Election’24: Brilliant insights from SA’s pollster extraordinaire Gareth v Onselen
South Africa’s political pollsters surpassed all expectations with their accurate calling of Election’24 - the watershed vote which was a shock for many and a surprise for most. In this fascinating review of the campaign, Victory Research CEO Gareth van Onselen takes us through the data, sharing his inside track on how and why polls fluctuated and what they mean for SA’s big and small parties and political leaders going ahead. He spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.
Video production by Asime Nyide
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Пікірлер: 74
Alec you are one of the few in the ‘mainstream media’ area who keep your honesty intact! Well done!!!
@timbaker4253
16 күн бұрын
Except for his obsession (and falling for) the “Russia bad” narrative
@Hannodb1961
16 күн бұрын
@@timbaker4253Its a pretty slam dunk argument. Russia is takimg us back to 19th century imperialism. Wars of aggression is not ok.
@IsmaelNxala
16 күн бұрын
The man has integrity🫡🤷♂️
@IsmaelNxala
16 күн бұрын
@@timbaker4253 I also used to believe in my Slav Comrades of the north… Til I started researching Putin… then I realised why the world is so against him personally, Russia is still one of fav countries I have friends there… but Russian politics is the equivalent of modern day King trying to conquer the world with their own unique way of governance that breeds Oligarchs, and only Oligarchs, again Russia is awesome nothing wrong with the people… its the Tyrant psychopath who refuses to step down or let anyone challenge his right to the throne thats the problem🤷♂️🫶🚶
Die waarheid maak jou vry and truth hurts & contradictions here to stay to ruffle the feathers of the corrupted skelms. Keep it up Gareth. Great stuff. Rgds Jannie.
Thank you, also to Gareth. Fascinating. He knows his subject 100%
Sometimes I like to think National Government is watching Biz News and taking notes like “ Oh that’s how it works “ and then be inspired to get their sh!t together🤷♂️🚶
@tsholomoloto7788
16 күн бұрын
Yes, they all copy what DA says or do, and I wish DA can stop talking sometimes and just watch skelms to blunder. They all copy everything from DA.
Thank you GvO. 🤙
Hopefully the smaller parties will add something largely positive to the political debate despite their size
Popcorn. The smaller parties ended up being popcorn.
@veronicakarstel9126
16 күн бұрын
THEY WERE ROBBED BUT LET US SEE IN 2026, YOU CAN SWALLOW THOSE WORDS
Gareth is a national treasure
Victory had ANC at over 46%. They got it horribly wrong. A poll 2 days out is useless. We need an accurate poll 4 weeks out.
@alanchapman2768
16 күн бұрын
The thing is, a poll is not a prediction. It is just a snapshot of the opinion at that time. And opinion changes, so a poll taken right before an election is more likely to be accurate.
@servaashofmeyr271
16 күн бұрын
Why do you need the poll? For investment reasons? General peace of mind?
@alanchapman2768
16 күн бұрын
@@servaashofmeyr271 yes. It's like market research in business, trying to find out which way the wind is blowing politically.
To GvO: Thank you.
Pity about Neil de Beers party missing out. Good future though...or not?
@stephensutherland413
16 күн бұрын
I like him too.
@kaminaik2056
16 күн бұрын
Yes thought neil would atleast get a seat in parly😢
@stephensutherland413
16 күн бұрын
Same....hy wil Malema moer !!
@stephensutherland413
16 күн бұрын
🤣
@veronicakarstel9126
16 күн бұрын
UIM is a threat to the DA that's why UIM's votes were rigged by IEC. Next election we will have observers at every polling station to watch these corrupt tossers
The DA needs Chris Pappas as their leader and image
This was a most enlightening report! WOW!!! John Steenhuisen to my view lacks a certain Charisma! The content of his speeches are excellent, but he doesn't come over convincingly enough!! What might have hurt the DA a little bit was their, not openly but still, support for Israel! That must've upset some of the coloured and Malay community who are Muslims!!😮
@adrianjones7197
16 күн бұрын
well the majority of the country are Christians so there is that consideration too so at least they took a stance for better or worse they wear their policies on their shoulders - then people chose and yet they still came in second biggest party and ANC lost votes in spite of them having opposite views so it balanced out nicely in the end
@Phillip-oo2ft
16 күн бұрын
Correction....muslim far far in minority in SA...we christian nation....and DA correct in standing with israel...its their land...given to them by God..sealed with an EVERLASTING BLOOD COVENANT.... ....EVERLASTING BLOOD... ......COVENANT. the israel haters publicly shamed..both mal ema and ramaposa..pandor also out... a very small portion of colourds are muslim...mostly in cape town area...they christian by far.
@francisdekock749
16 күн бұрын
Sorry, I don't get it. What is wrong with wanting both sides to be at peace and protected. If there is a will to discuss this, then let's start from the beginning, from Abraham, Ismail and Isaac, and what happened from then to now. Otherwise, there is no discussion.
Great work Gareth!
Alec when are you interviewing the deputy president of the EFF, you might disagree with them and their policies, but let's hear their perspective. Maybe after hearing him you might consider making him a speaker at one of your Biz conference.
I stopped voting DA when they went woke
@veronicakarstel9126
16 күн бұрын
THEY WILL LOSE VOTERS IN 2026
@myshepspud1
15 күн бұрын
Can't please everyone unfortunately. The tale of these times is the crazy people end up ruling because we make a stand on the 2%
The poor performance of the DA is a consequence of their inability to convert those interested black voters because of the messages they campaign with not talking to these black voters and convincing them to take the final step and vote for the DA. The other issue will continue to be the lack of credible Black, Coloured & Indian senior leaders. Changes to these factors could see the DA securing up to 29% in the next election.
@Abby_KayGee
16 күн бұрын
I agree with you. DA will be forever 20% party or possible decline if they don't change their strategy, policies and how they appear to black communities. Many black people love DA but they are not sure of it because of how DA policies appears to be anti blacks.
@myshepspud1
15 күн бұрын
Always found it strange that many groups only act on something if their interest is involved but only one group is maligned on it.
The real issue now, to go off topic vis a vis this program, is how the ANC and Ramaphosa will form a government. The perception of a DOOMSDAY COALITION is mirrored, so the ANC should accept being a minority government and negotiate the most reliable confidence and supply agreement.
I have (maybe naively) a very positive feeling about this next Parliament.
What happened to your research about Cape independence?
It’s refreshing to hear a data-based discussion. Particularly when compared with some very poor reporting elsewhere
G v O can call the UK election?
I WIIIISH you could get this report and analysis fully broadcast on SABC & other TV/radio stations (even if in summary), so that the Man-in-the-Street can get an informed and PROVABLE impression of the Election implications, instead of having POLITICAL ACTIVISTS' B*LLDUST incessantly thrown at them in massive efforts to DESTABILISE THE ENTIRE FUTURE GOVT of Our Beloved Country!!!!!!!!!😢❤😊
This is what I like.That the pool and the election agrees gives a me a bit of confidence in the result. Basically ignoring the naysayers implying rigging of the election.
Hi Alec You attend Davos regularly Will you be going to the BRICS summit in Russia? Our country is part of BRICS after all It will be nice if you did
You should dump your jingle
@dianeandrews6764
16 күн бұрын
It is probably the least irritating in my opinion. Some intros are 90secs and longer.
Please tell Gareth van Onselen that it is very uncomfortable watching him on the screen with his computer camera well bellow his face. Please lift it up to be level with your face. When he frequently rolls his eyes up to the ceiling it is even worse. It's so off putting that I can't focus on what he's saying.
@martindekock4719
15 күн бұрын
So if you don't see you cannot listen no radio for you then
👍DA no to position mongers yes to critical thinking and skills in government
By removing Ramaposa DA never win Mogoeng Mogoeng will replace 💯 %
the DA speaks a good game but lets look at how it treats its black candidates. is it a coincidence that a mediocre candidate like John is still in power but Musi was seen as a failure during his tenure. the treatment of black leaders within the DA is its worst PR campaign.
Steenhaisun used black females to speak on platforms were are they only saw you with her in the concourt in Western Cape sitting nect to her however only White's elected in seats in Parliament we now know how you want to rescue South Africa only with White's no blacks ,Coloureds or Indian's very bias keep up your good work
Steenhuizen low favourability.As a former DA voter I cannot vote for steenhuizen.He keeps on talking about their support base diversity but nothing into of leadership.Where is the black mayors like Geordie Hill Lewis ,where is the majority black MPs.How can you have a 65% DA white MPs when the white population is shrinking.So black people apply but somehow they just can't get past that final hurdle.You should be a 30% party with millions of black middle class voters instead of 800000 black voters .We can see trough your pretence of this diverse party.You will remain a 20% party unless you fundamentally change your white supramecy.Bottom line the DA holds the view that majority of public representatives should be white.Despitw the fact that the South African white population is down to 7% and shrinking.We see through you DA.
@myshepspud1
15 күн бұрын
Maybe because somehow it's the only place white people can be employed in politics. :). Same reason why there are many small businesses not supported by government that sometimes employ white people because no one else will. Yet no one speaks about that except the wrong end of the racism. Maybe in other parts of SA it's different in KZN it's the general reality. Most expect that small 7% to punch above their weight economically yet all these little sneaky laws to disenfranchise though and never directly supported by government like other citizens.. Seems a bit of a mismatch really.