Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity
www.ted.com Ecologist Eric Berlow doesn't feel overwhelmed when faced with complex systems. He knows that more information can lead to a better, simpler solution. Illustrating the tips and tricks for breaking down big issues, he distills an overwhelming infographic on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan to a few elementary points.
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on design, Jill Bolte Taylor on observing her own stroke, Nicholas Negroponte on One Laptop per Child, Jane Goodall on chimpanzees, Bill Gates on malaria and mosquitoes, Pattie Maes on the "Sixth Sense" wearable tech, and "Lost" producer JJ Abrams on the allure of mystery. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these topics as well as science, business, development and the arts. Closed captions and translated subtitles in a variety of languages are now available on TED.com, at www.ted.com/translate. Watch a highlight reel of the Top 10 TEDTalks at www.ted.com/index.php/talks/top10
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Coulda delved a little deeper.
Great topic! But I want so much more -- there's nothing else on KZread for Eric Berlow. TEDTalk needs to reprieve this talk and give him waaaaay more time!
This is very true. Zoom out and simplify, or make it more abstract and simplify. This is a technique that programmers use daily when creating a code architecture to work with.
1:57-2:07: I had to rewind back to hear what Eric Berlow was saying, because- I say this with a tone of respectful admiration- did y'all see the arms on that cameraman behind him??? And he was so good at standing SO still! xD Just want to give the cameraman his props and I encourage him to continue whatever he does for his physical wellness, the results are working.
"it is simple when you know how to find the core of the complexity and ignore everything else" Wow, what a genius.
@SmugHomura
4 жыл бұрын
That's literally not what he said
I'd love to see a diagram of my daughter's last year of high school- it might clarify what I REALLY can influence with respect to her choosing her college. I.e. buy the coffee she is most comfortable, so she makes a pot in the morning which triggers my warm feelings from and to her, instead of sadness that she never considers me, is going to leave and forget me, because I am a terrible mom, despite all I've done for her, or listening when she IS ready to talk about her fears and insecurities about her essay, instead of still feeling hurt that she went to a coach, her teacher or her dad first.
It seems like the video was missing important details like: 1. what software is that and where is similar software available? 2. what if you don't have a complete data set 3. who puts in this complex data and organizes the relationships 4. are the nodes "weighted" ? more.....details......please....but thanks for the introduction.
I agree. I just found out recently that complexity is one of my key traits. Being that I love the little things, in basketball, music, art, or chess... this is actually great. Complex people are one of the best problem solvers I believe, looking at everything from all angles, finding out what's best for the greater good. It doesn't really lead to anxiety if you consider that you have somewhat the perspective of control. And I understand there are things you can't control.. and you factor that into the complexity as well. Great TED talk - on the other side of complexity is simplicity, and that truly rings well in my life, and I'm sure the lives of others as well.
@conorthompson943
6 жыл бұрын
Hey dude, this is an awesome comment. I have few questions I'd like to ask you if that would be cool, could you email me on conor.thompson333@gmail.com or reply back with your email address? Many Thanks
That ain't a Spaghetti diagram folks, it's a Causal-Loop-Diagram. Super useful for mapping out and actioning a Complex System.
This model sits really well with anyone who thinks about soil health. Beautifully described and explained.
As much as I love TED, why does a topic as interesting as this get only
@dontopenthisaccount1637
2 жыл бұрын
Yeah and some unnecessary topics gets 3 20 minutes
I guess you mean that *complicatedness* is a perception, don't you? So, when you say that a system can be complex, but whether or not it's complicated depends on the capacities of the mind that studies it - well, I would agree! :-) BTW: I think there's nothing wrong with arguing over semantics. Clear definitions of the words we use is the basis for useful communication. Good day to you too!
@wodahsking he said something like: many complex diagrams/presentation may seem more complicated on the surface, but sometimes, the complexity actually make subjects or topics ezier to understad
very good subject about visualization
Found this from Coursera CSS recommendation, found it crazily insightful!
needed more time seriously!
@Nielow100 Mostly, it seemed to me a call to use visualization software to work with and in complexity, rather than around it. It would've been nice to hear A: what software he uses, and B: whether or not said software is open-source (I've no idea about either, sadly), but he definitely showed that complexity needn't frighten us away from a problem.
Excellent!!
looking into multipleintellige and interdeciplinary works how to use 360 degree look for analize and sentesize and use NLP to find the one bric to change to start the ignition as simple down work from complexity and see it
That was awesome.
@racedaemon - yeah....I just wish there was a little more but, thanks for that information.
I would of liked for it to be longer. (That's not what she said)
@Tradd9 to expand on my latest hobby project using a similar approach. I've done benchmarking on Solid State Drives (SSDs) for a few years. Recently i looked at performance scaling of SSDs by benchmarking in 6 dimensions (6 variables scaled according to eachother) and filtering a data set of over 10.000 data points pr configuration to find how scaling is influenced by the variables, and how this relates to the configurations.
I'm awed by the transformative power of this material. A book with related content reshaped my life. "Mindful Mastery: Living Intentionally in a Chaotic World" by Kyle Ash
@Tradd9 saying they are wrong most of the time is different from saying they are wrong all of the time. If you have data proving they are wrong most of the time, i won't fight that point. Disregarding ALL because MOST are wrong may work in daily life, but it means you may disregard someone that is right from time to time. The method is, to expand the data set, identify relations within it, and then filter it for the parts relevant to your work on the data. I've done this a bit in hobby projects.
To short....wanted more....brilliant idea....but need more
Summary: If something is complex, that means theres more information to work with, and you can get easier answers by just looking at the broad picture. Whereas, if you have less information, you need to really work with that information to get answers, and that would be complexity. Or something.
i think the best solutions are simple. equally useful solutions, one complex, one simple. the simple is always preferable. it's more parsimonious, it has an economy of explanation or applicability - it explains and works with a lot, with less of itself. less is more. like a theory - you could come up with a separate kinetic theory for every element or every state of matter, but the only really and truly good theory is one which assumes the least and explains the most - just like the 'solutions'.
There's a paper called the hierarchical multi-level content on how to organize knowledge look it up if you're interested to learn more about this stuff
simlifying happens with the colour line drawned connected points ..clear show of links -mind mapping .. create clusters and seperate them in caos. many things all things are complex-i because nterconnected..
WTH! The real thing didnt even start!!
@qigong1001 well normally i solve the yosemetie species problem with automatic weapons, alcohol, and lots and lots of uncontrolled firepower. i wonder if that same system would work in afghanistan.
@freesk8 It's still a whole lot easier than the original diagram suggests. You are missing the point of the talk: I think everyone will agree that not every problem has simple solutions. The war in Afghanistan will not be solved easily. What he showed was a good way to reduce the complexity of difficult problems and isolate the factors that matter, so that one may start thinking about the solutions. Instead of being tangled up in a diagram.
@ELDK2008 At 1:14 there is a logo saying "Microsoft Research", maybe it's a clue to the software used.
Go to 3:40 to see the actual commercial without wasting time on the video (thumb up)
Pretty cool.
Thank u all
Oh I see! Some explain in simple what he said!
Is there an app that we could use like that to zone out what’s not immediately relevant
Poor guy, could've given him a bit more time.. I mean come on TED!
Of course, a simple solution is better than a complex solution if (!) they are equivalent. But what's the point of having a simple solution if it's false? Sometimes complexity is inevitable. I guess we could agree on this: "As simple as possible, as complex as necessary." Or: "As simple as possible, but not simpler."
@matchbox555 actualy he said alot :-) you need to go deeper in your thinking he said fair availibility of key services is the best way to gain support . he said that if you "zoom out" you get a better picture . zoom out and you will get what i got witch is basicaly impliying things ... like military support is not realy necessary and the sphere of influance to get support is verry narrow .
Well, that was vague and unhelpful.
@comtraya101 lol the thumbnail was for this vid was of the ad
@SwimStretchRepeat I'll complain when they put the commercial at the beginning.
I WANT MORE! .... uh, i mean NEED more to understand enough.
I think the trick is to do a graphic and then extrapolate... so, how do you do a graphic?
XD I miss blackberry. Oh well.
so true, and when you begin from the 'no matter our discipline, views. and any else, we are speaking of one and the same universe. . it is complex enough to hold all our individual truths as . . like an MRI scan of a certain as seen from their particular. . . how do we fit them all into the holographic nature of creation. do the stars fabricate the sound vibrations each plant picks up on in support of the many life forms spirited in matter. its the plants that air the breath of our being
@hwnzero looking from the insight out problematic for you? never cotton to those who went by rote in life, consequently due to brain injury life had me writ in a way it takes thinking to wrap your mind round the notes we share..
@sparrow111260 It felt like the first chapter out of a book that's all. I'm not saying it's bad, I just want more I guess.
Mooar, I want moaaar!
Good topic, but too short
@Tradd9 the first paragraph critisized your overgeneralization of ecologists, and that being a weak basis for always distrusting them with prejudice. The second paragraph is a statement saying the method is usefull (not how it is) and used by mathematicians, without expanding on it or deffending it. The third paragraph summarizes to it being usefull to take a step back and look at the whole picture before deciding what points of it you want to look at.
lets give the CRAZIES 5 min, and THIS GUY more time.
That strategy slide was built the same way as he deconstructs it, building up a relationship of different nodes. To show it as a single slide is a bit like combining all of his slides and saying that this is too complex.
9 years later and the Blackberry ad seems so stupid.
I liked the talk. Didn't like the advert at the end. :-)
yep, but isn't that the difference between 'complex' and 'complicated'? what i meant to say was that truly complicated things don't exist often in scientific models and theories. complex exists, sure. but complex is a perception, not a statement about reality. i think we're just arguing over semantics :-) good day!
Graph theory, interesting stuff.
Just realized how old the video is.
Even if a system is built up of simple and limited components, the resulting system can become very complex. Ever tried to write a computer program in assembly language? ;-)
He boils it down to two points, but the problem is that each of these points is much more complex than he suggests. HOW do you engage with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs? (HOW can we get them to stop hating each other, and HOW can we be credible when we are mostly not Muslims? We're infidels!) And HOW do you get fair, transparent economic development? (Usually NOT by foreign aid that goes through governments. This usually enhances corruption.) It's all harder than it seems.
as well as taking time with your decisions to way all the angles, leads to more good decisions then rushing and only looking at one or two angles gets you many more poor choices
...half of this was an ad...but worth it
The real irony is that you can only diagram a complex system after the fact, in retrospect, never looking to the future.
1:53 chantler?
Great talk... I suddenly feel like buying a Blackberry(tm) for some reason.
hmm... still complex for me... can you simplify it?
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Just seems like a variation of Occam's Razor
@GrudgyDiablo you knew simple solutions could be derived from complex diagrams before watching this video?
Don't get me wrong; I like the occasional perv video, but I'm just wondering why so many are related to this one.
So look at the big picture desifer the most relavent links to get your solution! ;) not to shabby
agreed - but most things are really astonishingly and brutally simple if you really delve into the subject matter. when you say things are complex, what do you mean? i cannot think of genuinely complicated things in science, merely complex, all governed or described by simple, overarching generalizations that have been proven to be accurate time and time again. that's the nature of the scientific method, is it not? cheers
@Adepthood i think general Mcrystol probably asked the same thing lol. We give it to the insurgents and it causes their heads to explode.
Lakes with fish have more mosquitoes? Why?
I didn't get it
@sparrow111260 about which part?
you can say that again
What did he say?!?!?!
now if this was some women telling us we need to embrace our inner child we would have 25min TED , this vid was too short .
big up to blackberry!
zoom out, see a connection Afghanistan allege Jon Stewart now that is complex
blackberry girl is so sweet
hmmm, sounds complex
Damn. Wish he had more time.
50% of this TedTalk is infomercials. Simple.
allways is
A person talking about complex systems, and only has 3 and half minutes to make his point. To bad it's not long enough for him to make his point, it feels like half his presentation's missing. In other news, half the video was a commercial. Ironic.
to understand better look into mind mapping in google/and to humanrights org /newtactics
@Tradd9 your statement looses it's weight when you make big mistakes too, like a gross overgeneralization say "x always gets y wrong". Substitute always with often or most of the time, or something similar, and your stament carries more weight. Regardless of ecologists skills of statistical analysis, the methodology he uses is valid and usefull. Applied mathematicians often use a similar method. You need to expand your data set, and then filter it, to get to the simple relevant things you need.
give the man more time...
The talk... I disagree with his assessment. But... good ad, Blackberry.
Saying that the number of the military interventions were very few and NOT mentioning how many innocent people have been killed surely does simplify your problem, right? It seems that not every related fact is welcome in this kind of " understanding".
@leonidasx666 by extrapolating it. Duh. :P
A blackberry is really not that complex.
So, complexity never leads to simplicity. Got it. Thanks TED! I'm learning by rejecting this talk as informative and insightful! Is that how negative leads to positive? Hold on, I'll make a graph.....
Interesting but much too short. He barely got the idea out.
TedTalks and Bullshit walks!