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Brett Talk: Has the RV Industry Hit Rock Bottom, Or Will it Get Worse?

In our current video series, "Brett Talk," NIRVC President and CEO Brett Davis shares facts, figures, and insights on the current state of the motorhome market, and what the next two years may look like.
Brett will walk you through a thoughtful and detailed analysis of how the economy has impacted the motorhome market and the opportunities it has created for people who are considering purchasing a new motorhome. Coming off the historic boom in motorhome sales the pandemic created, Brett will also share insights on how far the motorhome market will fall and when the bottom may occur.
The objective of every Brett Talk is to inform and educate the audience, and this video will not disappoint. We hope you enjoy learning about the current state of the motorhome market as seen through the eyes of a veteran investor and fund manager.
Chapters:
00:00 - Angie's Intro
01:26 - Brett''s Intro
03:14 - Previous Predictions
08:11 - Why NIRVC Does Projections
12:12 - The RVIA's Projections
15:16 - How NIRVC Makes Their Budget
17:12 - Which Time "Rhymed" With September 2022
24:38 - How Accurate Was NIRVC's Projection?
26:05 - When Will We Hit Bottom?
31:25 - What's in Store For 2024?
34:32 - Stress Testing the RVIA's 2024 Projections
39:37 - Two Things to Reach the Bottom
42:43 - Should You Buy In 2023? Four Key Takeaways
45:44 - Final Words
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ABOUT NIRVC:
There is no other RV dealership that compares to National Indoor RV Centers when it comes to simplifying the motorhome ownership experience. We combine luxury-concierge indoor storage, warranty authorized service center, expert paint & body restoration and repair, as well as our hassle-free sales experience!
NIRVC | Your Dreams, Simplified.

Пікірлер: 39

  • @_GntlStone_
    @_GntlStone_4 ай бұрын

    Manufacturers need to build slower and better, not lay people off. They need to do testing on each rig and reduce customer trips to dealerships for service for the simple things that shouldn't break on the first trip out. That would instill more customer confidence and happiness and would then drive sales. Word of mouth is still the best advertising a company can have. Well done sir. You may not like doing these videos but they are extremely insightful.

  • @markmoniuszko5545

    @markmoniuszko5545

    4 ай бұрын

    You are exactly right!!! The reality is, you cannot force your product to be considered a quality product by baking it into your brand slogan. It has to start with design and carry throughout the build. Having a leadership team look at the unit before it ships does nothing but put lipstick on a pig. Consumers love to hear it, but the poor quality is already built at that point. Quality 101, the Rv industry simply does not understand.

  • @johnmackenzie2858
    @johnmackenzie28584 ай бұрын

    Extremely insightful video, Brett. Your budgeting process should be the syllabus for a business school course. Thank you for sharing the truth.

  • @rbkelly57
    @rbkelly574 ай бұрын

    Brett, I always appreciate your insight & videos. A wealth of information. Knowledge & understanding is so important. Thank you!

  • @wayneallen1048
    @wayneallen10484 ай бұрын

    Wow! What a very great video. Truly inspired by the business acumen, beginning at the top of NIRVC. Thank you so much for sharing every last detail. For those that don’t learn from this, shame on them! I have owned three class A motorhomes, one large fifth wheel and now driving a 2021 Super C. Took possession January 2021. Fortunately got a very good one. We have our serviced at NIRVC in Lewisville, TX. Like any other company NIRVC is not perfect, but I know they striving are to get there. In today’s world, that is step ahead of most others!

  • @Rob0319
    @Rob03194 ай бұрын

    This video just reinforces the fact the we made a great decision to buy a 2024 motorhome from NIRVC. I am by no means an economist, but would love to know Brett's "musings" on NIRVC's other two revenue streams: service and (to a lessor amount) storage.

  • @markvp100
    @markvp1004 ай бұрын

    Brett, your video was extremely informative and frankly eye candy for me. I too own a good sized firm only we build schools and hospitals. Your business sense is similar to mine. I too am a numbers geek. I mean that in a good way. The number that struck me the hardest is the 15 month dealer inventory. If I were in your business, that’s the one that would keep me up. It’s now obvious to me that Newmar’s recent layoffs are just the beginning of a trend across the industry. And since Newmar is now anchored by Winnebago, I feel better about our current Essex order thru your dealership. I’m anxious to talk to you in the coming days. Great video.

  • @rc-zw4ze
    @rc-zw4ze4 ай бұрын

    As always, excellent video and thank you for the insight and view into how your business operates!

  • @ghimert
    @ghimert4 ай бұрын

    Once again a great video that not only charts the past 18 or so months but also provides correlation to historical data on interest rates and inflation. Good job!

  • @rmachetti9717
    @rmachetti97174 ай бұрын

    Brett, thank you I enjoy listening to you! You are very intelligent and knowing your numbers is SO key to success. NIRV is the hands down BEST RV dealership out there!

  • @tomtanous8608
    @tomtanous86084 ай бұрын

    Brett, great analytics! I appreciate the data which helps to validate the outcomes. Great job!

  • @michaelarrickrealestateage1227
    @michaelarrickrealestateage12274 ай бұрын

    Thank you Brett and Angie !!!!! Thank you for leading the way !!

  • @marktwiest5933
    @marktwiest59334 ай бұрын

    Brett what an excellent video! I have a Dutch Star because of Angie and will be looking for support from NIRVC in the future. Your video was well done and full of clear concise data which this retired college professor appreciated! Thank you.

  • @mattross7221
    @mattross72214 ай бұрын

    I bought my 2024 Newmar Dutch Star from NIRVC. Brett always has insightful videos. Since he likes being to the point, I have some blunt questions: • Will National Indoor be in business a year from now? • Since sales is a point-in-time event and service on-going, will NIRVC maintain the right number of qualified technicians? What will the Repair Cycle Time be? • For mid-Atlantic customers (as I am), when will the permanent DC location be open, or will the temporary location close? I bought from NIRVC because of their character and reputation. I hope and believe NIRVC will come out better than most motorhome deals. Fingers crossed.

  • @NIRVC

    @NIRVC

    4 ай бұрын

    Good afternoon mattross7221, First, thank you so much for your business, and for trusting the purchase of your 2024 Dutch Star to NIRVC. Secondly, thank you for investing the time to watch the video, and then leaving me a comment. Now, I’ll do my best to answer each one of your questions, albeit this won’t be a short reply. 1. Question: Will National Indoor RV Centers be in business a year from now? Answer: YES! Sales is only one of our nine revenue streams. Our business model was created specifically for with the cyclical lows of the business cycle in mind. Bottom line, NIRVC is profitable without our sales being profitable. Fortunately, our sales have remained profitability throughout this downturn due to us believing and acting on our projections. We have kept our inventory levels low, our profit margins low, and our inventory turns high, all to inside our sales operations would remain profitable and not be a drag on our earnings from all of our other operations. As of 4/12/24 we have 1.92 months supply of inventory, and when we factor in our retail sold orders, we are turning our inventory capital 8.2 times per year. Which, can only happen if you are a high volume, low margin dealer like we are. 2. Question: Will NIRVC maintain the right number of qualified technicians? Answer: YES! Service is the hub of our wheel. The heart and soul of our company. We were a service, storage, and paint & body company for the first half of our existence. And, our focus hasn’t changed. We firmly believe whoever owns service will own sales, and not the other way around. We have consistently grown our technician base every year of our existence. We devote a lot of resources to the recruiting, training, and retention of technicians. 3. Question: What will the repair cycle time? Answer: We have grown our service billed hours at 28 CAGR since opening our doors for business 14 years ago, while at the same time reducing our time per repair every year. Each year we set new records in both, and I see both trends continuing well into the future because of both our focus, and the insatiable demand for service. Since you own a Newmar I will share this service stat with you. Newmar has a one year warranty and sold 927 diesel coaches in 2023. We did some amount of warranty work on 862 unique Newmar diesel VIN numbers. Put another way, we did warranty service on 93% of all Newmar diesel coaches sold! And, our percentages are very similar for Entegra as well. 4. Question: When will the permanent DC location be be open, or will the temporary location close? Answer: Like all our other locations, our temporary location will not close until we are able to build and move into our permanent location. Prince William County has been by far the hardest place to try and build our permanent building. We have had three different tracts of land under contract, all three zoned for what we do, but we could not obtain any Special Use Permits. I’m sure it would much easier if we were building a data center, by RV Sales, Service, and Storage are persona non grata. However, the difficulty is what creates the opportunity! We are currently working on a fourth tract and have our fingers crossed we will be able to get this one over the goal line. But, we are in DC to stay! I hope this helps annswer all your questions and concerns. Onward, Brett

  • @markmoniuszko5545
    @markmoniuszko55454 ай бұрын

    Once again, Brett demonstrates why NIRVC is the best choice when choosing an RV dealership to partner with! It would be easy to follow the coattails of RVIA and falsely inflate consumer confidence, but the approach of dealing with data to be honest about the reality is the NIRVC way. The manufacturers do need to slow down production. Does this mean letting some people go? Maybe. These are the times when you evaluate your processes and your talent, in that order. If you have strong processes in place, then evaluate the team to see if they are capable of following those processes. If your processes have room for improvement, then this is the time to slow down production and give the people building these coaches the tools to succeed. Unfortunately, the RV industry is velocity focused, and the first cuts that are made are in Quality and Engineering Design, these areas are foolishly considered “non essential” to the RV industry. The smart manufacturers will survive this, the foolish ones will keep pushing the same poor quality. If anything, this is the time the consumers can use their dollars to say, “this isn’t good enough” and drive better quality to an industry that is decades behind in quality and processes. Brett is a genius who is passionate about the industry, this video is further evidence of that. Great video!!

  • @michaellloyd4978
    @michaellloyd49784 ай бұрын

    Outstanding! Loved every minute

  • @kirkchubbs8284
    @kirkchubbs82844 ай бұрын

    A BIG THANK YOU for taking the time to build this template with facts and trends with both the RV industry and the S&P/ treasury bonds so we can understand the correlation. We lived the 2022 Class A market when we purchased our DS. When we purchased our Coach, two year old coach’s we’re selling for 4% to 5% more than our new Coach price. Your prediction of late 2025 or early 2026 runs parallel and in line with the basic economy that most people understand to see any kind of recovery. I hope people take all this information and use it to see how a RV purchase in this financial climate could fit in to their financial situation. On a side note of how manufacturers are tighten the belt more. I read online that Newmar’s 2025 RV offering have been streamlined. It will be a interesting in the 2025 RV world and conversation in June at the VPI event will most likely be so different than they have been in the past. The VIP event opens the curtains to a new way to purchase and to have dreams come true if you just grab the opportunity and attend. Thanks again….

  • @RVourWay
    @RVourWay4 ай бұрын

    Fascinating review of the numbers!

  • @joebauer5905
    @joebauer59054 ай бұрын

    Facts,figures,data and statistics…..you can’t argue with the numbers….thank you Brett for allowing all of us mere mortals an insight into all this amazing info…it is greatly appreciated….best jb

  • @let_it_ride
    @let_it_ride4 ай бұрын

    Excellent!

  • @Bigtex124
    @Bigtex1244 ай бұрын

    Very informative presentation. Nicely done, Brett.

  • @brucebingham5865
    @brucebingham58654 ай бұрын

    Thank you Brett for taking so much of your time to help educate the RV community. For those that may be offended by your data, they should do as you do and sharpen their pencil and do better predicting, for they seem a bit off. I rest assured doing business with NIRVC because they (you) operate on facts and data, not dreams and hopes. We know your company will be around to service us in the future!

  • @kcf955
    @kcf9554 ай бұрын

    I really appreciate your upfront analysis of the past and current economics of the motorized RV industry. Another reason after 15 years being an RV'r (5th wheels), glad I'm working with NIRVC to make the jump to a coach. Keep up the strong work!

  • @NIRVC

    @NIRVC

    4 ай бұрын

    Hi KCF955! I’m Director of Sales at NIRVC and I’m thrilled to hear you are working with one of our RV Lifestyle Specialist! Please let me know if there is anything I can help you with now or in the future. Angie@nirvc.com

  • @kcf955
    @kcf9554 ай бұрын

    Would love to see NIRVC do a companion video on motorized RV repairs. I imagine over the years NIRVC has a gold mine of data. Repairs by brand, chassis, 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year, etc. Really enlightening would be pre-delivery repairs/fixes before a customer takes delivery and leaves the dealership. We know the COVID years had their QC issues, will the slowdown have the opposite effect, less QC issues? Thank you again!

  • @creativelivingbygillgillia6826
    @creativelivingbygillgillia68264 ай бұрын

    Brett, I watch all of your videos and definitely will be buying My Motorhome from NIRVC.

  • @mikeobrien2831
    @mikeobrien28314 ай бұрын

    That was a great video very informative. But the problem I see is a lack of inventory over the next few years and those with money will not be able to find what they are wanting. Thanks Brett you did a great job!

  • @earlhunt2815
    @earlhunt28154 ай бұрын

    Awesome data walk through!! I wish more universities would resurrect teaching data based statistics for business AND government projections. I'm biased because that's how I made my living. Has John Kotter noted: most businesses and government project by emotion and not data. I found this to be painfully true.

  • @marychristie6194
    @marychristie61944 ай бұрын

    Very interesting-We had our 1 shot to upgrade in 2022 -For us it’s not only the purchase but the whole up keep of a Motorhome-From storage to repairs to the money it costs to use it -gas, campgrounds and fees for parks, rallies etc -All these things have gone up in price two fold maybe more-so in order for us to use the one we have, and pay for all the stuff, at this time we can’t buy another one -Just our situation ⭐️🤷‍♀️🚌🇺🇸

  • @mikelamay7875
    @mikelamay78754 ай бұрын

    your intelligence is so appreciated! I subscribed!

  • @rstspecos
    @rstspecos4 ай бұрын

    Wow! soooo deep but very good information. Thank you and no bad comments from me sir! You definately know your stuff!!

  • @richardcampbell9225
    @richardcampbell92254 ай бұрын

    As always, a methodical and educational video. Yikes, 15 months of inventory could be devastating for some dealers. Such a significant decline in production seems unlikely. It is disappointing and unfortunate you could possibly receive any hate messages for your videos. Thank you for the effort it takes to share these data. Rick

  • @thecasualrver
    @thecasualrver4 ай бұрын

    I love this type of data!

  • @RickandDarcirvadventures
    @RickandDarcirvadventures4 ай бұрын

    We want to buy from you but we have to sell our 2011 Jayco Greyhawk 31DS first.

  • @markm8972
    @markm89724 ай бұрын

    Really great video. Appreciate all the info and work that went into this. Anybody want to buy a '21 Dutchstar? (kidding!)

  • @CarieSaad
    @CarieSaad4 ай бұрын

    Thank Joe Biden for this dumpster fire of an economy.

  • @AWOLlcdrpeterson
    @AWOLlcdrpeterson4 ай бұрын

    Thanks Brett! Always appreciate the industry insights and love your quotes!

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