realm, interest & area of study / expertise of the social scientist and humanities (it's in the titles). Going to get the popcorn, a juice & some sweeties, I think I'm going to need it - 500 pages... yikes!

  • @PirateOfTheWastes
    @PirateOfTheWastes2 ай бұрын

    So long and thanks for all the fish

  • @JHawkins-jf6bs

    @JHawkins-jf6bs

    2 ай бұрын

    Will there be 42 episodes, as was written in the Book of Answers by those that were there after the 7 million year wait? ...kzread.info/dash/bejne/k5ajvMWtoqvMe5s.html

  • @nicklang7670
    @nicklang7670Ай бұрын

    Remember real hope is demanding much better not asking for a bare minimum.

  • @ReefsofHope
    @ReefsofHope2 ай бұрын

    Hey Paul, has anyone considered that the collapse of Thwaites would not only cause rapid SLR, but also a rapid and complete overturning circulation collapse? SLR would have less impact on human societies that the resulting total thermohaline circulation collapse.

  • @pinkknitwit6449
    @pinkknitwit64492 ай бұрын

    I know nobody wants to estimate how long we have left, but at what point do you just 'exit stage left', i see no point in reaching the horror and anarchy if it can be avioded, but also what if something does change, and people make that decision too early. We are clearly in trouble, and i dare say i can tolerate more than i think i can, but starving to death or being killed for what little food I can grow, does not appeal. Has anyone identified thier own personal limit?

  • @alicesandiableu9926

    @alicesandiableu9926

    2 ай бұрын

    I think by 2026 all the uncertainty will become startlingly clear.

  • @Muddslinger0415

    @Muddslinger0415

    2 ай бұрын

    I can imagine seeing a lot of mass suicide happening when things for sure turn south.

  • @EmeraldView

    @EmeraldView

    2 ай бұрын

    Personally I have no interest in eeking out a painful miserable existence in a world that will be worse than Mad Max.

  • @leskuzyk2425
    @leskuzyk24252 ай бұрын

    Societal Transformation ... absolutely ... might intentional cultural redesign be an option. In my opinion, yes.

  • @nuravoid7096
    @nuravoid7096Ай бұрын

    Paul is the best.

  • @carlamcewen2361
    @carlamcewen2361Ай бұрын

    yes you can srr the CO2 increase on nullschool. New York area had been over 500 several times this year already...and lots more from where the fires were last year...not to mention methane from all the uncapped fracking wells and drill points.

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature
    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature2 ай бұрын

    At 27:42 the paper dismisses solar geoengineering, rather glibly. I am with you Paul, we do need it urgently. I suspect that what is happening is psychological rather than scientific. The mainstream climatologists are so immersed in the idea of reducing CO2 emissions that they are blind to at least 2 things: 1. That solar geoengineering can provide ample cooling, far more potentially than needed to stabilise temperature - and this is because temperature is some 5 or 6 orders of magnitude more sensitive to SO2 in the stratosphere than to CO2 overall in the atmosphere. 2. CO2 has a number of very great benefits - in particular a huge greening of the planet, much improved crop yields, and therefore much less starvation. It makes me wonder whether these climatologists have actually done the math regarding SO2. In any case they are only looking at one narrow aspect i.e. CO2 only, rather than looking holistically at the entire planetary system. In an appropriate concentration, SO2 is in fact hugely beneficial. At too high a concentration, yes, breathing difficulties and acid rain. But the required quantity in the stratosphere is several orders of magnitude lower than is a health problem. And at lower altitude is rapidly washed down by rain. So is not anywhere near a harmful level.

  • @DrSmooth2000

    @DrSmooth2000

    2 ай бұрын

    Climate related deaths are down. Resources Frontier Foundation said battery acid flakes based SRM reduces para tropical deaths at cost of high and high mid latitude deaths Forests growing nicely now. I'll skip acid rain for now tyvm

  • @DrSmooth2000

    @DrSmooth2000

    2 ай бұрын

    Climate related deaths are down. Resources Frontier Foundation said battery acid flakes based SRM reduces para tropical deaths at cost of high and high mid latitude deaths Forests growing nicely now. I'll skip acid rain for now tyvm

  • @koicaine1230
    @koicaine12302 ай бұрын

    Please create a Microclimate, grow food and flowers, think ahead, it will literally save your life ❤

  • @jffryh

    @jffryh

    2 ай бұрын

    Biosphere 2 failed. It can't be done.

  • @koicaine1230

    @koicaine1230

    2 ай бұрын

    @@jffryh I'm not living in a Biosphere and my efforts, so far, are paying off. I'm currently doubling down to better my odds even more.

  • @Patrick_Ross

    @Patrick_Ross

    2 ай бұрын

    @@koicaine1230 - you are, in fact, living in a biosphere. Look up the definition.

  • @koicaine1230

    @koicaine1230

    2 ай бұрын

    @@Patrick_Ross Ok, I am in a biosphere but it's a natural environment without a lab, just me and nature and the things I have done and am continuing to do, have had positive results from Mycorrhizal Fungi to new birds and an Army of Anoles

  • @frinoffrobis

    @frinoffrobis

    2 ай бұрын

    flowers? for the pollinators, I guess

  • @BROWNDIRTWARRIOR
    @BROWNDIRTWARRIOR2 ай бұрын

    We need to hasten the social responsibility tipping point and stop leaving this entirely to governments and industry. On this note, Paul, as part of my personal responsibility I have joined a carbon offset program. Do you recommend them? Do they actually help or are they largely greenwashing? I donate 60 dollars a month to help reduce my footprint to one called Wren,

  • @lordcrunk4790
    @lordcrunk47902 ай бұрын

    How many decades would it take to retrofit ALL buildings with a 100% passive shell? Can all buildings within a city be constructed so that the city is 100% passive? Compacted strawbale, ricebale or hempbale for a natural insulation. An off grid city. Passive structures must happen asap, no matter what planet we decide to occupy.

  • @MyKharli

    @MyKharli

    2 ай бұрын

    Then there's sea acidification , sustainable feeding your carbon neutral heated city , then there's forever rising sea levels , depleted water reserves , depleted soils , massively depleted environment , then there's all the nuclear and chemical waste sites near end of life cycle , climate migration , stupid world leaders , and probably worst of all an increasingly unstable climate that will destabilize food crops on multiple continents so nowhere to buy the shortfall in ones own country even if you can outbid the poor as we do at present .

  • @lightclawshadowmarsch8167
    @lightclawshadowmarsch81672 ай бұрын

    Its that u personally refuse to adapt like other life forms on earth if u can't adapt u go exstint.

  • @justmenotyou3151

    @justmenotyou3151

    2 ай бұрын

    😂😂😂

  • @Jc-ms5vv

    @Jc-ms5vv

    2 ай бұрын

    Can’t adapt to a dead planet

  • @nonearlylove
    @nonearlyloveАй бұрын

    The Natural Carbon Cycle takes place over very long periods of time. Apparently, we managed to speed things up. Now.. can we Adapt in time..? Yipes..!

  • @dylanthomasolseadog2803
    @dylanthomasolseadog28032 ай бұрын

    Bezos fund??? The guy that appropriated the name from the World's greatest forest for selling books!!!! Paper industry, married to aviation industry chick... now will lead us to salvation of Earth. ohhh, and the Amazon too!!!

  • @Perspectives105
    @Perspectives1052 ай бұрын

    I can't hear you

  • @EmeraldView

    @EmeraldView

    2 ай бұрын

    Get your fingers out of your ears. 🙃

  • @timothyhume3741
    @timothyhume37412 ай бұрын

    Paul it is way to late. And you still have not dealt with your audio volume. It is way too difficult to hear what you are saying. But cheers anyway.

  • @justmenotyou3151

    @justmenotyou3151

    2 ай бұрын

    I have no problem hearing whatever he is saying. It just doesn't make a lot of difference anymore.

  • @samuelsoroaster416
    @samuelsoroaster4162 ай бұрын

    Nobody can claim with certainty if tipping points have been irreversibly triggered or not...

  • @egoncorneliscallery9535

    @egoncorneliscallery9535

    2 ай бұрын

    Because they are entirely imagined and have nothing to do w reality. But you can of course make yourself believe it. Like what happens in any cult. Put money behind it et voila. Scientology anyone?!

  • @christopherleubner6633

    @christopherleubner6633

    2 ай бұрын

    Permafrost is rapidly melting, Greenland is becoming a lot more green, the Amazon rainforest is almost gone, gint chunks of the Antarctic ice sheet have broken off, and the ocean got so warm in spots that marine life literally cooked. It's here. Not 2050 or 2100, it's right now.

  • @justmenotyou3151

    @justmenotyou3151

    2 ай бұрын

    ​@egoncorneliscallery9535 I Imagine that if there were fewer people like you, we might have been able to do something about this issue. Alas, unfortunately, you exist. You talk of reality, but reality escapes you. It's funny and tragic at the same time.

  • @Muddslinger0415

    @Muddslinger0415

    2 ай бұрын

    @@christopherleubner6633the deniers will come up with anything

  • @samuelsoroaster416

    @samuelsoroaster416

    2 ай бұрын

    @@egoncorneliscallery9535 knowledge and belief are not the same. belief causes confusing. knowledge brings clarity.

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature
    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature2 ай бұрын

    Some of my comments have disappeared.

  • @satkinson5505

    @satkinson5505

    Ай бұрын

    Are you serious? That's never happened to me😅

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    Ай бұрын

    @@satkinson5505 3 of my comments have gone. I was writing about solar geoengineering as being our main hope now to stabilise temperature in a realistic timescale. I guess that some people did not like such realistic assesment.

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    Ай бұрын

    @@satkinson5505 It is quite concerning that rational discussion is not permitted. It is not possible to solve a problem unless free and open discussion is permitted. My comments were on topic, and they were not abusive of annyone. So they should not have been deleted. People are free to disagree if they want, and I welcome a rational discussion, but they should not just delete in order to "win" their argument.

  • @christopherleubner6633
    @christopherleubner66332 ай бұрын

    Most of the climate change mitigation efforts are more sbout cintrolling the power over the masses while profiting off of it than truly about action in mitigation. Miostly has to do with reducing population to contrllable numbers. As so much as to climate change, we are currenly in the first stage of nonlinear positive feedback loops that will run their course even if people completely dissappear tomorrow morning. The course should be complete by 2030, though could occur as soon as 2026. After that some areas will become dangerously hot and others exterme weather will be a new normal. Large parts of siberia will have a tempetate climate similar to the US while the plains states of the US will become semi arid. South America will have the loss of the Amazon rainforest. Europe would paradoxically haveva much cooler climate due to the shutdown of the AMOCC thermohaline current. Game Over. We had our chance.😢

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    2 ай бұрын

    If we cut CO2 at a rate that is more rapid than the gradual reduction in population (due to humane means such as educating girls, and use of contraceptives) then there will be a mass starvation on a scale never before experienced.

  • @tinadkuper
    @tinadkuper2 ай бұрын

    Tell Bezos to pay his fair share of taxes. That would help society immensely.

  • @Cyberpunk_Radio_PBS

    @Cyberpunk_Radio_PBS

    Ай бұрын

    Maybe if our tax dollars went toward fixing the climate that would make sense.. but right now its hundreds of BILLIONS to WAR efforts

  • @neverrl3379
    @neverrl33792 ай бұрын

    Sry that's hard to listen to. Instead of positive tipping points you could have just said that, if humans are able at some point to live a green life for the most part, this will help with the climate. This is a change in behaviour (which by the way doesn't really happen) and nothing more. This is not a fucking PHYSICAL CHAIN REACTION THAT SOOTHES THE CHAOS. It is just. A change. In human behaviour. This is not a tippping point.

  • @frankblangeard8865
    @frankblangeard88652 ай бұрын

    Too late. Just relax and enjoy life without listening to Cassandras.

  • @egoncorneliscallery9535

    @egoncorneliscallery9535

    2 ай бұрын

    Yeah but there's a difference. Kassandra was right!

  • @justmenotyou3151

    @justmenotyou3151

    2 ай бұрын

    Nope. I like listening to the Cassandra's. It's the sirens song. Beautiful and alluring, calling attention to our doom. It's in the background for all to hear, but few listen.

  • @user-co7qs7yq7n
    @user-co7qs7yq7n2 ай бұрын

    - We live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago - I have an explanation regarding the cause of the climate change and global warming, it is the travel of the universe to the deep past since May 10, 2010. Each day starting May 10, 2010 takes us one thousand years to the past of the universe. Today April 12, 2024 the state of our universe is the same as it was 5 million and 86 thousand years ago. On october 13, 2026 the state of our universe will be at the point 6 million years in the past. On june 04, 2051 the state of our universe will be at the point 15 million in the past. On june 28, 2092 the state of our universe will be at the point 30 million years in the past. On april 02, 2147 the state of our universe will be at the point 50 million years in the past. The result is that the universe is heading back to the point where it started and today we live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago. Mohamed BOUHAMIDA.

  • @EmeraldView

    @EmeraldView

    2 ай бұрын

    Uhhhh ..... What?

  • @DrSmooth2000

    @DrSmooth2000

    2 ай бұрын

    ​@@EmeraldViewwe're returning to the eocene 1000 years per day

  • @neverrl3379
    @neverrl33792 ай бұрын

    You guys really do your best in twisitng the meaning of words around. So you compare the physique of our planet on the one hand and human behaviour on the other hand, into the same categpry. Yet those two things are nowhere near the same. It's two whole different topics and you name them almost identical into positive and negative. Why must humans always lie? So that you can sleep better at night?

  • @heidenburg5445
    @heidenburg54452 ай бұрын

    I was riding my ebike behind a pickup truck and the white man driving was burning me like a jew.

  • @xyzct
    @xyzct2 ай бұрын

    We're in an ice age. This current interglacial period is only slightly warmer than the coldest Earth has ever been. CO2 levels are also near the lowest they been in Earth's history. And natural climate variability is HUGE. So exactly are you guys hyperventilating about? It's like you know nothing of Earth's history, and have never heard of Le Chatelier's principle. Just admit it: your problem is not with imagined change; your problem is that you are misanthropes.

  • @JimmyMarquardsen
    @JimmyMarquardsen2 ай бұрын

    Hello, I'm Paul Beckwith. Support me in my never-ending investigation of what's wrong with the climate. I offer no solutions, not even to the sound problem in my videos, but instead an endless list of depressing facts.

  • @PaulHBeckwith

    @PaulHBeckwith

    2 ай бұрын

    Give up your day job and become a comedian!!!

  • @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    @StabilisingGlobalTemperature

    2 ай бұрын

    Why the negativity? Paul is doing a great job highligting recent research. I have no problem with the audio.

  • @JimmyMarquardsen

    @JimmyMarquardsen

    2 ай бұрын

    @@PaulHBeckwith I don't have any job. I'm retired. And I have enough money to live well for the rest of my life. How about you, do you have a job? Other than making the rest of us depressed.

  • @JimmyMarquardsen

    @JimmyMarquardsen

    2 ай бұрын

    @@PaulHBeckwith Do you want to communicate with me at all or not dear Paul? Or will you just be offended that I'm close to the truth about you? I have an open heart and an open mind. What do you have?

  • @ReesCatOphuls

    @ReesCatOphuls

    2 ай бұрын

    At a minimum, Paul has 10,000's of people across the globe, appreciative of the information he discusses on YT.

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