How Bayes Theorem works

Ғылым және технология

Part of the End-to-End Machine Learning School Course 191, Selected Models and Methods at e2eml.school/191
A walk through a couple of Bayesian inference examples.
The blog: brohrer.github.io/how_bayesian...
The slides: docs.google.com/presentation/...
Follow me for announcements: / _brohrer_

Пікірлер: 405

  • @phytasea
    @phytasea7 жыл бұрын

    Wow best explanation and example ever I saw ^^ Fantastic.

  • @marciasola462

    @marciasola462

    5 жыл бұрын

    Excellent

  • @romanemul1

    @romanemul1

    2 ай бұрын

    exactly. These pacient disease examples were driving me nuts.

  • @welcome33333
    @welcome333337 жыл бұрын

    this is by far the most accessible explanation of Bayes theorem. Well done Brandon!

  • @danrattray8884
    @danrattray88847 жыл бұрын

    Best explanation of Bayes theorem I have seen. Fantastic teaching.

  • @nutrinogirl456
    @nutrinogirl4566 жыл бұрын

    This is the first time I've felt like I've actually understood this... and it's such a simple concept! Thank you!

  • @nginfrared
    @nginfrared7 жыл бұрын

    EXCELLENT EXPLANATION!!! I am learning graphical modeling and a lot of these concepts were a bit unclear to me. Examples given here are absolutely to the point and demystify a lot of concepts. Thank you and looking forward to more videos.

  • @toufikhamdani5044
    @toufikhamdani5044 Жыл бұрын

    This is the most accessible explanation about Bayesian Inference. Thank you Brandon for the time taken to prepare this video. You rock !

  • @rjvaal
    @rjvaal7 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for this excellent explanation. You are a patient and well-spoken teacher.

  • @jithunniks
    @jithunniks5 жыл бұрын

    The way you connect things with appropriate easy to examples...Amazing...

  • @kimnguyen1227
    @kimnguyen12276 жыл бұрын

    This is fantastic. Thank you so much! I have been exposed to BT before, but have never understood it. As sad as it sounds, I didn't realize it was composed of joint probability which is composed of conditional probability, and marginal probability. Conditional probability and joint probability, and Bayes theorem all just looked the same. This really helped clarify things for me.

  • @johneagle4384
    @johneagle4384 Жыл бұрын

    Great example! Very easy to follow and understand. On a side note: I showed your video to my students and some of them objected rather "emphatically". They said it was too sexist. Crazy times we live in....Instead of math and statistics, they wanted to discuss gender roles and stereotypes in a Stat class. Gosh!

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    Жыл бұрын

    Thanks John! I agree with your students. When I watch this now, I cringe. I definitely need to re-do it with a better example, one that doesn't reinforce outdated gender norms.

  • @johneagle4384

    @johneagle4384

    Жыл бұрын

    @@BrandonRohrer No....Please, do not follow the mad crowds... this an innocent, simple math example. People are getting crazy and finding excuses to feel offended and start meaningless fights!

  • @Terszel

    @Terszel

    5 ай бұрын

    So sad. Long hair and standing in the womens restroom line and we cant even use Bayes' thereom to assume its a woman 😂

  • @liucloud6317
    @liucloud63175 жыл бұрын

    I have viewed many explanations about Bayes rule but this is no doubt the best! Thanks Brandon

  • @syedmurtazaarshad3434
    @syedmurtazaarshad3434Ай бұрын

    Loved the analogies with real life philosophies, brilliant!

  • @amanjain3341
    @amanjain33417 жыл бұрын

    Thank you sooo much Brandon for explaining the concepts so clearly.

  • @SupremeSkeptic
    @SupremeSkeptic6 жыл бұрын

    Definitely the best explanation of the theorem told in an easily understandable way, I can find in the internet...

  • @fahad3802
    @fahad38027 жыл бұрын

    I have been struggling with bayesian inference and your tutorial makes it so easy to understand! Thank You! Keep up the good work.

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    7 жыл бұрын

    I'm very happy to hear it Fahad. Thanks.

  • @maxinelyu7875
    @maxinelyu78757 жыл бұрын

    when your teacher don't make sense, had to go through teaching videos online and came across this one... Lucky lucky lucky! Thank you Mr!

  • @SuperJg007
    @SuperJg0075 жыл бұрын

    Amazing. I already knew what Bayes theorem was, but you have an awesome intro to Bayes. Thanks for the video.

  • @SamuelShaw1986
    @SamuelShaw19866 жыл бұрын

    Great explanation and video lesson production. Best Bayesian lesson I've found on youtube

  • @yurysambale
    @yurysambale6 жыл бұрын

    Stop looking for a descent tutorial... this one is the best!

  • @Blooddarkstar
    @Blooddarkstar7 жыл бұрын

    This video deserves more thumbs up. I understood a lot on a lazy sunday evening :) great explaination.

  • @himanshu8006
    @himanshu80065 жыл бұрын

    I must say, this is the explanation of Bayes theorem, I have ever seen..... PERFECT!!!!!

  • @xxlolxx447
    @xxlolxx4476 жыл бұрын

    This was the best explanation of Bayes I've ever heard, I had such a hard time wrapping my head around it from other sources

  • @karthiksalian5715
    @karthiksalian57153 жыл бұрын

    Best video I found with all the information that I needed at one place. Thanks.

  • @shirshanyaroy287
    @shirshanyaroy2877 жыл бұрын

    Brandon I just want to tell you that you are a fantastic teacher.

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    7 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much Shirshanya. That is a huge compliment. I'm honored.

  • @shirshanyaroy287

    @shirshanyaroy287

    7 жыл бұрын

    Please make more statistics videos! I have suggested your channel to my biostat teacher.

  • @KunwarPratapSingh41951
    @KunwarPratapSingh419515 жыл бұрын

    I was looking for intuitive content to introduce me about essence of Bayes theorem in statistics, thanks for this. Luckily I found your blog about machine learning and robotics. That's all what I wanted under a roof, robotics, data science and machine learning.

  • @theinsanify7802
    @theinsanify78025 жыл бұрын

    i don't know what to say, i'm a computer science student and i have never seen an explanation better than this ... thank you veryyyyy much

  • @raghurrai
    @raghurrai6 жыл бұрын

    I wish everyone taught like this. Your presentation was awesome. Thank you

  • @razvanastrenie1455
    @razvanastrenie14553 жыл бұрын

    Excellent explanation ! This is the manner in which mathematics must be explained. With cases of practical applicability. Good job mr. Brandon !

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Razvan. I'm so happy you enjoyed it.

  • @joshuafancher3111
    @joshuafancher31116 жыл бұрын

    Excellent explanation. At the 15:20 and beyond is when everything really started to come together. Also thanks for deriving the formula at the 7:10 mark.

  • @sreekanthk2911
    @sreekanthk29115 жыл бұрын

    I have been searching for explanation like this for sometime and a big WOW to this guy. Wonderful explanation!!

  • @regozs
    @regozs4 жыл бұрын

    This is the best explanation yet, it helped me get a greater intuitive sense of Bayesian inferences.

  • @brendawilliams8062

    @brendawilliams8062

    2 жыл бұрын

    Yes it was great. It seems running into Feigenbaum maths or simular

  • @EANTYcrown
    @EANTYcrown6 жыл бұрын

    hands down best explanation i've seen, thank you

  • @PietchRhum
    @PietchRhum7 жыл бұрын

    You're very good at explaining and also you go in some details which is nice. Too often youtube tutorials are too simple. keep going.

  • @keokawasaki7833

    @keokawasaki7833

    5 жыл бұрын

    now that you have said that (an year ago), i kinda feel like finding the probability of likelihood of a youtuber making too simple tutorials!

  • @mariorodriguesperes1501
    @mariorodriguesperes15015 жыл бұрын

    Great video!! Very nice and easy to digest explanation of Bayes theorem! Thank you very much for sharing this excellent material. I have got a better understanding on how to apply it to my problems. Keep the great work!

  • @claudiorio
    @claudiorio3 жыл бұрын

    I know the video is old but I have to agree with the pinned comment. I already knew Bayes Theorem buy as I don't use it often, I have to be constantly refreshing the details in my mind. KZread algorithm recommended this video and it's hands down the best I have ever watched.

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you. I really appreciate that.

  • @mariamedrano4348
    @mariamedrano43486 жыл бұрын

    Excellent examples and explanation! Now everything is so much clearer. :)

  • @rameshmaddali6208
    @rameshmaddali62084 жыл бұрын

    For 5 years i kept Bayes aside , you are the guru in teaching stuff.. God bless you Brandon

  • @redserpent
    @redserpent5 жыл бұрын

    Thank you. Your video has been of great help. I have tried different resources to wrap my head around Bayesian theorem and always got knocked out at the front door. Excellent expalnation

  • @houssemguidara4467
    @houssemguidara44674 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the video, it helped me understand the concept of Bayesian inference. The concept is simple. In a nutshell, you have an idea about what the quantity is and then you use the measurements to sharpen your assumption.

  • @jacktretton7815
    @jacktretton78153 жыл бұрын

    best explanation I found on the topic so far. great work!!!

  • @eunicepark6860
    @eunicepark68606 жыл бұрын

    Terrific examples and terrific explanation down to such applicable quotes!

  • @eyesonthetube
    @eyesonthetube5 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the excellent video. A good refresher! Keep up the good work!

  • @taghreedalghamdi6812
    @taghreedalghamdi68124 жыл бұрын

    I was reading about Bayes Theory for months ! And this is the first time I understand the concept!! Wow!! such an amazing way of teaching!!

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    4 жыл бұрын

    I'm so happy to hear it Taghreed. That was exactly my hope.

  • @lenkapenka6976
    @lenkapenka69762 жыл бұрын

    Superb lecture - esp. the MLE explanation!

  • @s45510325
    @s455103256 жыл бұрын

    the best explanation I ever seen! Super clear.

  • @ssundaraju
    @ssundaraju4 жыл бұрын

    Great explanation and simplification of a difficult concept. The three quotations at the end are poetic and purposeful. Thanks

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    4 жыл бұрын

    I found them surprising relevant too. Thanks Sridhar.

  • @balasubramanianilangovan888
    @balasubramanianilangovan8884 жыл бұрын

    Hi Brandon, your video was simple, superb, and stupendous!

  • @dalelu9422
    @dalelu94226 жыл бұрын

    Simply the best ! Thank you Brandon

  • @bharathwajan6079
    @bharathwajan607911 ай бұрын

    hey man,this is the one good explanation for conditional prob i had ever heard

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    11 ай бұрын

    Thanks!

  • @kunliu4349
    @kunliu43495 жыл бұрын

    Amazing videos! Thank you for making my day easier.

  • @Nifty-Stuff
    @Nifty-Stuff Жыл бұрын

    Absolutely brilliant! Your presentation, examples, etc. were perfect and applicable! Thanks!

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much :)

  • @billgiles9662
    @billgiles96626 жыл бұрын

    Brandon, GREAT explanations!! I am taking a "Math for Data Sciences" class and have been flying through it until the final week and "Bayes Theorem". Achk...... It was poorly explained and very confusing. I was going to drop the class as I just couldn't get it. After watching your KZread explanation I am excited about the possibilities and understand the way it works - cool stuff! Thank you for all you do!!!

  • @robertoarce-tx8yt
    @robertoarce-tx8yt11 ай бұрын

    this was very intuitive explanation, man do more!

  • @divyagurumoorthy3354
    @divyagurumoorthy33545 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much. The way you put it is really nice and easily understandable, yet conveys the concept. :)

  • @Atoyanable
    @Atoyanable2 жыл бұрын

    such a well-thought -through video, very good explanations for every instance, the ending was the bonus, loved it, thank you

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you Lilit! I appreciate that.

  • @WilliamHarbert69
    @WilliamHarbert697 жыл бұрын

    Bravo! Wonderful presentation. Thank you for this presentation.

  • @kirankk9565
    @kirankk95657 жыл бұрын

    the best explanation i hv seen about bayes theorem... awsome... thnx a ton....

  • @lemyul
    @lemyul4 жыл бұрын

    i like the quotes you put at the end and how you reword them

  • @Erin-uk2jj
    @Erin-uk2jj2 жыл бұрын

    Brandon, this was great, thank you. Very easy to follow and really interesting and concise!

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Erin!

  • @Skachmo1
    @Skachmo16 жыл бұрын

    There are never lines at the men's room.

  • @selamysfendegu8239

    @selamysfendegu8239

    5 жыл бұрын

    haha.

  • @dinikosama

    @dinikosama

    5 жыл бұрын

    lol

  • @Beebo

    @Beebo

    4 жыл бұрын

    Unless it's cocaine.

  • @masterpogi1818

    @masterpogi1818

    3 жыл бұрын

    So the probability of this sample being true is 0%, hahhaha

  • @dhanushram6137

    @dhanushram6137

    3 жыл бұрын

    You have never been to developer conferences :)

  • @capuleto126
    @capuleto1266 жыл бұрын

    Thanks, very well explained, the charts are also very well prepared.

  • @specialkender
    @specialkender4 жыл бұрын

    GOD THANKS FOR EXISTING. Finally somebody that fucking breaks down the most important part of it (namely, how the do you calculate the likelyhood in practice). I hope life rewards you beautifully.

  • @bga9388
    @bga93886 ай бұрын

    Thank you for this excellent presentation!

  • @Qarout2021
    @Qarout20216 жыл бұрын

    Really I want to thank you so much the best thing that I have ever heard about Bayesian. you have illustrated everything and simplify the method for me regards

  • @ukktor
    @ukktor6 жыл бұрын

    The knowledge that Bayes was a theologian and that his theory requires at least some belief or faith in improbable things earns a "Well played, Mr. Bayes" slow clap. I've been enjoying your videos Brandon, thanks for keeping things approachable!

  • @themennoniteatheist1255

    @themennoniteatheist1255

    2 жыл бұрын

    I’m not sure that Bayesian epistemology requires a belief in improbable things. I love this video, but I think that’s an overstatement. I do think that it requires us to be open to the possibility that improbable things may be true. It does not require me to have faith in anything improbable, but rather to proportion our beliefs to the evidence (probabilities)- which is the antithesis of faith-while accepting the possibility of being wrong. To accept something as true that is improbable… is intellectually irresponsible and lacks due caution and humility. But to withhold belief (proportionally to the evidence) from improbable things is intellectually responsible and does not exclude being open to surprise-to the possibility that something improbable is true. I don’t think Bayesian epistemology intrinsically expects you to hold as true some improbable thing (faith). Abstinence from faith is acceptable in all cases as long as the possibility of error is operative. This suggestion that it’s necessary in Bayesian epistemology to believe something that is improbable was the only sloppy part of the video, no? I’m open to correction…

  • @ahmedemadsamy4244

    @ahmedemadsamy4244

    Жыл бұрын

    I think you guys got it the opposite way, the video was trying to say, be open to believe in the improbable things that come from the data (evidence), rather than only holding on a prior belief.

  • @dmhowe2001
    @dmhowe20016 жыл бұрын

    I thought this was not only a great example of Bayes but also a nice intro for Cox's Theorem. Nice jobQ

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    6 жыл бұрын

    * quickly looks up Cox's Theorem * Why, yes it does Donna. Thank you! :)

  • @xiandongqi7997
    @xiandongqi79977 жыл бұрын

    hope you can do more videos!!! you are the best teacher!

  • @StephenHsiang
    @StephenHsiang6 жыл бұрын

    best explanation on youtube so far

  • @mathiasmews1122
    @mathiasmews11223 жыл бұрын

    You're so much better than my Statistics teacher, thank you so much for this explanation!

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Mathias!

  • @mia23
    @mia235 жыл бұрын

    Wow... amazing. You’re a great teacher!

  • @priyanshagarwal1581
    @priyanshagarwal15816 жыл бұрын

    Lovely Explanation! Thanks a lot Brandon Rohrer

  • @gautamjain2487
    @gautamjain24875 жыл бұрын

    Nothing much to say only thank you! you may have helped me in clearing my exam!

  • @nika_cm
    @nika_cm7 жыл бұрын

    This helped me immensely, thank you so much!!

  • @wysiwyg2489
    @wysiwyg24896 жыл бұрын

    I believe you don't know much about statistics (the impossible thing), but I do believe you really know how to explain Bayesian Inference. Great video.

  • @maayan1987
    @maayan19876 жыл бұрын

    I loved the Mark Twain citation in the end! Great video thanks! However I have one question, do you assume normal distributions of the likelihood? Why so?

  • @taureanamir
    @taureanamir5 жыл бұрын

    absolutely amazing explanation

  • @WahranRai
    @WahranRai3 жыл бұрын

    0:40 Bayes wrote 2 books one about theology and one about probabilty. He planed to write a third book infering the existence / non existence of God with probability (likelihood distribution = humanity, Prior distribution= miracles !

  • @AnasHawasli
    @AnasHawasli6 ай бұрын

    The best explaination on youtube thank you man

  • @Daniboy370
    @Daniboy37010 ай бұрын

    What a stunning explanation. Speechless

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    10 ай бұрын

    💜 🧡 🖤 💚 🤎 💛 💙

  • @williamliamsmith4923
    @williamliamsmith49237 ай бұрын

    Amazing explanation and graphics!

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    6 ай бұрын

    Thanks!

  • @joserobertopacheco298
    @joserobertopacheco2982 жыл бұрын

    I am from Brazil. What a fantastic explanation!

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Jose! Welcome to the channel

  • @evgenykriukov4239
    @evgenykriukov42396 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for excellent presentation! One question though: at 17:49 the P(m=[13.9, 14.1, 17.5]|w=17) is factorized as following: P(w=17|m=[13.9, 14.1, 17.5]) = P(m=[13.9, 14.1, 17.5]|w=17) = P(m=13.9|w=17) * P(m=14.1|w=17) * P(m=17.5|w=17) then at 20:47 the P(m=[13.9, 14.1, 17.5]|w=17) * P(w=17) is expanded into: P(w=17|m=[13.9, 14.1, 17.5]) = P(m=[13.9, 14.1, 17.5]|w=17) * P(w=17) = P(m=13.9|w=17) * P(w=17) * P(m=14.1|w=17) * P(w=17) * P(m=17.5|w=17) * P(w=17) how do you get that P(m=[13.9, 14.1, 17.5]|w=17) * P(w=17) is equal to P(m=13.9|w=17) * P(m=14.1|w=17) * P(m=17.5|w=17) * P(w=17)^3 ? Thx in advance!

  • @keokawasaki7833

    @keokawasaki7833

    5 жыл бұрын

    i hate stats because of those things... my teacher was teaching us utility analysis, and says "satisfaction is measured in utils" to that i ask "tell me how satisfied are you with your job and answer in the form: n-utils...". i still haven't got an answer!

  • @mohamedanasselyamani4323
    @mohamedanasselyamani43234 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much for the best explanation, It's very interesting

  • @missh1774
    @missh1774 Жыл бұрын

    Start with more slides like your last two. Thanks this was insightful.

  • @jonathanrodrick7319
    @jonathanrodrick73194 жыл бұрын

    Great video - this really helped a lot. Thank you so much.

  • @cliffordhodge1449
    @cliffordhodge14495 жыл бұрын

    I found this quite helpful in giving Bayesian probability a more intuitive appeal. Bayes idea had previously been presented to me as "a priori probability", and I had always been troubled by the a priori part. But I guess a good way to think about it is like this: When we say, "All else, being equal, such-and-such is the case," we mean (or ought to mean) "Assuming that the variables which we have not measured or aren't even aware of have the values they most likely have when our one measured variable has the value measured or assumed by us, then such-and-such is most likely the case."

  • @MonsieurSchue
    @MonsieurSchue10 ай бұрын

    Wow can't believe I only came across this video now. This is by far the best explanation on Bayes with great examples! Thanks @BrandonRohrer !! Love the example with the weight of puppy! May I ask if you have codes to deal with multiple priors/ multiple events? Say such as an extension of the weight of the puppy, if the weight change is more than one pound, plus she may be showing some other symptoms (say losing appetite), the likelihood of her being sick from something is x. Or even, losing appetite can be just due to weather being too hot. So the lost of weight of one pound from the last vet visit and losing appetite may not be significant at all and doesn't warrant multiple expensive test suggested by the vet.

  • @riderblack6401
    @riderblack64016 жыл бұрын

    The best video about Bayes! Thumb up

  • @hadyaasghar7680
    @hadyaasghar76806 жыл бұрын

    great video presentation Brandon. please try to apply more videos on other machine learning algorithms

  • @KazaaModo
    @KazaaModo2 жыл бұрын

    That was fantastically done.

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you :)

  • @julianjohnmert8658
    @julianjohnmert86583 жыл бұрын

    Dude your analogies are on point.

  • @BrandonRohrer

    @BrandonRohrer

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Julian

  • @phuonghoagiang8067
    @phuonghoagiang80675 жыл бұрын

    Just wanna say this is amazing. Thanks for sharing.

  • @yavdhesh
    @yavdhesh6 жыл бұрын

    Superb explanation Sir

  • @yltsai7863
    @yltsai78634 жыл бұрын

    Really fantastic teaching! Thanks!

  • @ilanaizelman3993
    @ilanaizelman39934 жыл бұрын

    You deserve many more subscribers dude

  • @ComtoInterim
    @ComtoInterim7 ай бұрын

    Thank you so much for excellent explanation

  • @briarsmith7831
    @briarsmith78316 жыл бұрын

    Wow that was an amazing explanation! Thank you 😊

  • @emilianomazzoli2421
    @emilianomazzoli24212 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Brandon! This was very clear and useful. :)

  • @karelblahna5488
    @karelblahna54882 жыл бұрын

    Excellent presentation👍

  • @hamzalabbaci5939
    @hamzalabbaci59397 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much Brandon for this great lecture !! I was crawling the Web looking for a clear explanation of the topic and your lecture was the best by far. I have just a question, please how did you simplify the formula at 16.47? Is it because we don't assume any prior that we can remove it ? What about the marginal probability you also removed ? I wanna actually start working on deep learning, precisely deep Bayesian networks, variational inference, autoencoders.. Please is there any materiel you suggest ? Thanks

  • @panagiotisanastasakis7908

    @panagiotisanastasakis7908

    2 жыл бұрын

    did you start working with any of those things eventually?

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