Man, you and Reed said that the nose of the instability was the place to be 3 days ago. And now look where the target is. Great work as usual

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you!

@slayer18726

Ай бұрын

@Girldev that is not until Wednesday. You also only have a slight risk

@constance5894

Ай бұрын

Yeah, they are good!

@jking8408

Ай бұрын

Hopefully it doesn’t get too bad in extreme Northern Illinois,I’m right on the edge

@tdaddy7063

Ай бұрын

@@Girldevgenuine question can you read maps?

Every time I watch and listen to Trey...I am quickly reminded of how little I know...thanks for all you do brother

I'm in Manhattan Kansas and the air feels so soupy today. Loaded gun weather

Air feels very thick and humid here in central Kansas.

@LoneWolf343

Ай бұрын

Dewpoints are in the low 30s, high 20s in the very western part of the state. Really strong dryline coming through.

@ThistleKing

Ай бұрын

⁠@@LoneWolf343 dew point up to 65 surface temp 80 where I am. Lots of cloud cover though

I'm a little NW of Wichita and its got a funky feel outside today for sure. Thanks for the update!

Thanks Trey. So glad I clicked the notification bell. Great job.

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you!

Thanks Trey! My go to for the specifics

Just as you say that, HRRR very much catching onto that SW KS initiation!

A great forecast breakdown as always!

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you!

Thanks Trey

Here in okc feels like a severe weather day: 72° temp, 67° dew point making it feel sticky out i heard our timeline is 1am-7am which is kinda dangerous

i think the words "i can't wait for the convective chronicles video about this" left my mouth more than once. i always feel like i learn a lot watching your videos. :) thanks, trey!

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you!!

In omaha, and my parents are a little south of des moines so hoping to see some stuff from afar but not on top of us 🤞

Hopefully, this will hold off until i get off work tomorrow 😩. I hate to miss an almost slam dunk chase opportunity. I'm hoping anything that drops stays super rural and doesn't bother anyone. No more mass-casualty events at St Luke's, please! 😳 Edit: Thanks Trey, awesome discussion! Brilliant as usual.😊

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you! I agree; open field tornadoes are the best tornadoes!

Let's go! Thanks Trey!

Trey always coming in with the solid forecast.

Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on this event and I got a feeling this is the one that's going to break the long streak of difficult forecast and 10% hatched Risk not producing and or doing well

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you! I agree

@LeviW133

Ай бұрын

Glad we can agree and your welcome and also SPC added a tiny enhanced risk Virginia did you see that yet ???​@@ConvectiveChronicles

Im i Alva, Oklahoma...only 15 miles from the kansas border. Feeling every bit of heavy atmosphere!

Thank you Trey for being so informative. Beyond the forecasting, I learned a few new weather things from you.. Subscribed :o)

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you so much!

Thanks for doing these. I usually read the discussion on the SPC outlook when I'm in an area of concern, but it doesn't go nearly as in depth. I'm just east of DSM so I'll be watching tomorrow

As expected this is gonna be the significant event that was hinting a few days ago. Man the hail is gonna be nuts and the tornado risk is gonna be pretty much just a good I think. These brrroooad 5% usually over-perform well but Tuesday.....that's the day to really eye on. Actually I think both days will be pretty good tornado producers overall. I get models were kind of being strange on this but the dew points are well in place for something to go pretty substantial in KS tonight and NE. Pretty sure we will see a decent tornado outbreak on both days.....actually even Wednesday is trending to be a pretty hot day for all hazards again in the OH River Valley. This truly is trending to be an unreal April-June. It's actually amazing how much discrete potential the models are now showing next 2 days. This has actually he best chance so far to see very strong and powerful tornadoes so far and honestly....all the boxes are in place for it. I will also not be surprised is this ceiling for today is a poor man's April 2012.

First! Thanks for this Trey!

Grey start here in SE OK. Glad I watered yesterday...looking like my rain may not even make it.

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Yeah, the cloud cover over OK may stifle things until the Pacific front takes over later tonight.

Reminds me a lot of 4/19/23 with the last minute model initiation

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Agreed! Also seeing a lot of 5-17-19 in today’s setup.

@PartlyDeaf

Ай бұрын

How much do the HRRR and other models use analogs like the dates you have mentioned when they are generating a new run?

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

@@PartlyDeaf I don't really think analogs are part of the model schemes themselves, but they can spit out analogs as they're running (e.g. the Sounding Analog on the model soundings)

It's been quite disappointing the last couple of days when it comes to severe weather. (besides the severe weather day in Louisiana) Let's just hope that it will be a bit more 'interesting' this time. Thanks for the discussion Trey!

Here in kennedale tx at 10:40am central the temp is 72, dewpoint is 68, and wind 10mph from the sse

Ugh I’m sick of nocturnal tornadoes

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Yeah, there have been a lot this year

71.5F/62DP @ 1027L at my house in far NW KCK. It can certainly be felt, but does seem thin.

thank you for the in depth analysis! Living in grand island in the most unsafe type of makeshift home (you can probably guess) makes me quite nervous but this definitely helps to understand!

@kristinafulton5334

Ай бұрын

Do you have a safe place if things get bad?

@ryguy9664

Ай бұрын

@@kristinafulton5334 yep will be staying somewhere else tonight haha

Trey Here!

Your videos are always so awesome! Not sure about this one. My target area is Eastern IA/Western IL. I am a little apprehensive about chasing given that I chased the mod risk area South Indy into Ohio a little bit ago. That was a bust. I always do my own forecasting but didn't for that one and trusted the models. Also, forecast hodographs aren't very impressive.

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you! Yeah, I think there are a lot of issues with the setup: morning convection, early initiation, etc. Probably will be a few tornadoes but I don’t see a widespread event.

I'm in northern Oklahoma. After twenty years living in this state, I've learned to pay attention to how the air feels. It's got the feel to it today and I haven't felt that in a long time.

@darrencook731

Ай бұрын

Got any leaves on your trees? We always get antsy when the leaves appear to turn upside down up here in Ohio.

@pixiwix

Ай бұрын

@@darrencook731 my grandmother always said to watch for the leaves turning inside out! I've seen that be right more often than not 🤎

Hey, I watched through the video. Most of it is far over my head. In the HRRR on Tuesday, there seems to be a quick and strong spin up near Little Rock, AR. Do you think that will be accurate? I've got interpreters going home around that time and I've been trying to decide if we need to let them go home early.

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

I wouldn’t put too much stock in the HRRR more than a few hours away from an event. Still, be prepared for scattered severe storms with an all hazards risk.

4000 surface cape north central Kansas

Hey Trey, considering the busy weather patterns lately I don't expect you to do this atm but would you be able to cover European tornadoes? Like June 24, 2021 in Czechia

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

I’ve been asked about doing international events before; the problem is that I don’t know of a data archive that would have all the necessary data. If you have any leads, let me know, and we can start doing some international case studies!

@kevinjoyce285

Ай бұрын

​@@ConvectiveChroniclesDidn't get notified of your response, but yeah I was thinking about where you will get the data. European events are interesting, and I'd love to see them done but there's a lack of data, radar with velocity or cc in most worldwide areas. I will try my best to find leads, but historical data I'm not really sure if I can despite my research skills. I'll do a bit of searching soon

3000 surface cape in Kansas and Nebraska

Kind figured they move north with this and 3000 cape it might pop off I think more tomorrow. They also updated enhanced for Virginia area no tornado threat tho

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Yeah, it’s for damaging winds out there

In your last video you made a comparison to the 2007 Greensburg supercell. In which any tornadoes that may be discrete before nocturnal cooling could become significant. What are the chances of that occurring since we’re closer to storm initiation?

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Chances have increased since the last video. Obviously, Greensburg is an incredibly high end event, so it’s unlikely that anything like that happens, but be prepared regardless.

@lordlobster3793

Ай бұрын

@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks for the reply. Are there any similar events to todays that occurred during any of the analog years you highlighted?

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

@@lordlobster3793 Yesterday was unique; I can't really think of any specific analogs off the top of my head

How about a squall line in northern Ohio on Wednesday?

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Too early to know for sure; we’ll know more as we see Tuesday play out

Just 3500 surface cap in Kansas….500 Jules in a hour ? Bad or good ?

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

That is good for maintaining the severe threat

Yikes. Close friends in Concordia KS. I don’t like the look of this.

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Yeah, hopefully they’re prepared

Moderate for tuesday?

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Seems unlikely given concerns over morning convection, destabilization, and storm mode, but it’s not off the table

When Trey, drops a weather video 🎉

Dayton Ohio for Thursday-weekend, any ideas what it might be? I know that's a long way off. We have a big group of kids who will be raveling there, so just checking to see. Keep up the great work! :-)

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Thank you! Dayton is not currently in a risk but it could be at some point, especially for Wednesday. Would mainly be a large hail and wind risk.

@BluieBeth

Ай бұрын

@@ConvectiveChronicles You/re the best! Thank you!

🎉

Yeah Trey, nothing happening

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Event is just getting started; the environment will only get more favorable from here

@Sciencetor728

Ай бұрын

@@ConvectiveChronicles ok gotta stay awake, whiskey and baseball and tornadoes

@Sciencetor728

Ай бұрын

@@ConvectiveChronicles and why is that ?

Trey to the NAM: I’m just not buying it 🧐 Is it my imagination or have nighttime events predominated so far this season? Frustrating for chasers and not great from a public safety standpoint.

@ConvectiveChronicles

Ай бұрын

Yeah, sometimes that trend of nocturnal events dominates for awhile…hopefully we’ll get away from these nighttime events soon.

Lord please let this severe weather pass!! I decree and declare no bad weather! No deaths no harm no loss in the name of Jesus!! It will be well!!! I declare it done!!! Amen ✝️🙏‼️‼️‼️

@JesusLovesAll-nb2hv

Ай бұрын

Repent of your sins and turn to Jesus Christ today! He is returning soon! REPENT REPENT REPENT ✝️‼️ Jesus LOVES you all! HALLELUJAH‼️ 🙏