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Demelo is not that great his numbers are inflated by 44's play. Demelo cannot win battles on the boards. He has NO upside sorry.
@TopLyneMedia26 күн бұрын
Appreciate the comment, it’s okay to be wrong. At 31, who’s expecting upside? We know who he is, and that’s a very good 2nd pairing dman. Both partners have benefitted from each other, but of course 44 is the horse
@tconapauli163026 күн бұрын
AGREE ON VILLI N MILLER AS THURD PAIRN, MAYB STAN 7TH BUT PIONK WIT SAMBERG SCARES ME, LIKE THE YOUTH MOVEMENT COULD SEE SALO PUSHN INTO LINEUP IN JAN HOW BOUT RUTGER N AI FOR NECAS ALLTHO LILGREN N ROBERTSON WRKS
@TopLyneMedia26 күн бұрын
I’d do either of those buddy! Samberg-Pionk scares me too LOL
@gilbertmarion386727 күн бұрын
Another fun n enlightening episode..I’m at my cabin most of the summer n haven’t seen a lot of content lately but glad I got updated..I actually thought the lack of action from Chevy was a bad thing but you’ve talked me into this being ok..have a great summer boys
@TopLyneMedia26 күн бұрын
Thank you Gilbert, have a fantastic summer and enjoy the cabin !
@Al_Camino7727 күн бұрын
Here’s my final thoughts on PoMo. That post game shout out made me want to puke. I can’t prove it but I’d bet he knew exactly what he’d say if he won. That guy is so full shit his eyes are brown. How he gets to skate on Blake Wheelers behaviour during his tenure is inexcusable. It’s basically an open secret now with multiple media personalities notable Jeff Hamilton hinting at it on a recent WST interview. Much like how it was sacrilege to even hint the Chipman was/is heavily involved in ALL hockey ops decisions and is now accepted as truth but never stated. Nik, keep up your great work and thank you for attending my Ted Talk.
@TopLyneMedia26 күн бұрын
Al Camino, I love it man. As I mentioned in there I don’t trust him as far as I can throw em. I look forward to your replies always man!
@ChrisSmith-pm1vx27 күн бұрын
Chevy is playing hold em with one card.
@TopLyneMedia27 күн бұрын
LOL made me laugh
@ChrisSmith-pm1vx27 күн бұрын
You also seem to think the jets will be in every deal or signing. This roster won't make the playoffs.
@TopLyneMedia27 күн бұрын
The Jets will be in every signing or trade? And I think this? In this market? Not even close Potentially won’t, don’t see that as a bad thing for a year personally. Rather miss and draft higher than get rolled round 1 year over year
@TheWailer5627 күн бұрын
My thoughts on the topics presented: Demelo contract: Totally agree on fair market value on his individual skill set. Slight disagree on hidden value, I think the extra value won't be on his individual contributions, but on his partner most likely playing his best hockey with Demelo on the ice. Elevating his partner is where the Jets get real value out of that 4.9M schmidt buyout: Totally agree, great minds think alike. No notes Draft: On the picks, I think they're largely solid. Freij looks intriguing as a really good skating lefty. He could be a Tanev-type energy guy going full speed, full-time. Dont have much to say on the Fin C, well see how that goes. And with your last pick why not throw a dart at a 6'6" C that's shown some flashes. Rutger: I was route 1 personally, I think adding an impact young player helps the age group we have in Vilardi-Barlow Age group and focuses those primes at similar times. I think there could be more than a roster spot as a sticking point between the 2. If it was just that with all the F contracts ending it would just mean signing in the spring and I would doubt that plan would create the irreparable situation we hearing about. If it is just not being promised a spot then bye, I have no issues with the org taking the stance that roster spots aren't won on the negotiating table. FAs: Dillon will be the only one I'll truly miss but I can see why he wasn't retained. Happy for LB, was never coming back would have preferred he go out east lol. Missing Mony is a massive blessing in disguise that some may not realize for 2-3 years Signings: I think Comrie is a cheap vibes pickup, I have no issues with it, I'd rather pay 800k for vibes than 6M. Kakhonen is there to fight for Helle's backup spot with Comrie. Miller will give Ville a solid D partner on the 3rd pair, he's a trigger guy from the blue line while Ville is a pure distributor, so they could work pretty well. YOUTH: I have so much time for Lambert 2C with a long runway. He had a similar production season as KFC with an arguably worse Moose team and has shown to be a true C given his struggles at Wing from his D-1 year to until he was sent to Seattle. I loved watching him this past year and has made some truly elite plays. Salo could easily be a very good 2RD, skating and a mean streak combo in an RHD is such a good find in the 2nd. I have time for Chibby and Barlow in 2-3 years. 1 or 2 more guys in this age range coming back in a trade working out and the future is real bright
@TopLyneMedia27 күн бұрын
Julien, we’ve been going back and forth elsewhere all day, so not going to spend too much time answering point for point Just wanted to say, thank you for being such a great presence in our comments, and jets socials, always enjoy how much thought you put into these discussion 🫡
@TheWailer5627 күн бұрын
@@TopLyneMedia totally understand lol. Happy to keep having meaningful discussions going.
@dondawson870027 күн бұрын
Jets have a new coaching staff, and we are finally giving the prospects a chance, we have alot to look forward to as Jets fans
@TopLyneMedia27 күн бұрын
Agreed
@___db_._27 күн бұрын
Good pod guys. I agree with you on most of your points. Avoided the Mony grenade (but we were trying so…). Chance for the young guys to show their stuff - yes! Finally. Signings and draft picks this year - solid. However, let’s not kid ourselves, this is a damaged organization that now has virtually no chance at the Cup for at least another 3-4 years, if at all. Wpg is the least favourable destination in the league. We can’t change the Canadian tax structure. We can’t change the Wpg winter. Spare few want to be here….and now it’s prospects. I don’t buy the McG no ice time / Moose argument….I’m with Sean Reynold….McG didn’t want to be here a la CutterG. That one is on management. They are paid to know trends and risks. Jets can’t and shouldn’t have gone to the draft table and drafted a US college kid in the 1st, knowing the reputation of the team. The risk has always been there…we got lucky with KFC so far (but he’s almost assuredly leaving), got a few years from Trouba. Many other examples with Adam Fox leading the way. And let’s not even talk about prospect management… But as you said, plan B is an option I don’t mind going down even though it likely lead to short term pain (lottery in our near future). But I’m looking forward to seeing Perfetti, Lambert, Heinola and Salo and then Chib and Barlow get their trials by fire. Heck, even Stanley….okay I went off the rails there.
@TopLyneMedia27 күн бұрын
The fact we were trying and failed could definitely be looked at as a negative on management. I’m just most excited that we arrived at a place I wanted this org to end up at My confidence is still rather short with where it goes from here, but this situation is ideal. Hard to disagree with yourself on it being a damaged organization with no chance at a cup in that window. I think very few would disagree truly. Yes to all the above on Winnipeg and what it is, and I could see the case for Renny nailing this. At the end, regardless of conclusion, we do arrive at the same spot and that it’s this org got themselves into this pickle and should’ve known better, I put that on them more than anyone. It’s frustrating. Plan B was always the plan in Winnipeg that gives the Jets a long term *chance*, if could fail. But Plan A… was org suicide. 1st round playoff ceiling gradually drifting into an old, expensive rebuild with no real assets. We avoided that, and for that, I’m thankful
@phyllis525627 күн бұрын
Great show Nik and Brady.... in answer to your question about Slafkovsky, he's getting 7.6m x 8 years = 60.8m. Really good thoughts all around. I support going with a youth movement, with guidance by the vets on the team. I think that's the key to success for this team.
@TopLyneMedia27 күн бұрын
Thanks Phyllis! Also thanks for the correction! I really think it’ll work itself out even if it wasn’t Plan A. I was never big on Plan A
@helenkaiser3145Ай бұрын
I don't think this 🤔 team will go to far if they don't add the pieces that are desperately needed 😊😊
@TopLyneMediaАй бұрын
We shall see! ☺️
@tconapauli1630Ай бұрын
WAT IM FIRED LOL SAW DA COMMENT COULDN REACT SOOO IM HERE TO LISTEN N HARASS U LOL SOOO IM JUS STARTN SHO N WILL CHIME IN AGAIN😂
@tconapauli1630Ай бұрын
NOT SURE WAT UP WIT U BUT HOPE THINGS R BETTER N GOOD GD SHOW
@TopLyneMediaАй бұрын
@@tconapauli1630thanks man, been dealing with something personal. Starting to come around. Thanks for listening
@Al_Camino77Ай бұрын
So just to add to your Paul Maurice comment. Jeff Hamilton essentially admitted on WST in reference to a Liane return that Blake Wheeler was basically an asshole at best and a bully at worst. How in the hell can an NHL coach allow that to happen to a number 2 overall pick and likely others? A pick that they won a lottery and moved 8 spots to get. I’ve posted on other platforms and the reply is usually Pomo wanted to change it but Chevy wouldn’t. 😅 that post game interview made me want to puke.
@dondawson8700Ай бұрын
The development issues also include putting Chisholm and Kovacevic on waivers with little to no attempt to play them in the NHL, both are full time NHLers, instead they keep their 8 yr project Logan Stanley who has never shown even close to the talent Jets management thinks he has. As for Bones being the culture champion, maybe the first year, but his handling of the entire line up in the second half of the year was peewee league stuff at best, and I believe they asked him to retire, as they now need to rebuild the culture again. 2 steps forward then a whole bunch backwards
@TopLyneMediaАй бұрын
Certainly feels that way, doesn’t it.
@choicestk-pv4wsАй бұрын
I think the biggest difference in what you think needs to be done with the Jets is how you view this team: - 1) looks at last year and thinks that was a great year we are close we need to go for it. 2) Looks at the Jets playoff performance and how the teams that made deep runs have looked, the roster problems and say we are not even close. Jets I believe incorrectly view themselves as a contender and you have to compete for a role because we are a good team. This organization is delusional they have way overestimated how good this team is based on regular season performance. I am tired of hearing about this is a good team based on the regular season this team won last year because they are deeper than most teams in the league not because they have elite talent. Fans and media memebers point to measuring stick games against The Panthers, Rangers, Avalanche, Stars, etc. Newsflash these teams are elite playoff contenders with elite talent they do not care about playing the Winnipeg Jets on a random friday night in November or January they are playing the regular season to get to the playoffs and try to win a cup it means nothing. The Rutger McGroarty situation stems from a team that always bases it decisions on the short term and winning now. It is basically managerial malpractice you have to a vison and bechmarks for a team 3, 5, 10 years down the line and not to view McGroarty as an essential piece in this team future is just incompetence. Would it have been that difficult to make a concession to a key player in your future plans and say we are guaranteeing you 20 games in the NHL to start next year and we will re-evaluate after those 20 games. As an organzitaion you have to adapt or die, and after the Cutter Gauthier situation last year teams were on notice that this was an option players are now going to use. This generation of players is not going to tolerate being maniputlated and strung along by teams. The Jets are a decade behind and still suffer from the idea that they hold all the cards. Wake up players have all the power and it's not like they haven't dealt with situations like Trouba and PLD, the result they had to capitulate. The Jets always operate from the most conservative and safe route - the problem with this is that it is like the line from the move Rounders - "You can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle. But you can’t win much either." At some point you have to be agressive and truly go for it and playing young players is a risk but one you have to take to advance the team. Long story short the Jets short-sighted, rigid management style has cost this team arguably its most important and valuable player. It appeaers Rick Bowness had one more present for the Jet's fans and organization setting an nuclear bomb and blowing up the current and future roster because of his stubborn deployment and roster management decisions. If you detach yourself and look at this from Rutger McGroarty's view why would want to play for this organization based on how all the prospects on this team have been treated and the lack of vision that is rampant at this point. Sorry for the long winded rant but this is frustrating and should never have got to this point.
@TopLyneMediaАй бұрын
No need to apologize for the rant, loved to read it all and nice to hear from people who care so much/see things very similar to myself!
@williamarmour1656Ай бұрын
Same 'development' plan as Bergevin & the Chicago tree. Sorry
@TheWailer56Ай бұрын
Just started listening, the defaulting to playing vets who we know have serious faults over young players who might have serious faults is assanine. Now at the development and roster construction, how you laid it out it seems like they have a specific kind of roster they want to build and try and make that work rather than seeing their collection of players and thinking “how do we maximize what we have”.
@Al_Camino77Ай бұрын
How long before noted hockey guy Mark Chipman takes some blame. That podcast episode could be a banger. Probably best saved until the rebuild in 2 years.
@Al_Camino77Ай бұрын
What an absolute disaster. There is an above average chance this team misses the playoffs if a few things don’t go exactly to plan. This could be Calgary 2.0
@TopLyneMediaАй бұрын
It could end up there with a bad summer..
@helenkaiser3145Ай бұрын
The defense really needs some rough and tough defensemen😊
@helenkaiser3145Ай бұрын
I'm wondering why ehlers wants out because he's the fastest player and they never give him ice time 😮
@dondawson87002 ай бұрын
I was 50 / 50 on the Arniel hiring, but do feel better now that they are bringing in 2 new assists and the acknowledgment that analytics need to be a bigger part of the go forward plan. I was glad to hear of the potential PIONK landing spots. As much as we need a 2C, we need to revamp the right side of the D even more, if we go to camp with Pionk and Schmidt as 2 of the right side guys, it will be another lost season. The Avs really pressured Pionk and he was a turn over machine.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Yeah he definitely had a comforting PR day, day 1. We’ll see where it all leads. If Pionk is back next year, we know where this season ends, it’s really that simple for me. He can single handedly sink a team, especially on org that sees him for something he is not
@choicestk-pv4ws2 ай бұрын
I don't think Jets fans realize how much this roster needs to be changed / restructured. This team is a lot older than most people realize with a lot of the core pieces reaching 30 years old and on the downhill side of their peak performance curve. Scheifele is 31 and has probably 2 more years as a low-end 1c ideally he is your 2c. Connor is 27 and with 2 years remaining on his contract - if you give him another contract it will be in his year 30 season. If in the next 2 years he has an outlier 50 goal or more season that contract is 11 million plus with probably 6 years or more. If the Jets sign him that has the potential to look like a massive mistake for 3 years or more. That also creates a situation where you have a large amount of cap space tied up in 3 players 30+. Everyone is talking about dealing Ehlers but Connor is the trade piece that can bring a big return and get the age balance more in line. Appleton, Iafallo, and Gustafsson are roster cloggers competent NHL bottom six players with high floors but low ceilings that should not be blocking Chibrikov, Lambert, or Barron from having roster spots or moving up in the line structure. Appleton and Gustafsson in particular could be appealing as throw ins for a team that has a salary cap crunch say like Carolina. Next year you potentially have Perfetti (if he signs a 2 year bridge deal), Vilardi, Samberg and Barron all up for contracts. So the cap structure is only going to get more complicated. Finally the Defence is a mess with the players currently signed you basically have 2 viable pieces in Morrisey and Samberg. Ideally you bring back Dillon and DeMelo, but DeMelo is the key you can put him on the top pair and if you are able to bring in an upgrade for the first pair you can move him down to the second pair. You have to get both Heinola and Salomonsson on the club to start the year, your defence has the same issues with age as the forward group. Schmidt and Pionk contracts are both anchors and you would want to move both but if I have to choose one to move on from it is Pionk. Schmidt can be a 3rd pair / 7th defender. The common misconception is that your roster needs to be complete by the first game of the year, Jets need to put as much youth on the roster to start the year as possible and then re-evaluate. There will be deals and bargains that come available during the season and if something isn't working be ready to pounce.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
I don’t think it’s talked about nearly enough. This core is past its best before date, and in their decline phase with nothing to show. Getting older and continuing to try and do something that won’t happen, will only kill this org for the next half decade to decade. They NEED to balance this roster with youth. And everyone outside TNSE who understands the league economics and roster building should realize KFC this summer is the guy to move. The scheifele thing is arguably the biggest “problem” cause he’s a 2C on a cup contender making $8.5M rest of his career now. You absolutely need a high end 2C, and preferably one with potential to be a 1C. At worst. Agreed wholeheartedly on the roster cloggers. There’s no reason an Iaffalo should be back for example. That $4M is significantly better used elsewhere. Appleton as well, but they love him more than any org. Agreed on the D convo top to bottom. Truly what I’m most fascinated by this summer personally. And yuppppp, you can give the kids a run for the first 3/4 and upgrade spots at the deadline. They need to swing for youth and upside. Not double down on this aging product. I think it’s a pretty safe “under” on them repeating this years “success” and taking another step this coming year. Focus on years 2-4 from here
@helenkaiser3145Ай бұрын
I'm wondering why they signed 55 when you look at his age 🤔 😳 😕
@TheWailer562 ай бұрын
The Cirelli idea threw me for a loop lol. Ideally, you do keep Perfetti as the Jets do have a good group of prospects in a similar age range that could develop into the next core. Agree that KC is the piece to deal in an ideal world, his goalscoring ability should drive up the price higher relative to impact than what you will get with Ehlers. I like Schneider as a target but Zegras has me intrigued after hearing the pod. Keep up the great work guys.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
I knew that one was gonna be “out there” for the listeners, was holding that one tight to the vest until podcast LOL Agreed in your ideal approaches for sure. And yeah, it’s very obvious to any outside onlooker who understands the league economy KC is the move, but not the Winnipeg way unfortunately. Thank you 🙏
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
Based on what Commodore said, Arniel would have had to grow by leaps and bounds to avoid a repeat. Proof will be in the playoffs.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
We shall see. Clean slate for me, gotta judge him on his work here now, definitely reasons to be concerned, hope he has grown leaps and bounds and at least has talked so far (actions will tell more, always) like someone self reflective and accountable. We shall see
@phyllis52562 ай бұрын
Awesome show, Nik... I always enjoy Brandon's takes when he makes an appearance on WST and it was a pleasure to hear the two of you chopping it up on all things Jets.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Thanks Phyllis! Really enjoyed recording this one! Glad you enjoyed it!
@phyllis52562 ай бұрын
Great thoughts, Nik.... and one more thing not mentioned: Brad Lauer being let go... that's progress as well. So we'll have new PP and PK coaches. One thing that struck me that Arnie mentioned in his presser was that he had plans for every single Jets player as part of his interview. He's had the inside track as to how the boys play and from what I'm hearing, the team supports having him there as head coach. Which means we don't need to wait 1-2 years for some of them to buy into a new coach's system, like some of them did for Coach Bowness. I think we're in good hands with Arnie and I'll give him some time to acclimitize to being there in the driver's seat. Next thing up, who do we want to see as Associate coach and PP/PK coach. Something to keep in mind with analytics, we seem to have two camps of thought in Jets fans... some have no tolerance for looking at analytics and strictly rely on the "eye test" and others (like me and you) love to see the numbers side of things. So he's getting pushback from both sides of fans, no matter which direction he goes. My hope is he can tune out the noise and do a well balanced approach to every game once the season starts, be quick to react when games are not flowing and that he will build a solid plan to bring in our kids once they are ready to play.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Yes I totally missed the Brad Lauer point which was good to hear yesterday. Really curious who they bring in to fill those roles. It was a good idea from a PR standpoint for the Arniel brand, and he touched on slot of key things, as you’ve very eloquently highlighted above that could/should have meaningful impacts Clean slate for me, he’ll be judged on how he does, whether I loved the process the upper management took to arrive there or not!
@choicestk-pv4ws2 ай бұрын
The interview process at this point sounds like window dressing more so than due dilligence. Unfortunately, this team seems to think they are a contender that just needs to get over the top but in reality they are 5 steps into their journey up the hill. You would think that the Jets as a small market team with a lot of inhernt disadvantages would have been looking for any edge they could get (analytics) to compete with the advantages of the bigger market teams. As I have said before the other problem you will have with True North is they are terrified of a rebuild or not being competitive , this almost assures you of the veteran win now model which is not really coducive to give young players a large role they can grow into. This team seems to be in perpetual run it back mode which would be understandable if you made it to a coference final but not after two first round exits where you did not even look competitive.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Rewicki and I went off on the process in the podcast dropping tmrw. It was definitely a facade. I’m really worried they over compensate the wrong direction because of this belief, and it’s going to set us back in so many ways for a while to come. Not rebuilding last year will forever be a whiff as far as cup aspirations go. The business itself won’t say it out loud, but I imagine they are content with 3 playoff home games a year. Sad stuff
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
I missed it but was Chipper in attendance?
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
He wasn’t at the podium, no idea about in the room
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
@@TopLyneMedia I was worried that he was at the podium again a la the Maurice extension in 2019.
@twill56262 ай бұрын
2 points: 1. The fact that Arniel wasn’t even looked at by any other organization tells you everything you need to know about this hire. The biggest concern I have about Arniel is, since he wasn’t being sought by any other org, he’ll probably be looking to be as successful as possible because he knows if he isn’t successful here, his HC dreams are dead. Which means he’s not going to want to have rookies in the lineup because he’s going to feel like he can’t deal with their mistakes. I’d say you might see rookies in the lineup for the first 10-20ish games, then he’ll fall back on the vets because he’ll feel the pressure to be successful which, based on the vets we have, also probably won’t work. If we’re lucky, we’ll get swept in the first round and everyone will say that Arniel’s first year as coach was a rousing success, when really it’ll just be a case of us digging ourselves deeper into the hole we are already in right now. 2. This team abandoned the ‘draft and develop’ model at the first whiff of success, and has failed to see the need to go back to it ever since. Now they’re stuck in this perpetual loop of chasing waterfalls, hoping that they can recreate the magic of 2018, without realizing that they no longer have the horses.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
I think you couldn’t me more accurate on Point 1, and we will continue to push on that. I have the exact same fears you do 2. It is so weird that they abandoned it despite it leading to their best season. I’ll never understand that
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
Great points. And completely true and rarely discussed by the media in this town.
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
This kinda of happened in the fabled youth season of 16-17. After scratching Thorburn and Stuart early in the year they ended up sending Petan, Connor back down because they weren’t performing despite being stapled to terrible line-mates. And Trouba’s agent basically insinuated because being stapled to Stuart playing 3rd pair minutes for 3 years was costing him money as a reason he held out.
@TheWailer562 ай бұрын
He had a good enough press conference to get me to believe in his plan. Now Let’s see that plan on action.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Actions > words for sure But comforting conference no doubt about it
@BoboMcBooboy2 ай бұрын
So, i personally have to remain true to my morals and ethics when I say i HATE the Vegas model. I do value loyalty. Id rather win a cup loyal then disloyalty like vegas. But that said. Id like to win a cup vs not winning at all 😂 people arent all that excited. Ill just take the opposite view for now... Remember after Tampa got run out of the first round by Columbus and people wanted coop fired, and it was time to change shit in Tampa... (Beyond GM leaving to go to Detroit...) I really hope thats sorta similar to this. I am certainly not in the camp that legit ANYBODY else would have been a better option.. so ill wait and see for judgement. Im skeptical if the players indeed WANT this hire tho. Its likely because Arnie has played good coach. What happens now when he needs to play bad?
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
I’m sorry, comparing Scott Arniel to Jon Cooper is one of the most insane reaches I’ve seen to date 😅
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
The last paragraph is a huge thing not many are considering
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
Didn’t they hire Chevy, Zinger and Noel without interviewing anyone? If at first you don’t succeed….
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
They love their model more than anyone else it seems
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
Bold prediction…22/17/62 playing 20 minutes a night. Can’t wait! What could possibly go wrong? Why do i have a feeling this is going to blow up in Chippers face? What kind of leash does he get?
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
It’s Chipman, he’s likely got a 3 year contract with a 2 year extension already lined up.
@twill56262 ай бұрын
Yay.😐 I’m so excited.😐 I don’t know what to do with myself.😐 That’ll put bums in seats. 😐
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Thrilling eh
@twill56262 ай бұрын
@@TopLyneMedia I just want to see how this is going to affect season ticket sales.
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
So watched this again and I have convinced myself that trading Connor is the easiest way to get the ship righted. Someone will way over pay for that guy. That and realizing Adam Lowry is not a poor man’s Bergeron.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
It’s really the one asset you can move and “win a deal” with. Rather trade a year too early than a year too late…
@dondawson87002 ай бұрын
Good Show, lots of ground covered. I agree the D needs to be the focus this off season Demelo is the priority to sign, Ville has to be allowed to play so the team can see what they have ( we can't lose another D prospect to waivers, who was never given a chance) We have to trade for a top 4 RHD, probably the cost of a rooster player or top prospect Use next season to give some of the other prospects actual auditions of 10 game stretches' to see if they are ready or need more seasoning or don't fit at all, not just a game here or game there I like watching 27 as much as anyone, when he is going. Teams ( Avs are the most recent example )have figured it out that if you Gap up on him and don't let him get going with a head of steam he is a lot less effective, he also becomes very frustrated and becomes even less effective. That's my feel on why he is a no show in the playoffs PS: As I watch the playoffs and see the impact Lafreniere is having, you only have to go back to the 2023 season where he was struggling, people were calling him a bust, and there were numerous trade rumors. instead Laviolette and the coaches kept him the line up and helped him get his confidence up and game going, and see the results. The Jets did the exact opposite with Perfetti, for that reason alone I am glad Bones is gone
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Thank you Don! Always try and dive into as many angles as possible, glad we covered a lot of ground you were looking for! Demelo definitely #1 priority HAVE to give Ville runway next year, or he’ll be the singular prospect asset they burned the hardest if they lost him for nothing. They really should approach next year with that in mind There definitely could be a lot of validity to the Ehlers take there! Man… LaF has really figured it out and been a treat to watch. I stare over at Dallas for the same reasons this playoff run as well
@choicestk-pv4ws2 ай бұрын
I think the coaching hire will tell you everything you need to know about how the off-season is going to go. If they decide to go with Scott Anriel it will be only the moves that are required and small tweaks but not he massive changes that really need to happen. Speaking of Arniel, I feel like he is getting a free pass because of the limited success he had early with Bowness out. If you dig just a little deeper and not count overtime loses as it's own category his record the two times Bowness was out was 10 - 7 and the record against teams that made the playoffs was 3 -5. Combine that with a penalty kill that was ineffective all year doesn't paint the picture of someone who can make the necessary in game or post game adjustments to be a difference maker or a step up from what Rick Bowness was able to accomplish. I truly believe that Bowness changed the culture , buy-in and effort level of the team but they succeded because of who they are as players and not anything tactically or strategically that the coaching staff did. All this points to hiring a coach that can build on what Bowness established so someone who can maintain the culture, effort and buy-in levels but can make in game and post game adjustments as well as be able to incorporate tools at their disposal like analytics. Arniel is like playing blackjack and staying on 15 when the dealer has a face card - you can win with that strategy but statistically you will lose in the long run especially if the ultimate goal is a long playoff run.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Yeah this coaching hire feels pretty big this summer. And there’s some quality options out there. Going to Arniel route will be looked at as “safe”. But it may be the biggest risk on the market…..
@gilbertmarion38672 ай бұрын
Once again I enjoyed listening to both of your thoughts..hoping Chevy can make the improvements necessary to win another 50 n be a real threat next season
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Here’s to hoping! Big offseason ahead
@ZeroGhostEight2 ай бұрын
Pionk is this year's Wheeler. If he's still here next year, I'm probably not investing time because you know it's not going anywhere
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
100%
@ZeroGhostEight2 ай бұрын
I think nik goes just because why in the world would be consider staying. And there even before the fact that the org definitely isn't smart enough to understand the they have NO ONE who sits what he does for us😂
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Yeah this move has a very real chance of turning things sideways
@TheWailer562 ай бұрын
I really like the idea of a stop-gap year, letting the young guys ferment and ready to contribute on ELCs. Some combination of Lambert, Chibrikov, Rutger, Salo, and Ville will work and contribute on really cheap contracts. There are too many promising names there for none of them to work out. Odds are there are 1 or 2 that don't work and they are still young enough to carry value to trade for good current help. Moving off a Vet Forward makes sense for this, not just the big two I'll mention in a bit, but maybe another as well. While my preference would be for Appleton, just had a career year and I doubt he makes this the new norm, I feel like Iafallo would be the more likely culprit just seemed like one of the last guy to be considered when constructing lines. I would much prefer the 81 trade over the 27 trade. There are player traits/skills that make GMs put blinders on and overpay. 81's pure goalscoring could drive up the price like how PLD having big, top-6 center potential did for his return. What makes Ehlers effective has historically been undervalued so the odds of winning that trade in terms of replacing his impact are much lower. Personally, on the D end I think Salo at least starts in the AHL. He'll be turning 20 in August right before training camp and has little experience on the NA ice from what I remember. I think he very well get up to the NHL at some point, our blue line is unlikely to be as injury-free as it was last year and he is a quality RHD. I think the transition will happen much faster if he gets 25 minutes a night with the moose and he can join full-time around Christmas/New Year's. The actual structure of the D is so up in the air projecting anything concrete is damn near impossible. Only for sures are Morrissey, Samberg, Ville, 1 of Pionk/Schmidt, and eventually Salo sometime in the next calendar year. I really enjoyed the "Breif Week" and am excited to see how this all shakes out over the summer.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
I really think a “bridge year” is the best way for this org to try and win in the first half of those 37/55 deals, and I think you can still sneak a playoff round in with it. All those guys won’t necessarily hit, but I don’t see like with what you’re saying why at least 1-2 won’t. Couldn’t agree more with your breakdown on 81 vs 27 and how the league tends to value both skill sets. This is where smart teams make the hard choice to better the franchise. Yeah, it’s going to take a lot of time for the full D picture to come into play right now. Just can go so many ways as of today! Thanks for checking them all out and we are glad you enjoyed! Thanks for taking the time to listen, but also interact, it’s these discussions I love so much in putting out content
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
I’d trade Connor in a heartbeat. As moneyball says he can be recreated in the aggregate given how terrible he is defensively. A Lambert Ehlers combo would be equal part fun and terrifying for Arniel. Future episode suggestion: draft review with Vern from Twitter.???
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
So would I, it’s the fastest way to get ahead here. LOL, Vern hates my guts, or I’d love to do a show
@___db_._2 ай бұрын
With you guys - D is the priority. Saddens me but I think Dillon priced himself or rather, termed himself out of Wpg this past year. Good for him, bad for us. I can see DeMelo re-signing here but stranger things have happened. I doubt we will be able to UFA a decent RHD Def so it will have to come via trade and this dives in to the prospect pool….perhaps. But let’s talk about 27. I think we are at the fresh start moment for both he and the Jets. Clearly, there’s a disconnect and Ehlers is not able to take the next step to a consistent too line winger. Some may say it’s ice time…perhaps….but I would counter it’s more on Ehlers not being trusted. I thought the Josh Manson goal in the playoffs summarized what the coaching staff sees in Ehlers, or rather, what they are afraid of in giving him the top minutes. He got knocked on his a55 with the puck and then rather than trying to get back up, started stickhandling like he was in a kayak. Pick gets taken away - stretch pass to Manson and goal. That is arguably a turning point in the series. And it was from impromptu kayaking. But it wasn’t just that, 27, imo was terrible in those 5 games in all but one or two shifts and with the commentary I think signals there’s a mutual willingness from both to seek a fresh start. You guys are right though, I don’t think we are going to get a big return. I think the flashes from 27 somewhat colour our glasses rose - the rest of the league doesn’t see him in the same light as most Wpg fans. Your KFC scenario is intriguing and perhaps is a good pre-emptive move but wow, that would be such a huge risk. I don’t think that fits Chevy’s MO. Mind you he traded 29 - I guess we are now seeing why he did it. Mony - I’m with you guys; like him but he’s Paul Stastny-lite. Would be great on short term deals moving up and down the lines but he may have some team giving him term in which he’s long gone. Would be a huge mistake for the Jets to term him but I don’t think they are considering it. In summary, Jets partially solve the D problem with an Ehlers trade to a San Jose or Islanders or Columbus? A team that will wan to deploy him top line and PP and we’ll get a middle-aged solid but not spectacular D in return.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Yeah saddens me about the possibility with Dilly too. Perhaps Salomonsson blossoms and becomes that RHD I think you’re way over analyzing a goal in a singular game in which getting tripper and either trying to maintain control of the puck or trying to get up were ending up in the same outcome. I think there’s a point to be there with “lack of trust”. But it really falls on deaf ears when this is the same org trotting out the worst defensive duo in 81-55 in the entire NHL. The Winnipeg Jets not understanding/not trusting Nik Ehlers to be their game breaker is 100% fully on the Winnipeg Jets misunderstanding what they’ve had and that’s on them. Worst managed and used asset in 2.0 history. Could you imagine if they never let Buff be Buff? Connor’s the move for an org that actually wants to be serious about taking a step forward. And honestly, I don’t see it as a huge risk at all. Typically come out ahead moving guys with 1 tool. He’s everything Laine hates said Laine was being a 1 trick pony. Except this versions softer.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
If that’s the return on Nik Ehlers, have fun missing the playoffs next year, good god.
@___db_._2 ай бұрын
Don’t really mean to rag on Niki. I highlighted that one as an example of his play that must drive the coaching staff nuts. There is no denying he has the skill set to be an elite producer in the NHL. Jets haven’t found it. Maybe it’s personnel. Maybe it’s system? Whatever it is it hasn’t been here and there’s a growing body of work that is beginning to suggest it may never be. But who knows, new coach coming. His salary demands will be ‘nicer’ hopefully.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
@@___db_._ yeah that’s fair, just frustrated this is how it’s gonna end
@tconapauli16302 ай бұрын
EHLERS AND FOR BRANDON CARLO OR A BRADEN SCHNIEDER ORRRR BRANDON MONTOUR JOMO CARLO DILLON DEMELO SAMBERG HENOILA STANLEY MILLER SALSMONSSON CAPO ANCHORS MOOSE
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Nah
@tconapauli16302 ай бұрын
@@TopLyneMedia WELL WAT POTENTIAL DMAN U HAV IN MIND.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
@@tconapauli1630 give it a few weeks for the offseason to develop abit
@tconapauli16302 ай бұрын
OH FORSURE THOSE R JUST SUGGESTIONS NEED COACH FIRST SO THAT THEY A DIRECTION THEY WANTA GO
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
@@tconapauli1630 Agreed bud
@phyllis52562 ай бұрын
Really good synopsis guys.... and of course, you know that the last thing I want is for Nikolaj Ehlers to go anywhere... but if he wants to go, I'll support him wherever he is. Having said that, if he does go, this team will go backward, they'll lose their speediest guy who is so much fun to watch on the ice. And with having lost to a team who are speedy like Avs are, getting rid of our speediest guy is the last thing management should be thinking of. I'm intrigued with the thought of KC and what happens with him when his contract is up for renewal. Likely who is coaching the team will have an impact on deployment of the boys/lines etc. If we get someone in who doesn't put lines according to wishes of the boys, and plays the ones who are strongest together, we could go places. I'll be at the K&R party next week, hope to see you there too. Enjoy your week, Nik and Jordan. :)
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Yeah step 1 definitely is going to be this head coaching search and I imagine it should help us learn more about the direction! Fascinating summer incoming! Unfortunately won’t be making the K&R party this year
@dondawson87002 ай бұрын
There are players like Pionk that I think were Bones picks to be core guys, Appy would be another. One thing that could come out of a coaching search is feedback from people outside the org. on players like these 2 who get top minutes and are secondary pieces at best. One of the things the Avs did was every time Pionk came over the boards so did Mackinnon and we saw the results. The Avs were dumping it in of Pionk's side knowing they could pressure him for a turnover
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Those types of swaying opinions on a new staff seems awfully big to what this summer looks like. This coaching search is pretty big to just settle on Arniel I feel. Yeah Pionk was clearly exposed
@dondawson87002 ай бұрын
Good show.. Hard to disagree with any of your thoughts
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Thankd Don!
@ZeroGhostEight2 ай бұрын
Great breakdowns daily. Nice work to end the shitshow of a season 😂 Good job guys
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Thank you 👍
@___db_._2 ай бұрын
Agree with you guys fully literally on all points. I think we need as a team to try and re-sign Dilly but I’m worried we may be priced out. If so, we have a decent top 4. Mix in Ville and Salo … there’s a nice looking next few years. Pionk and Schmidty- sorry guys that’s just not good enough to be a legit contending or honestly even a playoff team. Looking forward to the forward talk. Have some strong opinions on some and eager to heart your takes. Please prepare for 27. Jets playoff post-mortem: Skill, speed and SIZE won out. A few passengers hurt our apparent depth advantage. But one could argue any team would have a problem with Nate, Makar, Rant playing 25+ a night mixed in with Lehkonen and Nicushkin bringing it.
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Couldn’t agree more with your first paragraph We weren’t nearly as strong on the forwards as I imagine you’d have liked. And imagine we’ll have some differing takes on 27, and that’s ok! Get more into the weeds on how’d we’d move forward up front in tomorrows offseason out look. Forward episode pretty mellow Agreed completely on the playoffs
@Al_Camino772 ай бұрын
Not going to lie I was hoping for a 10 minute rant on Stanley with special guest CMac. Considering that outside of Ville and Solomonsson who is a righty you might be able to get Dillon at 3 years. Who would be the righty that would be able to play in a top 4 if Pionk and Schmidt are moved?
@TopLyneMedia2 ай бұрын
Honestly, still so early to say. We’ll have a much better idea as the playoffs get deeper on some RHD possibilities. They could be in tough..
Пікірлер
Demelo is not that great his numbers are inflated by 44's play. Demelo cannot win battles on the boards. He has NO upside sorry.
Appreciate the comment, it’s okay to be wrong. At 31, who’s expecting upside? We know who he is, and that’s a very good 2nd pairing dman. Both partners have benefitted from each other, but of course 44 is the horse
AGREE ON VILLI N MILLER AS THURD PAIRN, MAYB STAN 7TH BUT PIONK WIT SAMBERG SCARES ME, LIKE THE YOUTH MOVEMENT COULD SEE SALO PUSHN INTO LINEUP IN JAN HOW BOUT RUTGER N AI FOR NECAS ALLTHO LILGREN N ROBERTSON WRKS
I’d do either of those buddy! Samberg-Pionk scares me too LOL
Another fun n enlightening episode..I’m at my cabin most of the summer n haven’t seen a lot of content lately but glad I got updated..I actually thought the lack of action from Chevy was a bad thing but you’ve talked me into this being ok..have a great summer boys
Thank you Gilbert, have a fantastic summer and enjoy the cabin !
Here’s my final thoughts on PoMo. That post game shout out made me want to puke. I can’t prove it but I’d bet he knew exactly what he’d say if he won. That guy is so full shit his eyes are brown. How he gets to skate on Blake Wheelers behaviour during his tenure is inexcusable. It’s basically an open secret now with multiple media personalities notable Jeff Hamilton hinting at it on a recent WST interview. Much like how it was sacrilege to even hint the Chipman was/is heavily involved in ALL hockey ops decisions and is now accepted as truth but never stated. Nik, keep up your great work and thank you for attending my Ted Talk.
Al Camino, I love it man. As I mentioned in there I don’t trust him as far as I can throw em. I look forward to your replies always man!
Chevy is playing hold em with one card.
LOL made me laugh
You also seem to think the jets will be in every deal or signing. This roster won't make the playoffs.
The Jets will be in every signing or trade? And I think this? In this market? Not even close Potentially won’t, don’t see that as a bad thing for a year personally. Rather miss and draft higher than get rolled round 1 year over year
My thoughts on the topics presented: Demelo contract: Totally agree on fair market value on his individual skill set. Slight disagree on hidden value, I think the extra value won't be on his individual contributions, but on his partner most likely playing his best hockey with Demelo on the ice. Elevating his partner is where the Jets get real value out of that 4.9M schmidt buyout: Totally agree, great minds think alike. No notes Draft: On the picks, I think they're largely solid. Freij looks intriguing as a really good skating lefty. He could be a Tanev-type energy guy going full speed, full-time. Dont have much to say on the Fin C, well see how that goes. And with your last pick why not throw a dart at a 6'6" C that's shown some flashes. Rutger: I was route 1 personally, I think adding an impact young player helps the age group we have in Vilardi-Barlow Age group and focuses those primes at similar times. I think there could be more than a roster spot as a sticking point between the 2. If it was just that with all the F contracts ending it would just mean signing in the spring and I would doubt that plan would create the irreparable situation we hearing about. If it is just not being promised a spot then bye, I have no issues with the org taking the stance that roster spots aren't won on the negotiating table. FAs: Dillon will be the only one I'll truly miss but I can see why he wasn't retained. Happy for LB, was never coming back would have preferred he go out east lol. Missing Mony is a massive blessing in disguise that some may not realize for 2-3 years Signings: I think Comrie is a cheap vibes pickup, I have no issues with it, I'd rather pay 800k for vibes than 6M. Kakhonen is there to fight for Helle's backup spot with Comrie. Miller will give Ville a solid D partner on the 3rd pair, he's a trigger guy from the blue line while Ville is a pure distributor, so they could work pretty well. YOUTH: I have so much time for Lambert 2C with a long runway. He had a similar production season as KFC with an arguably worse Moose team and has shown to be a true C given his struggles at Wing from his D-1 year to until he was sent to Seattle. I loved watching him this past year and has made some truly elite plays. Salo could easily be a very good 2RD, skating and a mean streak combo in an RHD is such a good find in the 2nd. I have time for Chibby and Barlow in 2-3 years. 1 or 2 more guys in this age range coming back in a trade working out and the future is real bright
Julien, we’ve been going back and forth elsewhere all day, so not going to spend too much time answering point for point Just wanted to say, thank you for being such a great presence in our comments, and jets socials, always enjoy how much thought you put into these discussion 🫡
@@TopLyneMedia totally understand lol. Happy to keep having meaningful discussions going.
Jets have a new coaching staff, and we are finally giving the prospects a chance, we have alot to look forward to as Jets fans
Agreed
Good pod guys. I agree with you on most of your points. Avoided the Mony grenade (but we were trying so…). Chance for the young guys to show their stuff - yes! Finally. Signings and draft picks this year - solid. However, let’s not kid ourselves, this is a damaged organization that now has virtually no chance at the Cup for at least another 3-4 years, if at all. Wpg is the least favourable destination in the league. We can’t change the Canadian tax structure. We can’t change the Wpg winter. Spare few want to be here….and now it’s prospects. I don’t buy the McG no ice time / Moose argument….I’m with Sean Reynold….McG didn’t want to be here a la CutterG. That one is on management. They are paid to know trends and risks. Jets can’t and shouldn’t have gone to the draft table and drafted a US college kid in the 1st, knowing the reputation of the team. The risk has always been there…we got lucky with KFC so far (but he’s almost assuredly leaving), got a few years from Trouba. Many other examples with Adam Fox leading the way. And let’s not even talk about prospect management… But as you said, plan B is an option I don’t mind going down even though it likely lead to short term pain (lottery in our near future). But I’m looking forward to seeing Perfetti, Lambert, Heinola and Salo and then Chib and Barlow get their trials by fire. Heck, even Stanley….okay I went off the rails there.
The fact we were trying and failed could definitely be looked at as a negative on management. I’m just most excited that we arrived at a place I wanted this org to end up at My confidence is still rather short with where it goes from here, but this situation is ideal. Hard to disagree with yourself on it being a damaged organization with no chance at a cup in that window. I think very few would disagree truly. Yes to all the above on Winnipeg and what it is, and I could see the case for Renny nailing this. At the end, regardless of conclusion, we do arrive at the same spot and that it’s this org got themselves into this pickle and should’ve known better, I put that on them more than anyone. It’s frustrating. Plan B was always the plan in Winnipeg that gives the Jets a long term *chance*, if could fail. But Plan A… was org suicide. 1st round playoff ceiling gradually drifting into an old, expensive rebuild with no real assets. We avoided that, and for that, I’m thankful
Great show Nik and Brady.... in answer to your question about Slafkovsky, he's getting 7.6m x 8 years = 60.8m. Really good thoughts all around. I support going with a youth movement, with guidance by the vets on the team. I think that's the key to success for this team.
Thanks Phyllis! Also thanks for the correction! I really think it’ll work itself out even if it wasn’t Plan A. I was never big on Plan A
I don't think this 🤔 team will go to far if they don't add the pieces that are desperately needed 😊😊
We shall see! ☺️
WAT IM FIRED LOL SAW DA COMMENT COULDN REACT SOOO IM HERE TO LISTEN N HARASS U LOL SOOO IM JUS STARTN SHO N WILL CHIME IN AGAIN😂
NOT SURE WAT UP WIT U BUT HOPE THINGS R BETTER N GOOD GD SHOW
@@tconapauli1630thanks man, been dealing with something personal. Starting to come around. Thanks for listening
So just to add to your Paul Maurice comment. Jeff Hamilton essentially admitted on WST in reference to a Liane return that Blake Wheeler was basically an asshole at best and a bully at worst. How in the hell can an NHL coach allow that to happen to a number 2 overall pick and likely others? A pick that they won a lottery and moved 8 spots to get. I’ve posted on other platforms and the reply is usually Pomo wanted to change it but Chevy wouldn’t. 😅 that post game interview made me want to puke.
The development issues also include putting Chisholm and Kovacevic on waivers with little to no attempt to play them in the NHL, both are full time NHLers, instead they keep their 8 yr project Logan Stanley who has never shown even close to the talent Jets management thinks he has. As for Bones being the culture champion, maybe the first year, but his handling of the entire line up in the second half of the year was peewee league stuff at best, and I believe they asked him to retire, as they now need to rebuild the culture again. 2 steps forward then a whole bunch backwards
Certainly feels that way, doesn’t it.
I think the biggest difference in what you think needs to be done with the Jets is how you view this team: - 1) looks at last year and thinks that was a great year we are close we need to go for it. 2) Looks at the Jets playoff performance and how the teams that made deep runs have looked, the roster problems and say we are not even close. Jets I believe incorrectly view themselves as a contender and you have to compete for a role because we are a good team. This organization is delusional they have way overestimated how good this team is based on regular season performance. I am tired of hearing about this is a good team based on the regular season this team won last year because they are deeper than most teams in the league not because they have elite talent. Fans and media memebers point to measuring stick games against The Panthers, Rangers, Avalanche, Stars, etc. Newsflash these teams are elite playoff contenders with elite talent they do not care about playing the Winnipeg Jets on a random friday night in November or January they are playing the regular season to get to the playoffs and try to win a cup it means nothing. The Rutger McGroarty situation stems from a team that always bases it decisions on the short term and winning now. It is basically managerial malpractice you have to a vison and bechmarks for a team 3, 5, 10 years down the line and not to view McGroarty as an essential piece in this team future is just incompetence. Would it have been that difficult to make a concession to a key player in your future plans and say we are guaranteeing you 20 games in the NHL to start next year and we will re-evaluate after those 20 games. As an organzitaion you have to adapt or die, and after the Cutter Gauthier situation last year teams were on notice that this was an option players are now going to use. This generation of players is not going to tolerate being maniputlated and strung along by teams. The Jets are a decade behind and still suffer from the idea that they hold all the cards. Wake up players have all the power and it's not like they haven't dealt with situations like Trouba and PLD, the result they had to capitulate. The Jets always operate from the most conservative and safe route - the problem with this is that it is like the line from the move Rounders - "You can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle. But you can’t win much either." At some point you have to be agressive and truly go for it and playing young players is a risk but one you have to take to advance the team. Long story short the Jets short-sighted, rigid management style has cost this team arguably its most important and valuable player. It appeaers Rick Bowness had one more present for the Jet's fans and organization setting an nuclear bomb and blowing up the current and future roster because of his stubborn deployment and roster management decisions. If you detach yourself and look at this from Rutger McGroarty's view why would want to play for this organization based on how all the prospects on this team have been treated and the lack of vision that is rampant at this point. Sorry for the long winded rant but this is frustrating and should never have got to this point.
No need to apologize for the rant, loved to read it all and nice to hear from people who care so much/see things very similar to myself!
Same 'development' plan as Bergevin & the Chicago tree. Sorry
Just started listening, the defaulting to playing vets who we know have serious faults over young players who might have serious faults is assanine. Now at the development and roster construction, how you laid it out it seems like they have a specific kind of roster they want to build and try and make that work rather than seeing their collection of players and thinking “how do we maximize what we have”.
How long before noted hockey guy Mark Chipman takes some blame. That podcast episode could be a banger. Probably best saved until the rebuild in 2 years.
What an absolute disaster. There is an above average chance this team misses the playoffs if a few things don’t go exactly to plan. This could be Calgary 2.0
It could end up there with a bad summer..
The defense really needs some rough and tough defensemen😊
I'm wondering why ehlers wants out because he's the fastest player and they never give him ice time 😮
I was 50 / 50 on the Arniel hiring, but do feel better now that they are bringing in 2 new assists and the acknowledgment that analytics need to be a bigger part of the go forward plan. I was glad to hear of the potential PIONK landing spots. As much as we need a 2C, we need to revamp the right side of the D even more, if we go to camp with Pionk and Schmidt as 2 of the right side guys, it will be another lost season. The Avs really pressured Pionk and he was a turn over machine.
Yeah he definitely had a comforting PR day, day 1. We’ll see where it all leads. If Pionk is back next year, we know where this season ends, it’s really that simple for me. He can single handedly sink a team, especially on org that sees him for something he is not
I don't think Jets fans realize how much this roster needs to be changed / restructured. This team is a lot older than most people realize with a lot of the core pieces reaching 30 years old and on the downhill side of their peak performance curve. Scheifele is 31 and has probably 2 more years as a low-end 1c ideally he is your 2c. Connor is 27 and with 2 years remaining on his contract - if you give him another contract it will be in his year 30 season. If in the next 2 years he has an outlier 50 goal or more season that contract is 11 million plus with probably 6 years or more. If the Jets sign him that has the potential to look like a massive mistake for 3 years or more. That also creates a situation where you have a large amount of cap space tied up in 3 players 30+. Everyone is talking about dealing Ehlers but Connor is the trade piece that can bring a big return and get the age balance more in line. Appleton, Iafallo, and Gustafsson are roster cloggers competent NHL bottom six players with high floors but low ceilings that should not be blocking Chibrikov, Lambert, or Barron from having roster spots or moving up in the line structure. Appleton and Gustafsson in particular could be appealing as throw ins for a team that has a salary cap crunch say like Carolina. Next year you potentially have Perfetti (if he signs a 2 year bridge deal), Vilardi, Samberg and Barron all up for contracts. So the cap structure is only going to get more complicated. Finally the Defence is a mess with the players currently signed you basically have 2 viable pieces in Morrisey and Samberg. Ideally you bring back Dillon and DeMelo, but DeMelo is the key you can put him on the top pair and if you are able to bring in an upgrade for the first pair you can move him down to the second pair. You have to get both Heinola and Salomonsson on the club to start the year, your defence has the same issues with age as the forward group. Schmidt and Pionk contracts are both anchors and you would want to move both but if I have to choose one to move on from it is Pionk. Schmidt can be a 3rd pair / 7th defender. The common misconception is that your roster needs to be complete by the first game of the year, Jets need to put as much youth on the roster to start the year as possible and then re-evaluate. There will be deals and bargains that come available during the season and if something isn't working be ready to pounce.
I don’t think it’s talked about nearly enough. This core is past its best before date, and in their decline phase with nothing to show. Getting older and continuing to try and do something that won’t happen, will only kill this org for the next half decade to decade. They NEED to balance this roster with youth. And everyone outside TNSE who understands the league economics and roster building should realize KFC this summer is the guy to move. The scheifele thing is arguably the biggest “problem” cause he’s a 2C on a cup contender making $8.5M rest of his career now. You absolutely need a high end 2C, and preferably one with potential to be a 1C. At worst. Agreed wholeheartedly on the roster cloggers. There’s no reason an Iaffalo should be back for example. That $4M is significantly better used elsewhere. Appleton as well, but they love him more than any org. Agreed on the D convo top to bottom. Truly what I’m most fascinated by this summer personally. And yuppppp, you can give the kids a run for the first 3/4 and upgrade spots at the deadline. They need to swing for youth and upside. Not double down on this aging product. I think it’s a pretty safe “under” on them repeating this years “success” and taking another step this coming year. Focus on years 2-4 from here
I'm wondering why they signed 55 when you look at his age 🤔 😳 😕
The Cirelli idea threw me for a loop lol. Ideally, you do keep Perfetti as the Jets do have a good group of prospects in a similar age range that could develop into the next core. Agree that KC is the piece to deal in an ideal world, his goalscoring ability should drive up the price higher relative to impact than what you will get with Ehlers. I like Schneider as a target but Zegras has me intrigued after hearing the pod. Keep up the great work guys.
I knew that one was gonna be “out there” for the listeners, was holding that one tight to the vest until podcast LOL Agreed in your ideal approaches for sure. And yeah, it’s very obvious to any outside onlooker who understands the league economy KC is the move, but not the Winnipeg way unfortunately. Thank you 🙏
Based on what Commodore said, Arniel would have had to grow by leaps and bounds to avoid a repeat. Proof will be in the playoffs.
We shall see. Clean slate for me, gotta judge him on his work here now, definitely reasons to be concerned, hope he has grown leaps and bounds and at least has talked so far (actions will tell more, always) like someone self reflective and accountable. We shall see
Awesome show, Nik... I always enjoy Brandon's takes when he makes an appearance on WST and it was a pleasure to hear the two of you chopping it up on all things Jets.
Thanks Phyllis! Really enjoyed recording this one! Glad you enjoyed it!
Great thoughts, Nik.... and one more thing not mentioned: Brad Lauer being let go... that's progress as well. So we'll have new PP and PK coaches. One thing that struck me that Arnie mentioned in his presser was that he had plans for every single Jets player as part of his interview. He's had the inside track as to how the boys play and from what I'm hearing, the team supports having him there as head coach. Which means we don't need to wait 1-2 years for some of them to buy into a new coach's system, like some of them did for Coach Bowness. I think we're in good hands with Arnie and I'll give him some time to acclimitize to being there in the driver's seat. Next thing up, who do we want to see as Associate coach and PP/PK coach. Something to keep in mind with analytics, we seem to have two camps of thought in Jets fans... some have no tolerance for looking at analytics and strictly rely on the "eye test" and others (like me and you) love to see the numbers side of things. So he's getting pushback from both sides of fans, no matter which direction he goes. My hope is he can tune out the noise and do a well balanced approach to every game once the season starts, be quick to react when games are not flowing and that he will build a solid plan to bring in our kids once they are ready to play.
Yes I totally missed the Brad Lauer point which was good to hear yesterday. Really curious who they bring in to fill those roles. It was a good idea from a PR standpoint for the Arniel brand, and he touched on slot of key things, as you’ve very eloquently highlighted above that could/should have meaningful impacts Clean slate for me, he’ll be judged on how he does, whether I loved the process the upper management took to arrive there or not!
The interview process at this point sounds like window dressing more so than due dilligence. Unfortunately, this team seems to think they are a contender that just needs to get over the top but in reality they are 5 steps into their journey up the hill. You would think that the Jets as a small market team with a lot of inhernt disadvantages would have been looking for any edge they could get (analytics) to compete with the advantages of the bigger market teams. As I have said before the other problem you will have with True North is they are terrified of a rebuild or not being competitive , this almost assures you of the veteran win now model which is not really coducive to give young players a large role they can grow into. This team seems to be in perpetual run it back mode which would be understandable if you made it to a coference final but not after two first round exits where you did not even look competitive.
Rewicki and I went off on the process in the podcast dropping tmrw. It was definitely a facade. I’m really worried they over compensate the wrong direction because of this belief, and it’s going to set us back in so many ways for a while to come. Not rebuilding last year will forever be a whiff as far as cup aspirations go. The business itself won’t say it out loud, but I imagine they are content with 3 playoff home games a year. Sad stuff
I missed it but was Chipper in attendance?
He wasn’t at the podium, no idea about in the room
@@TopLyneMedia I was worried that he was at the podium again a la the Maurice extension in 2019.
2 points: 1. The fact that Arniel wasn’t even looked at by any other organization tells you everything you need to know about this hire. The biggest concern I have about Arniel is, since he wasn’t being sought by any other org, he’ll probably be looking to be as successful as possible because he knows if he isn’t successful here, his HC dreams are dead. Which means he’s not going to want to have rookies in the lineup because he’s going to feel like he can’t deal with their mistakes. I’d say you might see rookies in the lineup for the first 10-20ish games, then he’ll fall back on the vets because he’ll feel the pressure to be successful which, based on the vets we have, also probably won’t work. If we’re lucky, we’ll get swept in the first round and everyone will say that Arniel’s first year as coach was a rousing success, when really it’ll just be a case of us digging ourselves deeper into the hole we are already in right now. 2. This team abandoned the ‘draft and develop’ model at the first whiff of success, and has failed to see the need to go back to it ever since. Now they’re stuck in this perpetual loop of chasing waterfalls, hoping that they can recreate the magic of 2018, without realizing that they no longer have the horses.
I think you couldn’t me more accurate on Point 1, and we will continue to push on that. I have the exact same fears you do 2. It is so weird that they abandoned it despite it leading to their best season. I’ll never understand that
Great points. And completely true and rarely discussed by the media in this town.
This kinda of happened in the fabled youth season of 16-17. After scratching Thorburn and Stuart early in the year they ended up sending Petan, Connor back down because they weren’t performing despite being stapled to terrible line-mates. And Trouba’s agent basically insinuated because being stapled to Stuart playing 3rd pair minutes for 3 years was costing him money as a reason he held out.
He had a good enough press conference to get me to believe in his plan. Now Let’s see that plan on action.
Actions > words for sure But comforting conference no doubt about it
So, i personally have to remain true to my morals and ethics when I say i HATE the Vegas model. I do value loyalty. Id rather win a cup loyal then disloyalty like vegas. But that said. Id like to win a cup vs not winning at all 😂 people arent all that excited. Ill just take the opposite view for now... Remember after Tampa got run out of the first round by Columbus and people wanted coop fired, and it was time to change shit in Tampa... (Beyond GM leaving to go to Detroit...) I really hope thats sorta similar to this. I am certainly not in the camp that legit ANYBODY else would have been a better option.. so ill wait and see for judgement. Im skeptical if the players indeed WANT this hire tho. Its likely because Arnie has played good coach. What happens now when he needs to play bad?
I’m sorry, comparing Scott Arniel to Jon Cooper is one of the most insane reaches I’ve seen to date 😅
The last paragraph is a huge thing not many are considering
Didn’t they hire Chevy, Zinger and Noel without interviewing anyone? If at first you don’t succeed….
They love their model more than anyone else it seems
Bold prediction…22/17/62 playing 20 minutes a night. Can’t wait! What could possibly go wrong? Why do i have a feeling this is going to blow up in Chippers face? What kind of leash does he get?
It’s Chipman, he’s likely got a 3 year contract with a 2 year extension already lined up.
Yay.😐 I’m so excited.😐 I don’t know what to do with myself.😐 That’ll put bums in seats. 😐
Thrilling eh
@@TopLyneMedia I just want to see how this is going to affect season ticket sales.
So watched this again and I have convinced myself that trading Connor is the easiest way to get the ship righted. Someone will way over pay for that guy. That and realizing Adam Lowry is not a poor man’s Bergeron.
It’s really the one asset you can move and “win a deal” with. Rather trade a year too early than a year too late…
Good Show, lots of ground covered. I agree the D needs to be the focus this off season Demelo is the priority to sign, Ville has to be allowed to play so the team can see what they have ( we can't lose another D prospect to waivers, who was never given a chance) We have to trade for a top 4 RHD, probably the cost of a rooster player or top prospect Use next season to give some of the other prospects actual auditions of 10 game stretches' to see if they are ready or need more seasoning or don't fit at all, not just a game here or game there I like watching 27 as much as anyone, when he is going. Teams ( Avs are the most recent example )have figured it out that if you Gap up on him and don't let him get going with a head of steam he is a lot less effective, he also becomes very frustrated and becomes even less effective. That's my feel on why he is a no show in the playoffs PS: As I watch the playoffs and see the impact Lafreniere is having, you only have to go back to the 2023 season where he was struggling, people were calling him a bust, and there were numerous trade rumors. instead Laviolette and the coaches kept him the line up and helped him get his confidence up and game going, and see the results. The Jets did the exact opposite with Perfetti, for that reason alone I am glad Bones is gone
Thank you Don! Always try and dive into as many angles as possible, glad we covered a lot of ground you were looking for! Demelo definitely #1 priority HAVE to give Ville runway next year, or he’ll be the singular prospect asset they burned the hardest if they lost him for nothing. They really should approach next year with that in mind There definitely could be a lot of validity to the Ehlers take there! Man… LaF has really figured it out and been a treat to watch. I stare over at Dallas for the same reasons this playoff run as well
I think the coaching hire will tell you everything you need to know about how the off-season is going to go. If they decide to go with Scott Anriel it will be only the moves that are required and small tweaks but not he massive changes that really need to happen. Speaking of Arniel, I feel like he is getting a free pass because of the limited success he had early with Bowness out. If you dig just a little deeper and not count overtime loses as it's own category his record the two times Bowness was out was 10 - 7 and the record against teams that made the playoffs was 3 -5. Combine that with a penalty kill that was ineffective all year doesn't paint the picture of someone who can make the necessary in game or post game adjustments to be a difference maker or a step up from what Rick Bowness was able to accomplish. I truly believe that Bowness changed the culture , buy-in and effort level of the team but they succeded because of who they are as players and not anything tactically or strategically that the coaching staff did. All this points to hiring a coach that can build on what Bowness established so someone who can maintain the culture, effort and buy-in levels but can make in game and post game adjustments as well as be able to incorporate tools at their disposal like analytics. Arniel is like playing blackjack and staying on 15 when the dealer has a face card - you can win with that strategy but statistically you will lose in the long run especially if the ultimate goal is a long playoff run.
Yeah this coaching hire feels pretty big this summer. And there’s some quality options out there. Going to Arniel route will be looked at as “safe”. But it may be the biggest risk on the market…..
Once again I enjoyed listening to both of your thoughts..hoping Chevy can make the improvements necessary to win another 50 n be a real threat next season
Here’s to hoping! Big offseason ahead
Pionk is this year's Wheeler. If he's still here next year, I'm probably not investing time because you know it's not going anywhere
100%
I think nik goes just because why in the world would be consider staying. And there even before the fact that the org definitely isn't smart enough to understand the they have NO ONE who sits what he does for us😂
Yeah this move has a very real chance of turning things sideways
I really like the idea of a stop-gap year, letting the young guys ferment and ready to contribute on ELCs. Some combination of Lambert, Chibrikov, Rutger, Salo, and Ville will work and contribute on really cheap contracts. There are too many promising names there for none of them to work out. Odds are there are 1 or 2 that don't work and they are still young enough to carry value to trade for good current help. Moving off a Vet Forward makes sense for this, not just the big two I'll mention in a bit, but maybe another as well. While my preference would be for Appleton, just had a career year and I doubt he makes this the new norm, I feel like Iafallo would be the more likely culprit just seemed like one of the last guy to be considered when constructing lines. I would much prefer the 81 trade over the 27 trade. There are player traits/skills that make GMs put blinders on and overpay. 81's pure goalscoring could drive up the price like how PLD having big, top-6 center potential did for his return. What makes Ehlers effective has historically been undervalued so the odds of winning that trade in terms of replacing his impact are much lower. Personally, on the D end I think Salo at least starts in the AHL. He'll be turning 20 in August right before training camp and has little experience on the NA ice from what I remember. I think he very well get up to the NHL at some point, our blue line is unlikely to be as injury-free as it was last year and he is a quality RHD. I think the transition will happen much faster if he gets 25 minutes a night with the moose and he can join full-time around Christmas/New Year's. The actual structure of the D is so up in the air projecting anything concrete is damn near impossible. Only for sures are Morrissey, Samberg, Ville, 1 of Pionk/Schmidt, and eventually Salo sometime in the next calendar year. I really enjoyed the "Breif Week" and am excited to see how this all shakes out over the summer.
I really think a “bridge year” is the best way for this org to try and win in the first half of those 37/55 deals, and I think you can still sneak a playoff round in with it. All those guys won’t necessarily hit, but I don’t see like with what you’re saying why at least 1-2 won’t. Couldn’t agree more with your breakdown on 81 vs 27 and how the league tends to value both skill sets. This is where smart teams make the hard choice to better the franchise. Yeah, it’s going to take a lot of time for the full D picture to come into play right now. Just can go so many ways as of today! Thanks for checking them all out and we are glad you enjoyed! Thanks for taking the time to listen, but also interact, it’s these discussions I love so much in putting out content
I’d trade Connor in a heartbeat. As moneyball says he can be recreated in the aggregate given how terrible he is defensively. A Lambert Ehlers combo would be equal part fun and terrifying for Arniel. Future episode suggestion: draft review with Vern from Twitter.???
So would I, it’s the fastest way to get ahead here. LOL, Vern hates my guts, or I’d love to do a show
With you guys - D is the priority. Saddens me but I think Dillon priced himself or rather, termed himself out of Wpg this past year. Good for him, bad for us. I can see DeMelo re-signing here but stranger things have happened. I doubt we will be able to UFA a decent RHD Def so it will have to come via trade and this dives in to the prospect pool….perhaps. But let’s talk about 27. I think we are at the fresh start moment for both he and the Jets. Clearly, there’s a disconnect and Ehlers is not able to take the next step to a consistent too line winger. Some may say it’s ice time…perhaps….but I would counter it’s more on Ehlers not being trusted. I thought the Josh Manson goal in the playoffs summarized what the coaching staff sees in Ehlers, or rather, what they are afraid of in giving him the top minutes. He got knocked on his a55 with the puck and then rather than trying to get back up, started stickhandling like he was in a kayak. Pick gets taken away - stretch pass to Manson and goal. That is arguably a turning point in the series. And it was from impromptu kayaking. But it wasn’t just that, 27, imo was terrible in those 5 games in all but one or two shifts and with the commentary I think signals there’s a mutual willingness from both to seek a fresh start. You guys are right though, I don’t think we are going to get a big return. I think the flashes from 27 somewhat colour our glasses rose - the rest of the league doesn’t see him in the same light as most Wpg fans. Your KFC scenario is intriguing and perhaps is a good pre-emptive move but wow, that would be such a huge risk. I don’t think that fits Chevy’s MO. Mind you he traded 29 - I guess we are now seeing why he did it. Mony - I’m with you guys; like him but he’s Paul Stastny-lite. Would be great on short term deals moving up and down the lines but he may have some team giving him term in which he’s long gone. Would be a huge mistake for the Jets to term him but I don’t think they are considering it. In summary, Jets partially solve the D problem with an Ehlers trade to a San Jose or Islanders or Columbus? A team that will wan to deploy him top line and PP and we’ll get a middle-aged solid but not spectacular D in return.
Yeah saddens me about the possibility with Dilly too. Perhaps Salomonsson blossoms and becomes that RHD I think you’re way over analyzing a goal in a singular game in which getting tripper and either trying to maintain control of the puck or trying to get up were ending up in the same outcome. I think there’s a point to be there with “lack of trust”. But it really falls on deaf ears when this is the same org trotting out the worst defensive duo in 81-55 in the entire NHL. The Winnipeg Jets not understanding/not trusting Nik Ehlers to be their game breaker is 100% fully on the Winnipeg Jets misunderstanding what they’ve had and that’s on them. Worst managed and used asset in 2.0 history. Could you imagine if they never let Buff be Buff? Connor’s the move for an org that actually wants to be serious about taking a step forward. And honestly, I don’t see it as a huge risk at all. Typically come out ahead moving guys with 1 tool. He’s everything Laine hates said Laine was being a 1 trick pony. Except this versions softer.
If that’s the return on Nik Ehlers, have fun missing the playoffs next year, good god.
Don’t really mean to rag on Niki. I highlighted that one as an example of his play that must drive the coaching staff nuts. There is no denying he has the skill set to be an elite producer in the NHL. Jets haven’t found it. Maybe it’s personnel. Maybe it’s system? Whatever it is it hasn’t been here and there’s a growing body of work that is beginning to suggest it may never be. But who knows, new coach coming. His salary demands will be ‘nicer’ hopefully.
@@___db_._ yeah that’s fair, just frustrated this is how it’s gonna end
EHLERS AND FOR BRANDON CARLO OR A BRADEN SCHNIEDER ORRRR BRANDON MONTOUR JOMO CARLO DILLON DEMELO SAMBERG HENOILA STANLEY MILLER SALSMONSSON CAPO ANCHORS MOOSE
Nah
@@TopLyneMedia WELL WAT POTENTIAL DMAN U HAV IN MIND.
@@tconapauli1630 give it a few weeks for the offseason to develop abit
OH FORSURE THOSE R JUST SUGGESTIONS NEED COACH FIRST SO THAT THEY A DIRECTION THEY WANTA GO
@@tconapauli1630 Agreed bud
Really good synopsis guys.... and of course, you know that the last thing I want is for Nikolaj Ehlers to go anywhere... but if he wants to go, I'll support him wherever he is. Having said that, if he does go, this team will go backward, they'll lose their speediest guy who is so much fun to watch on the ice. And with having lost to a team who are speedy like Avs are, getting rid of our speediest guy is the last thing management should be thinking of. I'm intrigued with the thought of KC and what happens with him when his contract is up for renewal. Likely who is coaching the team will have an impact on deployment of the boys/lines etc. If we get someone in who doesn't put lines according to wishes of the boys, and plays the ones who are strongest together, we could go places. I'll be at the K&R party next week, hope to see you there too. Enjoy your week, Nik and Jordan. :)
Yeah step 1 definitely is going to be this head coaching search and I imagine it should help us learn more about the direction! Fascinating summer incoming! Unfortunately won’t be making the K&R party this year
There are players like Pionk that I think were Bones picks to be core guys, Appy would be another. One thing that could come out of a coaching search is feedback from people outside the org. on players like these 2 who get top minutes and are secondary pieces at best. One of the things the Avs did was every time Pionk came over the boards so did Mackinnon and we saw the results. The Avs were dumping it in of Pionk's side knowing they could pressure him for a turnover
Those types of swaying opinions on a new staff seems awfully big to what this summer looks like. This coaching search is pretty big to just settle on Arniel I feel. Yeah Pionk was clearly exposed
Good show.. Hard to disagree with any of your thoughts
Thankd Don!
Great breakdowns daily. Nice work to end the shitshow of a season 😂 Good job guys
Thank you 👍
Agree with you guys fully literally on all points. I think we need as a team to try and re-sign Dilly but I’m worried we may be priced out. If so, we have a decent top 4. Mix in Ville and Salo … there’s a nice looking next few years. Pionk and Schmidty- sorry guys that’s just not good enough to be a legit contending or honestly even a playoff team. Looking forward to the forward talk. Have some strong opinions on some and eager to heart your takes. Please prepare for 27. Jets playoff post-mortem: Skill, speed and SIZE won out. A few passengers hurt our apparent depth advantage. But one could argue any team would have a problem with Nate, Makar, Rant playing 25+ a night mixed in with Lehkonen and Nicushkin bringing it.
Couldn’t agree more with your first paragraph We weren’t nearly as strong on the forwards as I imagine you’d have liked. And imagine we’ll have some differing takes on 27, and that’s ok! Get more into the weeds on how’d we’d move forward up front in tomorrows offseason out look. Forward episode pretty mellow Agreed completely on the playoffs
Not going to lie I was hoping for a 10 minute rant on Stanley with special guest CMac. Considering that outside of Ville and Solomonsson who is a righty you might be able to get Dillon at 3 years. Who would be the righty that would be able to play in a top 4 if Pionk and Schmidt are moved?
Honestly, still so early to say. We’ll have a much better idea as the playoffs get deeper on some RHD possibilities. They could be in tough..