A climate research group CICERO from Oslo Norway (Center for International Climate Research) recently published a paper showing that the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) has increased significantly from 2001 to now, and attributes this increase to reduction of sulphur emissions. This paper importantly confirms the recent work and letters of James Hansen and his research team. New paper press release: Cleanup of air pollution heats the Earth cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/cleanup-of-air-pollution-heats-the-earth “Recent reductions in emissions of tiny particles, the major cause of air pollution globally, have led to more heat in the Earth’s climate system. This is shown in a new international study led by CICERO and published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment.” “Satellite measurements clearly show that more heat is entering the Earth’s atmosphere from the Sun compared to the amount of terrestrial energy escaping to space. This so-called Earth energy imbalance leads to accumulation of heat and warming of the Earth’s surface. It is well known that man-made emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have been the major cause of global warming in recent decades, and that emissions of particles have masked part of this warming. Most of the particles, especially sulphate, reflect sunlight and therefore act to cool the planet. In the last couple of decades, however, this cooling effect has reversed and now contributes to a warming due to extensive measures to improve air quality in many regions worldwide.” Peer-reviewed scientific paper: Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01324-8.pdf “Abstract The Earth’s energy imbalance is the net radiative flux at the top-of-atmosphere. Climate model simulations suggest that the observed positive imbalance trend in the previous two decades is inconsistent with internal variability alone and caused by anthropogenic forcing and the resulting climate system response. Here, we investigate anthropogenic contributions to the imbalance trend using climate models forced with observed sea-surface temperatures. We find that the effective radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions has led to a 0.2 ± 0.1 W m−2 decade−1 strengthening of the 2001-2019 imbalance trend. The multi-model ensemble reproduces the observed imbalance trend of 0.47 ± 0.17 W m−2 decade−1 but with 10-40% underestimation. With most future scenarios showing further rapid reductions of aerosol emissions due to air quality legislation, such emission reductions may continue to strengthen Earth’s energy imbalance, on top of the greenhouse gas contribution. Consequently, we may expect an accelerated surface temperature warming in this decade.” Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

@graemeguy341

2 ай бұрын

Thx Paul Good to have this metric explained and clarified Noticed on Google news feed a feature on a secret geo engineering trial in America? to seed the atmosphere with salt crystals....suggests somewhere someone is listening

@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885

Ай бұрын

"In fact, the four models participating with AERO2000 simulate that the ERF due to changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions over the recent two decades, in which several regions have reduced aerosol emissions due to air quality legislation, have led to an approximate doubling of the EEI trend (Fig. 1a, b)" Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance

Many thanks Paul ..Great breakdown on this paper that just reinforces that James Hensen knows what he's talking about and knows his stuff...And everybody better start paying attention!!

We are in a box of our own making. Our pollution - that is causing warming - is also mitigating some of that warming. Continue to polute and we cook. Clean up the pollution and we cook faster. No-one wants to hear this so we'll just continue to deny reality even as the environment fails and our civilisation comes apart. We are living in the movie Don't Look Up.

@unbiasedthoughts7875

2 ай бұрын

DeNial River is beautiful. The majority of humanity visits it daily.

Very important message you are sharing, Paul. Many thanks for all your videos. 👍

Thank you Paul

When one goes far enough back in time to include the EEI for the 20th Century, EEI forms a "hockey stick" graph. In the 1st quarter of the 20th Century, the 25 calendar years from 1901 to 1925, EEI was on average very close to 0 watts per square meter. In fact, as a whole, the EEI for the entire 5,900-year time span for the years from 3975 BCE to 1925 CE averaged very close to an EEI of 0 watts per square meter. Toward the of that 5,900 year time span, sea level was about 4 meters higher than at the beginning, indicating some heat energy had gone into melting some ice. However, air temperature and sea surface temperature were slightly cooler, indicating that much of the heat that melted that ice had come from excess heat that had been in the top 800 meters of the ocean and had been in the atmosphere. Overall during that 5,900-year time frame, Earth's energy imbalance had therefore averaged very close to 0 watts per square meter. However, now in the 2020s, Earth's energy imbalance is about 2 watts per square meter. EEI has thus, like many other climate change metrics, formed a classic "hockey stick" curve. So much has changed in the 100 or so years that have passed since the year 1925.

Paul, how soon do you think we will see SRM techniques deployed? It’s nice to see James Hansen’s work corroborated by other scientists.

@goodenough22

2 ай бұрын

Started the process 76 years ago. Look up patents on geoengineering and learn

@physiqueDrummond

2 ай бұрын

indeed, MEER, MEER, MEER!

@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885

Ай бұрын

the problem is CO2 being 100 times faster emission rate than normal. Algae is 1% of land biomass but is 50% of Earth's photosynthesis. Oil comes from algae. Algae in the deep oceans can be created by fake whale feces fertilization - volcanic ash - and algae can be grown in near ocean farms - algae can also treat wastewater and algae can be grown for food. Algae can thus sequester 100 gigatons per year of CO2 while algae can feed and fertilize and fuel human civilization. Algae also emits its own aerosol masking effect as Jim Massa has emphasized. Stick with ecology - forget the technofix b.s.

Thank you Paul. In reality the imbalancce has been growing since 1970. If you calculate the temperature contributions due to CO2 and to sulphur you get an interesting result. If sulphur emissions had not been cut, but instead continued as a straight line trend extrapolation of 1950 to 1970 emission, there would now be ZERO increase in temperature since 1970. And that is emissions from mainly close to the surface. If instead you consider emissions in the stratosphere, you can calculate that Concorde was contributing about 29 times as much cooling due to the sulphur it emitted, than the warming due to CO2 it emitted. We urgently need to recognise this reality, and just get on with solar geoengineering. Subsonic aircraft do not really fly high enough. There are several projects developing supersonic aircraft at the moment. These need proper funding because they can contribute significantly to global cooling. It would not take very many such aircraft. About 100 flights per day of a Concorde equivalent to cancel out the entire warming due to CO2. Compared to about 90,000 flights per day of subsonic aircraft, this is an extremely small number. Temperature is an astonishing 5 or 6 orders of magnitude more sensitive to sulphur in the stratosphere than to CO2. Also CO2 is close to saturation, whereas sulphur is a long way from saturation. i.e. doubling CO2 would not anywhere near double its contribution to temperature rise, whereas doubling sulphur would nearly double its cooling. If we did cut CO2 rapidly, (suppose someone invented CCS that actually worked effectively) there would be a crash in crop yields and billions of people would die from starvation.

@user-ym5hx6ky2m

2 ай бұрын

Will supersonic aircraft ameliorate the accelerating mass extinction event? No. I think that clutching at straws at the eve of destruction in nowhere, man.

@goodenough22

2 ай бұрын

Are you blind or stupid. Geoengineering has been happening globally for over 75 years now

Hi Paul, please can you consider doing a video on Michael E. Mann and others criticism of Hansen's EEI work? It will help illuminate the issue. I think Mann also argues that surface temperature, not atmospheric temperature, is more important in terms of global heating. Any views?

Isn't communication supposed to be one of the best abilities of humans? So why is it so hard to get the shipping industry to acknowledge that reducing Sulphur emissions is accelerating surface warming? We live in a world that continues to be separated by its parts, making it difficult to get consensus. That needs to change.

Fortunately, electric vehicles will still give off tire rubber and brake dust.

@kti5682

2 ай бұрын

Also there were some large amounts of Sahara dust available over here.

Maybe we can install a GIANT heatsink.

Jim Massa disagrees with these findings, and I have wholeheartedly support Jim. Jim says the EEI doesn't take into account OHC. Leon Simons showed us his graph before his presser and it clearly showed warming from 2010 on, even though the aerosol effect didn't start until 2020. Even in the Pipeline news conference, James said that the heating was from 2010 when he commented on Leons' graph. And then Leon started on a twitter rant with a supposed warning about aerosols by the CEO of Shell in 1968. He predicted global cooling with the burning of fossil fuels. I asked Leon if that was true, how did the oceans absorb so much heat? He's never answered that question and blocked me. I think this is being pushed by atmospheric scientists with no communication with oceanographers. And Big Oil loves this since the "solution" is to make bunker fuel even dirtier.

Question is what would EEI be if we magically moved CO2 back to 375ppm. I doubt if it would reduce EEI that much, certainly would not make it go negative which is what you would need to cool the planet. Not that we’re ever going to cut CO2 concentration or even slow future increases.

@antoineroquentin2297

2 ай бұрын

Prof Hansen wrote that the additional absorption is equal to additional >100 ppm CO2.

We have drought in the Amazon and the Mekong Delta meanwhile we have flooding in Australia and the Orenburg region of Siberia (caused by torrential rain and unprecedented levels of *meltwater* )

Why we don't have data for each month, in a such important matter, so we can have more smooth and accurate curves? Thanks!

aerosols are the geoengineering option the world will attempt when climate change becomes more critical existential issue. I expect the concept of nuke winter will be introduced and ??

@Nhoj737

Ай бұрын

"For those people who do not know what is going to happen in the next few years, the vast majority of filthy rich Republicans have built underground shelters stocked with food and water as well as lots of alcohol to party with. They do not intend to stay underground for long, as they plan on using Nuclear Weapons to blast Dirt, Dust and Sulfur from dormant volcanoes at high latitudes such as from the Aleutian Islands and mainland Alaska. I have never heard of any mention of Russian Volcanoes. I have been told by others that volcanos at the southern tip of South America may also be used. The Dirt, Dust and Sulfur will create a nuclear winter that will last 14 to 16 months, last I heard. The Rich will come out of their shelters anytime during the Nuclear Winter, though it would be best to stay underground for at least a few days after the modern Nuclear Bomb Blasts in the dormant volcanoes. Since the modern Nukes are Fusion weapons as opposed to mainly Fission weapons as tested and used during and after WWII, the radiation intensity should be abated within a week or so. Meanwhile, the people who do not have shelters will gradually die from the cold and the Republican goal of reducing global population to below half a billion as specified on the Georgia Guidestones (Preferably less than 300 million people as the Rich Republicans now tell me) will become a reality. When the Nuclear Winter wanes, green life will start growing abundantly. The tremendous Green Growth will suck a lot of CO2 out of the atmosphere. Since factories will not be in operation CO2 generation from industry will be a thing of memory. With Billions of people and animals gone, the release of CO2 from animals will also greatly decrease. The Nuclear Winter will have slowed down the release of methane from the melting permafrost. With CO2 decreasing and Methane slowing in its release rate from the permafrost, the climate will come back down to temperatures that were common 20 years ago. Slowly, temperatures will go down to levels from a century ago. No factories and few people and large animal herds will be gone. If you are a Rich Republican you will rejoice at your good fortune. If you are not rich but alive, the Republicans might enslave you for manual labor, but do not expect any favors. You will just be slave labor and expendable at any time."? facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/pfbid0wnUafnUWoNc75znbRfh7NJnkqUv3iUnV8iwjFTLueMNyV672V11ipzZxPAmntiWxl

Take mirrors and reflect it yourself back to universe. Homemade MEER project seems to me to be the easiest way, how to fix this. No country, no goverment, no parliements... most of people don't care at all....😢 hope rising prices of cocoa will wake up at least those, who are addicted to chocolate...

Sorry..I can't hear you even with everything turned up as loud as possible..

Thanks Paul

If you care about other animals, please consider not eating them. Risk of death from cancer, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, infections, kidney disease, liver disease and lung disease all increase with the amount of meat consumed. - National Cancer Institute

"Doomed" MGK

A long hard road to a new world is not no road. I am not saying it will be easy, but it will be.😢

- We live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago - I have an explanation regarding the cause of the climate change and global warming, it is the travel of the universe to the deep past since May 10, 2010. Each day starting May 10, 2010 takes us one thousand years to the past of the universe. Today, April 06, 2024, the state of our universe is the same as it was 5 million and 80 thousand years ago. On october 13, 2026 the state of our universe will be at the point 6 million years in the past. On june 04, 2051 the state of our universe will be at the point 15 million in the past. On june 28, 2092 the state of our universe will be at the point 30 million years in the past. On april 02, 2147 the state of our universe will be at the point 50 million years in the past. Mohamed BOUHAMIDA.

🌳🦌

Paul...Remember in grade school when you had to wait and listen patiently while your classmate read the passage assigned to them, and you read ahead of that passage in utter boredom? That's a little like you reading these articles at us. I'm reading ahead of where you are. I can read. I don't need you to read the article. What I'm looking for is for you to apply your specialized knowledge to explain all this to lay people. In other words, as I've said before, prepare your materials and literature ahead of making the video, so that you present it in a conversational style, not read the article in that droning voice. The level of knowledge you have is not featured by the formatting of your videos. Stop reading the article at us. TALK about it. Then bring in bits of the article or show the graphs etc and DESCRIBE and explain.

@user-ym5hx6ky2m

2 ай бұрын

Why don't you start your own channel, coach.

@xxogierschundco3528

2 ай бұрын

Disagree. Love his way

@graemeguy341

2 ай бұрын

I think you have a point as I thought the same when initially discovering his work...but I've kinda got used to it. Paul why not change your approach and see if it enhances your product and gets more subscribers

@Je-Lia

2 ай бұрын

@@graemeguy341 yeah, what he's presenting is great, and it needs to get out there much more. Just wish he'd update his format.

Another dodgy study, done by dodgy scientists Using dodgy computer modelling All for dodgy grant's He who pays the piper calls the tune Science4cash

Yeah the earth is imbalanced and there’s nothing anyone can do to fix it.

@langdons2848

2 ай бұрын

This really is the whole thing. Regardless of what *might* be possible, we have no way of actually making it happen. Heating will continue (and accelerate) and we will all suffer the consequences.

@rdallas81

2 ай бұрын

​@@langdons2848well, we can be using this calm time.to prepare for the coming downfall. It's coming.

@rdallas81

2 ай бұрын

​@@langdons2848prepare for the most rapidly changing times ever.

@rdallas81

2 ай бұрын

Flee the cities, gather seeds and move away from coastlines. Imagine how things were in covid on steroids. When these things take place they will be biblical in scale and magnitude.

@chain8847

2 ай бұрын

The MEER reflection project would work. If governments would only invest in it.