Thanks for having me on John. I look forward to chatting again as the consolidation continues.

@PNWUte

Ай бұрын

Go Gauchos! Your talk was informative AF

@robertbraden4454

Ай бұрын

You are right, the trend is toward a college super league. The problem is a super league already exists, and the college super league can't out compete the NFL in a fight for viewers. What made college football unique is the passion of the fans. The passion is what ESPN and FOX are killing with the consolidation of CFB.

14:24 It should be also noted, many FBS schools also rely on additional student fees to paid into fund athletic department budgets.

This is the first and best analysis of what's actually happening in regards to the financial component. Much appreciated!

The guest is validating all my fears. CFB, RIP.

@adamwade4764

Ай бұрын

I live near the coast in the south, so when CFB RIP I'll have more time on Saturdays to go to the Beach!!!!! Fall is a great time for the Beach down here!

Brilliant analysis - many thanks for this!

I am one of those alums that are witnessing the end of college athletics as we knew it. After 36 years of attending football games with my son I am done and I refuse to donate to collectives to ‘bribe’ athletes to come to my school only to be outbid next year. All done with athletic endeavors, sheesh now I guess I have to spend more time with my wife.

We need more of this type of analysis entering into the conversation. Too many look at the past and recent success as the key metrics rolling forward. It is this type of analysis that suggests the SEC will take NCSU and VT. These are growing schools with plans to grow with increasing selectivity. Both schools invested heavily in research facilities. Both doing $600+ million today. The synergy these schools have to produce 10k graduates a year for the foreseeable future will continue. This builds that connection spoken of and the SEC's geographic lock could shut all others out as CFB collapses in other parts of the country.

Great discussion guys. I've been telling friends for awhile that the program I love (Miami) is in major trouble, if they don't get into one of those super conferences. I simply can't see how anyone outside those conferences will be able to financially compete with the resources those programs will have

VERY GOOD analysis. He basically mimicked what I have been thinking for at least the last decade....or more.

I can see these smaller schools dropping sports altogether.

@MrJara1018

Ай бұрын

They can just be schools . Teach stuff , study things, it’s cool.

@zplapplap

Ай бұрын

Smaller schools often sponsor more sports and use the athletics program to entice students from families willing to pay the sticker price to attend. It’s the D3 model. Will the bottom of D1 retreat to this model? We’ll see. I’m inclined to think so, at least for those schools with smaller undergraduate enrollment.

@chrisacer6605

Ай бұрын

@@MrJara1018 Sure, and they can lose enrollment too because a big part of the college experience is now missing. That's what will happen.

@chrisacer6605

Ай бұрын

@@zplapplap They'll have to if they want to keep playing, but it will still hurt them. Athletic departments are a source of marketing and recruitment so when a school is relegated out of major college football a lot of potential students will go elsewhere.

@haroldflashman4687

Ай бұрын

These schools should never have been in the athletics business to begin with.

The social issues also turned people off and they quit watching. That happened at all levels, pro and college.

For me, Im checking out if my school of choice is left out. Whats the point? I'll just follow NFL more. I dont need/want to follow the 2 conference G-league.

@unc0mm0n2

Ай бұрын

Ok. I'm sure we'll miss you.

@johnfaris5376

Ай бұрын

Many will follow suit

No mention of the growing sports betting market that could stabilize TV viewership to offset dropping University enrollment.

I truly think the G5 and smaller conferences could write their own rules, have their own playoff, and have their own title to pursue. Instead you are letting yourself end up getting ONE playoff spot. What are the chances a G5 program wins THREE games (or is it four?)? I don't hate the smaller programs. I love college football. I want yo see those programs have something that's theirs.

@haroldflashman4687

Ай бұрын

ESPN offered the G5 their own playoff a few years ago, the G5 turned it down!

Well this adds on the worry about the future of college football for me

I always said when I started watching and following college football 55 years ago it was more akin to the high school game. Regional rivalries meant something, money not so much. Now it clearly looks more like pro football than high school. A lot of rivalries will die on the vine. The college athlete has cut his own throat. Most of the smaller schools can't afford to pay the student athletes a ton of money. It's like the fast food industry here in California, wages have skyrocketed and so have the closings.

14:00 I know people who watch college football and never went to college. Moreover, if your dream is to play professional sports (not just football), that's where you're going. Just like the analyst mentions the G-league, nobody watches that so these very same players will go the NCAA route to increase visibility and draft eligibility.

@MichaelSmith-xb5cp

Ай бұрын

Yes there are millions of watchers, but in the internet age, those are increasingly just highlight fans who watch plays in brief snippets, but these are not paying fans and no one is really invested unless its a pro sports desert in their locale, and even then interest is on the wane.

It is about Covid and a horrible economy. That is why attendance is down plus lots of games streamed and people that did watch on cable don’t now because of having to pay to watch. Internet stability isn’t good in many areas and cell service becomes strained when so many on their phones. When your conference no longer local only the well to do can afford to travel to the games.

My problem with this entire commentary is that it only became a problem when the PAC12, ACC and BIG 12 were affected. B.S. - the G5 has been living with being excluded from revenue opportunities, and forced out of competition, operating on shoestring budgets, for decades. This sport should have expanded the CFP over a decade ago and given autobids to each conference including the G5. That would have promoted the most viability and health for CFB for the long term. This would have prevented / counteracted the consolidation forces that are destroying the game today and are discussed in this video. I have been talking about this for going on 12 years now. It wasn't hard to see coming. Instead, Greed won. The sport is doomed. The fans will walk away.

John: College football will be fine. Schools in the south and Midwest have great attendance. As for the Northeast, College football has never been big in the Northeast. Think Rutgers compared to the Yankees and BC compared to the Red Sox being obvious examples. As for California, the issues there are related to economics not the Rams. Very similar to the problems facing hockey in Canada. The cost of equipment, travel etc ( plus families dealing with issues such as gas prices, housing and taxes) and competing against areas where the cost is lower.

@kimcoulter806

Ай бұрын

So your supposition is based on a belief that it’s cheaper to live in the NE compared to the rest of the country? Lmao West Coast I’ll buy… but it’s damn sure no cheaper with the same level of crime rampant in NE cities run by libs.

There is always fear mongering when there is change. As a former collegiate athlete screw the NCAA organization and them wanting to determine who can benefit off the players labor.

another factor in California, and the North East, these areas are increasingly populated by immigrants, mostly from Asia, India, and Central America, and for those people American Football, High School and College sports aren't a big deal. I agree with you, and you are the 1st person on youtube who is making the same point I thought of is that the colleges face a demographic crunch- have you noticed since the Covid birth rate have cratered. All the Universities that have spent hundreds of millions building lavish stadium, 5 Star Hotel Dormitories, Taj Mahal on campus and Lazy Rivers are going to find themselves in a crunch in a few years. You also don't point out that at every college, the sports team are heavily subsidized by Student Fees ($4000 a year at Coastal Carolina per my understand). Online learning will also make a lot of colleges redundant. There is a crash coming. FASTER PLEASE

It's a travesty that college football has gotten to this point. At the end of the day football is an extracurricular activity just like band or cheerleading. Maybe paying players a certain amount is warranted but they already get a free education out of it which is totally being devalued in this new model. And what happens when 18-22 year old kids with no money management experience are suddenly given incredibly large sums of money? We're going to have a huge number of 25 year old burnouts and drug addicts who burned through all the money and are washed up at 25 with no college degree -- that's almost a fact when you look at what happens to child stars who's career ends when they become adults. Is that really a good thing for the athletes? In addition the smaller schools are going to have to drop sports altogether because there's no way they can be competitive in this environment. Then there are all the alienated fans from the schools who are left out whether it's the ACC and Big 12 who are relegated to feeder programs for the Big Ten and SEC, or the G5 who make 1/10th the money of the ACC and Big 12. Who exactly is this new model beneficial to? The football "student" athletes? No. The fans? Maybe 20% of them. The schools? Maybe 10% of them. The student athletes in other sports who are now having to travel cross country and/or have to come to the reality of their non-rev sport being dropped? No. The old white men at the networks and P4 conference commissioners? YES! Looking ahead 10-15 years after so many fans who made college football what it is today are alienated will there still be this much money? I doubt it; once those fans realize their schools are no longer really part of it they aren't going to religiously tune in to watch the same SEC and Big Ten games. I'm sure those games will still get good ratings but not like they do now when everyone feels like they have a stake in it. College Football is going to become the next NHL (which became permanently damaged after one too many strikes) and be a shell of it's former self.

@billsimpson6136

Ай бұрын

@@NickAtNightOKC I did. You should too, you might learn something you can use to maybe sound intelligent for a change.

@jeffmorgan9337

Ай бұрын

Agreed

@howardbreauxii811

Ай бұрын

Agree wholeheartedly. All the money college football brings in today is because of the way it's been structured most of the last 100 years. Now they are starting to relegate and exclude schools which also excludes and alienates a ton of fans who bring ratings. The way things are headed college football is going to be far less compelling. Part of the reason it got so big was because there is a lot of charm seeing players play so hard for their schools and for the love of the game. But now the athletes are incentivized to be in it for themselves and to have no loyalty to their schools. When you take out the charm and that big group of fans you've taken out the heart of the game. An NFL-lite is going to have ratings like an NFL-lite.

@pwho405

Ай бұрын

Total B.S

@roncoughman6221

Ай бұрын

@@pwho405 If you think it's BS then you're ignorant about college football history. He's spot on.

Sadly, the net result of consolidation & NIL will be fewer sports offered by universities and fewer kids being able to afford a college education. We are literally watching the golden goose be slaughtered.

NLI has changed college Football and College Football realignment ripple effect across College Football, Big East Football defunct and PAC 12 Defunct next The ACC, Big Ten and SEC have benefits from College Football realignment, back in 2011 University Of Maryland leaving the ACC Big Ten Conference University Of Maryland President and AD probably made a smart decision, in 2014 University Of Maryland joined The Big Ten Conference, i love watching The Big Ten Conference games, Big 12 Conference College Football realignment, Pittsburgh Of University and Of University Louisville , FSU , Clemson OF University, University Of North Carolina and North Carolina State University and University Of Miami Florida and Duke Of University Big 12 Conference will be first Conference with 25 teams and North division and East division and West division and South division using a pod system, by next decade The Big 12 Conference will be third strongest college Football conference , ACC gone ESPN and Fox Sports, CBS sports, The Group Of 5 or 4 Need to step run the table make it into College Football playoffs win games like Boise State University.

It's called change. Nobody likes it. It's a constant. Things will work out. I don't worry about it.

Nick makes a great comparisons of English soccer to College Football. A lot of people like me(Santa Ana) and Nick from Orange County can speak to this because top clubs from Europe recruit from OC. But Nick's take on football in California becoming non-existent is a blind statement. A few weeks ago attended a passing league and 5 on 5 tournament in Irvine a couple of weeks ago. Hundreds of kids participating and fields of football skirmishes. I also have my own linemen workout on Sundays in the off season, that has been growing for the last couple of years. Now I know OCJAAF is no more, but what the Trinity League(Mater Dei, St John Bosco, etc) schools have been cooking is the most superior youth league in the whole United States. Maybe Nick is confused because the cost of living and feminize parents preventing their children to participate. Because football people in Southern California will find a way, it's just harder to find because of how big everything is compared to any spot in the country. NICK TURN UP MAN!!!!!!

Ohio State vs Michigan 2023 had 19.1 million viewers. The big 10 is doing fine. They’ll get even more viewership with the west coast additions.

@RuthFeldstein-ph1oo

Ай бұрын

Yes, the Big 10 and Ohio State/Michigan is doing better than ever. But the problem is that as Fox spends more money on the Big 10, they will be spending less money on the Big 12 and other non-P2 conferences.

@kevingray3690

Ай бұрын

@@RuthFeldstein-ph1oo good point

We are at the point where schools no longer have to use boosters to bypass the system and "buy" players, so you could conceivably have a talented quarterback who makes enough money playing in college that he can retire when he graduates or leaves, especially if he handles the bidding process properly. I think the financial costs are going to weed out programs that either cannot afford to come up with the massive sums of money needed to buy players, or where donors are going to balk at funding player buyouts. If I am a rich donor looking at giving 20 million to my school, am I going to want this funding a library or building with my name on it, or will I be satisfied with paying the fees needed to help field one season of the football team? Let's throw in expectations and results into the mix. If I am supporting a team that went 5 - 6 - 0 and missed out on a bowl game, I am probably going to expect better results if I am contributing to the $20 million needed to buy players. If we end up in the same place record wise because all the other schools are also spending $20 million or more, is that going to make me want to write a bigger check next year, or is it going to dampen my willingness to donate anything at all?

It won’t be 20 teams. It might be 32, though. There will always be people who want to brag that their university runs a better pro team than someone else’s.

The future is what we don't know and the past is what we kind of know. The analyst on the video is looking downstream and through observation of the past is able to predict the direction ahead. He might not get the details 100%, but he will get the part right on the financial impact to college sports programs. Near the end he hit a point most are missing, depopulation. If it were not for legal and illegal immigration the U.S. population would be shrinking. Most of those immigrants are soccer fans. Most are not going to head to Harvard anytime soon. The U.S. birthrate is 1.7 and it take a rate of 2.2 to maintain the population. When we look around the country some states have two or more FBS football programs and others none. If your state population is below 5 million it really can't support two programs under the new economics. When you look at the ACC and Big XII members there are a number of states below 5M with two plus programs. Kansas, Iowa, Utah, and Oklahoma are examples. While most ACC schools are in states with 5M+ you may find three teams trying to compete at the FBS level. Oklahoma and Iowa have a program in the P2. Utah and Kansas do not. There could be some winnowing there.

Football needs a salary cap for the athletes is across the board. That's the only way it's going to survive. Otherwise it'll become very dull and boring seeing the same teams went over and over again. They might be the same. They might be 7 or 18s but it'll be the same 7 or 18s no matter what. Nobody likes that

What is going to happen to the NFL when the talent pool coming out of college shrinks so much that teams have a hard time filling out their rosters, especially with the gap between rookie scale quarterbacks and prime contract ones widening by the year? I really think that football can’t even see its own decline coming. I have four nephews and they are all soccer players and fans that don’t even like football, and I’m pretty sure most of their friends are the same way. If competitive balance in the NFL is destroyed by how hard it is to surround a prime QB with talent and how hard it is to win without one, I have a really hard time seeing how it’s going to win those young people over to the sport. I could see the day in about 20 years time where the NFL is third in popularity behind soccer and the NBA.

@victorstillwell9893

Ай бұрын

Yes, sir. I've been thinking the same thing.

@chrisacer6605

Ай бұрын

Why would the talent pool shrink? The players might not leave a year early like they currently do but they'll still be there.

@terranceramirez4816

Ай бұрын

@@chrisacer6605 not if there’s a shrinkage of viable teams down to 20 and a lot of the other programs start dropping the sport

@MichaelSmith-xb5cp

Ай бұрын

​@@terranceramirez4816 The owners were already vigorously against expansion to 32 teams for this very reason...totally unsustainable.

He's not wrong but this bull has a long way to run.

Unless the school is in some isolated pro sports desert(which many used to be by design of isolating young adults from familial and other influences, but less so in modern times due to sprawl), the bulk of attending fans for a school, are students, friends family, and undergrad alumi. That is why college football as a whole is contracting. The college enrollment of nstive born Americans is contracting way more than they are letting on, and there is an backfill of foreign alien students who have zero cultural attachments to American 🏈, plus the majority have body frames that would fail to qualify for a D3 team. Everything you see occurring today is in preparation for contraction down to about 30 schools in D1 that will come much faster than anyone realizes. It will turn into a genetic lottery like NBA, and D1 will become a true NFL D-league.... only they'll try and have taxpayers foot the bill for the infrastructure. The NFL will also contract with the demographic shift, 32 pro teams is non sustainable.

Fcs is fine. Why the doom and gloom for f.b.s.

You old people make me laugh you do not see how the market is changing all these companies need to spend lots of money to put more value on their streaming apps. This is the same thing that Fox did back in the 80s with their football deal they spend a lot of money to put more value on Fox and it succeeded and that’s exactly what all the streaming companies are going to put more value on their college football conference not less teams

@MichaelSmith-xb5cp

Ай бұрын

The difference is, that was pro sports, colleges are supported by taxpayers and alumni donors....who pays that? Thats right, old people, that vote with ballots, and wallets, and feet.

@alexa7736

Ай бұрын

@@MichaelSmith-xb5cp it’s so sad that you owe people don’t know how society has changed. We don’t care about the teams we care about the player. We will stick with a player from high school all the way through college and into the pros and that’s what a lot of these corporations already see with the younger generation, they don’t care about you old people anymore they focus on generation Z and Alpha

I'm glad he brought up depopulation. I believe this phenomena will have a profound impact on the future of the economy as a whole and the economics of college football will share this fate. Less people means less students, fans and money to go around!

Demographic shifts are what's hurting college football. Though black people are only 12% of the population, they represent 53% of the NFL. For the NCAA, that means most high recruits live in the South. The only place black people can afford. USC and the PAC 12 suck because black players can't afford to live in the West anymore. When black people lived everywhere, the sport was better represented, which generated more interest. The SEC wins all the the time, which makes it boring for the rest of the country. But that's where all the talent is.

If the guest is right and it turns into a 20 team super league.... Then college football will be dead. There will be so many regions/states checking out entirely. Greed will have killed the game.

Too much doomsday. I highly doubt teams not in the "Big 2" won't have a program.

College football will be just fine. A bunch of small schools having a harder time competing won’t hurt it at all!

I think Bryce Harper said it best. Capitalism on steroids is a clown economic system, bro.

Loser Guest explains to Loser Host what a Loser the L-12, and ACC are...waste of 20 minutes!

How dare the SEC and B1G take away “share” from other schools. Don’t the SEC/B1G know that they owe it to the other schools?

I don't trust "financial analysts": those are the type of people that cause recessions.

College football is massively profitable. He has no idea how it works. All financial reporting is fraudulent.

I used to love college football. As it stands now, good riddance when it fails. It's become a joke.

@adamwade4764

Ай бұрын

Me 2