Case Study: Southern Iowa Tornado Outbreak - March 5, 2022

Ғылым және технология

In-depth case study of the localized tornado outbreak that occurred across southern Iowa on March 5, 2022. This video will focus on the supercell that produced the EF4 tornado that tore a 70-mile-long path from Winterset to Newton, IA, impacting southern and eastern portions of Des Moines along the way. On the surface, this event appeared to be a typical cold-core event; however, there had to be some other factors at play that allowed multiple strong or violent to occur. To determine why this event over-performed, I discuss:
*Model forecasts leading up to the event,
*The background synoptic and mesoscale environment before and during the event,
*How the event progressed, including some of my own experience chasing the Winterset supercell,
*Hypotheses for why this event over-performed when, on the surface, it looked like a typical cold-core event, and
*Analog events, including those that yielded storms with similar rapid tornadogenesis, occurred in the same area, and had similar background environments.
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
3:02 Model data
10:09 Background synoptic/mesoscale environment
14:53 Event progression: initiation/organization
19:44 Winterset supercell: mesocyclone development, Corning tornado
20:54 Winterset supercell: pre-tornado evolution, increase in hail core size/intensity
24:36 Winterset supercell: tornadogenesis, tornado maintenance
28:10 Chariton and Corydon tornadoes
29:14 Winterset supercell: cyclic tornadogenesis, Kellogg and Tama tornadoes
30:08 Characteristics and evolution of low-level shear
37:35 Topographical influences on low-level shear
41:45 Favorable storm characteristics: precipitation venting, streamwise vorticity current
46:06 Analogs
46:31 Analogs (rapid tornadogenesis): March 28, 2020 (Jonesboro, AR, tornado)
50:15 Analogs (rapid tornadogenesis): May 22, 2011 (Joplin, MO, tornado)
53:59 Analogs (geography): June 7, 1953
55:45 Analogs (geography): June 12, 1976
57:47 Analogs (background environment): April 22, 2020 (Springer, OK, tornado)
59:29 Analogs (background environment): April 23, 2021 (Lockett, TX, tornado outbreak)
1:00:34 Conclusions

Пікірлер: 59

  • @iandouglas4145
    @iandouglas41452 жыл бұрын

    Fantastic and deep breakdown. I look forward to more of these. Skip Talbot is the only other person I have seen give such detailed analysis.

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks so much!

  • @sageand94
    @sageand942 жыл бұрын

    The valley funnel hypothesis certainly seems sound. Looks like several tons of effort and knowledge required to make these. Much appreciated

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you; I appreciate the kind words!

  • @matthewwinter1340
    @matthewwinter1340 Жыл бұрын

    I live in the northern suburbs of Des Moines and was chasing this beast, and came into the immediate damage path as it past over highway 5 just NE of Norwalk, and some of the trees were partially and others fully, debarked just in the south side of the highway. And of course people were all parked under overpasses just northwest of Norwalk as it was going through the southern parts of that city, blocking the road. I really would love more media and other coverages about the extreme dangers of people parking under overpasses during a tornado, for a plethora of reasons not the least of which includes the blocking of traffic. But this discussion is superb, and well explained!! Historic tornado for sure

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you! Since the May 3, 1999, Oklahoma outbreak, the overpass issue has been hammered into public safety messaging, but people just don't seem to get it or care about it. I come across it time and time again while chasing, particularly when a big hail core is approaching. People just park under the overpass and block traffic.

  • @TallyTechandTroubleshooting
    @TallyTechandTroubleshooting2 жыл бұрын

    Trey, this was an excellent case study/analysis of that weather event. Going to have to watch a couple times because there is a TON of info! I am sure, after ingesting this, I will have questions. You really are a fantastic meteorology educator as you have a unique way of making meteorology/weather logistics understandable/comprehendible without watering it down as to loose it's significance. It is GREATLY appreciated and stay safe out there!

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much for the support, as always! Fire away if you have any questions!

  • @Stable681
    @Stable6812 жыл бұрын

    Can you do a case study of 4/27/11? I’d love to see an in depth video on that environment

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    That’s high up on my list! Might focus on these case studies more after chase season ends, but I do plan on doing more, including 4-27-11.

  • @dirtytreerat14
    @dirtytreerat14 Жыл бұрын

    So much depth and quality going into such a unique tornado event especially only 13 days after the event. Great work I can't wait to see more case studies!

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the kind words!

  • @hazlogen8577
    @hazlogen8577 Жыл бұрын

    I know this was posted a while ago but this storm event was particularly memorable for myself. I was working at the airport at the time and March 5th and March 6th are days I'll always remember. The 5th, the severe weather which produced this tornado, and then March 6th, we had a surprise snowstorm the day after the tornado. We had a flight divert due to weather on the 5th as well so it was a late night at work that's for sure. Thank you so much for the meteorological dive into this event. You sir get a like and a sub! :)

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much! Yeah, it was kind of a double whammy for SW IA with the tornado outbreak on the 5th and then the snow on the 6th. Pretty wild weather, especially for March!

  • @makrothlovesguys4363
    @makrothlovesguys43632 жыл бұрын

    You should really post more of these videos. I could watch these all day so interesting.

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you; I appreciate that! I do have some more of these videos in the works.

  • @PVPGOD99
    @PVPGOD992 жыл бұрын

    Just got this in my recommended, really enjoyed this breakdown. Very interesting event and glad this showed up in my recommended. Earned a new subscriber and I look forward to more from you :)

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much!

  • @zachmazza2846
    @zachmazza2846 Жыл бұрын

    Very informative you know what your talking about and this is national weather service quality. Reminds me of Skip Talbot. Keep up the good work man subbed.

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the kind words!

  • @iselfnoone
    @iselfnoone Жыл бұрын

    Great video. The topographical analysis is super interesting and isn't covered very often.

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you!

  • @williamtrakas3142
    @williamtrakas31422 жыл бұрын

    Amazing the amount and quality of work you put into these vids. Much appreciated!

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the kind words!

  • @swalchliwx
    @swalchliwx Жыл бұрын

    Excellent study on this event, I learned a lot of useful information amount that would have been very helpful while actively chasing this event. I managed to get stuck in the conga line behind the Winterset wedge but I was able to break away and catch back up to the storm before is produced the Tama EF2. I would have had some really good, close range video of the Tama tornado but I was alone and testing out a new camcorder that switched back into auto focus on me, ruined all of the video I got. I was on Hwy 63 and it crossed easily less than 250 yards in front of me.

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you! Nice intercept of the Tama tornado; we were unable to keep up with it after running into damage in Norwalk. That storm was hauling, so if you fell behind, it was tough to catch back up, especially with the conga line in place.

  • @TAStormChasing
    @TAStormChasing2 жыл бұрын

    Another informative case study. Keep them coming! Also, it is wild how that storm in the 412pm picture went to produce that large tornado in such a short time. It doesn't have the look.. Have a good one 👍

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you! Totally agree…looked like an outflowy mess and then all of a sudden, boom. Was crazy to watch it unfold. Take care!

  • @baileybrucem
    @baileybrucem2 жыл бұрын

    Absolutely LOVE these videos. Thank you thank you thank you!!!

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    My pleasure; thanks so much for watching!

  • @VivianLund
    @VivianLund Жыл бұрын

    This was fantastic, Trey. Thanks for taking the time to make these videos- I learn so much from each one.

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you!!

  • @ruthlerohl2767
    @ruthlerohl27672 ай бұрын

    I grew up in Iowa. Thank you for the deep dive.

  • @29silky
    @29silky2 жыл бұрын

    Phenomenal piece of work Trey, a really great resource with wealth of information in it. Thank you so much. I loved that use of the hodograph superimposed on the radar with the RM motion on the origin, such a neat idea!

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks so much for watching! I appreciate the kind words!

  • @GenericPast
    @GenericPast Жыл бұрын

    We got stuck under the hail core near Orient and one of the haunting things afterwards was seeing all the dead birds in the fields.

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Yeah, I’d never seen so many birds on a chase as I had on this day. Figured a lot of them didn’t fare so well.

  • @BRUtahn
    @BRUtahn2 жыл бұрын

    Dude I've never seen that Joplin footage. Incredible. At the end you could ALREADY see the horizontal vortex!!!

  • @gl3618
    @gl36189 ай бұрын

    Storms down here in the SE seem to cycle slower. They can push out monsters, but when they drop and pick back up, it usually takes a bit to drop another. Sometimes the same storm in a system will be warned or drop one, then leave that state (say Mississippi into Alabama) go back warned for a while and maybe drop one, then drop one later in Georgia and even into the Carolinas. It’s crazy to see the tornado warning tracks of individual storms across multiple states as they track Northward in Easterly moving squall lines. Long track tornadoes are interesting when studying storm strength, but storms holding circulation across an entire region with minimal major cycling is insane too.

  • @addiev3232
    @addiev3232 Жыл бұрын

    This tornado was showing as directly over my house on the radar… really thought my house would be gone when i got home. it ended up having gone a mile north

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Glad it missed you!

  • @envis10n12
    @envis10n122 ай бұрын

    When I started watching I was pretty sure this was the tornado outbreak with the tornado that passed by our house. We were less than half a mile from the path the EF4 took in the Newton area. I actually went outside and recorded the sounds after it passed because it was so eerie.

  • @envis10n12

    @envis10n12

    2 ай бұрын

    kzread.info/dash/bejne/d6V2s6WJj5qqedo.htmlsi=I9DgpjOvNUsy8rWw I forgot I uploaded it to KZread. Checking the path file from NWS and measuring, it passed 0.3 miles from me (590m). Probably the closest I've ever been to a tornado in my entire life.

  • @jeaniehoney1422
    @jeaniehoney1422 Жыл бұрын

    This is the tornado that woke me up and scared me to death

  • @ThunderChasers
    @ThunderChasers4 ай бұрын

    Makes me not feel so bad for missing it. We pulled into Winterset about 5-10 minutes after it hit town.

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    4 ай бұрын

    Dang

  • @mattmichael6792
    @mattmichael6792 Жыл бұрын

    The topography/valley influence on low level winds is a good idea in general but in this area the actual difference in elevations is negligible. The color shading of the topo map gives an exaggerated impression of vertical distance but if you look at the numbers you’ll see they are minuscule particularly in relation to the colossal scale of the atmospheric elements. Overall this presentation is very well done, fascinating and informative. I got in front of this storm east of Des Moines where it was rain wrapped but I could see the upper part of the meso approaching from the SW. The size, rotation rate, lightning, and approach speed was unbelievable for the time of year. I’ve been observing and occasionally chasing storms in Iowa for over three decades and I’ve never seen anything like it. After stopping for less than a minute I rapidly continued south and waited for the storm to pass to my north before following. Unforgettable

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you for watching! This definitely was a storm that's rare to see in Iowa in March; felt more like the middle of May than early March. The topographic influence was just an untested hypothesis of mine; you'd actually be surprised at how subtle terrain features can influence the environment a storm experiences. It more so has to do with subtly changing the wind profile to make it more favorable for tornadoes, rather than being minuscule in relation to the size of the storm itself. The Mogollon Rim Convergence Zone I mentioned from Arizona is also a similarly subtle feature with little elevation change compared to surrounding areas, but it's just enough to back the winds near the surface, and as a result, that area has a high frequency of landspout tornadoes and even some supercells given the slightly enhanced low-level shear. But who knows, it definitely is a hypothesis that needs more testing.

  • @mattmichael6792

    @mattmichael6792

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ConvectiveChronicles Compare the actual elevation changes in feet between Iowa and the other examples. Also, look at historical tornado paths across the region. I don’t think you’re gonna find any correlation with terrain. I could be wrong but I think the only areas where terrain influences boundary layer wind direction (at synoptic or meso scale) would be along the Mississippi and Missouri valleys where elevation changes at the scale of hundreds of feet over relatively short distances.

  • @paradoxicalpoet1525
    @paradoxicalpoet15252 жыл бұрын

    This video was awesome! Along with Jonesboro and Joplin I think another good analog for that would be Jarrell TX. Do you have any thoughts on Jarrell?

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks so much! As far as the background environment goes, Winterset and Jarrell were quite different. Jarrell was an overall marginal severe weather setup with extremely high instability and very low shear. However, the shear was enhanced by an outflow boundary/gravity wave that originated from an MCS in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

  • @paradoxicalpoet1525

    @paradoxicalpoet1525

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah I just meant that the tornado intensified very quickly. But yeah I read up on it last night. It's quite interesting how a marginal setup became a full-scale tornado outbreak

  • @kainhall
    @kainhall2 жыл бұрын

    20:40 thats very similar to the first noodle i saw . driving back from the Dr's (50 miles).... penny hail so hard you could not hear the radio at full blast after it lifted (we pulled over) we saw green clouds...... then a little tiny tornado off to the north of highway 2 . lasted 30 seconds and was gone . . been hooked ever since LOL . . EDIT.... this was in NE montana like, 17 years ago idk we usually get 3 or 4 every year somewhere in the state (one hit billings..... got kinda lucky on that one)

  • @jeaniehoney1422
    @jeaniehoney1422 Жыл бұрын

    It went right around our house that time

  • @ConvectiveChronicles

    @ConvectiveChronicles

    Жыл бұрын

    Glad you made it out ok!

  • @ericascali5427
    @ericascali54274 ай бұрын

    😢😢😢😢😢😢😮😮😮

  • @CoolERoadTrips
    @CoolERoadTrips2 жыл бұрын

    WEWT

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