CRITICAL THINKING - Fundamentals: Bayes' Theorem [HD]

In this Wireless Philosophy video, Ian Olasov (CUNY) introduces Bayes' Theorem of conditional probability, and the related Base Rate Fallacy.
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Пікірлер: 248

  • @mobile012
    @mobile0128 жыл бұрын

    Best simple presentation of Bayes' Theorem I've seen so far. Thanks for the video.

  • @anticorncob6
    @anticorncob66 жыл бұрын

    I prefer Baye’s theorem as P(A|B)*P(B)=P(B|A)*P(A) Easy to remember and symmetric. And it’s also helpful because sometimes it’s the conditional probability you’re solving for

  • @trs_4612

    @trs_4612

    4 жыл бұрын

    i can't start to imagine a venn diagrams with more than 5 circles. also think about conditional probability for that!!!

  • @ostihpem
    @ostihpem8 жыл бұрын

    Could u guys make two videos that explain Gödel's incompleteness theorems without too much details, but detailed enough to understand the idea?

  • @joejoe-lb6bw
    @joejoe-lb6bw2 жыл бұрын

    There are a lot of good Bayes videos out there with all the boxes and explanations. This one just cuts straight to the point and gives a very simple example that we can relate to. Excellent.

  • @Thetarget1
    @Thetarget18 жыл бұрын

    That was a really understandable example. Though terms like "P of H given E" and "P of E given H" mess up my head. WIll you be making a video on how this relates to the philosophy of science?

  • @austinlindsey3836
    @austinlindsey38365 жыл бұрын

    Have spent too much time searching for resources to break down and explain this theorem; this 6 minute video trumps all. Well done and thanks Ian.

  • @ahmed1800XY
    @ahmed1800XY Жыл бұрын

    The Best and most straightforward explanation that I have seen. There are so many videos out there...very confusing.

  • @WirelessPhilosophy

    @WirelessPhilosophy

    Жыл бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @bikefarmtaiwan1800
    @bikefarmtaiwan18007 жыл бұрын

    You did a great job of introducing this theory. You have the right talents to do well with these kinds of videos.

  • @samanthaeves2967
    @samanthaeves29678 жыл бұрын

    This was a fantastic video. I'm going to a CUNY school for undergrad and this video makes me proud of it :)

  • @daviddemar8749
    @daviddemar87496 жыл бұрын

    Omg! ian im an atty assistant to a nys supreme ct. Justice. I've never taken a probability/statistics class. My judge has a matter pending before him right now which amongst other science related topics, involves Bayesian probability. Well thanks to you and this amazing video [unlike others I've watched this week, fruitlessly ] I get it now, I get it now!!!!! You are now one of my heroes- a gold medalist MATHLETE. Thank you and good luck and much success in your studies and in all of your endeavors. 😊 now let's cure Hypothesitis!

  • @ridhikakhanna6383
    @ridhikakhanna63836 жыл бұрын

    Great Video!!! Have been struggling to understand this concept but you have made it simple and clear for me. Thank you so much!! :)

  • @BorisLikesBeer13
    @BorisLikesBeer138 жыл бұрын

    Very nice video, i recently went to a presentation about the power of evidence in criminal law and they used Bayes' Theorem to calculate the power of the evidence. Liked and subbed

  • @sukgihong4740
    @sukgihong47407 жыл бұрын

    I currently study entry-level data science, and this is reall helpful. Thanks a lot for the video. BTW, can you let me know what video editing tools did you use to make this?

  • @oliverfarrant3718
    @oliverfarrant37188 жыл бұрын

    Fantastic vid, Ian is great at explaining the concept

  • @kashifsmith4037
    @kashifsmith40377 жыл бұрын

    Great explanation, this video has been the most helpful to me all the vids on this topic I've seen and the video length is perfect too.

  • @rishisingh6111
    @rishisingh61112 жыл бұрын

    The BEST presentation of the concept I have seen so far; thanks a ton!

  • @MichaelGTadesse
    @MichaelGTadesse7 жыл бұрын

    Thanks a really informative and explanatory video for beginners in Bayes' Theorem! Keep up the good job

  • @galanoftaa6439
    @galanoftaa64397 жыл бұрын

    I've a bunch a videos online trying to explain Bayes Rules. This one is the best I've seen so far. If you guys have a problem with this video you should see some of the other stuff out there.

  • @-8l-924
    @-8l-9242 жыл бұрын

    this was excellent. I was reading a paper recently and it used P(E|H) with those letters representing Evidence and Hypothesis, just like this video uses, but I couldn't understand how to interpret that proposition. this was very helpful for that piece I happened to run into, let alone explaining the theorem itself.

  • @ericstevens653
    @ericstevens6535 жыл бұрын

    Beautiful video! Really helped me conceptualize what is actually going on here. Although I think I may have hypothesitis now.

  • @christianlibertarian5488
    @christianlibertarian54888 жыл бұрын

    Outstanding! Thanks for the help.

  • @hemm2333
    @hemm2333 Жыл бұрын

    After watching many videos on this concept and pulling my hair off, finally ended with this best explanation video. Thanks ❤

  • @WirelessPhilosophy

    @WirelessPhilosophy

    Жыл бұрын

    Glad it helped!

  • @svwingman7342
    @svwingman73427 жыл бұрын

    Great video and easy to understand explanation. Thank you for creating.

  • @simonzak1407
    @simonzak1407 Жыл бұрын

    Absolutely so cool. A tool looking specifically at the situation where we grant that we don’t know whether something is true.

  • @NirangaDeSilva
    @NirangaDeSilva7 жыл бұрын

    What will be the P(E | H) and P(E) values if we try out Sally and the flu example?

  • @Category_killer
    @Category_killer6 жыл бұрын

    Short but not an insufficient to understand Great lecture, simply wow teaching 👌👍

  • @cosmicwarriorx1
    @cosmicwarriorx17 жыл бұрын

    11 years after taking the IIT Entrance exam... finally, today I understood what it is.. thanks... 😂😁😊

  • @sandippatel5632
    @sandippatel56327 жыл бұрын

    great visuals and liked the simplicity of the explainations

  • @JustineCarissa
    @JustineCarissa8 жыл бұрын

    Excellent video! Thank you for breaking it down!!!

  • @jeffreybagwell4421
    @jeffreybagwell44217 жыл бұрын

    Thanks, that was admirably clear and concise!

  • @SS-da1onder
    @SS-da1onder3 жыл бұрын

    An awesome video, very clear and concise!

  • @IvanHindrawan
    @IvanHindrawan6 жыл бұрын

    my professor used this video !, wonderful

  • @sandyj342
    @sandyj3423 жыл бұрын

    Best explanation I have seen so far!

  • @ahmedaj2000
    @ahmedaj20004 жыл бұрын

    This made me comprehend it more, thank you!

  • @JanusKannuberg
    @JanusKannuberg8 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the clear explanation :)

  • @arj123sub
    @arj123sub4 жыл бұрын

    I believe I finally understand Bayes after this video!! Thanks

  • @teckyify
    @teckyify7 жыл бұрын

    Did you actually explained how the formula is derived? I can't see that, just plain "put you values inside this black box".

  • @spankymebottom
    @spankymebottom4 жыл бұрын

    ty. first video on the topic that didn't give me a headache

  • @jwalk121
    @jwalk1218 жыл бұрын

    critical thinking should be taught to children. as a child i ALWAYS searched for this, never found it. no teacher ever knew what i was asking for. there was no internet like it is now back then. it wasnt until after college i actually indulged in critical thinking and studying it. the world would be a much better place if children would understand these terms.

  • @jennifergreggs750
    @jennifergreggs7503 жыл бұрын

    Incredibly helpful - thank you!

  • @RafalSB
    @RafalSB5 жыл бұрын

    Excellent approach. Thank You!

  • @praneetjoshi8541
    @praneetjoshi85412 жыл бұрын

    That's a really good explanation. Thank you!

  • @equinoxhera5086
    @equinoxhera50867 жыл бұрын

    thanks for the vid. i need this for my demo teaching

  • @katrinajohnson2841
    @katrinajohnson28415 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the excellent explanation!

  • @sjysong
    @sjysong7 жыл бұрын

    thanks it is so insightful to know this theorem

  • @SoSoMikaela
    @SoSoMikaela6 жыл бұрын

    I always enjoy seeing how the logic that I use pretty much without realizing why can be broken down and explained so that other people who don't possess the same quality of innate faculties can have it explained to them.

  • @markerenberg3439
    @markerenberg34396 жыл бұрын

    This is a perfect explanation!

  • @timothyjamison8172
    @timothyjamison81728 жыл бұрын

    How is P(H) discovered? How do they know how common Hypothesitis is in the general population? Especially since no test for Hypothesitis is 100% accurate. Is the data collected via autopsies?

  • @joestudent7160
    @joestudent7160 Жыл бұрын

    thumbs up! short and effective intro to Bayes Theorem

  • @WirelessPhilosophy

    @WirelessPhilosophy

    Жыл бұрын

    Glad you liked it!

  • @ramanujamveda1928
    @ramanujamveda19287 жыл бұрын

    Found the video really useful Explanation was really good.

  • @harineemosur6530
    @harineemosur65307 жыл бұрын

    Beautifully done video

  • @anakoridze
    @anakoridze7 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the video.very well-explained.

  • @youtp007
    @youtp0074 жыл бұрын

    Really useful. Excellent video

  • @sarahpl2713
    @sarahpl27136 жыл бұрын

    Very well explained and clear thanks

  • @brightgardenentrepreneuria910
    @brightgardenentrepreneuria9106 жыл бұрын

    Great vid. Watch this vid after working through/with the multiplication rule of independence for at least a little bit.

  • @pantsharad
    @pantsharad7 жыл бұрын

    Thanks man, you very well explained it , thanks a lot.

  • 2 жыл бұрын

    Just awesome! Thanks a lot!

  • @p.z.8355
    @p.z.83557 жыл бұрын

    if the syntoms are cleary visible shoudnt p(e|h) be 1 ? if you see its very likely to get a dripy nose and headache shouldnt p(e) be high ?

  • @gzpo
    @gzpo8 жыл бұрын

    Very cool, thanks!

  • @abdurhamzah9951
    @abdurhamzah99514 жыл бұрын

    Thanks very much for fantastic explanation :)

  • @somasundaram5573
    @somasundaram55737 жыл бұрын

    Excellent and clear cut explanantion . Thanks

  • @anqidai940
    @anqidai9407 жыл бұрын

    This is great. Thank you!

  • @chetna1234
    @chetna12346 жыл бұрын

    You explained it really well ..

  • @ruvstof
    @ruvstof4 жыл бұрын

    Excelemt! it is the clearest explanation for me.

  • @brendantannam499
    @brendantannam4993 жыл бұрын

    That was terrific. Thank you very much!

  • @ocel12356
    @ocel123568 жыл бұрын

    Very good video!

  • @alwaysovercomingbear4809
    @alwaysovercomingbear48092 жыл бұрын

    This would be useful for society to remember this, right now!

  • @rachelannezaragoza5855
    @rachelannezaragoza58556 жыл бұрын

    First video I finally understood!!

  • @henryt.9821
    @henryt.98218 жыл бұрын

    Your handwriting is godly.

  • @ru_by_ru_by
    @ru_by_ru_by6 жыл бұрын

    Great video, thanks!

  • @KunalUpadhyay11
    @KunalUpadhyay117 жыл бұрын

    superb illustration....

  • @MrChatmoon
    @MrChatmoon2 жыл бұрын

    Excellent !!!

  • @VenkateshMogili
    @VenkateshMogili7 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for sharing, this is a nice video.....

  • @JATR1X
    @JATR1X7 жыл бұрын

    what if the resulting probability after the calculation is greater than one, is this valid?

  • @asddsa8203
    @asddsa82033 жыл бұрын

    This is amazing.

  • @navinkrishnan9419
    @navinkrishnan94195 жыл бұрын

    That was great thanks!

  • @nathanchoi3763
    @nathanchoi37636 жыл бұрын

    If it's the case that someone has a flu and recovered later on, or that someone has passed on the flu, or even the number of students will change as the time pass, can we say that probability is inaccurate? Is probability relates to judgement under closed and static conditions with prior sufficient knowledge? But if this is the case, how can we apply probability in the changing, unpredictable real world?

  • @SumitKumar-sp7ku
    @SumitKumar-sp7ku7 жыл бұрын

    awesome .. explanation take a bow

  • @ivancarlson953
    @ivancarlson9534 жыл бұрын

    If the P(H given E) = 0.00095, does that mean that (1-0.00095)=0.99905 is the P(not H given E) and thus, it's very unlikely that one has H given E, and very likely that one does not have H given E?

  • @6557myrs
    @6557myrs6 жыл бұрын

    fantastic video

  • @NIGHTMINER22
    @NIGHTMINER226 жыл бұрын

    What software did you use to create this?

  • @sstiles3601
    @sstiles36017 жыл бұрын

    I get it now! Thank you!

  • @muthuksubramanian4143
    @muthuksubramanian41436 жыл бұрын

    Great stuff . Couldn't have explained better (y)

  • @balamuruganrangaraj2402
    @balamuruganrangaraj24026 жыл бұрын

    Excellent, Thanks

  • @brandonhubah7278
    @brandonhubah72785 жыл бұрын

    this makes a lot of sense. thx

  • @2.0_two5
    @2.0_two54 жыл бұрын

    I have an exam in a matter of hours. You saved me! thank you:)

  • @promise7407

    @promise7407

    3 жыл бұрын

    How’d you do?

  • @2.0_two5

    @2.0_two5

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@promise7407 I did really well, thank you!!

  • @χπκ32
    @χπκ325 жыл бұрын

    Thank you!

  • @stephenschumacher7876
    @stephenschumacher78767 жыл бұрын

    I have to ask a question that will be phrased somewhat awkwardly, so excuse me. If we view P(AlB) as stated, "The probability of A so long as the probability of B is 1," could we likewise make a weighted version of such a function where likelihood of B is increased to a number, call it P(B') ----> P(A)lP(B')=P(AlB)(1-(P(B)-P(B'))? Have I made a mistake somewhere or does this exist to be true?

  • @iloveno3
    @iloveno36 жыл бұрын

    Excellent!

  • @selftaughtteam3372
    @selftaughtteam33725 жыл бұрын

    it's so cool , great explaination =))

  • @amdreallyfast
    @amdreallyfast6 жыл бұрын

    I don't know why, but something of the wording in this explanation made it click for me. I think that it was using the term "evidence" instead of event. In explanations that I've heard previously, I was confused why we were dividing by the probability of an event occurring when the problem setup said explicitly that we don't know how often it occurs. The term "evidence" made more sense.

  • @renzoriginalful
    @renzoriginalful8 жыл бұрын

    Thanks, nice video!

  • @anvarbeymuminov2785
    @anvarbeymuminov27856 жыл бұрын

    Nice man. God bless you

  • @brachio1000
    @brachio10007 жыл бұрын

    Excellent. Thanks.

  • @jeffreydavidgoldberg8696
    @jeffreydavidgoldberg86965 жыл бұрын

    i love the comments here.....very thought provoking

  • @PathakTutorials
    @PathakTutorials7 жыл бұрын

    wow ... good method to teach wireless philosophy.

  • @johnnewman3221
    @johnnewman32216 жыл бұрын

    super thala, kalakitenga, super good

  • @shashankdubey9839
    @shashankdubey98397 жыл бұрын

    amazing

  • @ForLorNVuLgaR
    @ForLorNVuLgaR8 жыл бұрын

    amazing!

  • @xiren5488
    @xiren54887 жыл бұрын

    very helpful, Cheers