Check out Private Internet Access here www.piavpn.com/MoneyMacro

@jasperlawrence5361

Жыл бұрын

What about the cut to OPEC production equal to 2% of global consumption of oil?

@axelnils

Жыл бұрын

11:20 Sweden isn’t part of the eurozone

@consumer5631

Жыл бұрын

do a US video

@C05597641

Жыл бұрын

I think the recession in Ireland will be mild and house prices will be stable. All the young in ireland want a big recession (but they keep their job) and house prices fall. Life just doesn't work out like that.

@alexd832

Жыл бұрын

At 10.40 you put the apocalyptic scenario at 45% not 15% was it a video error

Whatever scenario ends up happening, it's going to increase political tensions a lot in the long term. Regular people are sick of recessions and being asked to make personal sacrifices every time they happen.

@viktor8928

Жыл бұрын

that's what putin wants

@EatMyShortsAU

Жыл бұрын

Come on man, be a team player Credit Suisse is "too big to fail" and the UK richest people need tax cuts man. Who cares if poor people can't afford things like food, petrol and heating..

@WitchMedusa

Жыл бұрын

Then take stop complaining & take action for yourself loser. Don't like central bank policies? Okay use gold, silver, or heck maybe your a tech savvy person & use an anonymous crypto like Monero. Lots of people talk a big game, but everyone is too weak & pathetic to actually do anything themselves. Maybe you'll prove me wrong.

@MrYeahbuddah

Жыл бұрын

A recession/market correction happens every 7 to 10 years on average

@thesuperflexibleflyingtaoi8866

Жыл бұрын

@@MrYeahbuddah would be ok if the economical upturn prior to market correction would benefit the average joe and not the one in position of lending mass amounts of money for negative interest and just do carry trades on housing etc. Prior to this recession the average joe already got less for his money, this time the recession will heat some heads and to be fair: i hope it escalates a bit so that rich people understand that they are not invulnerable and making money isnt the most important thing but rather doing economics with some common sense for the normal person.

I like this guy's channel. The economist talking in the background is quite good too.

@MoneyMacro

Жыл бұрын

🐱

@wolfe.922

Жыл бұрын

😅

Talking about an economic apocalypse while having a cat chilling in front of you is the most comforting thing to see.

@durimuramon1620

Жыл бұрын

You mean dog?

@EASY_Scenarios

Жыл бұрын

@@durimuramon1620 no he means cat can you read mate

@HotSzejk

Жыл бұрын

Couldn't agree more

@ThomasMullaly-do9lz

3 ай бұрын

What brought you comfort? Was it knowing you have something to eat if you couldn't buy food?

@ThomasMullaly-do9lz

3 ай бұрын

Who knew all the farmers would start rioting a year later...

Thank goodness that we live in such easy, comfortable times that we can consider a 4% drop in spending "apocalyptic."

@MoneyMacro

Жыл бұрын

Fair point. But, I don't think that pain will necessarily be evenly distributed. So, it could be much worse for some (e.g. Europe's peripheral economies).

@captainalex157

Жыл бұрын

exactly, as long as i can put food on the table and heat my home, i wouldnt even call it severe. A temporary setback.

@cookingonthego9422

Жыл бұрын

Lovely :D

@petercowling6769

Жыл бұрын

@@MoneyMacro we've seen some interest in governments trying to avoid it, but the pain will be felt most by the poorest. those spending 100% of what they earn every month, or more, are disproportionately affected by any percentage loss. Anyone who believes otherwise should try compounding very small percentages.

@anon6350

Жыл бұрын

lmao meanwhile in the 3rd world food prices going up by double is a normal daily occurrence

„A possible second Eurozone crisis“ Greece: „I‘m in danger.“

@SirBalageG

Жыл бұрын

If we survive this then the eurozone is officially immortal

@rohitroll2119

Жыл бұрын

Chuckles

@tellmey1

Жыл бұрын

no. germany isn't governed by ice cold conservative Merkel anymore and will happily safe Greece once more.

@Zjefke86

Жыл бұрын

@@SirBalageG *undead. You can't kill what's already dead.

"All economists agree that europe is going to recession" the prime minister of Portugal: "EVERYTHING IS GREAT ! THE ECONOMY IS BOOMING! YOU GET A SUBSIDY! YOU GET A SUBSIDY! EVERYBODY GETS A SUBSIDYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY! _ah, and we are going to raise taxes again, cutting pensions and your salaries are being cut by inflation, but we are not PSD_ "

@user-js7ud9du2y

Жыл бұрын

ECONOMY IS BOOMING

@EatMyShortsAU

Жыл бұрын

To be fair if the Prime Minister of Portugal said "our economy is F*cked, take all your money out of the banks" that would not do well for the economy. I think there needs to be a more balanced message between the two though.

@joefer5360

Жыл бұрын

@@EatMyShortsAU This is one of those things that doesn't have the benefit of having an in between to work with. We're either fukted or not.

@EatMyShortsAU

Жыл бұрын

@@joefer5360 Are you from Portugal and things bad there, in which not being covered by the global media?

@joefer5360

Жыл бұрын

@@EatMyShortsAU No. USA. These Central Bank actions are all mirrored. It's just a charade being played out having one bank raising rates with another not and it's country's politicans rambling on about "everything is fine people, nothing to be concerned about."

I feel that the particular bad luck europe had this summer with the weather is never mentioned enough. On top of all the problems we already face/faced there was a severe drought during the summer, which reduced poweroutput of hydroelectric stations by around 30% and led to even higher foodprices, since many crops failed. Maybe 2023 will be as bad, hopefully it will be better, which could ease inflation a little bit

@reneecassels

Жыл бұрын

“Bad luck” implies that it’s a mystery how those events happen. Current weather and climate conditions are as a direct result of the last 200 years of policy, politics, growth and greed. The chickens are home to roost.

@aaroneberle2488

Жыл бұрын

@@reneecassels but it is bad luck though. That the draughts would come exactly this summer has nothing to do with climate change. Climate change causes these events to occur more often, but the timing itself is just bad luck. Or Murphys law, whatever you want to call it.

@ImperativeGames

Жыл бұрын

Because it was just an ordinary summer. Every summer output of hydroelectric stations fall. But politicians would prefer to blame everything else, including "it's because it's hot in summer", but not themselves.

@demoniack81

Жыл бұрын

@@ImperativeGames No, it was absolutely not "an ordinary summer". It was the worst drought in the last 500 years. The Po river here in Italy was at the lowest levels ever recorded.

@Anna1ingeborg

Жыл бұрын

This is so crazy. At the Same time the resteraunt near me is throwing an amount of food away every weekend, that is so mich that about 8 food sharers need to pick it up.

A lot of folks have been going on about a December rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth these festive season, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?

@tatianastarcic

Жыл бұрын

@Craig Daniels Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.

@maiadazz

Жыл бұрын

@@tatianastarcic True, we’re only just an information away from amassing wealth, I know a lot of folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present market, could this coach that guides yo help?

@maiadazz

Жыл бұрын

@@tatianastarcic Found her, I wrote her an email and scheduled a call, hopefully she responds, I plan to start 2023 on a woodnote financially.

Now my 4 years daughter is into economics thanks to that cat 😺

@sustaingainz7856

Жыл бұрын

wholesome

Thank you for having proper format. You have the results upfront and explained why. Rather than waiting until the end like most KZread videos.

This channel is such a nice source of information, learning so much. Groetjes uit België!

@my_master55

Жыл бұрын

@Tech Chill bro, the average joe watching YT barely has finished a high school, it's mass-media content where everything must be simple :)

The optimistic scenario ignores how much more expensive it is to transport LNG than import natural gas via pipeline.

@sisyphusvasilias3943

Жыл бұрын

and the fact that USA will exploit the opportunity to charge as much as they can

@dawnfire82

Жыл бұрын

@@sisyphusvasilias3943 ...you mean charge market prices? They could always just not pay and go without.

17% of ECB employees are Italian, almost 1 in 5, and that's counting service staff that's mostly German. That's all you need to know to believe the apocalyptic scenario is basically impossible. From what I can see, the Dutch leaving the Euro because the ECB won't stop buying Italian bonds is more likely than them stopping the purchase of Italian debt.

@doords

Жыл бұрын

Then which european countries do you think will be in trouble

@emperortomoto

Жыл бұрын

Here to be fair we have also to consider that most of the major italian company included energy giant as ENI and Fiat pay taxes in the Nederlands.

@mrmrmrcaf7801

Жыл бұрын

@@doords UK

Well if the IMF predicts it, you know one thing for sure, that will be the most unlikely scenario considering their track record for predictions.

Gas prices have dropped significantly in the last few days, as EU gas reserves are almost full to capacity. The problem will present itself again next year probably, but it's hard to tell what will happen. Maybe the plans to become less and less dependent on fossil fuels will start to come to fruition. The war in Ukraine made most countries step two feet on the pedal in their energy transition programs, in a bid to deny Russia's leverage (which is already weakened by an unusually warm autumn)

@VIT-ey8wo

Жыл бұрын

Those gas reserves are usually used to compensate days with peak consumption rates. Prior to the conflict, the main supply of gas still came from pipes. On their own, those reserves will probably last somwhere around a month or two. Once there is no gas left, demand will go up and so will the prices. And buying LNG at such high prices is quite harmful for the european economy. Some european companies are already thinking about relocating production lines, which may result in massive layouts. So there isn't really much room for optimism in the current situation.

@b.s.1142

Жыл бұрын

Yeah non of this happened

Great video, i really appreciate your analytical and critical work. Thank you for sharing :)

"I'm just commenting for the KZread algorithm" - Marshawn Lynch

@ascra1693

Жыл бұрын

Don't do it.. fight the AI overlords

@tomarmstrong1297

Жыл бұрын

Same.

@memyselfandi9365

Жыл бұрын

A rugby player arrested for drink driving? Don't get it...

There are few KZread "economists" I listen to, but I listen to you. Let's pray we all live thru it healthy and unscathed

@warmaster2817

Жыл бұрын

Any recommendations?

I'm so happy that you're back, I love your videos because it's simple & informative! I also love your cat :) Thank you for uploading!

Love this video, and happy to have found your channel! I love listening and better understanding the upcoming financial crisis, but most of the KZreadrs I was following when i lived in Israel- are talking from the standpoint of living in the USA. Now, I've been living in Bulgaria for the past 20 months, and am happy to have found a channel that is from an EU fella. So, new sub here. When you mentioned the issues with Italy and Greece, for example, that as a part of the Euro zone they can't create their own money, it got me thinking of Bulgaria. For the past few years, the BG lev has a fixed link to the Euro, however- everyone is talking about entering the Euro zone in 2024 and so many locals are so scared of that. Again, love your channel, and would personally love to have more real estate videos (gonna check now if you have some) as i was thinking of getting a place in Bansko, but prices are so fluid it's insane... 3-4 years ago you could pay 10K euro for a studio that will now cost 25K. Prices are getting higher and higher, and I was also looking into other countries to maybe be apartments there, but my understanding of the real estate market in Europe is... Horrible? LOL so would love your take on housing if you can :) Cheers and keep on making awesome content !

Love it. Thanks for keeping it balanced and playing out all scenarios. Never change that approach!

This man has amazing focus to do his presentation and avoid showering his love on the Cat

@Tetragrammaton22

Жыл бұрын

I just kept saying "pet the cat!"

@MoneyMacro

Жыл бұрын

Hehe. I did so between takes :)

@kristiyanivanov7414

Жыл бұрын

cat is so invested in economics

That neon light in the back is really cool. Same goes for the color grading, awesome video!

We need to be honest. The most important thing in this video is not Joeri; it is Macrocat!

@WPaKFamily

Жыл бұрын

Purrfect idea

@yuriyfazylov5506

Жыл бұрын

For a second I thought it was “Yuriy.”

@noneofyourbusiness4830

Жыл бұрын

"Yuri is master." - Initiate

@tropics8407

Жыл бұрын

Macro cat is a star 🤩

@nsgdesign

Жыл бұрын

That kitty 😍

Glad to see you back and posting.

This is the most informative cat video I've ever watched! On a more serious note; I think this is the moment where we pretty please can stop buying up more debt. We need a stronger currency because we can't expect our export advantage to counter our import disadvantage with this kind of world economy. Roughly 3 years too late, but perhaps they see reason.

I really would love to see your follow-up video on this with the current situation

good summary of the upcoming events, great work!

I love how you encourage people to take responsibility for what they learn, hear, and understand to form their own opinion. ❤

Small mistake at around 11:18. The map of eurozone countries include Sweden, which is not part of the eurozone.

Great video, thanks for sharing!

Keep it up, really good stuff for a non-economist. Love the probability distributions and admitting uncertainty in your predictions.

@arianghorbani1305

Жыл бұрын

He’s got a phd in it, not exactly a non-economist lol

@Tetragrammaton22

Жыл бұрын

@@arianghorbani1305 They probably mean for a non-economist audience.

@martindbp

Жыл бұрын

@@arianghorbani1305 No, no, I mean I'm not an economist, and he's explaining things well!

hi from UK Joeri - thank you for your video (nice touch including UK and EU flags at the start - we are in this together)

I love your honesty for not knowing exactly what will happen and you give us probabilities instead.

Awesome explaination! For me the scenerio 1 or 3 are most likely and possible

Really appreciate the probabilistic forecasts!

Really nice video especially the percentage scenario

These probabilities are functions of outside temperature. The lower the temperature, the higher demand is for energy to keep warm making the price of energy higher making the severity of any recession increase. Mild recession probability is positively correlated with temperature level while severe and apocalyptic probabilities are negatively correlated with temperature level.

@benhur2806

Жыл бұрын

Which is why it's absolutely perfect that there's being a negative NAO forecast for this winter... (Meaning more polar air outbreaks + less strong moderating westerlies)

@ni9274

Жыл бұрын

The only time we want climate warning. The other problem is that the heat strike in Europe impacted negatively France nuclear reactor, half of them are down actually.

Thanks for this video... its great to understand the factors in place. Now i can observe these events and se which way things go. Very balanced analysis. Great work.

This is very informative. Thanks for the in depth explanation

Thank you for making amazing videos. They genuinely help me learn a lot

I think i read that UK is going to spend hundreds of billions to subsidize power costs over the next few years. At that rate would it not be cheaper and more practical to build a few nuclear plants?

I am from Spain. No increase in electricity, but gas 3x times. In Andalucia you don't really care on heating.

As Toon Hermans said, doesn't seem to be much of a problem short-term if unemployment rate stays high, taxes aren't increased and government spending("economy boosting") does not increase. Long-term, imports from other countries for cheaper goods, increasing the number of renewable energy sources and lower taxes on imports might be a good thing to have for increasing purchasing power for most things. Like, the opposite of Romania's 15% inflation, where everything not made here got 25% more expensive.

Fantastic episode. Love hearing your rationale for the probability of each scenario.

Good stuff, thank you for your insight at this point. Maybe a topic worth revisiting from time to time... ? - one thing though: how will the dwindling labour market participation affect economic contraction, what are your thoughts?

@richteffekt

Жыл бұрын

I mean sure, Putin is doing his best to supply Europe with a prime age workforce but that will only take us so far.

I love your "tone" and clarity of expression. Subscribed !

I don't think energy prices have called this much worry since the 70s oil crisis. Luckily I think our economic theory has advanced since then but it's still dire news. Energy's so important from fuelling delivery vehicles, to keeping the lights on and staying warm, to powering heavy machinery.

Thank you for the hard work!

Great that you got solar panels very smart investment. You should also look at battery backup as an addition to your system. Another great video.

I would love to see an update on this video.

@myg1488

9 ай бұрын

I am pretty sure he did an update on this video

Thank you for petting the cat at the end ❤️

Love you work. Facts without fear mongering

@morganangel340

Жыл бұрын

what? don't like the ''China Economy will COLLAPSE om 20 days'' type of clips ? 😂

Great informative videos! Thank you 🙏

Thanks from Italy for your great content!

Hey, interesting topic! Just noticed that the graphic in 11:17 depicts Sweden as part of the Eurozone. It's not a part though and has kept it's own currency, the "krona" :)

@MoneyMacro

Жыл бұрын

Misclick... Should have been Finland

Bedankt weer! Top video. +1 voor Macrocat 😊

Great video! Thanks!!

very interesting. thanks for making this

the cat also wanted to give his thoughts about the recession but sadly the video was cut short :(

in the graph showing before apocalyptic recession you show 45% chance instead of 15%.

@MoneyMacro

Жыл бұрын

My bad

@Genial1990

Жыл бұрын

Well tell it to my heart. I almost had a heart attack seeing these 45% 😉

@moritamikamikara3879

Жыл бұрын

@@MoneyMacro Another thing I noticed is you drew Sweden as being part of the Eurozone, it's not, it uses the Swedish Krona

@l4m41987

Жыл бұрын

@Moritami Kamikara it is still part of europe but not using the euro.

High energy cost means high production costs, that makes what Germany, for example, produces, non-competitive on the global markets. Factories will be closed, unemployment will rise, governments will be out of money, having much less tax revenue. And borrowing will be much much more expensive, they will end up giving up property to investors, no one needs euros you can't buy anything with.

Money and macro is back baby!

If you think about those scenarios probabilities relative to one another (severe is 3x apocaliptic), then I would have to disagree. But overall that was a great analysis! Please continue with your awesome content!

Very interesting and well thought video presentation. Like I learned economics in practical application. Love the cat as well 😁He seems curious as well.

6:03 You have minus signs there. If you're using a negative to portray lowered effectiveness of funds, then the +25% price change would mean a -20% change in what the money can pay for, for example.

Interesting choice of words. There is also that *other* apocalyptic scenario...

No recession is coming , the markets are full of money

@WhichDoctor1

11 ай бұрын

Result of a combination of an unexpectedly warm winter and dramatic falls in energy prices. The EU dodged the bullet, but was still pure chance

Great video, thanks. What do you predict for the longer term? How long do you think the recession will last?

Very informative video, good job

Great video! After hearing about the potential Greece and Italy bailouts I got a question: what are the benefits/disadvantages of having a common currency across Europe. I remember watching your video about danish krone, it had some answers there. I guess the correct and boring answer is that countries want to have their own monetary policies, but maybe you could expand on the topic in another high quality fascinating educational video 🙂

@Duck-wc9de

Жыл бұрын

And what happened in the UK is a reason why the euro is so great. The UK is one of the world's most stable and largest economies, but it's currency was completly powerless against the markets. Now imagine trying to defend the portuguese escudo against the market

@dante5526

Жыл бұрын

that's because they are against big speculator rather than an undefined "the market"

@TheMagicJIZZ

Жыл бұрын

@@Duck-wc9dekeep this energy when the ECB matches the Boe and fed on rates

@blakedake19

Жыл бұрын

You can't a stable export/import market among nations and this big as it is in the EU without a common currency. It is not a cooincidence that the most integrated economies in the EU are those with the same currency.

@REDnBLACKnRED

Жыл бұрын

@@Duck-wc9de The Danish Krone is considered rather strong because it is pegged to the euro. The Swedish and Norwegian krone on the other hand are independent and much more susceptible to market fluctuations. The Swedish krone has lost more value against the dollar than the Euro or Danish krone. However, during the last Eurozone crisis, Sweden came out on top because of their independent monetary policy. They were also the first EU country to recover after the Covid-19 pandemic because of this. So there is two sides to the same coin. Sweden can absolutely join the Euro, they are staying out voluntarily by choosing not to meet the requirements, and the EU is turning a blind eye because they are a net contributor. If they continue to stay out, something must be working for them.

The euro is devaluating so fast bro😥

@CristhianN96

Жыл бұрын

Yes

Great video. Thank You

Great vid!

Ahh, the end of the EU ...again ^^ In german, there is a saying: Totgesagte leben länger! If everyone thinks you are dead allready - you will live longer ^^

Your cat looked very sleepy during the first and second scenario, and considerably more enthusiastic during the explanation of the third scenario. So i follow the cat and opt for the scenario of a mild recession...

@neilreynolds3858

Жыл бұрын

I believe the cat.

I love your deliverance and your voice is so soothing

Excellent level headed video! Really like the channel. How do you think recent reports of gas prices hitting a 3 month low with EU storage being at 90% capacity?

Sweden is not part of the Euro-area though, we still have Swedish Kronor as our currency

@AUniqueHandleName444

Жыл бұрын

Sweden is also not very reliant on gas. Sweden is probably going to be one of the best-positioned Eurozone economies for this downturn.

@bogrunberger

Жыл бұрын

Denmark too, but both Sweden and Denmark have locked their currencies to the Euro and will follow the policy from the ECB. And even though Sweden doesn't use a lot of gas, they are still a part of the European energy market and will be influenced of price fluctuations I think.

@quimlidholm6261

Жыл бұрын

@@bogrunberger Denmark has pegged its currency to Euro, Sweden has not done that, its currency is free floating.

@Joostmhw

Жыл бұрын

@@AUniqueHandleName444 literally just explained how Sweden was not part of the Euro zone -_-

@quimlidholm6261

Жыл бұрын

@@Joostmhw yepp, seems people can't read and also likes to state facts which are not accurate :). But I think thatguy just meant EU-country, not Euro-zone. Just saw DW News also managed to show that Denmark and Sweden was part of the eurozone.

I saw the cat you need a large dog as well as they are a great heat source for cold winter nights.

Amazing Video. Fun to watch well researched. Keep on the good work.

Great video, easy to follow and cat

The only thing I would add is the effect of the war in Ukraine and the explosion at the nordstream pipeline. The liquid natural gas that the United States is sending to Europe I have been told costs Europe ten times as much as the gas Russia was sending to Europe via the pipeline that went through the Ukraine.

So, we live in a highly integrated but decentralized system. Part of the cost of that are these challenges. Keep your head up and remember that we enjoy a standard of living our ancestors could barely imagine. As tough as things can get, we will get through. We have gotten this far....

@Joostmhw

Жыл бұрын

Maybe look into the recent climate report

@baph0met

Жыл бұрын

We live in the most centralized system in history other than Nazi Germany and Soviet Union, we need more decentralization. Centralization and monopoly is what caused all of this.

@corbin8930

Жыл бұрын

Ah yes living standards and luxuries that we can lo longer afford.

@paulr4747

Жыл бұрын

Never forget that the higher you go the harder you fall...

@cautarepvp2079

Жыл бұрын

@@baph0met we still live in the best times to be alive, in Europe and North America

Amazing video! BTW where did you get your sweater from?

The frame could be adjusted just a bit up. Your head is just too close to the top. Loving the new setup! 😍 And thanks for the great video again 🙏🏼

I hope from now on every video gonna feature this fluffy cat!!!

Sweden is not in the eurozone. Denmark basically is, since the Danish Krona is tied to the Europe by a fixed rate.

@gavasiarobinssson5108

Жыл бұрын

How difficult is it to break that bond? government decision?

@gavasiarobinssson5108

Жыл бұрын

@@secretname4190 province of Denmark. Subdued to Berlin once again

@gavasiarobinssson5108

Жыл бұрын

@@secretname4190 I prefer democracy

At first I worried about the propability, but then a cute cat with a plumpy face appeared on your desk. It reminded me to take things slow and enjoy the good things in life.

Your picture used when you talked about the Eurozone had Sweden included, which is not correct. Just nitpicking, but there isn't much else to do up here this time of year until there is snow for winter activities!

Great vid, thanks you for sharing your thoughts, Dr Joeri ❤️ Also, just a small typo, at 10:40 the probability of the 2nd event is accidentally mentioned as 45% instead of 15% 😌

@itrebor

Жыл бұрын

IMO I thought the typo was to assume a severe recession was 45% instead of 15%. Once the first domino falls, every domino thereafter is more likely to fall more swiftly.

Scenario 1: 45% Scenario 2: 15% Scenario 3: 35% *Total = Only 95%* What’s the other 5%? Growth? Normalcy?

@MoneyMacro

Жыл бұрын

Unforseen scenario's. I mention this in the conclusion :)

@seiwarriors

Жыл бұрын

Probably no recession

@john10000ish

Жыл бұрын

Nuclear W.

Gas cost now ~ 100 EUR. December '21 - was 140+. Also had 30+ degrees C in Europe today, 2 days before November 1st. USD took a 2% hit vs EUR in the last 2-3 days. This changes the narratives.

Exploding Norwegian pipelines is an interesting topic. As is mysteriously severed Atlantic cables, which the people of the Shetland Isles recently discovered. The potential for commercial & military satellites to fail has also been mentioned.

very good analysis explaining quite well the possible outcome. Of course the mild recession scenario is more a fairy tale told by people who do not want to face reality but still the overall analysis is quite good!

@gokulkrishna4011

Жыл бұрын

Anyways no apocalyptic recession. That's enough we will get over this

Scenario 3... In the German chemical industry, the share of energy in the cost of the product is 16%. LNG was two and a half times more expensive than Russian gas, not including supply pressure, transportation pressure, and the capital cost of regasification and pipeline changes (assuming the eightfold price is transitory ). In the industrial world, a few percent make the difference. Explain to me how the company BASF can sell its products 40 to 50% more expensive than its competitors? In Europe for several months we have been manufacturing more fertilizers, aluminum, zinc. Largest glass tableware producer Arc International had to reschedule production 6 times in two months, ultimately slowing down its 9 kilns and sending 1,600 of its 4,500 employees on furlough. Alcoa has canceled 1/3 of its production, it's only the beginning of autumn. Arcelor has just shut down blast furnaces in Germany. The inventor in his field, the former Hakle gmbh, which is Germany's leading consumer goods manufacturer, has filed for bankruptcy with the Düsseldorf court. Already the rescue of 13 billion UNIPER is well known... THANK YOU JOERI you are the best. Your videos deserve the bell, the klaxon, the Taser and all..

@tropics8407

Жыл бұрын

Cannot see how our heavy industry sector will survive but I guess that is the endgame 🤕 but we are smart and will figure something out. We have the money….invest in our own energy gas production for one 🤷‍♂️

@bambusmode8902

Жыл бұрын

The transportation cost of LNG were two and a half times more expensive including regasification. Not the total price of Gas in total. It is also a important thing of consideration that only a comperably small part of the total gas supply would come from LNG (the new france-algier pipeline, aswell as the kazahstan and Azerbaijani pipelines will cover a lot of the long term supply). You are confusing the Hakle consumer goods group with the small Hakle paper company (which is in financial problems since the wood prices exploded). Most of the chemical industry here in germany is currently divesting from natural gas as a heating source. The company I work for is currently occupied with retrofitting many chemical plants to run on coal again (has been temporarily relegalized).

@opporancisis5834

Жыл бұрын

The energy crisis in Germany was more severe at the end of summer than it is now. This was due to long drought periods in central Europe, especially in France, where most nations rely on hydro or nuclear energy. In Northern Italy and Switzerland production of hydro energy went down by 32% during July and August, however they recovered a bit and are now only 14% behind normal production rates. Also nuclear energy was a real trap this year, in France half of all plants were unndertaken repair measures and the other plants werent able to produce on full rates due the water shortages affecting their cooling systems. Since the european energy grid is interconected Germany had to subisidize the french, italian and austrian energy markets with their own energy which, of course, led to even higher energy prices in Germany. A majority of these problems cooled down when a 3 week rain season started in germany in the beginning of october. Energy costs will decrease even further on the european market once water reserves in the alps and in the scandic mountains are restored. A big chunk of these heavy industry problems in germany came from this rise in energy costs. For example: Audi had to reduce its production in Ingolstadt in August and September because they were heavily reliant on the hydro energy produced in the alps, whichs price skyrocketed . Since the beginning of october theyre increasing their production again, slowly but steadily heading towards normal production rates. A lot of other companies (especially manufacturers) in Bavaria faced the same problem, are however in a recovery situation right now since energy prices are stabilizing. This doesnt affect all german companies though. Lets have a look at schleswig holstein for example. They have a massive energy surplus due to wind and solar energy and their large companies arent facing the same problems in costs as companies in NRW or Baden Würtemberg.

The exploding pipes scenario deserves more than 5% probability for sure.

Thank you sir 🙏

45 + 15 + 35 = 95. Is there a 5% tax?

@charadr33murr

Жыл бұрын

5% chance of meteor falling and destroying Europe ig

@matthewdrews

Жыл бұрын

He explains at the end a 5% probability of unforeseen circumstances that may result in situations drastically better/worse.

@chumpzilla30

Жыл бұрын

@@matthewdrews whew, that was close 😅.

@faiq026

Жыл бұрын

5% chance for ww3