As soon as someone makes an economic prediction that something will happen with certainty in x days… you know they’re either lying or they’re stupid.

@fofororo2070

Жыл бұрын

Western psychological warfare has not developed over the last few decades.

@aps-c1766

Жыл бұрын

I never full 100% believe everything in youtube.

@marvelcomiks8078

Жыл бұрын

No, they usually go missing or just keep silent. At least this gentleman had the integrity to appear again and make more predictions. :). If you ask me what is going to happen to China...I'll say its going to be economic winter for them for an extended period of time but its not collapse. The country is large enough for self sustenance even if the whole world does zero trade with them. The one that is going to collapse is America and she will break out again by waging wars on others. Americans need to control their leaders (especially the horrible and shameless Liberal Democrats) before something catastrophic breaks out.

@frenchyfries3551

Жыл бұрын

corporate media pushing market crash narrative cuz shorts way over-leveraged and need low prices to close positions. theres a lack of pristine collateral to satisfy these obligations, basically any real asset. dont get tricked into selling your stocks, dont fall for it

@BWAC

Жыл бұрын

I will be broke in 23.5 days

I love this guy for taking the “boring” approach on topics. It is often the right approach.

@ironbooze2937

Жыл бұрын

Yes, even seen some people say they get censored by YT because they couldn't fully! monetize their videos after showing clips with violence in China. Clickbait generating money is what their interested in, nothing more.

@a84334656

Жыл бұрын

Perfect bedtime story

@andehhhhhhh

Жыл бұрын

The truth about what’s going on is often more interesting than some made up sensationalist nonsense

@gilgamesh310

Жыл бұрын

It’s a refreshing change compared to clickbait fucks like Moon.

@haparcheledupwar

Жыл бұрын

Lol a PRO-China KZreadr AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

If I get a $1 for every Western report hoping for China collapsing, I'd be millionaire by now.

There aren’t many KZreadrs out there that act in good faith and are responsible with the information they put out. Thank you for talking about this and many other topics in a responsible and sensible manner. For the guys who make videos for the sake of click baiting us you can only win once. Please keep doing what you doing….your knowledge and perspective on many of these issues are quire appreciated!!!

@Sinehmatic

Жыл бұрын

The problem is that youtube incentivises being sensational, clickbaity and just generally disincentives acting in good faith

@mitchellhawkes22

Жыл бұрын

Yeah, that's what we need. "Sensible" commentary on a country that is opaque, murders its own people, and wants to take over the world as its economy goes in hyper-reverse. Let's give China the benefit of the doubt. Or not.

@Kid_Ikaris

Жыл бұрын

Yeah seriously. It's mostly thumbnail sensationalism. Peter Boyle's channel is another great place to look when you want a sober evaluation of what's going on in the finance world.

@Tethloach1

Жыл бұрын

boycott click bait youtubers, leave a comment, and don't encourage click bait.

I don't care if you are "late" there are few people in KZread that I can "trust". I want YOUR opinion on it, because your videos have always been sensible. Thank you for making this video.

@samvitsaroj4757

Жыл бұрын

The perfect comment and totally reflecting my views as well! ❤️

@grizz2235

Жыл бұрын

you trust a youtuber who you don't know.

@rex.2053

Жыл бұрын

This tbh

@Daniel-yy3ty

Жыл бұрын

yep, saw quite a few "CHINA IS OVER!!11!1!1!" videos in the last month, but this is the first I clicked :D

@Minikin1

Жыл бұрын

Piling on with the sentiment here.

As a Chinese person who worked in the Chinese banking system financing projects in the real estate sector. I can say this analysis is very thorough, fact-based, and very close to the status quo of the Chinese economy, great job!

@mykegoh

Жыл бұрын

7 months on, looks like your analysis is as stupid as the video maker. 😂😂😂😂😂

lol meanwhile 7 month later... 5 american bank has collapsed

This vid age like fine wine as yet another US bank has failed

You're not late, you're here right when we need you! The way this topic was presented in the past month is just another example of blatant clickbait for sensationalism. You said it perfectly: not even experts can predict what will happen to an economy, let alone some random people. Sure, there are issues with China's economy, but there aren't many - if any - economies that aren't facing serious issues right now, albeit for other reasons.

@gregorykarran-ali4529

Жыл бұрын

what a load of crap

@LimeBrawlstars

Жыл бұрын

@@gregorykarran-ali4529 just like u

@hhiippiittyy

Жыл бұрын

A great quote from Keynes... "The market can stay wrong for longer than you can stay solvent."

@olefella7561

Жыл бұрын

Better late than never! The fact that notorious Anglo Western clans are major participants & benefactors of Colonization worldwide, stretching from North America, the land rightfully belongs to indigenous Native American people to Australia/New Zealand in Asia-Pacific, the land rightfully belongs to Native people of Asia Pacific region. Here in Singapore, a tiny island with 6 million souls lives like sardines in a can, where else in nearby vast bountiful Australia which is ten thousand times 10,000 bigger with a mere 27 million inhabitants... A similar situation in tiny and packed Japan, which is running out of space and land. Do you know that their living room and bedroom are the same place, and that most Japanese people sleep in their living room? - While European Colonizers such as Britain and Russia have already Colonized half of Asia, stretching from Australia/New Zealand, to Siberia/Far-East, all in the Asia-Pacific region.., Native people of Asia-Pacific are fighting for a few tiny islands left out there in the South China Sea. Obviously something is not right here! Besides, all these invaders Colonizers do is dig and empty out all the bountiful abundant natural mineral resources from the looted giant resourceful landmass in Asia-Pacific, and sell them back to Asia-Pacific nations. True, it has been their largest export, earning several hundred billion dollars, every year. In my very humble opinion, Asia has been under attack from Anglo British, since they sailed halfway around the world from jolly old England in Europe, and looted this vast bountiful so-called Australia landmass in Asia Pacific region in the late 18th century? Why didn't they occupy beautiful fertile Iceland, right above them just a short distance away, with hardly any people there, even today? May I ask why is Australia, a vast resourceful Continent in Asia-Pacific, only a few hundred miles away from South-East Asia had no Asian-Pacific Islanders in that vast land originally, historically inhabiting when Anglo pirates, some 10,000 miles away England, sailed half the world away, and looted in late 18th century? This doesn't make sense, since Asian-Pacific Islanders originally and historically inhabited and resided in the Pacific islands such as Guam, Tonga, New Zealand, Tahiti, Fiji and Hawaii. May I ask if Anglo clans have any laws at all for dealing with past and present notorious global cardinal crimes like Slavery, Colonialism & Colonization of vast bountiful resourceful Continents, such as North America, which rightfully belongs to indigenous Native Americans, and to Australia and New Zealand in Asia-Pacific region, which rightfully belongs to Native people of Asia Pacific? In my humble opinion, it's about time to decolonize the Colonized lands, and return it to rightful owners. Once again, notorious global cardinal sins & crimes that Anglo West has committed and benefited a great deals, such as Slavery and Colonialism had long been over, why on earth is notorious Colonization still lingering on, may I ask?

@claudiocarrera9552

Жыл бұрын

@@olefella7561 ccp dog, China is trying to rule the world and we the west will destroy your weak ccp dog masters

Finance KZreadrs are doing exactly what the mainstream finance media are doing and sensationalising absolutely everything, I can't stand the clickbait titles and the thumbnail of the shocked face I always see, it draws people in like a fly to a light. I'm glad that there are still a handful of KZreadrs out there with some integrity still, such as yourself.

@chrisp7110

Жыл бұрын

Yeah. The funny part is they are suppose to be economic or financial experts so you figure they would know better.

@CulturalXplorer19

Жыл бұрын

It's a niche They are very smart. They know what people want to hear And therefore take advantage of that to capitalise on it. So many people wanna see china fall, so many people are searching for information regarding China's downfall, this is an opportunity for KZreadrs to gain attention by spreading fake exaggerated news about China's fall. This is where the "China's gonna fall in 30 days" comes from.

As someone who has lived in China for about 10 years: we can't assume a command system like China is going to deal with a financial crisis the same way other economies like the US, Europe, or East Asia deal with financial crises. A different system will still have to deal with those problems, but the amount of control within the system means the methods are going to look very different. Thus mapping the US experience or US process onto China isn't going to be very predictive. Secondly housing investment in China is simple: it's a moral hazard play. People genuinely believe the government cannot allow housing prices to fall, thus housing is a government supported put option for the middle class despite the demographic and financial realities to the contrary. Yes stock market investing is seen as too volatile, but more importantly many people believe, probably correctly, that large numbers of Chinese companies have some level of Enron shenanigans going on. See the Luckin Coffee mess as a good example of what is thought to be common practice.

@haparcheledupwar

Жыл бұрын

Lol a PRO-China KZreadr AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

@dsmonington

Жыл бұрын

@@haparcheledupwar if that's what you got from my comment then your reading comprehension leaves a lot to be desired

@haparcheledupwar

Жыл бұрын

@@dsmonington haahahaahhah whata ccommmunisst humaan violator supporter tsk tskk

@chaoyoong9987

Жыл бұрын

it is a ponzi scheme where upon PreSale of condos - the developers can get the entire return in a WEEK !!! those were the good times roll... but finally the bubble was too big and Big brother Xi saw to it to prick it with 3 red lines not realizing that in the end he has to nationalize the housing sector plus banks where mortgagors are refusing to keep paying for unfinished condos. If Xi think tank come up with a soft landing -it would have saved the day however nobody dares to tell the boss his decision is fatal...now we are discovering the collapse looming. Interesting case study for future economists n financial analysts to ease into soft landing than this harsh bounce which really destroying China GDP since housing is 40%

@longlostwraith5106

Жыл бұрын

@@haparcheledupwar Stop it. Get some help.

"34 days" is just one of many in the Fear Porn series on different countries - be it US, Germany, Turkey, etc. They often fail to separate "hot money" investment / gambling from the real physical economy. Wall Street collapsing doesn't necessarily mean USA collapsing. It's delusional how do them click-baity "citizen economists" feel confident in predicting geopolitical matters that often defy economical philosophies? They should learn from the folks at the former Long-Term Capital Management.

@bloodygekkon5048

Жыл бұрын

this shit reminds me news from 2000s: "US Economy would collapse to october due to middle eastern or debt crisis"

@ure2grit931

Жыл бұрын

It's really a youtube thing. Common youtube advice is to put a timeframe in your videos when you can because people love timeframes. "How to lose weight in 30 days" "I stayed in an airport for 17 hours" Etc.

Honestly, you and Patrick Boyle are the only ones I listen to anymore. There’s too many amateurs in this space now who don’t even have a proper background in economics. Not saying formal training is everything, but everything in the personal finance space is so hyped for clicks. It’s really sad what the community has become. The biggest and loudest voices on this platform aren’t the ones whose careers are based on analytics of the economy, but rather people with real estate licenses dabbling in this space bc it’s profitable and another stream of income for them. And those are the good ones, with a sliding scale quickly into a swamp of scam artists.

@AicyDC

Жыл бұрын

I would reccomend Money & Macro as well, who Richard mentioned at the start of the video. I'm the same, I only listen to these three channels.

@flight_risk

Жыл бұрын

how is the state of china’s _entire_ economy a question of personal finance? maybe it’s less of a content issue and more of an information retrieval issue. if you go into a channel like casgain’s expecting anything _other_ than BS fearmongering you might not be in his target audience

@AicyDC

Жыл бұрын

@@flight_risk Personal finance for many people (including myself) involves investing in the stock market. Even if you don't have shares in Chinese stocks, the Chinese economy collapsing would negatively effect the rest of the market. In fact you don't even need to invest in stocks for China's economy to directly affect you, since it will change the cost and availability of 25% of goods you buy.

@flight_risk

Жыл бұрын

@@AicyDC i legitimately completely fail to see how chinese nationals not paying extortionate mortgages could affect the manufacturing sector. they still gonna go to work

@AicyDC

Жыл бұрын

@@flight_risk Maybe read about the 1930s great depression or 2008 financial crises and you will learn how a financial crises can cause mass unemployment

They've been talking about the Chinese 'Collapse' for the past 20 years.

@day2148

Жыл бұрын

30+ years actually. There's some very good compilations out there on the list of "China Collapse" or "China's Hard Landing" predictions made by western media.

@boldCactuslad

Жыл бұрын

I'm sure their (and our) debts will just continue to rise, exponentially, from now until the end of time with no consequences whatsoever

@xensan76

Жыл бұрын

I've lost a lot of respect for a lot of financial youtubers because they jumped on this stupid bandwagon.

@day2148

Жыл бұрын

@@boldCactuslad Have you heard about Xi's "de-leveraging" campaigns? Or when they refused to have out free money to companies (only low/free interest debt) during the pandemic? Oh right, the media doesn't like to talk about it when China does things properly.

@oivinf

Жыл бұрын

Source?

I think the latest now is.... it has already collapsed, you just don't know it yet. Reminds me of the Hyperinflation is already here, you just don't know it yet trend from last year.

i love the effort you put into these videos and appreciate the effort you go to not only make it understandable, but to do so with your viewers interests in mind. You are a diamond amongst the rough Appreciate your work Richard

dont feel like you're posting late man, its great to get a level headed update and also a bit of a retrospective on the super early videos, what did they get right (if anything) and what did they get wrong

Wow! Richard, as a Chinese I am very impressed by your video! So decent, well-informed and accurate! So much better than those clickbait trash. Good job!

@TheAlchemist1089

Жыл бұрын

你好愿你度过美好的一天

@Poonedfish

Жыл бұрын

👍🏼i love this comment. Trash 😂

@user-ch4bm8ke9q

Жыл бұрын

@@billyminer398 True, western media always sensationalize China such as social credit meme(Does anyone really believe that?) or something else.🥺

FINALLY a non-clickbait, non-sensationalized video about China. Thank you Plain Bagel

6 months in, this video has aged very finely Especially when you consider the collapsing banks in the US and Europe..

@baramis575

8 ай бұрын

5 months later, it has not 🤣

You're not late, you took your time to fully understand the issue and give us the sensible explanation about it. That is the reason why I love your channel.

China government takes action to cool the property instead of letting the bubble becomes too big to fail. The government willing to take action is admirable instead of not doing anything like other countries.

Very much appreciated Plain Bagel!! Always learn a ton with your videos!!

Weeding through all the BS to find channels like yours is what I love. Amazing channel, keep up all the great work, and thank you.

graham stephan and andrei jikh are some of the most click-baity finance youtubers out there

As always Richard, thank you for not making the punchable sad faces that a lot of other financial KZreadrs do. I know it's shallow since many of those creators do out out good content, but Jesus Christ I'm so tired of seeing those insufferable little shits do it

@CanadianSon

Жыл бұрын

The very reason I Un subbed from meet Kevin lol. The thumbnails cause so much anger

@jacob_90s

Жыл бұрын

@@CanadianSon i know it's death by a thousand cuts. Individually they're just silly and maybe even a little bit funny, but when nearly every single one of them does it for every single video, it's just maddening

@redryan20000

Жыл бұрын

Sadly it's all about the algorithm.

@owenb8636

Жыл бұрын

Seriously this is why I stopped watching Graham's videos lol. It really is so irritating along with the clickbait titles

@fredericp64

Жыл бұрын

Same. This channel is proof you don't need to resort to those crummy tactics. The data does however prove that they work to increase clicks, unfortunately.

Thanks for not over-sensationalizing or click-baiting; for this and for your calm and measured analysis I have liked and subscribed.

Another stupid prediction. 7 months on and 3 US banks collapsed instead. Zero credibility. 😂😂😂😂😂

Thank you for this video. I never watched any of the click bait videos but was curious what would happen when the days were up. Thanks for prepping this video on “the day of collapse.”

All those "China will collapse in 18 days" videos posted a month ago sure aged well lmao

@mordet2

Жыл бұрын

You're right and that's why I take them with a mine worth of salt. However, I try to keep in mind that collapse at that scale can be very slow. So, just because it didn't collapse in the time frame or scale as advertised, doesn't mean it's not collapsing. Seeing how the Chinese government is attempting to deal with their unstable economy, I can only hope for the Chinese people the best.

@GSUS-fc6ss

Жыл бұрын

The world will end may 21, My birthday is may 21, And not one of you ducks got me a happy judgment day card. 😡

@osasuvhnvxtgbvddheds1601

Жыл бұрын

wellll usa collapsing too

@GSUS-fc6ss

Жыл бұрын

@@osasuvhnvxtgbvddheds1601 50 cent army made it here fast.

@oceanwave4502

Жыл бұрын

Maybe Gordon Chang just has many relatives. :))

I was waiting to hear your take on this. Thank you!

Love your video. Your interpretation of the situation in China is relatively fairer and unbiased comparing to other KZreadrs.

@chrisp7110

Жыл бұрын

Yep. The thing is people don't understand is no one predicted that China was going to become an economic powerhouse 20 years ago but they claim that they know China will collapse. Some of them are financial experts too!!!

Glad you made this video Richard. I commented on Casgain economic collapse video and I got called as a Russian agent by few people then got my comment deleted. Hopefully this video will be a more sensible one and less sensationalised.

@TheRealIronMan

Жыл бұрын

The Ukraine War has shown the world westerners are just as propagandized as the people they usually look down upon.

@LOL-zu1zr

Жыл бұрын

They aren’t sane there

The Godfather of China collapse, Gordan Chang is still talking on the circuit after declaring the impending collapse 20 over years back. Maybe it's a very lucrative topic.

@durexuncensored

Жыл бұрын

lol

I am convinced that a lot of KZreadrs get their content from the same place. Like a prepburger. Besides The Plain Bagel, best financial KZreadr imo

Looking forward to how this plays out. Nice video. Keep up the good work.

Ok. So am I crazy to think that the fundamental value of real estate is to have people living in the space? How can you have a population own more houses than there are people and still keep it “profitable”? If 90% of people already own real estate then who is living in the new developments?

@sor3999

Жыл бұрын

Right!? Ghost town developments are well known. People are purely buying them as tokens to store value. Then again he did say 6% were boycotting so that's within the 10% that don't own a home.

@AicyDC

Жыл бұрын

Yeah, in this sense it's a quasi ponzi scheme. Normally real estate aways has some inherent value, but in the case of ghost cities the value is 0.

@JewTube001

Жыл бұрын

isn't land always scarce? if it is, then it should always be a safe investment.

@AicyDC

Жыл бұрын

@@JewTube001 Scarcity does not always equal value. My cat's furrballs are scarce yet I don't think I could sell them for much. Besides, China has a LOT of unused land.

@kimeli

Жыл бұрын

i think they meant household not individual,, i mean how can a 5 year old own a home or anything for that matter.

Appreciate the reasoned take on this subject. There are definitely challenges China is facing, some of those of their own making. But it's good to give context to what it means big picture.

@johntucker5489

Жыл бұрын

They really not facing anything, the Chinese government shows you what they want you to see and they always treat their people like shit it's nothing new. The thing is the world is dependant on China plus they still the richest economy.

@em7894

Жыл бұрын

All of them

Loved the ad placement ;)

Thanks for understanding.

I think after 2008, economies are more prepared with housing crises. I think there will be a little bit of a reduction in growth in China, a lot of wealth issues for the Chinese, but I don’t think “collapse” is the best choice of word, maybe a moderate struggle

@Myanmartiger921

Жыл бұрын

slowdown?

@franticmower7300

Жыл бұрын

Nobody prepared for a five fold increase in housing prices.

@magahongkong4664

Жыл бұрын

2008 wasn't housing crisis. It was the broad global economic slowdown

@noahthenormal

Жыл бұрын

@@magahongkong4664 Are you gonna claim that was totally unrelated to the US housing market or what is the point of this comment?

@pprrzzeemmo

Жыл бұрын

in 2008 USA percent of housing in GDP fell from 18%ish to a bit over 15%. in china right now it makes almost 30% of GDP. there is a significant potential for it to go into a large economic crisis.

Ppl don’t realize We essentially lease our land too. Don’t pay ur taxes (lease) then government takes it

Very objective analysis about China that is hard to find on KZread these days. I appreciate your awesome work, you obviously took the time to look into the issue, unlike many other clickbait youtubers.

Thank God you made this because I've been trying to find a non sensationalized analysis for a while now, have a sub.

Thank you! Even though I know better, it's easy to start questioning whether I am actually missing something when there is such loud disinformation blasting all the time. So hard for real information to break through the noise online.

A very clear explanation. I study this topic every day and am fairly well informed. Thus I have not learned much from your thoughts but it is nice to have the calm information without doomsday.

Could you included sources in your video descriptions please? Would be interesting to follow up on

I say excellent work. Did your research. Presented the facts. Very diplomatic with your verbiage, while remaining unbiased and pragmatic. This is the type of reliable and professional content I look for.

The number of days was the time the "homeowners" who were paying mortgages for homes that were not built yet would stop paying the mortgages on their houses that don't exist and aren't being built by bankrupt property developers

@henalihenali

Жыл бұрын

They have paid substantial deposits already.

@JewTube001

Жыл бұрын

what a sentence

@LOL-zu1zr

Жыл бұрын

So what the country doesn’t run on building houses

I feel like it's hard to take anything seriously anymore with how much sensationalism there is, which is bad because there is a lot of terrible things going on

@MeepChangeling

Жыл бұрын

There always has been and always will be lots of terrible things going on. That's just what life is due to physics and the realities of life. Stop caring about the futility.

sounds like there is a reason my go to news sources haven't had much to say about this topic. Thanks! i often listen to breaking points

Thanks for talking aboot this

Problem with these stories are they forget there are BILLIONs of people in China and when 500 people protest on something you should consider there might be 500 million people who might not support protest at all! You just can't generalise billions of people "they're losing faith in the banking system" based on hundreds of people specially in China.

@hilljohnson3089

Жыл бұрын

Chinese here, you really understand China. Here most of the people would not be so radical as to go on the street protesting. The radicals could only represent a little fraction of the whole picture, and of which opinions are sharply divided. There are all kinds of narrative.

@LaowaiDaveJCP

Жыл бұрын

@@hilljohnson3089 i can only empathise how misunderstood and misrepresented you guys are everywhere. The world is carefully crafted that way 😶

@friday2593

Жыл бұрын

That bank is a private bank, and its shareholders are suspected of breaking the law. The case has now been solved and the money has been returned to the depositors. The clashes broke out because depositors demonstrated at the wrong bank, their money was in private banks, but they went to the central bank to demonstrate.

@LOL-zu1zr

Жыл бұрын

I mean small rural private banks in China collapses all the time.... This is the first time in decades that it reached national news and somehow this makes people lose faith in national or large private banks that never collapsed once

@michimatsch5862

Жыл бұрын

@@hilljohnson3089 Please don't misunderstand this but I am quite surprised that it is seen as radical to protest in China. In most places in Europe protest is seen as a "normal" way of democratic action. You know, raising awareness on an issue, creating a movement to deal with it, etc. Now, that's not how it goes down in practice most of the time but that's the ideal. So I am curious as to the difference in perception there.

There is a positive correlation between click baiting fear mongering and voice over in KZread. Normally the youtubers that put their face in the screen tend to be more nuanced, and less about "everything will blow up by the end of the week", like Money & Macro and The Plain Bagel.

As a rule of tumb, if a economy video is boring, its mostly good, if a economic video is about sensationalism, its mostly bad.

Oh you're perfectly on time. Waiting for your take on such topics

The likely scenario is similar to 1990s Japan. Not a collapse but a burst bubble followed by a slow decline for a number of years. You can’t avoid the pain, you can just spread out the hurt over a long time.

@francescoazzoni3445

Жыл бұрын

I think that the most likely scenario is an italian style decline: not necessarily a collapse in GDP or quality of life, bur productivity growth slowly grinding to a halt, the government taking on more and more debt to stimulate the economy and structural change made close to impossible by strong interest groups with vested interest in the current system (big companies employees, retirees, public employees, regional elites...)

@Farhankhan_the1

Жыл бұрын

@@francescoazzoni3445 Britain is headed the same way. I hope tho Scotland becomes independent.

@ankitait2

Жыл бұрын

@@francescoazzoni3445 I agree, the vested interests primarily being the mandarins of the CPC. Though China has gone through increased state control phases in the 90s, the Xi phase is something unprecedented, right out of the Mao Era. The Chinese must be missing Rongji and Jibao desperately in these times.

@chrispek3912

Жыл бұрын

The decline of Japan during that era was due to the unfair treaty of Plaza Accord. Japan was forced by the USA to agree to that treaty and hence limit its economic growth. And since Japan is not as big and resilient as China, it missed the boat to surpass USA economically.

@unsharded8503

Жыл бұрын

@@Farhankhan_the1 good

The video is generally good. About the bank deposit case, the owner of those small banks committed fraud. Money was not deposited into those banks but was rather transferred into varies funds controlled by the bank owner.

Its been a year now and we can see this video is more correct than the countless "collapsing in days" videos

Thank you for your informative and fair assessment video.

Grt video but why isn't there any option over 360p?

@MrSupernova111

Жыл бұрын

I think youtube changed something to save money on their end but I could be wrong.

@AtriumComplex

Жыл бұрын

That should go away soon. It takes time to transcode at higher resolutions.

As someone who lived around there until recently, I see that one too many people does not really understand how China is besides the US media image. China has a different economic system than almost the rest of the World. In the US it is bundled with "non-Market Economies" but it is not how it works. There are some listed in the trade gov, but they are not in the slightest similar economies as the Market Economies are. That because there are actually 4 kinds of economies in that regard and Market Economies are one of those kinds. You have what is adequately called People's Economies, Collective Economies and Guild Style Economies. While west usually think these are step of economic evolution rather than systems used to this day, each of them has similar forms of study but radically different ways of using economic disciplines in that govern economic governance. Often people label "socialist" or "communist" any other non Market economies, leading to the confusion that makes some argue that China is in fact a Market Economy that goes "wrong". China is a People's Economy that goes right. It wasnt, now it is, and that is why it go where it is now. There is a growing list of economists realizing that the idea in the West in general that Market economies are superior and tend to do better is undermining a objective look on how the non Market economies work, what are the types and how the existence of non Market economies undermine the present use of Market Economies. Until the last two decades, the market economies have been on top and holding on to their position. Their effectiveness hinged on that. Once one, if any, non market economy become close to the top enough to start influencing global trade, the whole network of market economies is subject to an economy that does not suffer the weaknesses of the market. That is how they underestimate China rise until it was too late, and how now they underestimate the power of Russia. PPP and Marginal Value of Trade are two of the hundred aspects which are completely different according to the type of economy market wise you are governing. That is why if you just adjust for a really global metric, the situation of the World changes drastically, and you might understand why we are today the way we are.

@jerrybi8400

Жыл бұрын

I like this explanation, exactly the shame thoughts but yours are more precise. Enlighten me more on Russia, please

@2hotflavored666

Жыл бұрын

"underestimate the power of Russia" you mean overestimate? Russia is a complete joke of a nation that got utterly destroyed by a 3rd world nation like Ukraine, the counteroffensive adds more proof on the mountain of proof.

@gothenmosph5151

Жыл бұрын

This sounds like a long winded way of saying that China's economy cannot fail or even slow down which is absurd. All economies are subject to this. China is also for the most part a market economy and furthermore, relies on the existence of other market economies to be able to survive. Take away the markets and China would suffer a devastating economic collapse. China, and every single other socialist nation that has ever existed, is not anywhere close to real communism.

Really nicely explained! Thanks for not being a doom and gloom with the dramatic music, and just speaking clearly. Very educational! Thanks!

Would it make sense for the stocks to go up now that the real estate sector is screwed?

Never believe people who don't study Chinese economics from Chinese education or anyone who barely had an education in econ

@publicenemy1238

Жыл бұрын

@@ddddzzzz5426 imagine being dumb enough to say that

I've been hearing about China's "imminent" real estate crash for the last 15 years. Forgive me if I do not hold my breath this time.

Thank you for the very sane progress report.

Plain and simple with few chuckles here n there. U're one of few economic youtubers I rly like n trust!

Why is the quality only 360p? :(

@busenfreund

Жыл бұрын

video still processing

@InJunoWeTrust

Жыл бұрын

It's a fresh upload. Anytime a video is uploaded onto YT, it is only available in the lower pixel formats until the HD ones are processed.

so early its still 360p

Thank you for 'plain n simple' explaination.

Your way of narration is soo good ☺️

The American attitude seems to be "when we played the way you play, we lost. So that means that you have to lose too."

Forget about the KZreadrs, even highly pedigreed economists also don't know what they are talking about when they make predictions. Marco economic trends are stochastic and cannot be predicted with any accuracy. Look at the "shock-therapy" idea that was so dominant in Washington think-tanks in the early 90's that caused untold suffering in the former Soviet Republics (an idea that China flirted with but ultimately rejected). Look at 2008, look at the rise of China in the last 30 years, look at the market reaction to covid - none was predicted. I'm sure some economists got it right but never the consensus, and the economist that got China right might have gotten 2008 wrong - the signal to noise ratio is abysmal. IMO the only smart thing to do from a policy stand point was Deng Xiao Ping's mantra of "crossing the river while feeling the stone." The ability to be practically minded and discard policies that don't work quickly; I do worry that China is losing its pragmatic edge that brought on so much economic success now it's under a more consolidated power structure under Xi, particularly as Xi fill the positions of power with loyalists who might not wish to defy him. Though a Xi secure in his power might also have greater political leeway to be pragmatically minded, and be able to backtrack on his own programs. It's really hard to say.

Very interesting video. In-depth and balanced as always. Thank you.

Thank you for this. Probably the most balanced look at the situation I’ve seen on KZread thus far. More people should watch this to get an insight into chinas economy today.

I appreciate you so much for trying to be a bi-partisan in reporting on issues tying to China (Non-democratic), even though fundamentally there's a difference between our ideal political system and theirs which ties to historical/pragmatic context (whole 'nother subject). I appreciate you trying to view China objectively (Praises & Criticism) and not blindly playing to the mainstream media which is actively in trying to demonize China and incite a war/conflict.

@arthas640

Жыл бұрын

mainstream media is pretty inconsistent on China. in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and 00s many main stream media outlets were singing Chinas praises especially when Deng started liberalizing the economy. Even today media outlets and commentators snipe eachother for being too lenient on China or for ignoring major issues with China. many companies are terrified of pissing off China so they womt even have anything related to LGBTQ+ or include things like chinese villains in movies.

@thomasau3204

Жыл бұрын

@@arthas640 the whole LGBTQ+ issue is rightfully owned/significant enough for the US, while it being a concern in China is way down the ladder compared to issues the chinese deemed more important such as economic growth, outlook and policies regarding climate change and etc. (Not trying to downplay the rights of LGBTQ+, but yea it's not big enough of a movement as of yet in China) What's happening subtlely tho, is a feminist movement within China. You could see it being reflected in films, dramas and etc. On the other hand, i think the MSM in the 70s-90s was singing praises for China. Because the US saw a fracture within the soviet/communist international body, and China was a thorn to Russia/Soviet after the breakdown of Sino-Soviet relations. In a way, the CCP/China should thank it's 'allowed' miracle of industrialization and economic recovery thanks to the Soviets. As the US saw China as the lesser evil and allowed its rise (revoking sanctions and etc). The economic reforms by Deng in the 70s should be credited just as much to the Soviets/Americans

This obsession with China is just mind boggling

@LOL-zu1zr

Жыл бұрын

Well it’s a good distraction from their own life problems I seen the same obcession for some groups back in China

@TheMangoMussolini

Жыл бұрын

"Obsession"? Or might it be intense interest in understanding and knowing the world's second largest, soon to be largest, economy? Since that will play a major role in EVERYbody's future. The only thing "mind boggling" is the amount of apathy people display towards understanding the world around them.

@em7894

Жыл бұрын

Are you a wumao? Theyre consistently destroying everything they touch. They ruin small local business, they bully others who don't want to participate in their delusion, they manipulate currency, they lie as they breathe.

very well considered take... very much appreciated 😊

Thank you for a balanced and sober evaluation.

That entire trend was so stupid. Empires don't die in a day nor are they built in one

3:08 A slight correction on the rest of the world not leasing land, but owning it. Do you have property taxes in your country? If yes, then you're leasing. If you say that's not true, what happens if you decide not to pay that tax any more? Yep, the government sell it out from under you to recoup their taxes. Just sayin' ... Technically you might consider that different, but let's face it...it all amounts to the same thing

this is why i love this channel. super simple and straight to the point

Still wonder how US with the most debts in the world, still has not collapse. Yet has so many people keep talking about collapse of China over so many years while noticeable how China been growing so fast the last decade and pretty much is a lot of FUD, as US CPI increased just 0.1% cause whole stocks and crypto market to collapse.

That casgains academy channel is such a joke, I lose brain cells listening to that guy draw conclusions by pulling arbitrary stats together

Truthfully major collapses overnight are rare. History is long and dragged out, moving like an iceberg. I do think they have a number of serious issues like an aging workforce, an inflexible economy, and Sabre rattling with their major trade partners. But I suspect that the world collectively is entering an age of stagnation. The world is slowing down. Innovation occurs but not at the breakneck speed. The global system is fraying at the edges.

@Jose04537

Жыл бұрын

I mean despite everything, even the Russian economy is holding to dear life.

@nickl5658

Жыл бұрын

Nope. China is still moving forward and very fast (At least their biotech given that is the field I am familiar with). The reason why you think the world is slowing is because you are seeing "America slowing down". America is slowing because most of its R&D funding goes to make better weapons (applied research). And the funding that isn't ear marked for military research goes to applied research. Leaving very little for basic research. Applied research, builds you stuff now. But basic research gets you new stuff, next gen stuff in 20 years. After 9/11 and the war on terror, funding for basic research just dried up.

@johntaylor2683

Жыл бұрын

@@nickl5658 is it really the case that all STEM graduates all go into the military supply companies, or directly into the military? What about the all the commercial technology companies, are they starved of new talent?

@PraveenJose18551

Жыл бұрын

@@nickl5658 if RnD was entirely responsible for growth then China makes no sense nor does the US during 70s to 80s or 00s to 10s. China's growth is almost entirely in capital and labor accumulation, China's total factor productivity is lower than that of rich countries. This is not what you'd expect for a country having economic growth lead by technology.

@wayward03

Жыл бұрын

@@nickl5658 China has a significant demographic issue looming, they also have very fake public growth numbers and what is real is heavily dependent on the housing sector which is a house of cards... Not 34 days or whatever but a decade or less

Great video - needed an answer to the KZread economics experts.

Thanks for sharing!

If anything, I think you are understating the response from the Chinese Central Bank- with the amount of power and lack of transparency they have over the sector, they can limit or remove the ability for bank runs to happen by limiting or even turning off the ability for people to withdrawal funds, which while catastrophic for individuals that need funds to survive, are going a long way into stabilizing the banking system and preventing a collapse. Excellent analysis, much better than the clickbait all over the place.

@spartannoob7262

Жыл бұрын

Or they can just print the money needed to give to the people

@pierrew7316

Жыл бұрын

What a stupid analyse. Chinese Central Bank has ordered other bank to Pat back their deposit. First the one under fifty thousand yuan then one hundred thousand yuan. Luckily china is not control ed by financial sharks. People who has lost deposit will get money back little by little.

@claudiocarrera9552

Жыл бұрын

@@pierrew7316 lol ccp dog

@johnsuckher3037

Жыл бұрын

China put brakes on this themselves, banking failures happening are usually illegal scams and bullshit tiers. I started investing in 2016 and immanent China collapse, Taiwan war always around the corner. Probably if I did started in 2010 I would have heard it too. If anything, if this situation is manageable it leaves China at much better strong growth trajectory as cancer is being operated as we talk.

@johntaylor2683

Жыл бұрын

@@pierrew7316 In the mean time small businesses in Hunan will go bust, and regual people cannot pay bills.

There are also very serious long term issues that will be a definite drag on China's economy which include but are not limited to a disproportionate percentage of the population being senior citizens without any healthcare insurance system (this will cause all sorts of financial issues in the system) and a shrinking working aged population which will shrink China's GDP(The less workers you have the less goods and services you can provide) due to their child limitation policy. While they may not collapse completely, there is a good chance that their economic performance is peaking right now.

@WarrenKLiu

Жыл бұрын

Erm please don’t confuse China with USA healthcare system. 95% of Chinese have basic health insurance and healthcare fees are actually very affordable in China. For example, I was treat for dehydration in New York City while travelling there in 2019, since I come from a Universal Healthcare country I have no health insurance. Doctor plus 1 bag of IV drip later, my bank account was USD3k lighter. Similar situation in Shanghai, treated for dehydration, Doctor plus 1 bag of IV drip later, no insurance as well, my bank account was about USD50 lighter. So yeah, China’s not gonna have US style no money no insurance you die or go bankrupt scenario.

@philipmensch6324

Жыл бұрын

@@WarrenKLiu Warren I stand corrected. Does China have a good healthcare system? With inconsistent standards between rural areas and the big cities, the health care system in China has been rated as 144th in the world by the World Health Organization. The country spends 5.5% of its GDP on health and has a relatively low number of doctors (1.6 per 1,000 population).

@WarrenKLiu

Жыл бұрын

@@philipmensch6324 Thank you for the response and it actually got me to update my information on the matter, thank you very much for that. To further this discussion, I think we will need to establish my position on your question. Does China have a good healthcare system. The simple answer is Yes. The nuanced answer is It can be better BUT it's getting better every year and more importantly it's affordable. China as of 2020 has a 2.36 per 1000 doctor ratio (source: OECD). China in 2013 was at 1.64 per 1000 so your statement of 1.5 per 1000 is at least a decade outdated. The USA today is at 2.64 per 1000 (source: OECD) and at 2.50 in 2012. WHO per capita minimum of doctor to population ratio is 1:1000 (www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6259525/ Stated in the Background Section) so both US and China are way above the WHO minimum, and if we look at absolute number instead of ratios, China today has more doctors than the US. As of 2020, USA has 1.4M doctors per FSMB data (about 1.1M active and 1.4M licenses), China has about 4M. AMA has reported that USA is going to be facing a doctor shortage by 2033 ranging from 35K-124K if nothing is done about it and to date State and Feds are doing nothing about it as far as I can tell (www.ama-assn.org/practice-management/sustainability/doctor-shortages-are-here-and-they-ll-get-worse-if-we-don-t-act) while China has announced that it intends to increase the ratio per 1000 to 3.2 by 2025 (highly doubtful they'll hit it but at least their trajectory in the last 2 years is in the right direction) Yes I absolutely agree on the point that there is a HUGE discrepancy between quality of care between rural and urban areas but that's true in every country on the planet. I'm not sure about you, but I lived 4 years in rural Massachusetts, healthcare there is worse than most developing nations urban healthcare, and I've lived in USA, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines, UK and Germany (lived = at least 1 year in mentioned country) so this statement isn't hearsay but firsthand experience. I'm currently stuck in Indonesia since the pandemic begun, in another statement of affordability, both my wife and I do not have health insurance because healthcare here is very affordable (China is actually cheaper than Indonesia since I have to travel to China quite often before the pandemic). My wife has several chronic diseases and her monthly meds after all the co-pay, insurance deductibles, yada yada yada in the US, we still have to shell out about $2500. For the same thing in Indonesia WITHOUT insurance and paying the Expat premium because we don't get the citizen discounts, we pay a total of $550 a month, in China we had to pay about $350 for the same thing with no insurance. As for China's #144 global ranking that you stated, did you take a look at the date of that ranking? That ranking was based on 1997 data and published in 2000, it's 2022 now and from the free data I can find for current ranking, China is ranked 54 or 46 depending on which indicators get counted or who is doing the counting, not a bad improvement in "ranking". Since WHO has stopped ranking themselves, the best indicators in my opinion are LONGEVITY and MORTALITY RATES. US Longevity in 2013 was at 78.74 while China was at 75.32. In 2019 (2020 was a shitshow in the US so its not a fair comparison), USA was at 78.79 after experiencing drops between 2015-17 before recovering and China was at 76.91. If we compare 2020, USA dropped to 77.28 vs China increasing to 77.10 (OECD Source). If you look at the last decade trajectory, China has been consistently increasing longevity and the US averaged out to more or less the same if we do not count 2020. In 2019, US mortality rate was at 8.7 per 1000 with steady increases year on year from 8.22 in 2013 while China was at 7.09 per 1000 down from 7.13 in 2013. I see no point in 2020 data for US as it shot into double digits. Now with that said, I feel that comparing China healthcare quality to US healthcare quality is unfair. You can't compare a developing Economy to that of a G7. I mean we aren't even comparing Apples to Apples now are we? The US healthcare ranking is a bottom feeder in the G7 while China's rankings are at the top of developing economies. So I would argue that China's Healthcare is on the right trajectory and in good shape since it is constantly improving and there is actually a national effort and policy to make it better over time. For a developing economy indicators to be so close or on par with a G7 nation, is an impressive feat by itself. Now for your comment of as a percentage of GDP, that is a very misleading statement because the cost of the same medicine in the US or in Japan or in Korea is anywhere from 3-100X that of China especially in the USA because there are no price control on medicine in the US. Bernie Sanders made a very good case on this. For example US insulin average price is $113 and as high as $300 while the global median is $5.95. Today in China you can get insulin for as low as $2.95 while US prices keep shooting up. So as a percentage of GDP. US healthcare spend is 19.7% of GDP but it's pricing on medicines, fees, etc in some cases are more than 100X of China. So if someone actually does a study for what you get per dollar in US vs per dollar in China, that healthcare spend as percentage of GDP is meaningless because at 5.5% GDP spend Chinese citizens are still getting more bang for the buck than your average American. Note the cash out difference with insurance in the US and no insurance in China for my wife's medication. As for aging population due to 1 child policy, yes 1 child policy was a stupid attempt at population control and the 3 child policy today is a little late coming. Most of my Mainland Chinese friends today have 1 kid with a fast growing 2 child family fast overtaking the 1 child families so in a generation, the aging population won't devolved into the same situation as Japan. There will be a generation pain but I think the Chinese are used to having pain and are good at enduring pain. Lastly looking at the aging population from a Western lens will skew your conclusions. Culturally even today, living with your parents is a source of pride and not a source of embarrassment, so the aging population will be mostly taken care of especially with the tax breaks and rebates in the works that I'm hearing from my Mainland friends. The Chinese boast of 3 generations under 1 roof and more often than not, the ones boasting the loudest in a social gathering are the ones who can claim 4 generations under 1 roof. The family unit is still very much central to the Chinese unlike in the West. Personally I am not concerned about this at all. This also holds true for the Chinese diaspora who aren't in the West. I personally still "partially live" with my parents since I still keep a room at their house despite my entire career essentially being an expat. Both my wife and I are making plans to purchase a large house so we can have a generational home when I stop getting assigned to different countries every few years which is also being planned and if the company doesn't do that, well I'm made enough to retire so the plans to live with my parents are very much a major focus in my life and to my surprise my wife (she's german-dutch) is the one spearheading this effort. As for economic performance peaking, since I have a lot of first hand insights on this due to basically being an expat my entire career. China's economy is changing. Chinese Labour is too expensive today. We actually moved our factories back to ASEAN over the last 5 years, ironically because those same factories were moved to China in the late 90s. Main reason, labour cost. I think China would be hard pressed to enjoy double digit GDP growth but they will still be in high growth mode for the foreseeable future especially since their fintech sector is miles ahead of the West and their services sector is increasing from all I can see. Used to be when I first started out we would engaged US or German design and engineering firms to prototype our stuff, but since 2005, we've stopped engaging Western companies and exclusively used Chinese companies for our prototypes, in general we get the same results faster, 30% cheaper and no scaling issues. The quicker turn around isn't because the Chinese engineers are better or anything, in most cases, it is because the entire supply chain needed for the prototypes are all in China so they get their hands on the things they need in 2-3 days vs 3-4 weeks by the US or German firms. Well hope you enjoyed the reading. I did enjoy doing the research to update my knowledge on a Sunday night. Have a good day.

@WarrenKLiu

Жыл бұрын

@B what do you mean by haven’t distributed a covid vaccine yet? Last I checked China vaccination rate is at 90% in China. I believe US despite having excess inventory hasn’t hit 70% vaccinations rate. At 90% vaccination rate, China has basically vaccinated enough people 3 times the entire population of the US, and that’s not counting the 60-70% of ASEAN average vaccination rate with a total population of close to 700M people. If that doesn’t constitute vaccines distribution, then I’m at a loss what is. in ASEAN, we get vaccines from all providers but majority are vaccinated with the Chinese vaccines. I have 2 shots of AZ while my wife has 2 shots of Sinopharm. It was a your first shot is what’s available situation then 2nd shot is when the brand of your first shot is available again. I had to wait a month longer for my 2nd shot than my wife despite getting 1st shot before her since it’s scheduled randomly by the government for the 1st shot. My friends who unluckily got Moderna for their first shot are still waiting for their 2nd shot today because no shipments since the first batch.

@bigchungus1920

Жыл бұрын

@@WarrenKLiu I think he misspoke his point , it’s not insurance in China but just funds. If your population ages, you have more old people who can’t work and less young people to pick up their burden, either directly or through taxes. Like what happened in Japan

Solid video! Absolutely sick of other KZreadrs who love to hop on bandwagons and make a poorly researched video which they, surprisingly, stand behind.

I’m just really confused about this situation because there are so many KZread videos about it but I can’t find any major news articles about it

KZreadrs been predicting the Chinese economy's collapse for a few weeks now smh

@falsch4761

Жыл бұрын

More like since before youtube was invented. Usual China bad US good. White expat, brown immigrant.

@robinking3774

Жыл бұрын

No, for DECADES.

I doubt a collapse will happen, but a recession IMO is likely High inflation and increasing interest rates in the west will slow Chinas economic growth Pre Covid, Chinas economy hasn't decreased since the 70s. A decrease in GPD could cause panic in China as many citizens they have never experienced a recession USD to CNY has increased 7% over the past year though. That will make Chinese goods more attractive and with interest rates in China decreasing, they will run the 'risk' of higher inflation. I say risk, but with a high debt level for real estate builders. Higher inflation in China may help them devalue the real value of their debt, avoiding defaults

@user-dy4rh5vz4w

Жыл бұрын

Don't think about China with your Western mindset

if the debt in the housing bubble in china is high is the possibility that Collateralized debt obligations are involved and would you consider the outcome differently?

Western economies are so reliant on funny money businesses and debt spending that people have completely forgotten the fundamental wealth associated with industrial output, technology, education and population size, i.e. finance make up the entire economy of many western countries, but for China it's just one corner. Second thing is unlike western governments, Beijing usually do their homework before implementing new policies, meaning the housing downtime was likely the intended outcome of the original rule change. Because maybe it's possible for a government to want to pop bubbles instead of inflating it, and what better time to pop a bubble than when you're making record trade surplus. You'd especially want to pop any bubbles before the war starts in 5 years.

From what I've read the actually companies aren't the problem it's the fact that local governments are extremely dependant on land sales for their budgets. Those local governments are also incredible over burdened with debt thanks to all those unproductive infrastructure projects.

You've earned my great respect with your moderate, unbiased and fair opinions, unlike doomsayers such as Peter Zeihan or Gordon Chang. Note: Most Chinese believe in property investment not for themselves but for next generation. Even most 'Ghost Cities' apartments have been bought as 2nd or 3rd investments.

@chrisp7110

Жыл бұрын

I hate Peter Zeihan and Gordon Chang. They are basically trying to paint China as pure evil. They are part of the reason why we have Asian Hate because any American assume that if you are asian then you are Chinese and since you are Chinese then you are a spy.

@hankxu3457

Жыл бұрын

@@chrisp7110 Very true. Intelligence has its limit but not stupidity

@em7894

Жыл бұрын

Ok wumao

@martin4819

Жыл бұрын

I was under the impression that some of the drive of home ownership is not only so a family can have it as an investment but it also helps ensure a son could have a wife, in a country with a short supply of women? Or is this mostly not true? I mean I can attest it works, my younger brother here in the US has never really had a job but has had plenty of mysterious health conditions that keep him from having one. Our Mom has three homes and she gave him one, and sure enough he quickly found a wife. 😂 Meanwhile I work like an idiot.

Great commentary. Thanks 👍

Great balanced video - thanks