Estimating the Chances of Life Out There
April 20, 2005
Dr. Frank Drake (SETI Institute, University of California, Santa Cruz)
In 1961, Dr. Drake proposed an intriguing method of estimating the number of intelligent life-forms out there that we might communicate with, now called the Drake Equation. In this talk, Dr. Drake provides a modern update on estimates for the existence of "E.T." He draws on new ideas and new observations (including the discovery of planets around other stars), which have helped astronomers refine both the targets where they search for life and the methods they use.
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plenty of clear information, presented VERY pleasantly, both in terms of the intonation and voice, and the nice restrained funny sense of humor. THANKS!
Frank Donald Drake (born May 28, 1930) is an American astronomer and astrophysicist. He is involved in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, including the founding of SETI,[2][3][4][5] mounting the first observational attempts at detecting extraterrestrial communications in 1960 in Project Ozma, developing the Drake equation, and as the creator of the Arecibo Message, a digital encoding of an astronomical and biological description of the Earth and its lifeforms for transmission into the cosmos.
This talk was given in 2005. Since then we have discovered many, many exo-planets. I think that it is only a matter of time...
i would like to hear more from dr.Drake
Fantastic lecture Dr Drake
Oy! With the Fracnoy singsong intro. I listen to these lectures regularly and always skip the intro.
what he said about a futuristic telescope using the sun as a lens was really interesting. Not sure how far off that is from being a reality, perhaps a few hundred years? When it becomes possible, it would enable us to see as small as a city on a distant planet in another solar system. That would revolutionize so many things in our experience of the universe.
@BluffCreekStudio
2 жыл бұрын
20-30 years away
One possibly "special" thing about Earth is if we did have a massive collision that brought an abundance of heavy metals up to the surface, which also would have produced a variety of chemical compounds that otherwise wouldn't have occurred.
I am not convinced that rogue planets could support life based on their own geothermal groove!! Dasnny
Chemistry is chemistry wherever it is in this universe. Chances are 99.99%.
Drake how cool is Drake.
Single star formations, you ain't going to get an Earth orbiting a double or triple star system, which I've read most systems are, so that should greatly reduce the odds.
Always enjoy speculative lectures like these. IMHO I believe we are still generations away from knowing if intelligent life exists elsewhere. We could shorten the time with major expenditures in space telescopes. Not sure if nations are willing to devote that many resources to a project with no immediate benefits.
What are the chances that in a Galaxy of a Trillion Planets; we would live on the only Planet of trillions that hosted life. Life is abundant; and we are close to detecting oxygen in a newly discovered Exoplanet atmosphere.
@jackcarter3944
8 жыл бұрын
+zebonaut smith What are the chances? It depends on the variables you assign to the equation. My sense is that cosmic rays and gamma rays in particular routinely destroy developing life especially anywhere near the center of any galaxy. It is also the case that their frequency has only recently been decreasing significantly. Change the value you assign each variable by a couple of orders of magnitude, and instead of tens of thousands of civilizations per galaxy, you have fewer than one.
@pauldance7387
5 жыл бұрын
zebonaut smith if me live in a simulated reality it’s moot point.
@flymasterA
4 жыл бұрын
Jack Carter , not only that, there's the time factor. Aside from evaluations and extrapolations, we can't tell much from freeze-frame telescope images that are like looking at photos from 1800s earth. The space images are from before life existed on earth. Life in far-away galaxies could have sprouted in millions of forms and then been eradicated, either by suicide (like earth), or outside forces, like asteroid impacts. We are talking in terms of possibilities with anything beyond our solar system. Let's use the Time Machine movies as visual aids. As he traveled back in time, the images of the past fanned past as he travelled back. Assuming he had an earth location lock*, he was able to stop in time. But civilizations came and went in the seconds that he travelled back. * to keep his starting location point fixed as earth barrels through space, else the traveler would be where the earth was in the past- in deep space. If a ship was traveling at Warp 1000 (needed to reach anything at distance), they would see a planet come into existence (first images), mature, life start, last for millions of earth years, civilization come and vanish, and maybe be able to witness the obliteration of that planet from said asteroid. Then you'd be watching a debris field for billions of condensed years. So no planet, then a planet plus history, to post planet rubble. So the time factor is a huge variable for any event of existence (let alone life). So, searching for life with the random chance time variables, the odds for finding life could be 1 millionth of what they would be with a static universe. Just for discussion: if you are traveling through space and watching this past progression, and then everything disappeared, would you keep going or turn around and skedaddle back home, but watching everything in reverse on the way back?. (Could be the Borg eating whole galaxies) And since we're watching old past images in time, could we go past earth and see images in the future? Seems a key factor is a reference point. So if we slowed down approaching earth, we could watch the pyramids being quickly built in time past. We'd also be time traveling but only past light images. So light-image time travel, seeing life-spans past , present, and future could be accomplished via faster-than-light-speed travel. Your thoughts? Or is my pain med. set too high again today?
@flagstafup5857
4 жыл бұрын
I agree that life has to be abundant throughout a galaxy. Why should oxygen be factor when seeking other life forms?
@flagstafup5857
4 жыл бұрын
Mark Martin, I guess what I am alluding to is why not life forms dependent other means of existence, (other than O2). If life can develop in an atmosphere such as earths, why not in a chlorine, or Argon or any gaseous atmosphere Why gas? And why hydrocarbon based life? Given the chance life will thrive, developing all the essentials to evolve whatever the host planet, and the universe has to throw at it. 👽
Dense CO2 is a factor but Venus' big problem is its retrograde rotation. It bakes because its day is 2/3s of a year long.
@Brently220
8 жыл бұрын
+Larkinchance Venus is the same temperature on its "dark side" as it is on its "light side" this was derived from Frank Drake's doctoral thesis. Its high CO2 latent atmosphere keeps it the same temperature regardless of its orientation. Drake claims that the atmosphere is as dense as our ocean. Drake, Frank and Dava Sobel, Is Anybody Out There? NY, Delacorte Press 1992. 42
E.T. -Gdzieś są. silentium universi ?
I understand that SETI is also searching for possible signs of Dyson Spheres. Apparently this would involve looking for heat waste and energy sources similar to that expected from a star, but in an area of the sky where there is no apparent star to explain the observation. It's a sobering thought to imagine an advanced civilization huddled around a star cocooned within an engineered shell. Perhaps its automated rather than inhabited and is considered by its creators as no more amazing than we consider a standard power plant here on Earth.
@guilhermesilveira5254
3 жыл бұрын
The concept of " Dyson Sphere" is an impossible technology.
As we have found no 'Twin Earths' out of the hundreds of 'exoplanets' it may be that the Drake equation needs updating.
@bimmjim
7 жыл бұрын
It is obvious, from your comment, that this lecture has gone way over your head. Why are you not aware of this?
Man kinds most arrogant thought was, That he is alone in the universe. The second, He thought he could conquer it. T.H. 2020
I think Frank is wildly overestimating the likelihood of technological life arising in any galaxy. The profound silence we've observed so far suggests such advanced life-forms are rare and these species are separated by almost insurmountable barriers of time and space.
@sudhirpakala388
Жыл бұрын
Totally agree.
@millenialmusings8451
Жыл бұрын
If it wasn't for that accident of an asteroid hitting earth 65 million years ago, dinosaurs would still be roaming the earth as they had for hundreds of millions of years. It was a fluke that intelligent homo sapiens evolved on this planet. I had done some calculations a while back that estimated the probability of intelligent life existing in the entire universe to be 10^-65. Whereas there are only 10^25 planets in the observable universe. So according to that calculations, intelligent life on this planet itself is a fluke and we're the o ly intelligent life in the entire observable universe!
Life is so invasive, persistent and greedy on this planet that it must spring up and thrive EVERYWHERE local conditions are favorable. However, the constant focus on finding intelligent life presupposes that our kind of technology building intelligence has any long term species survival value, which it may not have. If anything, technology intelligence seems to be self-destructive, possibly leading to quick self-extinction built in -- especially when combined with religious or ideological insanity.
I think intelligent life is rare. There are so many factors that need to be present in order for that to happen. But considering just how enormous the universe is, with billions of other galaxies besides our own, each with billions of planets, makes it almost a certainty that intelligent life has arisen elsewhere. I doubt very much, though, that they will ever be within reach. It is simply too far and the travel time would be much too long.
@guilhermesilveira5254
3 жыл бұрын
I agree with you about this point
not a great speaker, but a great topic and very knowledgeable.
1 life per infinity is very small number.
im joking
The presenter is unaware of the INTRAVIA HYPOTHESIS which states simply that "Since we have not seen life created, we do not know all the conditions necessary for its occurrence." In addition to planetary conditions (atmosphere, temperature, water, etc), there may be one or more "cosmic" condition(s) necessary which may have existed for only a limited time in a limited space. (The level of background radiation from the Big Bang might be such a "cosmic" condition) Thus, it becomes plausible that there was only one planet with the right conditions AT THE RIGHT MOMENT. Put another way, the Drake Equation may be missing at least one term ... of arbitrarily small value.
Why are these scientists comedians.
There are multiple intelligent species on planet Earth merely depending on how you define intelligence. I personally, being a cat take great offence to Drake's assertion that humans are the only intelligent life on Earth. That's actually bs. Just because they can't express in such a refined way as we is actually irrelevant in many ways to what defines intelligence for me. But I respect him for his work, have pondered much his famous equation.
@galaxia4709
9 жыл бұрын
You don't have to feel offended, dear cat. Frank Drake is absolutely not asserting you're not intelligent, because there is the factor of detectable intelligent life (= technological intelligence) in his equation.
@newforestpixie5297
6 жыл бұрын
AlternatingFrogs brrrrrrppppp , miiaaaooww, 😺
Give up Frank were alone.
@maximuscomfort
4 жыл бұрын
Jgeorge, agree intelligent life we are uber rare. Bacteria a few here and there, maybe not. Multiply "not" by a google-plex.
@guilhermesilveira5254
3 жыл бұрын
SETI project will be erased. Life is unique.
I feel sorry for Frank, he cant tell us what he really knows.
Frank Drake, the father of SETI. Mr. Drake's equation does not include the letter "C", for the"Creator" of the Universe. I believe that there is a being that we call God. Now, if you add that letter "C", there could be millions of Earth-like planets, or Exoplanets in our Galaxy.
@bimmjim
7 жыл бұрын
It is obvious, from your comment, that this lecture has gone way over your head. Why are you not aware of this?
SETI is just a fiction.
after 10 mins, i cant listen to this mans stuttering any longer, it is so distracting was so looking forward to the subject matter, guess il hav to find a similar lecture with a different speaker!
@steverowson4434
6 жыл бұрын
clear off then.
Can't take the dry tongue smacking and clicking....
The Drake equation is simplistic bordering on idiotic. -It does not even take in to account the magnetic field. I would hazard a guess that the probability of coincidental complex serendipitous phenomena allowing for the evolution of human kind is approximately equal to the number of stars in the galaxy. Astronomical.
@bimmjim
7 жыл бұрын
If you write a test in Science, how do you score? Seriously, have yourself tested.
this man is so hard to listen to. he sounds terribly unsure of himself and lacking confidence for a man with obviously so much knowledge of the subject he is speaking about