Don't Make This Crucial Thinking Mistake
Survivorship bias refers to the idea that we get a false representation of reality when we base our understanding only on the experiences of those who live to tell their story. Taking a look at how we misrepresent shark attacks highlights how survivorship bias distorts reality in other situations.
It’s common to think the Great White Shark is the most dangerous shark for humans to encounter. Thanks to classic movies and news reports, The Great White has become a fear for many surfers, swimmers, and other ocean dwellers. But when you look at the actual data, there are many other sharks that are far more dangerous to humans than Great Whites.
In this video, we dive deeper into some shark attack stats to understand survivorship bias and learn how detrimental survivorship bias can be to our decision-making in every area of our life.
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About the topic: couple of months back our startup got to interview stage of YCombinator (last 0.3% of applicants, I believe). We did ~15 mock interviews with YC alums in preparation, but tanked it on the day, despite having prepared for 160 questions with 13 second, quantified answers, but not having adequately prepared for question #1 ("what are you building"). Immediately afterwards, it was clear to me I'd suffered from Survivorship Bias in only doing mock interviews with successful YC applicants - gave us a narrow, inaccurate perspective on how to succeed. Neither we nor the YC alums really knew the cause of their success. Without advice from the startups which didnt make it, we were flying with blind spots, unaware of the fact, harbouring a false sense of security. Survivorship Bias: killing opportunities since the dawn of abstract thought!
@griffin8708
2 жыл бұрын
This is fantastic to know! Thanks for sharing. This reminds me of my own faults in survivorship bias growing up as a kid, in only turning to those who've 'made it' in some field, growing up has taught me that probably everyone has something new to learn from. Great video for making an observation so clear!
This shift towards a vox-esque format is really interesting and makes a ton of sense. That being said, The choice of music kind of clashes a bit with the speaker’s voice/tempo to me. In other words, the fast paced orchestral violin stuff seems to rush the flow of information quite a bit. If the dialogue and music are both similarly intense, it’s hard for my ear to focus. Intuitively, I would suggest using music that is a bit slower and/or less intense for sections where the content is more dense and requires more attention. I’m really excited to see the fs team continue to iterate and grow on KZread!
@farnamstreet3661
2 жыл бұрын
Appreciate the feedback! - FS Team
Comments on the format: love it (especially for sharing with employees to introduce important concepts comprehensively). Pace of speech works well (prioritisation of clear enunciation suits faster playbook modes which ~everyone I shared this with uses). Music feels borderline melodramatic and overbearing. Overall awesome. Looking forward to more!
Brilliant perspective to filter information gathering in the decision-making process.
This is so insightful!
Nice that you stuck with sharks and didn't go with the usual WWII bomber story.
@farnamstreet3661
2 жыл бұрын
Thought about throwing that in.
A Japanese Sub shot down the USS Indianapolis? That's some Submarine, and some Destroyer
Great analysis. Malcolm Gladwell material.